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Daily Market Outlook By PYX Markets
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[QUOTE="PYX Markets London, post: 109976, member: 38730"] [b]Daily Market Outlook 19th September [/b] [img]https://scontent-amt2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/13938553_118457278597764_4706199327588223406_n.jpg?oh=4cb4000aa052d5b9cf8c6e211c4ac665&oe=581DD5BC[/img] Asian shares advanced on Monday ahead of central bank meetings in the United States and Japan this week, while oil prices bounced on talk of an OPEC deal on output and reports of fighting around Libyan oil ports. Bombings in New York City and New Jersey and a stabbing at a Minnesota shopping mall added to a general air of risk aversion. While U.S. officials are investigating the attacks as potential "acts of terrorism," they stopped short of characterizing the motivation behind any of them until more evidence is uncovered. Investors are counting down to the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meeting Sept. 20-21, with chair Janet Yellen holding a news conference on Wednesday. A surprisingly large rise in U.S. consumer price inflation reported on Friday seemed to add to the case for a hike and pushed the dollar higher. Assuming no move on policy, the focus will be on the FOMC's forecasts for the funds rate, which this time extends to 2019. The Bank of Japan also meets on Wednesday and could well go in the opposite direction by easing policy, though conflicting reports on what it might do have stoked much uncertainty. Sources have said the BoJ will consider making negative interest rates the centerpiece of future easing by shifting its prime policy target away from base money. The dollar traded near a two-week high against a basket of major currencies on Monday after U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected in August, bolstering expectations that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates this year. U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected in August, data on Friday showed, pointing to a steady build-up of inflation that could allow the Fed to raise interest rates this year. The so-called core CPI, which strips out food and energy costs, rose 0.3 percent last month, the biggest increase since February. The core CPI increased 2.3 percent in the 12 months through August. U.S. short-term interest rate futures are now implying a 55 percent chance of the Fed raising interest rates by December, compared to around 47 percent on before the CPI data, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. A rise in the dollar can increase disinflationary pressures on the U.S. economy, a point touched upon recently by a Fed policymaker. Fed Governor Lael Brainard had said last Monday that low interest rate policies across advanced economies could make the United States more vulnerable to spikes in the value of the dollar which could put downward pressure on inflation. The euro held steady at $1.1160 EUR=, having touched a low of $1.1149 earlier on Monday, its lowest level since Sept. 6. All eyes this week will be on the policy meetings by the Fed and Bank of Japan on Sept. 20-21. Major currencies showed little reaction to news of three attacks across the United States over the weekend, involving bombings in New York City and New Jersey and a stabbing rampage at a Minnesota shopping mall. British Prime Minister Theresa May signaled that she could be ready to launch formal Brexit negotiations in January or February, European Council President Donald Tusk has said. Market volatility is low, U.S. census data shows income gains have reached the middle class, and workers are clawing back a larger share of national income. For now, at least, no international risk stands out and inflation may even be picking up. If Fed Chair Janet Yellen wants to prove that policymakers are not being pulled along by investors who for years have second-guessed them, this week may offer a rare moment of calm to do so. Fed funds futures trading shows that investors are even more skeptical than that, and expect the Fed to stay put until February - more than a year after the central bank raised rates and signaled more would come this year and next. Instead the central bank has been stuck at the 0.25 to 0.5 percent range set last December when it lifted rates for the first time in a decade. Oil prices bounced on reported clashes at Libyan oil ports. Eastern Libyan forces said they had re-established control over two oil ports where an ousted faction launched a counter-attack on Sunday, briefly seizing one of the terminals. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was also reported saying a deal between OPEC and non-OPEC members was "close" and he aimed to announce a deal to stabilize the market this month. Oil prices rose almost 2 percent on Monday, after Venezuela said OPEC and non-OPEC producers were close to reaching an output stabilizing deal and as clashes in Libya raised concerns that efforts to restart crude exports could be disrupted. Clashes in Libya have halted the loading of the first oil cargo from the port of Ras Lanuf in close to two years, while also raising fears of a new conflict over Libya's oil resources. Brent and WTI prices had been dragged to multi-week lows on Friday amid worries returning supplies from Libya would add to the global supply glut. Crude exports from No.3 OPEC producer Iran in August jumped 15 percent from a month ago to more than 2 million barrels per day, according to a source with knowledge of its tanker loading schedule, closing in on Tehran's pre-sanctions shipment levels of five years ago. In the United States, drillers have added oil rigs for 11 out of the past 12 weeks. Drillers added two oil rigs in the week to Sept. 16, bringing the total rig count up to 416, the most since February. [/QUOTE]
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