Daily Market Outlook by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Oct 12, 2015)

USD

The US dollar continued to give up ground against its forex counterparts despite stronger than expected data from the economy. Import prices posted a mere 0.1% decline instead of the projected 0.5% drop while the previous reading was revised slightly higher. For today, US traders are off on a Columbus Day holiday, which suggests lower liquidity and potentially higher volatility among dollar pairs.

EUR

The euro advanced against some of its peers on Friday, even though data from the region came in mixed. France reported a 1.6% jump in industrial production while Italy recorded a worse than expected 0.5% slide. There are no reports lined up from the euro zone today, suggesting that pairs could take their cue from market sentiment or stay in range.

GBP

The pound was still in a weak spot last week, particularly against the commodity currencies, due to bleak data from the UK. The trade balance was weaker than expected, as it showed a deficit of 11.1 billion GBP versus the projected 10 billion GBP shortfall while the previous reading was downgraded. Construction output was also weaker than expected with a surprise 4.3% decline. The UK CB leading index is due today, along with a speech by hawkish MPC member Weale.

CHF

The franc was able to regain ground to the dollar on Friday, despite the lack of data from Switzerland. It appears that European traders are looking for a safe-haven alternative, keeping the Swiss currency supported. There are still no reports due from the Swiss economy today, keeping market sentiment in play.

JPY

The yen gave up ground to its forex rivals, as risk appetite improved. There have been no reports out Japan recently, although the earlier ones have been mostly disappointing. Japanese traders are out on a holiday today, suggesting subdued price action during the Asian trading hours.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls continued to rally across the forex charts, thanks to improved data. However, the Loonie fell behind when the components of the Canadian jobs report showed a dismal picture. As it turns out, the strong headline figure was simply a result of part-time hiring while full-time employment showed losses. Canadian traders are out on holiday but BOC Governor Poloz has a speech lined up.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Oct 14, 2015)

USD

The US dollar had a mixed performance as it acted mostly as a counter currency in recent trading sessions. Low-tier data from the US economy came in somewhat better than expected, with the NFIB small business index rising from 95.9 to 96.1. For today, the top-tier retail sales release is likely to have a stronger effect on the dollar, as the headline reading could show a 0.2% uptick while the core figure could print a 0.1% decline. Also due today are the PPI reports, with the headline figure slated to show a 0.2% decline and the core reading to show a 0.1% uptick.

EUR

The euro regained a bit of ground in recent trading sessions, even though data from Germany came in weaker than expected. The ZEW economic sentiment index plummeted from 19.1 to 1.9, indicating a sharp drop in optimism in the euro zone's strongest economy. However, the region's ZEW index still managed to come in line with expectations for a drop from 33.3 to 30.1. Euro zone industrial production and French CPI data are up for release today.

GBP

The pound retreated against its forex peers when the UK headline CPI printed a 0.1% decline instead of the projected flat reading for September. The core figure held steady at 1.0% instead of improving to the estimated 1.1% reading while the PPI showed a stronger than expected 0.6% rise in producer input prices. The UK jobs report is up for release today and a 2.3K drop in joblessness is expected. Traders are also likely to pay close attention to the average earnings index, which might climb from 2.9% to 3.1% and reflect stronger wage inflation.

CHF

The franc was able to advance against its rivals, as traders appear to be seeking an alternative safe-haven currency in the European region. Data from Switzerland came in line with consensus, as the PPI indicated the projected 0.1% dip in producer price levels. The Swiss ZEW economic expectations index is up for release today and a climb from the earlier 9.7 reading might give the franc an additional boost.

JPY

The Japanese yen took advantage of the run in risk aversion, as it raked in gains across the board. Data from Japan was actually weaker than expected, as the consumer confidence index fell from 41.7 to 40.6 instead of just dipping to 41.6. Preliminary machine tool orders fell by 19.1%, worse than the previous 16.5% drop. Earlier today, the Japanese PPI release printed a 3.9% fall in prices as expected.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls gave up more gains in yesterday's trading, after China printed dismal import figures. The trade surplus was better than expected at 60.3 billion USD versus the projected 46.9 billion USD and the previous 60.2 billion USD, but the components revealed that this was mostly caused by a 17.7% drop in domestic demand. Later on, RBNZ Governor Wheeler hinted that they're open to "some further easing" even as the country's dairy industry showed a strong rebound. Earlier today, China printed a weaker than expected CPI of 1.6% instead of the estimated 1.8% figure and worse than the previous 2.0% reading.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Oct 15, 2015)

USD

The US dollar gave up a lot of ground to its forex counterparts in recent trading sessions, spurred mostly by disappointing retail sales data. The headline figure indicated a mere 0.1% uptick instead of the 0.2% rise while the core figure showed a 0.3% drop. Producer prices were also weaker than expected, suggesting weaker consumer price pressures down the line and a potentially disappointing CPI release, which might be enough to cast Fed rate hike hopes out the window. CPI reports and manufacturing indices from New York and Philadelphia are lined up today.

EUR

The euro took advantage of dollar weakness but gave up ground to most of its other currency counterparts. Industrial production data was weaker than expected, as the region printed a 0.5% decline instead of the 0.4% drop. There are no reports due from the euro zone today.

GBP

The pound reacted positively to the UK jobs release, even though the claimant count change figure showed a 4.6K increase in joblessness versus the projected 2.3K decline. The jobless rate improved from 5.5% to 5.4% while the average earnings index rose from 2.9% to 3.0%, just short of the 3.1% consensus. No reports are due from the UK today.

CHF

The franc took its cue from the euro and retreated against most of its forex peers, except for the US dollar. Data from Switzerland was actually better than expected, as the ZEW economic expectations index rose from 9.7 to 18.3. There are no reports due from Switzerland today.

JPY

The yen continued to advance against most of its peers, most notably the US dollar. There were no major reports out of Japan but traders seemed to move their safe-haven holdings to the yen instead of the dollar. Earlier today, Japan reported a downgrade in its industrial production report to show a 1.2% decline from the initially reported 0.5% downtick. The tertiary industry index recorded a 0.1% uptick instead of the projected flat reading.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were able to take advantage of dollar weakness, despite mostly weaker than expected data. In Australia, the employment report showed a 5.1K drop in employment, its first monthly decline since April. The unemployment rate held steady at 6.2% but this was partly spurred by a drop in the participation rate. US crude oil inventories and New Zealand's quarterly CPI data are up for release next.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

USD


The US dollar regained some ground against its peers on Friday when reports came in line with expectations. Capacity utilization rose 77.5% while industrial production dipped by only 0.1% as expected. The preliminary UoM consumer sentiment report showed a rise to 92.1 from an upgraded 87.2 reading, indicating stronger optimism. For today, FOMC member Brainard is set to give a speech and usually highlights the reasons why the Fed should stand pat.

EUR


The euro gave up ground to most of its forex peers when the final CPI readings confirmed that the region suffered deflation in September. No changes were made to the headline CPI of -0.1% and the core CPI of 0.9%. There are no reports due from the euro zone today, leaving traders to price in expectations for the ECB statement later on this week.

GBP


The pound consolidated to the dollar and regained some ground on Friday, even though there were no major reports out of the UK. For today, there are still no reports lined up, although the weekend release of the Rightmove HPI indicated at 0.6% gain in house prices.

CHF


The franc returned some of its recent wins, as traders probably booked profits off their long trades by the end of the week. Weak inflation in the euro zone increases the odds of further ECB easing, which could mean more intervention from the SNB to keep the franc weak. There are no reports due from Switzerland today.

JPY


The yen struggled to hold on to its recent gains when profit-taking took place by the end of last week. Comments from BOJ Governor Kuroda suggesting that they plan to continue easing until Japan reaches its 2% inflation target kept the yen's gains limited. There are no reports due from Japan today, although the safe-haven currency appears to be giving up ground after China's data dump.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)


The comdolls made a quick bounce upon seeing the latest reports from China, which indicated that the slowdown wasn't so bad for now. The GDP showed 6.8% growth versus the projected 6.9% figure and the previous 7.0% expansion while retail sales came in better than expected. Industrial production and fixed asset investment both came in below expectations. In Canada, manufacturing sales and foreign securities purchases beat expectations. Canada's federal election is scheduled today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Oct 20, 2015)

USD

The US dollar was off to a strong start for the week but wound up giving up some of its recent gains to its peers. FOMC member Brainard reiterated the risks of hiking interest rates too early in her latest testimony, reminding forex market watchers that the Fed liftoff might be delayed to next year. FOMC members Dudley and Powell are set to make speeches today, but the bigger mover could be Yellen's testimony. Any indication that they're willing to wait until next year to tighten might mean more dollar weakness.

EUR

The euro gave up ground to most of its peers as the ECB statement drew near. There have been no major reports out of the euro zone yesterday and only the current account balance is lined up today, leaving euro traders to price in expectations for the upcoming monetary policy decision, which might take the negative headline CPI for September into consideration.

GBP

The pound managed to hold its ground against the dollar and advance against some of its rivals despite the lack of top-tier data from the UK yesterday. BOE Governor Carney is set to give a speech today and his monetary policy bias could push the pound in a particular direction.

CHF

The franc continued to edge lower to the US dollar in recent trading sessions, as the currency has been taking its cue from the euro. The Swiss trade balance is up for release today and a smaller surplus of 2.51 billion CHF compared to the previous 2.86 billion CHF is expected.

JPY

The yen was also off to a good start like the Greenback but ended up returning its lead when risk appetite picked up. There were no reports out of Japan but it seemed that Chinese data was enough to spur risk-taking during the Asian trading session. There are still no reports due from Japan today, keeping market sentiment in play.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls advanced upon seeing the latest economic figures from China, as these indicated that the slowdown hasn't been so terrible yet. The GDP indicated 6.9% growth, stronger than the projected 6.8% figure, while industrial production and fixed asset investment missed expectations. The Kiwi also drew additional support from positive expectations ahead of the dairy auction today while the Loonie retreated after the federal election in Canada. Earlier today, the RBA minutes suggested that the central bank is in no rush to cut interest rates, adding a boost for the Aussie. Canadian wholesale sales data is due today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Oct 21, 2015)

USD

The US dollar regained ground against most of its peers in recent trading sessions when Fed head Yellen didn't exactly show any shift in her monetary policy bias. Other FOMC members reiterated that a liftoff is still possible this year but that it depends on how economic data turns out. Data from the US was mixed, as building permits fell short of expectations at 1.10M while housing starts came in better than expected at 1.21M. For today, data on crude oil inventories and a speech by FOMC member Powell are lined up.

EUR

The euro retreated against its peers when medium-tier data from the euro zone came in worse than expected. German PPI showed a 0.4% drop in price levels while the region's current account balance showed a much smaller surplus of 17.7 billion EUR. There are no reports lined up from the region today, leaving traders to price in expectations ahead of the ECB decision tomorrow.

GBP

The pound was stuck in consolidation against most of its peers, as traders are waiting for more clues from the UK economy. BOE Governor Carney had a testimony yesterday but barely shared any thoughts on his policy bias. He has another speech lined up today and more hints of what the central bank might do next could push the pound out of consolidation.

CHF

The franc had one of its more volatile days in yesterday's trading session, as the Swiss currency popped lower against the dollar. Swiss trade balance came in better than expected at a larger surplus of 3.05 billion CHF but the currency gave up ground when data from the euro zone came in weak. This could increase the odds of ECB easing, which might then lead the SNB to intervene in the forex market to keep the franc weak.

JPY

The yen gave up ground against most of its currency counterparts, as traders seemed to favor the US dollar once more. Earlier today, Japan reported a weaker than expected trade balance, as the deficit was mostly unchanged at 0.36T JPY instead of shrinking to the projected 0.07T JPY shortfall. The country's all industries activity index is due today and might be in for a downside surprise since the tertiary industry activity index fell short.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were off to a good start, thanks to the RBA's relatively upbeat meeting minutes. However, the Kiwi was forced to retreat when the dairy auction revealed a 3.1% drop in prices, putting an end to the impressive streak of gains in the previous weeks. In Canada, wholesale sales data came in weaker than expected with a 0.1% decline versus the projected 0.2% uptick, setting the stage for a potential retail sales disappointment later this week. For today, the BOC is set to make its monetary policy decision and no actual changes are expected.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Oct 22, 2015)

USD

The US dollar advanced against most of its peers as risk aversion seemed to return to the financial markets. There have been no major reports out of the US economy yesterday while today has the initial jobless claims and existing home sales data on tap. The lack of any clear direction among dollar traders could leave the currency moving to the tune of risk sentiment for the rest of the day.

EUR

The euro could be in for a volatile day since the ECB is gearing up to make its policy statement. The central bank admitted that it is open to further easing in their previous statement, and data has fared much worse since. In particular, the headline CPI printed a 0.1% decline in price levels while figures from Germany were mostly disappointing. A dovish bias could send the euro selling off across the board while reassuring remarks could spur a relief rally.

GBP

The pound continued to consolidate against most of its peers, as traders are still waiting for the UK retail sales release. Data from the UK came in better than expected yesterday, as the public sector deficit was smaller than expected. The retail sales report is expected to show a 0.3% gain in spending versus the previous 0.2% uptick.

CHF

The franc took a pause from its recent selloff, as traders are awaiting the ECB rate statement. Even though no actual changes are expected for now, any hints of easing could prompt the SNB to intervene in the forex market to keep the franc weak.

JPY

The yen continued to give up ground against most of its peers when the Japanese all industries activity index showed a 0.2% drop as expected. Data from Japan has been reflecting a slowdown recently, increasing speculations of further easing from the BOJ. No other reports are due from Japan today, keeping risk sentiment in play.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls returned some of their recent wins after the downbeat NZ dairy trade auction and the BOC statement. Even though the Canadian central bank decided to keep monetary policy unchanged, they downgraded their growth forecasts for the next two years and reiterated that the oil slump could continue to weigh on investment and export activity. Canadian retail sales data is due today and a 0.2% increase in the core figure and a 0.1% uptick in the headline figure is eyed.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Oct 23, 2015)

USD

The US dollar regained ground against its peers when risk appetite tanked after the ECB statement. Data from the US came in better than expected, as the initial jobless claims showed a 259K figure versus the projected 266K reading while existing home sales beat expectations at 5.55M. Only the US flash manufacturing PMI is due today and a drop from 53.1 to 52.8 is eyed.

EUR

The euro suffered a sharp selloff across the board when ECB Governor Draghi admitted that they might increase their stimulus program soon. He noted the downside risks to growth and inflation, particularly the downturn in the emerging markets and the euro's appreciation. He also clarified that they are looking into a range of other options, which suggests that more deposit rate cuts or bond purchases could be announced. Euro zone flash PMI readings are lined up today and weak data from the top two nations could spell more euro declines.

GBP

The pound was able to advance in recent trading sessions, thanks to upbeat UK retail sales data. The report showed a 1.9% jump in consumer spending, outpacing the projected 0.3% growth. Although the previous report suffered a downgrade, traders paid closer attention to the stronger than expected report for September. There are no reports due from the UK today.

CHF

The franc also suffered a sharp selloff, thanks to the downbeat ECB statement. Even though there were no reports out of Switzerland, the currency retreated as traders speculated that the SNB might intervene to keep the franc weak against the euro and its other forex rivals in case the ECB announces more QE or a rate cut. There are no reports due from Switzerland today but the franc might still take its cue from the euro.

JPY

The yen had a mixed performance as it reacted mostly to risk sentiment, gaining ground against the euro but losing to the dollar and pound. There have been no reports out of Japan yesterday while today saw a stronger than expected flash manufacturing PMI reading. The index climbed from 51.0 to 52.5 this month, outpacing the consensus at 50.6.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls managed to make a bit of a comeback, as expectations of additional easing from the ECB eased fears of a deeper global economic slowdown. Data from Canada came in mixed, with the core retail sales posting a flat reading and the headline figure indicating a stronger than expected 0.5% gain. Canada's inflation figures are due today, with the headline CPI set to show a 0.1% drop and the core figure likely to show a 0.3% uptick.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Oct 26, 2015)

USD

The US dollar advanced against most of its peers on Friday, as the surprise rate cut by the Chinese central bank spurred a bit of risk aversion. In addition, data from the US was better than expected since the flash manufacturing PMI climbed from 53.0 to 54.1 instead of falling to the projected 52.8 reading. For today, US new home sales data is due and a drop from 552K to 546K is eyed.

EUR

The euro took a break from its sharp selloff when the PBOC decided to ease monetary policy and ease some of the uncertainties in the global market. PMI readings from the euro zone were also mostly better than expected, with the manufacturing and services data from France beating analysts' projections. The German Ifo business climate index is due today and a drop from 108.5 to 108.1 is eyed.

GBP

The pound held on to some of its wins despite the lack of top-tier data from the UK, as the reports released earlier in the week spelled positive prospects for the UK economy. Only the BBA mortgage approvals report and CBI industrial order expectations are up for release today.

CHF

The franc continued to drop against its peers, as traders speculated that any easing moves from the ECB would be accompanied by intervention from the SNB. There were no reports out of Switzerland on Friday and none are due today.

JPY

The yen had a mixed performance as it mostly reacted to market sentiment instead of establishing its own direction. The Japanese flash manufacturing PMI came in better than expected at 52.5, up from the previous 51.0 figure. There are no reports due from the Japanese economy today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls initially sold off upon hearing more interest rate cuts from China but recovered strongly, as traders predicted that the easing moves might spur trade activity and boost commodity prices. Canadian CPI readings were weaker than expected, as the headline CPI showed a 0.2% decline while the core reading indicated a slower than expected 0.2% uptick. New Zealand's trade balance is up for release in the next Asian session, with the deficit expected to narrow.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[TradersWay]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Oct 27, 2015)

USD

The US dollar had a mixed performance, as it reacted mostly to risk sentiment and a bit of profit-taking from the recent strong moves. New home sales data from the US was weaker than expected, as the figure landed at 468K while the previous reading was downgraded to 529K. US CB consumer confidence and flash services PMI are lined up for today, along with durable goods orders data.


EUR

The euro continued to weaken against most of its peers, although some signs of retracement have popped up. Data from the euro zone was actually better than expected, with most of the PMI readings from Germany and France surprising to the upside. Only euro zone data on M3 money supply and private loans are up for release today.


GBP

The pound was able to advance in yesterday's trading sessions, despite weaker than expected BBA mortgage approvals data from the UK. For today, the preliminary GDP reading is up for release and a 0.6% growth figure is eyed. Stronger than expected data could allow the pound to extend its rallies, as this would remind traders that the BOE is still on track to hike rates sometime next year.


CHF


The franc was in a weak spot against most of its peers even though there were no major reports out of Switzerland. The increased odds of additional ECB easing suggests that the SNB might be looking into forex intervention once more in order to make sure the franc stays weak. No reports are due from Switzerland today.


JPY


The yen was able to rake in some gains in recent trading sessions, as risk appetite appeared to weaken. There have been no major reports out of Japan but most economic figures came in the red yesterday, keeping risk aversion in play. There are still no reports due from the country today, which suggests that yen pairs might be sensitive to market sentiment.


Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)


The comdolls returned some of their recent wins after the PBOC rate cuts, as traders were unsure whether or not these easing efforts could translate to stronger growth prospects. Data from New Zealand was worse than expected, as the trade balance indicated a wider deficit for September and a downgrade in the August report.There are no major reports lined up from the comdoll economies today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Oct 28, 2015)

USD

The US dollar was all over the place in recent trading sessions, as it functioned as a counter currency. Data from the US economy came in mostly weaker than expected, with core durable goods data, flash services PMI, and the CB consumer confidence index landing short of consensus. Traders might've also booked profits ahead of the FOMC statement later today, as this could spark huge moves across dollar pairs.

EUR

The euro struggled to keep its head above water yesterday since there were no reports to neither give it a boost nor push it lower. For today, the German import prices data and GfK consumer climate index are up for release, with another batch of weak readings likely to allow the selloff to resume.

GBP

The pound was in a bit of a weak spot yesterday since the UK printed a weaker than expected preliminary GDP reading. The economy expanded only 0.5% in Q3, slower than the estimated 0.6% growth and the previous 0.7% expansion. There are no reports due from the UK today.

CHF

The franc was able to hold its ground in recent trading sessions, as the lack of top-tier data kept both gains and losses in check. There are still no reports due from the Swiss economy today, leaving market sentiment in control of price action among the franc pairs.

JPY

The yen stayed strong yesterday since risk appetite appeared to weaken. Earlier today, data from Japan showed a 0.2% decline in retail sales instead of the estimated 0.4% uptick, setting the stage for weaker reports later this week. No other reports are lined up for today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls gave up ground earlier when Australia printed a bleak CPI reading of 0.5% versus the projected 0.7% figure for Q3. The RBNZ statement is coming up next, just after the FOMC decision, and no interest rate changes are expected for now. Reassuring remarks from Governor Wheeler might also be enough to keep the Kiwi afloat.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[TradersWay]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Oct 29, 2015)

USD


The US dollar enjoyed a strong rally after the FOMC announcement, as the central bank kept the door open for a rate hike in December. In addition, the Fed upgraded its assessment of business and household spending while sounding less concerned about global growth risks. For today, the US advanced GDP for Q3 is up for release and a 1.6% growth figure is eyed.


EUR

The euro suffered another round of selling to its peers when German import prices printed a sharp 0.7% decline instead of the projected 0.2% dip. Also, the German GfK consumer climate index dropped from 9.6 to 9.4, lower than the expected fall to 9.5. For today, German and Spanish flash CPI readings are due and declines are expected, potentially setting the stage for another weak headline CPI for the entire region. The German unemployment change report is also due today and a 4K drop in joblessness is eyed.


GBP


The pound gave up some of its recent wins, even though there were no reports out of the UK. For today, only medium-tier ones such as net lending to individuals, mortgage approvals, and CBI realized sales figures are lined up. Stronger than expected results could still allow the British currency to recover.


CHF


The franc was one of the weakest currencies in yesterday's trading sessions, as the Swiss currency is taking its lead from the euro. There were no reports out of Switzerland yesterday and none are lined up today, which means that franc traders might pay closer attention to euro zone data.


JPY


The yen gave up ground to the dollar but was able to take advantage of the run in risk aversion against higher-yielding currencies. Preliminary industrial production data came in stronger than expected with a 1% rise instead of showing the projected 0.5% drop.


Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)


The comdolls gave up a lot of ground when the FOMC hinted that tightening was still on the table for this year, spurring a drop in commodities. In addition, the RBNZ sounded dovish in their latest rate statement even if they kept rates on hold at 2.75% as expected. In Australia, the quarterly CPI was a disappointment at 0.5% versus the projected 0.7% figure. No other reports are due from the comdoll economies today.

. By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[TradersWay]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Oct 30, 2015)

USD


The US dollar calmed down from its post-FOMC rallies as traders focused on other top-tier data. Besides, the US preliminary GDP reading came in below expectations at just 1.2% growth versus the projected 1.5% expansion. Pending home sales showed a surprise 2.3% decline instead of the expected 1.1% gain. For today, data on personal spending and income are due, along with the core PCE price index.


EUR


The euro struggled to regain a bit of ground in recent trading sessions when data came in mixed. Germany showed a flat preliminary CPI reading, better than the projected 0.1% drop, while Spain showed a worse than expected 0.7% fall in price levels. Germany also reported a larger than expected 5K decline in joblessness, which might mean positive prospects for today's retail sales release. Traders are likely to pay closer attention to the euro zone CPI estimates, as another negative reading could spur more losses for the shared currency.


GBP


The pound bounced back to action in yesterday's sessions, thanks to upbeat figures on net lending to individuals. Mortgage approvals and CBI realized sales data both disappointed though. For today, there are no reports due from the UK, rendering the pound sensitive to market sentiment and euro zone data.


CHF


The franc made a bit of recovery in recent trading sessions, as traders probably booked their recent profits. There were no reports out of Switzerland yesterday while today has the KOF economic barometer on tap, although franc traders might pay closer attention to euro zone data and the odds of further ECB easing.


JPY


The yen consolidated against its peers ahead of today's BOJ statement, although the latest batch of data suggests that the central bank might sound downbeat. Household spending slipped by 0.4% following the previous retail sales disappointment, while both Tokyo and national core CPI figures came in negative. Any signs that the BOJ is willing to expand its easing program could spur yen losses.


Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)


The comdolls were able to regain a bit of ground in latter sessions, as weak data from the US cast doubts on Fed tightening and put risk appetite back on the table. Earlier today, Australia reported stronger than expected PPI readings, spelling positive prospects for its inflation trends and easing fears of another RBA rate cut. The Canadian monthly GDP is up for release and a 0.1% uptick is eyed.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 2, 2015)

USD

The US dollar gave up ground on Friday since most economic figures came in weak. The personal spending and income data indicated a mere 0.1% uptick instead of the projected 0.2% gain while the core PCE price index also logged in a 0.1% increase versus the estimated 0.2% rise. The Chicago PMI came in better than expected at 56.2 versus 49.5 but the UoM consumer sentiment index was lowered from 92.1 to 90.0. The US ISM manu PMI is due today and a drop from 50.2 to 50.0 is eyed.

EUR

The euro managed to recover slightly, thanks to a flat headline CPI estimate for the region. Analysts had been expecting to see another negative reading, which would've been enough to confirm additional ECB easing. Other medium-tier reports also beat expectations, with the jobless rate dropping from 10.9% to 10.8% and the core CPI landing at 1.0%, but the consumer spending data from Germany and France fell short. Final manufacturing PMI readings are due from the euro zone nations today.

GBP

The pound was able to hold on to its recent gains despite weaker than expected data from the UK. The GfK consumer confidence index dipped from 3 to 2 instead of improving to the projected 4 reading. The UK manufacturing PMI is due today and a drop from 51.5 to 51.3 is expected.

CHF

The franc made a quick rebound on Friday, even as the KOF economic barometer missed expectations. The reading came in at 99.8 versus the projected 100.1 figure while the previous reading was downgraded to 100.3. Swiss retail sales data is due today and a 0.2% rebound is eyed.

JPY

The yen recovered against its peers when the BOJ refrained from easing policy further. The central bank didn't appear too concerned about the slump in the Japanese economy, with one policymaker still voting to taper asset purchases. Japanese household spending and housing starts both missed expectations but today's flash manu PMI came in strong at 52.4 versus 52.1.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls appear to be off to a good start, even though reports from China released over the weekend weren't so impressive. The official manufacturing PMI held steady at 49.8 instead of improving to 50.0 while the non-manufacturing PMI fell from 53.4 to 53.1. However, the Caixin PMI climbed from 47.2 to 48.3, outpacing the consensus at 47.7. No reports are due from the comdoll economies today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 3, 2015)

USD

The US dollar struggled to hold on to its recent gains when the ISM manufacturing PMI was released. The index fell from 50.2 to 50.1 in October, slightly higher than the projected 50.0 figure. However, the employment component indicated a contraction, spurring downbeat expectations for the NFP release. US factory orders data is due today and a 0.8% decline is eyed, following the previous 1.7% drop.

EUR

The euro suffered another round of losses when an ECB member noted that the French economy is growing slower than expected and that further easing in December remains a possibility. Final PMI readings from the region came in better than expected but weren't enough to keep the shared currency afloat. The Spanish unemployment change report is due today and a 70.3K increase in joblessness is expected.

GBP

The pound had a volatile trading day but was able to rake in some gains, thanks to the upbeat manufacturing PMI. The figure climbed from 51.8 to 55.5 in October, reflecting a stronger pace of industry expansion. For today, the construction PMI is due and a drop from 59.9 to 58.9 is eyed, although this might not have such a huge impact on pound movement.

CHF

The franc was in the same weak spot as the euro, as increased odds of ECB easing could spur SNB intervention. Swiss retail sales came in line with expectations of a 0.2% gain while the manufacturing PMI beat expectations by rising from 49.5 to 50.7, outpacing the consensus at 50.2. There are no reports due from Switzerland today.

JPY

The yen edged lower against its peers when risk appetite appeared to improve and traders continued to speculate about potential BOJ easing. Japan's final manufacturing PMI was downgraded from 52.5 to 52.4, still higher than the projected 52.1 figure. Japanese banks are closed for the holiday today, which means that there are no reports due.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were able to take advantage of the pickup in risk appetite yesterday after Chinese PMI readings didn't turn out so bad. In fact, the Caixin report showed a climb from 47.2 to 48.3, indicating a slower pace of contraction. Earlier today, the RBA statement gave the Aussie another boost when they decided to keep rates on hold at 2.00%. New Zealand is set to have its Global Dairy Trade auction and release its quarterly jobs data in the late US session, with analysts expecting to see a 0.4% rise in employment.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 4, 2015)

USD

The US dollar had a mixed performance but was mostly in the green despite weak data. Factory orders slumped by 1.0% in September, worse than the expected 0.8% fall, while the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index slipped from 47.3 to 45.5. For today, the ADP non-farm employment change report is due and a 183K gain is expected. Also lined up are the ISM non-manufacturing PMI, US trade balance, and a speech by Fed head Yellen.

EUR

The euro resumed its slide in recent sessions as more ECB members hinted at further easing. There were no reports out of the euro zone yesterday while today has the final services PMI readings on tap, along with the euro zone PPI. Another sharp fall in producer prices could spell bleak prospects for consumer inflation, potentially spurring more losses for the shared currency.

GBP

The pound returned some of its recent gains when the construction PMI came in slightly below expectations. The consensus was for a decline from 59.9 to 58.9 but the actual reading landed at 58.8. The services PMI is due today and a climb from 53.3 to 54.6 is expected, possibly allowing the pound to regain ground.

CHF

The franc gave up its recent wins when SNB head Thomas Jordan began jawboning the currency once more. He pointed out that the franc is still trading at high levels, leading to speculations that the central bank might intervene sooner or later. There were no reports out of Switzerland yesterday and none are due today.

JPY

The yen advanced against most of its peers, except for the dollar and the pound, as risk appetite weakened. Japanese traders were out on a holiday yesterday but are back in action today, awaiting the release of the consumer confidence index which might rise from 40.6 to 41.1.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Kiwi suffered a sharp selloff when the dairy auction showed another fall in prices and the New Zealand jobs report turned out to be a disappointment. The economy lost 0.4% in employment for the previous quarter instead of posting the projected 0.4% gain while dairy prices slumped by 7.4%. In Australia, retail sales came in line with expectations of a 0.4% gain while the trade balance beat expectations at a deficit of 2.32 billion AUD. US crude oil inventories are lined up and the commodity price reaction could affect Loonie movements.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 5, 2015)

USD

The US dollar was much stronger across the board, thanks to hawkish remarks from Fed Chairperson Yellen and support from FOMC members Brainard and Dudley. Yellen said that a December rate hike is a "live possibility" if upcoming data meets the FOMC's expectations. The ADP non-farm employment change came in line with expectations of a 180K gain while the ISM non-manufacturing PMI leaped from 56.9 to 59.1, with a strong improvement in its jobs index. Initial jobless claims and preliminary labor costs data are due today.

EUR

The euro dipped to new lows against the dollar and the yen, as risk aversion weighed on financial markets yesterday. Most economic figures from the euro zone came in stronger than expected yesterday, with the exception of the German services PMI which was downgraded from 55.2 to 54.5. German factory orders and euro zone retail sales are due today, along with another speech by ECB Governor Draghi.

GBP

The pound was able to enjoy a few gains in recent trading, as the UK services PMI beat expectations. The index climbed 53.3 to 54.9, outpacing the consensus at 54.6. Traders are still holding out for today's Super Thursday events, though, as the BOE will make its interest rate decision, release the MPC meeting minutes, and print the Inflation Report. Any changes in bias or economic forecasts could have a significant effect on pound price action.

CHF

The franc advanced against its currency rivals, as risk aversion settled in the financial markets. There were no reports out of Switzerland yesterday while today has the SECO consumer climate index and the Swiss CPI on tap. Price levels might fall flat again in October, weaker than the previous 0.1% uptick, with negative readings likely to spur talks of SNB intervention.

JPY

The yen took advantage of the run in risk aversion yesterday, also boosted partly by stronger than expected Japanese consumer confidence data. There are no reports lined up from the Japanese economy today, which suggests that risk sentiment could keep pushing yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls gave up a lot of ground in yesterday's risk-off environment, as the prospect of Fed tightening weighed on commodity prices. Canada actually saw stronger than expected trade data, which indicated a 0.7% increase in export activity. US crude inventories were lower at 2.8 million barrels but this wasn't enough to boost oil prices. Canada's Ivey PMI is due today and a rise from 53.7 to 54.0.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 9, 2015)

USD


The US dollar enjoyed a strong rally against its forex rivals on Friday, thanks to upbeat jobs data. The NFP report showed a 271K increase in hiring, much higher than the projected 179K figure and the previous 137K rise. This was enough to bring the jobless rate down from 5.1% to 5.0%. Average hourly earnings also reflected stronger wage growth at 0.4% versus the 0.2% forecast, adding to upside inflationary pressures as well. Only the labor market conditions index is due from the US today.

EUR


The euro caved to dollar strength on Friday but was slightly higher against some of its higher-yielding counterparts. Data from the euro zone was mostly weaker than expected, with Germany reporting a 1.1% slump in industrial production versus the projected 0.6% gain. German trade balance and euro zone Sentix investor confidence data are due today.

GBP


The pound was able to score some gains against its non-dollar peers, thanks to upbeat data from the UK. Manufacturing production was better than expected at 0.8% versus the projected 0.4% uptick but industrial production showed a 0.2% drop. The trade balance was also better than expected at a smaller deficit of 9.4 billion GBP compared to the previous 10.8 billion GBP shortfall.

CHF


The franc slid against the dollar but managed to hold on to some of its gains against its other forex counterparts when risk aversion set in. Swiss foreign currency reserves swelled from 541B CHF to 551B CHF, hinting that the SNB may have intervened to keep the franc weak. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.

JPY

The yen gave up ground to the dollar but managed to advance against its higher-yielding rivals. Japan's leading indicators fell short of expectations while BOJ Governor Kuroda spoke of the challenges to achieving price stability. Earlier today, Japan reported a 0.6% gain in average cash earnings, slightly higher than the projected 0.5% increase.


Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)


Comdolls gave up ground to the dollar due to the risk-off environment last Friday, as the prospect of Fed tightening means higher borrowing costs and therefore lower spending among consumers and businesses. Jobs figures from Canada beat expectations but underlying components indicated that the 44.4K rise in employment was mostly just a result of part-time hiring. Over the weekend, China printed a larger trade surplus spurred by a drop in exports and an even larger drop in imports.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 10, 2015)

USD

The US dollar had a pretty quiet trading day, as traders calmed down from the NFP volatility. The currency managed to hold on to its lead against the euro and comdolls but weakened to the yen and pound. There were no major reports out of the US yesterday, although the medium-tier labor conditions index climbed from 1.3 to 1.6 in October.

EUR

The euro was still in a weak spot against its peers, as the German trade balance missed expectations. The Sentix investor confidence index posted a better than expected reading of 15.1 versus the projected 12.4 figure, up from the previous 11.7 reading. French and Italian industrial production numbers are up for release today.

GBP

The pound was one of the best performers yesterday, even though there were no reports out of the UK. Traders may have been pricing in positive expectations for the upcoming jobs release, with the claimant count change likely to print a mere 1.6K rise in joblessness. For today, there are still no reports due from the UK.

CHF

The franc followed in the euro's footsteps and weakened to most of its peers, although it managed to recoup its gains when risk aversion extended its stay. There were no reports out of Switzerland yesterday while today has the unemployment rate on tap.

JPY

The yen took advantage of the run in risk aversion, but it had trouble holding on to its lead since data from Japan has been mostly weak. The current account surplus shrank from 1.59T JPY to 0.78T JPY, worse than the projected drop to 1.50T JPY.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls started off on a weak foot, as the Chinese trade numbers still weighed on sentiment. In Australia, job advertisements picked up by 0.4% compared to the earlier 3.8% jump while Canada reported a 198K increase in housing starts. Earlier today, Australia printed its NAB business confidence index, which dipped from 5 to 2. Chinese CPI came in below expectations at 1.3% versus 1.5% while the PPI showed a 5.9% drop as expected.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 11, 2015)

USD

The US dollar gave up some of its recent gains when medium-tier data came in weaker than expected. Import prices slumped 0.5% in October versus the projected 0.1% dip while the September figure was revised to show a sharper 0.6% decline. Wholesale inventories piled up by 0.5% instead of staying flat, hinting at a drop in demand. US banks are on holiday for Veterans Day today.


EUR

The euro resumed its slide against most of its forex peers but managed to stage a quick comeback during the latter sessions. Data from France and Italy were both unimpressive, reminding traders that the economic performance in the top economies in the region is weakening. A speech by Draghi is lined up today and traders are on the lookout for more easing hints.


GBP

The pound was mostly stuck in consolidation as traders are awaiting the release of the UK jobs data today. Analysts are expecting to see a 1.6K increase in claimants, slower than the previous 4.6K gain and enough to keep the jobless rate steady at 5.4%. The average earnings index could improve from 3.0% to 3.2%, indicating a faster pace of wage growth and possibly allowing the pound to recover.


CHF

The franc took its cue from the euro and erased some of its recent losses, buoyed partly by a steady unemployment rate at 3.4%. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today, leaving the franc sensitive to counter currency data.


JPY

The yen was able to hold on to its recent gains as risk aversion stayed in play. Data from Japan was weaker than expected, with the current account balance printing a much smaller surplus of 0.78T JPY versus the projected 1.50T JPY figure. Japanese preliminary machine tool orders data is due today and a recovery from the earlier 19.1% slide could prop up the yen.


Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

Comdolls didn't seem to be too happy about data from China, as the CPI fell from 1.6% to 1.3%, lower than the projected 1.5% figure. Producer prices slipped 5.9% as expected, putting additional downside pressure on consumer price levels later on. Chinese industrial production, fixed asset investment, and retail sales data are due today. Earlier on, the RBNZ Financial Stability Report provided some support for the Kiwi when officials assured that banks can withstand any risks from the slowing dairy sector and the booming home market.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way