D
dollarfinder
Guest
I just wanted to take a sec to get some experts opinions on the sharp decline of the USD this past month. I thought this might be a good topic for the Fundamental Anyalysis forum. As I'm sure you know the USD got hammered big time this past month, especially the last 10 days or so. I don't know if there is some fundamental problem I'm missing, or if the market is just in some self correcting mode, or perhaps its just fear taking over the market.
I could understand the USD getting hammered if the Fed decided to lower interest rates, or if the US economy was in the toilet, or if the US was attacked. However, none of those are true. The US posted near record gains across the board this past week, from home sales to the overall GDP, however all the data seemed to be ignored, and the USD posted near record losses. Every month the "experts" claim the US economy is "peaking" and will decline soon. However they are wrong month in, and month out. (I guess eventually the law of averages will kick in and they will call it right. You show me 6%+ unemployment, and I'll show you a declining economy)
Beranke has come out and said the Fed will be more data dependant on if they should raise interest rates, and the US continues having great data. The only differance is some months the data is good, and other months is really good. So I guess I just don't understand the reasoning behind the dollars decline.
The currency strategists seem to be Euro and especially Yen bullish. However the US has higher interest rates and a better economy. And it will take a year or more before the Euro and Yen's yield match the US's. So is there some other fundamental problem I'm missing with the US economy that everybody else is seeing, or something else that has caused the dollars sharp decline? Because all I'm hearing are mabye's. Maybe the Fed will stop raising rates, maybe ECB and the JCB will raise theirs. Maybe China would actually heed to world demand they let their currency fluctuate more. (Does anybody actually believe China will do what anybody in the world wants them to do? I think the odds are better for Iran to stop their nuclear program than China doing what the world wants) But "maybe's" and "will do's" are two entirely different things.
What say you?
I could understand the USD getting hammered if the Fed decided to lower interest rates, or if the US economy was in the toilet, or if the US was attacked. However, none of those are true. The US posted near record gains across the board this past week, from home sales to the overall GDP, however all the data seemed to be ignored, and the USD posted near record losses. Every month the "experts" claim the US economy is "peaking" and will decline soon. However they are wrong month in, and month out. (I guess eventually the law of averages will kick in and they will call it right. You show me 6%+ unemployment, and I'll show you a declining economy)
Beranke has come out and said the Fed will be more data dependant on if they should raise interest rates, and the US continues having great data. The only differance is some months the data is good, and other months is really good. So I guess I just don't understand the reasoning behind the dollars decline.
The currency strategists seem to be Euro and especially Yen bullish. However the US has higher interest rates and a better economy. And it will take a year or more before the Euro and Yen's yield match the US's. So is there some other fundamental problem I'm missing with the US economy that everybody else is seeing, or something else that has caused the dollars sharp decline? Because all I'm hearing are mabye's. Maybe the Fed will stop raising rates, maybe ECB and the JCB will raise theirs. Maybe China would actually heed to world demand they let their currency fluctuate more. (Does anybody actually believe China will do what anybody in the world wants them to do? I think the odds are better for Iran to stop their nuclear program than China doing what the world wants) But "maybe's" and "will do's" are two entirely different things.
What say you?
