Daily Market News by Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

GBP/USD REJECTED AT 1.3835, SURRENDERS 1.3800

• Closely tracks DXY price-action.
• Brexit headlines will continue to weigh.
• Focus shifts to the US industrial figures.

The GBP/USD pair failed once again to sustain above the 1.38 handle, now accelerating the corrective slide from fresh post-Brexit vote highs reached at 1.3836.

GBP/USD back to test 5-DMA at 1.3768

The spot ran into the key resistance zone located near 1.3835, as the US dollaris seen recovering early losses versus its main peers, having dipped to the lowest levels since Dec 2014 at 89.98. The USD index looks to stabilize near 90.25 levels, as attention now turns towards the US industrial production data due later on Wednesday.

The AceTrader Team explained, “although the greenback snapped its recent losing streak initially on Tuesday and staged a rebound against the majority of its peers on short-covering, the intra-day decline in U.S. stocks where the Dow tumbled from record highs of 26086 triggered renewed broad-based USD selling in late New York trade.”

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/gbp-usd-rejected-1-3835-surrenders-1-3800/

 

[xtreamforex]

AUD/JPY – OFFERED ABOVE KEY FIB, TURNS NEGATIVE AFTER AUSSIE JOBS DATA

• AUD/JPY offered near 89.00 levels.
• Fails to hold above 88.690 – 76.4% Fib R of Sep-Nov drop.
• Aussie Dec employment change beats estimates, jobless rate rises.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported better-than-expected December employment change figures, but the Aussie dollar is not impressed.

The AUD/JPY ran into offers 88.97 and hit a session low of 88.41 even though the ABS data showed more than 34K jobs were created across Australia last month, beating the estimated growth of 9K by a big margin. Also, the previous month’s print was revised higher to 63.6K from 61.6K.

Further, full-time employment change came in at 15.1k versus the upwardly revised 43.6k in November. However, the jobless rate ticked higher to 5.5 percent from 5.4 percent as expected.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/aud-jpy-offered-key-fib-turns-negative-aussie-jobs-data/

 

[xtreamforex]

NZD/USD STUCK AT 0.73 FOR A FIFTH CONSECUTIVE SESSION

• Kiwi struggles to cut through offers around 0.76.
• Overbought technical conditions at play?
• Focus on US-NZ yield spread and US government shutdown.

The NZD/USD is struggling to rise above 0.76 in a convincing manner for the fifth straight session.

Having rallied 7.67 percent from the November low of 0.6780, the pair looks overbought as per daily RSI. Still, the downside has been capped near 0.7230 this week, courtesy of broad-based US dollar weakness.

The story has not changed much this Friday. The US 10-year treasury yield rose above 2.63 percent; the highest level since December 2016. Still, the USD has failed to catch a bid. Also, keeping USD no the back foot are fears of a US government shutdown.

Earlier today, the US House of Representatives passed a bill to fund government operations through Feb. 16. However, the bill still needs an approval by the Senate, where it faces an uncertain future.

 

[xtreamforex]

USD/JPY: BEARISH BELOW 100-D SMA AHEAD OF BOJ THIS WEEK

• USD/JPY Bulls unable to get above 100-D SMA.
• USD/JPY traders turn to BoJ this week.

In a day of no data in Asia, the market is quiet and USD/JPY is stationary in Tokyo around the closing prices for Friday. Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 110.63 with a high of 11.85 and a low of 110.51.

Contained by the 10-D SMA, USD/JPY is consolidating the recent losses that occurred last week from 111.48 to aforementioned lows today despite strong US Treasury yields that climbed to their highest since September 2014. The 10-year yields finished up on Friday at 2.64% having ranged between 2.61% and 2.66%. Also, the US government shutdown was a thorn in the Bull’s hooves while we await the outcome of this week’s BoJ.

Special update: US Government officially shut down

BoJ on the cards this week

“The Bank of Japan also meets this week and under current term, this will be Kuroda’s last quarterly ‘outlook’ meeting. The BoJ Governor is likely to send a message that official interest rates are going nowhere just yet. With neither central bank likely to signal policy changes this week, further US$ weakness may be averted,” explained analysts at Westpac.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/usd-jpy-bearish-100-d-sma-ahead-boj-week/

 

[xtreamforex]

GBP/USD RISES ABOVE 1.40 FOR THE FIRST SINCE POST-BREXIT VOTE

• Cable peeps above 1.40 in Asia.
• Defies weak UK data and rising treasury yields.
• Will it hold above 1.40?

GBP/USD clocked a new post-Brexit vote high of 1.4003 and was last seen trading at 1.3990 levels.

As discussed yesterday, the rally looks unjustified if we take into account the widening 10-year UK-US yield spread. Also, the RSI has diverged on 1-hour and 4-hour time frame (has not made news highs along with price), signaling the potential for a pullback. Further, a false upside break would be confirmed if the spot closes below 1.3945 (Jan 19. high).

That said, the macro data out of UK has not been encouraging either. As Kathy Lien from BK Asset Management says, consumer price growth slowed year over year and retail sales nosedived in the month of December. Excluding auto purchases, retail sales experienced its largest decline in 7 months.

Hence, GBP bulls may find it hard to keep the pair above 1.40 unless the labor data due tomorrow shows a sharp rise in the wage growth figures.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/gbp-usd-rises-1-40-first-since-post-brexit-vote/

 

[xtreamforex]

USD/JPY BACK IN NO MAN’S LAND AFTER A TURBULENT NY SESSION

• USD/JPY to crumble again or…?
• USD/JPY not quite out of the woods yet.

After a day caught between the ECB surprise and the Trump comments sending the dollar all over the place overnight, currently, USD/JPY is trading at 109.60, up 0.31% on the day, having posted a daily high at 109.79 and low at 109.19.

USD/JPY rallied on the Trump comments around the dollar when he was speaking in a CNBC interview, saying that he wants a ‘strong dollar’, and reiterating the comments that he had made in Davos earlier when he said that Mnuchin comments were taken out of context. He said that the dollar was going to get “stronger and stronger”.

The dollar’s reversal

The dollar reversed to make a high of 89.5800 and a big figure higher than the lows of the day, closing near to the opening price of 89.2830 to end near enough flat on the day. US yields were in a range of between 2.61%-2.67% -0.97% on the day closing at 2.62%. USD/JPY collapsed to 108.49 before the Trump rally and a close of 109.40 after a high of 109.70 that was faded.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/usd-jpy-back-no-mans-land-turbulent-ny-session/

 

[xtreamforex]

NZD/USD – CORRECTIVE MOVE ON CARDS?

• USD due for a technical correction.
• Upbeat US core PCE could yield boost USD.
• The NZD/USD chart looks toppy.

“Technically, the dollar is due for a bounce, but on a fundamental basis, there needs to be a catalyst”, says Kathy Lien from BK Asset Management.

As Analysts at ANZ writes, “the focus this week will be the FOMC, non-farm payrolls, end-month flows and continued trade/political talks, such as NAFTA developments.”

That said, the NZD/USD might witness a healthy correction even on the back of upbeat US core personal consumption expenditure (due at 13:30 GMT), given the last week’s toppy price action after dismal NZ Q4 CPI reading.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/nzd-usd-corrective-move-cards/

 

[xtreamforex]

GBP/USD – LOW ODDS OF FURTHER NEAR-TERM GBP GAINS?

• Risk reversals indicate falling demand for GBP calls.
• Theresa May is now odds-on to resign in 2018, most options will hurt sterling.

GBP/USD options activity indicates a near-term top could be in place at 1.4345 (Jan. 25 high).

The implied volatility premium for GBP calls over GBP puts has quickly faded, as indicated by the risk reversals, suggesting investors are less concerned about a further near-term rally in GBP.

GBP/USD One-week 25 delta risk reversals are paid at 0.22 GBP puts today from a 0.17 GBP call bias two weeks ago. Meanwhile, the benchmark 1-month 25 delta risk reversals are 0.03 GBP calls from 0.375 GBP calls last week (also the long-term high).

PM May’s resignation could hurt Pound

Speculation is on the rise that “window is closing” on PM May’s leadership after recent complaints about her lack of vision and rows about the direction of Brexit. That said, May’s exit could be bad for the British Pound.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/gbp-usd-low-odds-near-term-gbp-gains/

 

[xtreamforex]

NZD/USD OFF 0.7365 SESSION HIGHS FOLLOWING CHINESE PMI DISAPPOINTMENT

• Kiwi slips on bad China PMI.
• USD gains mild intraday strength on Donald Trump comments during SOTU address

NZD/USD currently trading into the 0.7350 handle, slipping from Asia session highs of 0.7368 following the release of worse-than-expected PMI data from China.

Chinese PMI data(including manufacturing) for the month of January dipped lower to 51.3, falling slightly from 51.6 in the previous month. While contraction isn’t positive, the PMI is still comfortably above the 50-point mark, which acts as the waterline for growth or contraction.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-...n-highs-following-chinese-pmi-disappointment/

 

[xtreamforex]

AUD/JPY – RANGE TRADING CONTINUES

• AUD/JPY mildly bid above 88.00.
• AUD relatively resilient against USD.
• But 88.50-87.70 range still intact.

Currently, AUD/JPY is up 0.14 percent at $88.07, largely due to an uptick in the USD/JPY pair and a flat AUD/USD pair.

The USD/JPY pair is up 0.13 percent seemingly due to the Fed’s upward revision of the inflation outlook. Meanwhile, the Aussie dollar is relatively resilient, despite a big drop in the building permits (reported earlier today). Thus, the AUD / JPY cross is mildly bid in Asia.

That said, the trading range of 88.50-87.70 is still intact. Considering the double top formation around 89.00, the pair will likely end the trading range with a downside break.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/aud-jpy-range-trading-continues/

 

[xtreamforex]

AUD/USD HITS FRESH 3.5 WEEK LOW ON DISMAL AUSSIE DATA

• AUD hit 3.5 week low of 0.7863.
• Aussie Dec retail sales dropped more than expected.
• Trade balance record a deficit in Dec.

There appears to be no relief in sight for the Aussie dollar as the currency received negative news on the domestic front amid risk aversion across global financial markets.

• Australia retail sales dropped 0.5% in December

Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported a 0.5 percent drop in retail sales in December, suggesting consumption remained weak in the all-important festive season. Markets were expecting a 0.2 percent drop. Also, the previous month’s reading was revised higher from 1.2 percent to 1.5 percent.

Further, the trade balance recorded a deficit of AUD 1.36 billion in December compared to the AUD 0.2 billion surplus.

The Aussie dollar, which was already on the back foot, extended the losses to hit a fresh 3.5 week low of 0.7863. The AUD/USD pair was last seen trading at 0.7874 levels. The currency pair could remain flat-lined on account of caution ahead of the RBA rate decision.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/aud-usd-hits-fresh-3-5-week-low-dismal-aussie-data/

 

[xtreamforex]

NZD/USD DRIFTING IN TOKYO AFTER JOBS DATA BEAT, TRADING NEAR 0.7330

• Kiwi slowly leaking back gains from positive data during a quiet Asia session.
• Recent risk aversion sparked temporary Dollar popularity, Greenback selling set to continue.

NZD/USD trading doftly down in Asia, near 0.7330 after a good jump minutes before the NY close on a jobs data beat. The Kiwi has appreciated against the US Dollar the past two months as market confidence evaporated for the Greenback, but the recent bout of risk aversion seen in markets has sent the Dollar back up the charts, albeit briefly.

New Zealand’s RBNZ will be publishing their interest rate decision and monetary policy statement today at 20:00, and while the bank is widely expected to stand pat on interest rates for the time being, an overly hawkish tone from the RBNZ could send the Kiwi back up the charts.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/nzd-usd-drifting-tokyo-jobs-data-beat-trading-near-0-7330/

 

[xtreamforex]

AUD/USD IS NOT IMPRESSED BY A RISE IN CHINA’S IRON ORE IMPORTS

• China iron ore imports increased by 15.7 million tonnes in January.
• Yuan-denominated trade surplus narrowed to 135.8 billion.
• AUD/USD pays no heed to China data release.

China imported 100 million tonnes of iron ore in January, compared to 84.3 million tonnes in December, customs data show. Arrivals were 94.54 million tonnes in November.

However, the Aussie dollar is not impressed. As of writing, the AUD/USD is trading at 0.7825 – levels seen before the release of China trade data. Iron ore along with copper is one of Australia’s top exports.

A drop in China’s overall trade surplus could be keeping the AUD bulls at bay. Also worth noting is the slight decline in China’s copper imports. The world’s largest consumer of commodities imported 440,000 tonnes of unwrought copper in January, compared to 450,000 tonnes in December.

Looking ahead – the pair could be influenced by the action in the AU-US 10-year bond yield spread. The Aussie dollar could drop below 0.78 if the spread turns negative inversion) and equities see sharp losses.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/aud-usd-not-impressed-rise-chinas-iron-ore-imports/

 

[xtreamforex]

GBP/USD – FOCUS ON UK MANUFACTURING AND TRADE DATA

• BOE’s hawkish tilt favors upside Pound.
• Cable could revisit 1.4067 on better-than-expected UK data.

Bank of England’s hawkish tilt pushed the GBP/USD higher to 1.4067 yesterday, however, the risk aversion played a spoilsport and cable fell back to 1.3920.

That said, the British Pound could still put on a stellar performance if the UK data due today betters estimates and the global equity markets regain poise.

The UK manufacturing production is seen rising 0.3 percent m/m in December vs. 0.4 percent in November, while the industrial production is expected to have dropped 0.9 percent m/m. Further, the UK Office for National Statistics will likely report a small drop in the December trade deficit.

Yesterday, the BOE suggested the interest rates could be raised faster than previously indicated. An upbeat UK data would boost expectations of faster rate hikes (as suggested by the BOE) and push GBP/USD back to 1.4067 (previous day’s high).

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/gbp-usd-focus-uk-manufacturing-trade-data/

 

[xtreamforex]

GBP/USD POISED TO CONTINUE BULL-RUN AFTER DECLINING INTO LONG-TERM SUPPORT


GBP/USD may be poised to continue pushing higher following a couple of weeks of declines. Sterling is currently trading up softly on thin markets to kick off the new weeks, treading into the 1.3840 region ahead of European markets.

Sterling has suffered at the hands of market sentiment as of late, with pullbacks in equities and spikes in bond yields to multi-year highs sending traders head-first into safe havens at the expense of risk assets such as the British Pound.

Despite recent selling pressure on the Queen’s currency, fundamentals are beginning to look good for the UK, with Prime Minister Theresa May experiencing a bump in polling along with Brexit fears seeming to tame somewhat, even as the British Parliament and leaders within the EU continue to trade barbs back and forth. The Bank of England (BoE) is also upbeat, with a positive outlook on the UK’s economy as economic growth begins to build on itself, causing the BoE to begin hinting at interest rates in the near future.

The Kingdom has a slew of economic data on the docket for Tuesday this week, most notably being CPI data for January at 09:30 GMT. A positive uptick here will only further cement the BoE on a path towards interest rates, with some market forecasts already calling for a May rate increase.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-...tinue-bull-run-declining-long-term-support-2/

 

[xtreamforex]

GBP/JPY LACKING DIRECTION, UK CPI DATA ON THE DOCKET FOR TODAY

• GBP/JPY indecisive in Tokyo trading.
• UK CPI data due at 09:30 GMT today.

GBP/JPY is stepping lightly in Asia markets, fidgeting around 150.42 following a flat Monday.

The pair has had a rough go of things lately, closing lower or flat for six of the last seven trading days. With the threat of interest rate increases looming on the horizon, traders have been flighty and prone to fits of risk aversion, dumping equities and risk assets in order to pile into safe havens. With the UK showing steady upticks in economic growth and the Bank of England (BoE) preparing to begin tightening their monetary policy, the era of easy money for global markets is set to end, leaving risk appetite in a precarious position.

The UK will be dropping their CPI data today at 09:30 GMT; a slight contraction in price growth is anticipated by market forecasts, with analysts calling for a 2.9% reading compared to the previous 3.0%.

Adding to the pair’s woes is the Yen’s relentless strength recently; as the Yen continues to be the market’s safe haven of choice, despite relentless soothing from figures at the Bank of Japan, reminding markets that the BoJ is not inclined to begin raising reates anytime soon in an attempt to keep the Yen weighted down while Japan’s economy struggles to continue adding to its inflation numbers.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/gbp-jpy-lacking-direction-uk-cpi-data-docket-today/

 

[xtreamforex]

USD/JPY DROPS IN TANDEM WITH NIKKEI, WEAKEST SINCE NOV 2016

• Tracks Nikkei 225, DXY lower.
• Profit-taking ahead of the US CPI?

The bears regained control after a brief recovery seen in the USD/JPY pair, now pushing the rates southwards in a bid to print the lowest levels since November 2016.

USD/JPY headed to 107.00

The spot is seen replicating the moves witnessed in Asia a day before, as risk-aversion seeps back into markets, with the Asian equities crumbling again alongside oil prices. Japan’s benchmark index, the Nikkei 225 sinks nearly 0.90% to 21,053 points while Treasury yields dive across the curve, in turn adding to the downslide.

The major also faces a double whammy from broad-based US dollar weakness, as the buck tracks Treasury yields lower amid a sense of caution ahead of the key US CPI figures, which are likely to shape up the Fed’s rate hike outlook this year.

Meanwhile, the JPY markets appear to have shrugged off the disappointment in the details of the Japanese Q4 GDP report, which showed that the preliminary Q4 GDP arrived at 0.1% q/q vs. 0.2% expected.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/usd-jpy-drops-tandem-nikkei-weakest-since-nov-2016/

 

[xtreamforex]

USD/JPY – ASO’S COMMENTS KILL THE TECHNICAL RECOVERY

• Yen regains bid after Aso talks down need for FX intervention.
• USD/JPY drops 30 pips from 106.89.

The technical recovery in the USD/JPY pair fell apart at 106.89 as the Japanese Yen picked up a bid after Japanese Finance Minister Aso played down the need for FX intervention.

Speculation has been gathering pace that Yen appreciation may not go down well with the authorities in Tokyo. However, Aso’s comments indicate the policymakers are comfortable with the recent appreciation of the Japanese Yen.

So, for the time being, the JPY bulls have little reason to fear. That said, the technical charts show oversold conditions. The daily RSI has hit the oversold territory. Further, risk reversals have diverged from the spot, indicating a drop in the premium claimed by JPY calls (bullish bets) over JPY puts (bearish bets).

Also, the 10-year treasury yield continues to rise and more importantly the US stock market has remained resilient. Hence, caution is the name of the game for the JPY bulls.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/usd-jpy-asos-comments-kill-technical-recovery/

 

[xtreamforex]

AUD/USD BIDDING HIGHER IN ASIA TRADING, PUSHING INTO 0.7955

• AUD/USD up on USD selling in Tokyo.
• RBA Gov Lowe doesn’t see a rate increase any time soon.

AUD/USD is continuing to climb on thin trading volumes, testing into 0.7955 as of writing.

The pair experienced a choppy Thursday following Wednesday’s Greenback plunge as inflation within the US economy begins to heat up, with month-over-month CPI data beating both previous the previous reading and median market forecasts. The Aussie’s growth in recent days, closing higher against the US Dollar in four of the last five consecutive trading days, owes itself largely to the broad-market selling of the USD rather than any internalities from Australia.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Governor, Philip Lowe, appeared before parliament’s Standing Committee on Economics where he reiterated the RBA’s holding pattern in the face of sluggish economic growth and mixed data. With inflation struggling to make a decisive appearance, the RBA has no choice but to hold steady on their monetary easing policies, even as major global competitors are racing to begin tightening their belts and raise interest rates.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/aud-usd-bidding-higher-asia-trading-pushing-0-7955/

 

[xtreamforex]

USD/JPY – STUCK IN A 40-PIPS RANGE

• Stuck in 106.00-106.40 range.
• Risk reversals retrace JPY call bias.

USD/JPY has been restricted to a narrow range of 106.00-106.40 since Friday’s late NY trading and the risk reversals indicate the range could be breached on the higher side.

As of writing, the spot is trading at 106.23, having clocked a high of 106.37 and a low of 106.10. The pair hit a low of 105.55 on Friday before moving back above 106.00 on chart factors (oversold conditions). Also, the options market indicates the premium held by JPY calls (bullish bets) over JPY puts has dropped over the last few days.

The one-month 25 delta risk reversals are being paid at JPY 2.025 calls vs. JPY 2.425 calls on Feb. 12. Also, weekly risk reversals are being paid at JPY 1.53 calls vs. JPY 2.50 calls. The decline in demand for JPY calls (as highlighted by the drop in premium) could be an indication the investors are expecting a corrective rally in the USD/JPY spot.

So, the 40-pip trading range could end with an upside break. That said, the fears of a full-blown trade war between the US and China could keep Yen losses under the check.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/usd-jpy-stuck-40-pips-range/