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Fundamental Analysis
Daily Market Analysis by Vinson Financials
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[QUOTE="VinsonFinancialsFX, post: 93710, member: 34988"] [url="http://www.vinsonfinancials.com"][CENTER][IMG]http://i58.tinypic.com/1ph2xc.jpg[/IMG][/CENTER][/url] [B][SIZE=4][COLOR=#ff0000]Financial News December 14, 2015 [/COLOR][/SIZE][/B] [B]EUR/USD likely to be at 0.95 by end-2016[/B] European Central bank's rhetoric might at the December meeting might come at a long-term cost to EUR , while EUR/USD was forecasted higher last week. "We continue to forecast EUR/USD at 0.95 by end-2016", says Barclays in a research note. The year 2016 looks prepared for higher volatility in EUR/USD. While the Greek crisis has abated, there is a new escalation of tensions around most of highly-indebted EA countries are still a key risk as there is mounting up opposition to rising immigration and fiscal austerity. After the ECB meeting, the longer term inflation expectations in the market also dropped, with most recent flash estimate of HICP inflation disappointing significantly, which should be confirmed at 0.9% yoy, while previously it was at 1.1% yoy. Currently EUR is trading at 1.0965 against US dollar. [SIZE=4][COLOR=#ff0000][B]Market Review December 14, 2015 [/B][/COLOR][/SIZE] The Asian session this morning was rather quiet despite the long awaited anticipated event from the FOMC on Wednesday. Released during the session, Japan's December tankan survey showed big manufacturers index +12 beating the estimated +11, while Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index came in at +25 beating the estimated +23. Moreover, Japanese Revised Industrial Production rose 1.4%, as expected by economists and Tertiary Industry Activity rose 0.9% versus the estimated 0.5%. USD/JPY is currently trading near the 121.30 area with the next support seen at the 120.56 level. The United States Federal Reserve is expected to start raising interest rates on Wednesday, in the first such move since 2006. The anticipated economic move has been described as “momentous” and a hugely significant milestone of progress in the repairing of the US economy since the damage done by the Great Recession. Furthermore, Janet Yellen, the Fed’s chair, had signalled that the central bank could raise interest rates from their record low of 0.25% in September, however the downturn in the Chinese economy and the resulting turmoil in financial markets, persuaded the Fed to change their mind and keep the current interest rates. The FOMC are due to hold their December policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, the scene has been carefully set for the first increase in US interest rates for almost a decade. Elsewhere, late on Friday, the China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS), a sub-institutional organization of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), introduced a new exchange rate index that will see the Yuan (CNY), or renminbi, valued against a basket of 13 trade-weighted currencies. Furthermore, it is not clear if the PBOC will ever formally tie the Yuan to this gauge but CFETS did say the basket includes both G3 and Asian currencies. The Chinese government believes that "the bilateral renminbi-USD exchange rate is not considered a good indicator of the international parity of tradable goods". Introduction of the index would help gauge renminbi’s performance against a basket of trade-weighted currencies as "a basket of currencies can better capture the competitiveness of a country's goods and services, and better enable the exchange rate to adjust". The key events for the day would be the Eurostat Industrial Production, ECB President Draghi speech and MPC Member Shafik speech. [B]Data releases to monitor:[/B] GBP: MPC Member Shafik speech. EUR: Industrial Production, ECB President Draghi speech. [COLOR="#FF0000"][B]Trade Idea of the Day [/B] [B]EUR/GBP[/B][/COLOR] Currently the pair is trading at 0.7229. Traders must monitor the 0.7279 resistance level and the support level 0.7163 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 0.7254 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 0.7275 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 0.7207 support level, where a break may lead to the 0.7175 area. [IMG]https://www.vinsonfinancials.com/images/daily-chart/2015/December/14Dec15EURGBPH1.png[/IMG] [/QUOTE]
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