Technical analysis on EU,GU and majors

[bhanu545]

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, November 5, 2010

AUD/USD is developing wave 5 of the midterm uptrend - colored red in the chart. Within this wave there's a set of 4 waves with wave 4 being corrective - colored yellow in the chart.

The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9893-1.0175.

Supports:

- 1.0067 = .382 retracement
- 1.0034 = .50 ret
- 1.0001 = .618 ret

In case the price resumes its advance and breaks above 1.0175 the nearest resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 0.9651-0.9819-0.9678 (waves 1-2), 0.9678-1.0022-0.9893 (waves 3-4), 0.9893-1.0064-1.0021 (subwaves within wave 5).

Resistances:

- 1.0192 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0237 = OP
- 1.0298 = expanded objective point (XOP)


Overbought/Oversold

The Detrended Oscillator is consolidating around the zero level, confirming the flat (wave 4). Assuming that the prevailing trend is up it's preferable to seek for bottoming signals to enter long when the price hits a Fibonacci support (.382 or .618) or when the price gets into the oversold - 25 pips to go.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

[bhanu545]

Pound/yen is moving up in impulse wave C of the medium term uptrend - colored magenta in the chart. within this wave there's also a set of subwaves with wave C developing - colored red. On smaller timeframes all the subwaves are also impulsive - wave 5 (orange red) and wave C (yellow).

The targets of the advance are Fibonacci retracements of 135.03-126.43, and expansions off 126.43-129.58-127.96, 127.96-130.32-128.87, 128.95-131.24-130.10, 130.10-131.49-131.01.

Resistances:

- 131.74 = .618 retracement (!)
- 131.87 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 132.39-40 = confluence area of two objective points (OP)
- 132.69 = expanded objective point (XOP)

In case the price referses downfor a correction the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 130.10-131.71.

Supports:

- 131.09 = .382 ret
- 130.91 = .50 ret
- 130.72 = .618 ret


Overbought/Oversold

The Detrended Oscillator is below the zero line, confirming the corrective wave. Assuming that the prevailing trend is up, it's preferable to open longs on any weakness - particularly when the price hits a Fibonacci support (.50 or .618) or gets into the oversold - 15-25 pips to go.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

[bhanu545]

4-hour timeframe


Overview:
The buy signal with the target at 1.4188 is continuing. However the target level has been passed already and the signal weakened. As the price fixated below the Kidjun-Sen and the signal weakened, then the sell signal should be expected soon. , so the trading up is out of the question. In case the sell signal forms, the first target for the downside movement will be the first level of 1.3836. Otherwise, the current buy signal will strengthen, however it is unlikely. The Chinkou Span is above the price graph, thus confirming the current buy signal. The Bollinger Bands show the sideways movement, the lines are diverging and directed sideways. The MACD is descending, thus indicating the current downwards motion.

Trading recommendations:
Currently, it is recommended to wait for the sell signal. In case this signal is strong then the first target for the downwards movement will be the level of 1.3836.

Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

[bhanu545]

The spot rate is currently testing the lower limit of its medium-term bullish channel and 1.6110 seems to start a rebound. However a break in this area would lead to a downward acceleration and initiate a new trend.

According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity on the levels of 1.6110 with a 1st objective of 1.6190, then 1.6220. A break in 1.6080 would invalidate this scenario.

Performed by Albert Fitoussi, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

[bhanu545]

On Tuesday the stock indices of the USA closed down amid the intensified investors’ concerns about the probable influence of the stimulus plan announced by the Federal Reserve System last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 60.09 points, or by 0.53%, to 11346.75. The Nasdaq Composite dropped by 17.07 points, or by 0.66%, to 2562.98. The Standard & Poor’s 500 lowered by 9.85 points, or by 0.81%, to 1213.40.
Bank of America shares strongly fell in price by 2.6%. Despite its plans to sell the shares of BlackRock by 25% more than it was planned, the banking giant does not have enough capital, which it should to raise by a year-end deadline. Chevron stocks lost 1.5%, after the oil giant announce its decision to purchase Atlas Energy for $3.2 billion in cash and wipe off a debt in amount of $1.1 billion. Atlas shareholders will receive $ 38.25 per share in cash that corresponds to a premium of 21% over the closing price on Monday. The shares of Atlas, which are not a DJIA component, rose in price by 34%. The background for the decline were the increasing concerns about the potential impact of the FRS plan to invest $600 billion in the economy, called as the quantitative easing-2 by Wall Street.
Ahead of the G20 summit, which starts in Seoul on Wednesday, the international controversy over the FRS measures has become more intense. According to the Tuesday data the wholesale inventories of the USA grew more than twice in September, than it was expected. Though the increase in inventory can be considered as the sign of companies’ confidence in the steady demand amid the further economic recovery, some investors are worried whether the companies have more inventory than they can sell.

Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

[bhanu545]

The spot rate has bounced off the lower limit of its medium-term downtrend channel in 1.5870 and is currently testing its intermediate resistance to 1.6020. A break of this area would release a significant potential.

According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate will have broken its resistance in 1.6020 with a 1st objective of 1.6110, then 1.6150. A break in 1.5990 would invalidate this scenario.


Performed by Albert Fitoussi, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

[bhanu545]

The spot rate has bounced off the lower limit of its medium-term downtrend channel and 1.3740 of its approach to this intermediate resistance at 1.3800. A break of this zone would allow it to reach the upper limit of its downtrend channel at 1.3910.

According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate will have broken its resistance in 1.3800 with a 1st objective of 1.3890, then 1.3910. A break in 1.3770 would invalidate this scenario.

Performed by Albert Fitoussi, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

[bhanu545]

A sharp and aggressive bearish wave below the euro/dollar pair peak levels which it has only reached about a week ago, at around 1.4270, the current minimum levels are at around 1.3700, due to the renewed concern related to the debt crisis in Europe. The technical picture of the pair shows that about a month ago the pair operated in a horizontal movement and stagnation after the last bearish wave, and now the pair operates in the lower range of stagnation and is expected to return to the top.
Also, the American relief plan, which is estimated to weaken the dollar against the euro, helps the pair from below, and also the positive deviation in the indicator that accompanies it secures the best outcome. The trigger to take long position on the pair is conditioned on logoff above 1.3805 resistance level. The break of this level will represent the first step of the upward trend, which has the potential to reach the 1.4600 resistance level, and thus conclude with the stage of stagnation.



Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

[bhanu545]

The spot rate is out of its medium term downtrend channel by breaking the upper limit of this one to 1.6110. A pull back is expected before a resumption of bullish.

According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity on the levels of 1.6110 with a 1st objective of 1.6180, then 1.6240. A break in 1.6080 would invalidate this scenario.

Performed by Albert Fitoussi, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

[bhanu545]

Breakout Buy level : 1.3773.
Strong Resistance : 1.3765.
Original Resistance : 1.3752.
Inner Sell Area : 1.3739.
Target Inner Area : 1.3706.
Inner Buy Area : 1.3673.
Original Support : 1.3660.
Strong Support : 1.3647.
Breakout Sell level : 1.3639.

After a breakout from 1.3685, this pair now tries to reach a new target at 1.3625. If this level is easily broken through by this pair today, then there is a possibility for this pair to set a new target at 1.3525 before it goes to 1.3500. However, be careful of the retracement to re-test the level of 1.3750 again.

Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010