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HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.
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[QUOTE="HFM, post: 215948, member: 32345"] [B]Date : 16th December 2022. Market Update – December 16 – Ms Lagarde the most Hawkish of All.[/B] [URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/daily-market-update.png'][IMG]https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/daily-market-update-696x364.png[/IMG][/URL] Following the [B]FED’s[/B] hawkishness on Wednesday, the [B]ECB[/B] took it a step further. The central bank may have slowed down the pace of tightening moves, but the statement made very clear that this is not a sign that rates are anywhere close to the peak and that [B]there will have to be further “significant” tightening to bring rates to restrictive level,[/B] in order to dampen demand and thus help to bring inflation down. “This is not a pivot, we are in it for the long game”. [B]EUR[/B] rallied & [B]Yields[/B] on short term credit [B]erupted[/B] (2yr German yields moved 24.2bp – the most in a single day since 2008) and the [B]DAX[/B] lost –3.28%. 7 other central banks (including [B]BOE[/B]) also rose rates yesterday all commenting on the scourge of inflation. [B]A big Risk-Off day. [/B]The [B]AUD[/B] tanked 2.4%, the[B] Yen[/B] lost 1.7%, [B]Gold[/B] was down 1.7% and [B]USOil[/B] was off 1.8%. [LIST] [*]The [B]USD Index[/B] rallied from 104.80 blows to retake the key 105.00 band trades at 105.30 now. [B]US[/B] [B]Stocks [/B]tanked (-2.25%-3.2%) [B]Yields [/B]held at lows too as [B]Treasuries[/B] held on to gains, 10yr closed at 3.47% and are lower no at 3.45%. [B]Asian[/B] stocks are also lower in the aftermath of CB week ([B]Nikkei [/B]-1.87%) and more grim Chinese covid narratives…”Beijing death toll mounts as Covid sweeps through Chinese capital”, “Beijing urged to roll out Covid boosters to avoid 1mn deaths”. [*][B]EUR[/B] – rotates over [B]1.0600[/B] at 1.0650 now, having spiked to 1.0720 post ECB. [*][B]JPY[/B] – rallied from 135.25 lows, to spike over [B]138.00 [/B]and now trades at 137.30. This week’s low was 134.50. [*][B]GBP – [/B]Sterling collapsed from 1.2425 to 1.2150 as the BOE vote was split with 6 members agreeing on the 50bp hike and one voter wanting to go with 75bp, however 2 voted and will have argued strongly for no change. Markets hate uncertainty, but conversely, they also hate “group think”. The [B]FTSE100[/B] also closed -0.93%. UK Retail Sales today missed significantly (-0.4% decline vs a 0.3% gain). [*][B]Stocks – [/B]Wall Street collapsed ([B]NASDAQ[/B] worst performer -3.2%) – [B]US500 [/B]-99.57 (-2.5%) [B]3895[/B], and slips below the key pivot at 3900 again. Big movers included the biggest of all [B]APPL [/B]-4.69%, [B]META [/B]-4.47%, [B]NVAX [/B]-34.30%. FUTS trades at [B]3895[/B] now. [/LIST] [URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/2022-12-16_09-00-56.jpg'][IMG]https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/2022-12-16_09-00-56.jpg[/IMG][/URL] However poor the prospects of a Santa Rally may appear, history is still on its side. [URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/2022-12-16_08-49-54.jpg'][IMG]https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/2022-12-16_08-49-54.jpg[/IMG][/URL] [LIST] [*][B]USOil –[/B] Rallied to $77.54 again before falling to $75.25 and trades at [B]$75.70[/B] now. [*][B]Gold – [/B]Collapsed into the key $1780 and cannot hold that level today, trading at $1775. [*][B]BTC [/B]– Sentiment woes continue the biggest coin trades at $17.4k today. [/LIST] [B]Today – [/B]EZ, UK & US [B]Flash PMIs[/B], EZ HICP (Final), [B]Quadruple Witching.[/B] [URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/2022-12-16_09-03-11.jpg'][IMG]https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/2022-12-16_09-03-11.jpg[/IMG][/URL][URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/2022-12-16_09-03-45.jpg'][IMG]https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/2022-12-16_09-03-45.jpg[/IMG][/URL] [B]Biggest FX Mover[/B] @ (07:30 GMT) [B]AUDJPY [/B](-0.40%) muted moves in FX following yesterday’s huge moves. Fell from highs on Tuesday at [B]93.35[/B] to test [B]91.80 [/B]today. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative and falling. RSI 35.45 & falling, H1 ATR 0.177, Daily ATR 0.935. [URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/2022-12-16_09-58-53.jpg'][IMG]https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/2022-12-16_09-58-53.jpg[/IMG][/URL] [B]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/B] Click [URL='https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html'][B]HERE[/B][/URL] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click [URL='https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html'][B]HERE[/B][/URL] to register for FREE! [URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/'][B]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/B][/URL] [B]Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer:[/B] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [b]Date : 19th December 2022. Market Update – December 19 – Covid outweighs Reopening.[/b] [URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/daily-market-update.png'][IMG]https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/daily-market-update-696x364.png[/IMG][/URL] [LIST] [*]The [B]USD Index[/B] is hovering around 104.00 bottom, despite the renewed rise in the Treasury yield. [B]Global[/B] [B]stock[/B] markets made a [B]wobbly start[/B] to the final full trading week of 2022, with the prospect of [B]interest rates[/B] rising further next year taking the edge off festive cheer, and with concerns over[B] China Covid Outbreak.[/B] [B]Asian yields dipped[/B], while [B]US[/B] [B]Yields also [/B]held at lows as [B]Treasuries[/B] continued to rise, 10yr is up 3.1 bp at 3.51%. [B]Asian[/B] stocks have remained under pressure, with concern over China’s Covid count also weighing. [*]China officially reported its first coronavirus-related deaths since the unwinding of some of the strictest pandemic control measures earlier this month. [/LIST] [I][B]Chinese authorities have warned of three successive waves of Covid infections over the coming months, as cases continue to surge after the lifting of restrictions earlier this month. Only 42.3% for people aged 80 and above got the booster.[/B][/I] [LIST] [*][B]EUR[/B] – up at 1.0640 now & GBP stuck at 1.2160-1.22 area. [*][B]JPY[/B] – extends lower to [B]135.80[/B], with Yen be the biggest gainer of the day as speculation building that the Bank of Japan, which meets on Monday and Tuesday, is eying a shift in its ultra-dovish stance in future. [*][B]Elon Musk asked Twitter[/B] users to vote Sunday on whether he should step down as head of the social-media platform and pledged to abide by the results. Plus Twitter said it would no longer allow “free promotion of certain social media platforms” like Meta Platforms Inc’s META.O Facebook and Instagram, Mastodon etc. on its sites. [*][B]Stocks –[/B] The [B]JPN225[/B] declined more than -1%. [B]Hang Seng[/B] and [B]CSI 300[/B] are down -0.9% and -1.5% respectively. [B]US500[/B] dropped 2% last week (-20% for the year) while today US & European indixes are managing slight gains, [B]US500[/B] rose 0.1%. [/LIST] [URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/2022-12-19_09-52-58.jpg'][IMG]https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/2022-12-19_09-52-58.jpg[/IMG][/URL] [LIST] [*][B]USOil –[/B] drifts to $[B]74.65 [/B] [*][B]Gold – [/B]was steady at $1,793 [*][B]BTC [/B]– remained trading below $17,000. [/LIST] [B]Today – There is a heavy calendar ahead[/B] as releases are condensed ahead of Christmas on Sunday. Housing reports will highlight as that has been one of the sectors most impacted by the Fed’s tightening.[B] China[/B] is expected to deliver a key interest rate decision on Tuesday morning, after keeping the rate steady for three straight months. Japan as well. [B]Today[/B]: Germany Dec .Ifo survey, Eurozone Q3 labour market! [URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/2022-12-19_09-52-36.jpg'][IMG]https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/2022-12-19_09-52-36.jpg[/IMG][/URL] [B]Biggest FX Mover[/B] @ (07:30 GMT) [B]USDJPY [/B](-0.59%). MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative and falling. RSI 37 & falling, H1 ATR 0.33, Daily ATR 1.93. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b] Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. [/QUOTE]
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