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Daily Market Outlook By PYX Markets
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[QUOTE="PYX Markets London, post: 112033, member: 38730"] [b]Daily Market Outlook 17th October [/b] [img]https://scontent-amt2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/13938553_118457278597764_4706199327588223406_n.jpg?oh=4cb4000aa052d5b9cf8c6e211c4ac665&oe=581DD5BC[/img] Asian shares fell on Monday while the dollar held firm near seven-month high against a basket of major currencies after comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen boosted long-dated U.S. bond yields. Yellen said on Friday the Fed may need to run a "high-pressure" economy in order to reverse damage from the global financial crisis that depressed output. Her remarks were not addressing immediate policy concerns directly and did not change prevailing view that the Fed is likely to raise interest rates in December. There is a reason for investors to be concerned about inflation as recovery in oil prices has lifted inflation in some countries. The U.S. producer price index for final demand increased 0.3 percent last month. In the 12 months through September, the PPI jumped 0.7 percent, the biggest increase since December 2014. On Friday, China also reported higher than-expected inflation in September for consumers and producers alike, with producer prices rising for the first time since January 2012. In the US, a gauge of investors' inflation expectations, the breakeven inflation rate based on inflation-linked bonds, rose to its highest level in about five months. Chinese economic data on Wednesday, including third-quarter GDP, will be a key focus of this week. China's economy likely grew by a steady 6.7 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, the same pace as in the previous quarter, as increased government spending and a property boom offset stubbornly weak exports, according to a Reuters poll of 58 economists. But the expected rate of expansion would still be near the weakest since the global crisis, and analysts are increasingly worried that growth is becoming too reliant on government spending, ballooning debt levels and a housing market that is showing signs of overheating. The yen weakened on Monday in Asia after remarks from the central bank governor updating on economic growth and inflation. BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the economy is on a likely moderate expanding trend with core consumer prices slightly negative to flat, adding that the central bank will take further action to boost growth if needed. This week will see the European Central Bank’s post policy meeting press conference on Thursday amid speculation over whether it will further expand its stimulus program in the face of sluggish growth and inflation. Also on the watchlist are Chinese figures on third quarter GDP, due for release on Wednesday, with the rate of growth expected to ease again. On Monday, the euro zone is to publish revised data on inflation and the U.S. will report industrial production and manufacturing activity in the New York region. Dollar gained ground on Friday as solid data on U.S. retail sales and producer prices bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates in the coming months. U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in September after declining 0.2% the previous month, data from the Commerce Department showed Friday. Another report showing that U.S. producer prices picked up broadly last month added to the view that the economy is on a strong enough footing for a rate hike by the Fed before the year’s end. The reports came after the minutes of the Fed’s September meeting, published on Wednesday, showed several officials believed it would be appropriate to raise interest rates "relatively soon" if the economy continued to improve. The Fed’s next meeting is in November, but a rate hike ahead of the presidential election is seen as unlikely. Expectations for higher rates typically boost the dollar by making it more attractive to yield seeking investors. Crude oil prices held weaker in Asia on Monday as investors noted more drilling activity in the U.S. and other downbeat supply signals from top producers. Last week, oil futures slipped on Friday, but still scored their fourth weekly gain in a row as market players awaited details of a planned output cut by the OPEC. The OPEC reached an agreement to limit production to a range of 32.5 million to 33.0 million barrels per day in talks held on the sidelines of an energy conference in Algeria late last month. However, market analysts remained skeptical of the deal, pondering how such a plan would be implemented. The 14-member oil group said it won’t finalize details or complete its production agreement until the group’s next official meeting in Vienna on November 30. Brent gave back some gains after OPEC's monthly report published Wednesday revealed that its oil production rose in September to the highest level in eight years. The producer cartel pumped 33.39 million barrels per day last month, up 220,000 barrels per day from August. Market players continued to focus on U.S. drilling prospects, amid indications of an ongoing recovery in drilling activity. Oilfield services provider Baker Hughes said late Friday that the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. last week rose by 4 to 432, marking the 15th increase in 16 weeks. Some analysts have warned that the recent rally in prices could be self-defeating, as it encourages U.S. shale producers to drill more, underlining concerns over a global supply glut. Weekly government data showing sizable drawdowns in domestic gasoline and distillate stockpiles, which include heating oil, provided support, although inventories of crude oil rose for the first time in six weeks, according to the U.S. EIA [/QUOTE]
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