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Technical analysis on EU,GU and majors

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by bhanu545, Nov 5, 2010.

  1. bhanu545

    bhanu545 Master Trader

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    AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, November 5, 2010

    AUD/USD is developing wave 5 of the midterm uptrend - colored red in the chart. Within this wave there's a set of 4 waves with wave 4 being corrective - colored yellow in the chart.

    The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9893-1.0175.

    Supports:

    - 1.0067 = .382 retracement
    - 1.0034 = .50 ret
    - 1.0001 = .618 ret

    In case the price resumes its advance and breaks above 1.0175 the nearest resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 0.9651-0.9819-0.9678 (waves 1-2), 0.9678-1.0022-0.9893 (waves 3-4), 0.9893-1.0064-1.0021 (subwaves within wave 5).

    Resistances:

    - 1.0192 = objective point (OP)
    - 1.0237 = OP
    - 1.0298 = expanded objective point (XOP)
    [​IMG]

    Overbought/Oversold

    The Detrended Oscillator is consolidating around the zero level, confirming the flat (wave 4). Assuming that the prevailing trend is up it's preferable to seek for bottoming signals to enter long when the price hits a Fibonacci support (.382 or .618) or when the price gets into the oversold - 25 pips to go.

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  2. bhanu545

    bhanu545 Master Trader

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    GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, November 5, 2010

    Pound/yen is moving up in impulse wave C of the medium term uptrend - colored magenta in the chart. within this wave there's also a set of subwaves with wave C developing - colored red. On smaller timeframes all the subwaves are also impulsive - wave 5 (orange red) and wave C (yellow).

    The targets of the advance are Fibonacci retracements of 135.03-126.43, and expansions off 126.43-129.58-127.96, 127.96-130.32-128.87, 128.95-131.24-130.10, 130.10-131.49-131.01.

    Resistances:

    - 131.74 = .618 retracement (!)
    - 131.87 = contracted objective point (COP)
    - 132.39-40 = confluence area of two objective points (OP)
    - 132.69 = expanded objective point (XOP)

    In case the price referses downfor a correction the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 130.10-131.71.

    Supports:

    - 131.09 = .382 ret
    - 130.91 = .50 ret
    - 130.72 = .618 ret
    [​IMG]

    Overbought/Oversold


    The Detrended Oscillator is below the zero line, confirming the corrective wave. Assuming that the prevailing trend is up, it's preferable to open longs on any weakness - particularly when the price hits a Fibonacci support (.50 or .618) or gets into the oversold - 15-25 pips to go.

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  3. bhanu545

    bhanu545 Master Trader

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    The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for November 8, 2010

    4-hour timeframe
    [​IMG]

    Overview:
    The buy signal with the target at 1.4188 is continuing. However the target level has been passed already and the signal weakened. As the price fixated below the Kidjun-Sen and the signal weakened, then the sell signal should be expected soon. , so the trading up is out of the question. In case the sell signal forms, the first target for the downside movement will be the first level of 1.3836. Otherwise, the current buy signal will strengthen, however it is unlikely. The Chinkou Span is above the price graph, thus confirming the current buy signal. The Bollinger Bands show the sideways movement, the lines are diverging and directed sideways. The MACD is descending, thus indicating the current downwards motion.

    Trading recommendations:
    Currently, it is recommended to wait for the sell signal. In case this signal is strong then the first target for the downwards movement will be the level of 1.3836.

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  4. bhanu545

    bhanu545 Master Trader

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    GBP/USD Intraday Technical analysis 2010-11-08

    [​IMG]
    The spot rate is currently testing the lower limit of its medium-term bullish channel and 1.6110 seems to start a rebound. However a break in this area would lead to a downward acceleration and initiate a new trend.

    According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity on the levels of 1.6110 with a 1st objective of 1.6190, then 1.6220. A break in 1.6080 would invalidate this scenario.

    Performed by Albert Fitoussi, Analytical expert
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  5. bhanu545

    bhanu545 Master Trader

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    The US stock market review for 2010-11-10

    On Tuesday the stock indices of the USA closed down amid the intensified investors’ concerns about the probable influence of the stimulus plan announced by the Federal Reserve System last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 60.09 points, or by 0.53%, to 11346.75. The Nasdaq Composite dropped by 17.07 points, or by 0.66%, to 2562.98. The Standard & Poor’s 500 lowered by 9.85 points, or by 0.81%, to 1213.40.
    Bank of America shares strongly fell in price by 2.6%. Despite its plans to sell the shares of BlackRock by 25% more than it was planned, the banking giant does not have enough capital, which it should to raise by a year-end deadline. Chevron stocks lost 1.5%, after the oil giant announce its decision to purchase Atlas Energy for $3.2 billion in cash and wipe off a debt in amount of $1.1 billion. Atlas shareholders will receive $ 38.25 per share in cash that corresponds to a premium of 21% over the closing price on Monday. The shares of Atlas, which are not a DJIA component, rose in price by 34%. The background for the decline were the increasing concerns about the potential impact of the FRS plan to invest $600 billion in the economy, called as the quantitative easing-2 by Wall Street.
    Ahead of the G20 summit, which starts in Seoul on Wednesday, the international controversy over the FRS measures has become more intense. According to the Tuesday data the wholesale inventories of the USA grew more than twice in September, than it was expected. Though the increase in inventory can be considered as the sign of companies’ confidence in the steady demand amid the further economic recovery, some investors are worried whether the companies have more inventory than they can sell.
    [​IMG]
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  6. bhanu545

    bhanu545 Master Trader

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    GBP/USD Intraday Technical analysis 2010-11-10

    [​IMG]The spot rate has bounced off the lower limit of its medium-term downtrend channel in 1.5870 and is currently testing its intermediate resistance to 1.6020. A break of this area would release a significant potential.

    According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate will have broken its resistance in 1.6020 with a 1st objective of 1.6110, then 1.6150. A break in 1.5990 would invalidate this scenario.


    Performed by Albert Fitoussi, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
     
  7. bhanu545

    bhanu545 Master Trader

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    EUR/USD Intraday Technical analysis 2010-11-10

    [​IMG]
    The spot rate has bounced off the lower limit of its medium-term downtrend channel and 1.3740 of its approach to this intermediate resistance at 1.3800. A break of this zone would allow it to reach the upper limit of its downtrend channel at 1.3910.

    According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate will have broken its resistance in 1.3800 with a 1st objective of 1.3890, then 1.3910. A break in 1.3770 would invalidate this scenario.

    Performed by Albert Fitoussi, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
     
  8. bhanu545

    bhanu545 Master Trader

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    EUR/USD A bearish pressure November 11, 2010

    [​IMG]
    A sharp and aggressive bearish wave below the euro/dollar pair peak levels which it has only reached about a week ago, at around 1.4270, the current minimum levels are at around 1.3700, due to the renewed concern related to the debt crisis in Europe. The technical picture of the pair shows that about a month ago the pair operated in a horizontal movement and stagnation after the last bearish wave, and now the pair operates in the lower range of stagnation and is expected to return to the top.
    Also, the American relief plan, which is estimated to weaken the dollar against the euro, helps the pair from below, and also the positive deviation in the indicator that accompanies it secures the best outcome. The trigger to take long position on the pair is conditioned on logoff above 1.3805 resistance level. The break of this level will represent the first step of the upward trend, which has the potential to reach the 1.4600 resistance level, and thus conclude with the stage of stagnation.



    Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
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  9. bhanu545

    bhanu545 Master Trader

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    GBP/USD Intraday Technical analysis 2010-11-11

    [​IMG]
    The spot rate is out of its medium term downtrend channel by breaking the upper limit of this one to 1.6110. A pull back is expected before a resumption of bullish.

    According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity on the levels of 1.6110 with a 1st objective of 1.6180, then 1.6240. A break in 1.6080 would invalidate this scenario.

    Performed by Albert Fitoussi, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
     
  10. bhanu545

    bhanu545 Master Trader

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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis. Support and Resistance Levels For November 15, 2010

    [​IMG]

    Breakout Buy level : 1.3773.
    Strong Resistance : 1.3765.
    Original Resistance : 1.3752.
    Inner Sell Area : 1.3739.
    Target Inner Area : 1.3706.
    Inner Buy Area : 1.3673.
    Original Support : 1.3660.
    Strong Support : 1.3647.
    Breakout Sell level : 1.3639.

    After a breakout from 1.3685, this pair now tries to reach a new target at 1.3625. If this level is easily broken through by this pair today, then there is a possibility for this pair to set a new target at 1.3525 before it goes to 1.3500. However, be careful of the retracement to re-test the level of 1.3750 again.

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  11. bhanu545

    bhanu545 Master Trader

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    GBP/USD Intraday Technical analysis 2010-11-15

    [​IMG]

    The spot rate has bounced off the lower limit of its medium-term bullish channel at 1.6060 and is currently testing the upper limit of its short term trading range at 1.6185. A break of this zone will allow it to reach the upper limit of its channel.

    According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate has broken its resistance at 1.6185 with a 1st objective of 1.6250, and then 1.6290. A breakthrough of 1.6160 would invalidate this scenario.

    Performed by Albert Fitoussi, Analytical expert
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  12. bhanu545

    bhanu545 Master Trader

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    The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for November 16

    [​IMG]

    Overview:
    The sell signal with a target at 1.3576 is still observed. This signal is strong and confirmed, as the Chinkou Span is below the price graph and the price is below the Ishimoku Cloud. Also the price is below the pivot level of 1.3780. Presently, the first support level of 1.3477 is a target for movement. In case this level is passed the next target will be the second support level of 1.3268. It should be said that at present the correction movement has finished. In case the price manages to fixate above the Kijun-Sen (1.3685), the sell signal will weaken and it will be a point to reduce short positions. The Chinkou Span is below the price graph, thus confirming the current sell signal. The Bollinger Bands indicate the downside motion, the lines are diverging and directed downwards. The MACD is descending, thus denoting the resumption of the downtrend.

    Trading recommendations:
    Currently, it is recommended trade down with the target to 1.3477 and further to 1.3268. The stop-loss is set above 1.3685. In case the MACD reverses upside the short positions should be cut.

    Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
     
  13. bhanu545

    bhanu545 Master Trader

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    GBP/USD Intraday Technical analysis 2010-11-16

    [​IMG]

    The spot rate came to test the upper limit of its downtrend channel at 1.6085 and seems to initiate a withdrawal. However a breakout in this area will allow the pair to achieve the upper limit of its medium-term bullish channel at 1.6190.
    According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate has broken through its resistance at 1.6085 with a 1st objective of 1.6160, then 1.6190. A break of 1.6060 would invalidate this scenario.


    Performed by Albert Fitoussi, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
     
  14. bhanu545

    bhanu545 Master Trader

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    GBP/USD.(Daily Signal), November 17, 2010

    [​IMG]

    GBP/USD

    Negative sentiments have taken over the financial markets again, mostly due to concerns over the European debt crisis that remains to be complete, and it now appears that investors are preparing themselves for a second round of negative movements worldwide. The negative sentiment may affect also the British pound – United States dollar pair, which is beginning to show the signs of breaking on the route to a technical correction, and perhaps even a reversal of the positive trend.

    We will only receive a final confirmation of the reversal and the beginning of a meaningful downwards movement after a decisive breach of the trend line accompanying the pair since early June. A daily close under the trend line will serve as an entry trigger for a sell deal with two major exit goals. The first is located near the 1.5500 support level, whereas the second and last goal is poised related to the lower support level around 1.5275 United States dollars for one British pound.

    Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
     
  15. bhanu545

    bhanu545 Master Trader

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    EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis 2010-11-17

    [​IMG]

    Yesterday, the spot rate broke through day its short-term horizontal support at 1.3565 giving the way to a violent acceleration. Therefore a pullback at this area will be expected before a resumption of the downtrend.
    According to previous events, the market indicates a bearish opportunity on the level of 1.3565 with a 1st objective of 1.3470, then 1.3440. A breakout of 1.3595 will invalidate this scenario.


    Performed by Albert Fitoussi, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
     
  16. bhanu545

    bhanu545 Master Trader

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    EUR/USD Outlook Remains Bearish , November 19, 2010

    [​IMG]

    The latest slide has finally stopped after ending a sequence of consecutive daily lower highs, and it seems the market starts the process of correcting the latest major 1.4285-1.3445 move. While there is certainly room for additional upside movement from current levels (1.3715), our outlook remains bearish following the break below 1.3700 several days ago. The 38.2% fib retracement off of the latest move comes in by 1.3760, with the level also offering itself as the midpoint between the 10/20-Day SMAs.
    STRATEGY: Sell is set at 1.3760 or 1.3780 for an Open Objective; STOP is set at 1.3850.


    Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
     
  17. bhanu545

    bhanu545 Master Trader

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    GBP/USD Intraday Technical analysis 2010-11-19

    [​IMG]
    The spot rates approach the upper limit of their medium-term downtrend channel at 1.6095 suggesting a decline in the short term. However a breakout in that area will free up a significant potential and begin an upward trend.
    According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate has broken its resistance level at 1.6095 with a 1st objective of 1.6160, then 1.6190. A breakthrough of 1.6070 will invalidate this scenario.


    Performed by Albert Fitoussi, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
     
  18. bhanu545

    bhanu545 Master Trader

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    The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for November 22

    [​IMG]
    Overview:
    As it was forecasted the sell signal cancelled, the downside movement ended and buy signal with the target level of 1.3953 formed. The current signal is strong and confirmed, as the Chinkou Span managed to fixate above the price curve and price entered the Ishimoku cloud. The current target for the uprising movement is the upper limit of the Ishimoku Cloud (1.3923), which is also a resistance level. In case the first resistance level is broken through the next target will be the second resistance level of 1.4098. The Kijun-Sen (1.3620) is a critical level above which the upside movement is observed; in case the price moves bellow this level the long positions should be cut. The Chinkou Span is above the price graph, thus confirming the current buy signal. The Bollinger Bands show the beginning of the uptrend, the lines are diverging and directed upside. MACD is ascending, thus confirming the current upwards movement.

    Trading recommendations:
    Currently, it is recommended trade up with the target to 1.3923; in case this level is broken through then the target will be 1.4098. The stop-loss is set below 1.3620. If the MACD reverses downside the long positions should be cut.


    Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
     
  19. bhanu545

    bhanu545 Master Trader

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    GBP/USD Intraday Technical analysis 2010-11-22

    [​IMG]

    The spot rate approached the upper limit of its medium-term downtrend channel at 1.6090. A breakthrough of this area will release a significant potential for the beginning of an upward trend.

    According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate has broken out its resistance level at 1.6090 with a 1st objective of 1.6160, then 1.6190. A breakthrough of 1.6070 will invalidate this scenario.

    Performed by Albert Fitoussi, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
     
  20. bhanu545

    bhanu545 Master Trader

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    EUR/USD Analysis by Elliot Waves, November 24, 2010 (Weekly Strategy)

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    EUR/USD

    The technical analysis denotes that the level of 1.3180 will be very meaningful support levels that may serve as a key point for a buy deal. The EUR/USD pair may stretch the borders of correction and reach its final mark around 1.3070, where it probably will reinforce the buy position once more. Our exit goals are forecasted with the help of 5th Elliot cycle wave, and are located around 1.4100 and 1.4450; 1.4500 levels respectively.



    Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
     

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