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Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental updates by Solid ECN
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[QUOTE="Solid ECN, post: 207409, member: 83167"] [JUSTIFY][img]https://i.ibb.co/8Pmbs5M/morning-market-review.png[/img] [/JUSTIFY] [HEADING=1][JUSTIFY]EURUSD[/JUSTIFY][/HEADING] [JUSTIFY]The European currency shows flat dynamics of trading against the US dollar during today's Asian session, consolidating near the level of 1.0840. The day before, the single currency showed active growth, having updated local highs from April 7, but closer to the end of the daytime session, the "bulls" lost some of their gains. The emergence of a strong "bullish" impetus was facilitated by the statements of the Vice President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Luis de Guindos, who made a "hawkish" statement about the possibility of raising the key interest rate in July. At the same time, the President of the European regulator, Christine Lagarde, last week spoke with the opposite point of view, reducing the likelihood of a rate hike in the coming months. One way or another, the ECB will have to consider a monetary tightening scenario as the region's economy faces rapid inflation, but it is important not to harm the economic recovery in the post-coronavirus period. Slight support for the single currency today was provided by statistics on consumer inflation in the eurozone. The Core Consumer Price Index from the ECB in March was revised from 3.0% to 2.9%. The monthly core inflation rate remained unchanged at 1.2%. The overall level of consumer price growth in March amounted to 7.4%, which is 0.1% lower than previous estimates. [/JUSTIFY] [HEADING=1][JUSTIFY]GBPUSD[/JUSTIFY][/HEADING] [JUSTIFY]The British pound traded with mixed dynamics against the US currency during the morning session, preparing to end the week with minimal changes. GBP/USD is testing 1.3020 for a breakdown, waiting for new drivers to appear on the market. Today, investors are focused on the statistics on the dynamics of Retail Sales in the UK. The data is likely to be negative, given the soaring consumer prices and the rather bleak prospects for further economic recovery. Also statistics from Markit on business activity in the manufacturing and services sector for April will be released during the day. Forecasts suggest a drop in Services PMI from 62.6 to 60 points, while the Manufacturing PMI may show a decline from 55.2 to 54.0 points. With the opening of the American session, the speech of the Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey is expected. In the meantime, the British statistics on the GfK Consumer Confidence are at the traders' disposal. In April, the indicator fell from -31 to -38 points, which turned out to be significantly worse than the expected decline to -33 points. [/JUSTIFY] [HEADING=1][JUSTIFY]NZDUSD[/JUSTIFY][/HEADING] [JUSTIFY]The New Zealand dollar shows an active decrease against the US dollar during the Asian session, developing a strong "bearish" momentum that formed the day before. NZD/USD is testing 0.6700 for a breakdown and updating local lows from February 28. The pressure on the instrument is again exerted by the growing US dollar, which is supported by the expectations of an early tightening of the monetary policy of the US Fed. The regulator expects to raise the interest rate immediately by 50 basis points already during its May meeting. In addition, the Fed is likely to launch a quantitative tightening program that will help reduce its balance sheet. Additional pressure on the NZ dollar is exerted by the macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand released yesterday. The Consumer Price Index in Q1 2022 accelerated from 1.4% to 1.8%, which turned out to be only 0.2% worse than market expectations. In annual terms, inflation reached a new record high of 6.9%, although analysts had projected an increase to 7.1%. [/JUSTIFY] [HEADING=1][JUSTIFY]USDJPY[/JUSTIFY][/HEADING] [JUSTIFY]The US dollar shows a slight decline against the Japanese yen in Asian trading, again testing the level of 128.00 for a breakdown. In recent days, USD/JPY has been trading with multidirectional dynamics, but the dollar is still holding near record highs, which were updated on April 20. Moderate support for the Japanese currency today is provided by relatively optimistic macroeconomic statistics from Japan. National Consumer Price Index in March accelerated from 0.9% to 1.2%, which was only 0.1% worse than analysts' forecasts. Excluding fresh food prices, inflation in the country accelerated from 0.6% to 0.8%. Jibun Bank Services PMI was also positive. In April, the indicator unexpectedly rose from 49.4 to 50.5 points, while market forecasts suggested its decline to 49 points. In turn, Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI still showed a decrease from 54.1 to 53.4 points, contrary to forecasts of growth to 55.7 points. [/JUSTIFY] [HEADING=1][JUSTIFY]XAUUSD[/JUSTIFY][/HEADING] [JUSTIFY]Gold prices are consolidating near 1950.00 during the Asian session, preparing to end the week with a moderate decline. The instrument continues to be supported by the existing geopolitical risks in connection with the conduct of a special military operation by Russia on the territory of Ukraine. In addition, the demand for the precious metal as a hedging instrument is growing against the backdrop of a sharp increase in inflationary pressures. On the other hand, the world's central banks have begun raising interest rates quite aggressively, which makes holding gold less attractive, since it does not generate interest income. In May, the market expects the US Federal Reserve to adjust the rate by 50 basis points. Today investors will focus on a block of macroeconomic statistics from the US on business activity in the manufacturing and services sector from Markit for April. Analysts' forecasts are neutral, and therefore significant fluctuations in the US currency against their background are not expected.[/JUSTIFY] [/QUOTE]
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