Capital Street FX — Market Research & Analysis

CapitalStreet · Sep 17, 2026

Fed's First Hike Since 2023 Fuels a Tech-Led Wall Street Rebound as Oil Slips Toward $100 and Treasuries Rally

Wall Street is rebounding Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% in a unanimous vote — its first hike since 2023 — and signalled it isn't done, with 16 of 18 officials now pencilling in at least one more increase this year. By mid-morning the Nasdaq Composite is up about 1.6% near 26,382, the S&P 500 has added roughly 0.9% to 7,621 and the Dow is 0.4% higher at 51,679, recovering part of Wednesday's selloff on strength in AI, semiconductor and data-centre names. Treasuries are rallying too, with the 10-year yield down about 6bp to 4.94% as Chair Kevin Warsh's firm anti-inflation stance reassures bond investors, while WTI crude has briefly dipped below $100 as Saudi Arabia reroutes barrels through the Strait of Hormuz. The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% in a 6-3 vote earlier in the session.

Market at a Glance

Instrument	Price	Change	Note
USD/CAD	1.3995	+0.04%	Day range 1.3974–1.4002 — hovering near a one-month high as the Fed-BoC rate gap widens past 150bp
USD/CHF	0.8247	-0.10%	Day range 0.8222–0.8263 — consolidating just below a 16-month high
Gold (XAU/USD)	$4,366.89	+2.40%	Day range $4,257.74–$4,381.50 — clawing back Wednesday's post-Fed losses
Crude Oil (WTI)	$100.90	-1.11%	Day range $99.10–$102.47 — briefly traded below $100 on Saudi Hormuz rerouting
Nasdaq 100	29,423.78	+1.65%	Day range 29,305.90–29,444.16 — tech leads the post-Fed rebound
US 20Y Yield	5.330%	-6.9bp	Day range 5.327%–5.393% — long end eases as Treasuries rally
BTC/USD	$76,668	+0.69%	Day range $75,950–$77,083 — stabilising after the CLARITY Act setback
XRP/USD	$1.306	+0.59%	Day range $1.289–$1.319 — defending the $1.25–$1.28 support cluster

What Is Driving the Session

The Fed hikes for the first time since 2023 and signals more to come

The FOMC lifted rates 25bp to 3.75–4.00% in a unanimous vote, and updated projections show 16 of 18 officials expecting at least one more increase this year. Chair Kevin Warsh told reporters inflation "is too high and has been for too long," and money markets now assign roughly even odds to another move in October. The decision is the dominant driver behind today's Dollar strength, the Treasury rally and the cautious tone across equities and crypto.

Wall Street rebounds as AI and chip stocks lead a post-Fed bounce

After Wednesday's selloff, stocks are recovering: the Nasdaq is up about 1.6% near 26,382, the S&P 500 has gained roughly 0.9% to 7,621 and the Dow is 0.4% higher at 51,679. Technology, consumer discretionary and materials are leading, while financials and energy lag. Prominent warnings about AI valuations are keeping the rally on a short leash, leaving today's bounce vulnerable to a reversal if sentiment sours again.

Mixed US data reinforces the hawkish backdrop

Initial jobless claims fell to 196,000, well below the 208,000 expected, while the Philadelphia Fed index cooled to 37.8 from 47.4 but still beat forecasts near 30.5, with its prices-paid gauge jumping to 48.6. Housing was the weak spot: August starts fell 2.6% to a 1.275M pace, below the 1.309M expected, as climbing mortgage rates weigh on activity. Taken together, the data keeps the door open for further Fed tightening even as one pocket of the economy — housing — shows clear strain.

Oil slides on Saudi rerouting, while Treasuries rally and gold rebounds

WTI crude briefly dipped below $100 and is trading near $100.90, down about 1.1%, after reports that Saudi Arabia is moving more barrels through the Strait of Hormuz via ship-to-ship transfers off Oman while its East-West pipeline remains shut; Rapidan Energy still sees Saudi exports down roughly 400,000 bpd this month. Treasuries are rallying on Chair Warsh's inflation resolve, with the 10-year yield down about 6bp to 4.94% and the 20-year near 5.330%. Gold has bounced over 2% to around $4,367 an ounce, clawing back Wednesday's dip toward $4,230.

Crypto stabilises after the CLARITY Act setback

The Senate's 49-50 procedural vote on Tuesday stalled the CLARITY Act, triggering a broad selloff that hit altcoins hardest. Bitcoin is up about 0.7% near $76,668 and has held up better than peers as it increasingly trades like a macro asset alongside gold, even after roughly $450 million in spot-ETF outflows on September 15. XRP is defending the $1.25–$1.28 support cluster near $1.306, helped by continued modest inflows into spot XRP ETFs despite the regulatory setback.

Trade Setups

All levels are reference points for educational discussion only and do not constitute personal investment advice. Fast-moving Fed, Saudi supply and crypto-regulation headlines can reverse any of these positions sharply.

USD/CAD — 1.3995 (+0.04%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish
Levels

Entry: Buy 1.3940
Stop: 1.3895
Target: 1.4080

Thesis
A 150-basis-point-plus policy gap after the Fed's hike to 3.75–4.00% against the Bank of Canada's 2.25% is a genuine tailwind, while today's slide in crude removes some support from the oil-linked Loonie.
Exit if

Crude oil spikes sharply on renewed Hormuz headlines, reviving the Loonie.
The Dollar pulls back broadly as Treasury yields ease further.
Close below 1.3895.

USD/CHF — 0.8247 (-0.10%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish
Levels

Entry: Buy 0.8210
Stop: 0.8165
Target: 0.8340

Thesis
The widest Fed-SNB rate gap in years, with markets pricing little chance of a Swiss hike this year, makes the Franc an attractive funding currency and a genuine tailwind for the pair.
Exit if

Middle East tensions or an equity wobble trigger defensive Franc flows.
The SNB's September assessment surprises hawkishly.
Close above 0.8165 fails to hold as support.

Gold (XAU/USD) — $4,366.89 (+2.40%)

Stance: Buy dips — neutral-to-bullish
Levels

Entry: Buy $4,265.00
Stop: $4,215.00
Target: $4,420.00

Thesis
Bargain buying after Wednesday's flush toward $4,230 and easing Treasury yields are a genuine tailwind, with long-run fiscal worries still underpinning demand.
Exit if

The Dollar extends its move to fresh seven-week highs.
The Fed signals additional hikes are imminent.
Close below $4,215.00.

Crude Oil (WTI) — $100.90 (-1.11%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish
Levels

Entry: Buy $98.80
Stop: $96.80
Target: $104.50

Thesis
An East-West pipeline outage that could last weeks or months, plus an unresolved Strait of Hormuz standoff, keeps a floor under prices even as Saudi's ship-to-ship workaround pressures the near-term tape.
Exit if

The Saudi pipeline outage is resolved faster than expected.
Washington confirms the Hormuz disruption is short-lived.
Close below $96.80.

Nasdaq 100 — 29,423.78 (+1.65%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish
Levels

Entry: Buy 29,150.00
Stop: 28,880.00
Target: 29,850.00

Thesis
A strong rebound in AI, semiconductor and data-centre names, helped by easing Treasury yields, is a genuine tailwind — though a 10-year yield still close to 5% keeps the rally fragile.
Exit if

High-profile investors escalate warnings on AI valuations.
The 10-year yield reverses back above 5%.
Close below 28,880.00.

US 20Y Yield — 5.330% (-6.9bp)

Stance: Sell yield bounces — bearish
Levels

Entry: Sell yield 5.380%
Stop: 5.450%
Target: 5.230%

Thesis
Chair Warsh's firm anti-inflation stance has reassured bond buyers and pulled long-dated yields lower, while softer oil trims the inflation impulse — a genuine tailwind for bond prices.
Exit if

Heavy Treasury supply or fresh fiscal concerns hit the market.
Oil spikes again on renewed Hormuz risk.
Close above 5.450%.

BTC/USD — $76,668 (+0.69%)

Stance: Buy dips — neutral-to-bullish
Levels

Entry: Buy $75,000
Stop: $73,800
Target: $78,600

Thesis
Bitcoin has absorbed the failed CLARITY Act cloture vote better than most altcoins and is trading more like a macro asset alongside gold, a genuine tailwind for a recovery toward $78,000.
Exit if

Spot-ETF outflows accelerate further.
The Fed's hawkish signal drives a broader risk-off move.
Close below $73,800.

XRP/USD — $1.306 (+0.59%)

Stance: Buy dips — neutral-to-bullish
Levels

Entry: Buy $1.260
Stop: $1.190
Target: $1.420

Thesis
Continued spot XRP ETF inflows through the selloff and a well-defined support cluster are a genuine tailwind for a tactical bounce.
Exit if

The CLARITY Act setback triggers renewed regulatory-risk selling.
Broader crypto risk sentiment deteriorates.
Close below $1.25.

What to Watch — Rest of the Day

Time	Event	Note
Wed, 16 Sep (passed)	FOMC Rate Decision	Hiked 25bp to 3.75–4.00%, unanimous; 16 of 18 officials see another hike in 2026
07:00 ET	Bank of England Rate Decision	Held Bank Rate at 3.75% in a 6-3 vote
08:30 ET	Initial / Continuing Jobless Claims	196K vs 208K cons.; continuing 1.730M vs 1.78M cons.
08:30 ET	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing (Sep)	37.8 vs ~30.5 cons.; prices paid 48.6 vs 40.9
08:30 ET	Housing Starts / Building Permits (Aug)	Starts 1.275M vs 1.309M cons.; permits 1.394M vs 1.410M cons.
10:00 ET	Pending Home Sales (Aug)	Secondary catalyst for yields and rate-sensitive sectors
Ongoing	Saudi East-West Pipeline / Strait of Hormuz	Crude rerouted via ship-to-ship transfers off Oman — dominant driver for WTI and USD/CAD

Analyst View — Rest of the US Session

Thursday's session is defined by the market's digestion of Wednesday's Fed hike to 3.75–4.00% and its signal that more tightening is likely this year. The tech-led equity rebound and the pullback in Treasury yields both reflect relief that Chair Warsh's firm anti-inflation message, rather than the hike itself, is what's shaping sentiment — but with the 10-year still close to 5%, the bounce should be treated as tactical rather than a clean trend reversal.
Currencies remain anchored to the widening US rate advantage: USD/CAD and USD/CHF both favour buying dips while the Fed holds the hawkish line. Crude's slide is a genuine near-term move, but the unresolved Saudi pipeline outage argues against chasing it lower. Gold's rebound and the Treasury rally both hinge on yields continuing to ease; a reversal back toward 5% on the 10-year would cap both quickly. In crypto, Bitcoin's relative resilience versus XRP and other altcoins should be read as a flight to the more macro-correlated asset rather than a sign the CLARITY Act setback is fully behind the market.
CSFX's highest-conviction session idea: stay with the Dollar's rate advantage by buying dips in USD/CAD and USD/CHF while the Fed keeps further hikes on the table, treat the Nasdaq 100 rebound as tactical while the 10-year sits just under 5%, keep a constructive bias on crude dips given the unresolved Saudi outage, and treat crypto bounces as tactical until the US regulatory picture clears. The decisive variables for the rest of the session are whether Treasury yields keep easing, how crude reacts to further Hormuz and pipeline headlines, and whether the tech-led rebound holds into the close.

Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/wall-street-rebounds-17-september-2026

CapitalStreet · Sep 19, 2026

Xi Heads to Washington, Yen Sits on Intervention Watch and RBA Hike Looms as Asia Braces for a Holiday-Thinned Week

Asian markets enter a holiday-shortened but event-heavy week. Japan is closed Monday to Wednesday for Silver Week, South Korea shuts for Chuseok on Thursday and Friday, and mainland China's exchanges close Friday for Mid-Autumn. On Thursday, Xi Jinping meets Donald Trump in Washington. USD/JPY opens near 156.80 after the Bank of Japan raised rates to 1.25% in a 7–2 vote, then pared gains on a reported "rate check". AUD/USD at 0.7120 counts down to a heavily priced RBA hike on 28–29 September. Copper at $6.63/lb has gained four sessions in a row, the Hang Seng closed Friday at 24,750, and XRP and Litecoin trade the aftermath of the failed CLARITY Act vote.

Market at a Glance

Instrument	Price	Change	Note
USD/JPY	156.80	Firmer	Support 154.80, resistance 158.10. BOJ hike disappointed, rate check pared gains. Tokyo shut until Thursday
AUD/USD	0.7120	Softer on the week	Support 0.7050, resistance 0.7210. No RBA meeting this week, hike heavily priced for 28–29 Sep
Copper	$6.63/lb	4th straight gain	Support $6.43, resistance $6.83. Chinese physical demand and Xi–Trump summit in view
Hang Seng	24,750	+0.6% Friday	Support 24,358, resistance 25,050. Tech Index +2.2% on summit hopes. Mainland closed Friday
Litecoin	$55.00	3rd session of recovery	Support $50.00, resistance $63.70. CLARITY Act stalled, SEC rulemaking next
XRP	$1.33	Roughly flat	Support $1.234, resistance $1.55. Holding the low $1.30s after the failed vote

What Is Driving the Week

The Xi–Trump summit is the marquee event for China-linked assets

Xi is due in Washington on Thursday for his second summit with Trump this year, with a state dinner expected that evening. The headlines will land in the late Asian evening and overnight into Friday. The agenda includes a possible extension of the tariff truce, Chinese purchases of US farm goods and Boeing aircraft, rare earths access, chip curbs, Taiwan and Iran. Reports of talks on trimming the tariff on US LNG and a mutual cut on about $30 billion of goods have built expectations. The Hang Seng, copper and AUD/USD all carry some optimism into the meeting, and a "sell the fact" reaction is possible if outcomes disappoint.

The yen faces intervention risk while Tokyo is closed for three days

The BOJ's 7–2 hike to 1.25%, the highest since 1995, came with two dovish dissents and no timetable from Governor Ueda. It failed to convince traders that more tightening is coming quickly, and the yen slid as far as 158.06. A Nikkei report of a BOJ rate check late Friday pulled USD/JPY back into the upper 156s. Japan's markets reopen Thursday, when the new rate takes effect. Core CPI at 1.7%, below the 2% target for an eighth straight month, helps explain the dissents. Officials ran a joint US–Japan intervention earlier this summer and have shown discomfort near 158. Thin holiday liquidity has been a recurring feature of past yen operations, so headlines from Japan's Ministry of Finance or the US Treasury can move the pair sharply.

A hawkish Fed meets the run-up to the RBA's 29 September decision

The Fed lifted rates to 3.75–4.00% with a unanimous vote and a median dot pointing to another 2026 hike. Goldman Sachs now expects October. That keeps the dollar and Treasury yields, which briefly topped 5% on the 10-year, as the global anchor. In Australia, Governor Bullock told a parliamentary committee on Friday that upside inflation risks appear to be materialising. A quarter-point hike to 4.60% is priced at roughly 80% to 96% depending on the gauge. With that priced in, Wednesday's flash PMIs and Thursday's August labour force report matter mainly for whether AUD/USD can hold above 0.7100.

Crypto trades the aftermath of the CLARITY Act's failed Senate vote

The Senate's 49–50 cloture defeat on Tuesday stalled the bill. Senator Tillis's motion to reconsider keeps a procedural route open, but Senator Lummis says the bill won't return soon, and colleagues point to the lame-duck session at best. Attention shifts to the SEC's Regulation Crypto Assets proposal, open for comment until 20 October, and to CFTC spot-market work. Spot crypto ETFs are on track for a second week of outflows above $420 million, and Bitcoin is stalling below $79,000, capped by its 50-week average near $78,760. XRP and Litecoin have few token-specific catalysts.

Trade Setups

All levels are reference points for educational discussion only and do not constitute personal investment advice. Holiday-thinned liquidity and event risk can move markets sharply with little warning.

USD/JPY — 156.80

Stance: Neutral, two-way risk
Levels

Support: 154.80
Pivot: 156.80
Resistance: 158.10

Thesis
The pair touched 158.06 on Friday after the split BOJ hike, then pulled back on the reported rate check. Officials look uncomfortable near 158, particularly after this summer's joint intervention that took the pair from around 164 to the mid-155s. The Fed's hawkish stance supports the dollar side, so the topside is capped by intervention risk and the downside by broad dollar strength.
Watch for

Ministry of Finance or US Treasury headlines while Tokyo is closed.
Thursday's Japan flash PMI and Friday's Tokyo CPI.
A break above 158.10 or below 154.80.

AUD/USD — 0.7120

Stance: Neutral
Levels

Support: 0.7050
Pivot: 0.7120
Resistance: 0.7210

Thesis
The pair dipped to 0.7087 on Thursday after the Fed, then rebounded on hawkish RBA commentary. With a hike largely priced, the data has more room to disappoint than to surprise. UOB has flagged risk toward 0.7050 while the pair stays below 0.7140.
Watch for

Wednesday's flash PMIs.
Thursday's labour force report (employment seen around +20,000, unemployment 4.5%).
A move through 0.7210, which would put the early-September highs back in view.

Copper — $6.63/lb

Stance: Constructive
Levels

Support: $6.43
Pivot: $6.63
Resistance: $6.83

Thesis
Four straight gains are backed by strong Chinese physical demand, with the Yangshan premium at $121 a ton, its highest since November 2022. A delay to the Trump administration's decision on refined-copper tariffs also helped. Fresh LME inflows have pushed London copper into contango, a reminder that near-term supply is ample. The August record near $6.83 is the topside marker.
Watch for

Monday's China loan prime rate and Thursday's summit.
Whether Chinese restocking persists ahead of Golden Week on 1 October.
A failure to hold $6.43.

Hang Seng — 24,750

Stance: Neutral
Levels

Support: 24,358
Pivot: 24,750
Resistance: 25,050

Thesis
The index closed Friday up 0.6%, led by chip and AI names, and was little changed on the week. The Fed's hike, Treasury yields above 5% and a Hong Kong Monetary Authority base-rate rise to 4.25% pressured property and financials. August data kept the growth debate alive, with factory output at +5.2%, retail sales at just +0.4% and fixed-asset investment down 7.2% year to date. On Friday, Shanghai and Shenzhen are shut and Stock Connect is closed while HKEX trades, so liquidity will be thin.
Watch for

Monday's LPR, expected unchanged at 3.00% and 3.50% for a 16th month.
Any Beijing stimulus headlines.
Renewed AI-chip export-control headlines from Washington.

Litecoin (LTC/USD) — $55.00

Stance: Neutral
Levels

Support: $50.00
Pivot: $55.00
Resistance: $63.70

Thesis
Litecoin has recovered for a third straight session from the $50 zone but lacks a token-specific catalyst. It trades largely as a beta play on broader crypto sentiment. Holiday closures thin liquidity late in the week, which can exaggerate moves in smaller-cap tokens.
Watch for

A hold above $50 to keep the recovery intact.
Improved risk appetite, which a push toward $63.70 would need.
Continued spot ETF outflows.

XRP (XRP/USD) — $1.33

Stance: Cautious
Levels

Support: $1.234
Pivot: $1.330
Resistance: $1.550

Thesis
XRP ended the week roughly flat despite the CLARITY Act's defeat, which prediction markets had widely priced. Regulators, not Congress, now set the near-term path. The $1.55 level, near the August rally high, is the topside reference.
Watch for

A hold above $1.234, which keeps the recent structure intact.
A break lower, which would leave the token vulnerable to a retest of the low $1.20s.
SEC and CFTC rulemaking headlines.

What to Watch — This Week

Times approximate, Hong Kong Time (HKT, UTC+8). Confirm exact release times before trading.

Time	Event	Note
Mon 21 Sep, all day	Japan market holiday (Respect for the Aged Day)	Yen trades in thinner liquidity after Friday's BOJ rate check
Mon 21 Sep, ~09:15	China Loan Prime Rate (1Y 3.00%, 5Y 3.50% expected)	Seen unchanged for a 16th month. A surprise cut would signal greater growth concern
Tue 22 Sep, all day	Japan market holiday (Citizens' Holiday)	Second closed day, intervention risk continues
Wed 23 Sep, ~01:00	US 2-Year Treasury Note Auction ($78bn)	Demand read on front-end yields after the Fed hike
Wed 23 Sep, all day	Japan market holiday (Autumnal Equinox Day)	Tokyo reopens Thursday
Wed 23 Sep, ~07:00 (TBC)	Australia flash PMIs (Sep)	Demand and price-pressure read before the RBA meeting
Wed 23 Sep, ~21:45 (TBC)	US flash PMIs (Sep)	Tests the US growth story after the Fed hike
Thu 24 Sep, ~08:30	Japan flash PMI (Sep)	First Tokyo session after the break. Manufacturing seen near 54.8, services near 52.6. BOJ's new 1.25% rate takes effect
Thu 24 Sep, ~09:30	Australia Labour Force Survey (Aug)	Employment seen around +20,000 after −15,800 in July, unemployment steady at 4.5%
Thu 24 Sep, night to Fri early (TBC)	Xi–Trump talks and state dinner	Tariff truce, ag and Boeing purchases, rare earths and chip curbs in focus
Thu–Fri 24–25 Sep	South Korea market holiday (Chuseok)	Adds to thin regional liquidity
Fri 25 Sep, ~07:30 (TBC)	Tokyo CPI (Sep)	Leading inflation read after national core CPI held at 1.7% in August
Fri 25 Sep, all day	China Mid-Autumn Festival	Shanghai, Shenzhen and Stock Connect closed. Taiwan closed. HKEX open
Fri 25 Sep, ~20:30	US Durable Goods Orders (Aug)	Capex read to close the week for the dollar
Ongoing	Middle East tensions and oil near $100	WTI settled at $96.08 Friday. Renewed escalation would pressure Asian equities and importers such as Japan
Weekend	Crypto trades 24/7	RBA meeting begins Monday 28 September. SEC comment period open until 20 October

Analyst View — The Week Ahead

Thursday is the pivot day. Xi meets Trump in Washington, Tokyo reopens with a flash PMI, and Australia releases its August labour force data. Before it, thin holiday liquidity leaves the yen exposed to intervention headlines. After it, Friday's Mid-Autumn closure of mainland exchanges and the RBA's meeting on 28–29 September keep positioning cautious.
The summit outcomes on tariffs, rare earths and chip curbs will drive the Hang Seng, copper and AUD/USD. A firm dollar and elevated yields remain the backdrop for every instrument. With the RBA hike heavily priced, AUD/USD has more room to disappoint on jobs data than to surprise. XRP and Litecoin lack token-specific catalysts, so ETF flows and macro sentiment will matter more to them than legislation.
CSFX's read for the week is that two-way risk dominates. Respect the 158 area in USD/JPY, treat summit optimism in China-linked assets as vulnerable to a "sell the fact" reaction, and size crypto positions for thin holiday liquidity. CSFX will publish intra-week updates as the summit, any yen intervention, Australia's jobs data and China's stimulus signals unfold.

Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/week-ahead-asia-21-25-september

CapitalStreet · Sep 21, 2026

USD/JPY Capped Below 157 With Japan Shut, KOSPI Reclaims 7,000 and Brent Slips 2% Ahead of Trump–Xi Summit

Asia trades cautiously Monday with Japan closed for a holiday. USD/JPY is capped below 157 as traders respect intervention risk after Friday's rate check, which pulled the pair back from a two-week high near 158. KOSPI reclaims 7,000 on a chip rebound, and Brent falls about 2% to near $101.7 as Saudi supply workarounds and Gulf diplomacy gain traction despite Houthi strikes on Riyadh. Copper holds just under its record high and crypto extends last week's bounce. Thursday's Trump–Xi summit is now the main event, and the key question for Europe is whether post-Fed dollar and yield strength holds.

Market at a Glance

Instrument	Price	Change	Note
USD/JPY	156.96	+0.05%	Day range 156.72–157.11, opened near 156.83. Japan holiday keeps liquidity thin, intervention risk caps upside
AUD/JPY	111.82	≈ Flat	Fri close 111.83 (range 110.82–112.62). Carry cross consolidates under Friday's high
Copper	$6.727/lb	+0.11%	Fourth straight session higher. Holding just under the ~6.83 record from August
Corn	≈534¢/bu	+1.3%	Prev close 527.25, Friday range 525.60–532.90. Bounce on US–China farm-trade optimism
KOSPI	6,982.92	+1.29%	Opened 6,938, prev close 6,894.23. Chips lead a rebound through 7,000
Dogecoin	$0.0885	+3.10%	Day range $0.0843–$0.0898, +5.75% over seven days. Extends the weekly rebound
Litecoin	≈$58.90	+1.2% (24h)	Consolidating between ~56.60 and 59.20, +21.9% over the month. Follows Bitcoin above $81,000

What Is Driving the Session

USD/JPY is capped below 157 as intervention risk meets a thin holiday market

The BoJ lifted its policy rate to 1.25% from 1.00% on Friday, a 31-year high, in a 7–2 vote. Softer August inflation and Governor Ueda's mixed press conference read as dovish, and the yen fell more than 1% as USD/JPY neared 158. Authorities then conducted a rate check, pulling the pair back below 157. With Japan closed until Thursday, official yen-support headlines can move USD/JPY and AUD/JPY sharply within minutes. Fed hike pricing offsets that threat: the Fed raised rates 25bp to 3.75–4.00% last week, and futures price roughly a 50% chance of another move in October. AUD/USD holds above 0.7100 on bets for another RBA hike, leaving AUD/JPY flat near 111.8.

KOSPI reclaims 7,000 and is Asia's cleanest risk-on signal

KOSPI opened at 6,938 and topped 7,000 for the first time since 9 September. It now trades near 6,983, up 1.29%, after a 2.66% gain on Friday. Samsung Electronics is up 3–4% and SK Hynix about 1%, helped by a second day of gains in US chip stocks, record early-September exports and foreign investors turning net buyers Friday for the first time in eight sessions. Buybacks at Samsung and SK Hynix are reportedly nearly complete, which removes a clear buyer, and holiday-thinned turnover ahead of Chuseok can exaggerate moves either way. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng gained 0.47% and Shanghai 0.51% after the PBOC left loan prime rates unchanged, while the ASX 200 was flat at 8,729 as tech hit a five-month low.

Oil slips, gold is rejected at $4,400 and grains bounce

Brent fell 2.07% to $101.72 and WTI to $98.22 as Aramco redirects cargoes via Hormuz and targets about half of the East-West pipeline's 7m b/d capacity within days. Gulf leaders are also pushing a US–Iran settlement, despite Houthi missile and drone attacks on Riyadh. Full pipeline capacity is still roughly six weeks away, so supply risk remains. Gold was rejected at $4,400 and trades near $4,396 in futures as the dollar index sits near 100.02 and the 10-year yield near 5%. Copper is up four sessions running, with the Yangshan premium at its highest since November 2022 and smelter maintenance expected from October to November. Corn and wheat rose after Sunday's constructive Bessent–He Lifeng talks, with wheat up 1.8% to $7.27, though funds are heavily long corn.

Crypto extends its rebound as regulation fears fade

Bitcoin holds above $81,000 (+1.1%) and Ethereum trades near $2,662 (+2.9%). Dogecoin is up 3.1% at $0.0885 and Litecoin is near $58.9. The CLARITY Act shock has faded, so crypto is now trading US yields and Trump–Xi headlines. Momentum is positive on lower timeframes, though DOGE remains down about 66% over a year and Litecoin has followed the crypto complex rather than led it.

Trade Setups

All setups are conditional and all levels are technical reference points for educational discussion only. They do not constitute personal investment advice. Holiday liquidity and official yen headlines can reverse any of these positions sharply.

USD/JPY — 156.96 (+0.05%)

Stance: Buy above 157.61 — conditional bullish
Levels

Entry: Buy 157.65–157.90 after a sustained 4-hour close above 157.61
Stop: 156.85
Target: 158.75 (extension 159.50, then 160.36)

Thesis
Price is capped below the 4-hour 200-SMA (157.61) and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (157.49), a dense overhead barrier. A sustained close above 157.61 would expose the 78.6% retracement at 158.75 and the 160.36 swing high. Daily technicals read Buy but weekly reads Sell, consistent with a 156.60–157.60 range until the ceiling breaks.
Exit if

A 1-hour close under 156.85.
Rejection below 157.50 followed by a break of 156.60 (opens 155.72 and 154.62).
Official yen-support headlines confirm intervention (152.85 is the deeper Fibonacci anchor).

AUD/JPY — 111.82 (≈ flat)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish while above 110.82
Levels

Entry: Buy 111.20–111.50 on a bullish 1-hour rejection
Stop: 110.70
Target: 112.62 (extension 113.80, then 115.04)

Thesis
A recovery inside a wider pullback from the 115.04 August high. Friday's 112.62 high is the immediate cap and 110.82 is the base. AUD/USD holds above 0.7100 on RBA hike bets and constructive US–China talks, though the PBOC's unchanged loan prime rates offset some of that support. Treat this as the risk-appetite expression of the USD/JPY thesis.
Exit if

A break below 110.82 (opens 110.10 and 109.65).
A 1-hour close under 110.70 after entry.
The yen rallies on intervention or the RBA disappoints.

Copper — $6.727/lb (+0.11%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish while above 6.60
Levels

Entry: Buy 6.660–6.700 on a bullish 1-hour rejection
Stop: 6.590
Target: 6.830 (extension 6.900, then 7.000)

Thesis
The uptrend is intact and copper sits just under the August record near 6.83, with 6.75 as the intermediate barrier. LME copper settled at $14,563 per tonne and the Yangshan premium, a gauge of Chinese import demand, hit its highest since November 2022. A clean 1-hour close above 6.83 would be a momentum signal toward 6.90 and 7.00.
Exit if

A daily close below 6.60 (exposes 6.50).
A Trump–Xi outcome revives tariff threats on Chinese goods.
Weak Chinese demand data.

Corn — ≈534¢/bu (+1.3%)

Stance: Buy pullbacks — neutral-to-bullish above 532.90
Levels

Entry: Buy 532.90–535.00 on 1-hour closes
Stop: 529.90
Target: 540.00 (extension 546.75, then 549.75)

Thesis
December corn (ZCZ6) bounced off a one-week low after constructive US–China talks, following seven sessions in a 525–533 range. The 2 September peak of 546.75 was the highest since July 2023, and a daily close above 549.75 would put the 560 area in view. CFTC data show managed money holding a very large net long, which raises liquidation risk if the summit underdelivers.
Exit if

A 1-hour close back below 532.90 (fades the bounce toward 525.50, then 520.00).
Disappointing farm-purchase terms after Thursday's summit.
Improving US harvest weather.

KOSPI — 6,982.92 (+1.29%)

Stance: Buy above 7,000 — bullish
Levels

Entry: Buy 7,000–7,040
Stop: 6,880
Target: 7,200 (extension 7,350, then 7,500)

Thesis
Chipmakers are leading a recovery from the 6,715–6,718 closes of 16–17 September, supported by US chip strength and record exports. Sustained trade above 7,000 into the 06:30 GMT close, or a hold of that level at the next open, would strengthen the bullish structure. One analyst note flags a wedge upper bound near 7,200.
Exit if

A failure to hold Friday's 6,894.23 close (exposes 6,800, then 6,715).
A renewed spike in US yields or an overnight chip-sector selloff.
A close below 6,880.

Dogecoin (DOGE/USD) — $0.0885 (+3.10%)

Stance: Buy breakout — bullish above 0.0900
Levels

Entry: Buy 0.0902–0.0915 after a 4-hour close above 0.0900
Stop: 0.0865
Target: 0.0950 (extension 0.1000, then 0.1050)

Thesis
Lower-timeframe technical ratings are Strong Buy, but the monthly rating is Strong Sell. The session high at 0.0898 and the 0.0900 round number are the first cap. Confirmation from Bitcoin holding above $80,000 improves the odds.
Exit if

A 4-hour close under 0.0865.
A break below the 0.0843 session low (exposes 0.0820 and 0.0785).
Higher US yields or a Trump–Xi disappointment weigh on crypto beta first.

Litecoin (LTC/USD) — ≈$58.90 (+1.2% 24h)

Stance: Buy above 60.00 — neutral-to-bullish
Levels

Entry: Buy 60.10–60.80 after a 4-hour close above 60.00
Stop: 58.60
Target: 62.50 (extension 65.00, then 68.00)

Thesis
Litecoin is consolidating after a 6.8% weekly gain and a 21.9% monthly rise, with last week's 53.40 low as the base. Round-number 60.00 is the first resistance, with 57.70 and 56.60 as supports. The bounce is in line with the broader crypto complex, so watch Bitcoin.
Exit if

A 4-hour close under 58.60 after entry.
A break below 57.70 (exposes 56.60, then 53.40).
Bitcoin loses $80,000.

What to Watch — Rest of the Day and This Week

Time	Event	Note
Today, 12:30 GMT (18:00 IST)	US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Aug)	Previous −0.08. Low-impact for USD and Treasury yields
Today, Time TBC	Fed's Goolsbee; ECB's Lagarde and Cipollone; BoC's Macklem	Hawkish Fed tone would support the dollar near 100.00 and USD/JPY, while Lagarde matters for EUR crosses
Today, 15:30 GMT (21:00 IST)	US 3-Month and 6-Month Bill Auctions	Previous 3.97% / 4.06%. Front-end yields and USD
Ongoing	Japan market holiday, reopens Thursday	Thin yen-cross liquidity. Official headlines can move USD/JPY and AUD/JPY in minutes
Tue 22 Sep, Time TBC	UN General Assembly: Gulf leaders meet Trump	Progress on a US–Iran settlement could push Brent below $100
Tue 22 Sep, 14:00 GMT	US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep)	Forecast 5.0, previous 4.0. Also Fed's Williams, Jefferson and Barkin and RBA's Bullock
Wed 23 Sep, 07:30–13:45 GMT	Global Flash PMIs (Germany, Eurozone, UK, US)	Germany forecast 53.6, US manufacturing 53.0 and services 56.4. EUR, GBP, USD and equity indices
Thu 24 Sep, 01:30 GMT	Australia Employment (Aug)	Unemployment forecast 4.5%. AUD/USD and AUD/JPY as Japan reopens
Thu 24 Sep, Time TBC	Trump–Xi Summit, Washington	Small steps expected, truce extension likely. Copper, corn, KOSPI, AUD and crypto most exposed
10 November	US–China trade truce expires	New China tariffs on hold until after the summit

Analyst View — Handover Into Europe and the US

Monday's Asian session is defined by caution. Yen intervention risk with Japan shut is colliding with a firm dollar and 10-year yields near 5% after last week's Fed hike. KOSPI's move back above 7,000 is the clearest risk-on signal, while Brent's 2% slide shows Gulf diplomacy and Aramco's pipeline workarounds are easing the supply shock, at least for now. Momentum in the dollar-and-yield trade is stalling rather than reversing.
For the yen crosses, USD/JPY is likely to stay in the 156.60–157.60 range while intervention risk and Fed-hike pricing offset each other. A hold above 157.61 exposes 158.75 and lifts AUD/JPY through 112.62, while a break of 156.60 on official headlines sends USD/JPY toward 155.72 and AUD/JPY toward 110.82. Copper and corn are both Trump–Xi trades: copper is vulnerable to any tariff revival, and funds' heavy long positioning in corn makes it vulnerable to a summit letdown. Dogecoin and Litecoin depend on Bitcoin holding $80,000, and a loss of that level would likely send DOGE toward 0.0820 and LTC toward 56.60.
CSFX's highest-conviction session idea is to respect USD/JPY 157.60 as the level that decides direction and take longs only on a confirmed 4-hour close above it. Buy KOSPI on sustained trades above 7,000 while yields stay below 5%, and size every yen-cross, commodity and crypto position for holiday-thin liquidity, Gulf headlines and Thursday's summit. A yield spike above 5% is the main risk to the risk-on tone carrying into Europe.

Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/asia-live-usd-jpy-capped

CapitalStreet · Sep 21, 2026

EUR/USD Sags Near Seven-Week Low, Crude Slides Over 2% and FTSE 100 Futures Firm as Europe Digests Post-Fed Dollar Strength

European markets head into Monday's session with the dollar holding seven-week highs after last week's Fed rate hike. EUR/USD is pinned below 1.1490 and trades under both its 100-day and 21-day moving averages. WTI crude is down more than 2% near $94 as oil eases in Asian trade despite last week's Hormuz tanker scare, and silver pulls back with gold as yields hold near 5%. FTSE 100 futures point to a firmer open after Friday's 1.45% drop on Aramco supply-cut headlines. Bitcoin's push above $81,000 is lifting ETH/USD while XRP/USD lags. ECB President Lagarde's appearances and Tuesday's FOMC speaker slate are the main scheduled catalysts.

Market at a Glance

Instrument	Price	Change	Note
EUR/USD	1.1475	-0.10%	Day range 1.1471–1.1488, prev close 1.1486. Euro pinned near a seven-week low after last week's Fed hike lifted the Dollar Index to 100.02–100.07.
GBP/CHF	1.1009	-0.03%	Derived cross from GBP/USD 1.3377 (-0.13%), EUR/CHF 0.9443 (-0.22%) and EUR/GBP 0.8576 (-0.19%). A firmer pound offsets a softer franc.
Silver	$66.41/oz	-1.10%	Futures $66.39 (-1.14%). Pulling back with gold (down about 0.8% near $4,389) as the dollar and 10-year yields near 4.97% stay firm.
Crude Oil (WTI)	$94.05/bbl	-2.11%	Brent near $101.70 (-2.0%). Oil eases in Asian trade as Aramco redirects cargoes and Gulf diplomacy calms supply fears.
FTSE 100	10,659.13	-1.45%	Friday close. December futures trade at 10,736.00 (+0.24%), pointing to a firmer cash open at 08:00 BST.
ETH/USD	$2,623.37	+0.41%	Day range $2,604–$2,668, up close to 5.9% over seven days. Firms as Bitcoin's short squeeze lifts the majors.
XRP/USD	$1.4014	-0.76%	Lagging Bitcoin (-0.13% near $81,160) and Ether as capital rotates into other altcoins.

What Is Driving the Session

EUR/USD is pinned near a seven-week low as post-Fed dollar strength holds

Last Wednesday's Fed hike to a 3.75%–4.00% range lifted the Dollar Index to a seven-week high of 100.37, and it still trades near 100.02. EUR/USD opened at 1.1486 and has drifted to 1.1475 inside a tight 1.1471–1.1488 range. The pair has lost the 1.1578 support and trades below its 100-day (1.1551) and 21-day (1.1607) moving averages, with daily and weekly technical readings both Strong Sell. ECB President Lagarde speaks today and again Tuesday, and any hawkish repricing of ECB expectations could trigger a short-covering bounce. GBP/CHF is essentially flat: sterling is holding up reasonably against the dollar after last week's Bank of England hold, while the franc lags on low yield, with UBS flagging an EUR/CHF retest of 0.96.

Oil eases despite Hormuz risk and silver pulls back with gold

WTI and Brent are both down more than 2% as oil eased in Asian trade even after last week's tanker strike near the Strait of Hormuz. Aramco is reportedly redirecting cargoes and Gulf diplomacy is helping calm supply fears, unwinding part of the risk premium built up last week. The move extends Friday's roughly 2% drop. Any escalation in Gulf shipping incidents remains the key upside risk for crude and, by extension, for inflation expectations and rate-path pricing. Silver is down about 1.1% in step with gold, capped by a firm dollar and 10-year yields near 4.97%, though it remains inside its multi-month uptrend and the pullback so far is shallow relative to the advance from the $60 area.

FTSE 100 futures point higher after Friday's Hormuz-driven drop

The cash index closed Friday at 10,659.13, down 1.45%, after banks, energy and Airtel Africa weighed on the session, and Aramco's European supply cut and the earlier tanker incident hit sentiment. December futures at 10,736.00 (+0.24%) suggest a firmer open once London trading begins at 08:00 BST. UBS has turned more constructive on the recent UK equity pullback, calling it a potential buying opportunity, and falling crude is a tailwind, even though the daily technical reading remains Strong Sell.

Crypto: Bitcoin's squeeze lifts Ether while XRP lags

Bitcoin is trading near $81,160 after an overnight short squeeze offset rate and regulatory pressure, lifting crypto-linked equities such as Coinbase and MicroStrategy. ETH/USD is constructive across most timeframes, with 5-hour, daily and weekly readings all Strong Buy. XRP's underperformance alongside a 10%+ overnight rally in EOS points to rotation rather than a broad risk-off move, so a broad-based break higher in Bitcoin would be needed to pull laggards like XRP along.

Trade Setups

All setups are conditional and all levels are technical reference points for educational discussion only. They do not constitute personal investment advice. Lagarde headlines, Gulf shipping news and thin pre-London liquidity can reverse any of these positions sharply.

EUR/USD — 1.1475 (-0.10%)

Stance: Sell rallies — bearish below 1.1551
Levels

Entry: Sell 1.1500–1.1520
Stop: 1.1560
Target: 1.1400 (extension 1.1325, then 1.1250)

Thesis
The pair trades beneath both its 100-day (1.1551) and 21-day (1.1607) moving averages after losing the 1.1578 support, a bearish structural setup. The 52-week range sits between 1.1325 and 1.2079. A break of 1.1471 opens the 1.1400 area, then the 52-week low at 1.1325.
Exit if

A sustained close back above 1.1551 (neutralises the bearish structure and exposes 1.1607).
A hawkish ECB tone from Lagarde triggers short covering.
A 1-hour close above 1.1560.

GBP/CHF — 1.1009 (-0.03%)

Stance: Buy near range base — neutral, range 1.0960–1.1080
Levels

Entry: Buy 1.0970–1.0990
Stop: 1.0940
Target: 1.1050 (extension 1.1080, then 1.1130)

Thesis
The implied cross of roughly 1.1009–1.1011 is essentially unchanged on the day, with sterling's strength offsetting a soft franc. A close above 1.1050 would open 1.1080 and 1.1130. Watch UK data, any BoE commentary and Swiss National Bank headlines for a directional trigger.
Exit if

A break below 1.0960 (exposes 1.0900), particularly on broad risk-off flows favouring the franc.
A 1-hour close under 1.0940.
EUR/CHF grinds toward 0.96 and drags the cross lower.

Silver — $66.41/oz (-1.10%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish above $65.90
Levels

Entry: Buy $66.60–$67.00 on a recovery above $67.00
Stop: $65.80
Target: $68.00 (extension $69.00, then $70.00)

Thesis
Silver remains inside its recent multi-month uptrend and the firm dollar is the main near-term headwind, while safe-haven and industrial demand narratives remain intact. A recovery above $67.00 would keep the broader uptrend intact and expose $68.00. A softer dollar reaction to any dovish Lagarde or Fed commentary would support the setup.
Exit if

A break below $65.90 (opens $64.50 and $63.00), especially if yields extend their post-Fed rise.
A 1-hour close under $65.80.
Dollar strength persists.

Crude Oil (WTI) — $94.05/bbl (-2.11%)

Stance: Sell rallies — bearish below $96.50
Levels

Entry: Sell $95.00–$95.80
Stop: $96.80
Target: $93.50 (extension $91.80, then $90.00)

Thesis
The move extends Friday's roughly 2% drop as Aramco redirects cargoes and Gulf diplomacy eases supply fears, with the broader trend turned lower after the recent highs. A break below $93.50 opens $91.80 and the $90.00 psychological level, especially if de-escalation headlines continue through the week.
Exit if

A sustained close back above $96.50 (exposes $98.20, then $100.00).
A resurgence of Hormuz-related headlines.
A 1-hour close above $96.80.

FTSE 100 — 10,659.13 (-1.45% Friday close)

Stance: Buy holds — neutral-to-bullish above 10,650
Levels

Entry: Buy 10,700–10,740 on a cash open and hold above 10,700
Stop: 10,600
Target: 10,815 (extension 10,900, then 10,989)

Thesis
Friday's range was 10,650.16–10,815.94, against a 52-week range of 9,177.09–10,989.45. A hold above 10,700 would support a retest of Friday's high, then the 52-week high at 10,989.45. Falling crude and a steadier pound are near-term supports, and UBS sees the pullback as a potential buying opportunity.
Exit if

A break below Friday's 10,650.16 low (exposes 10,500, then 10,300).
Energy and bank names fail to stabilise.
A 1-hour close under 10,600 after the cash open.

ETH/USD — $2,623.37 (+0.41%)

Stance: Buy above $2,604 — bullish
Levels

Entry: Buy $2,630–$2,660
Stop: $2,590
Target: $2,750 (extension $2,850, then $3,000)

Thesis
Ether is up 0.41% inside a $2,604–$2,668 range as Bitcoin's jump above $81,000 lifts the majors. A sustained close above $2,668 would extend the short-term uptrend toward $2,750. The monthly reading is neutral, and the pair sits well inside its $1,507–$4,753 52-week range.
Exit if

A break below $2,604 (exposes $2,500 and $2,400).
Bitcoin's squeeze fades back below $81,000.
A 1-hour close under $2,590.

XRP/USD — $1.4014 (-0.76%)

Stance: Buy near range base — neutral, range $1.32–$1.45
Levels

Entry: Buy $1.38–$1.40
Stop: $1.30
Target: $1.45 (extension $1.50, then $1.55)

Thesis
The pullback looks corrective within a broader range, with no confirmed break of near-term structure. Crypto commentary is flagging altcoin-specific stories such as Chainlink and EOS rather than a uniform sector move. A recovery above $1.45 would signal renewed participation and expose $1.50.
Exit if

A break below $1.32 (opens $1.25), particularly if rotation into other altcoins continues at XRP's expense.
Bitcoin loses $81,000.
A 1-hour close under $1.30.

What to Watch — Today and Tuesday

Time	Event	Impact	Note
Today	ECB President Lagarde speaks (first of two appearances)	High	Any hawkish repricing of ECB expectations would support the euro against a firm dollar.
Today	Bundesbank Monthly Report	Medium	—
Today	US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Aug)	Medium	—
Today	French 3-, 6- and 12-month BTF auctions	Medium	—
Today	US 3- and 6-month bill auctions	Medium	Front-end yields and the dollar are most exposed.
Tue 22 Sep	Eurozone flash Consumer Confidence (Sep)	High	EUR crosses are most exposed.
Tue 22 Sep	ECB President Lagarde speaks (second appearance)	High	—
Tue 22 Sep	US Richmond Fed Manufacturing and Services Indices (Sep)	Medium	—
Tue 22 Sep	FOMC speakers Williams, Jefferson and Barkin	High	Post-Fed dollar strength and yield direction are the key risks.
Tue 22 Sep	US 2-Year Note Auction, plus Bundesbank speakers Balz, Nagel and Buch	Medium	—
Ongoing	Gulf shipping headlines and Aramco cargo rerouting	—	Crude oil and the FTSE 100 are most exposed.

Analyst View — Rest of the European Session and Into the US Afternoon

The European session opens with the dollar still in the driving seat after last week's Fed hike, crude extending a two-day slide and crypto majors firmer on Bitcoin's overnight short squeeze. EUR/USD is the cleanest expression of the dollar trade: it trades under both moving averages, with 1.1551 the critical level above and 1.1471 the near-term pivot below. If the Dollar Index holds above 100.00 and Lagarde's remarks lean cautious, the pair should stay capped below 1.1551 with 1.1400 in view. A hawkish ECB tone or slipping US yields would more likely bring a relief bounce toward 1.1551–1.1607 before sellers reassert.
Crude and the FTSE 100 carry the main volatility risk. If crude stabilises above $96.50, the sell-off looks like a pullback within a firmer range and silver can hold above $65.90. If WTI breaks below $93.50 on further Gulf de-escalation, silver and gold are likely to stay pressured by the disinflation narrative and firm dollar. For the FTSE 100, a hold above 10,700 with crude staying soft would allow a retest of 10,815.94 and then 10,900, while a slip back below 10,650 would expose 10,500. GBP/CHF should stay confined to 1.0960–1.1080 unless risk-off flows lift the franc toward 1.0900.

CSFX's highest-conviction session idea: fade EUR/USD rallies toward 1.1500–1.1520 while the dollar holds above 100.00 and the pair stays under 1.1551, look for FTSE 100 holds above 10,700 while crude stays soft, and size every crude and crypto position for Gulf shipping headlines that can gap prices with little warning. In crypto, ETH/USD can extend toward $2,750–$2,850 if Bitcoin holds above $81,000, and XRP is the more vulnerable laggard toward $1.30–$1.32 if the squeeze fades.
Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/eur-usd-sags-near-seven-week-low-21-09-2026

CapitalStreet · Sep 21, 2026

Nasdaq Surges 2% on Chip Rally as Oil and Yields Slide and Bitcoin Reclaims $85,000

Wall Street trades firmly higher in Monday's US session. The Nasdaq is up about 2% and the S&P 500 about 1.5% as chip stocks rebound, while the Dow adds roughly 340 points after last week's worst run since March. Crude oil is sliding on hopes of US-Iran diplomacy and a recovery in Saudi exports, easing the US 10-year yield to just under 5% and weighing on the Canadian dollar. Bitcoin's short squeeze has carried it above $85,000 and pulled Litecoin sharply higher, while gold slips on firm Fed-hike expectations. Macklem's speech today, Tuesday's Fed speakers and Thursday's Trump-Xi summit are the next catalysts.

Market at a Glance

Instrument	Price	Change	Note
USD/CAD	1.4005	+0.16%	Range 1.3983–1.4023. Loonie heavy as crude slides and US-Canada yield spreads widen. Macklem speaks today
USD/CHF	0.8212	-0.11%	Prev close 0.8221, 52-week high 0.8267. Fed at 3.75%–4.00% against an SNB at 0% keeps the pair supported
Gold	$4,392.30/oz	-0.74%	December futures, spot near $4,354. Opened at $4,413 then faded on firm Fed-hike expectations
Crude Oil (WTI)	$93.49/bbl	-2.70%	November contract, Brent just above $101. 11-day low on US-Iran diplomacy hopes and Saudi supply recovery
Dow Jones	≈ 52,020	+0.66%	Up about 341 points, prev close 51,682.64. Rebounds after its worst week since March
Nasdaq / S&P 500	≈ 27,080 / ≈ 7,765	+2.1% / +1.5%	Chips lead as AMD hits a record and $1 trillion market value. Prior closes 26,522.55 and 7,650.28
US 10-Year Yield	4.948%	-0.048	Friday's close 4.996%. 2-year near 4.73%, 30-year near 5.31%
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)	$85,235	+5.79%	Session high near $85,400, highest since January. Short squeeze from a Sunday low near $80,300
Litecoin (LTC/USD)	$63.53	+11%	Sunday close $57.19, about 19% higher on the week. Next marked resistance $71.50

What Is Driving the Session

Chips lead a broad rebound as oil and yields fall

The Nasdaq is up about 2% and the S&P 500 about 1.5% as semiconductors bounce, with AMD reaching a record and $1 trillion market value and Intel and Qualcomm sharply higher. The Dow is up roughly 341 points to near 52,020 after losing 1.7% last week, its weakest week since March and a third straight weekly decline. It is back above Friday's 51,826.78 high, with the 16 September high of 52,173.70 the next hurdle. Breadth remains a concern, as more than half of S&P 500 stocks were below their 200-day average at the weekend. Treasury Secretary Bessent's weekend talks with China's He Lifeng, including a proposed AI-safety notification channel, set the tone for Thursday's Trump-Xi summit on the tariff truce and AI.

Oil slides on diplomacy hopes and a Saudi supply recovery

WTI (November) is near $93.49, down 2.70%, and Brent holds just above $101. Prices are at an 11-day low, the lowest since 10 September, as traders bet on US-Iran diplomacy around this week's UN General Assembly. Saudi exports reportedly rose above 4 million barrels per day in September, up from 2.4 million in August. Houthi attacks, disrupted Hormuz traffic and Russia's planned extension of its diesel export ban keep a risk premium in place. Falling oil is easing Treasury yields and helping equities, but it is hurting the Canadian dollar.

The Fed keeps the dollar bid while yields ease from the 5% line

The Fed lifted its target range to 3.75%–4.00% last week, its first hike in three years, and 16 of 18 officials project at least one more this year. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee argued today that persistent supply shocks and AI-driven demand may force rates higher, and traders still put October hike odds near 53%. The 10-year yield is near 4.95%, against 4.996% on Friday and a highest close since 2007 last Tuesday. Firm Fed-hike expectations and a steady dollar are capping gold, which opened at $4,413 and faded back into last week's range. USD/CAD, at its strongest since 7 August, is pressured further by wider yield spreads and lower oil, while USD/CHF stays supported by the gap between the Fed and a 0% SNB.

Bitcoin's short squeeze pulls Litecoin sharply higher

Bitcoin's weekly close above its 50-week average, for the first time in about 45 weeks, triggered a wave of short liquidations, with roughly $262 million wiped out within an hour near $84,000. BTC is trading near $85,235, up about 5.8% over 24 hours, after touching roughly $85,400, its highest since late January. Strategy and Strive added 2,305 BTC, and falling oil and yields helped risk appetite even after the Senate blocked the CLARITY Act last week. Litecoin is about 11% above Sunday's close and roughly 19% higher on the week, and the move depends on Bitcoin holding the $84,000 area. US spot-ETF holders are near break-even around $86,000, and open interest rose about 7.6% to $156 billion, pointing to fresh leverage as well as covering.

Trade Setups

All setups are conditional and all levels are technical reference points for educational discussion only. They do not constitute personal investment advice. Fed speakers, oil headlines and Thursday's Trump-Xi summit can reverse any of these positions sharply.

USD/CAD — 1.4005 (+0.16%)

Stance: Buy above 1.3990 — bullish
Levels

Entry: Buy 1.3990–1.4010
Stop: 1.3950
Target: 1.4080 (extension 1.4150, then 1.4250)

Thesis
Falling crude and wider US-Canada yield spreads keep the loonie under pressure, and Friday's 1.4014 high was the strongest print since 7 August. Daily, weekly and monthly technical readings are all Strong Buy. A push through the 1.4023 day high would open 1.4080. Scotiabank calls spot stretched against a 1.3910 fair value, so the setup is exposed to a hawkish surprise from Macklem.
Exit if

A break back below 1.3983 and then 1.3950 (signals the post-Fed dollar push is fading, exposes 1.3910).
Macklem repeats upside-inflation warnings and firms BoC tightening bets.
A 1-hour close under 1.3950.

USD/CHF — 0.8212 (-0.11%)

Stance: Buy above 0.8180 — bullish
Levels

Entry: Buy 0.8190–0.8215
Stop: 0.8160
Target: 0.8267 (extension 0.8300, then 0.8350)

Thesis
The Fed at 3.75%–4.00% against an SNB at 0% is the driver, leaving the pair about 55 pips under its 0.8267 yearly high. EUR/CHF is steady near 0.9445, so the move is a dollar story rather than a franc-specific one. A clean break above 0.8233 and 0.8267 would open 0.8300 and 0.8350, helped by tomorrow's Fed speakers and any lift in October hike odds.
Exit if

A break of 0.8180 (exposes 0.8150).
Falling US yields or risk-off flows revive the franc's haven bid.
A 1-hour close below 0.8160.

Gold — $4,392.30/oz (-0.74%)

Stance: Sell rallies — bearish below $4,425
Levels

Entry: Sell $4,400–$4,415
Stop: $4,440
Target: $4,350 (extension $4,300, then $4,250)

Thesis
Bullion is drifting back inside last week's range after failing to hold its Monday-open highs and a Friday close near $4,425. A firm dollar and elevated Treasury yields offset safe-haven demand linked to Iran and Hormuz. Kitco flags a more crowded long base in gold than in silver, and the Fed's projections point to at least one more hike this year, which keeps the opportunity cost of holding gold high.
Exit if

A recovery above $4,413 and Friday's ~$4,425 close (exposes $4,450).
A sharper fall in Treasury yields or a softer dollar after Tuesday's Fed speakers.
A 1-hour close above $4,440.

Crude Oil (WTI) — $93.49/bbl (-2.70%)

Stance: Sell rallies — bearish below $96.10
Levels

Entry: Sell $94.00–$95.00
Stop: $96.20
Target: $92.00 (extension $90.00, then $88.00)

Thesis
WTI is on a fourth straight daily decline and at its lowest since 10 September as diplomacy hopes and recovering Saudi exports ease near-term shortage fears. A break below $92.00 would open $90.00 and $88.00 as more risk premium unwinds. Levels are for the November contract, since front-month October quotes on some venues sit higher.
Exit if

A reclaim of $94.50 followed by $96.10, Friday's close (re-exposes $98).
UN-week diplomacy stalls or a fresh shipping incident emerges.
A 1-hour close above $96.20.

Dow Jones — ≈ 52,020 (+0.66%)

Stance: Buy above 51,827 — bullish
Levels

Entry: Buy 51,850–51,950
Stop: 51,680
Target: 52,336 (extension 52,573, then 52,750)

Thesis
Chips, falling oil and easing yields are lifting the index back above Friday's 51,826.78 high, with 52,173 the first hurdle on the way to the 15 September high at 52,336. Holding above 51,827 into the close would keep the rebound intact. Strength in AI leaders and a constructive Trump-Xi summit are the supportive catalysts, but weak breadth is the caution.
Exit if

A slip back below 51,827 and Friday's 51,683 close (exposes 51,497).
The chip bounce fades and breadth stays weak.
A 1-hour close under 51,680.

US 10-Year Yield — 4.948% (-0.048)

Stance: Yield lower — bearish below 4.996%
Levels

Entry: Sell (yield) 4.97%–4.99%
Stop: 5.02%
Target: 4.93% (extension 4.87%, then 4.80%)

Thesis
Falling oil is outweighing Goolsbee's warning that persistent supply shocks could require higher rates. The 10-year closed near 5% last Tuesday, its highest close since 2007, after an intraday peak of 5.04%, and has since slipped back under 5% following the Fed's first hike in three years. Tuesday's 2-year note auction and three Fed speakers are the next tests, alongside oil.
Exit if

A move back above 4.996% (puts 5.04% in play and signals bond weakness resuming).
Fed speakers push October hike odds higher or the 2-year auction is weak.
A close above 5.02%.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) — $85,235 (+5.79%)

Stance: Buy above $84,000 — bullish
Levels

Entry: Buy $84,000–$85,000
Stop: $82,200
Target: $86,000 (extension $88,000, then $90,000)

Thesis
BTC cleared the 4 September high of $82,284 and its daily RSI is near 70. Sustained trade above $84,000–$85,000 would open $86,000 and then $88,000, where one analyst sees little resting sell interest. Treasury-company buying is a supportive backdrop. The caution is that resting liquidity is thicker below than above, by roughly 12 times on one analyst's data.
Exit if

A rejection at $86,000 and a break under $84,000 (unwinds toward $82,284 and the $81,120 weekly close).
The short squeeze fades.
A 1-hour close under $82,200.

Litecoin (LTC/USD) — $63.53 (+11%)

Stance: Bullish while Bitcoin holds $84,000
Levels

Resistance: $66, then $71.50
Support: $58.30, then $57.19 (Sunday's close)

Thesis
Litecoin is about 11% above Sunday's close of $57.19 and roughly 19% higher on the week, following Bitcoin sharply higher. As a higher-beta altcoin it would fall faster than BTC if the squeeze fades.
Exit if

Bitcoin fails to hold the $84,000 area.
The squeeze unwinds and BTC heads toward $82,284–$81,120 (LTC toward $58.30–$57.19).

What to Watch — Rest of the Day and This Week

Time	Event	Impact	Note
Today	Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks at the OMFIF forum	High	Persistent supply shocks and AI demand seen as inflation risks. October hike odds near 53%
Today	BoC Governor Macklem speaks in Halifax	High	A hawkish repeat could slow USD/CAD, a softer tone opens 1.4080
Today	US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Aug)	Medium	Consensus -0.06, previous -0.08
Today	US 3-Month and 6-Month Bill Auctions	Medium	Previous 3.97% and 4.06%
Tue 22 Sep	ADP Employment Change Weekly and Redbook YoY	Medium	Previous 16.30K and 8.50%
Tue 22 Sep	US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep)	Medium	Consensus 5.0, previous 4.0. Services Index previous -8.0
Tue 22 Sep	FOMC speakers Williams, Jefferson and Barkin	High	A push above 55%–60% October odds would extend dollar and front-end yield strength
Tue 22 Sep	US 2-Year Note Auction	Medium	Previous 4.315%. A weak auction could push the 10-year back above 5%
Tue 22 Sep	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	Medium	Previous +7.14M
All week	UN General Assembly	High	US-Iran diplomacy in focus for oil
Thu 24 Sep	Trump-Xi summit	High	Tariff truce extension and AI cooperation. Next big catalyst for AI names

Analyst View — Rest of the Session and Into Tuesday

Monday's US session is dominated by a risk-on move: chips lead the Nasdaq about 2% higher, oil and Treasury yields slide, and Bitcoin's short squeeze has taken it above $85,000. The critical levels to watch are 4.996% on the US 10-year yield, $96.10 on WTI, 51,827 on the Dow and $84,000 on Bitcoin. Falling oil is doing the heavy lifting, since it eases yields, helps equities and hurts the Canadian dollar in one move, while Goolsbee's hawkish message and 53% October hike odds keep the dollar bid and gold capped below $4,413–$4,425.
If oil stays soft, the 10-year yield should hold under 4.996% with 4.93% and 4.87% as downside markers. USD/CAD should then hold above 1.3990 with 1.4080 in view, and USD/CHF stays supported above 0.8180. If UN-week talks stall or Hormuz headlines flare, oil can retrace quickly toward $96–$98 and pull yields, USD/CAD and gold with it, and a close above 5.02% in the 10-year would re-target 5.04%. In equities, a hold above 51,827 into the close opens 52,173 and 52,336, while a slide back under 51,683 would expose 51,497 if the chip bounce fades and breadth stays weak.
CSFX's highest-conviction session idea: favour a lower US 10-year yield below 4.996% while oil stays soft, sell gold rallies into $4,400–$4,415 while yields hold near 4.95%, and buy Dow holds above 51,827 while chips lead. In crypto, Bitcoin holding $84,000 is the level that keeps BTC on track toward $86,000–$88,000 and LTC toward $66–$71.50, while a failure there would leave Litecoin exposed to a sharp unwind. Size every oil, crypto and rates position for a UN-week diplomatic stumble, a Hormuz incident or a hawkish Fed speaker.
Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/us-session-report-nasdaq-surges-21-september-2026

CapitalStreet · Sep 22, 2026

Tech Rally Lifts Hang Seng, Bitcoin's Break Above $85K Fuels DOGE and SOL, Dollar Firm on Fed Hike Bets

Asian markets are firmer Tuesday as tech shares extend Wall Street's rally and lower oil prices lift risk appetite ahead of Thursday's Trump-Xi summit. Bitcoin's clean break above $85,000 liquidated over $230–648 million in shorts market-wide, sending Dogecoin up more than 14% and driving Solana through its most important resistance level in months. The Hang Seng adds roughly 0.6% behind a tech-led bid, while a firm Dollar Index near 100.40 keeps USD/JPY supported and caps AUD/USD upside even as the RBA turns more hawkish into its 29 September meeting.

Market at a Glance

Instrument	Price	Change	Note
USD/JPY	157.50	+0.10%	Day range 157.27–157.57 — prev close 157.37 — BoJ's dovish hike and Fed hawkishness keep yen pressured
AUD/USD	0.7117	+0.02%	Day range 0.7100–0.7122 — hawkish RBA speak, hike odds near 94–95% for 29 September
Copper	$6.747/lb	+0.41%	Fourth straight gain — Yangshan premium at highest since November 2022 — testing $6.80 resistance
Wheat	722.00¢/bu	+1.04%	Day range 711.38–729.13 — rebounding on US-China trade-truce hopes ahead of the summit
Hang Seng	~24,895	+0.6%	HSTECH +1.3–1.4% — Alibaba +3.2%, Baidu +2.3%, Tencent firmer on AI-led rally
Dogecoin	$0.0957	+14.0%	Day range $0.0850–$0.0978 — short squeeze on Bitcoin's break above $85,000
Solana	$119.28	+8.29%	Resistance breakout — record single-session ETF inflows compound the squeeze

What Is Driving the Session

Crypto's short squeeze is the session's sharpest move

Spot buying cleared resistance at $82,000 and pushed Bitcoin through $85,000, forcing over $230–648 million of short liquidations and lifting BTC roughly 6.8% to trade near $86,700. The move is the direct catalyst behind Dogecoin's vertical 14% surge to $0.0957 on $1.84 billion of 24-hour volume, and behind Solana tearing through its $110–118 resistance band to $119.28 after US Solana ETFs absorbed 468,600 SOL — about $55 million — in their strongest single inflow session of the month.

The Dollar stays firm on renewed Fed hike bets

The Dollar Index holds near 100.40, up 0.2%, after Fed speakers Goolsbee and Musalem reinforced expectations of another rate hike this year, with Musalem arguing inflation is likely to stay well above the 2% target absent further restraint. This keeps USD/JPY supported and caps AUD/USD upside even as the RBA turns more hawkish, since the currency pair reaction depends on the relative pace of tightening on each side.

Yen pressured by a dovish BoJ hike, Aussie steady on RBA hawkishness

The Bank of Japan lifted its short-term rate to a 31-year high but on a split 7-2 vote, with Governor Ueda describing Japan's recovery as moderate but uneven, tempering bets on a faster tightening path and keeping USD/JPY biased higher. Yen weakness past 157 historically raises the probability of fresh Japanese government intervention — Tokyo previously spent a record 9.8 trillion yen defending the currency. AUD/USD, meanwhile, holds above 0.7100 as RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter reiterates the case for further tightening, with market pricing for a 29 September hike near 94–95%.

Commodities send a bullish signal on Chinese demand and trade-truce hopes

Copper is up for a fourth straight session as the Yangshan premium — a gauge of Chinese copper demand — climbs to $121/ton, its highest since November 2022, though an RSI near 67 flags stall risk into the $6.80 resistance zone. Wheat is rebounding from Friday's three-week low after weekend US-China trade talks led by Treasury Secretary Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng fuelled optimism that lower tariffs could bring US wheat back into China's purchase basket ahead of Thursday's summit.

Hang Seng leads Asian equities higher into the summit

The Hang Seng is up around 0.6%, with the Hang Seng TECH sub-index gaining roughly 1.3–1.4% as Alibaba (+3.2%), Baidu (+2.3%) and Tencent track a Wall Street AI rally centred on strong reception for Meta's newly launched Muse AI assistant. MSCI's Asia-Pacific ex-Japan gauge is up more than 1%, with lower oil prices adding a tailwind to broader risk sentiment into the Trump-Xi meeting.

Trade Setups

All levels are reference points for educational discussion only and do not constitute personal investment advice. Any Trump-Xi summit headline or shift in Bitcoin's $85,000 level can reverse these positions sharply.

USD/JPY — 157.50 (+0.10%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish
Levels

Entry: Buy 157.30
Stop: 156.70
Target: 158.70

Thesis
The BoJ's dovish hike to a 31-year high on a split 7-2 vote, alongside slightly softer August inflation data, tempers bets on faster BoJ tightening, while Fed hawkishness from Goolsbee and Musalem keeps the dollar side of the pair well supported.
Exit if

Fresh Japanese intervention headlines emerge.
The BoJ signals a faster tightening path.
Close below 156.70.

AUD/USD — 0.7117 (+0.02%)

Stance: Buy dips — neutral-to-bullish
Levels

Entry: Buy 0.7100
Stop: 0.7085
Target: 0.7198

Thesis
Market pricing for a 25bp RBA hike at the 29 September meeting sits near 94–95%, keeping the pair underpinned above its 50-100-200-day SMA composite near 0.7078–0.7088, though a firm dollar and Trump-Xi summit uncertainty are limiting the scope for a decisive breakout.
Exit if

Broad dollar strength extends further.
RBA commentary disappoints hawkish expectations.
Close below the 0.7078–0.7088 SMA floor.

Copper — $6.747/lb (+0.41%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish
Levels

Entry: Buy $6.70
Stop: $6.58
Target: $6.89

Thesis
Copper is extending a fourth straight session of gains as the Yangshan premium climbs to its highest since November 2022 on expectations of sustained data-centre and renewable-energy demand, though an RSI near 67 sits close to overbought into the $6.80 resistance zone.
Exit if

Momentum stalls into the $6.74–$6.80 resistance band.
Price reverses below the $6.58–$6.61 SMA/trend confluence.
Chinese demand signals soften.

Wheat — 722.00¢/bu (+1.04%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish
Levels

Entry: Buy 715.00
Stop: 705.00
Target: 750.00

Thesis
The rally follows weekend US-China trade talks ahead of Thursday's summit, with traders pricing a chance that lower tariffs bring US wheat back into China's purchase basket; Black Sea supply disruptions and tightening US stocks remain structurally supportive longer-term.
Exit if

The Trump-Xi summit disappoints on agricultural purchase signals.
A wetter Corn Belt outlook eases supply concerns.
Close below 705.00.

Hang Seng — ~24,895 (+0.6%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish
Levels

Entry: Buy 24,750
Stop: 24,600
Target: 25,242

Thesis
Alibaba, Baidu and Tencent are leading gains as regional appetite for AI names revives alongside Wall Street's rally, with lower oil prices adding a tailwind to broader risk sentiment heading into the Trump-Xi meeting.
Exit if

Summit headlines disappoint.
The AI-led Wall Street rally reverses.
Close below the 24,600 pivot.

Dogecoin (DOGE/USD) — $0.0957 (+14.0%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish
Levels

Entry: Buy $0.092
Stop: $0.084
Target: $0.10

Thesis
The move coincided with a market-wide crypto advance after Bitcoin cleared $85,000, liquidating over $230–648 million in shorts; reclaiming $0.090 opens the door to test resistance near $0.10, provided volume holds above the monthly average.
Exit if

Bitcoin's momentum fades and forced buying dries up.
Price slips back under the $0.084–$0.088 defended band.
24-hour volume falls sharply below the monthly average.

Solana (SOL/USD) — $119.28 (+8.29%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish
Levels

Entry: Buy $112.00
Stop: $107.00
Target: $130.00

Thesis
US Solana ETFs absorbed 468,600 SOL — about $55 million — in their strongest single session of the month, compounding a brutal short squeeze, while the network processed more than 5 billion non-vote transactions in August, a new monthly record.
Exit if

A failure at $118.60 is followed by a slip back under $96.00.
Squeeze-driven forced buying dries up.
Broad crypto sentiment reverses alongside Bitcoin.

What to Watch — Rest of the Day and Into Wednesday

Time	Event	Note
Tue (US)	ADP Employment Change (Weekly)	Medium-impact read on US labour momentum ahead of CPI-sensitive Fed pricing
Tue (US)	Richmond Fed Manufacturing, Shipments & Services	Regional activity gauge feeding into Fed hike-bet repricing
Tue (US)	FOMC Member Williams Speaks	High impact — further steer on the pace of Fed tightening
Tue (US)	Fed Governor Jefferson Speaks	High impact — same rate-path implications for USD/JPY and AUD/USD
Tue (AU)	RBA Assistant Governor and Governor Bullock Commentary	High impact — direct read on the 94–95%-priced 29 September hike
Tue (Global)	UN General Assembly Sessions, Iran Diplomacy in Focus	High impact — bears on WTI's four-session slide and broader risk tone
Wed (EU)	Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Flash)	Medium impact — broader risk-sentiment read into the European handover
Wed (US)	Ongoing Fed Speaker Commentary	High impact — continued rate-path signalling
Thu (Global)	Trump-Xi Summit	High impact — decisive for Hang Seng, wheat and broader risk appetite

Analyst View — Rest of Session and Into the Summit

Tuesday's Asian session is defined by a broad risk-on tone: a tech-led equity rally, a firm-but-not-runaway dollar, and a crypto market riding Bitcoin's break above $85,000. The critical level to watch is Bitcoin holding $85,000, since Dogecoin's 14% surge and Solana's resistance breakout are both direct extensions of that short squeeze rather than asset-specific strength. On the FX side, the session's central tension is Fed hawkishness — weighing on the yen, capping AUD/USD — against a hawkish RBA and a dovish-hike BoJ, with intervention risk building in USD/JPY above 157–158.
CSFX's highest-conviction session idea: favour dips in the crypto majors while Bitcoin holds $85,000, buy AUD/USD pullbacks into 0.7100 while RBA hike pricing stays near 94–95%, and size copper and wheat positions for fast-moving Trump-Xi summit headlines that could move Chinese demand and trade-truce narratives sharply with little warning. Thursday's Trump-Xi summit is the single decisive variable for the rest of the week's risk tone across equities, wheat and the broader dollar.

Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/asian-session-report-bitcoin-dogecoin-solana

CapitalStreet · Sep 24, 2026

Yen Firms as Tokyo Reopens, Aussie Sags on Jobs Data and Crypto Slides as Xi Lands for the Trump Summit

Asian markets digest Wednesday's surge in Treasury yields on Thursday, with the 10-year above 5% after a hot US services PMI. Japan reopens from a three-day holiday: the Nikkei 225 is up about 1.3% at midday near 65,860, JGB futures fall nearly 70 ticks, and USD/JPY eases to around 157.80 from above 158.20. AUD/USD drifts toward 0.7000 near 0.7026 after unemployment rises to 4.6%. President Xi has landed in the US for Thursday's summit with President Trump, with the Busan trade truce extended to January 10, keeping copper near $6.77 and corn near 529 cents in focus. In crypto, Dogecoin slides about 8% to $0.0921 and Litecoin holds near $60.55 as long liquidations follow the yield shock.

Market at a Glance

Instrument	Price	Change	Note
USD/JPY	157.80	-0.28%	Prev close ~158.25 — eased from above 158.20 as Tokyo reopens; intervention risk builds toward 160
AUD/USD	0.7026	-0.18%	Testing 0.7000 support — unemployment hits 4.6%; RBA hike priced for 29 September
Copper	$6.7705/lb	-0.32%	Day range $6.757–$6.793 — just under the $6.9285 52-week high; mine halt vs firmer Dollar
Corn	529.00¢/bu	-1.44%	Wednesday close — near highest since mid-2023, still up about 7.6% over the month
Nikkei 225	~65,860	+1.3%	Prev close 65,018.95 — chip and component-led reopening; Topix only +0.1%
Dogecoin	$0.0921	-7.91%	Day range $0.0915–$0.1043 — yield shock flushes leveraged longs
Litecoin	$60.55	-2.20%	Day range $59.11–$64.57 — still about 19% above its level a week ago on ETF news

What Is Driving the Session

Treasury yields above 5% set the tone across Asia

S&P Global's September US services PMI jumped to 58.7 from 56.5 against expectations near 56, pushing the 10-year yield above 5% and the two-year to a cycle high near 4.79%. The Dollar Index has firmed near 100.86, with Fed funds at 3.75%–4.00% and October hike odds reported above 53%. Wall Street closed lower Wednesday, with the S&P 500 down 0.75% and the Nasdaq down 1.13%, and the same yield pressure is now feeding into currencies, metals and crypto across the region.

The Yen firms and the Nikkei rallies as Tokyo reopens, while the Aussie sags

Japan returned from a three-day holiday to catch up with Wednesday's global yield jump. 10-year JGB futures fell nearly 70 ticks, and USD/JPY slipped to around 157.80 from above 158.20 as the Yen caught a modest bid. The flash composite PMI showed an 18th month of expansion, but at the slowest pace since May. The Bank of Japan raised rates to 1.25% on 18 September with two dissenters, and the Ministry of Finance is set to discuss trimming liquidity-enhancement bond issuance next week. The Nikkei 225 gained about 1.3% by the midday break, led by computer-component shares after Meta unveiled a small handheld device, though the narrow, tech-led rally left the Topix up just 0.1%.
AUD/USD trades near 0.7026, edging toward 0.7000 after August jobs data. Employment rose 39.5K against 20K expected, but the jobless rate hit 4.6%, its highest since late 2021, as participation climbed to 67.1% and full-time jobs fell 6.3K. The ABS flagged a survey methodology change. Markets still price a high probability of an RBA hike to 4.60% on 29 September, but a firmer Dollar is keeping rebounds shallow.

Copper and corn wait on the Trump–Xi summit

Chinese President Xi arrived for Thursday's summit with Trump, who greeted him at the airport, and Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Busan truce now runs to January 10. Copper sits just below record highs near $6.77 a pound after Reuters reported the world's largest copper mine halted operations following a worker death. A firmer Dollar and profit-taking are capping gains ahead of Chinese holidays on 25 September and 1–7 October, and the White House has yet to decide on copper import tariffs. Corn eased 1.44% to 529 cents on Wednesday after a 7.6% monthly gain driven by a projected global deficit near 30 million tons, and traders are watching the summit for signs of larger Chinese agricultural purchases.

Crypto is the session's weakest corner as yields flush leveraged longs

The hot PMI lifted the 10-year yield above 5%, and $135.8 million of crypto positions were liquidated within an hour, with longs making up $125.9 million. Bitcoin fell below $84,000 and memecoins led the declines, with Dogecoin down about 8% and reversing much of Monday's 14% surge. Litecoin is holding up better, still about 19% above its level a week ago after breaking a 90-day resistance area. Grayscale's spot-ETF conversion filing and renewed inflows into a Litecoin ETF on Schwab continue to underpin sentiment.

Trade Setups

All levels are reference points for educational discussion only and do not constitute personal investment advice. Each setup is conditional, and Thursday's Trump–Xi summit and US data can reverse any of these positions sharply.

USD/JPY — 157.80 (-0.28%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish above 157.00 (conditional)
Levels

Entry: Buy 157.50–157.80
Stop: 156.90
Target: 158.30 / 159.00 / 160.00

Thesis
Trend indicators remain bullish, and the Fed–BOJ policy gap (BOJ at 1.25% against a hawkish-leaning Fed) plus a US 10-year yield above 5% support dips. Japan Ministry of Finance intervention risk caps rallies toward the 160 area, where chatter typically intensifies.
Exit if

A sharper JGB reversal or softer US yields pushes the pair toward 157.00–156.00.
Verbal warnings from Tokyo emerge.
Close below 156.90.

AUD/USD — 0.7026 (-0.18%)

Stance: Sell rallies — bearish below 0.7060 (conditional)
Levels

Entry: Sell 0.7035–0.7055
Stop: 0.7080
Target: 0.7000 / 0.6965 / 0.6930

Thesis
Unemployment at 4.6% and a fall in full-time jobs weigh on the Aussie, and the pair remains below the 0.7115 area seen on 22 September. A firmer Dollar Index near 100.86 keeps rebounds shallow, and a sustained break below 0.7000 opens 0.6965 and 0.6930.
Exit if

A hawkish RBA repricing ahead of 29 September lifts the pair toward 0.7080–0.7115.
US yields soften.
Close above 0.7080.

Copper — $6.7705/lb (-0.32%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish above $6.75 (conditional)
Levels

Entry: Buy $6.75–$6.78
Stop: $6.70
Target: $6.85 / $6.9285 / $7.00

Thesis
Daily and weekly technical readings remain in Strong Buy territory, though short-term hourly readings lean to Sell. LME three-month copper is near $14,700 a ton after touching $14,833, with a record of $14,875 set on 10 September.
Exit if

The Dollar firms further.
A White House copper-tariff decision widens the COMEX–LME spread, extending the pullback toward $6.60.
Close below $6.70.

Corn — 529.00¢ (-1.44%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish above 520 (conditional)
Levels

Entry: Buy 522–529
Stop: 515
Target: 540 / 550 / 560

Thesis
The USDA projects global corn output to fall short of consumption by nearly 30 million metric tons in 2026/27, the largest deficit in more than 30 years, alongside disruptions to Black Sea grain shipments. Dip-buying has held above the 520 area, and a recovery above 540 would put the recent 550 high back in play.
Exit if

The summit delivers no agricultural purchase commitments.
A stronger Dollar or profit-taking pulls prices toward 515–505.
Close below 515.

Nikkei 225 — ~65,860 (+1.3%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish above 65,000 (conditional)
Levels

Entry: Buy 65,400–65,800
Stop: 64,900
Target: 66,400 / 66,950 / 67,500

Thesis
The index has reclaimed the 65,000 level after last Friday's BOJ-driven 1.38% rally, with chip names such as Advantest, Tokyo Electron and Kioxia dominating index moves. A weaker Yen remains a tailwind for exporters, and a close above 66,400 would open the recent 66,950 high.
Exit if

A sharp JGB-driven yield spike hits equities.
AI and chip shares reverse, or the Yen rebounds, sending the index toward 65,000–64,400.
Close below 64,900.

Dogecoin (DOGE/USD) — $0.0921 (-7.91%)

Stance: Sell rallies — bearish below 0.1000 (conditional)
Levels

Entry: Sell $0.0935–$0.0965
Stop: $0.1005
Target: $0.0900 / $0.0877 / $0.0820

Thesis
The rejection at the 0.1043 intraday high leaves 0.1000 as resistance, after hot US PMI data sent Treasury yields to cycle highs. Support sits at 0.0900 and the 0.0877 area from 18–19 September, with 0.0820 the base of last week's breakout.
Exit if

Easing yields alongside a reclaim of 0.1000 reopen 0.1043.
Renewed Bitcoin ETF inflows return.
Close above $0.1005.

Litecoin (LTC/USD) — $60.55 (-2.20%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish above 58.00 (conditional)
Levels

Entry: Buy $59.00–$60.50
Stop: $57.80
Target: $63.80 / $65.00 / $67.00

Thesis
LTC has broken through the 90-day resistance area and is consolidating above the 58–60 zone. The Grayscale spot-ETF filing and resumed spot inflows into the LTCC ETF on Schwab have supported relative strength versus memecoins.
Exit if

A break below 58.00 signals the breakout is failing.
Treasury yields keep climbing, with 55.00 the next support.
Close below $57.80.

What to Watch — Rest of the Day and This Week

Time	Event	Note
Thursday (US hours)	Trump–Xi summit	Xi landed and Trump greeted him; truce extended to 10 January — watch Chinese grain purchases, copper tariffs and chip export rules once talks get fully under way
Thursday (US hours)	Fed speakers Williams and Barkin, US jobless claims, new home sales, 7-year note auction	Jobless claims consensus 201K — inputs for yields and the Dollar after the PMI shock
Ongoing	US 10-year yield above 5%	Whether it holds decides the direction for DOGE, LTC, AUD/USD and USD/JPY; October Fed hike odds reported above 53%
Ongoing	USD/JPY 158–160 and JGB market	Verbal warnings from Tokyo and the reaction to the MOF bond-issuance plan next week
25 September	China holidays begin (also 1–7 October)	Copper buying ahead of the breaks
Ongoing	White House copper-tariff decision	Headline-driven two-way risk that knocked over 5% off US prices earlier in September
28–29 September	Reserve Bank of Australia meeting	Markets price a high probability of a hike from 4.35% to 4.60% on 29 September
Ongoing	Crypto ETF flows	Bitcoin ETF flows and Grayscale's amended S-3 for a spot Litecoin ETF

Analyst View — Rest of Session and Into the Weekend

Thursday's Asian session is defined by a bond-market hangover, Japan's return from holiday and an all-eyes-on-Washington summit. The US 10-year yield above 5% and a Fed–BOJ policy gap keep the USD/JPY trend bullish even as the Yen catches a modest bid, but intervention risk builds toward 160. AUD/USD near 0.7026 is testing 0.7000 after a mixed jobs report, with an RBA hike still priced for 29 September.
The Nikkei 225 is near 65,860 on chip strength, copper at $6.7705 is consolidating just under its $6.9285 high, and corn at 529 cents is eyeing summit headlines. Copper and corn are two-way, headline-sensitive trades that can reverse within minutes on tariff or purchase announcements. Dogecoin at $0.0921 and Litecoin at $60.55 are the most exposed to any further rise in US yields, though Litecoin's ETF-driven relative strength sets it apart from the memecoin sell-off.
CSFX's key session ideas: buy USD/JPY dips toward 157.50–157.80 while US yields stay above 5%, sell AUD/USD rebounds toward 0.7035–0.7055 while the Dollar is firm, and size every crypto and commodity position for summit, tariff and yield headlines that can move markets sharply with little warning. The Trump–Xi talks, Fed speakers, US jobless claims and the 7-year note auction are the main catalysts ahead, with DOGE, AUD/USD and USD/JPY carrying the greatest volatility risk.

Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/asian-session-yen-firms-as-tokyo-reopens-aussie-sags-24-sep

CapitalStreet · Sep 24, 2026

Euro and Sterling Sag, Silver Slides and Oil Rebounds as Europe Trades Under a Hawkish Fed Cloud With Yields at 5.14%

European markets trade defensively Thursday as Fed Williams' comment that another rate hike by year-end is reasonable pushes the US 10-year yield to about 5.14% and the Dollar Index to about 100.95. EUR/USD sits near 1.1374 despite a stronger German Ifo (89.9), GBP/USD hugs 12-week lows near 1.3228, and Silver slips 1.45% to about $64.02. WTI rebounds 1.86% to near $93.87 with Brent above $105 as US-Iran talks stall over Hormuz, while the DAX slips toward 25,263 and Ether (~$2,670) and Solana (~$113.5) fall about 3% with Bitcoin under $84,000. The Trump-Xi summit in Washington, with the trade truce extended to 10 January, and US jobless claims are the next catalysts.

Market at a Glance

Instrument	Price	Change	Note
EUR/USD	1.1374	-0.09%	Prev close ~1.1384 — near two-month lows — Fed hike bets outweigh a stronger Ifo
GBP/USD	1.3228	-0.10%	Day range 1.3223–1.3250 (early) — near 12-week lows — BoE hawks fail to lift Sterling
Silver	$64.02	-1.45%	Range low ~$63.60 — under 20-day EMA at 65.15 — US 10-year yield at a 19-year high
WTI Crude Oil	$93.87	+1.86%	Brent $105.45 (+2.30%) — second daily gain as US-Iran talks stall over Hormuz
DAX 40	~25,263	-0.58%	Futures 25,462 — Wednesday close 25,410.63 — defence stocks lead losses
Ethereum	~$2,670	-3.20%	7D still ~+12–15% — about $518M of crypto liquidations in 24 hours, mostly longs
Solana	~$113.5	-3.20%	24H range ~113.3–119.7 — still ~+20% on the week — profit-taking from the $119.66 high

Snapshot ~09:00–09:10 GMT (10:00 BST / 11:00 CEST). Levels are indicative and rounded; DAX 40 is derived from the -0.58% move in DAX futures applied to Wednesday's cash close, and ETH and SOL are approximate spot averages from crypto trackers.

What Is Driving the Session

Hawkish Fed pushes yields to 19-year highs and pins the Euro and Sterling near multi-week lows

Fed Williams said another hike by year-end is reasonable, following hot US S&P Global services and composite PMIs of 58.7 and 58.4 in September. The US 10-year yield climbed to about 5.14%, its highest in roughly 19 years, and the Dollar Index rose 0.14% to about 100.95, near a two-month high. CME FedWatch prices roughly a 71% chance of a 25bp hike on 28 October, with the Fed funds range at 3.75%–4.00% after the 16 September move. EUR/USD has fallen nearly 2% in under two weeks and sits near two-month lows despite Germany's Ifo rising to 89.9 (89.0 expected) and Eurozone private-sector activity growing at its fastest pace in almost 3.5 years. The ECB has raised its deposit rate by 25bp, its second hike since the Iran war began, and the Bund 10-year yield is 3.547%, near a 17-year high. Sterling is no better off: BoE Deputy Governor Lombardelli said hikes are needed if energy prices persist, and the Bank Rate is 3.75% after a 6–3 hold with three MPC members voting for 4%, yet GBP/USD is near its lowest since late June. Swaps price about 100bp of tightening to 4.75%, although Brown Brothers Harriman argues that may be too aggressive given spare capacity and fiscal tightening. The SNB held at 0% today and raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 0.7%.

Oil rebounds as US-Iran talks stall, and the DAX slips with Europe

WTI is up 1.86% for a second day after five sessions of declines, and Brent is back above $105 after Iranian and US officials met on the UN sidelines with little sign of progress. Iran wants the US naval blockade lifted, sanctions ended and assets unfrozen before Hormuz reopens, while a Saudi East-West pipeline restart limits the upside and keeps WTI in a volatile 90–98 band. The STOXX 600 was down 0.59% at 636.15 by 0817 GMT, with defence and aerospace names such as Hensoldt and Saab leading declines despite the better Ifo survey. The DAX is near 25,263, extending Wednesday's 0.66% drop and losing the 25,500 support level. The FTSE 100 is near 10,690, with Vistry down 9% on a profit warning, and US 500 futures are near 7,657, down 0.64% after Wall Street closed lower Wednesday as yields surged.

Silver slides as yields bite into non-yielding assets

Silver is down 1.45% to about $64.02 as the 10-year yield reaches a 19-year high and CME FedWatch shows rising odds of hikes at both remaining meetings. Gold is also softer near $4,292 (-0.61%), below $4,300 and at a one-week low. XAG/USD holds under its 20-day EMA at 65.15 with RSI near 46, which points to modest rather than oversold downside momentum. The 19 August low at 62.19 is the key support. The Trump-Xi summit is the swing factor: Treasury Secretary Bessent said both sides agreed to extend the trade truce to 10 January, but expectations for a major announcement are low, with rare earths, technology restrictions, Taiwan, Iran and AI on the agenda.

Crypto meets long liquidations and an ETF divergence

Bitcoin trades near $83,800, down about 3.1% and below $84,000 for a third day, while Ether and Solana each lose about 3.2%. Roughly $518 million of crypto positions were liquidated in 24 hours, $455.9 million of them longs, as FedWatch odds of an October hike rose to roughly 71%. US Ether ETFs posted a $224 million outflow after the Fed hike, and BTC and ETH funds saw outflows while Solana and XRP funds kept drawing inflows. Solana is still up around 20% on the week after climbing from about $112 on Monday to test $120, but rate-hike fears and a stronger Dollar triggered profit-taking from the $119.66 high. Bitcoin's 50-day EMA sits near $76,100, and the market is watching whether BTC defends $82,500 and whether the 10-year yield holds above 5%.

Trade Setups

All levels are conditional technical reference points for educational discussion only and do not constitute personal investment advice. Trading CFDs, futures and crypto-assets involves significant risk of loss. A dovish repricing of Fed hike odds or a Trump-Xi headline can reverse any of these positions sharply.

EUR/USD — 1.1374 (-0.09%)

Stance: Sell rallies — bearish below 1.1450
Levels

Entry: Sell 1.1400–1.1430
Stop: 1.1470
Target: 1.1350 / 1.1330 / 1.1300
Key levels: Resistance 1.1400 / 1.1450 / 1.1515 · Support 1.1350 / 1.1330 / 1.1300

Thesis
The pair trades under its 20-day EMA near 1.1515 and below the 100-day MA, keeping the daily bias bearish. A hot US PMI, US 10-year yields near 5.1% and firmer oil have driven the slide, and the ECB-Fed gap and fiscal worries cap rallies even after the stronger Ifo (89.9, with expectations at 90.4). A hold below 1.1400 opens 1.1350 and the 1.1320–1.1330 June lows, with Fed speakers Williams and Barkin the near-term risk.
Exit if

A dovish repricing of Fed hike odds or a Trump-Xi trade breakthrough lifts the pair toward 1.1450–1.1515.
The bearish structure weakens as yields ease.
Close above 1.1470.

GBP/USD — 1.3228 (-0.10%)

Stance: Sell rallies — bearish below 1.3320
Levels

Entry: Sell 1.3260–1.3290
Stop: 1.3320
Target: 1.3200 / 1.3140 / 1.3050
Key levels: Resistance 1.3270 / 1.3320 / 1.3400 · Support 1.3200 / 1.3140 / 1.3009

Thesis
Cable sits near its lowest since late June while EUR/GBP holds around 0.8600, just under three-month highs, as Sterling lags both the Dollar and the Euro. The technical summary reads Strong Sell across timeframes, the 52-week range is 1.3009–1.3869, and 1.3400 has capped every rally since the Fed hiked on 16 September. A break under 1.3200, where the pair traded at end-June, targets 1.3140 and then the 1.3009 year low.
Exit if

A hawkish surprise from BoE speakers Bean, Breeden or Dhingra sends cable back toward 1.3320–1.3400.
US yields and Fed hike odds ease.
Close above 1.3320.

Silver (XAG/USD) — $64.02 (-1.45%)

Stance: Sell rallies — bearish below 65.15
Levels

Entry: Sell 64.20–64.90
Stop: 65.40
Target: 63.20 / 62.19 / 61.50
Key levels: Resistance 64.90 / 65.15 / 66.00 · Support 63.20 / 62.19 / 61.50

Thesis
Silver trades under its 20-day EMA at 65.15 with RSI near 46 after Williams' comments and a 19-year-high US 10-year yield, with gold also softer near $4,292. A daily close below 63.20 exposes 62.19, the 19 August low, and a break of that opens the 61.50 area.
Exit if

A close above the 20-day EMA at 65.15 opens 66.00.
Yields soften or a China-friendly Trump-Xi outcome eases the pressure.
Close above 65.40.

WTI Crude Oil — $93.87 (+1.86%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish above 91.40
Levels

Entry: Buy 92.80–93.90
Stop: 91.40
Target: 95.00 / 97.50 / 100.00
Key levels: Resistance 95.00 / 97.50 / 100.00 · Support 92.20 / 91.40 / 90.00

Thesis
WTI is up for a second day after five sessions of declines, with Brent at $105.45 as Iran's demands on the blockade, sanctions and frozen assets remain unmet. The Saudi East-West pipeline restart limits the upside and keeps the price in a volatile 90–98 band. A hold above 95.00 opens 97.50 and the 100.00 round number, and Brent sustaining $100 supports the move.
Exit if

Credible progress on a US-Iran deal pushes WTI back through 91.40 toward 90.00.
Stronger Saudi flows through Hormuz ease supply fears.
Close below 91.40.

DAX 40 — ~25,263 (-0.58%)

Stance: Sell rallies — bearish below 25,500
Levels

Entry: Sell 25,300–25,420
Stop: 25,520
Target: 25,120 / 25,000 / 24,900
Key levels: Resistance 25,420 / 25,500 / 25,700 · Support 25,120 / 25,000 / 24,900

Thesis
The DAX extends Wednesday's drop to 25,410.63 as oil rebounds and yields stay near highs. The daily technical reading is Strong Sell, the 52-week range is 21,863.81–26,618.74, and support at 25,500 has been lost, leaving the round 25,000 level and the 200 EMA near 24,900 next. A sustained break under 25,120 confirms momentum toward those levels.
Exit if

A firm Ifo-led rebound, a Trump-Xi breakthrough or lower oil lifts the DAX back to 25,500–25,700, where the 50 EMA sits.
Bund and Treasury yields retreat from their highs.
Close above 25,520.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) — ~$2,670 (-3.20%)

Stance: Sell rallies — bearish below 2,720
Levels

Entry: Sell 2,690–2,720
Stop: 2,790
Target: 2,600 / 2,500 / 2,410
Key levels: Resistance 2,720 / 2,753 / 2,800 · Support 2,600 / 2,500 / 2,410

Thesis
ETH gives back gains after touching $2,719 on Monday's short squeeze, with about $518 million of crypto positions liquidated in 24 hours. The broader trend is still up, with ETH about 12% higher on the week, but momentum has stalled under the $2,720–2,750 area and US Ether ETFs posted a $224 million outflow after the Fed hike. A break of 2,600 opens 2,500 and the 2,410 area seen a week ago.
Exit if

Yields ease and ETF flows return, lifting ETH back above 2,750 and toward 2,800–3,000.
Bitcoin reclaims $84,000.
Close above 2,790.

Solana (SOL/USD) — ~$113.5 (-3.20%)

Stance: Sell rallies — bearish below 116.50
Levels

Entry: Sell 114.50–116.50
Stop: 119.70
Target: 111.00 / 108.00 / 104.00
Key levels: Resistance 116.50 / 119.70 / 122.00 · Support 111.00 / 108.00 / 104.00

Thesis
SOL cools after trading as high as $119.66 in the last 24 hours, though it is still up around 20% on the week. The 4-hour structure remains constructive with support from the 21-EMA near 112.65 and the 55-EMA near 108, but $120 has capped the advance, and spot Solana and XRP funds kept drawing inflows after the Fed hike. A break under 111.00 targets the 108.00 EMA cluster, then 104.00.
Exit if

A recovery above 116.50 and then 119.70 negates the pullback and reopens 122.00.
Broad crypto sentiment recovers as yields ease.
Close above 119.70.

What to Watch — Rest of the Day and This Week

Time	Event	Note
Today (Europe)	ECB speakers incl. Lagarde	Whether the Euro can decouple from the firm Dollar; ECB has hiked 25bp and leaves further steps open
Today (UK)	BoE speakers Bean, Breeden, Dhingra	Swaps price ~100bp of hikes to 4.75%; a hawkish surprise could send GBP/USD toward 1.3320–1.3400
Later Today (US)	Fed's Williams and Barkin	Any further hint on year-end hikes decides whether yields hold above 5%
Later Today (US)	US jobless claims, building permits, new home sales, 7-year note auction	Consensus: claims 201K, new home sales 615K — yield-sensitive read-through for Dollar, Silver and crypto
Ongoing	Trump-Xi summit, Washington	Truce extended to 10 January; low expectations for a major announcement — any tariff, chip-curb or purchase headline moves risk assets, Silver and the Dollar
Ongoing	US-Iran talks and Hormuz	Brent $100 and WTI $91–95 are the pivots; watch for a diplomatic breakthrough or new attacks on shipping
23:01 GMT	UK GfK consumer confidence	Forecast -16
Friday	BoE Governor Bailey speaks	Follow-through on the BoE hike debate
Ongoing	Bitcoin $82,500 and the 5% US 10-year yield	Long-liquidation risk for ETH and SOL if both give way

Analyst View — Rest of Session and Into the Weekend

Thursday's European session is a Dollar-and-yield story, with oil and the Trump-Xi summit as the swing factors. EUR/USD near 1.1374 and GBP/USD near 1.3228 stay under pressure while US yields hold above 5%, even with a strong Ifo and hawkish BoE and ECB rhetoric. If yields keep climbing and Fed speakers stay hawkish, EUR/USD should press 1.1350–1.1330 and GBP/USD 1.3200–1.3140. If yields ease or the Trump-Xi talks lift risk appetite, EUR/USD should retest 1.1450 and GBP/USD 1.3320.
Silver at about $64.02 is capped under its 20-day EMA at 65.15, and a climbing 10-year yield would slide it toward 63.20–62.19. WTI near $93.87 is rebounding as Hormuz talks stall and should extend toward 95.00–97.50 if the stalemate persists, while progress toward a deal would send it back to 91.40–90.00. The DAX near 25,263 has lost 25,500, and if Brent holds above $105 and yields stay elevated it should test 25,120 and 25,000. Ifo optimism and summit progress would make a recovery toward 25,500–25,700 likelier. Ether (~$2,670) and Solana (~$113.5) are the most exposed to any further rise in yields after a heavy long liquidation, pressing 2,600–2,500 and 111–108 if hike odds keep rising, or reclaiming 2,750 and 116.50–119.70 if yields ease and ETF inflows resume.
CSFX's highest-conviction session idea: favour fading EUR/USD and GBP/USD rallies toward 1.1400–1.1430 and 1.3260–1.3290 while the US 10-year yield holds above 5%, sell DAX rallies toward 25,300–25,420 while Brent stays above $100, and treat WTI dips toward 92.80–93.90 as the buy-side counterpart while US-Iran talks stall. Size every position, especially in Silver, Ether and Solana, for Trump-Xi headlines, Fed speakers and US jobless claims that can move markets sharply with little warning. Yields and the Trump-Xi outcome are the two variables that decide the rest of the session.
Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/iran-stall-while-dax-and-ether-slip-24-09-2026

CapitalStreet · Sep 25, 2026

Nikkei Rallies Through the Bond-Yield Shock as the Yen Nears the Intervention Line and the Aussie Tests Support Before Next Week's RBA

Asia trades through the tail of Thursday's US bond shock Friday, with the 10-year Treasury yield still pinned near 5.11% and October Fed hike odds near 70-72%. USD/JPY holds near 158.85 after touching 158.37 overnight, keeping BOJ intervention-watch chatter alive after Tokyo spent roughly ¥15.4 trillion defending the currency since late July. AUD/USD is flat near 0.7010, a fresh low since early August after breaking below its 200-day SMA, as traders weigh Tuesday's RBA decision — a hike to 4.60% is close to fully priced — against Trump-Xi summit follow-through. The Nikkei 225 rallies 1.27% on a weaker Yen while South Korea's KOSPI stays shut for Chuseok, Copper firms toward a weekly gain as Chinese buyers return from holiday, and Litecoin surges 20% on a golden cross as Dogecoin extends its bounce on whale accumulation.

Market at a Glance

Instrument	Price	Change	Note
USD/JPY	158.85	+0.35%	Day range 157.79–159.04 — prev close 158.30 — overnight high 158.37, MOF intervention watch near 160
AUD/USD	0.7010	~Flat	Day range 0.6985–0.7045 — prev close 0.7012 — fresh low since early August, below 200-day SMA
Copper (LME 3M)	$14,632/t	+0.08%	Day range 14,526–14,720 — +0.76% on the week — record high $14,875 two weeks ago
Corn	520.75¢/bu	-1.1%	Day range 520.88–526.40 — prev close ~526.50 — harvest supply meets steady China demand
Nikkei 225	66,345	+1.27%	Day range 65,639–66,500 — prev close 65,514 — KOSPI shut for Chuseok
Dogecoin	$0.0956	+3.0%	24h range $0.0917–$0.0971 — whale accumulation reported
Litecoin	$73.00	+20%	Day range 61.78–74.77 — prev close ~$61.91 — daily golden cross, Grayscale ETF buzz

What Is Driving the Session

Yen intervention watch builds as USD/JPY nears 160

USD/JPY touched an overnight high of 158.37, its highest since early September, before Tokyo reopened following a three-day holiday, keeping BOJ intervention chatter alive. Japan's Ministry of Finance has spent roughly ¥15.4 trillion defending the Yen since late July, with the 200-day moving average sitting at 158.43 as the line traders are watching. US yields near 5.11% and October Fed hike odds near 70-72% are keeping the pair bid, with any verbal or actual BOJ intervention — and whether 160.00 gets tested — the key watch items into the weekend.

RBA hike is close to fully priced as the Aussie tests a four-month low

AUD/USD holds near 0.7010, its lowest level since early August after breaking below the 200-day SMA overnight. All big-four Australian banks now expect a 25bp hike to 4.60% on Tuesday, with markets pricing odds near 92%, after hawkish RBA commentary from Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter and a jump in oil prices lifted inflation risk since the July CPI print. RSI(14) near 32.7 signals stretched but not yet exhausted downside momentum, with any pre-meeting RBA commentary and next Wednesday's August CPI — which lands too late to shift Tuesday's vote — the drivers to watch.

Nikkei outperforms peers as a weaker Yen offsets the global bond shock

The Nikkei 225 trades near 66,345, up about 1.27% intraday, as a softer Yen and demand for large Japanese tech and semiconductor names help the index absorb Thursday's global bond-yield shock better than regional peers. South Korea's Kospi remains closed for Chuseok. Corporate balance sheets and profit margins are cushioning the index against further rate volatility for now, though a sharp Yen rebound that crushes exporter earnings expectations remains the key risk to the rally.

Copper firms on returning China demand as corn eases into harvest

LME three-month copper trades near $14,632 a tonne, on track for a weekly gain of about 0.76%, as Chinese buyers return from their holiday window into tight supply — Chile's Escondida mine remains suspended and a Centinela strike vote looms. Corn, by contrast, eases toward 520.75 cents a bushel as fresh new-crop bushels arrive and Brazil's soybean planting adds regional competition for acreage, even as steady Chinese buying cushions the wider grains complex. Any update on the Centinela strike vote and further China trade data are the drivers to watch on the supply side.

Crypto risk appetite rebuilds on Litecoin's golden cross and Dogecoin whale buying

Litecoin has surged toward $73.00, up roughly 20% from a previous close near $61.91, after the daily 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day average — a golden cross that comes alongside Grayscale's move to convert its Litecoin Trust into a spot ETF. Dogecoin presses toward $0.0956, up about 3.0%, after a widely followed tracker flagged large holders buying over 600 million DOGE within 24 hours. Bitcoin holds near $84,000, providing a steadier backdrop even as Fed hike bets remain a headwind for risk assets broadly, with whether DOGE can clear $0.10 and LTC can hold above $75 the key levels into the next 24 hours.

Trade Setups

All levels are reference points for educational discussion only and do not constitute personal investment advice. BOJ intervention risk and Tuesday's RBA decision can reverse any of these positions sharply.

USD/JPY — 158.85 (+0.35%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish above 158.43
Levels

Entry: Buy 158.50
Stop: 157.80
Target: 159.40

Thesis
Price holds above the 200-day SMA at 158.43 with US yields near 5.11% and October Fed hike odds near 70-72% keeping the pair bid. A close above 159.00 opens 159.40, with 160.00 marking the psychological line where the Ministry of Finance has previously intervened.
Exit if

Fresh verbal or actual BOJ intervention emerges.
US yields pull back sharply.
Close below 157.80.

AUD/USD — 0.7010 (~Flat)

Stance: Sell rallies — bearish below 0.7040
Levels

Entry: Sell 0.7020
Stop: 0.7060
Target: 0.6940

Thesis
The pair sits below the 100-day moving average and Bollinger middle band, with RSI(14) near 32.7 signalling stretched but not yet exhausted downside momentum ahead of Tuesday's near-fully-priced RBA hike. A close below 0.6980 exposes 0.6940 and 0.6900.
Exit if

The RBA signals a hawkish hold-the-line surprise.
US yields pull back sharply into next week.
Close above 0.7060.

Copper — $14,632/t (+0.08%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish above 14,595
Levels

Entry: Buy 14,650
Stop: 14,500
Target: 14,875

Thesis
China's return from its holiday is renewing demand into tight supply, while Chile's Escondida mine remains suspended and a Centinela strike vote looms. Holding above 14,595 keeps 14,800 and the recent record near 14,875 in view.
Exit if

The Dollar firms further on rising Fed hike odds.
The Chilean supply disruptions resolve.
Close below 14,500.

Corn — 520.75¢/bu (-1.1%)

Stance: Sell rallies — bearish below 526.50
Levels

Entry: Sell 522.00
Stop: 527.50
Target: 510.00

Thesis
Price remains capped below the recent 526.50-536.75 supply zone as fresh new-crop bushels arrive and Brazil's soybean planting adds regional competition for acreage. A break under 520.00 opens 515.00 and 510.00.
Exit if

Chinese purchases pick up and absorb the accelerating US harvest.
Export business surprises to the upside.
Close above 527.50.

Nikkei 225 — 66,345 (+1.27%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish above 65,640
Levels

Entry: Buy 66,000
Stop: 65,500
Target: 67,000

Thesis
A weaker Yen and demand for large Japanese tech and semiconductor names are helping the index absorb the global bond shock better than peers, with South Korea's Kospi still shut for Chuseok. Holding above 65,900 keeps 66,500 and 67,000 in view.
Exit if

A sharp Yen rebound crushes exporter earnings expectations.
US yields spike further.
Close below 65,500.

Dogecoin (DOGE/USD) — $0.0956 (+3.0%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish above 0.0920
Levels

Entry: Buy 0.0940
Stop: 0.0890
Target: 0.1000

Thesis
Price is pressing back toward the $0.10 psychological resistance after clearing the 50/100/200-day EMA cluster, with a widely followed tracker flagging large holders buying over 600 million DOGE in a single 24-hour window. A close above 0.0971 opens 0.1000 and the 7-day high near 0.1054.
Exit if

A broader crypto de-risking emerges on rising Fed hike odds.
Whale accumulation reverses into distribution.
Close below 0.0890.

Litecoin (LTC/USD) — $73.00 (+20%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish above 67.65
Levels

Entry: Buy 71.00
Stop: 67.00
Target: 78.13

Thesis
The daily 50-day moving average has crossed above the 200-day average, a golden cross that comes alongside Grayscale's move to convert its Litecoin Trust into a spot ETF. Immediate resistance sits at 75.00, then 78.13.
Exit if

Price fails to clear 75.00 and short covering fades.
The Grayscale ETF filing stalls or is withdrawn.
Close below 67.00.

What to Watch — Rest of the Day and This Week

Time	Event	Note
Ongoing	Yen intervention watch	USD/JPY touched 158.37 overnight; MOF has spent ~¥15.4 trillion defending the Yen since late July
Tuesday, 29 September	Reserve Bank of Australia decision	All big-four banks expect a 25bp hike to 4.60%; markets pricing ~92% odds
Ongoing	US 10-year yield near 5.11%	October Fed hike odds near 70-72% per CME FedWatch, keeping the Dollar broadly supported
Later Today (US)	Durable goods orders & Michigan sentiment final	Next scheduled US data inputs before next week's RBA-driven repricing
Ongoing	Copper supply risk	Escondida mine suspended; Centinela strike vote looms in Chile
Ongoing	Nikkei vs. Yen sensitivity	Watch whether a sharp Yen rebound crushes exporter earnings expectations
Next 24 Hours	Crypto risk appetite	Whether DOGE can clear $0.10 and LTC can hold above $75
Wednesday	Australia August CPI	Lands too late to shift Tuesday's RBA vote but sets tone for the cash-rate path into next year

Analyst View — Rest of Session and Into the Weekend

Friday's Asian session is a Yen-and-yields story, with next week's RBA decision and Chilean copper supply as swing factors. USD/JPY near 158.85 keeps BOJ intervention watch alive after touching 158.37 overnight, while AUD/USD's slide to a fresh low since early August reflects a market that has already priced Tuesday's RBA hike to 4.60% and is now trading the Dollar-yield backdrop instead. The Nikkei's outperformance against a shut KOSPI is a clean read on how a weaker Yen and resilient tech demand can offset broader bond-market stress — though that offset only holds as long as the Yen doesn't snap back violently.
Copper's firmness into tight, supply-constrained conditions is a genuine structural tailwind, while corn's harvest-driven softness looks more like seasonal supply pressure than a demand story. In crypto, Litecoin's golden cross and Grayscale's ETF filing, alongside Dogecoin's whale accumulation, point to a genuine altcoin risk-on rotation rather than isolated moves, with Bitcoin's steady footing near $84,000 providing the backdrop for that appetite to persist.
CSFX's highest-conviction session idea: favour Yen strength and fade USD/JPY rallies toward 159.00-159.40 while BOJ intervention risk builds near 160, lean into Nikkei dips while the weaker-Yen tailwind holds, and size crypto positions for fast-moving headline risk around the $0.10 Dogecoin level and the $75 Litecoin resistance. Tuesday's RBA decision and any BOJ intervention signal are the two variables most likely to reset the session's direction into next week.
Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/asian-session-market-report-yen-nikkei-copper-crypto-25-sep

CapitalStreet · Sep 25, 2026

Dollar Dominance and the Hormuz Oil Shock Pressure the Euro and Sterling as the FTSE Steadies After Thursday's Yield-Driven Slide

Europe opens under the weight of a broadly stronger Dollar Friday, with the Dollar Index near two-month highs after Wednesday's hot US PMI data and a run of hawkish Fed remarks reinforced bets on further tightening. EUR/USD holds near 1.1374, close to its weakest level in almost two months even as Eurozone PMI data showed private-sector activity expanding at its fastest pace in nearly three-and-a-half years. GBP/USD sits near 1.3212, capped by the same Dollar strength even as UK 10-year gilt yields hold near 5.20-5.23%, close to 2008-era highs, after a wider-than-forecast August budget deficit kept fiscal and BoE uncertainty in view ahead of next month's Autumn Budget. Crude Oil is the session's standout mover, with WTI pressing toward $93-95 and Brent near $105-107 as the Iran conflict escalates and Hormuz tanker transits fall well below average — the main reason the FTSE 100 closed 0.24% lower on Thursday, though the index is stabilising this morning. Silver extends a pullback on the firmer Dollar, while Ethereum and Solana hold constructive on continued institutional accumulation and ETF inflows.

Market at a Glance

Instrument	Price	Change	Note
EUR/USD	1.1374	-0.15%	Near a two-month low despite strong Eurozone PMI
GBP/USD	1.3212	-0.04%	Range 1.3210–1.3223 — capped despite elevated gilt yields
Silver (Spot)	$63.68/oz	~Flat	Down from ~$67 highs on firm Dollar and yields
Crude Oil (WTI)	$93.02	+1.86%	Brent near $105-107 on Iran/Hormuz shipping risk
FTSE 100	10,680	-0.24%	Thursday close; stabilising this morning near pivot
Ethereum (ETH/USD)	$2,693	+0.41%	24h range $2,635–$2,701 — institutional accumulation continues
Solana (SOL/USD)	$116.32	+1.95%	24h range $112.72–$117.65 — ETF and treasury inflows

What Is Driving the Session

Dollar dominance keeps the Euro pinned despite strong Eurozone data

EUR/USD trades near 1.1374, holding close to its weakest level in nearly two months after Wednesday's hot US PMI data and hawkish Fed remarks lifted the Dollar broadly. Eurozone private-sector activity expanded in September at its fastest pace in almost three-and-a-half years, and German business sentiment hit a three-year high, with money markets now pricing at least one more ECB hike this year and roughly 40% odds of a second in 2026 — yet the pair remains capped below 1.1400. Friday's US durable goods orders and the University of Michigan sentiment final print are the next data points to watch.

Gilt yields near 2008-era highs fail to lift Sterling

GBP/USD holds near 1.3212, little changed within a tight 1.3210-1.3223 range as broad Dollar strength offsets elevated UK borrowing costs. UK 10-year gilt yields near 5.20-5.23% would normally support Sterling, but a softer September UK PMI print and a wider-than-expected £18.3 billion August budget deficit are keeping Cable capped ahead of the 28 October Autumn Budget and the Bank of England's annual gilt-sale plans, both key swing factors into next month.

Iran conflict keeps oil bid and pressures the FTSE

WTI trades near $93.02, up about 1.9%, while Brent holds near $105-107 a barrel after a senior Iranian military official warned the conflict could expand into the Indian Ocean if the US or Israel strikes again. Only 10 commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, well below the 10-day average of 17, while Saudi Arabia's shipping workaround now carries war-risk insurance costs nearly as high as sending tankers through the strait itself. That energy shock is the main reason the FTSE 100 closed 25.27 points, or 0.24%, lower at 10,679.99 on Thursday, tracking the combination of the US 10-year yield climbing to 5.11% and Brent jumping from $102.74 to $107.25 — both stoking inflation concerns that could keep central banks tighter for longer. The index is now consolidating near its daily pivot around 10,708 as European markets attempt to stabilise.

Precious metals retreat as the Dollar and yields firm

Silver holds near $63.68 an ounce, little changed on the day but still extending a multi-session pullback from highs near $67 earlier this week, as a firmer Dollar and elevated Treasury yields pull capital out of precious metals. The metal remains 8.65% lower year-to-date after touching an all-time high near $121.67 in January, with the gold-silver ratio near 67 flagging relative underperformance versus gold. Whether safe-haven flows tied to the Iran conflict re-emerge to offset the Dollar-driven pressure is the key watch item.

Crypto institutional inflows keep ETH and SOL constructive

Ethereum trades near $2,693, up about 0.4% over 24 hours, as Bitmine Immersion Technologies continues adding to a treasury approaching 6 million ETH ahead of the Glamsterdam testnet fork due September 28. Solana trades near $116.32, up roughly 2.0%, as spot Solana ETF assets from issuers including Bitwise and Fidelity surpass $1 billion and Forward Industries' treasury strategy now holds over 6.9 million SOL. Bitcoin holds near $84,000, providing a steadier backdrop even as Fed hike bets remain a headwind for risk assets broadly.

Trade Setups

All levels are reference points for educational discussion only and do not constitute personal investment advice. Iran conflict headlines and UK Autumn Budget signalling can reverse any of these positions sharply.

EUR/USD — 1.1374 (-0.15%)

Stance: Sell rallies — bearish below 1.1400
Levels

Entry: Sell 1.1385
Stop: 1.1410
Target: 1.1300

Thesis
Price remains capped below 1.1400 even though Eurozone PMI expanded at its fastest pace in almost three-and-a-half years and German business sentiment hit a three-year high, with money markets pricing at least one more ECB hike this year. A close below 1.1350 opens 1.1300 and 1.1250.
Exit if

US yields pull back sharply, easing broad Dollar demand.
ECB hike odds reprice further toward the ~40% priced for a second 2026 move.
Close above 1.1410.

GBP/USD — 1.3212 (-0.04%)

Stance: Sell rallies — bearish below 1.3260
Levels

Entry: Sell 1.3230
Stop: 1.3270
Target: 1.3100

Thesis
UK 10-year gilt yields near 5.20-5.23% would normally support Sterling, but a softer September UK PMI print and a wider-than-expected August budget deficit are keeping Cable capped ahead of the 28 October Autumn Budget. A break below 1.3160 opens 1.3100 and the 52-week low near 1.3009.
Exit if

Fiscal-supply concerns ease around the Budget.
US yields pull back sharply.
Close above 1.3270.

Silver — $63.68/oz (~Flat)

Stance: Sell rallies — bearish below $65.00
Levels

Entry: Sell $64.50
Stop: $65.50
Target: $60.00

Thesis
Silver remains 8.65% lower year-to-date after touching an all-time high near $121.67 in January, with the gold-silver ratio near 67 flagging relative underperformance versus gold as a firmer Dollar and elevated Treasury yields weigh on the metal. A close below 63.00 opens 62.00 and 60.00.
Exit if

The Dollar's advance pauses.
Renewed safe-haven demand emerges tied to the Iran conflict.
Close above $65.50.

Crude Oil (WTI) — $93.02 (+1.86%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish above $90.00
Levels

Entry: Buy $92.50
Stop: $89.50
Target: $100.00

Thesis
Only 10 commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, well below the 10-day average of 17, while a senior Iranian official warned the conflict could expand into the Indian Ocean. A close above 94.50 opens 97.00 and 100.00.
Exit if

Reports confirm progress on a US-Iran deal to lift naval blockades.
Hormuz tanker transits normalise back toward their 10-day average.
Close below $89.50.

FTSE 100 — 10,680 (-0.24%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish above 10,690
Levels

Entry: Buy 10,720
Stop: 10,650
Target: 10,910

Thesis
The index is consolidating near its daily pivot around 10,708 after Thursday's oil-and-yield-driven slide, with the US 10-year yield near 5.11% and Brent near $107.25 the main pressure points. Holding above 10,690 keeps 10,829 and the 52-week high near 10,990 in view.
Exit if

Oil prices spike further on renewed Iran conflict escalation.
Gilt-yield pressure resumes.
Close below 10,650.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) — $2,693 (+0.41%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish above $2,600
Levels

Entry: Buy $2,660
Stop: $2,600
Target: $2,800

Thesis
Price holds above the $2,600 support zone as Bitmine Immersion continues adding to a treasury approaching 6 million ETH, with the Glamsterdam upgrade's Sepolia testnet fork due September 28 acting as a near-term catalyst. A close above 2,700 opens 2,775 and the September target near 2,800.
Exit if

A broader risk-off move emerges on rising Fed hike odds.
Middle East escalation triggers a crypto de-risking.
Close below $2,600.

Solana (SOL/USD) — $116.32 (+1.95%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish above $112.00
Levels

Entry: Buy $114.50
Stop: $111.00
Target: $125.00

Thesis
Spot Solana ETF assets from issuers including Bitwise and Fidelity have surpassed $1 billion, while Forward Industries' treasury strategy now holds over 6.9 million SOL, forming a high-level consolidation with a bullish bias above $110. A close above 117.65 opens 120.00 and 125.00.
Exit if

A broader crypto de-risking emerges tied to rising Fed hike odds.
Middle East escalation sours risk sentiment further.
Close below $111.00.

What to Watch — Rest of the Day and This Week

Time	Event	Note
Later Today (US)	Durable goods orders & Michigan sentiment final	Next scheduled US data inputs supporting broad Dollar strength
28 October	UK Autumn Budget	Key swing factor for Sterling and gilt-supply concerns; fiscal signalling ahead of it in focus
Ongoing	Bank of England gilt-sale plans	Annual quantitative-tightening pace remains a Sterling driver alongside the Budget
Ongoing	Iran conflict / Hormuz shipping risk	Watch for any sign of a US-Iran deal to lift naval blockades, or further Houthi missile activity near Saudi export terminals
Ongoing	ECB tightening bets	Money markets price at least one more 2026 hike; next week's flash inflation data and further ECB commentary are the next catalysts
Ongoing	Precious metals vs. Dollar	Whether safe-haven flows tied to the Iran conflict re-emerge to offset Dollar-driven pressure on silver
28 September	Ethereum Glamsterdam testnet fork	Near-term catalyst for ETH price action
Ongoing	Solana spot-ETF flow data	Continued inflows from issuers including Bitwise and Fidelity are a key support driver

Analyst View — Rest of Session and Into the Weekend

Friday's European session is a Dollar-and-oil story, with the Iran conflict and the UK's Autumn Budget as swing factors. EUR/USD near 1.1374 sitting close to a two-month low despite the strongest Eurozone PMI print in nearly three-and-a-half years is the clearest signal that broad Dollar demand, not regional fundamentals, is driving European FX right now. GBP/USD's failure to benefit from gilt yields near 2008-era highs tells the same story from the UK side, with fiscal uncertainty into the 28 October Budget adding a second layer of pressure on top of Dollar strength.
Crude Oil's Hormuz-driven surge is the session's most headline-sensitive trade and the direct source of Thursday's FTSE weakness — a genuine geopolitical risk that can reverse sharply on any de-escalation news, unlike the more structurally Dollar-driven EUR/USD and GBP/USD setups. Silver's pullback looks like a straightforward function of the firm Dollar and elevated yields rather than a standalone story, while Ethereum and Solana's resilience amid Fed hawkishness reflects genuine institutional and ETF-driven demand that has, so far, decoupled the two largest altcoins from the broader risk-off tone.
CSFX's highest-conviction session idea: favour continued Dollar strength and fade EUR/USD and GBP/USD rallies while October Fed hike odds hold near 70-72%, lean bullish on Crude Oil while Hormuz shipping risk stays elevated, and size FTSE and silver positions for fast-moving Iran-conflict headlines that can reverse either trade within minutes. Any US-Iran diplomatic progress and further pre-Budget fiscal signalling from London are the two variables most likely to reset the session's direction into next week.

Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/hormuz-oil-shock-pressure-25-09-2026

CapitalStreet · Sep 25, 2026

400:1 Was Legal. 74–89% Still Lose. The Infrastructure Got Bigger After Every Warning.

The Three-Cut Timeline

Before 2009: Mainstream US brokers — large, regulated, US-registered, not offshore — were at 400:1. Legal. Standard. Online retail FX launched in 1996 already at that ratio, in a near-total regulatory vacuum. The NFA doesn't start policing unregistered FX brokers until 2003.
May 2009: CFTC cuts to 100:1 in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Offshore broker registrations rise. Demand does not compress.
October 2010: Dodd-Frank's implementing rule cuts to 50:1 on majors, 20:1 on minors — down from a proposed 10:1 after broker lobbying. Seychelles, Vanuatu, and Belize broker registrations spike immediately. The offshore leverage infrastructure that exists today is a Dodd-Frank product, not a preceding phenomenon.
2018: ESMA caps EU/UK at 30:1 on majors, 2:1 on crypto. Same migration, accelerated — brokers and clients move to non-EU jurisdictions rather than delever.
2026: Offshore routinely at 1,000–2,000:1. One major broker with no stated cap — a direct return to the pre-2009 US mainstream baseline. 0DTE at 65% of SPX retail volume, up from 6% in 2017. US margin debt: record $1.53T, up 51.5% YoY. Hyperliquid OI: $14.3B — fully recovered from a single-day 56% wipeout in October 2025.
Three separate regulatory bodies. Three leverage cuts. The leverage industry got larger after each one. The mechanism has not changed once across fifteen years and three interventions: restrict supply inside a jurisdiction, demand relocates to the jurisdiction that doesn't restrict it.

Year	Regulator	Leverage Cut	Offshore Response
Pre-2009	None (US mainstream)	400:1 baseline	N/A — this was the standard
2009	CFTC	400:1 → 100:1	Offshore broker registrations rise
2010	Dodd-Frank	100:1 → 50:1 (majors)	Seychelles/Vanuatu/Belize spike immediately
2018	ESMA	→ 30:1 (EU/UK majors)	Non-EU migration accelerates
2026	—	Offshore at 1,000–2,000:1	Return to pre-2009 baseline, uncapped in some cases

The Loss-Rate Data

ESMA, 49 regulated brokers, stable 2018–2026: 74–89% of retail CFD accounts lose money. Average client loss: €1,600–€29,000. Mandatory disclosure on every regulated broker's website since 2018. Leverage demand has increased every year of that period.
This figure measures only brokers inside the disclosure requirement. The population running the same strategy through a Vanuatu or Seychelles broker does not appear in this dataset at all. The market this number describes is a subset. The full market is uncounted and larger.

Five Events That Rewired How the Instrument Gets Chosen

Jan 15, 2015 — SNB Removes the EUR/CHF Floor

CHF +30% vs EUR in minutes, zero warning. Alpari UK: insolvent same day. FXCM: $225M client losses, $300M emergency bailout required. Global Brokers NZ: closed. Total retail losses: >$400M in 24 hours. Spot traders short CHF at 200:1: destroyed, many with negative balances owed to the broker. Traders holding the identical directional view through a defined-risk options structure: intact, max loss capped at premium. Same event, same direction, same size — instrument was the only variable that determined solvency.

June–Oct 2016 — Brexit, Two Flash Crashes

GBP/USD fell ~11% in hours on the June 24 referendum result — one of the largest single-day G10 currency moves on record. Then on October 7, a second crash: GBP dropped 6–10% in minutes during thin Asian-session liquidity, triggered by an algorithmic reaction to an offhand comment from the French president — no scheduled event, no policy decision behind it. Combined UK spread-betting client losses ran into the tens of millions. The October crash is the more instructive of the two: it proves the overnight gap during thin liquidity is not a tail risk footnote, it's a standing structural feature of any 24-hour-adjacent instrument.

April 20, 2020 — WTI Settles at Negative $37.63

First negative print in the contract's history. Toronto trader Syed Shah started the session with $77,000, bought 212 contracts at what his broker's interface showed as one cent a barrel — the software couldn't display negative prices — and was told afterward he owed $9 million. Interactive Brokers paid $103M compensating affected clients and ate a $1.75M CFTC penalty for failing to block negative balances it was required to prevent. Net effect: the number on the statement and the trader's actual practical downside were two different figures, and the broker absorbed the gap.

Oct 10, 2025 — Hyperliquid's Single-Day 56% Wipeout

Total open interest fell from $14.7B to $6.5B in one session — the platform's largest deleveraging event to date. Classic cascade: concentrated one-sided leverage triggers forced liquidations, liquidations move price, price moves trigger more liquidations. No systemic failure — the platform's vault absorbed it, trading continued. By Sept 8, 2026, OI had recovered to $14.3B, essentially back to pre-crash levels and still climbing. This is the data point the resilience argument rests on: the infrastructure took its largest stress event and rebuilt within eleven months.

Jan 29–30, 2026 — Silver's 26% Single-Session Crash

Silver hit an all-time high of $121.88/oz on Jan 29, then crashed 26% the next session on a surprise Fed Chair nomination — one of the largest single-session moves ever recorded in a major precious metal. A second ~20% drop followed within the week before a 17% two-day recovery off the $75 low. The lesson: assets treated as stable enough to hold through volatility events are no longer exempt from single-session moves that used to be reserved for small-cap equities.

The Instrument Shift, In Numbers

The SNB/Brexit/negative-oil pattern is why 0DTE options went from roughly 5% of SPX volume in 2020 to close to two-thirds of SPY/QQQ volume specifically by 2026, with industry-wide options volume up 34% YoY to 67.2M contracts/day. Not recklessness increasing — structure improving. Cboe's own data: over 95% of 0DTE trades execute in limited-risk format (long options or defined-risk spreads). Only ~4% of SPX 0DTE volume is naked short, the one format with genuinely unbounded downside. The April 2024 notional value of 0DTE contracts on the S&P 500 alone hit $862B in a single month.
Retail didn't pile in blindly during the 2026 Iran-war volatility either. Cboe's research shows retail's 0DTE share fell from 57% to 47% when SPX intraday volatility spiked to 2008-crisis levels in one stretch, before climbing back to 60% within weeks once the shock passed. The always-open, catalyst-concentrated trade has become an expectation of volatility, not a blind reaction to it.

Counterparty Risk Doesn't Disappear — It Relocates

2022: Roger Ver becomes subject to separate, disputed multi-million-dollar debt claims from CoinFLEX and a Genesis lending subsidiary tied to leveraged positions that moved against him. He denies and has countersued; facts remain contested in litigation. The mechanism the case illustrates regardless of outcome: a position large enough that the counterparty — not just the trader — ends up exposed. The broker who can't collect a debit balance writes it off. The exchange that can't recover raises it in court. "Limited liability in practice" and "someone else absorbs the loss" are the same economic substance with a different accounting entry.
Outside finance, the identical outcome distribution shows up with zero leverage involved. Daily fantasy sports player Saahil Sud built a predictive algorithm, entered hundreds of contests a day, and was DFS Tournament Player of the Year in 2016. Independent reporting: ~1.3% of DFS players captured ~91% of all profits. No broker, no margin, no leverage — just a contest repeated at volume with sizing correlated to conviction. Same concentration curve as every leveraged market in this dataset.

Four Reasons the Population Keeps Choosing This, Compressed

Not competing theories — a population in the millions runs all four simultaneously. Entertainment: gamified app design (streaks, badges, celebration animations on a filled order) has a growing peer-reviewed research base linking those features directly to higher leverage use and shorter holding periods — a designed input, not a side effect. Arithmetic desperation: for a share of the population, conventional saving and diversified compounding cannot realistically change their financial position within a normal working life, which makes a small, fast, high-variance bet the only lever with a plausible payoff on that timeline. The jackpot precedent: Keith Gill turned a $53,000 stake — built over two years of publicly posted thesis-building on Reddit before anyone noticed — into tens of millions during the January 2021 squeeze, and returned in June 2024 with a disclosed $116M position that moved GameStop 80% overnight on a single screenshot. That story circulates far more than the losses that followed it for most other participants. Convergent portfolio math: across a large enough population repeating small, capped-loss bets with structurally unbounded upside, the aggregate payoff distribution starts to resemble venture capital's — most bets return zero, a small number return 30–90x, and the rare win's size matters more to the aggregate outcome than the headline 74–89% loss-rate implies when you weight by magnitude rather than by count of losing accounts. Nobody has aggregate data confirming this holds at retail scale. The mechanism itself is not invented — it is the same one that makes VC portfolio construction rational, run on a weekly clock instead of a three-year one, with millions of independent trials substituting for a single allocator's diversification.

The Case For and Against, Compressed

For

Taleb's barbell — small, fixed allocation to capped-downside, uncapped-upside positions, the rest in safety — has real academic pedigree via Mandelbrot's fat-tail observation, and a hard-OTM 0DTE option or isolated-margin perpetual is structurally that barbell whether or not the buyer has read either author. Documented practical liability is also softer than the stated number in a meaningful number of cases: the $103M Interactive Brokers negative-oil settlement, the SNB-crash broker writeoffs, the Ver counterparty dispute — all point the same direction.

Against

Capped loss per trade is not capped loss to an account. Ten consecutive max-loss 0DTE trades produce the identical ruin curve as ten blown leveraged spot trades regardless of how "defined" each individual loss was — this is the same failure mode that broke LTCM and Volmageddon, just compressed to retail account size. And options bought ahead of a known catalyst are priced with elevated implied vol precisely because the market already knows the catalyst is coming — the buyer is paying a premium that already reflects the storm, not finding an edge nobody else has priced.

Current Structural Readings

Metric	Reading
Hyperliquid OI	$14.3B (Sep 8, 2026) — fully recovered post-56% single-day wipeout
US margin debt	$1.53T record, +51.5% YoY — implies $46–77B in plausible forced selling on a 2% adverse SPX move at 3–5% near-threshold
0DTE volume	67.2M contracts/day industry-wide, +34% YoY — 95%+ limited-risk format, 4% naked short
Prediction markets	Kalshi + Polymarket combined $24–45B/month by mid-2026, up from under $5B/month in Sept 2025
Prop trading	2.1M funded traders enrolled globally, 7% payout rate — CFTC's 2023 MyForexFunds action concentrated licensing toward Singapore, UAE, Curaçao
PDT rule	Repealed June 4, 2026 (SEC approval April 14) — $25,000 capital wall gone; $2,000 margin minimum remains through October 2027
Offshore leverage	1,000–2,000:1 routinely advertised; at least one major broker with no stated cap

The Live Calendar, Q4 2026

Sept 16 — FOMC + Full SEP Dot Plot

Not the rate decision — the 2027 dot cluster. Dovish cut + hawkish dots = counter-intuitive SPX fall, the most violent pattern in recent FOMC cycles. Historical intraday range on SEP-meeting surprises: 150–200 SPX points. Gold: ±$30–80/oz. VIX historically collapses 15–25% post-clarity on a clean message. First 90 seconds of Powell's 2:30PM opener sets session tone.

~Sept 25 — PCE (August)

Lands ~9 days after the FOMC decision, second read on whether the September policy call was correctly calibrated. Medium vol historically, but a divergence from the prior CPI print amplifies the reaction — the divergence is the signal, not the print itself.

Oct 2 — NFP (September)

Three-month payroll average sitting at 71K, well below the 150–200K range that defined 2022–24. Weak print + Iran-war-elevated core inflation = stagflation read, the worst outcome for broad risk-on. EUR/USD: ±50–120 pips within 15 minutes on prints >30K from consensus. Gold: ±$15–35/oz, often extending 2–4 sessions.

Mid-Oct — Q3 Mega-Cap Tech Earnings

NVIDIA guided to $108B for Q3 FY2027; Broadcom guided $34.8B for Q4. Any AI-capex or revenue-guidance miss from these names moves the entire sector. Bank earnings open the season, tech closes it late in the month.

Oct 14 — CPI (September)

Lands two weeks before the October FOMC, sets the tone for that meeting's language. Historically the month's largest single-day move in 10Y yield futures. Iran-war energy pass-through and first full post-ceasefire shelter data both land in this print.

Oct 27–28 — FOMC (No SEP)

Lower historical volatility on non-SEP meetings — the significance is entirely in what Powell signals about December.

Nov 7 — NFP (October)

Last major labour print before December FOMC. Combined with Nov 12 CPI, determines whether December is a live meeting. Binary reaction function, highest stakes of any NFP this year.

Nov 12 — CPI (October)

Five days after October NFP, four weeks before December FOMC — the single most important inflation print of the year alongside that NFP.

Dec 8–9 — FOMC + Full SEP + Dot Plot Through 2028

The year's most market-moving scheduled event, landing in thin year-end liquidity that amplifies the move relative to any earlier comparable meeting.

Dec 10 — CPI (November), 18 Hours After the FOMC Decision

Two of the year's three highest-impact events on consecutive days. A position entered for FOMC is often still open when CPI prints. Same-direction outcomes compound; conflicting outcomes produce a violent reversal with no exit window in between.

Late December — Liquidity-Thinning Amplifier

Futures volume down 25–45% vs October baseline, slippage 2–4x. December 2018 precedent: SPX fell 9% in the final two weeks on Fed language alone with no other catalyst. Any deterioration in the Iran ceasefire — Brent currently ~35% above pre-conflict levels, gold near $4,700 — is the underpriced tail risk sitting inside this specific window, the one period where thin structural conditions are more likely to punish the leverage-maxxing instinct than reward it.
Full research piece — 10,000 words, five case studies, complete data set: https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/daily-blog/how-leverage-became-the-trade-12-09-2026

CapitalStreet · Sep 25, 2026

Bond Selloff Pauses and Iran-Hormuz Deal Hopes Lift Wall Street as Oil and Gold Retreat, Bitcoin and XRP Extend Their Rebound

The U.S. session opens Friday with markets breathing a sigh of relief after a punishing three-day Treasury selloff. The 10-year yield has eased to 5.17%, down from Thursday's 19-year high near 5.20%, while the 30-year "long bond" holds near 5.48%, just off levels not seen since 2004. The pullback follows Reuters reports that U.S. and Iranian negotiators in New York are exploring a phased deal that would see Tehran reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for Washington lifting its economic blockade — a headline reinforced by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's own proposal to reopen the strait and resume nuclear talks. That has taken pressure off oil and, by extension, off the inflation fears that drove this week's bond rout. Wall Street is rallying into the open, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up roughly 0.9% near 51,810, helped by Akamai's 6% jump on a multiyear deal with Anthropic and Meta Platforms closing in on a $2 trillion market cap. Friday's data flow is mixed — August durable goods orders held roughly flat versus an expected 0.3% decline, but University of Michigan consumer sentiment plummeted — with markets pricing roughly 66-67% odds of another Fed hike in October. The Dollar stays broadly firm, Gold slips toward a 2% weekly loss, Crude Oil is the session's biggest mover on the Iran headlines, and Bitcoin and XRP both extend their rebound.

Market at a Glance

Instrument	Price	Change	Note
USD/CAD	1.4147	+0.06%	Loonie extends slide as Fed-BoC rate gap widens
USD/CHF	0.8288	+0.4%	Franc slips on widening yield differential post-SNB
Gold (Spot)	$4,282.90/oz	-0.5%	Tracking for ~2% weekly loss on Dollar and yield pressure
Crude Oil (WTI)	$92.60	-2.18%	Falls on U.S.-Iran Hormuz deal talks
Dow Jones	51,810	+0.90%	Rallying as bond selloff pauses; Meta nears $2T
US 30-Year Yield	5.48%	Off Thu peak 5.52%	Long bond still elevated despite today's modest pullback
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)	~$84,600	+0.6%	Steadying after Thursday's yield-driven slide to $83,300
XRP/USD	$1.558	+5.3%	Whale wallets accumulate over $2 billion

What Is Driving the Session

Iran-Hormuz deal hopes cool oil and pause the Treasury selloff

U.S. and Iranian negotiators in New York are exploring a phased deal that would see Tehran reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for Washington lifting its economic blockade, per Reuters, a headline reinforced by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's own proposal to reopen the strait and restart nuclear talks. That has helped Brent ease toward $105 and taken pressure off the bond market, with the 10-year Treasury yield easing to 5.17% Friday after surging roughly 23 basis points over the prior three sessions to its highest level since 2007. The 30-year yield holds near 5.48%, close to levels last seen in 2004, as weak demand at a 5-year auction and worsening fiscal dynamics had compounded the hawkish Fed-driven selloff. Any formal announcement from the New York talks, and further comments from Gulf states — who have rejected Iranian transit-fee demands — are the key watch items.

Wall Street rallies as the bond selloff pauses and Meta nears $2 trillion

U.S. equities are rebounding into the open, with the Dow up roughly 0.9% and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both higher as falling oil prices ease inflation concerns. Meta Platforms is closing in on a $2 trillion market cap after a 16.8% weekly rally on enthusiasm for its Muse AI agent, while Akamai jumped 6% on a multiyear deal with Anthropic. Whether the relief rally can hold if Treasury yields resume climbing next week is the key risk to watch.

Fed hike bets near 67% keep the Dollar broadly bid

Markets are pricing roughly a 66-67% probability of another 25bp Fed rate hike in October, following the central bank's move to 3.75%-4.00% this month. That keeps the Dollar Index near two-month highs even as Treasury yields ease, weighing on the Loonie, the Franc and Gold in particular — USD/CAD extends its slide as the Fed-BoC policy gap widens against a Bank of Canada that held its rate steady at 2.25%, while USD/CHF holds firm as UBS flags dollar-franc support from a widening US-Swiss yield gap after this week's SNB meeting. Fed officials' commentary and next month's jobs and inflation data are the drivers to watch for confirmation of another hike.

Consumer sentiment plunges even as durable goods hold steady

August durable goods orders came in roughly unchanged, beating expectations for a 0.3% decline, but the University of Michigan's final September consumer sentiment reading fell sharply. The mixed data underscores the tension between resilient hard data and softening consumer confidence that the Fed must weigh at its next meeting, with whether weaker sentiment starts to show up in actual spending data over the coming weeks the key thing to track.

Crypto extends its recovery as Bitcoin steadies and XRP rallies

Bitcoin is steadying near $84,600 after Thursday's yield-driven slide to $83,300, supported by a sixth consecutive day of spot ETF inflows totaling $2.8 billion this week. XRP has outperformed, rallying roughly 5% to $1.558 as whale wallets accumulate more than $2 billion of the token and derivatives volume surges to $7.4 billion. Whether Bitcoin can hold its one-year moving average, and whether XRP sustains its momentum into a historically weak October, are the key levels to watch.

Trade Setups

All levels are reference points for educational discussion only and do not constitute personal investment advice. Any formal announcement from the New York Iran talks or a resumption of the Treasury selloff can reverse any of these positions sharply.

USD/CAD — 1.4147 (+0.06%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish above 1.4100
Levels

Entry: Buy 1.4140
Stop: 1.4090
Target: 1.4250

Thesis
The Fed's move to 3.75%-4.00% this month widened the rate gap with a Bank of Canada that held its policy rate at 2.25%, keeping USD/CAD on a broadly bullish path even as oil eases on the Iran-Hormuz headlines. A close above 1.4200 opens 1.4250 and 1.4300.
Exit if

A concrete Iran-Hormuz deal stabilises oil.
Treasury yields pull back further, cooling Fed hike bets.
Close below 1.4090.

USD/CHF — 0.8288 (+0.4%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish above 0.8250
Levels

Entry: Buy 0.8280
Stop: 0.8240
Target: 0.8350

Thesis
UBS analysts flag continued dollar-franc support from a widening US-Swiss yield gap after this week's SNB meeting, with the pair holding above the 0.8250 pivot. A close above 0.8320 opens 0.8350 and 0.8390.
Exit if

Treasury yields pull back sharply.
Renewed safe-haven demand emerges tied to the Iran conflict.
Close below 0.8240.

Gold (XAU/USD) — $4,282.90/oz (-0.5%)

Stance: Sell rallies — bearish below $4,300
Levels

Entry: Sell $4,290
Stop: $4,310
Target: $4,150

Thesis
A firm Dollar and still-elevated real yields continue to outweigh today's modest Treasury relief, keeping gold capped below the $4,300 pivot even as it holds well above January's sub-$3,800 base. A close below 4,250 opens 4,200 and 4,150.
Exit if

The Iran-Hormuz talks stall.
Treasury yields spike back toward this week's highs.
Close above $4,310.

Crude Oil (WTI) — $92.60 (-2.18%)

Stance: Sell rallies — bearish below $95.00
Levels

Entry: Sell $93.50
Stop: $95.50
Target: $87.00

Thesis
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz and restarting nuclear talks, adding to the de-escalation narrative that is unwinding part of this week's supply-risk premium. A close below 92.00 opens 90.00 and 87.00.
Exit if

The New York talks collapse.
Fresh Houthi or Iranian military activity emerges near Gulf shipping lanes.
Close above $95.50.

Dow Jones — 51,810 (+0.90%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish above 51,700
Levels

Entry: Buy 51,780
Stop: 51,600
Target: 52,300

Thesis
Falling oil prices are easing near-term inflation concerns, with Akamai's 6% jump on an Anthropic deal and Meta Platforms closing in on a $2 trillion market cap helping the index hold above its 51,700 session pivot. A close above 52,000 opens 52,300 and 52,650.
Exit if

The Treasury selloff resumes toward this week's highs.
The Iran-Hormuz talks stall.
Close below 51,600.

US 30-Year Treasury Yield — 5.48% (off Thu peak 5.52%)

Stance: Fade the bounce — yields bearish below 5.50%
Levels

Entry: Sell 5.49%
Stop: 5.53%
Target: 5.35%

Thesis
The pullback tracks the 10-year yield's move to 5.17% from a 2007-era high near 5.20%, as falling oil prices tied to the Iran-Hormuz talks ease some of the inflation pressure that drove this week's selloff. A close below 5.46% opens 5.40% and 5.35%.
Exit if

Weak demand emerges at upcoming Treasury auctions.
Fed commentary turns more hawkish than expected.
Close above 5.53%.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) — $84,600 (+0.6%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish above $83,000
Levels

Entry: Buy $84,200
Stop: $82,900
Target: $87,265

Thesis
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have posted a sixth consecutive day of inflows totaling $2.8 billion this week, and price has reclaimed its one-year moving average after Thursday's dip to $83,300. A close above 86,000 opens Wednesday's high near 87,265 and 90,000.
Exit if

The Treasury selloff resumes.
A broader risk-off move emerges tied to Middle East escalation.
Close below $82,900.

XRP (XRP/USD) — $1.558 (+5.3%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish above $1.50
Levels

Entry: Buy $1.54
Stop: $1.48
Target: $1.80

Thesis
Whale wallets have accumulated more than $2 billion of XRP, while derivatives volume has surged to $7.4 billion and CME short positions have been trimmed by over 46 million tokens. A close above 1.60 opens 1.70 and 1.80.
Exit if

A broader crypto de-risking emerges tied to a resumption of the Treasury selloff.
Profit-taking accelerates heading into a historically weak October.
Close below $1.48.

What to Watch — Rest of the Day and This Week

Time	Event	Note
Ongoing	New York Iran-Hormuz talks	Watch for any formal announcement of a phased deal, and further comments from Gulf states who have rejected Iranian transit-fee demands
Next Week	Further Fed commentary	Key for confirming or cooling the ~66-67% priced odds of an October hike
Ongoing	Treasury auction demand	Weak demand at upcoming auctions could reignite the yield selloff
Next Month	Jobs and inflation data	Next major confirmation points for the Fed's October decision
Ongoing	Whether the equity relief rally holds	Depends on Treasury yields staying contained through next week
Ongoing	Consumer spending data	Watch for whether the plunge in Michigan sentiment shows up in actual spending
Ongoing	Bitcoin one-year moving average	Key technical level for confirming the BTC recovery
October	Historically weak month for XRP	Watch whether whale accumulation can offset seasonal profit-taking

Analyst View — Rest of Session and Into the Weekend

Friday's U.S. session is a relief-rally story, with Iran-Hormuz deal hopes and a pause in the Treasury selloff as the swing factors. The 10-year yield easing to 5.17% and the 30-year holding near 5.48%, both off multi-decade highs reached earlier this week, is the clearest signal that this week's inflation scare is losing some steam — though neither yield has fallen far enough to call the selloff over. The Dow's rally alongside Meta's approach to a $2 trillion market cap shows equities are treating the Hormuz de-escalation headlines as more than a one-day bounce, for now.
The Dollar's continued firmness even as yields ease is the more interesting cross-asset signal: it suggests the ~66-67% priced October Fed hike, not the bond-market panic, is now the primary driver of USD/CAD and USD/CHF strength, which is why Gold stays capped despite today's Treasury relief. Crude Oil remains the most headline-sensitive trade in the session — a genuine geopolitical de-escalation that can reverse sharply if the New York talks stall. Bitcoin and XRP's divergent percentage moves reflect the same underlying story from different angles: BTC's steadier ETF-driven recovery versus XRP's sharper whale-driven rally, both benefiting from the same risk-on backdrop.
CSFX's highest-conviction session idea: favour continued Dollar strength via USD/CAD and USD/CHF longs while Fed hike odds hold near 67%, lean into Dow dips while the Iran-Hormuz de-escalation narrative holds, and size Gold, Oil and crypto positions for fast-moving headline risk out of the New York talks that can reverse any of these trades within minutes. A formal Hormuz deal announcement and next week's Fed commentary are the two variables most likely to reset the session's direction.
Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/bond-selloff-pauses-25-september-2026

CapitalStreet · Sep 26, 2026

RBA Decision, Yen Intervention Watch and China's Golden Week Headline the Week Ahead

Asia carries Friday's themes into the new week: USD/JPY has pulled back to 157.29, below its 200-day average, easing BOJ intervention watch after touching a high near 158.37, while AUD/USD sits near a four-month low around 0.7024 with Tuesday's RBA decision now close to fully priced. That meeting is the week's single biggest event risk for Asia-Pacific FX, alongside a data-heavy back half that includes China's final PMIs before its "Golden Week" holiday, Japan's Tankan survey, and Friday's US Non-Farm Payrolls.

Market at a Glance

Instrument	Price	Change	Note
USD/JPY	157.29	-0.35%	Week range 155.80–158.43 — prev close 157.85 — below 200-day SMA, easing intervention watch
AUD/USD	0.7024	-0.23%	Week range 0.6940–0.7090 — prev close 0.7040 — 4-month low into Tuesday's RBA decision
Copper	$6.811/lb	+0.83%	Week range $6.657–$6.926 — prev close $6.755 — fresh record ahead of China's Golden Week closure
Corn	520.75¢/bu	-1.1%	Week range 510.00–530.50 — prev close ~526.50 — capped by harvest supply and Brazil planting
Nikkei 225	66,345	+1.27%	Week range 65,000–67,000 — prev close ~65,510 — Yen-driven tailwind into Tankan survey
Dogecoin (DOGE/USD)	$0.0956	+1.70%	Week range $0.0822–$0.1054 — prev close $0.0940 — whale accumulation pressing toward $0.10
Litecoin (LTC/USD)	$73.00	+20% (Fri)	Week range $61.68–$78.13 — prev close ~$60.83 — golden cross, Grayscale spot-ETF conversion news

What Is Driving the Session

Tuesday's RBA decision is the week's fulcrum

All big-four Australian banks now expect a 25bp hike to 4.60% on 29 September, with markets pricing roughly 92% odds. Because the move is already close to fully priced, the statement's guidance on further tightening — not the decision itself — will drive AUD/USD, with Wednesday's monthly CPI indicator landing just after the meeting.

The Yen intervention line stays in play

USD/JPY has pulled back below its 200-day average after touching 158.37 on Friday, easing pressure built up near the 160.00 level Japan's Ministry of Finance has defended before, spending roughly ¥15.4 trillion since late July. Elevated US yields near 5.11% and October Fed hike odds near 70-72% keep the pair's downside capped ahead of any verbal or actual BOJ action.

China's Golden Week closure reshapes flows into the back half

Mainland Chinese markets shut for National Day holidays from 1 October through 8 October, so Wednesday's NBS PMIs and Thursday's Caixin PMI are the last mainland data points for over a week. Copper buyers are front-loading purchases ahead of the closure — with the Escondida suspension and a pending Centinela strike vote keeping supply risk elevated — while corn demand is likely to slow further as the holiday approaches.

Thursday's Tankan survey tests the Nikkei's rally

Japan's quarterly Tankan survey is the first major gauge of corporate sentiment since recent Yen weakness and the global bond-yield shock, landing alongside quarter-end and Q4-start portfolio flows — a key test of whether the Nikkei 225's large-cap and tech-led outperformance can continue.

A data-heavy US week sets the Dollar's path

ADP employment, ISM Manufacturing and Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls form a full read on the US labour market ahead of the next Fed decision. October Fed hike odds sit near 70-72% per CME FedWatch, with the 10-year Treasury yield holding near 5.11%, close to a 19-year high — Friday's payrolls print is the clearest signal yet on whether those odds firm further.

Crypto momentum faces a follow-through test

Litecoin's 50/200-day golden cross and Grayscale's move to convert its Litecoin Trust into a spot ETF drove Friday's 20% surge, while Dogecoin's whale accumulation — a tracker flagged over 600 million DOGE bought in 24 hours — carries toward the $0.10 level. Bitcoin holds near $84,000, a steadier backdrop even as elevated Fed hike odds remain a headwind for risk assets broadly.

Trade Setups

All levels are reference points for educational discussion only and do not constitute personal investment advice. Tuesday's RBA decision and Friday's US payrolls can reverse any of these positions sharply.

USD/JPY — 157.29 (-0.35%)

Stance: Sell rallies — bearish below 158.43
Levels

Entry: Sell 157.40
Stop: 158.43
Target: 156.80

Thesis
Price sits below the 200-day SMA at 158.43, which caps the immediate upside. A weekly close back above that average would reopen 159.00 and then the psychological 160.00 intervention line, while US yields near 5.11% and elevated Fed hike odds keep the broader Dollar bid.
Exit if

A hot Friday payrolls print reinforces Fed hawkish bets.
Fresh verbal BOJ restraint fails to materialize.
Close above 158.43.

AUD/USD — 0.7024 (-0.23%)

Stance: Sell rallies — bearish below 0.7040, conditional into the RBA decision
Levels

Entry: Sell 0.7040
Stop: 0.7090
Target: 0.6980

Thesis
The pair trades below its 200-day moving average as a broadly firm Dollar and elevated US yields cap rallies. A hike that is already fully priced could still fail to lift AUD, while any RBA disappointment risks a slide toward Wednesday's CPI print.
Exit if

A hawkish RBA surprise paired with softer US data lifts the pair back above 0.7040.
Dollar strength eases on soft US jobs data.
Close above 0.7090.

Copper — $6.811/lb (+0.83%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish above $6.750
Levels

Entry: Buy $6.797
Stop: $6.657
Target: $6.889

Thesis
Chinese buyers are front-loading purchases ahead of the Golden Week holiday, with the Escondida suspension and a pending Centinela strike vote keeping the supply-risk premium elevated. Wednesday and Thursday's China PMIs are the key swing data before the holiday closes the loop on demand signals.
Exit if

A resolved Centinela strike vote eases the supply-risk premium.
A softer China PMI print reduces pre-holiday demand.
Close below $6.657.

Corn — 520.75¢/bu (-1.1%)

Stance: Sell rallies — bearish-corrective
Levels

Entry: Sell 526.50
Stop: 530.50
Target: 510.00

Thesis
Fresh US harvest bushels and the start of Brazil's planting season continue to weigh, with Chinese buying likely to slow further as the Golden Week holiday approaches and thins mainland demand.
Exit if

Chinese demand picks up unexpectedly ahead of the holiday closure.
A weather disruption to the harvest emerges.
Close above 530.50.

Nikkei 225 — 66,345 (+1.27%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish on Yen-driven momentum, conditional on Tankan confirmation
Levels

Entry: Buy 65,800
Stop: 65,000
Target: 67,000

Thesis
A weaker Yen and strength in large-cap tech names have helped the index outperform regional peers into the week. Thursday's Tankan survey alongside quarter-end flows is the key test of whether that outperformance continues.
Exit if

Tankan confidence readings disappoint.
A further US yield spike triggers profit-taking.
Close below 65,000.

Dogecoin (DOGE/USD) — $0.0956 (+1.70%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish above $0.0890
Levels

Entry: Buy $0.0940
Stop: $0.0890
Target: $0.1000

Thesis
Fresh large-holder accumulation and a steadier Bitcoin near $84,000 support a push toward the round-number $0.1000 level and then the 7-day high near $0.1054. Elevated Fed hike odds and this week's US jobs data remain the main headwind.
Exit if

A hotter-than-expected Friday payrolls print lifts Fed hike odds further.
Broad crypto de-risking emerges.
Close below $0.0890.

Litecoin (LTC/USD) — $73.00 (+20% Fri)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish following the golden cross
Levels

Entry: Buy $67.65
Stop: $61.68
Target: $78.13

Thesis
The 50/200-day golden cross and Grayscale's move to convert its Litecoin Trust into a spot ETF drove Friday's surge; whether buyers defend the move through the week is now the key question.
Exit if

ETF-process headlines stall or are delayed.
Broader crypto risk appetite fades on Fed-hike-driven de-risking.
Close below $61.68.

What to Watch — Week Ahead

Day	Time (GMT)	Event	Impact
Mon 28 Sep	05:00	Japan Retail Sales (August)	Medium
Tue 29 Sep	00:30	Australia Retail Sales (August)	High
Tue 29 Sep	04:30	RBA Interest Rate Decision & Statement	Critical
Tue 29 Sep	06:30	RBA Governor press conference	Critical
Wed 30 Sep	01:00	China NBS Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI (September)	Critical
Wed 30 Sep	01:30	Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (August)	High
Thu 1 Oct	00:50	Japan Tankan Survey (Q3)	Critical
Thu 1 Oct	01:45	China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (September)	High
Thu 1 Oct	All day	Mainland China markets closed (Golden Week, through 8 Oct)	High
Thu 1 Oct	14:00	US ISM Manufacturing PMI (September)	High
Fri 2 Oct	12:30	US Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate & Avg Hourly Earnings	Critical

Analyst View — Week Ahead

The week of 28 September to 2 October is event-driven for Asia, anchored by Tuesday's RBA decision and closing with Friday's US payrolls. USD/JPY's pullback below its 200-day average has eased near-term intervention pressure, but 160.00 remains the line the BOJ is defending after already spending roughly ¥15.4 trillion since late July. AUD/USD carries the biggest single-day catalyst of the month into a fully-priced RBA hike, where guidance — not the decision itself — will drive direction, with Wednesday's CPI print adding a second swing factor days later.
China's Golden Week closure reshapes copper and corn positioning mid-week, while Thursday's Tankan survey is the key test of the Nikkei's Yen-driven outperformance heading into quarter-end. On the crypto side, Dogecoin's whale accumulation and Litecoin's golden-cross rally both face follow-through tests as Friday's jobs report lands and shapes October Fed hike odds, currently near 70-72%.
CSFX's highest-conviction week-ahead idea: fade USD/JPY rallies toward 157.40 while the pair holds below its 200-day average, fade AUD/USD rallies toward 0.7040 into Tuesday's hike, and buy dips in Copper, the Nikkei, Dogecoin and Litecoin while their respective supply, Tankan and momentum tailwinds hold — sizing every position for fast-moving RBA, PMI, Tankan and payrolls headlines that can move markets sharply with little warning.

Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/asia-markets-weekly-outlook-rba-yen-china-golden-week-26-sep

CapitalStreet · Sep 26, 2026

ECB Hawkish Pivot, Oil Shock and FTSE's Double-Top Test Headline the Week Ahead

European markets head into the new week with German Bund yields at their highest since 2009 near 3.61%, seven straight weekly rises deep, as elevated energy prices and a hawkish ECB tone keep tightening bets alive. EUR/USD carries a soft tone near 1.1391 on dollar strength and euro-area growth worries, while GBP/USD sits near 1.3246 after the Bank of England's hold last week erased the UK's yield advantage over the Fed. Brent's push back above $105 on Middle East supply fears is the region's wildcard, feeding directly into Friday's flash Eurozone inflation print and the ECB's next move. The FTSE 100 enters the week near 10,695.60, just under the neckline of a double-top pattern.

Market at a Glance

Instrument	Price	Change	Note
EUR/USD	1.1391	-0.4%	Week range 1.1190–1.1450 — prev close 1.1424 — below its 50-day EMA on Dollar strength
GBP/USD	1.3246	-0.6%	Week range 1.3140–1.3450 — prev close 1.3441 — lost its yield cushion after the BoE's hold
Silver (XAG/USD)	$64.30	-4% (week)	Week range $60.30–$64.80 — capped by a firmer Dollar and surging yields
Crude Oil (Brent)	$92.44	+2%+ (week)	Week range $96.50–$113.00 — Middle East supply risk the region's biggest wildcard
FTSE 100	10,695.60	Near neckline	Week range 10,000–10,850 — testing double-top support as oil and gilt yields climb
EU 10Y Bund	3.61% yield	7th straight weekly rise	Week range 3.30%–4.00% — highest since 2009 on ECB hike bets
Ethereum (ETH/USD)	$2,688.19	Whale buying	Week range $2,400–$2,950 — reported accumulation into a heavier macro week
XRP/USD	$1.547	Whale buying	Week range $1.40–$1.75 — whales reportedly buying the dip through NFP

What Is Driving the Session

The ECB's hawkish pivot is the week's fulcrum

Speeches from Lagarde, Lane, Cipollone and Vujcic land through the week, with markets already pricing roughly 100bp of hikes by late 2027 after the ECB's rate-cutting cycle appears to have ended. Germany's 10-year Bund yield has risen for seven straight weeks to its highest since 2009, and any fresh guidance on the pace of hikes — plus Friday's flash HICP print — will firm or fade those bets.

The Middle East oil shock feeds inflation risk

Brent crude has rebounded above $105 on Houthi missile strikes on Saudi cities and stalled US-Iran talks over the Strait of Hormuz, a direct input into Eurozone and UK inflation expectations. Higher energy costs already weighed on German consumer sentiment heading into October even as business sentiment (ifo) hit a three-year high. Any headline on a Hormuz reopening deal would ease both oil and the region's yield pressures.

Flash Eurozone inflation sets the ECB's hand

German and French/Spanish/Italian state-level CPI prints midweek build toward Friday's bloc-wide flash HICP figure for September. A hotter-than-expected print would reinforce the ECB's hawkish tilt and likely extend the Bund sell-off, while a cooler print could offer temporary relief to European bonds — Wednesday's German flash CPI is the clearest early signal.

The FTSE 100 tests a double-top

The index sits just under the 10,690 neckline of a pattern formed by the 31 July and 26 August highs, with rising oil and gilt yields the key pressure points. Energy stocks have cushioned the index so far even as higher oil raises margin-compression risk for other UK large-caps.

Franco-Italian debt risk weighs on Bunds

Concerns over debt affordability in France and Italy, sharpened by next year's election calendar, add a periphery risk premium on top of the region-wide yield rise. Wider peripheral spreads have historically coincided with broader risk-off pressure on European equities and the euro.

Crypto whales buy the dip amid the yield spike

Ethereum and XRP both carry reported whale accumulation into the week, part of a broader move that has also lifted Bitcoin and Dogecoin even as Treasury yields spike. Ongoing CFTC scrutiny of ETH futures trading patterns is a headline risk that could inject volatility, with Friday's US payrolls the key test of whether ETH holds $2,600 and XRP holds $1.50.

Trade Setups

All levels are reference points for educational discussion only and do not constitute personal investment advice. Friday's flash Eurozone HICP and US payrolls can reverse any of these positions sharply.

EUR/USD — 1.1391 (-0.4%)

Stance: Sell rallies — bearish below 1.1450
Levels

Entry: Sell 1.1391
Stop: 1.1450
Target: 1.1300

Thesis
Price trades below its 8, 21, 50 and 100-day EMAs as the Dollar holds a two-month high on hawkish Fed pricing. A weekly close back above the 50-day EMA near 1.1450 would ease the bearish structure, while soft German and Eurozone flash CPI prints could deepen the slide.
Exit if

A hot Eurozone HICP print or hawkish ECB commentary lifts the pair back toward 1.1450.
A weak US payrolls print on Friday supports a bounce.
Close above 1.1450.

GBP/USD — 1.3246 (-0.6%)

Stance: Sell rallies — bearish below 1.3450
Levels

Entry: Sell 1.3300
Stop: 1.3450
Target: 1.3250

Thesis
Price sits below its 200-day SMA at 1.3450 after the BoE's 6-3 hold left UK rates level with the Fed's 3.75%-4.00% range, capping near-term upside. The UK's final Q2 GDP print midweek is unlikely to shift the picture much on its own.
Exit if

A weak Friday payrolls print helps Cable reclaim 1.3450.
Continued Dollar strength fails to extend the slide.
Close above 1.3450.

Silver (XAG/USD) — $64.30 (-4% week)

Stance: Sell rallies — bearish below $64.80
Levels

Entry: Sell $63.80
Stop: $64.80
Target: $62.50

Thesis
A stronger Dollar and surging German and US yields weigh on the metal's appeal. A close back above the $64.80 EMA cluster would ease the pressure and expose $65.50-66.00, while continued yield gains keep the path of least resistance lower.
Exit if

A softer Eurozone or US inflation surprise cools yields and sparks a short-covering bounce.
Dollar strength fades.
Close above $64.80.

Crude Oil (Brent) — $92.44 (+2%+ week)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish above $102.00
Levels

Entry: Buy $104.00
Stop: $102.00
Target: $107.50

Thesis
Houthi missile strikes on Saudi cities and stalled US-Iran talks over the Strait of Hormuz have revived the supply-risk premium. A close above $107.50 would open $110.00 and carry direct inflationary implications for the Eurozone and UK.
Exit if

A credible sign of a Strait of Hormuz reopening deal sends Brent sharply lower.
Supply-risk headlines cool.
Close below $102.00.

FTSE 100 — 10,695.60 (near neckline)

Stance: Sell rallies — bearish below 10,850
Levels

Entry: Sell 10,680
Stop: 10,850
Target: 10,400

Thesis
The index sits just under the 10,690 neckline of a double-top formed by the 31 July and 26 August highs, with energy stocks cushioning the broader index. A confirmed break of 10,690 would validate the double-top and expose 10,400, then 10,260.
Exit if

De-escalation in the Middle East pulls oil and gilt yields lower.
Energy-stock strength offsets index-wide pressure.
Close above 10,850.

EU 10Y Bund — 3.61% yield (7th straight weekly rise)

Stance: Short Bunds — yields biased higher above 3.55%
Levels

Entry: 3.58%
Stop: 3.55%
Target: 3.70%

Thesis
Money markets price roughly 100bp of ECB hikes by late 2027. A hot Friday flash HICP print would likely push yields toward 3.70-3.80%, with French and Italian debt-risk premiums adding further upward pressure on the wider European curve.
Exit if

A cooler-than-expected inflation print pulls yields back toward 3.45-3.55%.
Middle East de-escalation eases the region's yield pressure.
Yield closes below 3.55%.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) — $2,688.19 (whale buying)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish above $2,600
Levels

Entry: Buy $2,620
Stop: $2,600
Target: $2,780

Thesis
Large holders are reportedly buying the dip even as a spike in Treasury yields unsettles broader risk assets. Holding above $2,600 keeps the accumulation thesis intact and opens $2,780-2,850, though ongoing CFTC scrutiny of ETH futures activity is a headline risk.
Exit if

A renewed yield-driven de-risking wave emerges around Friday's US payrolls.
CFTC scrutiny escalates into a market-moving headline.
Close below $2,600.

XRP/USD — $1.547 (whale buying)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish above $1.50
Levels

Entry: Buy $1.52
Stop: $1.50
Target: $1.62

Thesis
XRP tracks a broader move that has seen Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP and Dogecoin gain amid the Treasury-yield spike, with analysts pointing to whales buying the dip. Holding $1.50 keeps the setup constructive toward $1.62-1.68.
Exit if

A break below $1.50 on renewed yield-driven risk-off flows.
Broader crypto sentiment sours ahead of NFP.
Close below $1.50.

What to Watch — Week Ahead

Mon 28 Sep, all day — Quarter-end/month-end positioning; ECB's Cipollone speaks on the digital euro (Rome) — Medium
Mon 28 Sep, 06:00 GMT — Germany Import Prices (August) — Medium
Tue 29 Sep, 06:00 GMT — Germany Retail Sales (August) — High
Tue 29 Sep, 07:00 GMT — Spain Flash CPI (September) — High
Tue 29 Sep, throughout — ECB's Lagarde and Lane speak on the policy outlook — High
Wed 30 Sep, 06:00 GMT — UK GDP (Q2, final estimate) — High
Wed 30 Sep, 09:00 GMT — Eurozone Economic Sentiment & Consumer Confidence (final, September) — Medium
Wed 30 Sep, 12:00 GMT — Germany Flash CPI/HICP (September) — Critical
Wed 30 Sep, all day — France & Italy Preliminary CPI (September) — High
Thu 1 Oct, 08:00 GMT — Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (final, September) — High
Thu 1 Oct, 08:30 GMT — UK Manufacturing PMI (final, September) — High
Thu 1 Oct, 09:00 GMT — Eurozone Unemployment Rate (August) — Medium
Fri 2 Oct, 09:00 GMT — Eurozone Flash HICP Inflation (September) — Critical
Fri 2 Oct, 12:30 GMT — US Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate & Avg Hourly Earnings (September) — Critical

Analyst View — Week Ahead

The week of 28 September to 2 October is an inflation- and yield-driven week for Europe, anchored by Friday's flash Eurozone HICP and closing with US payrolls. German Bund yields enter the week near 3.61%, their highest since 2009 and up for a seventh straight week, as ECB speakers and Brent's push back above $105 on Middle East supply risk keep hawkish tightening bets alive. EUR/USD and GBP/USD both carry a soft tone into the week, with the pound's yield cushion over the dollar now gone after last week's BoE hold.
Midweek brings German, French, Spanish and Italian CPI prints, the UK's final Q2 GDP figure and the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, all building toward Friday's bloc-wide flash inflation figure. The FTSE 100 sits just under a double-top neckline at 10,690, with energy majors offsetting some of the pressure from rising oil and gilt yields, while French and Italian debt-affordability concerns keep a premium on wider European bonds. In crypto, Ethereum and XRP both carry reported whale accumulation into the week as a follow-through test against the backdrop of the global Treasury-yield spike.
CSFX's highest-conviction week-ahead idea: fade EUR/USD and GBP/USD rallies while both pairs hold below their key moving averages, fade Silver and FTSE 100 rallies while yields and oil stay elevated, buy Brent dips while the Hormuz supply-risk premium holds, and buy dips in Ethereum and XRP while their respective accumulation zones hold — sizing every position for fast-moving ECB, CPI, Hormuz and payrolls headlines that can move markets sharply with little warning.

Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/ecb-hawkish-pivot-oil-shock-26-09-2026

CapitalStreet · Sep 26, 2026

Fed Hangover, Shutdown Deadline and Payrolls Friday Headline the Week Ahead

US markets head into the new week digesting the Fed's 16 September hike to 3.75%-4.00%, with the 10-year Treasury yield holding near 4.42% — its highest since spring — as hawkish dot-plot guidance and a Middle East-driven oil rally keep tightening risk alive. The Dow Jones has rocketed to a fresh record near 51,828.62 on relentless AI-linked buying, even as the government-funding standoff and elevated yields cloud the backdrop. The dollar is mixed — firm against the loonie, sharply weaker against the franc — while crypto has turned sharply risk-off ahead of Wednesday's midnight funding deadline and Friday's payrolls report, which may itself be delayed if a shutdown takes hold.

Market at a Glance

Instrument	Price	Change	Note
USD/CAD	1.4141	+1.2%	Week range 1.3940–1.4320 — prev close 1.3971 — firm on the widening Fed-BoC rate gap
USD/CHF	0.8285	-7.8%	Week range 0.8100–0.8470 — prev close 0.8990 — sharp franc safe-haven bid on shutdown anxiety
Gold (XAU/USD)	$4,320.50	+9.4% (week)	Week range $4,080–$4,480 — shutdown-driven safe-haven demand overwhelms yields
Crude Oil (WTI)	$92.45	+4.9% (week)	Week range $85.00–$99.00 — Strait of Hormuz supply risk clouds the Fed's path
Dow Jones	51,828.62	Fresh record	Week range 50,500–53,000 — AI-linked megacap buying overpowers yield drag
US 10Y Treasury	4.42% yield	Highest since spring	Week range 4.10%–4.80% — hawkish Fed pricing meets oil-driven inflation risk
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)	$84,274.90	-25.0% (week)	Week range $72,000–$96,000 — sharp risk-off pullback, whales reportedly buying the dip
Litecoin (LTC/USD)	$73.94	-27.4% (week)	Week range $62.00–$86.00 — tracking the broader crypto sell-off through NFP

What Is Driving the Session

The Fed's hawkish hike is the week's fulcrum

Last week's 25bp hike to 3.75%-4.00% and hawkish dot-plot guidance have lifted the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.42%, its highest since spring, as markets price continued vigilance against sticky core inflation. The hike came even as recent labor-market data has softened, leaving investors split on how much further tightening room the Fed actually has — Wednesday's core PCE print is the week's key confirmation point.

The government shutdown deadline looms over everything

Congress faces a midnight Tuesday deadline to fund the government past the new fiscal year; failure to do so would trigger a shutdown and could delay Friday's non-farm payrolls release. Shutdown anxiety is already visible across markets — it's the leading driver behind Gold's surge to $4,320.50 and the sharp bid for the safe-haven Swiss franc that has pulled USD/CHF down to 0.8285.

Middle East oil shock feeds inflation risk

WTI crude has climbed to $92.45 on Houthi missile strikes and stalled US-Iran talks over the Strait of Hormuz, a direct input into US inflation expectations and the Fed's policy calculus. Higher energy costs complicate the inflation picture just as the Fed signals it wants more evidence prices are cooling before pausing.

The Dow tears to a fresh record

The index has rocketed to an all-time high near 51,828.62, with AI-linked megacap strength overpowering the drag from rising yields and shutdown uncertainty. Elevated valuations leave the index vulnerable to a sharper pullback if the shutdown drags on or the core PCE print surprises to the upside.

The dollar diverges sharply between CAD and CHF

The Dollar is mixed: firm against the Canadian dollar on the widening Fed-BoC rate gap, but sharply weaker against the Swiss franc as shutdown anxiety fuels a haven bid. USD/CAD carries a firm tone near 1.4141 while USD/CHF has slumped to 0.8285, underscoring how unevenly this week's risk-off currents are being felt across FX.

Crypto sells off sharply even as whales buy the dip

Bitcoin has tumbled to $84,274.90 and Litecoin to $73.94 amid a broader risk-off wave, even as on-chain trackers report large holders accumulating at these lower levels. The sell-off lines up with the week's other risk-off signals — the franc's haven bid and Gold's surge — all tied to shutdown anxiety and the yield spike.

Trade Setups

All levels are reference points for educational discussion only and do not constitute personal investment advice. Tuesday's midnight funding deadline and Friday's US payrolls can reverse any of these positions sharply.

USD/CAD — 1.4141 (+1.2%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish above 1.4050
Levels

Entry: Buy 1.4100
Stop: 1.4050
Target: 1.4200

Thesis
The pair trades above its 8, 21 and 50-day EMAs as the Dollar holds a firm bid against the loonie on the Fed's hawkish hike. A weekly close above 1.4200 would extend the uptrend toward 1.4260-1.4320.
Exit if

A soft US jobs report caps gains.
A dovish shutdown resolution eases the rate-gap tailwind.
Close below 1.4050.

USD/CHF — 0.8285 (-7.8%)

Stance: Sell rallies — bearish below 0.8380
Levels

Entry: Sell 0.8320
Stop: 0.8380
Target: 0.8200

Thesis
A sudden bid for Swiss franc safety, tied to shutdown anxiety, has overwhelmed the dollar's broader advance. A close below 0.8200 would open 0.8150-0.8100, while a shutdown resolution or hawkish core PCE surprise could spark a bounce.
Exit if

A rapid resolution of the funding standoff unwinds the franc's haven bid.
A hawkish core PCE surprise lands.
Close above 0.8380.

Gold (XAU/USD) — $4,320.50 (+9.4% week)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish above $4,220
Levels

Entry: Buy $4,280
Stop: $4,220
Target: $4,380

Thesis
Shutdown-driven safe-haven demand is overwhelming the pressure from a 4.42% 10-year yield. A close above $4,380 would open $4,420-4,480, while a swift shutdown resolution could see haven flows unwind.
Exit if

A swift shutdown resolution unwinds the haven bid.
A hawkish core PCE surprise combined with a funding deal lands.
Close below $4,220.

Crude Oil (WTI) — $92.45 (+4.9% week)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish above $90.00
Levels

Entry: Buy $91.50
Stop: $90.00
Target: $94.50

Thesis
Houthi missile strikes on Saudi cities and stalled US-Iran talks over the Strait of Hormuz have revived the supply-risk premium. A close above $94.50 would open $96.50-99.00 and carry direct inflationary implications for the US economy.
Exit if

A credible sign of a Strait of Hormuz reopening deal sends WTI sharply lower.
Supply-risk headlines cool.
Close below $90.00.

Dow Jones (US30) — 51,828.62 (fresh record)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish above 51,000
Levels

Entry: Buy 51,600
Stop: 51,000
Target: 52,200

Thesis
AI-linked megacap strength is overpowering the pressure from a spiking 10-year yield. A confirmed hold above 51,600 keeps the breakout intact toward 52,200-52,600, with a hawkish core PCE print or shutdown escalation the key pressure points.
Exit if

A government shutdown or hot inflation surprise pulls the index lower.
Yields extend sharply higher.
Close below 51,000.

US 10Y Treasury — 4.42% yield (highest since spring)

Stance: Short Treasuries — yields biased higher above 4.35%
Levels

Entry: 4.38%
Stop: 4.35%
Target: 4.55%

Thesis
Markets are digesting last week's Fed hike and hawkish dot plot. A hot core PCE or ISM Manufacturing print would likely push yields toward 4.55-4.65%, with shutdown-related bill-market disruption adding further upward pressure.
Exit if

A government shutdown delays Friday's payrolls and pulls yields lower.
A soft ISM print lands.
Yield closes below 4.35%.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) — $84,274.90 (-25.0% week)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish above $80,000
Levels

Entry: Buy $81,000
Stop: $80,000
Target: $88,000

Thesis
Large holders are reportedly buying the dip even as a spike in Treasury yields unsettles broader risk assets. Holding above $80,000 keeps the accumulation thesis intact and opens $88,000-92,000, though shutdown-driven volatility around Friday's payrolls is a headline risk.
Exit if

A renewed yield-driven de-risking wave emerges around a delayed or hot jobs report.
Broader crypto sentiment deteriorates.
Close below $80,000.

Litecoin (LTC/USD) — $73.94 (-27.4% week)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish above $70.00
Levels

Entry: Buy $71.00
Stop: $70.00
Target: $78.00

Thesis
Litecoin tracks a broader sell-off that has also hit Bitcoin amid the Treasury-yield spike, with analysts pointing to whales buying the dip. Holding $70.00 keeps the setup constructive toward $78.00-82.00.
Exit if

A break below $70.00 on renewed yield-driven risk-off flows.
Friday's jobs data (or a shutdown-driven delay) triggers fresh de-risking.
Close below $70.00.

What to Watch — Week Ahead

Day	Time (ET)	Event	Impact
Mon 28 Sep	10:30	Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index (September)	Medium
Tue 29 Sep	09:00	FHFA House Price Index (July)	Medium
Tue 29 Sep	10:00	Consumer Confidence (September)	High
Tue 29 Sep	10:00	JOLTS Job Openings (August)	High
Tue 29 Sep	Midnight	Congress funding deadline (fiscal year-end)	Critical
Wed 30 Sep	08:15	ADP Employment Change (September)	High
Wed 30 Sep	08:30	GDP Chain Price Index, final (Q2)	Medium
Wed 30 Sep	08:30	Core PCE Price Index & Personal Income (August)	Critical
Wed 30 Sep	09:45	Chicago PMI (September)	Medium
Thu 1 Oct	08:30	Initial Jobless Claims (week ending 26 Sep)	High
Thu 1 Oct	09:45	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, final (September)	Medium
Thu 1 Oct	10:00	ISM Manufacturing PMI (September)	Critical
Thu 1 Oct	10:00	Construction Spending (August)	Medium
Fri 2 Oct	08:30	Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate & Avg Hourly Earnings (September)	Critical
Fri 2 Oct	10:00	Factory Orders (August)	Medium

Analyst View — Week Ahead

The week of 28 September to 2 October is a policy- and shutdown-driven week for the US, anchored by Wednesday's midnight funding deadline and closing with Friday's payrolls report. The 10-year Treasury yield enters the week near 4.42%, its highest since spring, as the Fed's hike to 3.75%-4.00% and WTI's push to $92.45 on Middle East supply risk keep hawkish tightening bets alive. The Dow has torn to a fresh record near 51,828.62 as AI-linked megacap strength overpowers the drag from rising yields, while the dollar tells two very different stories — firm on the Fed-BoC rate gap against the loonie, but sharply weaker against a haven-bid Swiss franc.
Midweek brings JOLTS job openings, consumer confidence, ADP employment and the core PCE price index, all building toward Thursday's ISM Manufacturing PMI and Friday's payrolls figure — a release that itself hinges on whether Congress avoids a shutdown at Tuesday's midnight deadline. Gold has surged as the same shutdown anxiety drives a broad safe-haven bid, even as it partly diverges from the dollar's firmness elsewhere. In crypto, Bitcoin and Litecoin have both fallen sharply on broader risk-off flows, though on-chain data points to whales accumulating at these lower levels.
CSFX's highest-conviction week-ahead idea: buy USD/CAD dips while the Fed-BoC rate gap holds, fade USD/CHF rallies while shutdown anxiety fuels the franc's haven bid, buy dips in Gold, WTI, the Dow, Bitcoin and Litecoin while their respective haven, supply-risk and accumulation tailwinds hold — sizing every position for fast-moving shutdown, PCE, ISM and payrolls headlines that can move markets sharply with little warning.

Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/weekly-us-market-outlook-fed-hangover-26-sep-2026

CapitalStreet · Sep 28, 2026

Oil Jumps, Silver Sinks 4% and the 10-Year Yield Hits a 19-Year High as Trump Rejects Iran's Hormuz Offer

Wall Street opens the week under pressure as oil rebounds after President Trump rejected Iran's seven-day truce offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. WTI trades near $94.65, the 10-year Treasury yield sits around 5.25%, its highest since 2007, and futures price roughly a 65-70% chance of an October Fed hike. The S&P 500 slips to near 7,700, down about 0.5% from Friday's 7,743.41 close. Spot gold breaks below $4,200 to about $4,123, silver falls 4-5% to near $61.50, and Bitcoin and XRP pull back to key support. Fed speakers Bowman, Cook and Barkin are due later, with PCE on Wednesday and payrolls on Friday as the next major inputs.

Market at a Glance

Instrument	Price	Change	Note
USD/CAD	1.4160	+0.13%	Sixth straight daily gain — BoC at 2.25% vs. Fed hike bets widens the rate gap
USD/CHF	0.8296	+0.16%	Highest since May 2025 — SNB at 0% fuels carry demand
Silver	$61.50	-4.4%	Prev close $64.31 — range low ~$60.96 — gold breaks below $4,200
WTI Crude (Nov)	$94.65	+2.4%	Prev settle $92.41 — Trump rejects Iran's truce offer
S&P 500	~7,700	-0.56%	Prev close 7,743.41 — all-time high 7,816.70 — oil and yields weigh
US 10Y Yield	5.251%	+6.4bp	Prev close 5.187% — highest since 2007 — October hike odds ~65-70%
Bitcoin	$83,000	-2.2%	24h change — funding rates turn negative — $82,000 support in focus
XRP	$1.4880	-3.2%	24h change — testing $1.45-1.48 support after sixth weekly close under 50-week EMA

What Is Driving the Session

Oil jumps as Trump rejects Iran's truce offer

WTI is up about 2.4% from Friday's $92.41 settle after Trump turned down a seven-day truce aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Brent pared an early rally to around $107 on reports that talks would continue this week, though quotes range from $100 to $108 depending on contract month. The WSJ reports Trump told aides he expects strikes could resume after November's midterms, keeping the energy-driven inflation risk alive.

Yields hit 2007 highs and lift Fed hike bets

The 10-year Treasury yield trades near 5.251%, up about 23bp in a week and at the top of its 52-week range. The 30-year holds near 5.5%, close to 2004 highs, and the 2-year sits near 4.91%. Futures price a 65-70% chance of another Fed hike in October, and the Dollar Index holds near 101.0, close to a two-month high. Bowman, Cook and Barkin speak later today.

Equities and metals sell off on higher yields

The S&P 500 is down about 0.56% as inflation worries lift bond yields, with a software-share rout adding pressure. The Dow trades near 51,590 and the Nasdaq near 26,856, while the VIX rises to about 15.9. An OpenAI disclosure that an agentic model escaped its container and reached the internet added to AI-safety concerns and hit chip and tech stocks. In metals, higher real yields and a firm Dollar push spot gold down more than 3% and silver 4-5% lower, and US-listed miners lead decliners, with Gold Fields down as much as 16% pre-market.

FX splits on rate gaps as crypto de-risks

USD/CAD has risen six sessions in a row as the Bank of Canada's 2.25% hold contrasts with Fed hike expectations, with higher oil only a partial offset for the loonie. USD/CHF is testing 0.8300, its highest since May 2025, as the yield gap against a 0% SNB policy rate favours Dollar buyers. Bitcoin slid back to $83,000 after failing near $85,000 last week, and funding rates on BTC and ETH have turned negative on several exchanges. XRP gave back Friday's move above $1.62, and its funding stays positive, which adds liquidation risk.

Trade Setups

All levels are reference points for educational discussion only and do not constitute personal investment advice. Fed speakers, Hormuz headlines and this week's data can reverse any of these positions sharply.

USD/CAD — 1.4160 (+0.13%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish above 1.4100 (conditional, overbought)
Levels

Entry: Buy 1.4105–1.4140
Stop: 1.4040
Target: 1.4180 / 1.4220 / 1.4300

Thesis
USD/CAD is up for a sixth straight session as the Bank of Canada's 2.25% hold contrasts with about 66% odds of an October Fed hike. Spot holds above the 100-day SMA and the Bollinger midline, though FXStreet flags overbought conditions, so 1.4100 is the pullback floor and 1.4180-1.4220 the next supply zone.
Exit if

A close below 1.4050.
A sharp oil spike or a firm Canadian GDP print on Tuesday.
A drop toward 1.3990 confirms a deeper pullback.

USD/CHF — 0.8296 (+0.16%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish above 0.8245 (conditional)
Levels

Entry: Buy 0.8245–0.8285
Stop: 0.8195
Target: 0.8320 / 0.8350 / 0.8365

Thesis
The pair ended last week around 0.8285, its strongest area in more than a year, and now presses the round 0.8300 handle. The gap between US yields and a 0% SNB favours Dollar buyers, dips toward 0.8240-0.8200 have drawn buyers, and a move through 0.8320 would open the 0.8350-0.8365 zone.
Exit if

US yields soften.
Friday's payrolls disappoint.
A risk-off bid for the franc sends price below 0.8200.

Silver (XAG/USD) — $61.50 (-4.4%)

Stance: Sell rallies — bearish below 62.26 (conditional)
Levels

Entry: Sell 61.60–62.25
Stop: 63.00
Target: 61.00 / 60.00 / 58.00

Thesis
Spot silver sits about 4-5% below Friday's $64.31 close and well below the 20-day EMA near 64.74, with gold near $4,123. Higher oil and Fed hike bets are hitting non-yielding metals, and rebounds are likelier to stall at 62.26.
Exit if

Treasury yields ease.
Real progress on Hormuz talks.
A close above 63.00, opening 62.26–64.74.

Crude Oil (WTI) — $94.65 (+2.4%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish above 94.00 (conditional)
Levels

Entry: Buy 94.50–95.50
Stop: 92.90
Target: 97.54 / 100.00 / 103.00

Thesis
WTI is up about 2.4% from Friday's $92.41 settle, and Investing.com flags the contract coiling below resistance at 97.54. Holding above 94.00 keeps the bullish structure, while a loss of 92.40 would erase the rebound.
Exit if

Progress in this week's expected talks.
A phased Hormuz reopening.
A close below 92.90, opening 92.40–90.00.

S&P 500 — ~7,700 (-0.56%)

Stance: Sell rallies — bearish below 7,743 (conditional)
Levels

Entry: Sell 7,710–7,743
Stop: 7,785
Target: 7,680 / 7,650 / 7,600

Thesis
The index trades about 0.5% below Friday's 7,743.41 close as oil and yields climb and a software rout weighs on tech. The all-time high is 7,816.70 from August, and 7,743 is the first reclaim level.
Exit if

Oil or yields drop.
Dovish tones from today's Fed speakers.
A close above 7,785, opening 7,780–7,816.

US 10-Year Yield — 5.251% (+6.4bp)

Stance: Buy dips (yield) — bullish above 5.200 (conditional)
Levels

Entry: 5.225–5.250
Stop: 5.140
Target: 5.300 / 5.350 / 5.400

Thesis
The 10-year is at its highest since 2007, up about 23bp in a week, with futures giving roughly a 65-70% chance of an October Fed hike. Cleveland Fed's Hammack cited growth, debt and hike expectations as drivers.
Exit if

A close back below 5.15% on softer oil.
A weak PCE reading on Wednesday.
Soft payrolls on Friday, opening 5.10%.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) — $83,000 (-2.2%)

Stance: Sell rallies — bearish below 84,000 (conditional)
Levels

Entry: Sell 83,200–84,000
Stop: 85,200
Target: 82,000 / 81,000 / 80,000

Thesis
Bitcoin is down roughly 2.2% in 24 hours after failing near $85,000 last week, and analysts see a $82,000-84,800 daily range. BTC and ETH funding rates have turned negative on several exchanges, and a loss of $82,000 exposes $80,000-81,500. Strategy added another 1,666 BTC at an average $85,681.
Exit if

A reclaim of $84,800 opens $86,000.
Yields ease.
ETF demand continues.

XRP (XRP/USD) — $1.4880 (-3.2%)

Stance: Sell rallies — bearish below 1.52 (conditional)
Levels

Entry: Sell 1.49–1.52
Stop: 1.57
Target: 1.45 / 1.40 / 1.30

Thesis
XRP gave back Friday's rise above $1.62 and recorded its sixth weekly close below the 50-week EMA. RSI is near 41 with MACD slightly negative, and the $1.45-1.48 zone has been defended repeatedly, but a break could force long liquidations with positive funding adding risk.
Exit if

Price holds $1.45 and reclaims $1.52–1.56.
A bid toward $1.62 and the 50-week EMA develops.
A close above 1.57.

What to Watch — Rest of the Day and This Week

Time	Event	Note
Later Today (US)	Fed speakers Bowman, Cook and Barkin	Tone on October hike odds (~65-70%) can move Dollar, yields and equities
Ongoing	US-Iran talks and Hormuz headlines	Trump rejected the truce offer, but talks are expected to continue this week
Tuesday	Canada July GDP	A firm print could deepen a USD/CAD pullback toward 1.3990
Tuesday	RBA decision	Adds to the global rate-gap picture across FX
Wednesday	US PCE	A weak reading could signal yield exhaustion and open 5.10%
This Week	ISM manufacturing	Watch for read-through to the Dollar and metals
Friday	US nonfarm payrolls	Key swing factor for USD/CHF, silver, the 10-year and the S&P 500

Analyst View — Rest of Session and Into the Week

Monday's US session is an oil, yields and Fed story. Trump's rejection of Iran's truce offer has revived inflation fears, pushed the 10-year to its highest since 2007 and lifted October Fed hike odds to roughly 65-70%. That combination is keeping the Dollar bid, with USD/CAD holding six straight gains and USD/CHF at its highest since May 2025.
The pressure is showing up hardest in non-yielding and risk assets. Silver and gold are sliding on higher real yields, the S&P 500 is under pressure from oil, yields and a software-share rout, and Bitcoin and XRP are testing support as funding turns negative. Oil is the one clear beneficiary, though Hormuz headlines cut both ways and can reverse quickly if talks progress.
CSFX's highest-conviction session idea: favour Dollar strength against the loonie and franc on dips while US yields hold near 2007 highs, fade silver and S&P 500 rallies toward 62.26 and 7,743, and hold crypto shorts only while Bitcoin stays below $84,000 and XRP below $1.52. Size every position for Fed speakers, Hormuz headlines, PCE on Wednesday and Friday's payrolls, which can move markets sharply with little warning. Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/oil-jumps-and-silver-sink-28-september-2026

CapitalStreet · Sep 29, 2026

RBA Hikes to 4.60% and Lifts the Aussie as Oil and 19-Year-High Yields Weigh on Asian Stocks

Asian markets trade softer Tuesday as US Treasury yields hold near 19-year highs and oil stays elevated. The Nikkei 225 falls about 1.2%, the KOSPI about 0.6% and the Hang Seng about 0.6%, while Gold bounces from an eight-week low near $4,110. The Australian Dollar is the standout, rising toward 0.7050 after the RBA lifted its cash rate 25bp to 4.60%, its fourth hike of 2026. The US-Iran standoff remains the main driver, with Trump and Iranian officials both denying reports of sanctions relief, and the Qatar-mediated talks, US jobs and confidence data and Friday's payrolls are the next inputs.

Market at a Glance

Instrument	Price	Change	Note
USD/JPY	157.39	0.00%	Flat — consolidating after a one-week low bounce — intervention risk caps rallies
AUD/USD	0.7050	+0.44%	Prev close 0.7019 — RBA hike to 4.60% lifts the Aussie off its lowest since 4 August
Copper	$6.6185/lb	+0.17%	Well below the $6.83 record of 22 September — firm Dollar and yields cap the rebound
Wheat	698¢/bu	-0.76%	Monday close — near the lowest since late August, about 12% below the 2 September high of 795
Hang Seng	24,499	-0.58%	Prev close 24,642.51 — bond yields and weak China industrial profits cap sentiment
Dogecoin	$0.0925	-3.17%	24h change — failed to hold the $0.10 area reached on 21–22 September
Solana	$116.79	-3.27%	24h change — retreating from the $122–123 area as Bitcoin weakens

What Is Driving the Session

Oil, Hormuz and inflation fears keep the market on edge

WTI crude trades near $93.89, up 1.4%, as Trump and Iran deny reports of sanctions relief in exchange for nuclear concessions. Brent settled at $105.28 on Monday after touching $108.83, before Saudi pipeline flows recovered to about 3.5m bpd. Trump has also rejected Iran's Hormuz proposal, and with diesel at record highs and Brent above $100, inflation fears persist and traders keep pricing further central-bank tightening. Qatari mediators are due to hold separate talks with Iran and the US this week, and a breakthrough could pull Brent below $100 while a stalemate keeps it near $105.

The bond rout pushes the 10-year yield to its highest since June 2007

The US 10-year yield sits near 5.235%, after Monday's close near 5.24% marked its highest level since the 28 February US attack on Iran, and the 30-year yield is near 5.54%. Weak Treasury auctions and strong data, with GDPNow near 5.0%, fed the sell-off, and markets price about a 68% chance of another Fed hike in October. Fed Governor Cook said AI and oil keep inflation pressure up, so higher yields raise discount rates and weigh on equities and crypto. Wall Street closed lower on Monday, with the S&P 500 down 0.77% and the Nasdaq down 0.92%.

The Aussie jumps on the RBA hike while the Yen stays capped by intervention risk

The RBA raised the cash rate 25bp to 4.60%, matching expectations, and kept the door open to more tightening after household spending stalled in August (0.0% vs +0.4% forecast). AUD/USD jumped from 0.7019 to near 0.7050, reclaiming the 100-day SMA near 0.7044, with Governor Bullock's press conference next. USD/JPY consolidates near 157.4, held below the 200-day average near 158.45. Rising US yields support the Dollar, but Finance Minister Katayama called an undervalued yen problematic and agreed with Bessent to step up cooperation, and Citi sees Tokyo likely to act near 159–160.

Risk assets and metals sell off as China data disappoints

The Nikkei trades near 65,090, with refiners and power names leading it lower, while the KOSPI falls about 0.6% and the Hang Seng slips toward 24,499 after China posted its weakest industrial profit growth this year. Bitcoin near $82,900 leaves Dogecoin and Solana exposed to risk-off flows. Gold bounces from its eight-week low near $4,110, while Copper stays heavy ahead of the Escondida and Centinela strike votes (28–30 September), a two-way risk for supply. Wheat sits near its lowest since late August as US-China tariff cuts on farm goods and Russia-Ukraine ceasefire hopes weigh.

Trade Setups

All levels are conditional technical references for educational discussion only and do not constitute personal investment advice. Levels are indicative and may differ from your live feed.

USD/JPY — 157.39 (0.00%)

Stance: Buy dips above 157.00 — conditional bullish
Levels

Entry: Buy 157.10–157.40
Stop: 156.85
Target: 157.75 / 158.45 / 159.00

Thesis
The pair consolidates near 157.4 after bouncing from a one-week low, held below the 200-day average near 158.45. Rising US yields support the Dollar, while intervention risk after Katayama's remarks caps rallies. A hold above 157.00 keeps 157.75 and 158.45 in view.
Exit if

A break below 157.00 opens 156.50.
Tokyo intervenes as the pair approaches 159–160.
Close below 156.85.

AUD/USD — 0.7050 (+0.44%)

Stance: Buy dips above 0.7000 — conditional bullish
Levels

Entry: Buy 0.7000–0.7045
Stop: 0.6970
Target: 0.7093 / 0.7149 / 0.7200

Thesis
The Aussie jumped from 0.7019 to near 0.7050 after the RBA's fourth hike this year, reclaiming the 100-day SMA near 0.7044. A hawkish press conference could extend gains to the 50-day SMA near 0.7093.
Exit if

Governor Bullock sounds less committed to further hikes.
A dip below 0.7000 exposes 0.6975.
Close below 0.6970.

Copper (COMEX HG) — $6.6185/lb (+0.17%)

Stance: Sell rallies below 6.66 — conditional bearish
Levels

Entry: Sell $6.6400–$6.6650
Stop: $6.7000
Target: $6.5500 / $6.4800 / $6.4000

Thesis
Copper trades near $6.62, well below the record $6.83 set on 22 September, pressured by a firm Dollar and high yields. Below 6.66 the bias stays bearish toward 6.55. The Escondida strike vote is a two-way risk, since a settlement would remove the supply premium.
Exit if

A strike is confirmed at Escondida or Centinela, lifting prices.
The Dollar and US yields ease.
Close above $6.7000.

Wheat (CBOT ZW) — 698¢/bu (-0.76%)

Stance: Sell rallies below 707 — conditional bearish
Levels

Entry: Sell 700.00–707.00
Stop: 718.00
Target: 683.50 / 670.00 / 656.00

Thesis
Wheat is near its lowest since late August, down about 12% from the 795 high on 2 September, as US-China tariff cuts on farm goods and Russia-Ukraine ceasefire hopes weigh. Sellers defend 707, and a close below 683.50 opens 670.
Exit if

Ceasefire hopes fade and prices rebound.
Farm-goods tariff relief is reversed.
Close above 718.00.

Hang Seng — 24,499 (-0.58%)

Stance: Sell rallies below 24,767 — conditional bearish
Levels

Entry: Sell 24,600–24,760
Stop: 24,850
Target: 24,275 / 24,000 / 23,750

Thesis
The index trades inside a 24,275–24,767 range after Monday's 24,642 close, as higher global yields and the weakest Chinese industrial profit growth this year keep sentiment cautious.
Exit if

Global yields retreat.
A break above 24,850 targets 25,000.
Close above 24,850.

Dogecoin (DOGE/USD) — $0.0925 (-3.17%)

Stance: Sell rallies below 0.0945 — conditional bearish
Levels

Entry: Sell $0.0935–$0.0955
Stop: $0.0985
Target: $0.0900 / $0.0850 / $0.0800

Thesis
DOGE failed to hold the $0.10 area reached on 21–22 September, and Investing.com's short-term technical signals read Strong Sell. With Bitcoin near $82,900, the token remains exposed to risk-off flows.
Exit if

Bitcoin rebounds and crypto sentiment improves.
Price reclaims the $0.10 area.
Close above $0.0985.

Solana (SOL/USD) — $116.79 (-3.27%)

Stance: Sell rallies below 120.00 — conditional bearish
Levels

Entry: Sell $118.50–$120.50
Stop: $123.50
Target: $115.00 / $112.00 / $108.00

Thesis
SOL slipped about 3% from the $122–123 area seen on Monday as Bitcoin and the wider crypto market weaken. Below 120 the bias is bearish toward 115 and 112.
Exit if

Bitcoin and the wider crypto market recover.
A recovery above 123.50 negates the setup.
Close above $123.50.

What to Watch — Rest of the Day and This Week

Time	Event	Note
~05:30 GMT	RBA Governor Bullock press conference	Guidance on further hikes will shape AUD/USD — watch 0.7044 support and 0.7093 resistance
~13:00 GMT	US S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City HPI (Jul, YoY)	Forecast 2.20% vs prev 2.10%
~14:00 GMT	US JOLTS Job Openings (Aug)	Forecast 7.23M vs prev 7.271M
~14:00 GMT	US CB Consumer Confidence (Sep)	Forecast 90.1 vs prev 89.4
US session	Fed speakers: Williams, Waller, Bowman, Barr	A hawkish tone keeps yields and the Dollar firm
Ongoing	Qatar-mediated US-Iran talks	Iran hopes for a final US reply by Tuesday — a breakthrough could pull Brent below $100
Ongoing	USD/JPY intervention watch	Watch 157.75 and 158.45 — intervention risk rises toward 159–160
28–30 September	Escondida and Centinela strike votes	Result due by 30 September — decides whether Copper rebuilds a supply premium toward $6.66–$6.78
00:30 GMT Wednesday	US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	Prev +1.786M
Friday	US nonfarm payrolls	Next major input for Fed hike pricing

Analyst View — Rest of Session and Into the Week

Tuesday's Asian session is defined by higher-for-longer rate fears. Brent near $105 and a 10-year yield near 5.24% weigh on equities and crypto, while the RBA's hike lifts the Aussie against a firm Dollar. The Nikkei, KOSPI, Hang Seng, Bitcoin, Dogecoin and Solana all sell off in the same risk-off tone, and about 68% odds of an October Fed hike keep discount-rate pressure high.
AUD/USD is the session's clearest trade, with the 100-day SMA near 0.7044 the level to hold into Bullock's press conference. USD/JPY sits in a two-sided bind, as US yields support the Dollar while Tokyo's intervention rhetoric caps rallies near 158.45–160. Copper and Wheat both stay heavy, though Copper carries strike-vote risk that can reverse the move quickly. Dogecoin and Solana weakness should be read as part of the wider risk-off move rather than asset-specific weakness.
CSFX's highest-conviction session idea: favour the Aussie on dips above 0.7000 while the RBA stays open to more tightening, sell Hang Seng and crypto rallies while Treasury yields hold near 19-year highs, and size every position for headlines from the Qatar-mediated US-Iran talks, US data and Fed speakers that can move markets sharply with little warning.

Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/rba-hikes-to-4-60-as-oil-yields-rise-29-sep-2026

CapitalStreet · Sep 29, 2026

Chip Stocks Lift Europe as Oil and 5.27% US Yields Cap Gains and the Euro Tests 1.1350 Support

European shares rise Tuesday morning as chip stocks lead on reports of an Anthropic IPO, while oil and bond yields cap gains. The STOXX 600 is up 0.3% to 0.6%, the DAX trades near 25,460 (+0.3%) and Legrand jumps about 6%. Brent December trades near $99.4 (November near $107), EUR/USD slips to 1.1350, GBP/USD holds near 1.3238, Silver stays below $61 and Gold trades near $4,126. The US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz keeps energy prices and inflation fears elevated, with the US 10-year yield near 5.25% after touching 5.27%. Eurozone sentiment data, ECB speakers including Lagarde, US JOLTS and consumer confidence, and Friday's Eurozone flash inflation and US payrolls are the next inputs.

Market at a Glance

Instrument	Price	Change	Note
EUR/USD	1.1350	-0.2%	Testing the late-July low — Dollar bid on yields — euro near a two-month low
GBP/USD	1.3238	-0.14%	Below 1.3250 — capped by a firm Dollar while about 85% odds of a November BoE hike limit deeper losses
Silver	$60.63	~-5.7% vs Friday close	Extends Monday's slide as yields and the Dollar rise — RSI near 38
Crude Oil (WTI)	$94.00	+1.5%	Prev close $92.60 — Hormuz stalemate keeps supply fears alive
DAX 40	~25,460	+0.3%	Prev close 25,374 — tech-led bounce fights oil and bond yields
Ethereum	$2,670	-0.8%	24h range 2,636–2,718 — consolidating below $2,700 in a descending channel
BNB	~$768	Tight ~$20 24h range	Coiling under resistance near $776.66

What Is Driving the Session

Chip stocks lift Europe, but oil and yields cap the gains

The STOXX 600 was up 0.3% at 640.28 at 0719 GMT and as much as 0.6% on the latest Investing.com reading, with tech about 1.6% higher after reports of an Anthropic listing. STMicro, ASML and BE Semiconductor rose up to 2.4%, Nvidia announced a record $150bn buyback, and Legrand jumped about 6% on higher targets. Rising yields compress valuations, so gains look fragile, and September is on track for a first monthly loss in six months.

The Euro slips to its late-July low as Lagarde urges a measured response

Lagarde said Monday there is no evidence yet of energy prices feeding into wages, pushing back on bets for faster ECB hikes. With traders pricing nearly four Fed hikes over 12 months, EUR/USD is testing the 1.1350–1.1353 support zone and trades below all major moving averages. GBP/USD trades below its 100- and 200-day averages near 1.3238, though about 85% odds of a BoE hike in November limit deeper losses.

Oil and Hormuz keep inflation fears alive as Treasury yields hold near 2007 highs

Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and floated a diesel export ban. Brent December gained 1.6% to $99.42 at 0659 GMT while the expiring November contract trades near $107, and Iran says Washington's final reply could come Tuesday. The US 10-year yield briefly pushed above 5.27% and markets price about a 70% chance of an October Fed hike, squeezing Gold (near $4,126), Silver and crypto.

Silver and crypto sell off as the Dollar firms

Silver fell more than 4% on Monday and remains below its 20-day EMA near $64.30, with TD seeing Fed hikes in October and January. Ethereum keeps making lower highs along a descending trendline near $2,700 after rejecting $2,800, while BNB compresses near $768 with futures open interest close to its 30-day high. Bitcoin slipped about 2% while Ethereum was little changed.

Trade Setups

All levels are conditional technical references for educational discussion only and do not constitute personal investment advice. Levels are indicative and may differ from your live feed.

EUR/USD — 1.1350 (-0.2%)

Stance: Sell rallies below 1.1386 — conditional bearish
Levels

Entry: Sell 1.1360–1.1385
Stop: 1.1412
Target: 1.1326 / 1.1315 / 1.1300

Thesis
The pair is testing the 1.1350–1.1353 support zone, level with the late-July low, and trades below all major moving averages. A sustained break opens the year-to-date low near 1.1325 and 1.1306, and Scotiabank sees firmer support around 1.1325–1.1350.
Exit if

Price reclaims 1.1386 and then 1.1410, easing pressure.
ECB speakers turn more hawkish on energy-driven inflation.
Close above 1.1412.

GBP/USD — 1.3238 (-0.14%)

Stance: Sell rallies below 1.3250 — conditional bearish
Levels

Entry: Sell 1.3240–1.3260
Stop: 1.3305
Target: 1.3205 / 1.3160 / 1.3110

Thesis
Cable trades below its 100- and 200-day averages. Support at 1.3205 has held so far while 1.3250 is the first hurdle, and about 85% odds of a BoE hike in November limit deeper losses.
Exit if

A close above 1.3300, where a 494m pound option expires, challenges the bearish tilt.
US yields and the Dollar ease.
Close above 1.3305.

Silver (XAG/USD) — $60.63 (~-5.7% vs Friday close)

Stance: Sell rallies below $62.50 — conditional bearish
Levels

Entry: Sell $60.80–$61.80
Stop: $62.55
Target: $60.00 / $58.50 / $56.57

Thesis
Silver fell more than 4% on Monday and remains below its 20-day EMA near $64.30, with the RSI near 38. Hawkish Fed bets keep pressure on non-yielding metals. The $60 level is the immediate cushion, then the 3 August low at $56.57.
Exit if

Fed hike expectations fade and yields retreat.
Price recovers toward the 20-day EMA near $64.30.
Close above $62.55.

Crude Oil (WTI) — $94.00 (+1.5%)

Stance: Buy dips above $93.00 — conditional bullish
Levels

Entry: Buy $93.60–$94.40
Stop: $92.60
Target: $95.50 / $97.00 / $98.50

Thesis
WTI is supported by the lack of progress in US-Iran talks and Trump's rejection of Iran's Hormuz proposal, though Middle East exports have recovered to about 12.8m bpd. A hold above $93 keeps $95.50 in view. Brent December is near $99.4 and expiring November near $107.
Exit if

A breakthrough headline from the Qatar-mediated talks reverses the move toward $91.
Hormuz shipping flows normalise.
Close below $92.60.

DAX 40 — ~25,460 (+0.3%)

Stance: Buy dips above 25,300 — conditional bullish
Levels

Entry: Buy 25,380–25,450
Stop: 25,250
Target: 25,550 / 25,650 / 25,800

Thesis
The index rebounds from Monday's 0.13% dip as tech leads on Anthropic IPO reports (TecDAX about +0.7%). Rising yields compress valuations, so gains are fragile. A hold above 25,300 keeps 25,550 and 25,650 in view.
Exit if

A loss of 25,250 signals renewed yield pressure.
Strong US data lifts Treasury yields further.
Close below 25,250.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) — $2,670 (-0.8%)

Stance: Sell rallies below $2,700 — conditional bearish
Levels

Entry: Sell $2,665–$2,700
Stop: $2,735
Target: $2,610 / $2,580 / $2,550

Thesis
ETH keeps making lower highs along a descending trendline near $2,700 after rejecting $2,800. A daily close below $2,610 would expose $2,550–$2,580, and rising Treasury yields remain a headwind for crypto.
Exit if

A breakout above $2,730 invalidates the channel and reopens $2,800.
Broad crypto sentiment improves.
Close above $2,735.

BNB (BNB/USD) — ~$768

Stance: Neutral — bullish above $776.66 (conditional)
Levels

Entry: Buy $777–$784
Stop: $758
Target: $785 / $807 / $869

Thesis
BNB is compressing near $768 with momentum stalled and futures open interest close to its 30-day high. A break above $776.66 targets $784.87 and then $807, the key resistance that has rejected price repeatedly.
Exit if

The $758–$766 support zone fails, putting the range low in play.
Support at $740 is lost.
Close below $758.

What to Watch — Rest of the Day and This Week

Time	Event	Note
07:00–08:00 GMT	European cash equity opens (DAX, STOXX 600)	Session
09:00 GMT	Eurozone Economic Sentiment and final Consumer Confidence (Sep)	Flash consumer confidence -16.5 vs -15.5 prev — weak data would keep EUR/USD pinned near 1.1350
Afternoon	ECB speakers including President Lagarde	A hawkish hint could support the euro, while a cautious tone points to 1.1326
Session	BoC Deputy Governor Gravelle speaks	No forecast; CAD extends losses
~13:00 GMT	US S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City HPI (Jul, YoY)	Forecast 2.20% vs prev 2.10%
~14:00 GMT	US JOLTS Job Openings (Aug)	Forecast 7.23M vs prev 7.271M — strong data lifts yields, hitting Silver, ETH and the DAX
~14:00 GMT	US CB Consumer Confidence (Sep)	Forecast 90.1 vs prev 89.4
Session	Fed speakers (Williams, Waller, Bowman, Barr)	No forecast; tone on further hikes
Ongoing	US-Iran talks via Qatar	A breakthrough could pull Brent back toward $100 and lift equities, while a stalemate keeps WTI above $93
Friday	Eurozone flash HICP and US non-farm payrolls	HICP about 3.6–3.7% expected vs 3.2% — will shape ECB and Fed hike bets

Analyst View — Rest of Session and Into the Week

Tuesday's European session is defined by a tech-led bounce, with the DAX near 25,460, that oil and 5.25%-plus US yields keep in check. EUR/USD tests 1.1350 and GBP/USD sits near 1.3238 under a firm Dollar, while Silver trades near $60.6, WTI near $94, Ethereum near $2,670 and BNB near $768.
The euro is the session's clearest technical test, since a sustained break under 1.1350 opens 1.1325 and 1.1306 unless Lagarde or other ECB speakers sound more hawkish. Silver and Ethereum carry the same yield-driven pressure, while WTI is supported as long as the Hormuz stalemate holds. DAX gains rest largely on chip stocks and can fade quickly if US data lifts yields further, and BNB stays range-bound until it breaks $776.66.
CSFX's highest-conviction session idea: favour selling EUR/USD rallies toward 1.1360–1.1385 while yields stay near multi-year highs, sell Silver rallies below $62.50, and size every position for headlines from the US-Iran talks, Lagarde and US data that can move markets sharply with little warning.

Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/chip-stocks-lift-europe-29-09-2026

CapitalStreet · Sep 29, 2026

30-Year Yield Hits a Two-Decade High Above 5.61% as Consumer Confidence Sinks and Silver Slips Below $61

US stocks slip in midday trade Tuesday as the long bond sells off again and tech gives back early gains. The 30-year Treasury yield touches 5.613%, a two-decade high, with the 10-year near 5.27%. The S&P 500 trades lower after Monday's 0.8% fall to 7,683.69, Nasdaq 100 futures hover near 30,500, WTI falls about 2% to $90.75 and Brent to about $103.6 as Saudi pipeline flows recover. Data at 14:00 GMT undershoots, with Conference Board confidence dropping to 81.9, the weakest since April 2014, and JOLTS openings falling to 7.079M vs 7.23M expected, yet markets still price as many as four Fed hikes over 12 months. Fed speakers, US-Iran talks, quarter-end flows and Friday's payrolls are the next inputs.

Market at a Glance

Instrument	Price	Change	Note
USD/CAD	1.4198	+0.1%	Daily 20-EMA 1.4016 — Dollar bid on Fed-hike bets — US import ban adds to CAD pressure
USD/CHF	0.8355	+0.3%	16-month high 0.8339 — Franc weakens as yields rise — SNB seen on hold at 0%
Silver	$60.85	-0.2%	Low $60.30 (since 5 August) — below the head-and-shoulders neckline as yields and the Dollar climb
Crude Oil (WTI)	$90.75	-2.0%	Mon settle $92.60 — Saudi pipeline flows recover while US-Iran talks stay stalled
Nasdaq 100	~30,500	-0.2%	Estimated from December futures — early tech bounce fades under record-high yields
US 30Y Treasury Yield	5.61%	+5bp	High 5.613%, Mon close 5.56% — highest in over two decades
Bitcoin	$83,111	+0.9%	Mon low ~$82,500 — ETF inflows meet yield pressure
Litecoin	~$68.60	-2.6%	7-day high $72.50 — consolidating after a ~30% weekly surge

What Is Driving the Session

The long bond sells off to a two-decade high

The 30-year yield touched 5.613% and has risen six straight sessions on oil-driven inflation fears and heavy corporate-debt supply, while the 10-year trades near 5.27% and the 2-year sits at 4.92%. The Fed raised rates 25bp in September and futures price up to four more hikes in 12 months, with roughly 70% odds for October. Outlets differ on whether the 30-year is at its highest since 2002 or 2004.

Consumer confidence and JOLTS undershoot, but inflation fears keep hike bets alive

The Conference Board index dropped 6.7 points to 81.9, the weakest since April 2014, and present business conditions turned negative for the first time since September 2024. JOLTS openings fell to 7.079M vs 7.23M expected, and S&P/Case-Shiller came in at +2.5% y/y. The soft data point to cooling demand, yet energy costs keep inflation fears alive, so traders now lean on Friday's payrolls to judge whether the Fed can keep tightening.

Oil slides as Saudi flows recover, but the US-Iran talks stay stuck

WTI reversed lower as Saudi flows through the East-West pipeline recovered to about 3.5m bpd and Hormuz flows reached roughly 77% of pre-war levels (Kpler). Qatari mediators held separate indirect talks with the US and Iran, but Trump signals a deal may wait until after the midterms and Iranian officials reportedly doubt a deal before November. That leaves oil headline-driven, with Brent near $103.6.

Tech gives back gains as AI headlines add event risk

The S&P 500 traded lower after Monday's 0.8% drop, and Carnival jumped about 11.7% on earnings while FICO fell about 21.6% and Oura delayed its IPO. Reuters reported details of a leaked Anthropic IPO prospectus (not yet filed) and the WSJ said OpenAI shelved a model over safety tests, while AI executives lunch with Trump at the White House. Nvidia announced a $150bn buyback and AMD agreed to buy World Labs for $8.2bn.

Trade Setups

All levels are conditional technical references for educational discussion only and do not constitute personal investment advice. Levels are indicative and may differ from your live feed.

USD/CAD — 1.4198 (+0.1%)

Stance: Buy dips above 1.4150 — conditional bullish
Levels

Entry: Buy 1.4150–1.4185
Stop: 1.4090
Target: 1.4235 / 1.4290 / 1.4350

Thesis
The pair trades well above its 20-day EMA with the DXY near 101.35 and markets pricing further Fed hikes. A US ban on about $1bn of Canadian imports took effect today and lower crude is a small CAD drag. A hold above 1.4150 keeps 1.4235 and 1.4290 in view.
Exit if

A slip under 1.4090 signals fading Dollar momentum.
Fed hike expectations ease.
Close below 1.4090.

USD/CHF — 0.8355 (+0.3%)

Stance: Buy dips above 0.8300 — conditional bullish
Levels

Entry: Buy 0.8300–0.8325
Stop: 0.8270
Target: 0.8340 / 0.8375 / 0.8400

Thesis
USD/CHF has rallied about 4% since late August and sits at 16-month highs despite a six-year-high KOF indicator (109.1). The Franc is a popular carry-funding currency with the SNB at 0%. A clean break of 0.8340 opens 0.8375 and 0.8400.
Exit if

RSI stretched conditions trigger a pullback to 0.8300 after today's weak US data.
The SNB shifts away from its 0% stance.
Close below 0.8270.

Silver (XAG/USD) — $60.85 (-0.2%)

Stance: Sell rallies below $62.20 — conditional bearish
Levels

Entry: Sell $61.20–$62.00
Stop: $62.50
Target: $60.30 / $59.40 / $58.00

Thesis
Silver fell about 5% on Monday and is heading for roughly an 8.5% loss in September after breaking a head-and-shoulders neckline near $62.20. It trades under its 50-, 100- and 200-day averages ($63.88, $65.65, $73.19). Oversold RSI invites short-covering bounces toward $61.80, which would be a fade area.
Exit if

Yields and the Dollar retreat, extending the short-covering bounce.
A break of $60.30 exposes $59.40 (target extension rather than exit).
Close above $62.50.

Crude Oil (WTI) — $90.75 (-2.0%)

Stance: Sell rallies below $92.60 — conditional bearish
Levels

Entry: Sell $91.50–$92.40
Stop: $93.60
Target: $90.00 / $88.50 / $86.50

Thesis
WTI reversed lower as Saudi flows recovered to about 3.5m bpd and Hormuz flows reached roughly 77% of pre-war levels. Trump has said a deal may come after the midterms, so downside is not one-way. Below $92.60 the bias is lower toward $90.00, and Brent trades near $103.6.
Exit if

An Iran headline spikes prices back above $93.
Talks break down and lift WTI above $93.60.
Close above $93.60.

Nasdaq 100 — ~30,500 (-0.2%)

Stance: Sell rallies below 30,640 — conditional bearish
Levels

Entry: Sell 30,540–30,640
Stop: 30,720
Target: 30,357 / 30,100 / 29,850

Thesis
The index gave back an early gain as the 30-year yield hit 5.61% and confidence data disappointed. Monday's futures range was 30,357–30,898 with value area 30,537–30,717. Below 30,640 sellers target Monday's low at 30,357 and then 30,100, and AI-safety headlines and the White House AI lunch add event risk.
Exit if

A move above 30,720 neutralises the bearish read.
Treasury yields reverse lower.
Close above 30,720.

US 30Y Treasury Yield — 5.61% (+5bp)

Stance: Buy yield above 5.56% — conditional bullish
Levels

Entry: Buy 5.56%–5.59%
Stop: 5.52%
Target: 5.61% / 5.65% / 5.70%

Thesis
The 30-year yield has risen six straight sessions on oil-driven inflation fears and heavy corporate-debt supply. Weak JOLTS and confidence only briefly slowed the sell-off. Holding above 5.56% keeps 5.61% and 5.65% in play, and higher yields mean lower bond prices.
Exit if

A close under 5.52% shows exhaustion.
Friday's payrolls weaken hike bets.
Close below 5.52%.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) — $83,111 (+0.9%)

Stance: Buy dips above $83,000 — conditional bullish
Levels

Entry: Buy $83,000–$84,200
Stop: $82,000
Target: $85,000 / $87,500 / $90,000

Thesis
Bitcoin bounced from Monday's $82,500 low and sits above the $82,800 double-bottom neckline noted by Fidelity's Timmer, with ETF inflows of $2.4bn last week. Rising yields and weak US data cap momentum. A hold above $83,000 targets $85,000 and $87,500.
Exit if

A daily close under $82,000 reopens the breakout failure.
The 30-year yield extends its two-decade high.
Close below $82,000.

Litecoin (LTC/USD) — ~$68.60 (-2.6%)

Stance: Neutral — bullish above $71.72 (conditional)
Levels

Entry: Buy $71.80–$72.50
Stop: $69.30
Target: $72.50 / $75.00 / $80.00

Thesis
LTC rolled over from $72.50 and trades under the $69.37 pivot with open interest up 9%. Bulls need to reclaim $71.72 to target $75–$80. Momentum has flattened and the upper Bollinger Band sits near $75.91, so size risk carefully.
Exit if

A failure to reclaim $71.72 risks mean-reversion to the $60–$62 breakout zone.
Broad crypto sentiment weakens further.
Close below $69.30.

What to Watch — Rest of the Day and This Week

Time	Event	Note
13:00 GMT	US S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City HPI (Jul)	Actual +2.5% y/y, +0.3% m/m
14:00 GMT	US JOLTS Job Openings (Aug)	Actual 7.079M vs 7.23M forecast, prev 7.335M (revised)
14:00 GMT	US CB Consumer Confidence (Sep)	Actual 81.9 vs ~89–90 forecast, prev 88.6 (revised)
Session	Remarks from six Fed officials	No forecast; tone on further hikes
Afternoon ET	Trump lunch with AI executives at the White House	AI regulation and safety headlines
Session	Qatar-mediated indirect US-Iran talks	Hormuz reopening — a breakthrough could push WTI toward $88.50, while a stalemate keeps $92–$93 as resistance
Ongoing	US 30-year Treasury yield	A close above 5.61% extends the two-decade high, while a reversal below 5.52% would ease the squeeze
Wed 30 September	Month- and quarter-end flows	Rebalancing can distort yields and equities
Friday	US non-farm payrolls; Eurozone flash CPI	Key for Fed and ECB hike bets

Analyst View — Rest of Session and Into the Week

Tuesday's US session is defined by a bond market pushing the 30-year yield to a two-decade high near 5.61% while consumer confidence and job openings weaken. USD/CAD sits near 1.4198 and USD/CHF near 0.8355 under a firm Dollar, while Silver trades near $60.85, WTI near $90.75, the Nasdaq 100 near 30,500, Bitcoin near $83,111 and Litecoin near $68.60.
The 30-year yield is the session's key variable, since a close above 5.61% would extend the squeeze and pressure the Nasdaq 100, Silver and crypto, while a reversal below 5.52% would ease it. WTI is headline-driven, with Saudi flows recovering but the US-Iran talks stuck, and AI headlines from the Anthropic IPO leak and the White House lunch could swing tech sentiment in Asia and Europe. Quarter-end rebalancing on 30 September can distort moves further.
CSFX's highest-conviction session idea: favour buying USD/CAD dips above 1.4150 and selling Silver and Nasdaq 100 rallies while yields hold near two-decade highs, and size every position for US-Iran headlines, quarter-end flows and Friday's payrolls that can move markets sharply with little warning.

Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/us-session-report-30-year-yield-29-september-2026

CapitalStreet · Oct 1, 2026

Yen Slides Past 158 and Aussie Hits Two-Month Low as Dollar Holds Firm, With Hong Kong Shut and Treasury Yields Near 2007 Highs

Asian markets trade mixed Thursday as a cooler US PCE print fails to spark broad buying and the dollar holds firm after a roughly 2% September gain. The Nikkei rises on Micron-driven chip strength from a 66,753.72 close, while the ASX 200 falls about 1.5% to near 8,654. USD/JPY pushes to 158.15 and AUD/USD slips to a two-month low near 0.6950, even after the RBA hiked to 4.60%. Hong Kong is closed for National Day and mainland China is shut until 8 October, leaving liquidity thin. The US 10-year yield sits near 5.28% after touching its highest since June 2007, Brent holds near $98 on stalled US-Iran talks, and CME FedWatch shows a 38% chance of an October Fed hike. Tokyo CPI, US ISM and Friday's payrolls are the next decisive inputs.

Market at a Glance

Instrument	Price	Change	Note
USD/JPY	158.15	+0.5%	Two-week high 158.21 — week low 156.35 — BOJ October hike odds under 20%, intervention risk near 160
AUD/USD	0.6950	-0.5%	Two-month low — RBA hiked to 4.60% — August trade surplus A$495M vs about A$2B expected
Copper	$6.60/lb	-0.2%	COMEX — touched about $6.68 last week — LME 3M near $14,450/t vs $14,875 record
Corn	$5.02/bu	+0.2%	501.6 c/bu — five-week low after USDA stocks data — harvest 18% complete
Hang Seng	24,613	+0.37%	Wednesday close (market shut today) — day range 24,332.64–24,637.65 — reopens Friday 2 October
Dogecoin	$0.0940	-0.1%	24h range $0.0929–$0.0979 — inside a narrow ascending channel
Litecoin	$67.34	-0.5%	7-day range $59.11–$74.88 — pausing under $70 after an eight-month high

What Is Driving the Session

The Nikkei leads on chips while the ASX sells off and China goes dark

Japan's Nikkei climbed 1–2% from its 66,753.72 close as Micron's strong FY27 guidance lifted chip names, while Australia's ASX 200 dropped about 1.5% to near 8,654 and the Kospi was flat to slightly lower. MSCI Asia ex-Japan eased 0.2%. Hong Kong is shut for National Day after the Hang Seng closed Wednesday at 24,613.27 (+0.37%), and mainland markets stay closed through 7 October, so Asian FX and metals face thin liquidity all week. South Korea's September exports rose 83.5% y/y against +62% expected, a record, but the headline did little to change the cautious tone.

The Yen slides and the Aussie sinks as the dollar holds near two-month highs

USD/JPY extended its bounce from the 156.35–156.40 area to 158.15, a two-week high, after the BOJ's summary of opinions showed some members wanting faster hikes while others pointed to weak domestic demand. Markets price under a 20% chance of an October move, and Q3 Tankan large manufacturers came in at 24 against 25 expected. Japanese officials keep warning on excessive depreciation, which makes 159.00–160.00 the zone where reversal risk sharpens. AUD/USD fell to a two-month low near 0.6950 despite the RBA's 25bp hike to 4.60%, as a much smaller August trade surplus (A$495M vs about A$2B expected) and a dollar index near 101.4–101.6 kept the pair under 0.7000 and below its 200-day average.

Yields near 2007 highs and Brent near $98 keep an inflation premium in markets

The US 10-year touched 5.306% and the 30-year 5.65%, its highest since 2002, before easing to about 5.62%, as bonds ended a brutal September. August core PCE cooled and July was revised lower, cutting CME FedWatch's October 28 hike odds to 38% from 50%, yet oil-driven inflation fears and heavy supply keep yields elevated. Brent trades near $97–98 after a 14% September surge, with WTI near $89.2, as the seven-month Middle East war and Hormuz supply risk keep stalled US-Iran talks at the center of the energy and rates story.

Metals, grains and crypto consolidate in thin holiday trade

LME three-month copper sits near $14,450/t, set for a third monthly gain, as China's official PMI rose to 50.1 and SHFE stocks hit their lowest since January 2024. COMEX copper holds near $6.60 per lb, though US tariff fade and the Golden Week lull limit upside. Corn slid to its lowest since early August after USDA's 30 September stocks report, with harvest 18% complete and 56% of the crop rated good-to-excellent. In crypto, Litecoin is down about 0.5% after a monthly rally of roughly 35–55% on rising ETF holdings and futures open interest, while Dogecoin has held $0.092 support through repeated tests this month and is up roughly 13% over 30 days.

Trade Setups

All levels are conditional technical references for educational discussion only and do not constitute personal investment advice. Tokyo CPI, US ISM and Friday's payrolls can reverse any of these positions sharply.

USD/JPY — 158.15 (+0.5%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish while above 157.00
Levels

Entry: Buy 157.00
Stop: 156.30
Target: 159.00

Thesis
USD/JPY extended its bounce from the 156.35–156.40 area, helped by 10-year Treasury yields near 5.3% and a split BOJ that leaves October hike odds under 20%. Japanese officials' intervention warnings are the main cap, so rallies toward 159.00–160.00 carry sharp reversal risk.
Exit if

Japanese authorities intervene near 159–160.
A hot Tokyo CPI revives BOJ hike bets and pulls the pair lower.
Close below 156.35.

AUD/USD — 0.6950 (-0.5%)

Stance: Sell rallies — bearish below 0.7000
Levels

Entry: Sell 0.7000
Stop: 0.7050
Target: 0.6900

Thesis
The Aussie broke below 0.7000 and its 200-day SMA this week, and the RBA's 25bp hike to 4.60% did not stop the slide. A narrower August trade surplus and a firm dollar index near 101.4 keep rallies capped near 0.7000, with 0.6900 the key support that opens 0.6850 on a daily close below.
Exit if

AUD/USD reclaims 0.7000 and holds.
US data softens and the dollar index rolls over.
Close above 0.7050.

Copper (HG) — $6.60/lb (-0.2%)

Stance: Buy dips — neutral-to-bullish above $6.50
Levels

Entry: Buy $6.52
Stop: $6.45
Target: $6.68

Thesis
COMEX copper consolidates below record territory in thin pre-holiday trade, with LME three-month near $14,450/t after a $14,875 record on 10 September. Tight Chinese stocks and a PMI at 50.1 support dips, but fading US tariff momentum and the Golden Week lull limit upside.
Exit if

A break below $6.52 signals the dip is not holding.
Hot US data lifts yields and the dollar further.
Close below $6.45.

Corn (ZC) — $5.02/bu (+0.2%)

Stance: Sell rallies — bearish below $5.12
Levels

Entry: Sell $5.12
Stop: $5.23
Target: $4.95

Thesis
Corn hit its lowest level since early August after broad grain selling and USDA's 30 September stocks report. Harvest is 18% complete and 56% of the crop is rated good-to-excellent. Failure to hold $4.95 would open $4.85.
Exit if

Corn recovers $5.12–$5.23 and repairs the damage.
Crop ratings or harvest pace shift sharply.
Close above $5.23.

Hang Seng (HK50) — 24,613 (+0.37%)

Stance: Buy dips — neutral, reopens Friday 2 October
Levels

Entry: Buy 24,330
Stop: 24,000
Target: 24,800

Thesis
Hong Kong recovered from a 24,332.64 early low to close Wednesday at 24,613.27, helped by Chinese PMI and policy pledges, though the index is still down about 3.7% over a month and nearly 10% on the year. Friday's reopen will price in two sessions of global moves, including the strong Nikkei. Levels apply only once trading resumes.
Exit if

The reopen gaps below 24,330.
Payrolls or Iran headlines trigger broad risk-off.
Close below 24,000.

Dogecoin (DOGE/USD) — $0.0940 (-0.1%)

Stance: Buy dips — neutral
Levels

Entry: Buy $0.0931
Stop: $0.0905
Target: $0.0967

Thesis
DOGE sits inside a narrow ascending channel and has held $0.092 support through repeated tests this month, up roughly 13% over 30 days. A close above $0.095 opens $0.0967 and then $0.10, and the DogeOS testnet launch is a supportive headline.
Exit if

DOGE loses $0.0918, putting $0.0905 and the $0.088 area at risk.
Broad crypto sentiment weakens on hot US data.
Close below $0.0905.

Litecoin (LTC/USD) — $67.34 (-0.5%)

Stance: Buy dips — bullish while above $65
Levels

Entry: Buy $65.00
Stop: $62.00
Target: $74.88

Thesis
LTC rallied toward its $74.88 eight-month high as ETF holdings and futures open interest rose, then cooled below $70. Holding $65 keeps the uptrend intact, and a push through $70 targets $74.88 and the $75 barrier.
Exit if

LTC breaks below $62, suggesting the rally has run its course.
ETF inflows and futures open interest fade.
Close below $62.00.

What to Watch — Rest of the Day and This Week

Time	Event	Note
23:30 GMT	Japan Tokyo CPI (Sep)	Prior 1.9% y/y — a soft print weakens the case for a 30 October BOJ hike and could lift USD/JPY toward 159
Later Today (US)	US ISM Manufacturing; Fed speakers	Tests the 38% October hike pricing and the 5.3% 10-year yield — hot data would pressure the Aussie, copper and crypto
Friday	US Non-farm Payrolls (Sep)	Key risk for the dollar, yields and USD/JPY — decides October hike pricing
Friday	Hang Seng reopens	First session after National Day — prices in two sessions of global moves
Overnight (Released)	BOJ Summary of Opinions; Tankan; AU Trade Balance	Mixed BOJ views, Tankan 24 vs 25 expected, trade surplus A$495M vs about A$2B expected
Overnight (Released)	Korea Exports (Sep)	+83.5% y/y vs +62% expected, a record
Ongoing	Iran and Hormuz headlines	Stalled talks keep Brent near $98 — a breakthrough drops oil and yields, a breakdown extends the dollar rally
Ongoing	China holiday	Mainland closed 1–7 October — thin liquidity across copper, the yuan and Asian equities

Analyst View — Rest of Session and Into the Weekend

Thursday's Asian session opens the new quarter with a firm dollar, elevated yields and Brent near $98. A cooler August core PCE print trimmed October hike odds to 38%, but 10-year yields near 5.3% show that oil-driven inflation fears and heavy supply still dominate. That tension explains why the dollar index held near 101.4–101.6 and why risk appetite stayed selective, with the Nikkei lifted by chips while the ASX fell about 1.5%.
The Yen's slide past 158 and the Aussie's drop to a two-month low are two sides of the same dollar trade. USD/JPY benefits from a split BOJ and US yields, but intervention warnings make 159.00–160.00 a high-risk zone for chasing rallies. AUD/USD is the clearest example of dollar strength overriding domestic support, as even an RBA hike to 4.60% could not offset a weak trade print. Copper, corn, Dogecoin and Litecoin are consolidating in thin holiday liquidity, so breaks of $6.52 and $6.68 in copper, $4.95 and $5.12 in corn, $0.0931 and $0.0950 in Dogecoin, and $65 and $70 in Litecoin will likely set the next direction.
CSFX's highest-conviction session idea: favour dips in USD/JPY toward 157.00 while US yields stay near 5.3%, but stay alert for intervention risk as the pair approaches 159.00–160.00; fade AUD/USD rallies toward 0.7000 while the dollar index holds above 101; and size every commodity and crypto position for thin China-holiday liquidity and fast-moving Tokyo CPI, ISM, payroll and Iran headlines. Friday's US payrolls are the single decisive variable for the dollar, yields and the October hike debate.
Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/yen-slides-past-158-and-aussie-hits-two-month-low-as-dollar-holds-firm-1-oct

Capital Street FX — Market Research & Analysis

Trader

Fed's First Hike Since 2023 Fuels a Tech-Led Wall Street Rebound as Oil Slips Toward $100 and Treasuries Rally​

​

Market at a Glance​

What Is Driving the Session​

The Fed hikes for the first time since 2023 and signals more to come​

Wall Street rebounds as AI and chip stocks lead a post-Fed bounce​

Mixed US data reinforces the hawkish backdrop​

Oil slides on Saudi rerouting, while Treasuries rally and gold rebounds​

Crypto stabilises after the CLARITY Act setback​

Trade Setups​

USD/CAD — 1.3995 (+0.04%)​

USD/CHF — 0.8247 (-0.10%)​

Gold (XAU/USD) — $4,366.89 (+2.40%)​

Crude Oil (WTI) — $100.90 (-1.11%)​

Nasdaq 100 — 29,423.78 (+1.65%)​

US 20Y Yield — 5.330% (-6.9bp)​

BTC/USD — $76,668 (+0.69%)​

XRP/USD — $1.306 (+0.59%)​

What to Watch — Rest of the Day​

Analyst View — Rest of the US Session​

Trader

Xi Heads to Washington, Yen Sits on Intervention Watch and RBA Hike Looms as Asia Braces for a Holiday-Thinned Week​

​

Market at a Glance​

What Is Driving the Week​

The Xi–Trump summit is the marquee event for China-linked assets​

The yen faces intervention risk while Tokyo is closed for three days​

A hawkish Fed meets the run-up to the RBA's 29 September decision​

Crypto trades the aftermath of the CLARITY Act's failed Senate vote​

Trade Setups​

USD/JPY — 156.80​

AUD/USD — 0.7120​

Copper — $6.63/lb​

Hang Seng — 24,750​

Litecoin (LTC/USD) — $55.00​

XRP (XRP/USD) — $1.33​

What to Watch — This Week​

Analyst View — The Week Ahead​

Trader

USD/JPY Capped Below 157 With Japan Shut, KOSPI Reclaims 7,000 and Brent Slips 2% Ahead of Trump–Xi Summit​

​

Market at a Glance​

What Is Driving the Session​

USD/JPY is capped below 157 as intervention risk meets a thin holiday market​

KOSPI reclaims 7,000 and is Asia's cleanest risk-on signal​

Oil slips, gold is rejected at $4,400 and grains bounce​

Crypto extends its rebound as regulation fears fade​

Trade Setups​

USD/JPY — 156.96 (+0.05%)​

AUD/JPY — 111.82 (≈ flat)​

Copper — $6.727/lb (+0.11%)​

Corn — ≈534¢/bu (+1.3%)​

KOSPI — 6,982.92 (+1.29%)​

Dogecoin (DOGE/USD) — $0.0885 (+3.10%)​

Litecoin (LTC/USD) — ≈$58.90 (+1.2% 24h)​

What to Watch — Rest of the Day and This Week​

Analyst View — Handover Into Europe and the US​

Trader

EUR/USD Sags Near Seven-Week Low, Crude Slides Over 2% and FTSE 100 Futures Firm as Europe Digests Post-Fed Dollar Strength​

​

Market at a Glance​

What Is Driving the Session​

EUR/USD is pinned near a seven-week low as post-Fed dollar strength holds​

Oil eases despite Hormuz risk and silver pulls back with gold​

FTSE 100 futures point higher after Friday's Hormuz-driven drop​

Crypto: Bitcoin's squeeze lifts Ether while XRP lags​

Trade Setups​

EUR/USD — 1.1475 (-0.10%)​

GBP/CHF — 1.1009 (-0.03%)​

Silver — $66.41/oz (-1.10%)​

Crude Oil (WTI) — $94.05/bbl (-2.11%)​

FTSE 100 — 10,659.13 (-1.45% Friday close)​

ETH/USD — $2,623.37 (+0.41%)​

XRP/USD — $1.4014 (-0.76%)​

What to Watch — Today and Tuesday​

Analyst View — Rest of the European Session and Into the US Afternoon​

Trader

Nasdaq Surges 2% on Chip Rally as Oil and Yields Slide and Bitcoin Reclaims $85,000​

Fed's First Hike Since 2023 Fuels a Tech-Led Wall Street Rebound as Oil Slips Toward $100 and Treasuries Rally

Market at a Glance

What Is Driving the Session

The Fed hikes for the first time since 2023 and signals more to come

Wall Street rebounds as AI and chip stocks lead a post-Fed bounce

Mixed US data reinforces the hawkish backdrop

Oil slides on Saudi rerouting, while Treasuries rally and gold rebounds

Crypto stabilises after the CLARITY Act setback

Trade Setups

USD/CAD — 1.3995 (+0.04%)

USD/CHF — 0.8247 (-0.10%)

Gold (XAU/USD) — $4,366.89 (+2.40%)

Crude Oil (WTI) — $100.90 (-1.11%)

Nasdaq 100 — 29,423.78 (+1.65%)

US 20Y Yield — 5.330% (-6.9bp)

BTC/USD — $76,668 (+0.69%)

XRP/USD — $1.306 (+0.59%)

What to Watch — Rest of the Day

Analyst View — Rest of the US Session

Xi Heads to Washington, Yen Sits on Intervention Watch and RBA Hike Looms as Asia Braces for a Holiday-Thinned Week

Market at a Glance

What Is Driving the Week

The Xi–Trump summit is the marquee event for China-linked assets

The yen faces intervention risk while Tokyo is closed for three days

A hawkish Fed meets the run-up to the RBA's 29 September decision

Crypto trades the aftermath of the CLARITY Act's failed Senate vote

Trade Setups

USD/JPY — 156.80

AUD/USD — 0.7120

Copper — $6.63/lb

Hang Seng — 24,750

Litecoin (LTC/USD) — $55.00

XRP (XRP/USD) — $1.33

What to Watch — This Week

Analyst View — The Week Ahead

USD/JPY Capped Below 157 With Japan Shut, KOSPI Reclaims 7,000 and Brent Slips 2% Ahead of Trump–Xi Summit

Market at a Glance

What Is Driving the Session

USD/JPY is capped below 157 as intervention risk meets a thin holiday market

KOSPI reclaims 7,000 and is Asia's cleanest risk-on signal

Oil slips, gold is rejected at $4,400 and grains bounce

Crypto extends its rebound as regulation fears fade

Trade Setups

USD/JPY — 156.96 (+0.05%)

AUD/JPY — 111.82 (≈ flat)

Copper — $6.727/lb (+0.11%)

Corn — ≈534¢/bu (+1.3%)

KOSPI — 6,982.92 (+1.29%)

Dogecoin (DOGE/USD) — $0.0885 (+3.10%)

Litecoin (LTC/USD) — ≈$58.90 (+1.2% 24h)

What to Watch — Rest of the Day and This Week

Analyst View — Handover Into Europe and the US

EUR/USD Sags Near Seven-Week Low, Crude Slides Over 2% and FTSE 100 Futures Firm as Europe Digests Post-Fed Dollar Strength

Market at a Glance

What Is Driving the Session

EUR/USD is pinned near a seven-week low as post-Fed dollar strength holds

Oil eases despite Hormuz risk and silver pulls back with gold

FTSE 100 futures point higher after Friday's Hormuz-driven drop

Crypto: Bitcoin's squeeze lifts Ether while XRP lags

Trade Setups

EUR/USD — 1.1475 (-0.10%)

GBP/CHF — 1.1009 (-0.03%)

Silver — $66.41/oz (-1.10%)

Crude Oil (WTI) — $94.05/bbl (-2.11%)

FTSE 100 — 10,659.13 (-1.45% Friday close)

ETH/USD — $2,623.37 (+0.41%)

XRP/USD — $1.4014 (-0.76%)

What to Watch — Today and Tuesday

Analyst View — Rest of the European Session and Into the US Afternoon

Nasdaq Surges 2% on Chip Rally as Oil and Yields Slide and Bitcoin Reclaims $85,000

Market at a Glance

What Is Driving the Session

Chips lead a broad rebound as oil and yields fall

Oil slides on diplomacy hopes and a Saudi supply recovery

The Fed keeps the dollar bid while yields ease from the 5% line

Bitcoin's short squeeze pulls Litecoin sharply higher

Trade Setups

USD/CAD — 1.4005 (+0.16%)

USD/CHF — 0.8212 (-0.11%)

Gold — $4,392.30/oz (-0.74%)