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[QUOTE="MikhailLF, post: 164324, member: 42242"] Morning Market Review 2019-05-13 09:00 (GMT+2) EUR/USD The European currency ended last week trading with moderate growth against the US dollar, updating local highs of 1 May. The euro was supported by data from Germany. Exports from the country in March increased by 1.5% MoM after falling by 1.2% MoM in February, with a forecast of a decline of 0.3% MoM. Imports for the same period increased by 0.4% MoM after declining by 1.6% MoM last month. Experts predicted growth by +0.5% MoM. Due to a sharp increase in exports, Germany’s trade balance in March rose from EUR 18.7 billion to EUR 20.0 billion, which turned out to be better than market expectations. More confident growth of the instrument is currently hampered by complications in the US-China trade negotiations. On Friday, the United States raised import duties on Chinese goods, as Donald Trump promised. China responded by raising duties on US goods for USD 110 billion total. At the same time, the parties intend to continue negotiations, the results of which are able to cancel the restrictions imposed. GBP/USD The British pound showed a slight decrease against the US dollar last Friday. In the first half of the day, the instrument was trading upwards, supported by strong UK publications. UK GDP showed growth in Q1 2019 by 0.5% QoQ and 1.8% YoY, which fully coincided with expectations. Over the past period, the UK economy showed growth of +0.2% QoQ and +1.4% YoY. The pound was also supported by industrial production data. In March, they showed an increase of 0.7% MoM and 1.3% YoY, which was significantly better than forecasts of +0.1% MoM and +0.5% YoY. During the Asian session on May 13, the instrument is trading upwards, waiting for new drivers to appear at the market. Interesting macroeconomic statistics is not expected to be published today, so the activity in the market will remain restrained. AUD/USD The Australian dollar shows flat trading paired with the US currency, consolidating near local lows of January 3, updated last Monday. A certain pressure on the position of the Australian dollar is exerted by the RBA comments on monetary policy published on Friday. Investors are somewhat disappointed with the extremely soft position of the regulator and fear the possible easing of interest rates if the economic situation in the country continues to deteriorate. In particular, the RBA lowered its GDP forecasts for 2020 from +3.00% YoY to +2.75% YoY. During the Asian session on May 13, the instrument is trading downwards. The development of "bearish" sentiment is facilitated by macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Home Loans issued in Australia in March decreased by 2.5% MoM after rising by 2.0% MoM last month. Analysts had expected a growth rate of + 2.3% MoM. The volume of investment loans for home construction in March also decreased by 2.7% MoM after rising by 0.9% MoM in February. USD/JPY The US dollar maintains a downward trend paired with the Japanese yen, but the "bearish" activity is gradually weakening. The situation around the US-China trade negotiations is not changing much, despite the fact that the US increased import duties on Chinese goods on Friday. The Bank of Japan, in turn, is still not satisfied with the growth rate of the Japanese economy and inflation. Last week, the head of the regulator, Haruhiko Kuroda, said that the Bank could go for an additional easing of monetary policy, if inflation continues to remain weak. Last Friday's macroeconomic statistics from Japan turned out to be ambiguous. At the end of March, Household Spending increased by 2.1% YoY after rising 1.7% YoY in February. In turn, the indicator of Average Cash Earnings for the same period dropped sharply by 1.9% YoY after falling by 0.8% YoY in February. Experts expected a decrease of only 0.5% YoY. Oil Oil prices show moderate growth, recovering after a decline at the beginning of the month. Tensions around the US-China trade negotiations, which escalated after Washington increased import duties on Chinese goods to 25%, continues to put pressure on the instrument. At the same time, both parties intend to continue trade negotiations. Donald Trump argues for the increase in import duties due to the violations from Beijing, so at the moment it is not entirely clear how the parties will be able to come to a consensus. Baker Hughes report on oil rigs number in the United States published last Friday showed a decrease in the number of drilling rigs from 807 to 805 units, which provided moderate support to prices. [/QUOTE]
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