Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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EUR/GBP: Bank of England Holds Rates as ECB Raised Them a Week Earlier

Against the backdrop of a weak UK economy and inflation remaining above target, the Bank of England paused in June, leaving the base rate unchanged at 3.75% for the fourth consecutive meeting despite internal disagreements among committee members over the need for a rate increase. The contrast with the European Central Bank's actions was striking: on 11 June, the ECB opted to raise interest rates in response to a surge in eurozone inflation driven by higher energy prices amid the conflict in the Middle East. As a result, the monetary policy paths of London and Frankfurt temporarily diverged, with market attention now shifting to the Bank of England's next meeting on 30 July.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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USD/JPY Tests Multi-Year Highs, While USD/CAD Holds Near Yearly Peaks

After a strong rally in the US dollar at the end of last week, the currency has moved into a consolidation phase against major counterparts. Investors remain cautious ahead of the release of the ADP employment report for the US private sector, which is expected to serve as a key indicator before Friday’s official Nonfarm Payrolls data. Additional influence on the dollar’s dynamics today may come from the manufacturing PMI and ISM indices, as well as a speech by Federal Reserve Board member Christopher Waller.

Market participants continue to assess the outlook for future Federal Reserve policy. Despite no new rate decisions, Fed officials maintain a hawkish tone, stressing the need to keep interest rates elevated until there are clear and sustained signs of inflation slowing. As a result, demand for the dollar remains strong; however, ahead of key data releases, investors are partially taking profits on long USD positions, contributing to a consolidation phase in the market.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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EUR/CHF: Which Central Bank Is Backing Its Currency Harder?

The EUR/CHF pair is trading within a clear divergence between the two central banks. The ECB raised rates by 25 basis points on 11 June, lifting the deposit rate to 2.40% — its first hike since 2023 — after eurozone inflation climbed to 3.2% in May on the back of the Middle East-driven energy shock. More recent signals suggest easing pressure, though, as falling oil prices following the peace agreement have reduced expectations of a further hike in July.

On the Swiss side, the SNB left rates unchanged at 0.00% on 18 June, while signalling greater readiness to intervene in the currency market to contain excessive franc strength. Despite the ECB's rate advantage, the franc remains structurally firm below parity, underpinned by its so-called safe-haven status and the still-fragile geopolitical backdrop. A renewed bout of risk-off sentiment could see the franc regain ground even against a higher-yielding euro.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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FTSE 100: Attempting a Breakout from the Triangle

On 30 June, Prime Minister Keir Starmer unveiled the Defence Investment Plan, which includes a £15 billion increase in defence spending as part of a nearly £300 billion four-year budget. The market reacted quickly: on 1 July, shares of Babcock, BAE Systems and Rolls-Royce gained between 1.1% and 5.2%, providing support for the FTSE 100 during the session. Offsetting this strength, healthcare and energy stocks came under pressure, with AstraZeneca and GSK falling 1.7% and 2.5%, while Shell and BP lost more than 2% as oil prices declined. As a result, the index closed the day 0.2% lower. Over a longer-term horizon, investors remain focused on the Bank of England's meeting on 30 July. The central bank has kept the base rate at 3.75%, while inflation risks remain elevated amid energy price dynamics and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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The Dollar Awaits the Week’s Key Report: AUD/USD and NZD/USD at Crucial Technical Levels

Following mixed performance by the US dollar earlier this week, investors are now fully focused on the June Nonfarm Payrolls report, which will be released on Thursday rather than Friday. The schedule has been brought forward as US financial markets will be closed on Friday to mark the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence. Today's report is expected to shape expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and set the direction for the US dollar through the remainder of the week.

Market participants will closely watch the unemployment rate, average hourly earnings and initial jobless claims, all of which will be released alongside the headline payrolls data. Following weaker-than-expected ADP employment figures, investors will be looking for confirmation that the US labour market remains resilient. Strong data could reinforce expectations that the Fed will maintain its hawkish stance, supporting the US dollar, while weaker figures may trigger profit-taking on long USD positions.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Oil Prices Are Back at Pre-Conflict Levels. Analysts Are Divided

At the start of May, oil markets were still pricing in elevated geopolitical risk and expectations of sustained supply disruption.

But easing tensions between Washington and Tehran, along with improving supply expectations, have rapidly shifted sentiment back toward fundamentals.

Brent crude has fallen back to around $71–74 per barrel
Prices are now close to pre-conflict levels after a drop of more than 35% since early May
The market is reassessing whether the geopolitical risk premium has been fully removed

The debate is now split between two clear narratives.

Bearish case: supply is recovering and demand remains uneven
Bullish case: geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz are still not fully priced in

The key question for markets is whether oil has already priced in good news — or whether volatility is simply paused, not gone.

Gain insights to strengthen your trading knowledge.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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S&P 500: Index Narrows Its Range as the Labour Market Cools

The broad US market index, the S&P 500, has entered July against a backdrop of mixed signals from the labour market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics report released on 2 July showed that just 57,000 jobs were added in June, well below market expectations, while the unemployment rate stood at 4.2%. Following the release, markets scaled back expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, although the possibility of an October increase remains. At the same time, the current 10% global tariff is due to expire at the end of July, and markets are gradually pricing in uncertainty surrounding future trade policy decisions.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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NZD/CHF Analysis: Which Currency Breaks the Consolidation First?

NZD/CHF remains locked in a tight range as traders await the next monetary policy catalyst.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand heads into Wednesday's meeting on shaky ground. After May's 3-3 split was resolved by a casting vote, the committee still lifted its rate path sharply, eyeing a 3.28% terminal rate by 2029. But the oil slide following the US-Iran truce has cut hike odds from over 80% to around 66-70%, splitting major banks between a hold and a further move.

Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank holds firm at 0% for a fourth straight meeting. Switzerland's challenge mirrors New Zealand's in reverse: subdued inflation rather than overheating, leaving little room—or need—for tightening. The franc's strength stems more from so-called safe-haven flows than rate differentials.

The result: NZDCHF caught between short-term RBNZ uncertainty and near-static Swiss policy, with direction hinging on Wednesday's decision.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Gold Resumes Its Advance Following the US Labour Market Report

Gold is attempting to break its medium-term trend, with the latest US labour market data acting as the main catalyst. The US employment report released on 2 July came in noticeably weaker than expected, with the pace of hiring slowing to its lowest level in several months. This may have dampened expectations of a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike, while the minutes of the Fed's June meeting, due to be released on 8 July, could provide further insight into how long this pause in the central bank's rhetoric is likely to last. For now, markets are pricing in a more dovish scenario, supporting safe-haven assets such as gold.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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EUR/USD Analysis: Who Is in Control?

Two central banks, two hawkish tones — but only one dollar just took a hit. The ECB delivered a 25bp hike in June, its first since 2023, lifting the deposit rate to 2.25% as Middle East-driven energy costs pushed headline inflation to 3.2% in May before easing to 2.8% in June, with growth downgraded to 0.8% amid weaker confidence.

The Fed, under new Chair Kevin Warsh, held rates at 3.50%-3.75% for a fourth straight meeting, with a hawkish dot-plot shift initially fueling hike expectations. However, the June employment report—released on July 3rd—showed nonfarm payrolls rising by just 57K against 110K expected, the weakest reading in four months, while the unemployment rate dipped to 4.2% only due to a labor force participation rate falling to 61.5%, its lowest level in five years.

The result: both central banks' communications currently lean hawkish, but with the Fed's data now sending mixed signals. Which side ultimately prevails could well set the tone for EUR/USD's trend into year-end.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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DAX 40: Can the Index Print Fresh Record Highs Once Again?

The DAX 40 has shed more than 2% over the past several sessions, breaking a rally that had pushed the index to record highs on the back of Germany's fiscal pivot toward defence, infrastructure and climate spending. The pullback raises a legitimate question: is this a healthy pause within an intact uptrend, or the start of a deeper correction?

On the macro front, the picture remains mixed but constructive. German durable goods orders surprised meaningfully to the upside, hinting that domestic industry may finally be turning a corner. That said, a portion of this year's projected GDP growth stems from calendar effects rather than genuine demand recovery.

Monetary policy offers the clearest explanation for the recent weakness. The ECB delivered its first hike since 2023 in June, and the shift in tone alone unsettled rate-sensitive DAX sectors like Financials and real estate, while a firmer euro added pressure on export-driven industrials.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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US Dollar Consolidates Ahead of FOMC Minutes Release

The US dollar has entered a period of consolidation following last week's sharp price swings, as market participants turn their attention to the release of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes. Investors are looking for additional guidance on the future path of interest rates and whether support for a hawkish monetary policy stance remains widespread within the Fed.

Further uncertainty was created by last week's mixed US labour market data, which raised concerns about the resilience of the US economy but did not trigger a significant reassessment of Federal Reserve policy expectations. Attention has now shifted to the FOMC minutes, with traders focusing on the Fed's assessment of inflation risks and its outlook for future interest rate decisions. Confirmation of a hawkish stance could provide fresh support for the US dollar, while a more cautious assessment of economic conditions may strengthen expectations of future policy easing.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Netflix: Attempting to Break the Short-Term Downtrend

Netflix is preparing to release its financial results for the second quarter of 2026. According to the company's official press release published on 15 June, the earnings report will be released on 16 July, followed by a video interview with management for investors. Back in April, when reporting its first-quarter results, the company warned that content spending would likely peak during the second quarter before moderating in the second half of the year. Investors are now looking to the July earnings release as the first opportunity to assess that forecast, as well as the pace of subscriber and advertising revenue growth.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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European Currencies Seek Stability Amid Rising Geopolitical Tensions

European currencies are showing mixed performance as they attempt to stabilise following their recent decline and the release of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes. The minutes revealed growing concern over persistent inflationary pressures, with several policymakers supporting the possibility of an immediate interest rate increase, while the majority maintained a more cautious approach to further monetary tightening. Overall, the document highlighted ongoing divisions within the Fed over the future path of interest rates but maintained a broadly hawkish backdrop for the US dollar, as further rate hikes have not been ruled out should inflation remain elevated.

Fresh uncertainty has also emerged from renewed tensions in the Middle East. Following the latest escalation between the United States and Iran, investors have once again shifted their focus to the risk of a broader regional conflict and the potential disruption of energy supplies through key shipping routes. Rising geopolitical tensions continue to support demand for safe-haven assets while increasing concerns that higher energy prices could fuel another wave of inflation, further complicating the Federal Reserve's prospects for policy easing. Against this backdrop, European currencies are attempting to stabilise, although persistent uncertainty continues to limit the scope for a sustained recovery.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Australian Dollar Holds Above the Current Market Profile

The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) June meeting, released on 30 June, suggested that policymakers are not yet ready to rule out further policy tightening. Board members noted persistent excess demand and broad-based inflationary pressures across the economy, leaving the door open for another interest rate increase if required. Against this backdrop, the interest rate differential between Australia and the United States continues to support the Australian dollar, particularly as markets have scaled back expectations for further tightening by the Fed in the coming months. This combination of a relatively hawkish RBA and a more cautious Fed has helped underpin demand for the Australian dollar, although further macroeconomic data from both economies will likely be needed to reinforce this trend.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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GBP/AUD Analysis: The Tug-of-War Begins

Oil is back in the driver's seat, and both the pound and the aussie are feeling its grip. The Bank of England held rates at 3.75% in June, but with UK inflation at 2.8% and crude oil climbing on renewed Middle East tensions, markets now lean towards a hike before year-end. Down under, the Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate at 4.35% after three straight increases, with core inflation stuck at 3.6%, keeping the door open for further tightening. Two hawkish central banks, one shared inflationary culprit—yet it's the existing 60-basis-point rate gap in Australia's favour that is giving GBP/AUD its current shape, with the pair holding firm near the 1.93 handle as traders watch which bank blinks first.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Weekly Market Insights with Gary Thomson: US Inflation, UK GDP, Chair Warsh Testimony, and Earnings

In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events and market trends, shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for insights into financial markets to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!

In this episode of Market Insights, Gary Thomson unpacks the strategic implications of the most critical events driving global markets.


Key topics covered in this episode:

- US Inflation Rate — 14 July, 3:30 PM GMT+3
- Fed Chair Warsh Testimony — 14–15 July
- UK GDP Data — 16 July, 9:00 AM GMT+3

US Earnings Season
The start of the US earnings season will offer an early look at corporate performance, with major banks reporting results. Investor focus will be on credit demand, consumer activity and the overall health of the US economy, with financial sector results potentially setting the tone for broader equity markets.

Geopolitical risks, especially around US-Iran tensions and energy markets, could remain an important driver of volatility across currencies, commodities and equities.

In this environment, traders closely monitor incoming data, being flexible and getting ready for short-term volatility.

Weekly Market Insights with Gary Thomson

Gain insights to strengthen your trading knowledge.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Amazon: New Bond Issuance to Fund AI Infrastructure

On 7 July, Amazon announced an eight-tranche bond offering worth at least $25 billion, with the proceeds expected to finance the construction of data centres and the expansion of its artificial intelligence infrastructure. Investor demand peaked at $62 billion, highlighting strong appetite for debt issued by major technology companies. Amazon has planned $200 billion in capital expenditure for 2026, up from $131 billion in 2025, with the majority of spending allocated to data centres, AI chips, and related infrastructure.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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USD/CAD: One Trendline Away From Deciding the Next Move

After several strongly positive weeks, USD/CAD has stalled over the past few sessions, entering a phase of uncertainty.

On the dollar side, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has struck a firm tone, reaffirming the 2% inflation target and pushing back against political pressure to cut rates, while sticky PCE inflation near 4% keeps hike odds alive for September. Yet June payrolls came in softer and speculative USD positioning looks stretched, raising doubts on how much further the rally can extend. Markets will also watch upcoming US CPI and PPI releases closely, as either gauge could reinforce the Fed hike case or, if softer, cap dollar strength.

The loonie's story is similarly mixed. Canada's June jobs report beat expectations, reducing the odds of a BoC cut, yet the currency remains capped by falling oil prices, subdued inflation, and unresolved CUSMA trade uncertainty. Two currencies face both genuine support and headwinds, leaving USD/CAD hostage to this week's BoC decision and incoming US data—a backdrop that aligns well with what the chart itself is showing.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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EUR/GBP: Trendline Support or Breakdown to New Lows?

EUR/GBP has slid to its weakest level in a year, as the two currencies continue to follow increasingly divergent paths. The ECB's June hike—its first since 2023—was meant to signal renewed hawkishness, but the very next inflation print undercut that narrative: price growth cooled from 3.2% to 2.8%, enough for markets to now assign an 88% probability that policymakers will simply hold steady at their July 23 meeting. In other words, the euro's tightening story may already be running out of road.

The pound, by contrast, is benefiting from a rare double tailwind. Domestically, much of the political uncertainty that had weighed on sterling appears to be fading as investors look past recent leadership turmoil, while falling mortgage rates and a sharp drop in diesel prices are easing cost-of-living pressure at home. On the policy side, traders are increasingly convinced the Bank of England still has room to hike before year-end, with odds now sitting near 76%—a stark contrast to the ECB's apparent pause.

Put simply, the euro's hawkish window looks to be closing, while the pound is gaining traction on two fronts at once. That divergence is exactly what's driving EUR/GBP toward these lows—and it's worth asking how much further it can run.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.