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    Russian Services Sector PMI Reached a Three-month High in Q3


    The services sector in Russia rose at the fastest rate in three months to September amid higher demand in new orders and hiring according to the survey on Wednesday.


    The Markit purchasing managers index (PMI) for the said sector increased to 55.2 in September from 54.2 in August. The figure stayed higher than the 50 mark which set apart increase from contraction since the second month of 2016. The survey showed a stronger output, new orders and high export demand boosted the manufacturing activity for the first time since August 2013.


    Experts that derived the conclusion that both foreign and domestic clients pushed the high demand for new orders. At the same time, a good business environment contributed in improving the business confidence and adjust the anticipated output higher to an eight-month high.


    The expansion of business since the end month of 2012 has been at the fastest rate that backed up the rise of employment growth. Moreover, the workforce has significantly increased at the swiftest rate since May 2013 as mentioned by an IHS Markit economist Sian Jones.


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    Politically Impelled Depreciation of New Zealand Dollar


    A decline in the local dollar is anticipated as warned by the leader of the small nationalist party which will determine the next government of the country following the uncertain outcome of the general election. The New Zealand dollar dropped to its lowest value since the latter part of May on Monday after the final counting of votes at the weekend which exhibits the opposition of the Labour-Green bloc leading paired against the ruling National party. Although, the National party occupies a greater number of seats.

    After the final counting of numbers, there is a market speculation that the New Zealand first leader , WInston Peters, has to receive support from both parties to reach sufficient supporters to oversee the proportional representation system of the country and would be easier to work together along with the center-left Labour-Green bloc, inducing investors to sell their assets in New Zealand.

    Peters negotiated with both Labour and National parties on Tuesday. He has previously served the ruling party headed by both political bodies. Once the election has ended, he was anticipated to publicize with the party would he be associated with on October 12. Yet, reports from media say that he was not ready to announce his preferred coalition by Thursday and cannot decide if there will be an announcement on Friday.

    The New Zealand currency plunged by 3.7 percent since the election on September 23rd. It reached a four-month low of $0.7052 on Monday then rose the following day traded at $0.7063.

    Consequently, exporters will find this news a good event being an export-reliant nation as said by Winston Peters after its meeting with Labour when he was being interrogated about the depreciation of the currency.

    The nationalist party supports the arbitration of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in the foreign exchange market and the kiwi is ranked as 11th eleventh in the currency market in 2016. On the other hand, the Labour party supports some revisions in the mandate of the central bank related with inflation. The Labour party has more commonality with the protocols of NZ First and putting more pressure in the market regarding the changes in policies since the National has more control over 10 years. At the same time, both parties also favor the adjustments in immigration, foreign proprietorship, and renegotiation of some trade deals. Peters has not given any decisions but he mentioned that control in foreign ownership will be his focus on most of the talks.
     
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    Finance Minister Le Maire Confident for Optimistic French Economy


    Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire is present in the conference with central bankers and Group of 20 finance ministers led by the International Monetary Fund. He met with JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Thursday. During the meeting held in Washington, Le Maire told officials his confidence towards the expected economic performance of France. Considering the determined behavior of Macron administration in implementing reforms. According to Le Maire, the main purpose of President Emmanuel Macron’s leadership is to give France a new and improved economy. There are different projections about French GDP but currently predicted to increase by 1.7 percent in 2017, which indicates the country’s strongest development after six years.


    The French Ministry of the Economy and Finance reported the continuous expansion with the same pace in 2018, however, the Finance Minister stated that it could possibly jump beyond official outlook.


    After Macron’s five months in the position, he successfully put into effect complex labor laws reform which enables companies to have more flexible environment working period and implementation of job cuts. Moreover, the French leader began to discuss with associations and corporate groups the intention to revamp employee training and unemployment-insurance system.


    The government also prepared the national budget for 2018 that will reduce taxes and public expenditures, Le Maire said.


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    Trump Administration Pushes Fair Trade Relationship with Japan


    The U.S. administration under Trump regime is aiming for a more levelheaded trade relationship with Japan as the prominent economic talks with the third largest Asian economy progressed this week in America, stated by U.S. Vice President Mike Pence.


    During the second-round of meeting between U.S. and Japan, Pence left comments including discourse between the White House Cabinet members and highest rank Japanese government authorities. Pence has shown immense interest to free trade deals during talks but the Japanese government official did not give more details on this.


    He also mentioned that the focus of this agreement is to guarantee the “free and fair trade” relationship particularly on trade and investment policies between the two countries. Both nations have initiated this talk in February and had their first course of talk in April. They have achieved initial progress in the second course of talks that includes the consensus to remove limitations on persimmons from Japan and potatoes from Idaho as mentioned to the statement given during Monday’s arbitration.


    The automobile industry has also improved while Japan acquiesces to streamline noise and emission testing on car exports for the United States. Moreover, both nations will publish a statement related to energy concerns that include liquefied natural gas and coal while foreign exchange was not part of the discussion.


    The U.S. President Donald Trump has been berating the mercantile trade deficit of their nation with Japan.although, this is just next in order to its gap with China amid the large volume of trade imports particularly on Japanese cars and electronics. The leader has clearly cited that he favors the bilateral trade deals and push it through to lessen trade disparity instead of multilateral agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership which he ended as soon as he became the president of America.


    Trump would meet the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in his next trip to Asia next month and the interest on trade and economic ties will surely be of great concern. On part of the Japan, the Japanese delegates have pointed out the relevance of U.S. and Japanese diplomatic ties which significant in the background of threats posed by North Korea with the capital’s missile and nuclear programs.


    A lot of businesses in U.S. aims to have a bilateral deal with Japan after their withdrawal from TPP that has greatly decreased the range of Japanese tariffs. This positions various U.S. companies at risk and they are on the downside compared to other countries who were still part of the agreement. On the other end, the Asian nation is open and hopeful to persuade the Western nation to be part once again of the TPP deal which was mediated over the years. This would be a stepping stone of the country to discuss topics on trade and investment rules as well as the Japanese investment on U.S. energy and infrastructure.


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    World Economy’s Best Performance in Ten Years Boosted by China


    The strong economic development of China boosted the global economy that has been perking up on its most excellent performance in 10 years. The world’s second-largest economy announced on Thursday the expansion of 6.8 percent during the third quarter, after central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan contemplated about the 7 percent pace for the second half over the weekend. Moreover, due to hints about the prospect of a sharp decline in 2018 could fade away, the economists of Goldman Sachs upgraded their projection by 6.5 percent increase next year.

    Indications of growth were clearly seen in Asia on Thursday, as the central bank of South Korea further raise its economic growth outlook for the current year, and exports from Japan attained double digits for three months straight in September, while the unemployment rate in Australia reduced surprisingly. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lifted its forecast for the United States, China, Europe, and Japan, stating that the global economy is performing at its fastest pace in a decade.


    The Washington-based IMF predicted the world economy will expand by 3.6 percent in 2017 and 3.7 percent in 2018, showing growth of 0.1 percentage point against the earlier estimate, with the Asian region contributed 63.3 percent for the development.


    The renewal of China’s import demand became the major support throughout Asia, coupled with the strong recovery in Asian exports to EU and US that made an upswing around the globe, according to chief Asia-Pacific economist Klaus Baader from Société Générale SA.


    Also, Zhou mentioned that the impetus for China’s acceleration in the second half is derived from the household consumption which was indicated in the statistics issued yesterday. While the retail sales grew by 10.3 percent last month earlier this year. Aside from consumption, the Chinese data includes government expenditure that provided 64.5 percent growth from Q1 to Q3 of 2017 which shows 2.8 percentage points higher versus the same period in 2016.


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    Unemployment Rate in France Drop in September


    The total unemployment figures of France reduce in September based on the records from the Labour Ministry issued on Tuesday. This encourages French President Emmanuel Macron to execute further efforts to improve the job market.

    The number of unemployed individuals in the mainland France was lowered down by 64,800 last month, this is the largest decrease since 1996.

    The 1.8 percent drop after a month and 0.5 percent within a year resulted in a total of 3,475,600 jobless people which is the lowest level from the month of April.

    The improvement was achieved due to reform efforts by Macron’s leadership that created more jobs and increased growth.


    President Macron is considering the reduction of unemployment in the country down to 10 percent for years, overhauling the rules of labor industry last month. This could be followed by some changes in unemployment benefits and professional training subsequently.

    The business confidence of France also perked up since Macron’s victory in May elections. The French politician pro-business reform agenda tend to shift company’s activities upwards in order to manage robust demand, according to a survey published on Tuesday morning.

    Moreover, the emergence of new businesses led companies to hire additional workers in October which could regulate rising backlogs, hence, this is the fastest pace recorded in a decade based on the monthly purchasing managers survey.


    On the other hand, industrial firms reported that their efficiency is moving towards the highest levels prior the outset of 2008-2009 global financial crisis indicated in a quarterly survey by the INSEE statistics agency on Tuesday. The expanding number of companies seems struggling to keep up with the demand. There are 32 percent of managers who admitted facing some congestion in the production system. This could be a positive indicator for the job markets considering that companies are forced to take more laborers in order to cope the demands of the client, therefore, reducing the unemployment rate.


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    US Economy Supported by Trade and Inventories


    The American economy unanticipatedly sustained the rapid momentum in Q3, as the inventory investment increased and the smaller trade deficit eased off the impact from hurricanes towards the fall in consumer expenditure and curbed in construction.


    The country’s GDP gained 3.0 percent at an annualized rate during the months of July until September, which further strengthened the robust business equipment spending as mentioned by the Commerce Department on Friday. While goods inventories for sale added nearly three-quarters of percentage point growth during the previous quarter and the improved GDP underlines the economic health. This excludes the inventory investment, the economy was able to advance by 2.3 percent rate against the slow down by 2.9 percent during the second quarter. The estimates for domestic demand also declined to 2.2 percent versus 3.3 percent obtained in Q2.


    The United States acquired 3.1 percent growth during the second quarter, and this was the first time that the U.S growth reached higher than 3 percent for two consecutive quarters. Forecasts from economists show that GDP will increase by 2.5 percent in the third quarter. According to the US administration, it seems difficult to determine the effect of hurricanes Harvey and Irma towards the GDP in the third quarter. Initial evaluation indicates that the subsequent storms generated losses amounted to $US10.4 billion of government-owned fixed assets and $US121.0 billion ($A157.8 billion) worth of privately owned fixed assets.


    Inventories cumulated from firms came in at $US35.8 billion in the Q3, which boosted inventory investment by 0.73 percentage point to GDP growth in the said quarter. The inventories contributed an output of more than tenth of percentage point in the previous period. While economists are expecting for a decent expansion from inventories in the last quarter. Despite the drop in the fourth quarter and surpassed the sharpest decline in imports for three years which led to a smaller trade deficit and provided four-tenths of percentage point to economic development. Trade supported the output for three quarters in a row.


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    Risk Warning: Foreign exchange is highly speculative and complex in nature, and may not be suitable for all investors. Forex trading may result to substantial gain or loss. Therefore, it is not advisable to invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before using the services offered by ForexMart, please acknowledge and understand the risks relative to forex trading. Seek financial advice, if necessary.
     
  12. Andrea ForexMart

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    RBNZ Hold Official Rates Steady



    Economists are expecting that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will maintain its official cash rate at 1.75 percent upon the publication of its monetary policy statement scheduled on Thursday. However, the schedule of future hikes appears to be dull until the new policies of the Labour-led government were already established. Either way, the rate increase still does not have specified time in the future. Most likely, the hike will happen at the end of 2018 while forecasts from the central bank show that the raise will hit at the end of 2019.

    An upward pressure is expected on local monetary policy, particularly on interest rates from foreign regions since the bank aims to ease off remaining artificially low rates since the Financial crisis of 2007–2008.


    In the previous week, the BOE implemented a rate hike after 10 years, raising from 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent. The Fed Reserve is known to lift its rates twice in 2017 and maintained within the range of 1 to 1.25 percent, however, some comments opposing the market expectations affected the rates and tend to increase again this December. In October, the European Central Bank mentioned that it plans to reduce the level of bond purchases for each month along with the leading yields of US 10-year bond that recently acquired 2.4 percent. Cameron Bagrie, ANZ chief economist, spoke about the slightly higher international signals compared with local rates.


    On the other hand, the financial markets are dealing with the future of new policy targets agreement (PTA) between the Reserve Bank and the Government. As indicated in the contract, the bank is obliged to maintain the next annual inflation within the average range of 1-3 percent in the medium term. Its focus is to manage future average inflation around the target midpoint of 2 percent. The employment intends to expand the deal in order to create an adequate level of labor rates as part of its objective while the political party NZ First discussed the policy revision.


    The total inflation for the year came in at 1.9 percent issued in September but new guidelines of the administration regarding wages and regional fuel taxes might influence prices to push higher. The greater-than-anticipated jobs figures last week highlighted a tighter labor market coupled with upside risks to inflation and surprised the RBNZ. The Reserve Bank explained that it anticipated for interest rate trends from overseas, especially from the US 10-year bond yield that serves as the major influence towards domestic rates.


    On Friday afternoon, the Kiwi dollar was down to US69.2c as the head of NZ First Winston Peters declared a coalition agreement last October 19.


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    Trump’s Approval Rating Declined: CNN poll


    The American citizens have high approval rating to the US economy prior the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, but the public’s confidence towards President Donald Trump has declined based on a new report. According to the result from CNN survey on Wednesday, there are 40 percent respondents who believe that Trump was able to fulfill his job and other election promises, indicating an 8 percent fall from April.


    In addition to it, the 40 percent stated that Trump has the capacity to improve what the country needs as to the total of 49 percent after the voting. The declivity was brought by Republican and independents in general. Since November 2016, the Republicans who say that Trump is able to perform the much-needed change of the US was reduced by 10 percent. On the other hand, there is a 9 percent decrease for independents.


    Nevertheless, there are 68% of respondents who consider the US economy healthy, the total was 11 percent higher before the inauguration of D.Trump. Contrarily, 59 percent expects for a better economic health in 2018. While 30 percent thinks Trump could further unify the country and not disunite it and 43 percent projected that he will strengthen the bond of the country in November 2016.


    The United States presidential approval rating gained 36 percent since the beginning of the week, this is the lowest score since he was designated in office. The CNN polling conceived during November 2 to 5 with 1, 021 adults as a random sample. The margin of error (plus or minus) is 3.6 percentage points.


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  15. Andrea ForexMart

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    VAT Returns of Small Firms Incorporates to UK GDP Calculation


    The Office for National Statistics evaluates the British economy by overhauling its way which includes huge VAT amounts from smaller companies for the first time. In the previous survey, the gross domestic product of the country was mainly based on the turnover of 45,000 largest firms. Since December, the data from the third of Britain’s 1.8m VAT returns will also be included in the turnover for the calculation of official GDP results.

    With this, assessing UK economic growth will have dramatic changes for this could provide further insights from particular areas and industries. A higher proportion of VAT returns involves small businesses with a total of 98pc of UK companies.


    In the past estimates of GDP, pubs and restaurants sectors, particularly "food and beverage service activities" have high levels according to the 172 monthly poll and 28,000 tax returns.

    According to the ONS, a much more detailed data will provide a comprehensive output of pubs, restaurants and takeaways and restaurants among various regions. The first new estimate encompasses VAT returns coming from small and medium businesses including 100 or fewer headcounts. While survey for large companies will remain to be part of the data gathering and ONS’s report. As there is only 20 percent of smaller firms in the UK economy, which means that the data accumulated by the national statistical institute will be more accurate but the overall GDP result could possibly be not altered despite its inclusion because major firms have a greater impact.


    Based on the perspective of PwC’s Economist John Hawksworth, it would be better if the Statistics authority will release GDP forecast “ with and without (the) use of the new VAT data" respectively, in order for the public to understand the difference. On the other hand, ONS chief economist Nick Vaughan announced that including additional information will be a gradual process.


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    Flat Economic Yield Curve Impact to the Economy


    The U.S. Treasury yield curve is intensifying concern as it has been moving flat at a quicker rate which could affect the outlook for the economy. Although, this is already expected since the slope of the curve has been a relevant tool because of its stability and positive track record. Oppositely, a narrow curve would mean a slowdown in growth.


    The economic signal has been more robust when there is an outright curve inversion, which happens when short-term yields are greater than those on longer-dated Treasuries. It is not the current situation but generally, people aim for 63 basis points. The difference between two- and 10-year Treasury yields have been reduced from 128 basis points in January which is the least gap since 2007 just before the recession began.


    There are investors who believe that the Treasury yield curve is enough to guarantee a change in the economic outlook but it is still far ahead. It is necessary to stabilize the changes in the yield curve of the financial market compared to the general economic yield curve.


    The spread between the federal funds rate and the nominal gross domestic product is the yield curve of the economy. This association is significant as it determined the ability of businesses and their consumers to afford higher borrowing costs which would ultimately affect the growth of the economy.


    Based on third-quarter data, the economy’s yield curve is near 300 basis points, which is can be achieved by taking the 4.1 percent annualized rate of growth in nominal GDP and deduct to the quarterly average of the federal funds rate of 1.15 percent. The spread widened by 65 basis points compared last year. However, despite the increase of 25 basis points by the Federal Reserve, the gap would increase the estimated by 4.5 percent to 5 percent growth in the nominal GDP which is already anticipated.


    Nevertheless, changes in the yield curve of the economy will be supported by the higher spread between the federal funds rate and nominal GDP growth amid a not-so-strong and restricted growth of the financial market. This would prop up profits and equities of businesses. The future perspective of the fixed-income market may not be that positive since higher growth would induce Fed to normalize monetary policy through rate hikes.


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    Japanese Government Additional Budget for FY2017

    The Japanese government allocated an extra budget of 2.7 to 2.9 trillion yen equivalent to $24-26 billion for the current fiscal year until March 2018. There is an extra budget estimated worth of 1 trillion yen to boost expenditures, according to the official sources from the government

    Moreover, the government will remove excess cash compared to last year’s fiscal budget and unutilized money from debt processes since the lending costs were lower-than-expected, according to reports.

    There is no plan to make up with a deficit in bond issuance as long as there is ambiguity since there is still uncertainty in the future plans.

    After a major election in October, the Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s cabinet members aims to boost childcare support, enhance productivity involving small and medium-sized companies which would toughen competition among agricultural, fishery and forestry industries.


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    Canadian Trade Deficit Fell Off


    The trade deficit in Canada slumped to a five-month low during the month of October sustained by the recent rebound in the declining exports. According to the report of Statistics Canada, the country’s trade deficit came in at $1.48-billion in the month. It further shrank from September’s $3.36-billion which is considered the least downturn since May that break the four-month trade downfall.


    The reversal was interrupted by the rebound in exports, which seems gloomy in the past months after it accelerated on its record highs in spring. Exports increased by 2.7 percent month on month in terms of value and also gained support by strong prices which boost volumes by 1.2 percent. Moreover, the recovery of exports indicates optimism towards the Canadian economy for the last quarter in 2017.


    The drop of exports has been regarded a major factor that dragged Canada in Q3, upon the sluggish GDP growth pace during the first half of the year. Moreover, exports could possibly buoy by the soft loonies, as it lowered down by 5 cents versus its American counterpart during early September and by the end of October.


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    France GDP Expected to Grow, says BoF


    The economy of France is projected to increase at a steady pace in October to December based on the poll led by the Bank of France. The gross domestic product of the country is predicted to rise by 0.5 percent in Q4, which remains steady from the second estimate published in November. The French economy grew by 0.5 percent in the third quarter.


    The data from the survey today indicates that the industrial production resumed growing until November. The business leaders mentioned that output is planned to increase at a consistent pace this month. Moreover, the manufacturing confidence index also sustained its score at 106 last month, versus the forecasted increase of 107. On the other hand, the service sector activity heightened in the previous month. Business executives expect for a slight increase in activity for this month. The services confidence index further showed a steady stance at 102 in November, as the construction activity had a sharp rise in the same month. The sentiment index in construction gained slightly from 103 to 104, which was the highest recorded since December 2007. According to forecast, the activity may grow at a hardly slower momentum in December.


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