Daily Market Analysis by GTCFX

limyeeshin

Master Trader
Aug 12, 2015
151
0
57
Singapore
www.solforex.com
There is some moderate profit-taking across some assets in line with expectations as traders unwind positions ahead of the seasonal break (annual holidays) for financial markets. It is important to be mindful that due to Christmas falling on Monday this year, that Christmas Eve in terms of a working day for some territories can begin from tomorrow (Friday). So its possible that traders will close more positions today. Likewise, Boxing Day falls on Tuesday next week. Main asset that appears to be likely to suffer from softness at this stage is World Markets (Indices especially in US) because of how much hype investors have priced into their expectations regarding US Federal Reserve interest rate policy 2024. (Remember that November was the best month for many global markets in approximately 3 years so a correction is possible).While the FED has by most accounts prepared us that it might begin to cut US interest rates from March 2024, the economic data from several standpoints is still robust (especially when compared to its developed peers). As usual, we never say never to anything in international finance. We can expect for the potential of thin liquidity over the coming trading sessions. The trading ranges for this week have been tight in comparison to some of the material moves we have seen over the final quarter of 2024. Which is normal considering the Festive Season.
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limyeeshin

Master Trader
Aug 12, 2015
151
0
57
Singapore
www.solforex.com
ECB left interest rates unchanged as expected. Also left investors who were optimistically hoping that the ECB might give a timeframe for cutting interest rates empty handed. While inflation has dropped drastically from peak just above 10% late 2022 to around 2.9% now (small increase in dec 2023 compared to nov 2023) the ECB are rightly concerned about the situation in the Red Sea and whether this will cause shocks to import/export prices. So while economic sentiment is dire and depressing, the data is awful ... and the ECB could cut interest rates fast and aggressively to prevent risks of persistent recession, it will not do so
1) because ECB has always been conservative with policy and this includes current President of ECB Lagarde who also was in charge of the IMF previously.
2) The ECB target for inflation is 2% and it will not cut rates until that target is consistently met.
Elsewhere, US GDP Q4 2023 grew above 3% (well above approx 2% expectations) and follows the impressive 4.9% reading for Q3 2023. It seems as of now that 2024 and 2023 are starting similar fashion where everyone thought/expected US economy to plummet but still no signs of this. As such, expectations for US rate cut in March are dramatically declining (from 90% probability just before Xmas to many who are now suspicious that Fed will not cut in May either). Today there is a US inflation reading (not CPI) that can be considered as event risk. Next week is a key week for multiple tier-one data releases as well as the Fed interest rate decision where we should expect Chair Powell to be questioned heavily regarding interest rate policy expectations because there is a wide disconnect between what the Fed prepared market for from Q3 2023 to the reality today.
My personal view is that another round of strength for Greenback is on the cards, World Markets are at risk because central banks are not in a hurry to cut interest rates and that is what is priced in and as such, Gold outlook is also bearish as a result of US Dollar resilience. (Geopolitics/world events might change this)

We will do a week ahead briefing on Monday where will go over all different potential event risks and implications for different assets.