Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for October 15

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold LONG from 1.1320, TAKE PROFIT 1.1561, STOP LOSS 1.1263 (revised)

USD/JPY: Hold LONG from 119.46, TAKE PROFIT 120.57, STOP LOSS 118.59

USD/CHF: Hold SHORT at 0.9540, TAKE PROFIT 0.9301 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.9601

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7218, TAKE PROFIT 0.7497, STOP LOSS 0 .7140

USD/CAD: Hold SHORTfrom 1.3030, TAKE PROFIT 1.2862, STOP LOSS 1.3081

NZD/USD: Hold LONG from 0.6480, TAKE PROFIT 0.6882 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.6610 (revised)

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG from 1.0910, TAKE PROFIT 1.1186, STOP LOSS 1.0865

EUR/GBP:Hold LONG from 0.7375, TAKE PROFIT 0.7525 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.7380 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG from 136.05, TAKE PROFIT 137.61, STOP LOSS 135.39 (revised)

Trade ideas:

GBP/USD: Possibly BUY

GBP/JPY: BUY at 183.20, TAKE PROFIT 185.93, STOP LOSS 182.29

EUR/CAD: BUY at 1.4795, TAKE PROFIT 1.5158, STOP LOSS 1.4675

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[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for October 16

The market’s sentiment is very changeable as it swings by the influence of data releases. US inflation data for September came in line with expectations with the core figures slightly exceeding forecast. All in all, traders were preparing for worse, so US dollar performed better after the figures came out. American unemployment claims turned out to be better than expected, though Empire State manufacturing index disappointed. On Friday, the United States will release industrial production and consumer sentiment data.

EUR/USD has almost reached 1.1500, but then was aggressively sold off. The euro was hit by comments of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny that the ECB is missing its inflation target and additional instruments are needed. Such talk increased the speculation of additional easing from the central bank. A close below 1.1400 will open the way for further declines. Support is at 1.1350 and 1.1315/00. Resistance is at 1.1460, 1.1500 and 1.1540.

GBP/USD was correcting after big gains on Wednesday and as it reached resistance in the 1.5500 zone (100-day MA). Support is at 1.5380 and 1.5320 (200-day MA). Above this point the pound retains potential for more upside. Resistance is at 1.5540 and 1.5600. MPC member Forbes will speak at 10:30 GMT.

USD/JPY fell to the 118.05 area. A close above 118.50 will allow the pair to recover to 119.50/70. Further resistance is at 120.35/50. On the downside, support is at 117.00. The Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda will speak at 06:35 GMT.

AUD/USD made another test of the 100-day MA at 0.7360. Australian dollar was supported by the better risk sentiment on the expectations that the US Fed won’t raise rates this year. However, Australian employment declined in September. Resistance of the 2014-2015 trend in the 0.7400 area will be hard for the bulls to break. The pair may retest strong support in the 0.7200/7180 zone which guards the way to 0.7100. The Reserve Bank of Australian will release Financial Stability Review early on Friday.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6757

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
US Dollar: forecast for October 19-25

[URL deleted]Kira Iukhtenko

New week on the financial markets started with a bunch of Chinese releases. China’s economy rose more than expected in Q3, lowering uncertainty and leaving space for a Fed’s rate hike in 2015.

In our view view, the US dollar has room for recovery on the new week. Unexpectedly strong CPI released last week, upbeat quarterly corporate reports, improvement of the global sentiment – all that supports the ide of a rate hike in December. For now, the chance for that is around 30%. You should also note that the net USD longs decline to a 15-months low. The correction was deep enough no mitigate the oversold conditions for the greenback.

US economic calendar on the new week is rather light. The only events to watch are the housing market news on Tuesday. The Fed’s officials will deliver their last speeches before the October 28th meeting during the week. Yanet Yellen is scheduled to speak on Tuesday.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6775

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/USD: forecast for October 19-25

By Elizabeth Belugina

In line with our expectations, the euro continued going up after it had broken above August-September resistance line. The European currency was supported by the market’s negative risk sentiment and weaker-than-expected US economic data. However, EUR/USD failed to overcome resistance in the 1.1500 area and went abruptly down on the dovish comments of the ECB Governing Council member Nowotny.

The first half of the next week will be relatively light on economic data from both Europe and the United States. All in all, the focus will be on the euro area. One has to pay great attention to the European Central Bank’s meeting and press conference on Thursday. Ahead of the meeting, the euro will clearly remain under pressure, as there is a chance that the regulator will make announcements about the monetary easing. Trading after the meeting will naturally depend on what the ECB president Mario Draghi says. The risks for the euro area bearish. Note that the euro area will also release flash manufacturing and services PMIs on Friday. If the ECB’s position doesn’t become clearer, the market will make its judgment on the basis of these data. The figures are unlikely to be very bright. The speculators’ short positions on euro have contracted, and now the single currency will be more vulnerable to the negative data.

China’s weak GDP and industrial production data released on Monday did not provide a push higher for the euro: negative sentiment is smoothed out by the expectations of additional monetary easing from the People’s Bank of China. Support is at 1.1260, 1.1215 and 1.1170. Resistance is at 1.1400, 1.1460 and 1.1500.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6778

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/JPY: forecast for October 19-25

By Elizabeth Belugina

During the past week USD/JPY tested lower levels in the 118.05 area. It happened as traders pulled the expectations of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike further into future. Thus, the greenback lost its main bullish driver. Moreover, demand for the Japanese yen as a safe haven was rather strong. By the end of the week, however, risk sentiment has somewhat improved, and a bullish ‘hammer’ candle was formed on the pair’s daily chart.

The US dollar is still supported by the monetary policy divergence between the US and Japan: American economic data became better, and even with the Fed’s rate hike expectations diminished it’s clear that the Unites States will be the first to tighten policy. In addition, Japan lowered its assessment of the economy and industrial production last week. Still, the Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda once again sounded optimistic about Japanese economy and inflation on Friday. Japan’s unwillingness to add monetary stimulus is limiting USD/JPY on the upside. As a result, the pair is doomed to continue its sideways movement.

Next week Japanese economic calendar is almost empty: it will be the calm before the storm of the Bank of Japan’s meeting on October 30. There will not be many data from the US either. As a result, risk sentiment will be the main market mover. China released weak GDP and industrial production data released on Monday, but negative sentiment was smoothed out by the expectations of additional monetary easing from the People’s Bank of China.

The bears failed to make USD/JPY fix below 118.50. It emphasizes the fact that there is demand for the American currency in this area. Further support is at 117.00 (support line since 2012). Resistance is at 120.00, 120.35 and 120.90.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6777

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for October 20

By Elizabeth Belugina

The market’s risk sentiment was influenced by China. The nation’s Q3 GDP growth slowed down from 7% to 6.9%, the lowest reading since 2009, though slightly above expectations of 6.8%. China’s industrial production growth pace decline from 6.1% to 5.7% (forecast: 6.0%). Fixed asset investment also disappointed. Still, there was no rush in safe havens as the market expects the People’s Bank of China to step in with additional monetary stimulus.

On Tuesday pay attention to the US housing data at 12:30 GMT (USD will benefit from a good reading) and the speeches of the FOMC members at 13:00-13:15 GMT and Janet Yellen (15:00 GMT).

EUR/USD slid towards 1.1300. The upcoming meeting of the European Central Bank on Thursday creates negative pressure on the euro. We prefer short positions on the euro. Support is at 1.1300, 1.1260 and 1.1215.

GBP/USD is once again testing resistance in the 1.5490 area (100-day MA). Support is at 1.5415/00 and as long as it holds we can’t rule out a thrust up to further resistance is at 1.5545 and 1.5600. Below 1.5400 support will be at 1.5380 and 1.5235. The Bank of England’s MPC member McCafferty will speak at 09:45 GMT and Governor Carney will take the stage at 10:00 GMT. Expect more volatility to come. UK labor market data last week were not very bad, so it’s interesting how Carney will comment on that. On Friday MPC member Forbes claimed that a rate hike in Britain would come sooner rather than later.

USD/JPY is little changed in the 119.30 area. The expectations of an increase in the Bank of Japan’s monetary stimulus this month have declined and the pair’s recovery will likely be limited. Support is at 119.00, 118.70 and 118.05. Resistance is at 119.65, 120.00 and 120.90.

AUD/USD tested 0.7300, but failed to break higher and will likely retreat to lower levels. Negative Chinese data finally sank in. Support is at 0.7235, 0.7200 (strong level) and 0.7160. The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting will be released early on Tuesday. Resistance is at 0.7350, 0.7380 and 0.7440.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6788

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/JPY: weekly wave analysis
20 October 2015

Roman Petuchov

Weekly. Beginning part of the new bullish impulse [3] is now being formed. Let's see the markup on the H4 chart.

H4. After the end of the bullish impulse , we've seen a decline in a new corrective wave [ii]. It will be over this week. Afterwards we'll see a bullish move.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6800

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/JPY: weekly wave analysis
20 October 2015

Roman Petuchov

Weekly. Beginning part of the new bullish impulse [3] is now being formed. Let's see the markup on the H4 chart.

H4. After the end of the bullish impulse , we've seen a decline in a new corrective wave [ii]. It will be over this week. Afterwards we'll see a bullish move.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6800

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Trading plan for October 21

By Kira Iukhtenko

Forex economic calendar on Wednesday, October 21, is rather light. Pay special attention to the Bank of Canada meeting. Interest rate is expected to be left at 0.5%. However, the press-conference could bring a bunch of negative surprises for the Canadian economy. USD/CAD traded under pressure on Tuesday, but we are ready to go LONG on a fix above 1.3000 and with an initial target at 1.3060. Break higher will confirm an inverse “head-and-shoulders” formation and will be a broader bullish sign. Support lies at 1.2900.

Another attractive pair to trade in the coming sessions is GBP/USD. We advise going LONG on a fix above 1.5500 targeting 1.5580 (38.2% Fibonacci). Key support lies at 1.5410/00. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will deliver a speech on Wednesday, while on Thursday the market will focus on the UK retail sales. Upbeat forecast could become a growth driver for the cable.

The major event of the week is the European Central bank meeting on Thursday. Rates are expected to stay on hold at 0.05%, while the Mario Draghi could deliver a cart of dovish comments later in the day or even announce an additional QE. EUR/USD break below the trend line at 1.1330 is a good moment to go SHORT. Major support is now seen at 1.1250 – break below will confirm the end of the mid-term bullish phase. Resistance – 55-week MA at 1.1450.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6805

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
AUD/NZD: buy target - 1.0850
21 October 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• AUD/NZD reached sell target 1.0700
• Next buy target - 1.0850

AUD/NZD recently reversed up sharply from the support zone (which also previously reversed the second intermediate wave (2) in May) lying between the support levels 1.0700 (sell target set in our previous forecast for this currency pair) and 1.0600. This support zone was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the active minor impulse wave 3 (which belongs to the intermediate (C)-wave from the middle of September).

AUD/NZD is likely to correct up further toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.0850. Strong support zone remains between price levels 1.0700 and 1.0600.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6812

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/JPY: buy target - 121.00
21 October 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• USD/JPY reversed from pivotal support level 118.60
• Next buy target - 121.00

USD/JPY continues to rise inside the 3rd minor impulse wave – which started previously – when the pair reversed up sharply from the pivotal support level 118.60 (which has been reversing the price from the start of September). The last three upward reversals from this support level created the following Japanese candlestick reversal patterns (highlighted below) – Morning Star, Long-legged Doji and most recently – it created the daily Hammer.

USD/JPY is expected to rise further inside the active minor impulse wave 3 (which is a part of the intermediate impulse wave (5) from the end of August) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 121.00.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6811

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for October 21

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold LONG at 1.1350, TAKE PROFIT 1.1495, STOP LOSS 1.1290

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.60, TAKE PROFIT 120.57, STOP LOSS 119.12

USD/CHF: Hold SHORT at 0.9540, TAKE PROFIT 0.9302, STOP LOSS 0.9601 (revised)

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7218, TAKE PROFIT 0.7497, STOP LOSS 0.7195

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2970, TAKE PROFIT 1.3177, STOP LOSS 1.2870

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 136.22, TAKE PROFIT 133.99, STOP LOSS 136.76

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7335, TAKE PROFIT 0.7197, STOP LOSS 0.7400

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.4715, TAKE PROFIT 1.4387, STOP LOSS 1.4855

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 183.20, TAKE PROFIT 187.37, STOP LOSS 183.45

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.6745, TAKE PROFIT 0.6937, STOP LOSS 0.6680

Trade ideas:

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5405, TAKE PROFIT 1.5659, STOP LOSS 1.5315

EUR/CHF: SELL at 1.0865, TAKE PROFIT 1.0713, STOP LOSS 1.0925

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[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Trading plan for October 22

By Kira Iukhtenko

All the commodity assets traded under pressure on Wednesday. Brent price slipped below 48 dollars per barrel, approaching the local 47 support (September lows). Meanwhile, Bank of Canada left monetary policy unchanged, but lowered economic projections for 2015-2017. As a result, USD/CAD jumped, reaching our recent target at 1.3060. The inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on the H4 chart was confirmed. We recommend going LONG on pullbacks to 1.3070.

AUD/USD is currently trading in a short-term bearish channel and approached the 0.7200 support. Go SHORT on a break below 0.7200 targeting 0.7160 initially or sell the Aussie on highs if they happen. We stay bearish below 0.7350.

The ECB meeting is the key event to watch on Thursday. We expect to hear dovish comments from the ECB president Mari Draghi, paving the ground for more QE in December. EUR/USD is forecasted to break out from the current sideways channel tomorrow. SELL the pair from 1.1330 targeting 1.1250 initially.

GBP/USD is also trading in a flat range these days. We still expect the cable to undertake another push higher, targeting 1.5580. However, do not go LONG before the pair fixes above 1.5500 on the daily chart. UK retail sales are expected to render some support to the pair tomorrow.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6818

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
GBP/AUD: buy target - 2.1600
22 October 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• GBP/AUD reached buy target 2.1400
• Next buy target - 2.1600

GBP/AUD continues to rise after the price recently broke above the resistance level 2.1400, which was set in our previous forecast as the buy target for this currency pair. The breakout of this resistance level is likely to accelerate the active intermediate impulse wave (5) – which started earlier this month, when the pair reversed up with the daily Morning Star reversal pattern from the strong support level 2.0860 (as you can see below).

GBP/AUD is expected to rise further in the active waves 1 and (5) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 2.1600 (standing close to the breakout level of the previous daily up channel from May).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6824

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
AUD/USD: sell target - 0.7100
22 October 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• AUD/USD falling inside intermediate impulse wave (5)
• Next sell target - 0.7100

AUD/USD recently reversed down sharply from the resistance level 0.7400, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The resistance zone near the resistance level 0.7400 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band, 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave 3 from June and by the upper resistance trendline of the daily up channel from the start of September (which has enclosed the previous ABC wave (4)).

AUD/USD is likely to fall further in the active intermediate impulse wave (5) toward the next sell target at the support level 0.7100.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6825

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for October 23

By [URL deleted] Elizabeth Belugina

The euro slumped on dovish comments of the ECB’s president Mario Draghi on Thursday. Draghi said that the ECB would keep conducting quantitative easing (QE) until September 2016 or longer if necessary. According to Draghi, there is no shortage of the bonds for the ECB to buy. The main bearish statement, which gave such force to the bears, was that the central bank discussed the possibility of the deposit rate cut at its meeting. EUR/USD found some support at 1.1170 (100-day MA). The trend line support since August was breached and now acts as strong resistance in the 1.1250 area. We recommend selling the euro on the pullbacks up. Further support is at 1.1125 and 1.1100 ahead of 1.1015. The euro zone’s flash October manufacturing and services PMIs will be released on Friday (07:00-08:00 GMT). The forecasts project a slight decline in readings.

Also note, that the US dollar was strong not only versus the euro, but also against British pound and Japanese yen, as American unemployment claims were at their best readings since 2000. GBP/USD tried to rise above 1.5500 on bright national data: UK retail sales jumped by 1.9% in September (forecast: +0.3%), though August change was revised down to -0.4%. However, after the US data releases cable fell to 1.5400. A close below this level will significantly reduce the possibility of the break to the upside. Focus is on 1.5380 and 1.5330 (200-day MA) on the downside.

USD/JPY rose above 120.00, but is going to face a very serious resistance in the 120.90/121.00 zone. Support is at 120.00 and 119.60. AUD/USD was holding above an important support at 0.7200 as the ECB meeting improved the market’s risk sentiment. However, the pull back up may be limited by resistance at 0.7280/0.7300.
More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6833

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/AUD: sell targets - 1.5200 and 1.5100
23 October 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• EUR/AUD broke support levels 1.5430 and 1.5320
• Next sell targets - 1.5200 and 1.5100

EUR/AUD continues to fall strongly inside the active minor impulse wave 3 (which recently reversed down twice from the resistance zone lying between resistance level 1.5800 and 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous downward price move from August). This impulse wave then broke the support levels 1.5430 (which reversed the price earlier this month) and 1.5320. The breakout of these support levels was preceded by the breakout of the support trendline of the daily up channel from April – which intensified the bearish pressure on this currency pair.

EUR/AUD is likely to fall further in the accelerated downward impulse wave 3 toward the next sell targets at the support levels 1.5200 and 1.5100.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6837

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
NZD/CHF: buy target - 0.6800
23 October 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• NZD/CHF broke pivotal resistance level 0.6500
• Next buy target - 0.6800

NZD/CHF recently broke sharply above the pivotal resistance level 0.6500 (which reversed the previous minor correction (iv) in August, as you can see below). The breakout of this resistance level was preceded by the breakout of the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the earlier sharp downward impulse wave from April. The breakout of these resistance levels greatly accelerated the active (c)-wave, which belongs to the minor ABC correction 2 from the end of August.

NZD/CHF is likely to rise further in the active waves (c) and 2 toward the next buy target at the resistance level 0.6800 (previous strong support level, which reversed the pair multiple times in May).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6838

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
US Dollar: forecast for October 25-30
23 October 2015
By Kira Iukhtenko

Last week the US dollar has recovered some ground after the ECB meeting on Thursday. Dovish Mario Draghi’s comments pushed the US Dollar index to the resistance of the “autumn” sideways channel at 96.50. It is too early to predict a longer term recovery, though. Break above 97 points is needed to confirm the bullish reversal.

Economic calendar for the new week is full of important releases. The Fed will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, while on Thursday we’ll watch the Q3 GDP. PCE index and employment cost index are to be released on Friday.

We do not expect these macro data to change the flat trend in USD. According to the futures market, the chance for a rate hike in October is less than 6%. Press conference will be organized only if a policy change takes place.

Q3 GBP is forecasted to slow down from 3.9% to about 1.5% on the back of the weaker external demand for the US goods. The only bearish risk for the greenback this week is the quarterly Employment Cost Index – a recovery from a record low of 0.2% would be an upbeat signal for the Fed in December.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6840

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for October 23

Open positions:

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7217, TAKE PROFIT 0.7002, STOP LOSS 0.7312

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2970, TAKE PROFIT 1.3218, STOP LOSS 1.2930

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7335, TAKE PROFIT 0.7197, STOP LOSS 0.7335 (revised)

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 183.20, TAKE PROFIT 188.31, STOP LOSS 184.41

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.6745, TAKE PROFIT 0.6937, STOP LOSS 0.6680

Trade ideas:

GBP/USD: SELL at 1.5420, TAKE PROFIT 1.5201, STOP LOSS .5525

EUR/CAD: SELL AT 1.4640, TAKE PROFIT 1.4387, STOP LOSS 1.4750

EUR/USD: Possibly SELL at 1.1180/85

USD/JPY: Possibly BUY at 120.35/25

USD/CHF: Possibly BUY

EUR/JPY: Possibly SELL

EUR/CHF: Possibly SELL

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