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Technical Analysis
Elliott Wave Analysis by EWF
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[QUOTE="Elliottwave-Forecast, post: 202406, member: 40858"] $MICEX Russian Index Longer Term Cycles and Bullish Trend The Russian index has trended higher with other world indices since inception. The index remained in a long term bullish trend cycle into the December 2007 highs. It made a sharp correction lower in 2008 that lasted until October 2008 similar to other world indices. That is where the index corrected the whole decades long bullish cycle. Firstly from the October 2008 lows the index rose into the April 2011 highs. Then the index saw an almost 3 year long correction of that cycle into the March 2014 lows. That pullback corrected the whole cycle up from the 2008 lows. From there to the January 2020 highs ended a cycle up from the March 2014 lows. The analysis continues below the chart. Monthly Chart [URL='https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/IMOEX_2021-12-06_M.png'][IMG]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/IMOEX_2021-12-06_M-1024x506.png[/IMG][/URL] Secondly I would like to mention this overall price movement in the bullish cycles leaves the index in a couple of different scenarios. One way to view it from an Elliott wave perspective is the January 2020 highs was the end of a larger degree third wave. I do not prefer this because it suggests after a few more new highs back above the January 2020 highs the index will suffer a huge correction bigger than ever seen before. Thirdly in conclusion. The positive progression of mankind is reflected in equity indices. I do believe in the technical indicators that suggests I saw enough pain in the dips into the 2008 as well as the March 2020 lows that should eventually prove to be longer term cycle lows. I think the index has a longer term series of nested wave ones and twos. As suggested on the chart I think the cycle from the March 2020 lows should continue higher. In the near term whether if it further bounces toward the October 2021 highs or not, while below there a pullback can correct the cycle up from the March 2020 lows in 3, 7 or 11 swings. I expect the index will remain above there for a long time progressing higher. Source: [URL]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/micex-russian-index-longer-term-cycles-and-bullish-trend/[/URL] [automerge]1638895584[/automerge] Commodity currencies have been in the decline this year against US Dollar as a result of market's expectation of the Fed's rate hiking cycle. A falling Australian Dollar will make imported products more expensive, resulting in price increase and adding to existing inflationary pressure. The higher the inflation rate, the faster the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) need to bring forward the first increase in cash rate. The Melbourne Institute monthly inflation gauge rose by 0.3 per cent in November to be up 3.1 per cent on the year. A sustained build up in inflation will bring forward the tightening cycle which then should eventually provide support in the Australian Dollar. In the meantime however, the Australian Dollar can continue to see selling pressure against US Dollar as a result of the divergence in monetary policy. [HEADING=3]AUDUSD Daily Elliott Wave Chart[/HEADING] [URL='https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/AUDUSD-Bearish-sequence20211207150312.jpg'][IMG]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/AUDUSD-Bearish-sequence20211207150312.jpg[/IMG][/URL] Daily chart of AUDUSD above shows a 5 swing incomplete sequence from February 25, 2021 high favoring further downside in the pair. The entire decline can be counted as a double three Elliott Wave structure where wave ((W)) ended at 0.7106. Pair then rallied and ended wave ((X)) at 0.7556. It has resumed lower and broken below the third swing, suggesting the next leg lower has started. This pattern suggests further downside in the pair as long as rally fails below 0.755. Potential target lower for swing #7 is 100% - 123.6% Fibonacci extension of the swing #3 which comes at 0.645 - 0.666. [HEADING=3]AUDUSD 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart[/HEADING] [URL='https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/11AUDUSD-6020211207095154.jpg'][IMG]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/11AUDUSD-6020211207095154.jpg[/IMG][/URL] 1 Hour Asia chart above shows that pair could see another leg lower to complete wave 5 which then should end wave (A) and complete cycle from October 29, 2021 high. Afterwards, pair should rally in wave (B) to correct cycle from October 29 high before turning lower again. Alternatively, pair might have already ended wave (A) and in the process of doing larger degree rally to correct cycle from October 29, 2021 high before it resumes lower again. Source: [URL]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/forex/audusd-shows-bearish-sequence/[/URL] [automerge]1638895629[/automerge] Equitable Holdings Inc (EQH) operates as a diversified financial service through four segments, Individual retirement, Group retirement, Investment management & research & Protection solutions. It based in New York & trades under $EQH ticket at NYSE. It comes under financial services sector as Insurance-diversified industry. [HEADING=3]EQH - Elliott Wave Daily View:[/HEADING] Since March-2020 low at $9.89, it started the higher high sequence & made ATH at $36.09. The sequence higher was clearly the part of impulse cycle up, which favored ended in November-2021 & expect to correct lower. [URL='https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/EQH-D2-1.png'][IMG]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/EQH-D2-1-1024x504.png[/IMG][/URL] It started higher high sequence from March-2020 low at $9.89. It favored ended ((1)) at $24.19 high on 6/05/2020, while below there ((2)) ended at $17.33 low on 9/24/2020. The ((2)) was 0.5 retracement against the previous cycle. It favored ended ((3)) at $35.46 high on 5/06/2021. The ((4)) wave ended at $27.54 low on 9/20/2021 as slightly below 0.382 retracement as double correction. While above there it favored ended ((5)) at $36.09 high on 11/05/2021 as I red within the cycle from March-2020 low. Currently it proposed doing zigzag correction in II before it resume the next leg higher. Alternatively, it can do double correction lower in II, while bounce fails below $36.09 high. We like to buy the dips in 3, 7 or 11 swing at an extreme areas when seen. In shorter cycle, below $36.09 high, it favored ended ((A)) at $30.57 low on 12/01/2021. While dips remain above $30.57 low, it expect to correct higher in ((B)), which ideally should fail below $36.09 high & extend lower in ((C)) of II to end the correction against March-2020 low. Source: [URL]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/elliott-wave-view-eqh-expect-short-term-correction/[/URL] [automerge]1638895708[/automerge] In the last years, the renminbi made a pause in his attempt to get stronger against USD dollar. On February 2014, renminbi found support at 6.0153 and from there it made a perfect zig – zag correction structure to the equal legs 7.1964 in June 2020. After that, the USDCNH continue with the downtrend. [HEADING=2]Renminbi Daily Chart[/HEADING] [URL='https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/USDCNH20211206174323.png'][IMG alt="Renminbi Daily Chart"]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/USDCNH20211206174323.png[/IMG][/URL]The wave (a) began at 6.0153 ending wave I at 6.2710. Pullback wave II finished at 6.1000 getting a strong rally to 6.7315 in 5 swings completing the wave III. Then another correction took place as wave IV ending at 6.4404; as result, a last push made wave V and completed wave (a) almost hit 7.00 dollars at 6.9854. (If you want to learn more about Zig - Zag Structure and Elliott Wave Theory, please follow these links: Elliott Wave Education and Elliott Wave Theory). After completing 5 waves impulse, we have a huge drop to 6.2359 developing a double correction structure to end wave (b). The volatility did not leave things like that an enormous rally took place in the beginning of wave (c). Wave I of (c) ended at 6.9797 gained almost 12% in 7 months. The next corrective movement a wave II completed at 6.6704 and bounce reached 7.1664, overtaking 7 dollars, to complete wave III. Last correction Wave IV ended at 6.8457 and wave V finished at 7.1974 completing wave (c) as an ending diagonal structure. [HEADING=2][B]Elliott Wave Theory Zig - Zag Structure[/B][/HEADING] [URL='https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Graphic-20.jpg'][IMG alt="Zigzag Structure"]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Graphic-20.jpg[/IMG][/URL] This zig zag structure has taken place, it is telling us that the renminbi should appreciate against the USD in long term. As a correction pattern means the bearish trend must continue. In June 2020, the pair dropped again to 6.3526 and the structure is incomplete to determinate exactly what is the next step for the renminbi. Possible is doing a leading diagonal and that pattern we are drawing in the chart. If that structure plays out we should see a bounce before continue with downtrend. If the leading diagonal does not play out, only one thing is clear, for long term traders the USDCNH, certainly, must break 6.0153 in sometime. Source: [URL]https://elliottwave-forecast.com/forex/renminbi-appreciate-usd-long-term/[/URL] [/QUOTE]
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