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Daily Market Outlook By PYX Markets
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[QUOTE="PYX Markets London, post: 113682, member: 38730"] [b]Daily Market Outlook 4th November [/b] [img]https://scontent-fra3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/14570478_1179904372071111_6911470945801757702_n.jpg?oh=9845bf4fa52573c04cc18bf21e2e3939&oe=58875384[/img] Asian shares slipped on Friday and the dollar nursed losses in a week marked by growing uncertainty about the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. Investors have been unnerved in recent days by signs that the presidential race between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump may be tightening just days before Tuesday's vote. That anxiety has rippled across global financial markets as investors ponder hedging the possible ramifications of a Trump presidency, overshadowing other events including Friday's U.S. employment report for October. According to the latest Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project, Clinton, who is seen as the status quo candidate by markets, maintained her narrow lead over Trump. But several swing states that the Republican challenger must win shifted from favoring Clinton to toss-ups, offering Trump a possible route to victory. Trump, a political novice, has campaigned to clamp down on immigration, rethink trade relations and slap high tariffs on imported goods. Some fear his election would pose risks for global trade and growth. The pound was a stand-out performer overnight, rising to a nearly one-month high of on Thursday after a British court ruled that the government needs parliamentary approval to start the process of leaving the European Union. That could potentially delay Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit plans. The pound also got a boost from the Bank of England, which scrapped its plan to cut interest rates and ramped up its forecasts for growth. U.S. employers likely stepped up hiring in October and boosted wages for workers, which could effectively seal the case for a December interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve. The nonfarm payrolls report due later Friday is expected to show employers added 175,000 jobs in October, according to the median estimate of 106 economists polled by Reuters. U.S. data on Thursday showed that services industry activity cooled last month amid a slowdown in new orders and hiring, while planned job cuts by U.S.-based employers dropped 31 percent to a five-month low. That underscored the labor market's healthy fundamentals, though more Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week. The report will come on the heels of data last week showing acceleration in economic growth in the third quarter. But economists see little impact from the report on an increasingly bitter and divisive campaign. The Fed on Wednesday left interest rates unchanged but said its monetary policy-setting committee "judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has continued to strengthen." It lifted its benchmark overnight interest rate last December for the first time in nearly a decade. Employment growth so far this year has averaged 178,000 jobs per month, down from an average gain of 229,000 per month in 2015. Still, the monthly job gains are more than enough to absorb new entrants into the labor market. Fed Chair Janet Yellen has said the economy needs to create just under 100,000 jobs a month to keep up with growth in the work-age population. The prospects of an interest rate hike next month could also be bolstered by an anticipated solid rise in wages. Average hourly earnings are expected to have increased 0.3 percent in October after advancing 0.2 percent in September. Oil prices edged up on Friday, stabilizing after five straight days of falls triggered by a surge in U.S. crude inventories and doubts over the ability of producers to coordinate output cuts. Despite the slight increases, traders said sentiment was bearish. Brent fell for the past five straight trading sessions and is down over 13 percent since its recent peak in mid-October. Analysts said markets were also weighed down by traders pulling out money from futures ahead of the U.S. presidential elections, which are seen as a risk to markets. Beyond concerns ahead of the elections, traders said oil fundamentals were also weak, with U.S. crude stocks surging, demand growth low, and doubts that the OPEC and non-OPEC producer Russia can agree on a meaningful output cut this month. U.S. crude oil stockpiles soared more than 14 million barrels last week, the largest weekly build since the U.S. Energy Department started keeping records in 1982, highlighting that a global fuel supply overhang is far from over. While oil production remains near records and inventories are high, British bank Barclays said demand growth was timid."Q3 16 demand growth rate is less than one-third that of the same quarter last year," Barclays bank said in a note to clients, estimating last quarter's growth below 1 million bpd. It said consumption increases for the last quarter of the year would not be much higher, before averaging 1.3 million bpd in 2017. [/QUOTE]
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