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U.S. FEBRUARY NON-FARM PAYROLLS: MARCH 5 2010 13:30GMT
The survey week for the February U.S. jobs report fell in a period when blizzards affected parts of the U.S. and non-salaried workers who were unable to show up for work would be unpaid and hence treated as unemployment for data purposes. Historically, similar weather effects could have knocked off to 150,000 jobs in February and this could be followed by a positive reversal in March.
Median forecasts for the February non-farm payrolls (NFP) figure call for a loss of around 65,000 jobs (a bigger fall than initial predictions) and a tick higher in the unemployment rate from 9.7% to 9.8%. The last few months have seen the NFP result disappoint the markets but the January unemployment rate fell to 9.7% from 10% despite economists' expectations of a 10.1% rate. The range of forecasts for the NFP figure quite wide (-150,000 to +100,000), reflecting the uncertainty caused by the snowstorms, while analysts predict the unemployment rate to fall somewhere in the range of 9.5% to 10%, according to a Reuters poll.
Fed Chief Bernanke described the U.S. labour market as one of the problems facing the economic recovery in his semi-annual testimony to the House Finance Services Committee but also urged caution in interpreting the jobs data too much, especially due to the erratic swings.
CURRENCY OUTLOOK
Jobs growth has been negative throughout 2008 and 2009 with the exception of November 2009 which showed a gain of 64,000, while the unemployment rate has eased off the 26-year high of the 10.1% rate seen in October last year. The dollar's status as a safe haven currency will make moves in eur/usd, gbp/usd etc. harder to predict and the best currency pairs to trade are usd/jpy and eur/jpy with the bias being to sell yen on a good (U.S. positive report) and buy the yen if the numbers are disappointing.
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For comments and feedback, please email research@imperialfxonline.com
Please visit http://www.imperialfxonline.com or email promotion@imperialfxonline.com and apply for a free trial to access trading recommendations provided to financial institutions and individual investors, as well as market commentaries and other resources for traders.
U.S. FEBRUARY NON-FARM PAYROLLS: MARCH 5 2010 13:30GMT
The survey week for the February U.S. jobs report fell in a period when blizzards affected parts of the U.S. and non-salaried workers who were unable to show up for work would be unpaid and hence treated as unemployment for data purposes. Historically, similar weather effects could have knocked off to 150,000 jobs in February and this could be followed by a positive reversal in March.
Median forecasts for the February non-farm payrolls (NFP) figure call for a loss of around 65,000 jobs (a bigger fall than initial predictions) and a tick higher in the unemployment rate from 9.7% to 9.8%. The last few months have seen the NFP result disappoint the markets but the January unemployment rate fell to 9.7% from 10% despite economists' expectations of a 10.1% rate. The range of forecasts for the NFP figure quite wide (-150,000 to +100,000), reflecting the uncertainty caused by the snowstorms, while analysts predict the unemployment rate to fall somewhere in the range of 9.5% to 10%, according to a Reuters poll.
Fed Chief Bernanke described the U.S. labour market as one of the problems facing the economic recovery in his semi-annual testimony to the House Finance Services Committee but also urged caution in interpreting the jobs data too much, especially due to the erratic swings.
CURRENCY OUTLOOK
Jobs growth has been negative throughout 2008 and 2009 with the exception of November 2009 which showed a gain of 64,000, while the unemployment rate has eased off the 26-year high of the 10.1% rate seen in October last year. The dollar's status as a safe haven currency will make moves in eur/usd, gbp/usd etc. harder to predict and the best currency pairs to trade are usd/jpy and eur/jpy with the bias being to sell yen on a good (U.S. positive report) and buy the yen if the numbers are disappointing.
Imperialfxonline
For comments and feedback, please email research@imperialfxonline.com