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Daily Market Outlook by Solid Trust Markets
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[QUOTE="SolidTrustMarket, post: 104056, member: 36800"] [b]Daily Market Outlook 15 June[/b] [img]https://scontent-lhr3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xtl1/v/t1.0-9/12717510_174118869626335_4845820293159483711_n.jpg?oh=2a23c6b13a613b005f9fef79fea074e7&oe=576A6387[/img] Wall Street dropped for a fourth straight session on Tuesday as central bank policymakers weighed the health of the U.S. economy and investors worried about an upcoming vote in Britain on whether to leave the European Union. Investors launched a late-day rally but the major indices still ended with losses. The Federal Reserve will conclude its two-day June monetary policy meeting, with a closely-watched interest rate decision on Wednesday afternoon. While the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is not expected to raise short-term interest rates at the meeting, Fed chair Janet Yellen could provide clues on whether the U.S. central bank could lift rates before the end of the fall. The FOMC has left the target range of its benchmark Federal Funds Rate steady at a level between 0.25 and 0.50% at each of its first three meetings this year. Adding to angst on Wall Street, recent opinion polls indicated growing support for Britain's exit from the European Union, creating a rush by investors to safe-haven assets like gold and the yen. Traders see virtually no chance of a rate hike on Wednesday, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. They are pricing in a 21 percent chance of a rate hike in July, a 40 percent chance in September and a 59 percent chance in December. The yen ticked higher in early Asia on Wednesday on continued safe-haven demand while the pound trended weaker with attention focused on the tone of the latest Federal Reserve statement on policy today and opinion polls ahead of a vote on U.K. membership in the European Union. Investors also continued to closely monitor poll results in the U.K., which increasingly show a British public shifting their support to the "Leave," campaign, ahead of next week's controversial Brexit referendum. Foreign exchange traders continued to keep a close eye on poll results in the U.K., which increasingly show a British public shifting their support to the "Leave," campaign, ahead of next week's controversial Brexit referendum. An online poll from TNS said a Leave vote widened its lead over a vote to "Stay" by a 47-40 margin, as Rupert Murdoch's Sun newspaper backed a campaign to depart from the European Union. Another survey, a YouGov poll for The Times, found that the "Leave" vote held a 46-39% lead, while 11% remained undecided. It came days after a popular columnist from The Telegraph broke ranks with the British establishment and supported a vote to leave. Last week, the Remain campaign held a slight one point lead in the same YouGov poll. In recent weeks, a number of top political leaders and economists including U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron, Germany chancellor Angela Merkel and International Monetary Fund managing director Christine Lagarde have issued stark warnings in recent weeks on the ramifications a British departure from the EU could have on the global economy at large. On the other end, House of Commons Leader Chris Grayling, Culture Secretary John Whittingdale and former London mayor Boris Johnson have shown support for the Leave movement. The dollar held onto gains against the other major currencies on Tuesday, as the release of upbeat U.S. retail sales data boosted optimism over the strength of the economy and as investors eyed the Federal Reserve’s monthly policy meeting due to begin later in the day. The U.S. Commerce Department said that retail sales increased by 0.5% last month, compared to the forecast for a rise of 0.3%. Retail sales for April rose 1.3%. Core retail sales, which exclude automobile sales, increased by 0.4% in May, in line with forecasts. Core sales in April gained 0.8%. In a separate report, the Labor Department said import prices increased 1.4 percent last month, the largest rise since March 2012, after advancing 0.7 percent in April. In the 12 months through May, import prices fell 5.0 percent, the smallest decline since November 2014. Oil prices fell for a fourth straight day on Tuesday, dropping 1 percent as nervousness over Britain's vote next week on whether to leave the European Union overshadowed signs of a return to health for crude after a two-year glut. The referendum-related concerns eclipsed an upbeat forecast for oil demand growth from the International Energy Agency (IEA), which said the oil market is essentially balanced after two years of surpluses. [IEA/M] On Monday, OPEC forecast that the oil market would be more balanced in the second half of 2016 as outages in Nigeria and Canada help to speed erosion of a supply glut. The market was awaiting direction from the American Petroleum Institute (API) data later in the day that was forecast to show U.S. crude inventories fell for a fourth straight week. [/QUOTE]
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