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HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.
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[QUOTE="HFM, post: 209611, member: 32345"] [B]Date : 16th June 2022. Market Update – June 16 – Its all about the Banks.[/B] [URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/BOE.jpg'][IMG]https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/BOE-696x422.jpg[/IMG][/URL][URL='https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20220615a.htm']FOMC hiked rates 75 bps[/URL], 10-1 vote; further increases likely appropriate. [B]USD[/B] supported ([B]USDIndex[/B] 104.80), [B]Stocks[/B] higher despite Fed ([B]NASDAQ[/B] +2.5%, [B]Dow[/B] 1.4% &[B] S&P[/B] +2%). Despite the Fed effecting the biggest increase in[B] interest rates in 28 years,[/B] bonds and stocks rallied hard, underpinned by the fact Chair Powell said the 75 bps was an unusual move and would not be a common action, noting further hikes would be 50 bps or 75 bps. After hitting multi-month lows earlier this week, most regional currencies firmed on Thursday after US Bond [B]Yields [/B]and the USD retreated from multi-year highs a day earlier as investors welcomed the Fed’s decision. [B]It is clear that the Fed’s move will keep stagflation concerns alive. [/B]Asian markets traded mixed and US futures have pared earlier gains. [LIST] [*][B]USDIndex[/B] held above 104.40. [*][B]Υields 10-year[/B] Treasury yield climbed 1.5 bp to [B]3.3%[/B] while Australia’s bonds also moved up. [*][B]Equities[/B] – [B]GER40[/B] and [B]UK100[/B] futures are mixed with the [B]UK100[/B] down -0.2% ahead of the BoE decision, the GER40 up 0.3%. [*][B][URL='https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-bounces-around-tight-supply-offsets-china-recession-fears-2022-06-14/']Oil[/URL][/B] settled to [B]115.76[/B] after a steep drop, supported by tight oil supply (100k b/d highest since April 2020) and peak summer consumption, after the Fed sparked fears of slower economic growth and less fuel demand. [*][B]Golds at $1830 – safe-haven demand & inflationary hedge buying VS a higher interest rate.[/B] [*][B]Bitcoin[/B] down to $20,157. [*][B]FX markets[/B] – [B]EURUSD [/B]at 1.0409, [B]USDJPY [/B]back above 134,[B] Cable[/B] down at 1.2100 ahead of BoE. [/LIST] [B]BoE Preview:[/B] The BoE is still set to deliver another 25 bps rate hike this week, but stagflation risks are looking nowhere as serious as in the UK That should prevent the central bank from joining the “50 bp club” of central banks, but for now is unlikely to stop the BoE from sticking to the tightening path. The statement may sound somewhat more cautious now. Even the BoE’s own scenario suggests a technical recession next year and the latest batch of forecasts from the OECD and others highlight that the economy is under-performing, with the fallout from Brexit, the sanctions against Russia, and political turmoil all weighing on the growth outlook. PM Johnson managed to survive a confidence vote last week, but many feel that his days are numbered. Even within his own party the threat to unilaterally step back from the Northern Ireland protocol is not very popular and rather than uniting the nation behind Brexit, the government is facing an increasingly fragmented union. Nevertheless, with inflation running far above target, the BoE has little choice but to lift rates further for now, especially as house price inflation is also still running at double digits, and wage growth is picking up in tight markets. [URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/2022-06-16_10-39-06.jpg'][IMG]https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/2022-06-16_10-39-06.jpg[/IMG][/URL] [B]Biggest FX Mover[/B] @ (06:30 GMT) [B]GBPUSD [/B](-0.84%) down to 1.20 area again. Intraday, MAs bearishly crossed, MACD histogram declines but holds above 0, RSI 40 & sloping. H1 ATR at 0.00377 & Daily ATR at 0.01434. [B]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/B] Click [URL='https://www.hotforex.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html'][B]HERE[/B][/URL] to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click [URL='https://www.hotforex.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html'][B]HERE[/B][/URL] to register for FREE! [URL='https://analysis.hotforex.com/'][B]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/B][/URL] [B]Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer:[/B] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ [b]Date : 17th June 2022. Market Update – June 17 – Deeply underwater.[/b] [URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Stagflation-01.jpg'][IMG]https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Stagflation-01-696x365.jpg[/IMG][/URL] [B]USD[/B] drifted ([B]USDIndex[/B] 103.15) thanks to the hawkish SNB and BoE, and the potential for a shift from the BoJ. However, the [B]BoJ[/B] eventually left policy on hold & maintained its ultra-low rate settings today, despite looking increasingly like the odd one out. Yen sinks. [B]Stocks were crushed, [/B]hit by the [B]surge in yields [/B]([B]NASDAQ[/B] -4.4%, [B]Dow[/B] -2.4% &[B] S&P[/B] -3.25%). [B]Weakness in tech[/B] also weighed on USA100. [B]VIX[/B] rose to an intraday high of 34.43, but dipped to 33.44 late in the day, versus Wednesday’s 29.62. Treasuries are rallying and[B] yields [/B]are now richer ([B]2-year[/B] declined to 3.10%, [B]10-year[/B] at 3.25%. They were as high as 3.39% and 3.49% on the day). [URL='https://www.ft.com/content/bb506967-b56d-4513-9cde-331aa00bfe1e']European leaders back Ukraine’s bid to apply for EU membership[/URL]. [LIST] [*] [LIST] [*]US mortgage rate surged 55 bps to 5.78%, the biggest weekly jump since 1987. [*]US housing starts plunged -14.4% to 1.549 mln in May, permits fell to 1.695 mln. [*]US Philly Fed index dropped to -3.3 in June, 6-month outlook fell to -6.8. [*]US initial jobless claims slid -3k to 229k in June 11 week. [/LIST] [*][B]USDIndex[/B] rebounded to 104.25 from 103.15. [*][B]Υields 10-year[/B] climbed 5.5 bp to 3.25%. [*][B]Equities[/B] – Nikkei and ASX lost -1.8% today. [B][URL='https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61836179']Elon[/URL] Musk hints at layoffs[/B] in first meeting with Twitter employees. [*][B]Oil[/B] settled at [B][B]117.50 – [/B][/B]Oil set for weekly loss as traders weigh monetary tightening, although persisting supply tightness and [B]new sanctions on Iran[/B] limited the downside. [*][B]Gold [/B]retested [B]$1856[/B], currently lower at [B]$1845. Platinum and palladium also set for weekly drops.[/B] [*][B]Bitcoin[/B] steadily lower at $20k area. [*]Interest rate differentials between [B]Japan[/B] and the [B]US[/B] will continue to widen, which will keep pressure on the Yen, which at the start of the week was at the lowest level since [B]1998[/B]. [*][B]FX markets[/B] – [B]EURUSD [/B]at 1.0505, [B]USDJPY [/B]back above 134.67,[B] Cable[/B] at 1.2257 from 1.2405 highs. [*]Today: BoE Pill & Tenreyro speeches, EU HICP & Fed Chair Powell speech. [/LIST] [URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/2022-06-17_09-53-50.jpg'][IMG]https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/2022-06-17_09-53-50.jpg[/IMG][/URL] [B]Biggest FX Mover[/B] @ (06:30 GMT) [B]CHFJPY [/B](+1.54%) breaks 2013 peak. Intraday, MAs aligned higher, MACD lines extending northwards, RSI 76 & rising. ATR(H1) 0.0524 & ATR(D) at 1.506. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b] Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. [/QUOTE]
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