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Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental updates by Solid ECN
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[QUOTE="SOLIDECN, post: 215145, member: 80239"] [JUSTIFY]Morning Market Review EURUSD The European currency shows an attempt at corrective growth, testing the level of 1.0260 for a breakout. The EUR/USD pair is recovering after a noticeable decline the day before, as a result of which the single currency updated local lows from November 11. At the same time, market activity remains reduced, as trading participants are in no hurry to open new positions ahead of the publication of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting, as well as a block of macroeconomic statistics on the dynamics of Durable Goods Orders in October and business activity in November. Analysts expect new signals from the US regulator regarding future monetary policy. It is assumed that already in December, the Fed may go for some softening of its rhetoric and raise the interest rate by only 50 basis points. However, the value could be adjusted to higher levels than originally estimated as domestic inflation remains well above the 2.0% target. Uncertain macroeconomic statistics from Germany put pressure on the single currency yesterday. The Producer Price Index in October fell by 4.2% after rising by 2.3% in the previous month, while analysts expected an increase of 0.9%, and in annual terms, the dynamics slowed down from 45.8% to 34.5%, which also turned out to be worse than forecasts at the level of 41.5%. GBPUSD The British pound is trading with a weak upward trend, testing the level of 1.1850 for a breakout. The GBP/USD pair is recovering after a moderate decline at the beginning of this week; however, the activity of the "bulls" remains very low, as investors expect new drivers to appear on the market. The focus of traders is a block of macroeconomic statistics from the US on the dynamics of Durable Goods Orders, as well as the publication of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve, which will be released tomorrow. Traders will assess the likelihood of a slowdown in the tightening of monetary policy, as previously repeatedly stated by representatives of the regulator. In turn, the global vector for a gradual increase in the cost of borrowing is likely to continue, and therefore the American currency is in high demand. In the middle of the week, speeches by representatives of the Bank of England are also expected, including David Ramsden, Huw Pill and Catherine Mann. Moderate tightening of monetary policy is also expected from the British regulator in the future; however, the UK, in addition to raising interest rates, is trying to stabilize the economic situation by reducing government spending and increasing the fiscal burden. XAUUSD Gold prices show corrective growth, recovering from a four-day decline, as a result of which the instrument retreated from local highs to lows from November 10. The XAU/USD pair is testing 1745.00 for a breakout, waiting for new drivers to appear on the market. Demand for gold is gradually recovering as the publication of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting approaches, which may contain hints regarding future monetary policy. The market expects the regulator to allow some weakening of its position in December and raise the interest rate by only 50 basis points. In addition, the minutes will contain updated forecasts regarding economic growth rates and inflation dynamics for the near future. The pressure on the trading instrument is also exerted by the upcoming meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), which will be held on Wednesday, November 23. Forecasts suggest that the interest rate will be raised again by 75 basis points to 4.25%.[/JUSTIFY] [/QUOTE]
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