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Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental updates by Solid ECN
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[QUOTE="Solid ECN, post: 206881, member: 83167"] [HEADING=1][JUSTIFY]Morning Market Review[/JUSTIFY][/HEADING] [HR][/HR] [JUSTIFY][B]EURUSD[/B] The European currency shows the downward dynamics of trading against the US dollar during the Asian session, opening with a slight positive gap. The "bears" leveled the gap at the opening, and the instrument itself is again testing the level of 1.0880 for a breakdown. The general situation on the markets is changing little, and the demand for risky assets is still under pressure. Despite the growing sanctions pressure, the Russian Federation continues to conduct a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine, and peace negotiations have almost completely faded into the background. Last week, the EU countries agreed on a new, fifth package of sanctions, which, among other things, provides for new restrictions on the import of Russian coal: a complete ban on the purchase, import or transit of solid fuel. Part of the restrictive measures will come into effect from the summer of 2022, as the EU wants to prevent the situation from worsening with rising prices, which are currently reacting sharply to the dynamics in the commodity markets. In turn, the key issue with the import of oil and natural gas is still open. The European authorities have not yet developed a unified attitude towards the embargo on Russian "black gold", although certain steps are being taken in this direction. Meanwhile, market participants are watching the results of the presidential elections in France. After counting 97% of the ballots in the first round, incumbent President Emmanuel Macron takes the lead with 27.6% of the vote. Second place goes to the head of the right-wing National Rally party, Marine Le Pen. The second round of elections will take place on April 24.[/JUSTIFY] [HR][/HR] [JUSTIFY][B]GBPUSD[/B] The British pound traded with a downtrend against the US currency during the morning session, testing 1.3000 for a breakdown. The instrument traded confidently below this level in November 2020. Activity on the instrument remains subdued, as market participants expect a large number of publications of macroeconomic statistics from the UK during the week. Thus, data on GDP dynamics and Industrial Production rates for February were released today. On Tuesday, the March report on the labor market will be published in the UK. Analysts' current forecasts are very optimistic and suggest, in particular, a steady increase in wages from 4.8% to 5.7%. On Wednesday, the focus of investors will be on the March statistics from the UK on the dynamics of Producer and Consumer Price indices. Analysts expect annual inflation in the country to accelerate from 6.2% to 6.7% in March, which in turn will put pressure on the positions of the Bank of England, which may return to tightening monetary policy.[/JUSTIFY] [HR][/HR] [JUSTIFY][B]NZDUSD[/B] The New Zealand dollar shows ambiguous dynamics of trading against the US dollar during today's Asian session, consolidating near the opening levels and 0.6835. The pressure on NZD/USD is exerted by weak macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand. Electronic Card Retail Sales in March decreased by 1.3% after a sharp decline of 7.8% a month earlier. Analysts had expected negative dynamics to remain at -0.6%. In annual terms, sales decreased by 0.5% after rising by 1.1% in February. Markets projected a sharp 9.7% growth. Later, buying activity on the instrument was supported by encouraging statistics from China. The Consumer Price Index in China in March showed an increase of 1.5%, accelerating from 0.9% shown in February. The real dynamics turned out to be noticeably better than analysts' forecasts at 1.2%. Another "bullish" factor is the new EU sanctions policy on the Russian economy. In particular, New Zealand coal exporters positively perceived the possibility of introducing restrictions on the supply of solid fuel from the Russian Federation this summer. Currently, New Zealand exports more than a third of all coal mined in the country.[/JUSTIFY] [HR][/HR] [B]USDJPY[/B] [JUSTIFY]The US dollar shows strong growth against the Japanese yen during trading in Asia, continuing the development of the "bullish" trend from April 1. At the moment, USD/JPY is updating local highs from March 28 and is again preparing to test strong resistance at 125.00. At the beginning of the week, the "bulls" are very optimistic, but the growth factors change slightly: the US dollar is still receiving support as a "safe" asset, becoming more attractive to investors as the US Federal Reserve tightens its monetary policy. Earlier, representatives of the regulator spoke in favor of raising the rate by 50 basis points at once during the May meeting. At the same time, as expected, a program of quantitative tightening may be launched in order to reduce the balance sheet of the Fed. In turn, the Bank of Japan is far from a possible start of tightening monetary policy. The macroeconomic statistics released in Japan on Friday provided little support to the yen. Eco Watchers Current Situation Index in March rose from 37.7 to 47.8 points, which turned out to be 10 points better than market expectations. Eco Watchers Outlook for the same period strengthened from 44.4 to 50.1 points, while the forecast was 43.5 points.[/JUSTIFY] [HR][/HR] [JUSTIFY][B]Gold[/B] XAUUSD prices show a slight decline at the beginning of the week, consolidating near local highs from March 31. Moderate pressure on the instrument is exerted by the growth in the yield of US Treasury bonds, which compete with the precious metal for the title of safe investment. During the morning session, 10-year US Treasuries yielded 2.774% after closing at 2.715% on Friday. Another negative factor for gold is the expectation of further tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. The rate increase is expected during the May meeting, and it can be increased immediately by 0.5%. At the same time, the regulator plans to launch a quantitative tightening program that will help reduce the Fed's balance sheet.[/JUSTIFY] [/QUOTE]
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