Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

US Dollar: forecast for Feb 29 - Mar 6

By Kira Iukhtenko

Last week the US Dollar extended the upside for a second week in a row, supported by the strong USD figures. According to the second estimate, the US economy rose by 1% in Q4. What’s more, personal spending and durable goods orders have also shown significant improvement.

US dollar index recovered above 98 pips and remains in a bullish channel. Market gained 61.8% Fibonacci from the early 2016 drop in the recent two weeks. Are the bulls retaking control over the market?

It’s all not so easy. We have to watch the new range of the economic data on the new week. Strong figures could raise expectations for a Fed’s rate hike in March and boost the US currency. Weak data will disappoint and cap the USD upside.

Watch the US manufacturing PMI on Tuesday (forecast – upbeat) and the non-manufacturing PMI on Thursday (forecast – downbeat). On Friday, the markets will focus on the labor market figures. NFP is expected to come at 195K in February (up from the January reading). However, average hourly earnings figure could become a negative factor for the greenback – growth is expected to have slowed to 0.2%.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8079

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: forecast for Feb 29 - Mar 6

By Kira Iukhtenko

British pound fell dramatically last week, breaking below the 1.3900 mark (lowest since 2010). The cable is losing ground amid increased uncertainty about the June referendum outcome. According to the most recent polls, 38% of respondents support the the Brexit, while 37% prefer to stay in the European Union.

Bearish momentum in GBP/USD remains strong. There are no fundamental reasons for the market to reverse until we reach 1.3500 (2009 low). The pair is clearly oversold, but the market is now moved more by the market sentiment, then by the technical factors. Local resistance is seen at 1.4080.

Economic calendar for the new week is rather light. We’ll watch a block of PMI indices from Tuesday to Thursday. According to the official forecasts, manufacturing and services indices have weakened in February.

You should also remember about the US labor market figures on Friday. This is something that could trigger a bullish correction. Average hourly earnings are expected to have declined.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8078

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: forecast for Feb. 29 - Mar. 6

By Elizabeth Belugina

USD/JPY for the second time managed to jump up from 111.00. The advance was triggered by the good US data on Friday – GDP growth for Q4 was revised up, and consumer sentiment was favorable. In Japan industrial production has gained pace, though retail sales once again disappointed.

Resistance in the 114.00/115.00 area is strong. Poor risk sentiment is the main reason behind demand for the yen as a safe haven. The outcome of G20 meeting, which may have changed the situation, didn’t impress investors much. On the one hand the policymakers gave a rather good estimate of global economy and finance. On the other hand, there are serious doubts that coordinated action will be taken if necessary. Fiscal stimulus is not planned, so all care on the well-being of the economies will lie on the central banks, in this case on the Bank of Japan. Taking into account the fact that Japanese central bank has few instruments left, the yen might stick to the current levels.

As a result, in order to change this negative risk averse picture, the bulls require good data from America and China. This week the US will release PMI and NFP. Also don’t miss Chinese statistics on Tuesday and Thursday. Japanese economic calendar once again doesn’t represent much interest.

In the coming days we expect the 114.50/111.00 range to persist.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8077

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: forecast for Feb. 29 - Mar. 6

By Elizabeth Belugina

EUR/USD made a breakthrough below 1.0960 on Friday (trend line support from December and 50% Fibo). German retail sales increased, but import prices fell – a sign of deflation pressure. Flash inflation figures for February also came out much weaker than expected. Core inflation for February was only 0.7% compared with 1% in January. It means that investors will expect more action from the European Central Bank – weak price growth allows the regulator to ease policy.

The single currency will have to feel the pressure ahead of the ECB upcoming meeting next Thursday, March 10. Concerns about potential Brexit (Britain leaving the European Union) also affect the euro. This week the euro area’s economic calendar will be light. No changes in the weak region’s final PMIs due on Tuesday are expected. Pay more attention to the US statistics, especially PMIs on Tuesday and Thursday and NFP on Friday.

The pair closed the week below 55-week MA (1.1025). Technical picture has turned mildly bearish. The euro will likely slide to 1.0830 (61.8% Fibo) /1.0800. If the negative pressure strengthens, the next level to watch will be 1.0710. Resistance is at 1.1000 and 1.1050. The bulls have to push the price above the latter in order to return the lost powers.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8076

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for March 1

The meeting of G20 finance ministers brought no big results disappointing the market. The People’s Bank of China cut the reserve requirement ratio in order to calm down the markets and improve sentiment. US data releases were negative on Monday: pending home sales contracted by 2.5% in January, and Chicago PMI came at 47.5 vs. the forecast of 51.2. On Tuesday watch Chinese official and Caixin Manufacturing PMIs: these releases will have big impact on the market’s mood.

USD/JPY recoiled down from 114.00. Traders bought Japanese currency as a refuge on the back of the falling Asian shares. Support is at 112.00. The pair is expected to maintain sideways trading in the 114.40/111.00 area.

AUD/USD has support at 0.7110/00. The currency failed to overcome 200-day MA (0.7265). The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision at 03:30 GMT. The RBA is expected to keep rates unchanged. If 0.7100 holds, Aussie will be able to recover to 0.7200 and 0.7240. Below 0.7100 AUD/USD will fall to 0.7070 and 0.7015.

EUR/USD opened with a gap down and then failed to return above the former support at 1.0960. The region’s worse-than-expected inflation data sent the single currency down to 1.0860. On Tuesday the euro area will release final manufacturing PMIs for February. No changes of the weaker data are expected. The focus is on 1.0830/00. After that the next support will be at 1.0710.

GBP/USD remained under pressure after it closed below 1.3900 on Friday. The pound was under pressure as polls showed that the “out” vote is becoming grows in popularity. At the same time, GBP/USD is very oversold, but will find resistance at 1.4000 and 1.4080. Support is at 1.3800. British pound looks more vulnerable against Japanese yen. Britain will release manufacturing PMI at 09:30 GMT.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8082

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: candlestick analysis
1 March 2016
Galina Svetlova

There’s a “Bullish Harami” at the last low, so the current correction will probably go higher. It’s likely to see any bearish candle patterns on the 55 Moving Average. As we can see on the daily chart, there’s a strong support by the “Window” and previously formed the “Hummer” and “ Tweezers” are still actual.

We’ve got a “Harami” at the local low and all last candles are strongly bullish. At the same time, it’s likely that any bearish candle pattern arrives afterwards. If so, the market might go into a local downward correction towards the moving average lines.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8092

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: candlestick analysis
1 March 2016
Galina Svetlova

The price faced a support at the last “Window” zone, where a “Hammer” was formed previously. It’s likely to see an upward correction towards the level of “Three Methods” pattern and continue the main bearish trend afterwards. As we can see on the daily chart, there’s a possible ending of “Thrusting Line” pattern, so the market can go lower to the nearest support line.

There’s an “Inverted Hammer” at the last low, which entered the price into an upward correction. It’s likely that the price will find a resistance on the 34 Moving Average. Also, here’s a possibility to see a bearish reversal pattern on this line.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8091

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: technical analysis
1 March 2016
Sergey Logachev

The pair has a downward trend, which faced a support at 1.3878 and the price started a correction afterwards. There’s a “Flag” pattern, so it's likely to see a downward movement to a support area between the levels 1.3834 - 1.3681 until we've got any bullish reversal pattern. If so, the market might start rising towards a resistance area at 1.3931 – 1.3958.

There's a local downward trend on the one-hour chart. The price found a support at 1.3878 and a “Double Bottom” pattern has been formed. Moreover, here’s a “Pennant” pattern as well. It's likely that the pair will go higher to a resistance area between the levels 1.3958 – 1.4026. However, the price might go to a new downward movement afterwards to a support area under the level 1.3824.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8089

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: technical analysis
1 March 2016
Sergey Logachev

The pair has a downward trend, which faced a support at 1.3878 and the price started a correction afterwards. There’s a “Flag” pattern, so it's likely to see a downward movement to a support area between the levels 1.3834 - 1.3681 until we've got any bullish reversal pattern. If so, the market might start rising towards a resistance area at 1.3931 – 1.3958.

There's a local downward trend on the one-hour chart. The price found a support at 1.3878 and a “Double Bottom” pattern has been formed. Moreover, here’s a “Pennant” pattern as well. It's likely that the pair will go higher to a resistance area between the levels 1.3958 – 1.4026. However, the price might go to a new downward movement afterwards to a support area under the level 1.3824.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8089

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: technical analysis
1 March 2016
Sergey Logachev

The market had been falling down since last Friday. The price found a support at 1.0858, which entered the price into a consolidation phase. As far as we’ve got a “Rising Wedge” and a broken up trend, it’s likely to see more selling pressure in the short term. If the pair reaches a support at 1.0809 – 1.0776, it could be a start for a correction towards to a resistance area between the levels 1.0858 – 1.0922.

The price has found a support at 1.0858 on the one-hour chart and a consolidation was started from this level. There’s a possible “Flag” pattern in progress, so it’s likely that the price will go higher towards a resistance area between the 34 Moving Average line and the level 1.0922. The price might start falling down afterwards to a support area between the levels 1.0858 – 1.0809.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8088

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/СHF: buy target - 1.4000
1 March 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/СHF reversed from strong support zone
-Next buy target - 1.4000

GBP/СHF continues to rise after the earlier upward reversal from the strong support zone surrounding the long-term support level 1.3800 (which also previously reversed the earlier intermediate ABC correction (2) in May of 2015, as can be seen from the daily GBP/СHF chart below). This support zone was further strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band.

Given the strength of the support zone near 1.3800 - GBP/СHF can be expected to rise further from the current levels toward the next buy target at the round resistance level 1.4000 – the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward 1.4150.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8095

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for March 2

By Kira Iukhtenko

US Dollar gained additional support on Tuesday after the unexpectedly strong US manufacturing PMI release. USD index keeps on rising above the 98 figure and we see space for more USD upside this week. Watch the ADP NFP and crude oil inventories figures on Wednesday.

EUR/USD is testing the 1.0850 support, despite the upeat euro zone’s labor market figures. Euro is expected to decline ahead of the ECB March 10th meeting. On Wednesday, pay attention to the euro zone’s PPI – more weakness is expected. We are targeting 1.0500 in the medium term.

As we expected, GBP/USD is moving to the downside. Sales were triggered by the weak manufacturing PMI. The pair attempted to recover above 1.4000 earlier in the day, but came under renewed bearish pressure. Next bearish target lies at 1.3830. Watch the UK construction PMI tomorrow (forecast – upbeat). We are targeting 1.3500 in the medium term as the Brexit topic will dominate the headlines in the coming weeks.

AUD/USD is trading slightly above the 0.7100 mark and has potential for more downside. Australia is scheduled to release Q4 GDP on Wednesday – growth is expected to have slowed to 0.5%. USD/JPY remains supported, but the greenback is still not too confident to break out of the sideways channel. We need a break above 114.00 to confirm the reversal.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8099

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: technical analysis
2 March 2016
Sergey Logachev

There's a local downward trend on the four-hour chart, but yesterday we've got a flat, which faced a support at 1.0858. As far as we’ve got a “Rising Wedge”, it’s likely to see more selling presuare towards a support at 1.0809. The market might start rising afterwards to a resistance at 1.0922.

The price has found a support at the area 1.0858 - 1.0809 on the one-hour chart. An upward correction was started after a “V-Bottom” has been formed. It’s likely that the pair will go higher towards a resistance area between the 34 Moving Average line and the level 1.0911. The price might start falling down afterwards to a support at 1.0809.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8102

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: technical analysis
3 March 2016
Sergey Logachev

The price has been rising since a “Triple Bottom” was formed at the last low. The local downward trend has been broken, so it’s likely to see a rise towards a resistance area between the levels 1.4148 – 1.4172. If we see a pullback from these levels, the market might start falling down towards a support between the levels 1.4042 – 1.3958.

There’s a consolidation in progress along the support 1.4078. Previously, the local downward trend has been broken. It’s likely to see a bearish movement to a support area between the levels 1.4152 – 1.4167. However, bulls might come back and try to reach a resistance area between the level 1.4018 and the 55 Moving Average line.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8116

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: technical analysis
3 March 2016
Sergey Logachev

We’ve got a local downward trend on the four-hour chart. Yesterday the price was going up and down in a flat and finally reached a support at 1.0858. It’s likely to see a bearish movement to a support at 1.0809, but then the market might start rising towards a resistance at 1.0922.

The pair has been found a support at 1.0834 and a “V - Top” pattern was formed afterwards, so the market had some reasons to start rising. It's likely that the price will go lower to a support at 1.0809. However, bulls might come back and try to reach a resistance at the downward trend between the levels 1.0858 – 1.0880.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8115

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for March 4

Kira Iukhtenko

Demand for the US Dollar weakened after the weak unemployment claims figures on Thursday. Block of labor market data on Friday is now in focus – these are the figures that will define the further market dynamics ahead of the Fed’s Mach 16 meeting. NFP are expected to come at 195K in February, while the average hourly earnings are forecasted to surprise to the downside. We expect USD to recover some ground ahead of the release.

EUR/USD has recovered above 1.0900, but remains in a bearish channel. Strong resistance lies at 1.0950, we expect a break lower from here on Friday. Strong support – local low at 1.0820.

GBP/USD is developing a bullish correction and has recovered above 1.4150.This is where 38.2% Fibonaccilies. The bullish momentum remains strong as of now. Daily close above 1.4100 will confirm and inverse “head-and-shoulders” formation.Support is seen at 1.4080 and 1.4040.

AUD/USD is developing a bullish trend. However, resistance at 0.7380/90 could limit the upside. USD/JPY turned down to 114.00. The US labor market figures could trigger a new wave of buying.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8127

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: forecast for March 7-13

By Elizabeth Brelugina

US labor market data turned out to be mixed. Despite strong Nonfarm Payrolls, average hourly earnings declined. As a result, the level of 115.00 (38.2% of February decline) still looks like a hard obstacle. Only a daily fix above this point will return power to the bulls. On the downside, support lies at 113.00, 112.20 ahead of 111.00.

In the meantime, the market is starting to expect more action from the Bank of Japan and this is why the pair is trying to stabilize. There’s information that an advocate of aggressive monetary easing may join the central bank’s board at the end of March. The next Bank of Japan’s meeting will be on March 15.

The Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda will speak on Monday. A block of Japanese economic statistics is due on Tuesday.

The market’s risk sentiment will also be important for the dynamics of USD/JPY. Chinese National People’s Congress will take place on Saturday. If the nation announces measures to support economy, including fiscal stimulus, the market’s risk appetite will revive reducing demand for the yen as a safe haven.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8139

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: forecast for March 7-13

By Elizabeth Belugina

EUR/USD tested 1.0825, but found some support because of the general weakness in the US dollar.

The highlight of the week will be the European Central Bank’s meeting on Thursday. The ECB President Mario Draghi said this week that the region’s growth and inflation outlook became worse and that the regulator will have to consider these negative developments at March meeting. European inflation turned negative in February: consumer prices fell by 0.2%.

As a result, the possibility of more easing from the ECB on March 10 is almost 100%. The main question is how much the ECB will do. Traders are quite sure of a 10-basis-point cut. Other options available to the central bank include technical changes to quantitative easing (QE) program or an increase in monthly QE purchases from the current level of 60 billion euro. It’s clear that larger QE will drag the euro down, while the minor changes won’t be an obstacle for the bulls. In addition, European banks complain that negative interest rates are affecting their profitability, so the ECB may announce a multi-tier deposit rate system. Such step will encourage euro-funded carry trade and, consequently, increase bearish pressure on the euro.

In our view, the ECB remembers how it disappointed the market in December when it delivered a too small easing package and will try not to repeat its mistake. The base scenario thus will be to sell the single currency on the event. The euro is vulnerable versus Australian dollar and other higher-yielding commodity currencies.

Resistance is at 1.1050, 1.1165 and 1.1250. Support is at 1.0830 and 1.0710.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8138

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: forecast for March 7-13

Kira Iukhtenko

The past week turned to be positive for the UK pound – the pair managed to rebound from the levels below 1.3900 to the levels above 1.4100. However, the bullish move was paused by the mixed US labor market figures on Friday.

Technically, the pair is now testing the levels above 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. What’s more, you may see a clear bullish channel and an inverse “head-and-shoulders” formation on the H4 chart. We see potential for a recovery to 1.4250 on the coming week. Key support is seen at 1.4080.

UK economic calendar for the new week is rather light. Watch the UK manufacturing production figures on Wednesday. The market will mostly be driven by the Fed’s expectations – we expect them to decline gradually ahead of the coming March 16 policy meeting in the United States.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8140

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

US Dollar: forecast for March 7-13

Kira Iukhtenko

On Friday, the bunch of mixed US labor market figures shook the markets. US NFP surprised to the upside, while the average hourly earnings came out below the forecast. In the current conditions, the second indicator is more important for the Federal Reserve, so the demand for the US dollar declined after all.

Next week we expect the bearish trend for the US Dollar to continue. Traders expect the Fed to reveal concerns on the prospects of the US economy on the March 16th meeting and delay the next step of policy tightening. US economic calendar for the new week is rather light. On Monday, listen to the FOMC members Brainard and Fisher speaking. On Wednesday, a new portion of the March crude oil inventories data will be released, while on Thursday pay attention to the US unemployment claims.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8142