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Fundamental Analysis
Daily Market Analysis by Vinson Financials
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[QUOTE="VinsonFinancialsFX, post: 93159, member: 34988"] [url="http://www.vinsonfinancials.com"][CENTER][IMG]http://i58.tinypic.com/1ph2xc.jpg[/IMG][/CENTER][/url] [B][SIZE=4][COLOR=#ff0000]Financial News December 3, 2015 [/COLOR][/SIZE][/B] [B]ECB likely to cut deposit rate at todays meeting[/B] The ECB has given a hint of adjusting its asset purchase program along three tools, such as time commitment, pace, and composition. A change in time and pace may be expected, but it is a less effective toll to influence exchange rate. Since the euro area experiencing lower core inflation outlook, the ECB will choose a monetary tool that will help the Bank to correct the inflation outlook. "The ECB could cut the deposit rate by 10bp and provide the market with forward guidance of further cuts. Another option would be to cut 20bp and signal its willingness to cut more if needed", argues Barclays. [SIZE=4][COLOR=#ff0000][B]Market Review December 3, 2015 [/B][/COLOR][/SIZE] The economic data from Australia was once again in focus during the Asian session. More specifically, Australia released its Trade Balance, which came in at -3.31B missing the estimated -2.61B, HIA New Home Sales declined -3.0% versus the previous of -4.0% and AIG Services Index came in at 48.2 versus the previous of 48.9. AUD/USD remained near the 0.7320 area with the next resistance seen at the 0.7342 level. Released during the early European session, Spanish Services PMI came in at 56.7 beating the estimated 56.2 and causing insignificant impact on the EUR/USD, which returned to the 1.0570 area. Elsewhere, Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen indicated yesterday that she is ready to raise short-term interest rates this month barring a surprise that shakes her confidence in the economy. Moreover, she stated that she sees dissension within her ranks, which could complicate her moves toward ending seven years of near-zero rates. “I don’t need unanimity. I think we have to tolerate some dissent,” Ms. Yellen said in answer to a question after delivering a speech on the economic outlook. “I wouldn’t try to stifle dissents, and I would even expect some at critical junctures.” Furthermore, she anticipated "continued economic growth at a moderate pace that will be sufficient to generate additional increases in employment, further reductions in the remaining margins of labour market slack and a rise in inflation to our 2 per cent objective." In another place, the BoC stayed neutral as it left the overnight rate target unchanged at 0.5% the Bank Rate unchanged at 0.75% and the deposit rate at 0.25%. The Canadian dollar stayed in established range against the US Dollar. The pair is currently trading near the 1.3315 area with the next support seen at the 1.3280 level. The key events for the day would be the ECB rate decision and press conference, where the Central Bank is expected to announce expansion of policy easing. Furthermore, there are also talks that ECB would further lower the deposit rate, which currently stands negative at -0.2%. Additional economic releases would be the United States Unemployment Claims and Fed Chair Yellen testimony. [B]Data releases to monitor:[/B] EUR: Italian Services PMI, French Final Services PMI, German Final Services PMI, Final Services PMI, Retail Sales, Spanish 10-y Bond Auction, French 10-y Bond Auction, Minimum Bid Rate, ECB Press Conference. GBP: Services PMI. USD: Unemployment Claims, Final Services PMI, Fed Chair Yellen Testimony, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Factory Orders, Natural Gas Storage, FOMC Member Fischer speech. [COLOR="#FF0000"][B]Trade Idea of the Day [/B] [B]GBP/CAD[/B][/COLOR] Currently the pair is trading at 1.9893. Traders must monitor the 1.9999 resistance level and the support level 1.9775 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 1.9830 support area and further downward movement to 1.9775 level. An alternative scenario could be a movement near the 1.999 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 2.0075. [IMG]https://www.vinsonfinancials.com/images/daily-chart/2015/December/03dec2015GBPCADH4.png[/IMG] [/QUOTE]
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