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Daily Market Analysis from Hotforex Broker
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[QUOTE="HFM, post: 202202, member: 32345"] [B]Date : 1st December 2021. Market Update – December 1 – Taper gets a boost & Transitory gets “retired”.[/B] [URL='https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/daily-market-update.png'][IMG]https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/daily-market-update-696x364.png[/IMG][/URL] [I][B]Powell “retires”[/B] [/I][B]Transitory in light of Omicron & surprisingly suggests faster taper – Stocks tank, Dollar& Yields rise on faster tightening expectations.[/B] [LIST] [*]USD ([B]USDIndex 95.90[/B]) back down from leap to [B]96.60[/B] on Powell testimony. Saw fresh wave of risk aversion as[B] Treasuries sold off, yields spiked[/B] (particularly the 2yr) , [B]Stocks[/B] fell significantly with [B]USA100[/B] down over -2.4% ([B]APPL[/B] bucked the trend +3.16%) [B]USA500 [/B]-1.90% (-88pts) [B]4567[/B] & [B]USA30[/B] off 652 pts or -1.86%. [B]Consumer confidence[/B] saw a slump in the headline, and a rise to a 13-year high in the inflation component. The [B]Chicago PMI[/B] fell to 61.8. [B]Home prices[/B] increased to fresh record peaks. [*][B]US Yields[/B] 10-year rates were down over 7 bps to 1.41% before closing at [B]1.443% [/B]before recovring to [B]1.468%[/B] now. [*][B]Asian Markets [/B]– Equities – Topix and Nikkei are currently up 0.4%, the Hang Seng bounced 1.1% and the CSI 300 is up 0.1%. The ASX, which outperformed yesterday, dropped back -0.3%. Data over night – [B]Japan’s[/B] manufacturing [B]PMI[/B] came in [B]stronger than expected[/B] and while [B]China’s[/B] private [B]PMI[/B] reading signalled [B]stagnation[/B] at [B]49.9[/B], that was compensated somewhat by the stronger than expected official manufacturing PMI released yesterday. [B]AUD[/B] [B]GDP [/B]was not as bad as expected -1.9% vs -2.7% & 0.7% last time. [*][B]USOil[/B] – continues under pressure, down to [B]$64.08 [/B](14-week lows) yesterday – recovered to test [B]$68.00[/B] today – [B]expectations continue to grow that OPEC+,[/B] will put on hold plans to add 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of supply in January at their meeting tomorrow. [*][B]Gold[/B] finally some intra-day volatility – Powell surprise spiked to [B]$1808 –[/B] before testing [B]$1770[/B] with a couple of hours, back to [B]$1788[/B] now. [*]FX markets – Yen rallied [B]USDJPY[/B] dipped to [B]112.50[/B], back to [B]113.40[/B] now, [B]EURUSD [/B]now [B]1.1326[/B] & [B]Cable [/B]steadied to [B]1.3300-1.3330. [/B] [/LIST] [B]European Open[/B] – December 10-yr Bund future down -11 ticks at 172.26, slightly outperforming versus Treasury futures. Central bankers may be getting more nervous about inflation outlook, but Omicron clearly is clouding over growth outlook & in Europe at least that will boost the arguments of the cautious camp at the central banks. US yields remain firmly below the levels seen before the new virus variant hit the headlines & sentiment is likely to remain jittery, even if stocks are set to back up from yesterday’s lows, with DAX & FTSE 100 future posting gains of 0.9% and 0.7% respectively & a 1.4% jump in the NASDAQ leading US futures higher. Data releases today kicked off with a big miss for German Retail sales (-0.3% vs 1.0%), higher UK house prices & firmer CPI from CHF. [B]Today [/B]– [B]PMIs[/B] (EZ & UK),US [B]Markit[/B] Final Manufacturing PMIs, US [B]ADP[/B] and [B]ISM[/B] Manufacturing PMI, JTC and OPEC meetings, BoE’s [B]Bailey[/B] and Fed’s [B]Powell & Yellen [/B]testify. [URL='https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/2021-12-01_09-53-37.jpg'][IMG]https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/2021-12-01_09-53-37.jpg[/IMG][/URL] [B]Biggest FX Mover[/B] @ (07:30 GMT) [B]NZDJPY (+0.60%) [/B]Risk-sensitive currencies remain volatile, from a slide to [B]76.65[/B] yesterday, today a rally to [B]77.80[/B]. Currently MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram over 0 and rising, RSI dipping from 70.00 at 58, Stochastic remain OB. H1 ATR 0.172, Daily 0.84. [B]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/B] Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. [B]Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer:[/B] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. [/QUOTE]
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