Capital Trust Markets Daily Market Commentary

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

USDCHF breaks critical trend line ahead of ADP report

USCHF is trading lower post release of US ISM manufacturing index. The pair is under pressure overnight, as the market seems to be nervous ahead of Nonfarm payrolls and unemployment data, and corrective sequence appears to be over from the 0.8699 low.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI
During the yesterday’s NY session, US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was released, which registered a rise of 0.5 points from February's reading of 53.2 to 53.7. The outcome missed the expectations of 54.0, but overall result was satisfactory. This is 10th consecutive expansion in manufacturing.

Report highlights:
New Orders increased by 0.6 percentage points to 55.1 percent.
Production Index increased by 7.7 percentage points to 55.9 percent, up from February's reading of 48.2 percent.
Employment grew for the ninth consecutive month, but at a lower rate by 1.2 percentage.

The report certainly suggests that there is improvement in the overall economy. However, USDCHF buyers were not on the same page, as the pair declined post release.

ADP National Employment Report
Today at GMT 12:15 PM, US ADP National Employment report will be released. The forecast is slated for a gain of 195K jobs, and if outcome disappoints, then USDCHF might come under pressure in the coming session.

Technical Analysis
USDCHF sellers successfully managed to push the pair below an important bullish trend line connecting major all previous lows. The pair has also closed below 50 and 200 simple moving average on 4 hour timeframe. After the break, USDCHF retested the broken trend line, but failed to overtake it again. As of writing, sellers are struggling to take the pair lower below 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the move from 0.8699 low to recent 0.8896 high. There is a massive support around 0.8800 area where 100 SMA lies along with 50.0% retracement level.

The broken 50 SMA and trend line may continue to act as a hurdle for the pair. Only a break and close above swing resistance zone of 0.8850 would call for further gains. There is a huge divergence noted on RSI, which means recent break could turn out to be a false break.


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Prepared by Aayush Jindal, Chief Technical Strategist at Capital Trust Markets

 

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

Silver eyes $20.60 as triangle formation breaks

After Silver broke below the $20.00 mark and 61.8% retracement level between $18.64 and $22.16, the bearish swings slowed down and eventually stopped altogether. The last four business days have formed a range in the shape of a triangle formation.

The resistance of the triangle was confirmed by the 200 Moving Average on 1H and the 50 Moving Average on 4H timeframe. The triangle break-out and the move back above the $20.00 level indicates Silver will be searching for a lower high in the coming days.

Silver’s search for a high should lead towards $20.55/60, where buyers will find the first resistance in a confluence between the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and a price pivot zone from March.

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Prepared by Alexandru Z., Chief Currency Strategist at Capital Trust Markets

 

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

Technical Updates for April 03, 2014

[/IMG]EURUSD

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.The EURUSD 4H chart view has been presented here, which shows that near term support lines have been broken. A push lower is expected towards 1.3640/50 levels; the fibonacci extensions are pointing. Recommendations are to remain short for now, risk is at 1.3950. Please note that the resistance line is passing through 1.3850/60 region for now.

2.Immediate support is at 1.3640/50 followed by 1.3600, 1.3500 and lower, while resistance is at 1.3875, followed by 1.3960/70 levels respectively.

3.The structure reveals that the 1.3640/50 support should remain immediate target for bears to remain in control here. Resistance is around 1.3850/60 levels.

Trading recommendations:
Remain 50% short now, and remaining at 1.3850/60, stop at 1.3950, target open.




GBPUSD

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.The GBPUSD pair seems to have re-tested the 1.6650/60 handle before pulling back lower. At the moment, the pair seems poised to continue lower, possibly towards the 1.63/1.62 handle. The intermediary trend line bounce at 1.6450/60 should break to confirm further downside though. Recommendations are to remain short for now, risk is at 1.6750 levels.

2.Immediate support is at 1.6450/60 (intermediary), followed by 1.6250, 1.5850 and lower, while resistances are spread through 1.6780 and above 1.6800 respectively.

3.No change. The structure reveals that GBPUSD bears might be inclined to drag prices towards 1.6200 from here. 1.6460 remains the key for now. Short positions can be held though.

Trading recommendations:
Remain short; stop at 1.6750, target open.




AUDUSD

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.The AUDUSD remains locked between 0.9300 and 0.9220 for now. A push on either side would be required to instil further directional confidence. Please note that fibonacci 0.618 handle is at 0.9350 levels. Recommendations are to remain short for now, and look to initiate further shorts around the 0.9350 levels. Risk remains at 0.9450 for now.

2.The immediate support is at 0.9140/50(past resistance turned support), followed by 0.9000, 0.8900/30 and lower, while resistance is now at 0.9450, followed by 0.9530 and higher respectively on the daily chart.

3.The structure reveals that the corrective rally which begun from the 0.8650 levels might end around 0.9340/50 levels. A final push towards this region still cannot be ruled out for now.

Trading recommendations:
Remain 50% short now; stop at 0.9450, target is open.




USDCAD

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.The USDCAD enters into the 4th day of indecisiveness. The pair is trading in a very tight range between 1.1000 and 1.1050 levels for now. Please note that the back side of trend line is now reaching up to the 1.1140/50 level (approaching closer to 0.618 fibonacci resistance at 1.1170/80, as each day passes by). Recommendations are to remain long for short term, risk remains at 1.0950.

2.Supports are spread through 1.0950, 1.0900 and lower, while resistance is at 1.1150/70, followed by 1.1280, the recent swing high.

3.No change. The structure reveals that USDCAD could resume rally towards at least the backside of the trend line around 1.1140/50 levels now. Please note that upside potential still remains. Medium term support at 1.0950 is intact for now, and that should hold if bulls want to remain in control further.

Trading recommendations:

1.Aggressive setup, would be to remain long at 1.1050 levels, stop at 1.0950, target is open.
2.Reverse positions only on a bearish setup higher.





Prepared by Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst at Capital Trust Markets

 

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

Cable pops post Carney’s rate hike comments

GBPUSD traded higher in Asian session following rate hike comments from Bank of England’s governor Mark Carney. According to Reuters, “Interest rates could increase ahead of the next general election, the Bank of England Governor told The Northern Echo, but he wants to see more jobs created in the North-East before he will intervene”. These comments pushed GBPUSD higher, and pair traded as high as 1.6659. As of writing the pair is falling back towards 1.6640 support level.

UK construction PMI
During the yesterday’s European session, UK construction Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was published by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and Markit Economics, which registered a decline of 0.1 points from 62.6 to 62.5, missing the forecast of 63.0. However, the report highlighted that “overall output growth broadly unchanged in March”, which helped GBPUSD to regain ground.

UK services PMI
Today at GMT 08:30 AM, UK Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) will be released. The forecast is slated for a dip from 58.2 to 58.1. If the outcome exceeds the forecast, then GBPUSD might find buyers in the European session.

Technical Analysis
There is a triangle forming on the 4 hour timeframe just below a major descending trend line connecting previous highs. GBPUSD bounced from triangle support area following Carney’s comments and posted a daily high at 1.6659, but found sellers around the triangle resistance zone. If buyers succeed in breaking triangle resistance, then next major hurdle lies around a confluence zone of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of last bear leg from 1.6827 high to recent 1.6462 low and trend line connecting previous highs.

GBPUSD looks like consolidating ahead of major events scheduled in the coming sessions, and it would be interesting to see whether UK services PMI outcome would be able to trigger a break or not. Current price is 1.6648, with resistance ahead at 1.6660 (Triangle resistance), 1.6680 (Trend Line), 1.6685 (61.8% Fib) and 1.6710 (Swing high). Next support to the downside can be found at 1.6640 (4H 200 SMA), 1.6620 (Triangle support) and 1.6590 (4H 100 SMA).


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Prepared by Aayush Jindal, Chief Technical Strategist at Capital Trust Markets

 

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

Trading the ECB Interest Rate Decision with EUR/USD

The ECB is set to make its interest rate decision in today’s London trading session and traders are expecting to hear of further easing or loose monetary policy bias from the central bank. After all, data from the euro zone has been bleak lately and some officials are already clamoring for additional stimulus from the ECB.

So far, ECB President Draghi has not dropped any hints yet on what the central bank might do. Last month, an ECB policymaker was quoted saying that the option of negative deposit rates might be put back on the table. He mentioned this because he thinks the euro zone could use more help in terms of warding off deflation or keeping the exchange rate low so as to not discourage export activity. Another ECB official also mentioned the idea of adding bond purchases or expanding the LTRO.

Earlier this week though, ECB member Nowotny talked about the euro zone moving out of the recession. This provided a bit of support for EUR/USD, albeit momentarily.

Right now, the pair is stalling close to an area of interest visible on the longer-term time frames such as the daily chart. The 1.3800 major psychological level has held as resistance then support for EUR/USD price action starting from the last quarter of 2013.
The ECB monetary policy decision or even the tone of their statement could direct EUR/USD movement in the long run, as it would determine whether the 1.3800 mark would continue to hold as support or if it would break. If the latter takes place, EUR/USD might be on its way back to the next support zones around 1.3600 then at 1.3400. On the other hand, an upbeat statement might lead to gains until the 1.4000 level.

The odds favor a downbeat statement from Draghi, who has already shown an inkling for implementing negative deposit rates in the past. By doing this, the central bank can spur more lending activity as negative deposit rates would mean banks have to pay a fee to keep their cash stored in the ECB. With that, they would rather use this cash to encourage borrowing activity among businesses and consumers. As a result, spending and investment could pick up and eventually lead to stronger growth.

However, the ECB might decide to be a little more cautious for now and weigh its options. Other central banks, such as the BOE and RBNZ, have already expressed their tightening bias, and the ECB remains behind the pack when it comes to tightening policy.

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Prepared by Aayush Jindal, Chief Technical Strategist at Capital Trust Markets

 

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

NZDUSD smashed ahead of US jobs data

NZDUSD is trading lower Intraday as the market awaits US jobs data, which will be released during Friday’s NY session. The pair has formed three back-to-back bearish candles on Daily timeframe, which can be considered as a sign of weakness. Even better than expected Chinese HSBC Services PMI was unable to help the pair.

Chinese HSBC Services PMI and Non-Manufacturing PMI
During the Asian session, Chinese Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and HSBC Services PMI figures were published by China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) and HSBC respectively. HSBC Services PMI jumped to 51.9 from 51.0 and Non-Manufacturing PMI fell from 55.0 to 54.5. A point to note is that overall business activity was driven by the manufacturing sector, which posted its sharpest contraction of output since November 2011, according to the report. This might be one of the reasons for the decline in NZDUSD. The highlight of the report was that “employment rose for the first time in five months at the composite level”.

Technical Analysis
NZDUSD has breached an important ascending channel, which acted as support a number of times. The pair also broke 50 and 100 simple moving average on the 4 hour timeframe. As of writing, NZDUSD sellers are trying to push the price below 23.6% retracement level of the last major swing from 0.8049 low to recent 0.8698 high. One important thing to note here is that pair failed to breach 0.8700 barrier two times, which ignited bearish pressure in short term. A break and close below 23.6% Fib level might open the doors for further downside acceleration towards 200 SMA.

RSI is bouncing back from the extreme levels, and a major divergence is noted as well, which can be considered as an early-warning. On the upside, the broken channel support region might now act as resistance before 50 SMA steps in. The pair can also find sellers around 100 SMA, which could act as a barrier in the short term.

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Prepared by Aayush Jindal, Chief Technical Strategist at Capital Trust Markets

 

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

Technical Updates for April 04, 2014

EURUSD

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.The EURUSD daily chart view depicted here confirms our earlier discussions; bears remain in control. Furthermore, all rallies are being capped below the 1.3800/50 mark. As seen here, prices just returned from the trend line resistance at 1.3810/20. The sequence of lower lows and lower highs continues for now. Immediate downside targets seen at 1.3640/50. Recommendations are to remain short for now and also sell intraday rallies.

2. Immediate support is at 1.3640/50 followed by 1.3600, 1.3500 and lower, while resistance is at 1.3820, followed by 1.3875, 1.3960/70 levels respectively.

3.No change. The structure reveals that the 1.3640/50 support should remain immediate target for bears to remain in control here. Resistance is around 1.3850/60 levels.

Trading recommendations:
Remain 50% short now, and remaining at 1.3850/60, stop at 1.3950, target open.





GBPUSD

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.The GBPUSD pair reversed sharply as expected and is trading below the 1.66 handle for now. This could still be considered a pullback or retracement though. Bears need to take out the intermediary support at 1.6440/60 to remain in control and confirm further downside. Looking at the larger picture, the intermediary trend line support still holds. Recommendations are to remain short and look to sell intraday rallies as well from here on. Risk continues to remain at 1.6750.

2.Immediate support is at 1.6450/60 (intermediary), followed by 1.6250, 1.5850 and lower, while resistances are spread through 1.6780 and above 1.6800 respectively.

3.No change. The structure reveals that GBPUSD bears might be inclined to drag prices towards 1.6200 from here. 1.6460 remains the key for now. Short positions can be held though.

Trading recommendations:
Remain short; sell intraday rallies, stop at 1.6750, target open.





AUDUSD

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.The AUDUSD 8H chart view is shown here with the recent rally from 0.8650 to 0.9300 handle in view. As seen here, after reversing from the 0.9300 handle prices came as close to 0.9200 levels before pulling back again. The AUDUSD bulls are showing resilience here at the moment, not giving up easily. Short term resistance is seen around the 0.9265 region for now. Recommendations are to exit short positions for now and look to sell higher again.

2.No change. The immediate support is at 0.9140/50(past resistance turned support), followed by 0.9000, 0.8900/30 and lower, while resistance is now at 0.9265/0.9300 (intermediary), and followed by 0.9450, 0.9530 and higher respectively on the daily chart.

3.The structure reveals that the 0.9265/0.9300 handle should hold if bears want to remain in control further. A push higher through 0.9300 now, would bring back 0.9350 and 0.9450 in picture.

Trading recommendations:
Exit short positions. Flat for now.




USDCAD

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.The USDCAD sideways/consolidation continue for now. Prices have trade in a tight range of 50 pips. A bullish breakout is expected here, to rally through 1.1120/30 region at least. As seen here, the trend resistance is also around the same region for now. Recommendations are to remain long for now. Risk remains at 1.0950.

2.Supports are spread through 1.0950, 1.0900 and lower, while resistance is at 1.1120/30 (trend line), followed by 1.1150/70, 1.1280, the recent swing high.

3.The structure reveals that USDCAD could resume rally towards at least the backside of the trend line around 1.1140/50 levels now. Please note that upside potential still remains. Prices at times break trend line, trade sideways and continue moving in the direction of the larger trend. Medium term support at 1.0950 is intact for now, and that should hold if bulls want to remain in control further.

Trading recommendations:

1.Aggressive setup, would be to remain long at 1.1050 levels, stop at 1.0950, target is open.

2.Reverse positions only on a bearish setup higher.





Prepared by Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst at Capital Trust Markets

 

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

Euro sellers take control post Draghi’s dovish remarks

The European Central Bank press conference was the highlight of yesterday’s trading session. The central bank decided not to introduce any changes in interest rates as expected. Interest rate decision helped the Euro currency to gain ground, but an hour later ECB’s press conference ignited selling pressure. The pairs such as EURUSD, EURAUD and EURCAD moved lower. EURCAD dropped heavily during the ECB press conference.

Draghi Strikes..
The official statement highlights that “the economic analysis confirms our expectation of a prolonged period of low inflation followed by a gradual upward movement in HICP inflation rates towards levels closer to 2%. A cross-check with the signals from the monetary analysis confirms the picture of subdued underlying price pressures in the euro area over the medium term”. Mario Draghi sounded more dovish than previous meetings, which caught the attention of Euro buyers. Draghi indirectly mentioned the possibility of QE and negative interest rates if the threat of disinflation increases. He clearly mentioned, "we don't exclude further monetary-policy easing”.
EURCAD dived during the ECB press conference and tested an important support at around 1.5075 level, which also represent previous swing low.

Canadian unemployment report
During today’s US session, Canadian net change in employment, participation rate and unemployment rate will be published by the Statistics Canada. The market is expecting improvement in jobs created with unemployment rate is expected to remain steady around 7.0%. Any miss in outcome might boost EURCAD pair in the short term.

Technical Analysis
EURCAD tested the previous support zone at 1.5075 level, which again helped the pair to regain ground. Earlier during the week, EURCAD sellers managed to breach an important bullish trend line connecting all previous major lows. Now, there are two descending trend lines forming on the 4 hour timeframe. If the pair manages to break first trend line, then buyers might attempt to push the pair towards the next trend line resistance zone. All three simple moving averages (200, 100 and 50) lies around the trend line highlighted.

There is a strong divergence noted on RSI, which suggest that the pair might retrace some of the recent losses in the short term. On the downside, 1.5075 support level must hold in order to prevent further losses in the pair.


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Prepared by Aayush Jindal, Chief Technical Strategist at Capital Trust Markets

 

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

Technical Updates for April 07, 2014

EURJPY

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.The EURJPY is seen following through well after producing an evening star bearish signal last week. Furthermore, the reversal has come ahead of the 144.00 level and right at the cone resistance line as well, hence carries more significance. A break below 140.00 levels would confirm that bears are in full control to drag prices lower towards a potential 130.00 handle.
2.No change. Immediate resistance is at 143.80/144.00, followed by 145.50, while supports are spread through 138.50/139.00 (intermediary), 136.50 (intermediary), followed by 134.00 and lower respectively.
3.The structure reveals that EURJPY has held 144.00 levels for now and prices should head lower from here on. Only a reversal above 144.00 would change our bearish stance. Also note that prices reversed from the cone resistance line around 143.50 levels (the 5th leg resumption).

Trading recommendations:
Remain short, stop at 144.00, and target open.





GBPJPY

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.The GBPJPY reversal at trend line resistance ahead of 173.80 regions is shaping up well. A break below 168.00 levels should confirm that bears should remain in control from here on. Recommendations are to remain short, risk remains at 174.00 for now. Only a break above 173.50, would nullify our bearish view.

2.No change. Immediate intermediary support is the 164.00 region, followed by 157.00, 155.00 and lower, while resistance is at 173.70, followed by 174.00/50 respectively.

3.The structure reveals that the 5th leg has resumed within the cone consolidations. It is not a thumb rule, but 5th legs are normally seen to be breaking out of consolidations. If our assumption is right, prices should fall below 168.00 and continue lower.

Trading Recommendations:
Remain short, stop at 173.80, target is open. Flip trades only on a bullish breakout.





EURAUD

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.The EURAUD pair has formed fresh lows around the 1.4700 handle as seen here. Minimum implications are towards 1.4650 and 1.4460 levels from here on. Intraday rallies are possible though, before continuing lower. It is recommended to exit short positions for now and wait for counter trend rallies to materialize for initiating fresh short positions.

2.No change. Immediate support is at 1.44, followed by 1.43 and lower, while resistance is at 1.55 (intermediary), followed by 1.58.

3.The structure reveals that a counter trend rally could resume any time towards the 1.51 handle, which is support turned resistance now. Fresh short positions could be initiated there.

Trading recommendations:
Exit short positions. Look to sell on counter trend rallies.





Crude

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.Crude rallied through 102.00 levels after producing bullish reversal candle at sub 99.00 levels last week. It is recommended to hold long positions, but move risk to breakeven levels. A push through 102.20 levels now, would confirm that bulls remain in control and continue to print higher highs. On the flip side, if prices do break 99.00 levels, it would indicate further correction into 96.50 levels.
2.No change. Immediate support is at sub 97.00 and 96.00/50 levels (Fibonacci 0.618 support), followed by 94.00/30 and 92.00, while resistance is at 104.50/105.00 (intermediary), and followed by 108.00 and 110.00 respectively.
3. The structure remains in favour of bulls at the moment after bouncing off the 99.00 levels for now and reveals that they shall remain in control till prices stay above 94.00 levels. .

Trading recommendations:
Remain long, stop at breakeven, target is open.





Prepared by Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst at Capital Trust Markets

 

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

Technical Updates for April 08, 2014

EURAUD

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.The EURAUD produces a potential bullish reversal candlestick (Harami) yesterday around the 1.4700 handle, as expected. A pullback rally can be expected from current levels at least towards the 1.51-1.52 handle. Also note that the resistance line would also be converging around the same levels in next few days. Recommendations are to initiate long positions now, 1.4810, risk remains just below 1.4700. If the head and shoulder reversal setup holds, prices should remain well capped below the 1.54 and 1.55 handle.
2.No change. Immediate support is at 1.44, followed by 1.43 and lower, while resistance is at 1.55 (intermediary), followed by 1.58.
3.The structure reveals that a counter trend rally could resume any time towards the 1.51 handle, which is support turned resistance now. More conservative approach would be to initiate fresh short positions from higher levels.

Trading recommendations:
Initiate long positions now at 1.4810, stop below 1.47, target is open.





Crude

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.Crude continues to print higher highs and higher lows on shorter timeframes for now. The sub 99.00 levels, followed by 97.00 levels should hold. It is recommended to hold long positions, with risk to breakeven levels. A push through 102.20 levels is required to confirm that bulls remain in control and continue to print higher highs. On the flip side, if prices do break 99.00 levels, it would indicate further correction into 96.50 levels.
2.No change. Immediate support is at sub 97.00 and 96.00/50 levels (Fibonacci 0.618 support), followed by 94.00/30 and 92.00, while resistance is at 104.50/105.00 (intermediary), and followed by 108.00 and 110.00 respectively.
3. The structure remains in favour of bulls at the moment after bouncing off the 99.00 levels for now and reveals that they shall remain in control till prices stay above 94.00 levels. .

Trading recommendations:
Remain long; stop at breakeven, target is open.





Gold

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.Gold is poised to continue at least towards the $1,350.00 levels from here on; $1,277.00 should hold though. As seen here, back side of the trend line is also around the same region ($1,350.00). Recommendations for now, is to remain long, risk remains at $1,270.00. If the metal needs to continue its downtrend, the expected levels to reverse are also $1,350.00/55.00. A more conservative trading approach could be to remain flat for now and look to sell higher.
2.Immediate intermediary support is at $1,230.00/40.00, followed by $1,210.00 and lower, while resistance is at $1,350.00/60.00 region, followed by $1,388.00 respectively.
3.The structure still reveals that Gold rally should extend at least till the $1,350.00 levels if not further. Remain long for short term at least.

Trading recommendations:
Remain long, stop at $1,270.00, target open. OR Remain flat and look to go short at higher levels.





Silver

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.Silver base looks to have formed at sub $19.75 levels after pulling back yesterday. The next move should be up towards $21.70 and higher. Recommendations are to continue holding long positions and also look to add further at current price around $19.90. Expected upside targets are $23.00 and $24.00 at least. Bulls remain in control above $19.00 levels, remain long.
2.Immediate support remains at $19.00/50, followed by $18.75 and lower, while resistance is at $21.70/80(intermediary), followed by $22.10(intermediary) and $23.00 respectively.
3.No change. The structure reveals that bulls shall remain in control till prices remain above $19.00 levels from here on. A break below $19.00 shall be considered to be extremely bearish though.

Trading recommendations:
Remain long and add further, stop at $19.25, and target open.





Prepared by Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst at Capital Trust Markets

 

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

Strong U.K. data sustains GBP uptrend

GBP sentiment is very positive after today’s U.K. data. Both Manufacturing Production and Industrial Production increased more than expected. Total production increased by 0.9% between January and February, well above the 0.3% forecast. Manufacturing boasted a 1% increase against the same 0.3% forecast.

Technical Analysis

GBP/CHF was testing the support of an uptrending channel before the data release, with the 50 Simple Moving Average trailing along that line as well. This test formed a higher low at 1.4731, on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement on the most recent impulsive wave. With a higher low in place the trend remains bullish, so a higher high is up next.

The pair will be aiming towards 1.4862-1.4871, a major confluence between the resistance from February and 61.8% retracement on the downtrend from 1.5122 down to 1.4466. If price will break above 1.4862, the resistance of the channel goes as high as 1.4944, so there is plenty of upside potential.

The bullish trend will be invalidated only if price forms a large negative price action signal against 1.4862 or if the pair crosses below the most recent low at 1.4731.

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Prepared by Alexandru Z., Chief Currency Strategist at Capital Trust Markets

 

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

Technical Updates for April 09, 2014

EURAUD

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.The EURAUD long positions initiated yesterday has not been favourable till now since the pair seems to be testing recent swing lows around the 1.4700 handle for now. A break below 1.47 would warrant further downside towards 1.4460 levels. Recommendations are to remain long for now, risk remains at 1.4700. Please note that the head and shoulder reversal targets are towards 1.4460 at least.
2.No change. Immediate support is at 1.44, followed by 1.43 and lower, while resistance is at 1.55 (intermediary), followed by 1.58.
3.No change. The structure reveals that a counter trend rally could resume any time towards the 1.51 handle, which is support turned resistance now. More conservative approach would be to initiate fresh short positions from higher levels.

Trading recommendations:
Initiate long positions now at 1.4810, stop 1.47, target is open.





Crude

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.Crude has held recent lows at 99.00 levels and subsequently push above 102.00 handle. This opens doors for testing 105.00 levels and push higher towards 110.00. It is recommended to remain long for now, move risk to break even. Bulls remain in control till prices are above 99.00 in the near term. Strategy should remain buy on dips.
2.No change. Immediate support is at sub 97.00 and 96.00/50 levels (Fibonacci 0.618 support), followed by 94.00/30 and 92.00, while resistance is at 104.50/105.00 (intermediary), and followed by 108.00 and 110.00 respectively.
3. The structure remains in favour of bulls at the moment after bouncing off the 99.00 levels for now and reveals that they shall remain in control till prices stay above 99.00 levels in the near term and subsequently above 94.00 levels in the medium term. A break above the 105.00 handle should be encouraging to bulls.

Trading recommendations:
Remain long; stop at breakeven, target is open.





Gold

Technical outlook and chart setups:
1.There is no change in Gold from what was discussed yesterday. The yellow metal is poised to continue at least towards the $1,350.00 levels; $1,277.00 should hold though. As seen here, back side of the trend line is also around the same region ($1,350.00). Recommendations for now, is to remain long, risk remains at $1,270.00. If the metal needs to continue its downtrend, the expected levels to reverse are also $1,350.00/55.00. A more conservative trading approach could be to remain flat for now and look to sell higher.
2.Immediate intermediary support is at $1,230.00/40.00, followed by $1,210.00 and lower, while resistance is at $1,350.00/60.00 region, followed by $1,388.00 respectively.
3.No change. The structure still reveals that Gold rally should extend at least till the $1,350.00 levels if not further. Remain long for short term at least.

Trading recommendations:
Remain long, stop at $1,270.00, target open. OR Remain flat and look to go short at higher levels.





Silver

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.The structure remains absolutely unchanged from what was discussed earlier. Silver base looks to have formed at sub $19.75 levels after pulling back yesterday. The next move should be up towards $21.70 and higher. Recommendations are to continue holding long positions and also look to add further at current price around $19.90. Expected upside targets are $23.00 and $24.00 at least. Bulls remain in control above $19.00 levels, remain long.
2.Immediate support remains at $19.00/50, followed by $18.75 and lower, while resistance is at $21.70/80(intermediary), followed by $22.10(intermediary) and $23.00 respectively.
3.No change. The structure reveals that bulls shall remain in control till prices remain above $19.00 levels from here on. A break below $19.00 shall be considered to be extremely bearish though.

Trading recommendations:
Remain long and add further, stop at $19.25, and target open.




Prepared by Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst at Capital Trust Markets

 

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

Technical Updates for April 10, 2014

EURAUD

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.The EURAUD seems to be targeting 1.4650/60 at least before a meaningful retracement occurs. The setup remains the same as discussed earlier and selling counter trend rallies should be the strategy. It is recommended to remain flat for now and look to sell higher towards 1.51 and 1.52 again. A push below 1.4650, however would further want to test 1.4450 before a pullback.
2.No change. Immediate support is at 1.44, followed by 1.43 and lower, while resistance is at 1.55 (intermediary), followed by 1.58.
3.No change. The structure reveals that a counter trend rally could resume any time towards the 1.51 handle, which is support turned resistance now. More conservative approach would be to initiate fresh short positions from higher levels.

Trading recommendations:
Remain flat for now.





Crude

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.Crude has rallied towards the 104.00 handle now. It is recommended to exit long positions taken earlier for now. It is quite possible that Crude may not push above the 105.00 handle for now, and instead correct towards 96.50 again. Aggressive trade setup is to initiate 50% short positions now at, 103.25. Risk remains at 105.00 for now. A 3 wave corrective falls is still a possibility before the rally could resume towards 110.00 levels.
2.No change. Immediate support is at sub 97.00 and 96.00/50 levels (Fibonacci 0.618 support), followed by 94.00/30 and 92.00, while resistance is at 104.50/105.00 (intermediary), and followed by 108.00 and 110.00 respectively.
3. The structure remains in favour of bulls at the moment after bouncing off the 99.00 levels for now and reveals that they shall remain in control till prices stay above 99.00 levels in the near term and subsequently above 94.00 levels in the medium term. A corrective fall still remains possible from current levels towards 96.50, though.

Trading recommendations:
Exit long positions and remain flat. Aggressive trade setups is to initiate short positions, stop at 105.00, target is open.





Gold

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.There is no change in Gold from what was discussed yesterday. The yellow metal is poised to continue at least towards the $1,350.00 levels; $1,277.00 should hold though. As seen here, back side of the trend line is also around the same region ($1,350.00). Recommendations for now, is to remain long, risk remains at $1,277.00. If the metal needs to continue its downtrend, the expected levels to reverse are also $1,350.00/55.00. A more conservative trading approach could be to remain flat for now and look to sell higher.
2.Immediate support is at $1,230.00/40.00, followed by $1,210.00 and lower, while resistance is at $1,350.00/60.00 region, followed by $1,388.00 respectively.
3.No change. The structure still reveals that Gold rally should extend at least till the $1,350.00 levels if not further. Remain long for short term at least.

Trading recommendations:
Remain long, stop at $1,277.00, target open. OR Remain flat and look to go short at higher levels.





Silver

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.The structure remains absolutely unchanged from what was discussed earlier. Silver re-tested the lows at $19.61 levels yesterday before pulling back sharply. The metal is trading above $20.00 handle for now, and the next move should be up towards $21.70 and higher. Recommendations are to continue holding long positions and also look to add further. Expected upside targets are $23.00 and $24.00 at least. Bulls remain in control above $19.00 levels, remain long.
2.Immediate support remains at $19.00/50, followed by $18.75 and lower, while resistance is at $21.70/80(intermediary), followed by $22.10(intermediary) and $23.00 respectively.
3.No change. The structure reveals that bulls shall remain in control till prices remain above $19.00 levels from here on. A break below $19.00 shall be considered to be extremely bearish though.

Trading recommendations:
Remain long and add further, stop at $19.25, and target open.



Prepared by Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst at Capital Trust Markets

 

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

NZD/USD Approaching Next Resistance

NZD/USD has been in a strong uptrend for the most part of the year but the gains could encounter a ceiling, even after breaking the first barrier at the .8500 major psychological level. As you can see on the weekly time frame, NZD/USD is close to the three-year high of .8844 reached in Q2 2011.

The pair has been supported by rate hike expectations from the RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand), as the central bank already tightened monetary policy in their latest rate decision. On the other hand, the US economy is still facing plenty of challenges with its weaker than expected jobs growth and slow inflationary pressures.

Data from New Zealand has shown progress so far while the latest FOMC meeting minutes revealed that several Fed officials are still pessimistic about the U.S. economy’s prospects. This could weigh on the dollar in the near term and push NZD/USD closer to the previous peak.

Profit-taking my ensue at this point, which might lead to a sharp correction for NZD/USD at least until the broken .8500 resistance, which might now act as support. Take note that New Zealand has experienced a sharp drop in dairy exports, which might then weigh on overall economic growth and lead the RBNZ to be less upbeat.

In addition, the RBNZ hasn’t been very happy with the strong appreciation of the Kiwi so a bit of jawboning might take place in their next rate decision. After all, a higher value of local currency makes the country’s products more expensive in the international trade market, thereby weighing on affordability and demand. New Zealand is a country that relies heavily on its commodity and dairy exports so the central bank might be keen to boost demand for shipments.

With that, the pair might turn upon reaching the .8840 to .8850 minor psychological resistance and head back to the .8500 region if the RBNZ sounds less hawkish in their upcoming rate decision. The US dollar could draw support from a rebound in economic data, as hiring did pick up after all and might lead to a recovery in consumer spending.

A strong convincing break past the .8840 levels could lead to more gains for the New Zealand dollar, as traders rush to take advantage of the positive carry between the Kiwi and Greenback. Holding on positions for more than a day allows traders to cash in on the positive interest rate differential.

*********
Prepared by Aayush Jindal, Chief Technical Strategist at Capital Trust Markets

 

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

WILL GOLD BULLS BE ABLE TO EXTEND RALLY TOWARDS THE $1400 MILESTONE?

Gold extended upside movement on Thursday after dovish minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) March meeting threatening the $1334 resistance area. The precious metal is poised for a Higher High (HH) above $1392 as per technical projections.

Technical Analysis

As of this writing, the yellow metal is being traded near $1315 an ounce. Support may be noted around $1304, the 23.6% fib level, ahead of the channel support which is currently sitting in near $1287. A break and daily closing below the channel support will turn the short-term bias to bearish, validating a dip below the $1250 support area.

On the upside, the metal is expected to face hurdle around $1321 and then $1334 that are the 38% and 50% fib levels respectively. The long term sentiment is very bullish and will remain bullish as far as the double bottom support remains intact.

FOMC Minutes

The minutes from the FOMC March meeting scrapped the hawkish stance by the Fed char Janet Yellen who indicated the first rate hike as soon as the next six months while addressing the monetary policy press conference last month. The policymakers suggested that the median projection regarding the first rate hike from various economists was overstated.

China Trade Balance

The trade balance of China—the biggest buyer of gold—today posted more than expected $7.71 billion trade surplus for the previous month as compared to $22.98 billion trade deficit in the month before, analysts had predicted just $0.90 billion trade surplus for March hence the actual outcome upbeat the expectations by a long shot.

Conclusion

The precious metal is expected to continue upside movement towards the $1334 resistance area. Buying on dips could be a good strategy for the long term traders, targeting the $1400 milestone.

 

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

Technical Updates for April 11, 2014

EURAUD

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.The EURAUD reverses right from 1.4650 levels as discussed and expected. This could possibly be the beginning of a corrective counter trend rally towards 1.51/1.52 handle as seen here. The fibonacci ratios also point 1.52 as a potential upside target for this rally. Also note that the trend line resistance is also around the same level.
2.No change. Immediate support is at 1.44, followed by 1.43 and lower, while resistance is at 1.55 (intermediary), followed by 1.58.
3.The structure reveals that a counter trend rally could be shaping up at the moment towards 1.51/1.52 handle, which is support turned resistance now. More conservative approach would be to initiate fresh short positions from higher levels.

Trading recommendations:
1.Aggressive setup is to go long now, stop at 1.4640, target is open
2.Conservative approach is to remain flat for now and look to sell higher




Crude

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.Crude produces a doji candlestick pattern on the daily chart yesterday just shy of 104.00 handle as seen here. This indicates that probable next move could be lower from here, either towards 96.50 or 94.00 levels. It might trigger a corrective fall till 105.00 is intact.
2.No change. Immediate support is at sub 97.00 and 96.00/50 levels (Fibonacci 0.618 support), followed by 94.00/30 and 92.00, while resistance is at 104.50/105.00 (intermediary), and followed by 108.00 and 110.00 respectively.
3. No change. The structure remains in favour of bulls at the moment after bouncing off the 99.00 levels and reveals that they shall remain in control till prices stay above 99.00 levels in the near term and subsequently above 94.00 levels in the medium term. A corrective fall still remains possible from current levels towards 96.50, though.

Trading recommendations:
Remain short for now, stop at 105.00, target is open.





Gold

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.Gold is seen to be stalling at the fibonacci 0.382 resistance level (of down swing from $1,388.00 to $1,277.00) at $1,320.00 levels for now. It is quite possible that the metal corrects from current level before rallying further up. $1,300.00 could be possible intermediary support for any dips.
2.Immediate support is at $1,230.00/40.00, followed by $1,210.00 and lower, while resistance is at $1,350.00/60.00 region, followed by $1,388.00 respectively.
3.No change. The structure still reveals that Gold rally should extend at least till the $1,350.00 levels if not further. Pullbacks can occur towards $1,300.00 levels though.

Trading recommendations:
Exit long positions. Wait for further confirmation.





Silver

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.The structure remains absolutely unchanged from what was discussed earlier. Silver re-tested the lows at $19.61 levels before pulling back sharply and also printed highs at $20.40. The metal is trading above $20.00 handle for now, and the next move should be up towards $21.70 and higher. Recommendations are to continue holding long positions and also look to add further. Expected upside targets are $23.00 and $24.00 at least. Bulls remain in control above $19.00 levels, remain long.
2.Immediate support remains at $19.00/50, followed by $18.75 and lower, while resistance is at $21.70/80(intermediary), followed by $22.10(intermediary) and $23.00 respectively.
3. The structure reveals that bulls shall remain in control till prices remain above $19.00 levels from here on. A break below $19.00 shall be considered to be extremely bearish though.

Trading recommendations:
Remain long and add further, stop at $19.25, and target open.



Prepared by Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst at Capital Trust Markets

 

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

Technical Updated for April 14, 2014

EURAUD

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.The EURAUD is pulling back after printing highs at 1.4835 levels last week. The pair continues to remain bearish for now, but a counter trend rally into the 1.51/1.52 levels still cannot be ruled out. Please also note that the 1.51 handle is past support turned resistance now, and rallies through 1.51 should be taken as opportunity to go short again.
2.No change. Immediate support is at 1.44, followed by 1.43 and lower, while resistance is at 1.51/1.52 (intermediary), followed by 1.55 and 1.58 respectively.
3.The structure reveals that a counter trend rally could be shaping up at the moment towards 1.51/1.52 handle, which is support turned resistance now. More conservative approach would be to initiate fresh short positions from higher levels.

Trading recommendations:
1.Aggressive setup is to remain long now, stop at 1.4640, target is open
2.Conservative approach is to remain flat for now and look to sell higher





Crude

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.Crude reversal is still not materializing as expected last week. The 105.00 handle is intermediary top for now and a push higher could possibly trigger further push into the 110.00 levels as seen here. On the flip side, a bearish reversal ahead of 105.00 handle can bring down prices towards at least 96.50 levels.
2.No change. Immediate support is at sub 97.00 and 96.00/50 levels (Fibonacci 0.618 support), followed by 94.00/30 and 92.00, while resistance is at 104.50/105.00 (intermediary), and followed by 108.00 and 110.00 respectively.
3. No change. The structure remains in favour of bulls at the moment after bouncing off the 99.00 levels and reveals that they shall remain in control till prices stay above 99.00 levels in the near term and subsequently above 94.00 levels in the medium term. A corrective fall still remains possible from current levels towards 96.50, though.

Trading recommendations:
Remain short for now; stop at 105.00, target is open.





Gold

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.Gold is pushing higher towards $1,330.00 levels for now, above the fibonacci 0.382 resistances seen at $1,320.00 (the downswing from $1,388.00 to $1,277.00). A sustained push higher from current levels would target $1,345.00/50.00 levels. Please note that the trend line resistance is now seen at $1,360.00 levels. The metal remains buy on dips.
2.Immediate support is at $1,230.00/40.00, followed by $1,210.00 and lower, while resistance is at $1,350.00/60.00 region, followed by $1,388.00 respectively.
3.No change. The structure still reveals that Gold rally should extend at least till the $1,350.00 levels if not further. Pullbacks can occur towards $1,300.00 levels though; these are opportunities to go long again.

Trading recommendations:
Remain flat for now. Look to buy on dips.





Silver

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.The structure remains unchanged from what was discussed earlier. Silver re-tested the lows at $19.61 levels before pulling back sharply and also printed highs at $20.40. The metal is trading above $20.00 handle for now, and the next move should be up towards $21.70 and higher. Recommendations are to continue holding long positions and also look to add further. Expected upside targets are $23.00 and $24.00 at least. Bulls remain in control above $19.00 levels, remain long.
2.Immediate support remains at $19.00/50, followed by $18.75 and lower, while resistance is at $21.70/80(intermediary), followed by $22.10(intermediary) and $23.00 respectively.
3. The structure reveals that bulls shall remain in control till prices remain above $19.00 levels from here on. Only a break below $19.00 shall be considered to be extremely bearish.

Trading recommendations:
Remain long and add further, stop at $19.25, and target open.





Prepared by Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst at Capital Trust Markets

 

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

Technical Updates for April 15, 2014

EURAUD

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.The EURAUD pullback seems to be over and a counter trend rally maybe taking shape. The pair continues to remain bearish for now, but a counter trend rally into the 1.51/1.52 levels still cannot be ruled out. Please also note that the 1.51 handle is past support turned resistance now, and rallies through 1.51 should be taken as opportunity to go short again.
2.No change. Immediate support is at 1.44, followed by 1.43 and lower, while resistance is at 1.51/1.52 (intermediary), followed by 1.55 and 1.58 respectively.
3.The structure reveals that a counter trend rally could be shaping up at the moment towards 1.51/1.52 handle, which is support turned resistance now. More conservative approach would be to initiate fresh short positions from higher levels.

Trading recommendations:
1.Aggressive setup is to remain long now, stop at 1.4640, target is open
2.Conservative approach is to remain flat for now and look to sell higher





Crude

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.Crude reverses just ahead of the 105.00 handle yesterday. Till the time prices stay below 105.00, a push lower can be expected towards 96.50 at least. Only a break above 105.00 would push towards 110.00 levels. High probability remains that Crude corrects lower before the rally could resume.
2.No change. Immediate support is at sub 97.00 and 96.00/50 levels (Fibonacci 0.618 support), followed by 94.00/30 and 92.00, while resistance is at 104.50/105.00 (intermediary), and followed by 108.00 and 110.00 respectively.
3. No change. The structure remains in favour of bulls at the moment after bouncing off the 99.00 levels and reveals that they shall remain in control till prices stay above 99.00 levels in the near term and subsequently above 94.00 levels in the medium term. A corrective fall still remains possible from current levels towards 96.50, though.

Trading recommendations:
Remain short for now; stop at 105.00, target is open.





Gold

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.Gold is pulling back for now after touching $1,330.00 levels, above the fibonacci 0.382 resistances seen at $1,320.00 (the downswing from $1,388.00 to $1,277.00). A sustained push higher from current levels would target $1,345.00/50.00 levels. Please note that the trend line resistance is now seen at $1,360.00 levels. The metal remains buy on dips.
2.Immediate support is at $1,230.00/40.00, followed by $1,210.00 and lower, while resistance is at $1,350.00/60.00 region, followed by $1,388.00 respectively.
3.No change. The structure still reveals that Gold rally should extend at least till the $1,350.00 levels if not further. Pullbacks can occur towards $1,300.00 levels though; these are opportunities to go long again.

Trading recommendations:
Remain flat for now. Look to buy on dips. ($1300.00/10.00)





Silver

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.The structure remains unchanged from what was discussed earlier. Silver re-tested the lows at $19.61 levels before pulling back sharply and also printed highs at $20.40. The metal is trading at $19.90 handle for now, and the next move should be up towards $21.70 and higher. Recommendations are to continue holding long positions and also look to add further. Expected upside targets are $23.00 and $24.00 at least. Bulls remain in control above $19.00 levels.
2.Immediate support remains at $19.00/50, followed by $18.75 and lower, while resistance is at $21.70/80(intermediary), followed by $22.10(intermediary) and $23.00 respectively.
3. The structure reveals that bulls shall remain in control till prices remain above $19.00 levels from here on. Only a break below $19.00 shall be considered to be extremely bearish.

Trading recommendations:
Remain long and add further, stop at $19.25, and target open.




Prepared by Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst at Capital Trust Markets

 

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

Technical Updates for April 16, 2014

EURAUD

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.The EURAUD pullback seems to be over and a counter trend rally maybe taking shape. An engulfing bullish candle appearance confirms the same. The pair continues to remain bearish for now, but a counter trend rally into the 1.51/1.52 levels still cannot be ruled out. Please also note that the 1.51 handle is past support turned resistance now, and rallies through 1.51 should be taken as opportunity to go short again.
2.No change. Immediate support is at 1.44, followed by 1.43 and lower, while resistance is at 1.51/1.52 (intermediary), followed by 1.55 and 1.58 respectively.
3.The structure reveals that a counter trend rally could be shaping up at the moment towards 1.51/1.52 handle, which is support turned resistance now. More conservative approach would be to initiate fresh short positions from higher levels.

Trading recommendations:
1.Aggressive setup is to remain long now, stop at 1.4640, target is open
2.Conservative approach is to remain flat for now and look to sell higher





Crude

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.Crude reverses just ahead of the 105.00 handle yesterday. Till the time prices stay below 105.00, a push lower can be expected towards 96.50 at least. Only a break above 105.00 would push towards 110.00 levels. High probability remains that Crude corrects lower before the rally could resume.
2.No change. Immediate support is at sub 97.00 and 96.00/50 levels (Fibonacci 0.618 support), followed by 94.00/30 and 92.00, while resistance is at 104.50/105.00 (intermediary), and followed by 108.00 and 110.00 respectively.
3. No change. The structure remains in favour of bulls at the moment after bouncing off the 99.00 levels and reveals that they shall remain in control till prices stay above 99.00 levels in the near term and subsequently above 94.00 levels in the medium term. A corrective fall still remains possible from current levels towards 96.50, though.

Trading recommendations:
Remain short for now; stop at 105.00, target is open.





Gold

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.Gold is pulling back for now after touching $1,330.00 levels, above the fibonacci 0.382 resistances seen at $1,320.00 (the downswing from $1,388.00 to $1,277.00). A sustained push higher from current levels would target $1,345.00/50.00 levels. Please note that the trend line resistance is now seen at $1,360.00 levels. The metal remains buy on dips till $1,277.00 remains intact.
2.Immediate support is at $1,230.00/40.00, followed by $1,210.00 and lower, while resistance is at $1,350.00/60.00 region, followed by $1,388.00 respectively.
3.No change. The structure still reveals that Gold rally should extend at least till the $1,350.00 levels if not further. Pullback has taken place into the expected territory of $1,300.00 now, for possible long positions.

Trading recommendations:
Long positions can be taken now, stop at $1,275.00, target is open.





Silver

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Silver is seen to be breaking the line of support for now around $19.30/50 handle. A bullish reversal from here could bring back bulls into action again but a break past $19.00 levels would be extremely bearish. Recommendations are to continue holding long positions and also look to add further, risk remains at $19.00 and bulls remain in control above $19.00 levels.
2.Immediate support remains at $19.00/50, followed by $18.75 and lower, while resistance is at $21.70/80(intermediary), followed by $22.10(intermediary) and $23.00 respectively.
3. The structure reveals that bulls shall remain in control till prices remain above $19.00 levels from here on. Only a break below $19.00 shall be considered to be extremely bearish.

Trading recommendations:
Remain flat after being stopped out yesterday.





Prepared by Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst at Capital Trust Markets

 

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

Technical Updates for April 17, 2014

EURAUD

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.The EURAUD pullback seems to be over and a counter trend rally maybe taking shape. An engulfing bullish candle appearance confirms the same. The pair continues to remain bearish for now, but a counter trend rally into the 1.51/1.52 levels still cannot be ruled out. Please also note that the 1.51 handle is past support turned resistance now, and rallies through 1.51 should be taken as opportunity to go short again. The 1.41 handle remains minimum expectations for now.
2.No change. Immediate support is at 1.44, followed by 1.43 and lower, while resistance is at 1.51/1.52 (intermediary), followed by 1.55 and 1.58 respectively.
3.The structure reveals that a counter trend rally could be shaping up at the moment towards 1.51/1.52 handle, which is support turned resistance now. More conservative approach would be to initiate fresh short positions from higher levels.

Trading recommendations:
1.Exit long positions for now.
2.Conservative approach is to remain flat for now and look to sell higher




Crude

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.Crude manages to touch 105.00 handle before reversing yesterday. Till the time prices stay below 105.00, a push lower can be expected towards 96.50 at least. Only a break above 105.00 would push towards 110.00 levels. High probability remains that Crude corrects lower before the rally could resume.
2.No change. Immediate support is at sub 97.00 and 96.00/50 levels (Fibonacci 0.618 support), followed by 94.00/30 and 92.00, while resistance is at 105.25 (intermediary), and followed by 108.00 and 110.00 respectively.
3. No change. The structure remains in favour of bulls at the moment after bouncing off the 99.00 levels and reveals that they shall remain in control till prices stay above 99.00 levels in the near term and subsequently above 94.00 levels in the medium term. A corrective fall still remains possible from current levels towards 96.50, though.

Trading recommendations:
1. Aggressive trade setup is to go short again; stop at 105.50 targets is open.
2. Conservative setup is to remain flat for now.




Gold

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.Gold pullback seems to be over around $1,290.00/$1,300.00 levels for now and the metal seems prepared to rally further high. A sustained push higher from current levels would target $1,345.00/50.00 levels. Please note that the trend line resistance is now seen at $1,360.00 levels. The metal remains buy on dips till $1,277.00 remains intact.
2.Immediate support is at $1,230.00/40.00, followed by $1,210.00 and lower, while resistance is at $1,350.00/60.00 region, followed by $1,388.00 respectively.
3.No change. The structure still reveals that Gold rally should extend at least till the $1,350.00 levels if not further. Pullback has taken place into the expected territory of $1,300.00 now, for possible long positions.

Trading recommendations:
Hold long positions, stop at $1,275.00, target is open.




Silver

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. It looked like Silver would break down the line of support yesterday but the metal has instead produced a doji around $19.30/50 levels as seen here. This is indicative of a possible up move and reversal higher into the $24.00 levels. Downside risk remains at $19.00.
2.Immediate support remains at $19.00/50, followed by $18.75 and lower, while resistance is at $21.70/80(intermediary), followed by $22.10(intermediary) and $23.00 respectively.
3. The structure reveals that bulls shall remain in control till prices remain above $19.00 levels from here on. Only a break below $19.00 shall be considered to be extremely bearish.

Trading recommendations:
Initiate long positions again at $19.50/60, stop at $18.90, target is open.





Prepared by Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst at Capital Trust Markets