Monday Market Tales

[Attila Farkas]

Revaluing Gold: How Washington Could Unlock $800 Billion Without Raising Debt​

For decades, gold has sat on the U.S. balance sheet at a token valuation of $42.22 per ounce—an official figure unchanged for generations—but mounting fiscal strain and a national debt exceeding $37 trillion suggest that number may soon change. In an unusual acknowledgment that gold still holds relevance in U.S. monetary policy, the Federal Reserve recently referenced the metal in an official report, aligning with draft versions of President Trump’s proposed Bitcoin Act circulating in both the Senate and House. These bills explicitly outline a plan to revalue America’s official gold reserves—a process that, if approved, could unfold as early as 2026—to fund new sovereign wealth and Bitcoin reserve initiatives, redefining gold’s statutory value under 31 U.S. Code §5117. Repricing gold to around $3,400 an ounce could instantly “create” nearly $800 billion in debt-neutral liquidity—capital that might finance these funds without formally expanding the federal debt. Supporters hail it as an innovative way to rebalance public finances, while critics warn it mirrors a sophisticated form of quantitative easing that could trigger inflationary shockwaves worldwide. Should the U.S. move forward, other central banks may follow, reanchoring their currencies to tangible assets even as fiat values continue to erode. Whether the goal is to ease America’s debt burden or to redefine reserves for a digital age, the implications are profound: gold—once dismissed as a barbarous relic—may again become the measure of monetary credibility, and the next chapter of U.S. finance could well be written in both gold and code.




Disclaimer: The information discussed reflects ongoing market speculation and legislative proposals. As of now, the U.S. government has not announced or approved any official revaluation of its gold reserves. Figures such as $800 billion in liquidity are based on independent analyst estimates, not formal projections from the Treasury or Federal Reserve.

 

[Attila Farkas]

WTI Slips as Supply Builds and Tensions Ease​

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is the U.S. benchmark for crude oil prices, serving as a global gauge for energy markets and economic sentiment. Traded primarily on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), WTI reflects supply-and-demand dynamics shaped by production trends, geopolitical risks, and global growth outlooks. As one of the world’s most actively traded commodities, its price movements often influence currencies, inflation expectations, and investor risk appetite across markets.

WTI crude oil lost altitude in early October, slipping nearly 5% during the week of October 6–10, 2025, as easing geopolitical tensions and mounting oversupply concerns erased midweek gains. Prices briefly climbed above $62 a barrel after OPEC+ announced a smaller-than-expected production increase, but optimism faded as the market shifted focus to rising global output and swelling inventories. By Friday, WTI had fallen to around $58.34, its lowest close since May, leaving crude roughly 5% lower for the week.

The sharp reversal came after a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas removed much of the war-related risk premium that had supported prices through September. Meanwhile, a renewed U.S.–China tariff threat from President Trump reignited fe

ars of weaker global demand, further weighing on sentiment. Growing evidence of an impending supply glut—from higher U.S. production and stockpiles to recovering exports from Venezuela and Iraq’s Kurdistan region—deepened the sell-off. Although U.S. fuel consumption briefly surged to its highest level since 2022, analysts said those gains were overshadowed by broader signs of slowing growth and ample supply.

As the week closed, the market’s focus turned to upcoming OPEC+ policy meetings and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts later this month, which could determine whether oil prices stabilize or slide further into year-end.

 

[Attila Farkas]

Crypto Markets Stumbled as Tariffs Triggered Volatility and Record Liquidations


As markets moved through the week of October 13–19, 2025, the cryptocurrency market endured intense volatility as a combination of geopolitical shocks and record liquidations unsettled investor confidence. Bitcoin tumbled from earlier highs near $122,000 to its lowest level in several months during a broad market sell-off, while Ethereum shed over 12%, briefly dipping to its weakest point since early summer before recovering modestly. The sharp decline followed U.S. President Trump’s surprise announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese tech exports, sparking over $19 billion in crypto liquidations—one of the largest on record. Although Bitcoin and Ethereum regained some ground by week’s end, they closed lower, with BTC near $107,000 and ETH around $3,850. Altcoins like XRP and Solana mirrored this pattern, plunging early in the week but rebounding on renewed risk sentiment and bullish options activity. Despite global macroeconomic pressures, including trade tensions, a U.S. government shutdown, and shifting Fed rate expectations, the total crypto market cap remained relatively stable around $3.65 trillion. Analysts noted that the week’s turbulence flushed out excess leverage, possibly setting the stage for more measured trading ahead, as crypto markets showed resilience amid heightened uncertainty.

 

[Attila Farkas]

Market Brief | Fed Decision & U.S.–China Trade Framework​

What you’re looking at: A two-part, fact-first snapshot of this week’s macro swing factors — the Federal Reserve’s rate call and the U.S.–China trade framework ahead of the Oct 30 meeting.

Federal Reserve — setup for Wed, Oct 29, 2025
The Federal Reserve will decide rates Wednesday amid a shutdown-driven data blackout, with economists expecting a 25 bp cut after September CPI rose 3.0% y/y, softer than the 3.1% forecast. Fed funds futures imply a ~97% chance of easing, which would lower the target range to 3.75%–4.00% and mark a second cut this year, as officials prioritize a cooling labor market while inflation remains contained. Chair Jerome Powell has said alternative public and private data suggest the outlook is little changed since September, and several banks expect another cut in December. A further step down in policy rates would pressure borrowing costs tied to the prime rate and has already helped pull the 30-year mortgage average to 6.19% — its lowest in a year — though much of the easing is seen as priced in.

U.S.–China — framework ahead of Thu, Oct 30, 2025
The U.S. and China agreed a framework for a trade deal ahead of the Xi–Trump meeting set for October 30, 2025, in South Korea, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying the pact would avert planned 100% tariffs on Chinese imports from November 1 and include a “final deal” on TikTok. Beijing would delay export controls on key minerals for a year and revive large U.S. soybean purchases, while both sides paused punitive actions to improve access to rare earths and narrow the trade gap. Chinese negotiator Li Chenggang said a “preliminary consensus” would now undergo internal approvals. The development eased fears of a global trade war threatening European car production, as the U.S. also pursued a tariff truce with Brazil following a “positive” Trump–Lula meeting amid recent tariff escalations.

Bottom line
This piece previews the week’s two headline drivers — the Fed decision (Wed, Oct 29, 2025) and the U.S.–China framework (Thu, Oct 30, 2025) — and explains what to watch and why it matters.