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Forex Discussions
Trading Systems and Strategies
Should I Ditch My Trading Method? – Part 1
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[QUOTE="eyeball, post: 101720, member: 12398"] There is a logical belief that a given set of metric inputs will yield the same outcome each and every time that those same metrics,in the same order,appear,regardless of time frame or trading pair involved. Any experienced trader will tell you that, to the contrary,that is not always the case.If things were that simple there would be many more successful traders and many fewer losing steaks of the kind you describe in your posting. Perhaps we are trying to dance to the wrong tune. I believe that in all financial trading, and forex in particular, there are two prices that exist simultaneously. First there is the trading price ,the prices we see on our computers and order boards that is executable for buying or selling. Secondly, but equally important , is the intrinsic value price or fundamental price.The two prices track each other fairly closely most of the time, but are always moving either toward or away from each other. The basic question then is : Are the two prices moving toward or away from each other ? Obviously if the trade price is moving away from the fundamental price we want to take an opposite position toward the fundamental price and vice-versa.The problem now takes on a different dimension. How do we identify how the two prices are moving relative to each other rather than are are just trade prices moving higher or lower. The answer requires a larger format than this simple posting . The losing streaks that you describe are because traders take consecutive positions that are counter to the direction of the fundamental price movement of the trade vehicle they are employing. [/QUOTE]
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