Intraday Analysis by Forexsoup

[forexsoup]

Analysis for 01/03 UK & US Manufacturing PMI, CA BOC Interest Rate

11:30 UK Manuf. PMI 61.5(E) 62.0(P) 2.0(S) 50M
16:00 CA Interest Rate 1.0%(E) 1.0%(P) 0.25(S) 50M
17:00 US ISM Manuf. PMI 61.0(E) 60.8(P) 2.5(S) 50M


[11:30 EU Time GMT+2]

Manufacturing PMI is a leading indicator and it's usually
released during early month. Traders pay attention to this
release for surprises as this survey may help to shape the
general trend of the currency for the rest of the month.
Here is the forecast:

11:30 (EU Time) UK Manufacturing PMI Forecast 61.5 Previous 62.0
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 63.5 SELL 59.0


[16:00 EU Time]

Bank of Canada (BOC) will once again meet for their
Overnight Rate (Interest Rate) and the decision will be
announced today at 9:00am sharp. Along with the rate
decision, BOC Carney will also announce a Rate Statement to
further explain today's decision. Here's what analysts are
expecting:

16:00 (EU Time) CA BOC Rate Decision Forecast 1.00% Previous 1.00%
ACTION: USD/CAD SELL 1.25%


[17:00 EU Time]

ISM or Institute for Supply Management is releasing its PMI
(Purchasing Manager Index) today. As a leading indicator,
traders generally pay attention to this report for hints of
economic trend. Here's the forecast:

17:00 EU Time US ISM Manufacturing PMI Forecast 61.0 Previous 60.8
ACTION: 63.5 BUY USDJPY / 58.5 BUY EURUSD


by forexsoup

 

[forexsoup]

Analysis for 02/03 ADP NFP Employment

15:15 US ADP NFP 180K(E) 187K(P) 50K(S) 50M

E = Expected Release Figure
P = Previous Release Figure
S = Deviation or Surprise Factor
M = Expected Movement In Pips (if deviation is hit)

NEWS TRADING

Wed March 2, 2011

[15:15 EU Time]

ADP or Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP) is releasing
it's own estimate for the private sectors of NFP (Nonfarm
Payroll). This is high impact release and it's followed by
currency traders as they look for hints on Friday's NFP
official release. Here's the forecast:

15:15 EU Time US ADP NFP Change Forecast 180K Previous 187K
ACTION: 230K BUY USDJPY / 130K BUY EURUSD

by forexsoup

 

[forexsoup]

Analysis for 03/03 - UK Services PMI & EU ECB Rate Decision

11:30 UK Services PMI 54.0(E) 54.5(P) 2.5(S) 50M
14:45 EU ECB Rate 1.0%(E) 1.0%(P) .25%(S) 90M

NEWS TRADING

Thu March 3, 2011

[11:30 GMT+2]

We'll be trading the UK Services Purchasing Manager Index
today at 4:30am (NY Time). This is a leading indicator
similar to the Manufacturing PMI that was released early
this week, here's the forecast:

11:30 UK Services PMI Forecast 54.0 Previous 54.5
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 56.5 SELL 51.5

[14:45 GMT+2]

ECB (European Central Bank) will be rendering its rate
decision today, it is widely believed that ECB will keep
current rate unchanged. Here's the forecast:

14:44 EU ECB Rate Decision Forecast 1.00% Previous 1.00%
ACTION: EUR/USD BUY 1.25% SELL 0.75%

by forexsoup

 

[forexsoup]

22:00 (GMT+2) RBNZ Rate Decision

RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) will be releasing its interest rate decision today and it is widely expected that Gov. Bollard will cut rates by 25 basis points today to 2.75%; here is the forecast:

22:00 (GMT+2) RBNZ Rate Decision Forecast 2.75% Previous 3.00%
ACTION: AUDNZD SELL 3.00%

The Trade Plan
With current forecast from 10 out of 14 economists surveyed by Bloomberg agreeing that RBNZ is likely to cut rates during this meeting and with current market pricing in 100% of the effects of the cut, here are the likely scenarios:

1. RBNZ cuts rate to 2.75%: We should see relative calm market or very little reaction to the rate decision. However, if Gov. Bollard’s statements were to lean on the bearish side, market could take that as a sign to sell-off NZD.
2. RBNZ keeps rate at 3.00%: We should see an immediate appreciation of NZD against all majors. I’d be focusing on the AUDNZD pair as it is hovering around 17-year highs.

by forexsoup

 

[forexsoup]

Analysis for 10/03 UK BOE Interest Rate

BOE (Bank of England) will be rendering its interest rate decision today, and it would provide strong volatility in the market if BOE’s final decision turns out to be a surprise, here’s the forecast:

14:00 (GMT+2) UK Official Bank Rate Forecast 0.50% Previous 0.50%
APF (Asset Purchasing Facility) Forecast 200B Previous 200B
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 0.75% (Rate) SELL 225B (APF)

The Trade Plan
In the extremely unlikely event BOE hikes rate to 0.75%, we’ll buy GBP/USD immediately on a spike trade. Because of the level of this surprise, I think we’ll see a strong trend change for GBP in the next few weeks, so we should BUY and keep a small portion for larger gains…

On the other hand, if we get a surprise increase in the APF or better known as quantitative easing, it would send a bearish signal to the market, and we should SELL GBP/USD immediately.

UK’s BOE, Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is once again scheduled to release their interest rate decision today and the expectations are to keep both their official bank rates at 0.50% and APF (Asset Purchasing Facility) of 200 Billion Pound unchanged, according to all 61 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.


by forexsoup

 

[forexsoup]

Analysis for 11/03 CA Employment & US Core Retail Sales

14:00 CA Employment Change 26K(E) 69.2(P) 30K(S) 50M
15:30 US Core Retail 0.7%(E) 0.3%(P) 0.5%(S) 50M

NEWS TRADING

Fri March 11, 2011

[14:00 GMT+2]

We'll be getting the Canadian Employment Change release
number today, here is the forecast:

14:00 CA Employment Change Forecast 26K Previous 69.2K
Unemployment Rate 7.7%
ACTION: USDCAD BUY -5K SELL 55K

[15:30 GMT+2]

We’ll be getting the Core Retail Sales (and Retail Sales) figure out of U.S. today, as high impact news releases are concerned, Retail Sales makes up about 2/3 of U.S. GDP (economy)… Here’s the forecast:

15:30 US Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.7% Previous 0.3%
ACTION: 1.2% BUY USDJPY / 0.2% BUY GBPUSD

The Trade Plan
The plan to trade this release is straight forward. We are going to wait for 1.2% release or better to BUY USDJPY, or a 0.2% or worse to BUY GBPUSD… If we get a in-between release, we’ll need to look at the pre-release market condition and sentiment in order to make a decision, or just stay out of the market altogether.

You are here: Home / Forex News Trade / Forex News Trading US Core Retail Sales 03/11/11
Forex News Trading US Core Retail Sales 03/11/11
March 10, 2011 By Henry Liu Leave a Comment

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We’ll be getting the Core Retail Sales (and Retail Sales) figure out of U.S. today, as high impact news releases are concerned, Retail Sales makes up about 2/3 of U.S. GDP (economy)… Here’s the forecast:

8:30am (NY Time) US Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.7% Previous 0.3%
ACTION: 1.2% BUY USDJPY / 0.2% BUY GBPUSD

The Trade Plan
The plan to trade this release is straight forward. We are going to wait for 1.2% release or better to BUY USDJPY, or a 0.2% or worse to BUY GBPUSD… If we get a in-between release, we’ll need to look at the pre-release market condition and sentiment in order to make a decision, or just stay out of the market altogether.

We will trade this news release using after news retracement method, I will pay attention to both headline and Core Retail Sales figures, but my focus will be on the Core figure.

For more information on my trading method:
http://www.newsprofiteer.com/mentoring/mastermind-mentoring-system-webinar-1-of-3/

The Market
Core Retail Sales, or Retail Sales ex Auto is expected to be around 0.7%, and according to a survey of 63 analysts obtained by Bloomberg forecasts a headline Retail Sales of 1.0%.

J.C Penny and Macy’s Inc. were among retailers that beat most analysts’ estimates in the month of February, and if this is of any indication, we should expect a release figure near the forecast or better. Also the improvement in employment and in recent weather conditions should give a boost to the sales number.

Additional Thoughts
Since both releases (Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales) are scheduled together, if we get a conflict in the releases, we should stay out regardless whether or not we get our tradable deviation…

Pre-news Consideration
There should be no pre-news trading.

DEFINITION:
“(Retail Sales Core) Derivative of Retail Sales that excludes the Automobile Sales component. Automobile Sales make up roughly 25% of Retail Sales, but they can be very volatile from month to month and can distort the picture. Retail Sales with the exclusion of this volatile component is thought to be a better indicator of the underlying trend in consumer spending.”

by forexsoup