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Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental updates by Solid ECN
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[QUOTE="Solid ECN, post: 207126, member: 83167"] [JUSTIFY][ATTACH type="full"]21210[/ATTACH][/JUSTIFY] [HR][/HR] [JUSTIFY][/JUSTIFY] [HEADING=1][JUSTIFY]EURUSD[/JUSTIFY][/HEADING] [JUSTIFY]The European currency shows a moderate decrease during the Asian session, testing the level of 1.0800 for a breakdown. EUR/USD is developing a fairly strong downward momentum, formed the day before, when the focus of investors was on the results of the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB). As expected, the regulator did not change the monetary policy parameters and kept the rate at zero. At the same time, officials signaled the start of a gradual reduction in bond purchases under the quantitative easing (QE) program from the current 40B euros to 30B euros in May and 20B euros in June, after which the program will probably be completed in Q3. By this time, the ECB will also think about raising the interest rate, although analysts' opinions on this matter differ. The President of the European regulator, Christine Lagarde, also noted the high inflation rates in the region, which has a significant impact on the economy and makes it necessary to revise the previous criteria for changing the vector of monetary policy. [/JUSTIFY] [HEADING=1][JUSTIFY]GBPUSD[/JUSTIFY][/HEADING] [JUSTIFY]The pound is trading in different directions, consolidating near 1.3060. The day before, the British currency was actively declining, retreating from its local highs of April 5, and also offsetting a noticeable growth on Wednesday, when the instrument managed to find support in the expectations of traders regarding further tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of England. Data released the day before reflected the growth of the Consumer Price Index in March to 7% year on year, which became a new record high and was slightly higher than experts' expectations at the level of 6.7%. Today the markets are closed due to Good Friday, and therefore the activity remains quite low. In addition to the events in the geopolitical arena, investors are focused on a block of macroeconomic statistics from the US, published the day before. Retail Sales in March slowed down from 0.8% to 0.5%, which turned out to be worse than market expectations at the level of 0.6%. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended April 8 increased from 167K to 185K, exceeding preliminary estimates at 171K. At the same time, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index showed positive dynamics in April, having strengthened from 59.4 to 65.7 points, while the forecast was for a decrease to 59 points. [/JUSTIFY] [HEADING=1][JUSTIFY]AUDUSD[/JUSTIFY][/HEADING] [JUSTIFY]AUDUSD shows a moderate decline during the Asian session, testing 0.7400 for a breakdown. The instrument is preparing to finish yet another trading week in the "red" zone; however, due to the active growth of the Australian currency last Tuesday, the total losses can be characterized as insignificant. In addition to the rising US dollar, quotes are under pressure from weak macroeconomic statistics from Australia, published the day before. Employment Change in March was recorded at around 17.9K, which was below market expectations at the level of 40K and significantly inferior to 77.4K shown in February. At the same time, Full-Time Employment decreased from 121.9K to 20.5K, while the dynamics of Part-Time Employment improved from -44.5K to -2.7K. The Unemployment Rate remained at 4%, while many experts were confident that it would stay below this psychological level. At the same time, Consumer Inflation Expectations rose from 4.9% to 5.2% in April, while analysts had projected a decline to 4.6%. [/JUSTIFY] [HEADING=1][JUSTIFY]USDJPY[/JUSTIFY][/HEADING] [JUSTIFY]USDJPY is testing 126.30 for a breakout, renewing all-time highs. The instrument has been developing an active uptrend since the beginning of March, while the dollar significantly corrected only once, at the end of last month. The weakness of the yen is primarily due to the position of the Bank of Japan, which maintains an ultra-loose monetary policy and implements an "endless quantitative stimulus" program without setting limits on bond purchases. As a result of these steps, the national currency is rapidly depreciating, but this has a positive effect on exports, as it increases the competitive advantages of Japanese goods in the market. In addition, a weak yen could help the economy fight the deflation problem. At the same time, Japan is facing the issue of a rapid depreciation of the savings of its citizens, which may lead to a decrease in living standards if inflation begins to rise rapidly against the backdrop of a global trend of rising energy prices. [/JUSTIFY] [HEADING=1][JUSTIFY]XAUUSD[/JUSTIFY][/HEADING] [JUSTIFY]Gold prices are slightly reduced during the Asian session, consolidating near 1970.00. The development of "bearish" sentiment on the instrument is primarily facilitated by technical factors of correction at the end of the week. In addition, many markets are closed on Friday due to the celebration of Good Friday, so the wave of closing current long positions began to be traced even the day before. Meanwhile, demand for the metal remains high enough as an inflation hedge. The crisis around Ukraine is still in its acute phase, despite the unprecedented sanctions pressure from Western countries on the Russian economy. World central banks are hastily tightening their monetary policy in an attempt to contain a sharp increase in consumer prices, which is also having a huge negative impact on the pace of global economic recovery during the retreat of the COVID-19 pandemic.[/JUSTIFY] [/QUOTE]
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