AceTraderFx: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 26: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
26 May 2016 04:02GMT

EUR/USD - ..... Despite yesterday's intra-day marginal breach of Tuesday's 1.1133 low to a fresh 2-month trough at 1.1129 in New York morning, traders quickly took profit due to lack of follow-through selling n lifted euro back up to 1.1167 in New York afternoon.
Price later met renewed buying at 1.1146 at New York close and euro climbed to 1.1178 shortly after Asian open as intra-day selloff in dlr/yen led to broad-based usd's weakness, euro tested 1.1180 before easing.

Intra-day rebound strongly suggests euro's recent decline has made a temp. bottom yesterday at 1.1129 and initial stops above 1.1180 are now in focus, more buy stops are touted above 1.1200/05, however, some offers are noted at 1.1235/45.
Therefore, even 1.1180 res is taken out, would be wise to buy euro on subsequent retreat.

Bids have been raised to 1.1160-55 and more below with some stops below 1.1125, however, there is market chatter of fairly good buying interest above 1.1100.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 27: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views - USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
27 May 2016 1:08GMT

USD/JPY - ......Japanese media reported ahead of Tokyo morning the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is considering to delay a sales tax hike, originally planned in April 2017, by around two years. And Abe would likely announce the delay as early as June 1, when the current parliament session closes.

The decision would come in the wake of a Group of Seven (G7) summit, Abe is hosting in western Japan, where he told the leaders the global economy may be on the verge of a financial crisis on the scale of the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.
The postponement by two years would still allow Japan to meet its target of turning the country's budget deficit into a surplus by fiscal 2020, the Yomiuri newspaper said.
Abe has pledged to raise Japan's sales tax to 10 percent from 8 percent in April next year, however, with Japan skirting recession and inflation still anemic, many of his aides have proposed postponing the tax hike to ensure Japan makes a sustained exit from deflation.

The media reported that Abe will shortly convey his idea to Finance Minister Taro Aso and the head of his ruling Liberal Democratic Party's coalition partner.
The Asahi also reported that Abe would forgo calling a snap election of the lower house of parliament, instead focusing on an upper house election already scheduled in July.
There had been some speculation that Abe would call a lower house election to coincide with the upper house election.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 30: Market Review on USD/JPY

30 May 2016 1:08GMT

USD/JPY - .... Dollar climbed to a 1-month high of 110.86 ahead of Tokyo open following weekend news of a delay in a sales tax hike. Yesterday it was reported that Japanese PM Shinzo Abe plans to delay an increase in sales tax by two and a half years as the economy sputters and Abe prepares for a national election.

The prime minister, who has promised to announce steps on Tuesday to spur economic growth and promote structural reform, is also expected to order an extra budget to fund stimulus measures, just two months into the fiscal year and on the heels of a supplementary budget to pay for recovery from recent earthquakes in southern Japan.

After chairing a summit of G7 leaders on Friday, Abe said Japan would mobilise "all policy tools" - including the possibility of delaying the tax hike - to avoid what he called an economic crisis on the scale of the global financial crisis that followed the 2008 Lehman Brothers bankruptcy.
Abe has long said he would proceed with a plan to raise the tax rate to 10 percent from 8 percent next April unless Japan faced a crisis on the magnitude of the Lehman shock.
He said the G7 "shares a strong sense of crisis" about the global outlook, with the most worrisome risk being a global contraction led by a slowdown in emerging economies like China.

But other G7 leaders, however, appeared to differ with Abe on the risk of a global crisis, fuelling comment that Abe was using the G7 to justify delaying the painful tax hike.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 31: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
31 May 2016 01:23GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Although the greenback rose to session high at 111.45 in early European morning, price retreated to 111.03 and continued to trade in a narrow range in holiday-thinned conditions as UK and US markets were closed.
Dlr briefly dropped to 110.80 at Tokyo open after Japan reported better-than-expected industrial production data before rebounding in Tokyo morning.

Factory output rose 0.3 percent in April from the previous month, against a median market forecast for a 1.5 percent drop, data by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed on Tuesday. It followed a 3.8 percent rise in March.

Pay attention to the release of U.S. consumer confidence data at 14:00GMT. Street forecast is for a rise to 96.0 fm prev. reading of 94.2.

Bids are now seen at 110.90/00 and more below at 110.70/80 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 111.60/70, suggesting buying on dips for a resumption of recent uptrend is favored.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 1: Delay on the scheduled sales tax by another 30 months is expected to be announced by Japan PM

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
01 Jun 2016 01:06GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is expected later today to announce delaying the scheduled sales tax hike by two-and-a-half years, but will likely bow to pressure from his coalition partner not to call a snap general election.
The tax delay, which had been widely expected, will be welcomed by voters, who will cast ballots in an upper house election in July. But it is fanning doubts about Abe's plans to curb Japan's huge public debt and fund ballooning social welfare costs of a fast-ageing population.

It would be the second time that Abe has delayed the increase in the sales tax to 10 percent from 8 percent, after a rise from 5 percent in April 2014 which tipped the economy back into recession.
Abe took office in December 2012 pledging to beat deflation and reboot the moribund economy with his "Abenomics" revival recipe, but has made little headway amid stubbornly weak domestic and export demand.

Abe's term as ruling Liberal Democratic Party president and premier, ends in September 2018 and unless the LDP changes its rules, has repeatedly said he would implement the tax rise as planned unless the economy faced a shock from a financial crisis or natural disaster.
But he laid the groundwork for a delay at last week's Group of Seven summit, insisting his G7 partners shared a "strong sense of crisis" about the global economic outlook and drawing parallels to the 2008 world financial crisis that followed the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers.

Government officials have said Abe has not abandoned a pledge to bring the country's primary budget balance into the black by the fiscal year from April 2020 to rein in public debt which is already more than double annual economic output.
But that target had already looked elusive, even with the government's rosy forecast of real economic growth of 2 percent on average in coming years.
Abe will also need to explain to voters how he plans to make up for the funding gap from the tax hike delay to October 2019, and keep pledges to beef up support for the elderly.

Speculation had simmered that Abe would call an election for parliament's powerful lower house as he did in 2014 after announcing the first tax hike delay, aiming to lock in his ruling bloc's two thirds "super majority" in the lower house and win a similar grip on the upper chamber, while there is no lower house poll need be held until 2018.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 2: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
02 Jun 2016 09:32GMT

GBP/USD - ...... Reuters reported British construction orders fell last month for the first time in more than three years, as concern about a June 23 referendum on whether Britain should remain a member of the European Union prompted companies to put off new projects, industry figures showed on Thursday.

Financial data company Markit said its monthly survey of construction purchasing managers showed the weakest overall growth in activity growth since June 2013, with its headline construction PMI dropping to 51.2 from April's 52.0.
Economists in a Reuters poll had expected the index to hold steady at 52.0 in May.
The new orders component fell especially sharply, dropping to 48.1 from 50.1, its first time since April 2013 below the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction and the lowest index reading since March 2013.

Last month, the Bank of England said commercial property transactions had ground to a halt in the run-up to June's EU vote. Official figures for the first quarter of 2016 showed the first year-on year drop in business investment in three years, led by weaker spending on offices and non residential buildings.

Markit said civil engineering projects showed the least activity, followed by housebuilding and commercial work.
However, companies stepped up hiring, increasing staff numbers at the fastest rate since January, and Moore said there was the biggest divergence between orders and staffing trends since the survey began in 1997.

Construction makes up 6 percent of Britain's economy, though it accounts for a disproportionate amount of volatility in official gross domestic product data.
Tuesday's manufacturing PMI showed an unexpected return to modest growth. Friday's private-sector services PMI will give stronger direction on second-quarter growth.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 6: Latest poll on Brexit is 4% ahead by YouGov poll

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
06 Jun 2016 00:07GMT

GBP/USD - ....... YouGov Brexit poll for ITV puts 'remain' at 41 pct, 'leave' at 45 pct.
Reuters then reported support for Britain to leave the European Union stood 4 points ahead of support for remaining in the 28-member bloc, according to a YouGov poll for ITV, Bloomberg reported on Monday.

The poll was based on a Wednesday-Friday survey of 3,405 people.
Britons vote on June 23 on whether to remain in the EU.

The campaign to get Britain out of the European Union has a 2-point lead over the "Remain" campaign, polling firm TNS citing a poll conducted in the third week of May.
Forty-three percent of respondents wanted Britain out of the EU, while 41 percent wanted it to stay, according to the online poll of 1,213 Britons. The difference was within the poll's margin of error. Sixteen percent of respondents were undecided.

The TNS poll was carried out between May 19-23, a month before the EU referendum date.

Britons will vote in just over 2 weeks time on June 23 on whether to remain in the 28-member bloc, with important implications for its trade, economic and political status.
The campaign to stop Britain voting to leave the EU has seen its lead shrink recently, with polls in the past week showing gains for "Leave".
Sterling fell sharply last Tuesday when both an online and a telephone poll for ICM showed a 3-percentage-point lead for the "Leave" campaign.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 7: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
07 Jun 2016 01:28

USD/JPY - ..... The greenback staged a short-covering rally from yesterday's Australia low at 106.35 to 107.28 in early European morning, then 107.56 at New York midday after Yellen's comments.
However, dlr briefly retreated to 106.84 in New York afternoon before rising again to 107.66 near New York closing. Price came under renewed selling pressure ahead of Tokyo open and fell again to 107.22 at Tokyo open as Yellen's comments yesterday failed to provide support to the buck.

As there are is no major eco. data due today, traders are likely to use the combination of Yellen's comments together with Friday's jobs report to trade the market.

Offers are now seen at 107.50/60 and more above at 107.80/90 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 106.80/90, suggesting choppy trading with downside bias would be seen initially.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 8: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
08 Jun 2016 01:28

USD/JPY - ....... Although the greenback found renewed buying at 107.50 in Europe yesterday n rose marginally above Asian high at 107.89 to 107.90, price pared its gains and tumbled to 107.15 in New York morning on yen's broad-based strength.
Dlr met renewed selling at 107.45 in New York afternoon and fell sharply at Tokyo open, hitting a low at 106.85 in Tokyo morning on yen strength as Japan's GDP data was revised upwards.

As there is no major eco. data due from U.S. today, range trading is likely to be seen with offers noted seen at 107.20/30 and more above at 107.40/50 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 106.20/30.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 7: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
08 Jun 2016 09:20GMT

GBP/USD - ..... Cable briefly jumped to intra-day high of 1.4580 after upbeat U.K. data. Reuters reported Sterling jumped to Wednesday's high after data showed industrial output in Britain grew at its fastest pace in nearly four years in April, beating forecasts and wrong-footing investors who had positioned for a weak number.

Industrial output rose 2.0 percent in April after a 0.3 percent rise in March, the biggest month-on-month increase since July 2012, the Office for National Statistics said. Economists polled by Reuters had expected it to stagnate on the month.

Manufacturing output also rose at its fastest pace since July 2012, up 2.3 percent on the month after a 0.1 percent increase in March.

Sterling, which hit a three-week low against a basket of currencies on Monday, has been hostage to opinion polls before a British referendum on whether the country stays in the European Union or not. The vote is due on June 23 and polls suggest it is a close race between "Remain" and "Leave".

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 10: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
10 Jun 2016 04:08

USD/JPY - ..... In total stark contrast to yesterday's weakness in Asia n European session, dlr maintains a firm undertone in Tokyo morning trading after a brief pullback fm o/n New York high of 107.17 to 106.91.

Renewed buying emerged at Asian open at 106.91 and pushed price to 107.26 after tripping some stops above said New York high, suggesting consolidation with upside bias is in store.
Bids have been raised to 107.00-106.90 and more below with stops touted below 106.50.
Offers are noted at 107.40/50 area, so further strong gain is unlikely to be repeated today as yesterday's usd's broad-based rally which started in Europe and then New York session is seen as short-covering in the greenback following last Friday's dlr selloff in the wake of disappointing U.S. payrolls report.

U.S. economic calendar is very light today but do pay attention to U.S. consumer confidence for June due out at 14:00GMT, street forecast is looking for the index to be 94.0 vs previous reading of 94.7, a higher number will give dlr a bit of a lift.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 13: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Jun 2016 02:28

USD/JPY - ....... Despite a brief gain to 107.01 at New Zealand open, price retreated ahead of Asian open and fell to 106.38 as intra-day decline in Nikkei triggered broad-based buying in yen (N225 index is currently down 2.65% to 16163).

As investors are cautious ahead of this week's central bank meetings as well as Britain's June 23 referendum on whether to remain in the European Union, and are no economic data from U.S. today, suggesting choppy trading with downside bias would be seen but May's 18-month trough at 105.55 should remain intact.

At present, offers are noted at 106.80-90 n more at 107.00-10 with stops above 107.30, whilst bids are reported at 106.30-20 and then 106.10-00 with stops below there.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 14: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
14 Jun 2016 04:22GMT

GBP/USD - ...... Cable erased yesterday's gain in New York after price rebounded from a near 2-month European low of 1.4116 to 1.4330 in New York.
Traders reacted by buying sterling in New York morning when certain newswire erroneously reported the 'Remain' camp was 6 points ahead and that resulted in a fierce short-covering rally, price briefly fell back to 1.4201 after latest poll results showed the 'Leave ' camp was ahead, traders were in no mood of selling the pound after intra-day wild swings.

Latest polls results on Reuters as follow :
"Leave" on 46 pct, "Remain" 39 pct -YouGov poll; "Leave" on 49 pct, "Remain" 48 pct -ORB poll; "Out" on 53 pct, "In" 47 pct -ICM polls and Sun says UK must set itself free from "dictatorial Brussels".

Offers and bids...forget about them for the time being.

Pay attention to a slew of U.K. inflation data at 08:30GMT, however, market reaction from these data will only be very temporary.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 15: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views- USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
15 Jun 2016 02:15GMT

USD/JPY - ....... Despite dlr's fall below Monday's low at 105.74 to 105.63 in Europe yesterday, buying interest above May's 18-month trough at 105.55 lifted price and price later recovered to 106.18 in New York afternoon, then 106.21 at Asian open on Wednesday.

Today's market focus will be on the FOMC rate decision and FOMC economic projections at 18:00GMT, then the monetary policy statement and speech from Fed's chair Yellen at 18:30GMT.
Having said that, investors should also pay attention to the release of U.S. eco. data in New York morning, these include New York Fed Manufacturing, PPI, and Industrial Output M/M May.

The 'wait and see' mode ahead of the FOMC monetary policy decision suggests choppy sideways trading would be seen in Asian and European sessions, therefore, as long as above mentioned 105.55 low holds, buying dlr on dips is recommended.

At present, bids are reported at 105.90-80 and then 105.70-60 with stops below 105.50, whilst on the upside, offers are noted at 106.20-30 and more at 106.40-50 with stops above there.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 16: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/CAD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
16 Jun 2016 00:02GMT

USD/CAD - ....... Reuters then reported Canadian growth is likely to be flat or slightly negative in the second quarter due to the impact of the Alberta wildfires before an outsized recovery takes hold in the third quarter, remarks by the Bank of Canada.

In a speech that served as an update to the central bank's most recent forecast in April, Governor Stephen Poloz said that on the whole, the economy was making progress as it adjusted to low oil prices.

Poloz said that with the growth is expected to be "very choppy", the second and third quarters could still see an average growth rate close to the April outlook.
In his prepared remarks he said that continued patience is required, but they have the right to be optimistic. His message is that the process has been uneven, and probably will remain so, but they are making real progress now. He continued to say that nonetheless, the slumping investment spending plans in the energy sector and the possibility that households will suddenly curb their spending amid high debt levels present risks to the outlook.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 17: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
17 Jun 2016 01:52GMT

USD/JPY - ......The dollar fell to around a two-year low against the yen overnight after the BOJ held back from expanding stimulus as worries mounted over Britain's referendum next week on whether or not to stay in the European Union.
In Japan the MOF has jurisdiction over currency policy and intervention. The BOJ conducts intervention at the instruction from the ministry.

Japan has stayed out from the market since it last intervened in November 2011.
Japan's FinMin Taro Aso declined to comment when asked if the MOF and FSA have any contingency plans to avoid financial market turmoil in case of Brexit.

Reuters reported Aso on Friday fired off a warning shot against a recent rise in the yen, saying he was deeply concerned about "one-sided, rapid and speculative" currency moves and would respond urgently if necessary - a hint at possible yen-selling market intervention.
The latest jawboning - official comment intended to influence markets - comes as the yen hit multi-year highs versus the dollar and euro after the Bank of Japan stood pat on Thursday, despite market fears of global turmoil rout if Britain votes to leave the European Union in the June 23 referendum.

Officials from the Ministry of Finance (MOF), the Bank of Japan and the Financial Services Agency (FSA) would meet later today to discuss financial markets according to Aso.
While the government said the change in assessment was not a downgrade, it could fan more concerns that the BOJ will have difficulty reaching its 2 percent price target by March 2018.
Even as the BOJ stood pat, there were expectations that the central bank will ease further at its next meeting in July, when it issues fresh quarterly growth and inflation forecasts.

Some economists predict the central bank could take a three-pronged approach in July: increasing its already massive government bond purchases, buying more riskier assets and cutting rates further into negative territory.
Economists also worry that a firming yen, which makes imports cheaper, will further dampen inflation.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 20: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
20 Jun 2016 03:39GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Dlr rebounded from 104.30 (Reuters) at New Zealand open and then climbed above Friday's high of 108.83 to 108.85 in Tokyo morning due to broad-based weakness in yen on reduced safe-haven demand as investors squarely focused on this week's Brexit vote n upbeat poll data for the "Remain" campaign.

Earlier, official data from Japan showed the country's trade balance fell to a seasonally adjusted 0.27 trillion yen in May, from 0.43 trillion yen in the preceding month. Separately, data showed that Japan's exports fell at the fastest pace in 4 months in May on supply chain disruptions from the ***amoto earthquake and slow growth in emerging markets.

At the moment, offers are noted at 104.90-00 n more at 105.10-20 with stops above there, whilst bids are reported at 104.60-50 and then 104.40-30 with stops below 104.20.

Ministry of Finance data showed today that Japan's exports fell 11.3 percent in May from a year earlier, as a strong yen and lacklustre growth in emerging markets curb demand for Japanese goods.
The fall was more than a 10.4 percent decrease expected by economists in a Reuters poll. It followed a 10.1 percent year-on-year decline in April.
While Imports fell 13.8 percent, matching the median estimate.
The trade balance came to a deficit of 40.7 billion yen ($389.10 million), versus the median estimate for a 40.0 billion yen surplus.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 21: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
21 Jun 2016 01:09GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Dlr was under pressure in New York session due to broad-based rebound in yen vs other major currencies and briefly fell to 103.78 at Asian open following the release of latest BoJ minutes (see our previous MMN) before staging a recovery.

Although near term dlr's weakness suggests consolidation with downside bias would be seen in Asia and Europe, sharp fall below last Thursday's 22-month trough at 103.50 is not likely as investors are reluctant to enter large position ahead of the speech from Fed's chair Janet Yellen at 14:00GMT and 20:30GMT.

At the moment, offers are reported at 104.00-10 and more at 104.20-30 with stops above there, whilst bids are noted at 103.50-40 with mixture of bids and stops in the region of 103.20-103.00.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 22: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
22 Jun 2016 02:09GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Although dlr ratcheted higher to 105.05 in New York following comments by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, price retreated to 104.62 ahead of Asian opening on Wednesday and then lower to 104.43 in Tokyo morning due to broad-based buying in yen on risk aversion.

Today's focus for the greenback will be on another speech from Fed's Chair Yellen at 14:00GMT, other than that, investors should also pay attention to the release of U.S.'s Monthly Home Price and Existing Homes Sales in New York morning.

At present, offers are reported at 104.70-80 and then 104.90-00 with stops above there.
On the downside, bids are noted at 104.30-20 and more at 104.10-00 with stops below 103.90.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 23: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
23 Jun 2016 04:03GMT

GBP/USD - ...... The British pound surged from 1.4700 to a fresh 5-month peak at 1.4847 ahead of Asian open today after the latest poll showing 'Remain' is taking the lead.
Later, profit-taking knocked price down to 1.4772 b4 edging higher again in Tokyo morning.

Although intra-day firmness in Asia suggests consolidation with upside bias would be seen, as investors are still awaiting a British vote on whether or not to remain in the European Union, sharp gain is not likely and price should falter below 1.4900.
Having said that, investors should also take note to the release of CBI Distributive Trades at 10:00GMT.

At present, bids are reported at 1.4780-70 and more at 1.4760-50 with mixture of bids and stops in the region of 1.4730-10.
On the upside, offers are noted at 1.4830-40 and more at 1.4850-60 with stops above 1.4880.