Daily Free Fundamental And Technical Analysis By Capital Street FX.

[CapitalStreetFX]

Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 04 August 2023​

Nervous Excitement Grips Traders as US Job Data Sparks Market Anticipation.​

In anticipation of important job numbers later today, investors meticulously analyzed changes in treasury yields, economic data, and profit reports yesterday. The day resulted in a mixed performance for US stock markets. The S&P experienced a slight decline of 0.25%, the Nasdaq, on the other hand, saw a modest rise of 0.08%, while the Dow ended the day lower by 0.19%. Sterling faced downward pressure after the Bank of England announced a 25bps raise, while the currency market had a relatively calm day, trading in narrow ranges but at the top of recent USD levels. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury note traded as high as 4.198% throughout the session. After the market closed, Amazon shares soared as it anticipated substantially greater third-quarter revenues than expected. Meanwhile, Apple’s shares fell due to weaker iPhone sales.

Important US Job Data Today​

Traders are keeping a close eye on the prestigious release for the financial markets today. Investors have long been focused on non-farm payrolls, now known as employment change, which has given many traders nightmares when unexpected prints took markets on rollercoaster rides they didn’t really need on a late Friday trading session. The Federal Reserve has stated that they are closely monitoring the data as they approach the end of their tightening cycle, adding even more significance to today’s event. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.6%, and the headline number is projected to climb by 205K. However, if one of these expectations is significantly off, traders may find themselves getting back on the rollercoaster, whether they want to or not!

What Happened In The Asia Session?​

During the Board meeting in August, the potential for further tightening of monetary policy was considered. Nevertheless, it was ultimately concluded that keeping rates unchanged was the better course of action, considering the severe tightening of policy that has already occurred. Therefore, we might witness an increase in interest rates as the year draws to a close, and currency pairs like AUD/USD could eventually experience bullish momentum.

What Does It Mean For The Europe & US Sessions?​

The most important news event today will be the Non-Farm Employment Change in the United States. This is expected to create another exceptionally volatile session for both currencies and gold prices.

Expert Analysis: Forex And Cryptocurrency Trading Recommendations​

GBPUSD​

Exponential Moving Average​

• EMA 5: The 5-day EMA stands at 1.2709, suggesting a bearish sentiment.
• EMA 20: The 20-day EMA displays 1.2772, reinforcing a bearish indication.
• EMA 50: With a value of 1.2822, the 50-day EMA aligns with a sell recommendation.

Simple Moving Average​

• SMA 5: The 5-day SMA shows 1.2699, indicating a bearish sentiment.
• SMA 20: The 20-day SMA records 1.2787, supporting a bearish stance.
• SMA 50: The 50-day SMA stands at 1.2893, signifying a sell indication.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)​

The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, displays a reading of 36.42, suggesting a negative signal.

Stochastic Oscillator​

The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a positive condition.

Resistance And Support Levels​

• Resistance: The resistance level is identified at 1.2761.
• Support: The support level is observed at 1.2679.

Summary And Trade Suggestions​

Based on technical analysis, GBP/USD presents a bearish outlook. Traders may consider entering a short position, considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators.

Trade Suggestion:​

• Entry Point: 1.2640
• Take Profit: 1.2538
• Stop Loss: 1.2730

EURUSD​

Read Full Report - CAPITAL STREET FX​

 

[CapitalStreetFX]

Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 08 August 2023​

Nasdaq Lags as Dow Gains, Oil Prices Await API Stockpiles.​

Introduction​

In this dynamic market update, we delve into the recent surge in stocks, exploring the factors driving the rebound. We dissect the implications of Federal Reserve remarks on interest rates, the divergent CPI data between China and the US, and key news events shaping the Euro (EUR), Canadian Dollar (CAD), and Kiwi Dollar (NZD). As global markets oscillate, we provide insights into Asian, European, and US equities, along with commodity trends and significant news and data releases.

Rejuvenated Stock Market Momentum​

Dow Delivers Over 1% Gain Despite Fed’s Rate Remarks​

The stock market kicked off the trading week with gusto as major US indices demonstrated resilience against the backdrop of Federal Reserve members’ pronouncements. While Fed officials indicated a need for prolonged high-interest rates and hinted at potential future hikes, the Dow managed a remarkable 1.16% surge. This uptick stands as the Dow’s most substantial gain in over seven weeks, underlining investors’ willingness to embrace risk despite the monetary policy narrative. The S&P followed suit, ascending 0.9%, while the tech-laden Nasdaq, though trailing, still posted a 0.61% upturn.

US Treasury Yields Climb; Dollar Impact Muted​

While the Fed’s remarks spurred an uptick in US Treasury yields, the dollar’s response was subdued due to trading in narrow currency ranges. This curious reaction underscores the delicate balance of global currency dynamics, despite the underlying shifts in monetary policy outlook.

CPI Data Takes Center Stage​

Divergent Market Perspectives: China Vs. US​

The impending week places substantial emphasis on Consumer Price Index (CPI) data releases, particularly from the two largest economies – China and the US. These contrasting economic giants showcase divergent market perspectives. China’s CPI data is set to debut during the Asian session, with an anticipated 0.4% year-on-year decline. Such a downtrend might compel Chinese authorities to consider defensive measures against the looming threat of deflation. In stark contrast, the US economy is projected to exhibit year-on-year growth surpassing 3%, coupled with a 0.2% month-on-month expansion. This robust growth may bolster the assertive language voiced by Fed officials, amplifying the discourse on monetary policy outlook. The interplay between these differing economic trajectories and corresponding policy actions fuels fertile ground for FX traders seeking profitable opportunities.

Forex and Commodity Market Insights for Successful Trades​

GBP/USD: Navigating The Path​

Exponential Moving Average (EMA)​

• EMA 5: The 5-day EMA stands at 1.2754, signaling a bearish trend.
• EMA 20: The 20-day EMA displays 1.2767, reinforcing the downtrend.
• EMA 50: At 1.2808, the 50-day EMA aligns with a bearish sentiment.

Simple Moving Average (SMA)​

• SMA 5: The 5-day SMA shows 1.2758, indicating a bearish market.
• SMA 20: The 20-day SMA records 1.2759, supporting the sell stance.
• SMA 50: The 50-day SMA stands at 1.2853, confirming the sell indication.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)​

The RSI, calculated over 14 days, presents a reading of 43.45, suggesting a negative market sentiment.

Stochastic Oscillator​

The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator points to a positive condition.

Resistance And Support Levels​

• Resistance: Identified at 1.2786
• Support: Observed at 1.2730

Summary And Trade Suggestions​

Considering the technical analysis, GBP/USD showcases a bearish outlook. Traders may contemplate short positions based on indicators, moving averages, and oscillators.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 1.2674
• Take Profit: 1.2584
• Stop Loss: 1.2752

EURUSD: Unraveling The Dynamics​

Read Full Report - CAPITAL STREET FX​

 

[CapitalStreetFX]

Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 21 August 2023​

Euro’s Hidden Battle: Can it Rebound from 1.0845 Support or Face Further Decline?​

Last week proved to be a trying period for investors as mounting concerns manifested into tangible market risks. As the new week unfolds, investors are eagerly anticipating a more favourable outcome. Despite a relatively subdued weekend for the major US indices, the preceding damage has already been incurred. The S&P closed marginally down by 0.01%, the Nasdaq experienced a 0.2% dip, while the Dow managed a modest 0.07% uptick. The dollar’s streak of five consecutive weeks of gains has concluded, and US treasury rates have once again escalated. The benchmark 10-year note reached a 10-month pinnacle of 4.328%. Although the forthcoming week’s calendar is sparsely populated with events, investors are already casting their gaze towards the Jackson Hole symposium slated for week’s end, hopeful for fresh catalysts to rejuvenate sluggish markets.

Gold Bears Triumph In A Challenging Market​

Gold’s Struggle Continues with a 9% Retreat

Gold’s trajectory has been marked by adversity over the past few months, with its value plummeting by 9% from its previous all-time high reached in May. Recent days have seen this precious metal comfortably trading below the $1,900 threshold, leading traders to seek out new points for selling. While the dollar’s resurgent position has certainly contributed to this downturn, investors, accustomed to gold’s role as a haven during market downturns, find themselves puzzled by the dollar’s dominance. From a technical perspective, the shattering of recent support levels has paved the way for a potential plunge to $1,800, with initial resistance presenting itself at the $1,910 mark. Nevertheless, if risk-centric trades continue to dwindle, a resurgence is plausible as safe-haven assets eventually gain traction.

Insights From The Asia Session​

Quiet Start with Limited Catalysts

Monday offers little in the way of notable news stories that could serve as potential catalysts for currency pairs or commodities. Throughout the Asia session, the DXY fluctuated between 103.30 and 103.47, a pattern that might persist before Europe’s trading hours commence.

Outlook For The Europe & US Sessions​

The paucity of News Awaits Europe

The European schedule mirrors the dearth of impactful news, which could lead to major currency pairs trading within a constrained range until the initiation of the US session. The higher trading volume during the latter half of the day might provide a much-needed jolt for the markets.

Expert Analysis: Forex and Commodity Market Insights for Profitable Trading​

GBPUSD: Expert Technical Analysis For Trading Success​

Exponential Moving Average (EMA) Insights​

• EMA 5: The 5-day EMA stands at 1.2728, suggesting a potential Sell sentiment.
• EMA 20: The 20-day EMA displays 1.2723, reinforcing the idea of a Sell indication.
• EMA 50: With a value of 1.2747, the 50-day EMA aligns with a recommendation to Sell.

Simple Moving Average (SMA) Trends​

• SMA 5: The 5-day SMA shows 1.2728, indicating a Sell sentiment.
• SMA 20: The 20-day SMA records 1.2709, supporting a Buy stance.
• SMA 50: The 50-day SMA stands at 1.2738, signifying a potential Sell indication.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) Insights​

The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, displays a reading of 48.96, suggesting a positive signal.

Stochastic Oscillator Analysis​

The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a Negative condition.

Resistance And Support Levels​

• Resistance: The resistance level is identified at 1.2756
• Support: The support level is observed at 1.2681

Summary And Trade Suggestions​

Based on the technical analysis, GBP/USD presents a Sell outlook. Traders may consider entering a short position, considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 1.2634
• Take Profit: 1.2509
• Stop Loss: 1.2735

EURUSD: Technical Analysis For Informed Trading​

Read Full Report - CAPITAL STREET FX​

 

[CapitalStreetFX]

Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 22 August 2023​

Nvidia’s Meteoric Rise and HSBC’s Jaw-Dropping Prediction: Is This the End of Wall Street Predictions?​

In a whirlwind of market activity, tech giants like Nvidia have taken center stage, propelling the Nasdaq to remarkable gains, while investor attention remains fixated on the upcoming Jackson Hole conference. Let’s dive into the latest market updates and uncover the driving forces behind these significant movements.

Nvidia’s Earnings Drive Nasdaq’s Upward Trajectory​

Nvidia’s impending earnings announcement sent ripples through the stock market, with its shares experiencing a notable surge on Monday. This surge played a pivotal role in boosting both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500, leading them to close the day with more than a 1% increase. The positive momentum wasn’t confined to Nvidia alone, as other technology-related equities also enjoyed gains, painting a vivid picture of the tech sector’s impact on the broader market.

Dow Jones Dips Amidst Market Fluctuations​

While the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 were basking in their gains, the Dow Jones industrial average experienced a slight decline. This divergence in performance underscores the intricate interplay of various market factors that influence each index’s trajectory.

Anticipation Builds Ahead Of Jackson Hole Conference​

Investor apprehension is palpable as the countdown to the Jackson Hole conference begins. Scheduled to take place in scenic Wyoming, this conference will bring together central bankers from around the world to discuss pivotal monetary policy matters. The stakes are high, given that the yield on 10-year Treasury notes recently reached levels reminiscent of the 2007 Great Financial Crisis. All eyes are on Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chairman, as he prepares to take the stage on Friday to deliver a speech that could steer market sentiment.

Tech Sector Takes The Lead: S&P 500 And Nasdaq Benefit​

The technology sector emerged as a key driver of market gains, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaping the most significant rewards. This surge was particularly pronounced in the SPLRCT, the technology sector’s S&P 500 subindex. Further underlining this trend, the semiconductor index (SOX) saw a notable uptick of 2.8%.

NVIDIA’S SOARING STOCK AND HSBC’S BULLISH OUTLOOK​

A standout performer, semiconductor manufacturer Nvidia witnessed an impressive 8.5% increase in its stock value. This surge can be attributed, in part, to HSBC’s decision to raise its price target for Nvidia shares to a staggering $780—a figure that now ranks as the second-highest on Wall Street. Such an optimistic outlook from a reputable financial institution further solidifies Nvidia’s position as a market leader.

GBPUSD: A Buy Outlook​

Exponential Moving Average

• EMA 5: Standing at 1.2764, this suggests a Buy sentiment.
• EMA 20: Displaying 1.2738, reinforces a Buy indication.
• EMA 50: Aligned at 1.2751, the 50-day EMA supports a Buy recommendation.

Simple Moving Average

• SMA 5: At 1.2766, this indicates a Buy sentiment.
• SMA 20: Recording 1.2724, this supports a Buy stance.
• SMA 50: Standing at 1.2735, this signifies a Buy indication.

RSI (Relative Strength Index) The RSI, calculated over 14 days, reads 61.13, suggesting a positive signal.

Stochastic Oscillator The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator indicates a Positive condition.

Resistance And Support Levels

• Resistance: Identified at 1.2819
• Support: Observed at 1.2711

Summary And Trade Suggestions Based on technical analysis, GBP/USD presents a Buy outlook. Traders may consider entering a long position, considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 1.2869
• Take Profit: 1.2973
• Stop Loss: 1.2788

EURUSD: Favorable For Long Position​

Read Full Report - CAPITAL STREET FX​

 

[CapitalStreetFX]

Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 29 August 2023​

Nasdaq Rockets 0.84% After Jackson Hole! What’s Behind This Explosive Surge?​

Introduction​

In the ever-changing landscape of financial markets, the US stocks have once again demonstrated their resilience as the Nasdaq rose by an impressive 0.84%. This surge comes on the heels of the Jackson Hole symposium, a gathering of economic minds that often sets the tone for market sentiment. As the week unfolds, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s data, providing investors with crucial insights into the future trajectory of interest rates. Let’s delve into the details of this market update and explore the implications for global investors.

Nasdaq Takes The Lead​

The Nasdaq, a stalwart among the three major US indices, stole the spotlight with its 0.84% rise on the heels of the Jackson Hole symposium. This advance was accompanied by gains in both the Dow and the S&P 500, indicating a promising start to the week for US markets.

Treasury Notes And Rate Speculations​

Amidst the market fervor, the benchmark 10-year Treasury note garnered attention as it hovered just below the 4.21% mark. Notably, US treasury rates witnessed a slight dip from earlier gains, a reflection of investor debates over the possibility of a third Fed boost. The outcome of these discussions could significantly influence market trends in the near future.

Forex Market’s Response​

While the recent news failed to generate significant excitement in the foreign exchange markets, there were notable fluctuations. The USDJPY initially surged to a high point before experiencing a decline by the end of the trading day. This contributed to an overall decline in the dollar’s value. In contrast, Gold exhibited its characteristic resilience, reaching a high of around $1,926 per ounce. Oil, on the other hand, remained relatively stable, adhering to familiar trading ranges.

Fed’s Data: The Center Of Attention​

The optimism that characterized Wednesday’s stock market surge was largely attributed to Jerome Powell’s optimistic remarks, viewed through a dovish lens. However, seasoned investors recognize that central banks closely monitor data as they plan their next moves regarding interest rates. This week’s data calendar is brimming with US economic indicators, most notably the PCE Price Index, a preferred inflation gauge of the Fed. Additionally, the eagerly awaited non-farm payrolls report promises to shed light on the labor market’s trajectory.

Impact On US Markets​

With all eyes on the US job market, the week’s focus revolves around a market slowdown that could potentially influence the Fed’s decisions on interest rates. While investors hope for a market deceleration to halt rising rates, they are wary of a market crash that could signal an impending recession. This dichotomy sets the stage for a tumultuous week as market participants brace themselves for a whirlwind of data releases.

GBP/USD: Riding The Market Waves​

Exponential Moving Averages Paint A Story​

• EMA 5: At 1.2607, there’s a beckoning Buy sentiment.
• EMA 20: Stands at 1.2646, reinforcing a Sell indication.
• EMA 50: Aligns at 1.2695, giving way to a Sell recommendation.

RSI And Stochastic Insights​

• RSI: Over 14 days, a reading of 43.21 unveils a Neutral signal.
• Stochastic Oscillator: %K value suggests a Positive condition.

Critical Resistance And Support Levels​

• Resistance: 1.2645
• Support: 1.2598

Analyst’s Take: It’s A Sell Outlook​

Based on our technical analysis, GBP/USD presents a Sell outlook. Traders might consider a short position, considering the various indicators, moving averages, and oscillators.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 1.2576
• Take Profit: 1.2502
• Stop Loss: 1.2641

EUR/USD: Riding The Eurocoaster​

Read Full Report - CAPITAL STREET FX​

 

[CapitalStreetFX]

Daily FX Analysis:- GBP/USD, EUR/USD, AUD/USD Face Challenges​

Introduction:​

In the world of currency markets, the GBP/USD is grappling with weakness below the 1.2300 mark, influenced by UK Retail Sales data and PMIs. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD holds steady near 1.0650 after German and EU PMI data. Over in the AUD/USD realm, the pair struggles to gain momentum above 0.6400 amidst a resurgent USD. Lastly, the USD/JPY awaits pivotal moves as the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision looms, with expectations set at 148.50. The backdrop of central bank decisions and economic data casts a shadow of uncertainty across these major currency pairs.

GBP/USD:​

Following UK Retail Sales Figures And PMIs, The GBP/USD Remains Weak Below 1. 2300.​

A multi-month low recorded on Thursday is still within striking distance as GBP/USD is currently trading depressed around 1.2270. After a surprising BoE halt, depressing UK retail sales data weighs on the pair. The emphasis now is on the UK/US PMI statistics.

As anticipated, the Federal Reserve kept its policy rate at 5.25%–5.5%. It was verified by the updated Summary of Projections that policymakers still plan to raise the policy rate in 2023. More significantly, the prediction for a rate drop in 2024 was lowered from 100 bps to 50 bps. The hawkish dot plot gave the US Dollar (USD) a lift and kept the GBP/USD under bearish pressure.

The Bank of England (BoE) will make its interest rate decision later in the day. The market anticipates a 25 bps increase to 5.5%. However, numerous financial organizations, including Goldman Sachs, updated their predictions in response to the weak Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August and stated that they were now anticipating the BoE to hold the rates constant following its September meeting.

Technical Overview :​

Moving Averages:​

Exponential:​

• MA 5: 1.2283 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20: 1.2361| Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50: 1.2456 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple:​

• MA 5: 1.2281 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20: 1.2368 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50: 1.2479 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 25.67 | Sell Zone | Negative

Stochastic Oscillator: 31.0| Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance And Support Levels: ​

• R1: 1.2322 | R2: 1.2452
• S1: 1.2231 | S2: 1.2082

Overall Sentiment: Bearish | Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 1.2188 | Take Profit: 1.2082 | Stop Loss: 1.2279

EUR/USD:​

After German And EU PMI Data, The EUR/USD Remains Close To 1.0650.​

During Friday’s European session, the EUR/USD exchange rate is still hovering around 1.0650. Early in August, the service sector’s economic activity showed signs of improvement according to PMI data from Germany and the Eurozone, which helped the euro keep its position.

On Thursday, the EUR/USD recovered losses and sank to a new multi-month low of 1.0615. Following US data, the pair touched its daily low before staging a comeback and touching 1.0670 thanks to a decline in the US Dollar.

The PMIs, which will give preliminary details about economic activity throughout September in the US and the Eurozone, will be the important data to pay attention to on Friday. These figures will be widely watched because central banks rely on statistics.

Technical Overview:​

Read Full Report - CAPITAL STREET FX​

 

[CapitalStreetFX]

Daily Commodity Analysis - Investors Seize Golden Trading Opportunities​

Introduction:​

In the world of commodities, Natural Gas (XNG/USD) breaks a two-day losing streak, surging back above $3.00, signaling a bullish momentum shift. Meanwhile, Gold prices experience a modest rise, driven by a weakening dollar, yet concerns linger amid potential interest rate hikes. In the broader commodity market landscape, Oil prices continue to climb on supply worries, while Copper shows resilience amidst industrial metal fluctuations. Silver (XAG/USD) also sees gains following US data, though its overall outlook remains cautious.

Natural Gas:​

XNG/USD Snaps Two-Day Losing Streak Under $3.00, Bull Cross-Eyed.​

The price of natural gas attracts some buyers and swings positive on Friday around $2. 89.

During Friday’s early European trading hours, the price of natural gas (XNG/USD) regained its losses. XNG/USD is now up 1.19% on the day, trading close to $2.89 per MMBtu. The weekly Natural Gas Storage Change for the week ending September 15 climbed by 64 billion cubic feet (Bcf) from the prior week’s 67 billion, according to data released on Thursday by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Technical Overview:​

Moving Averages:​

Exponential:​

• MA 5: 2.80 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20: 2.74 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50: 2.71 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple:​

• MA 5: 2.79 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20: 2.75 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50: 2.71 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 63.16 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator: 99.85 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance And Support Levels: ​

• R1: 2.85 | R2: 3.00
• S1: 2.77 | S2: 2.67

Overall Sentiment: Bullish | Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 2.90 | Take Profit: 3.00 | Stop Loss: 2.84

GOLD:​

Read Full Report - CAPITAL STREET FX​

 

[CapitalStreetFX]

Daily FX Analysis Surges, Sterling Weakens; Japan Cautious on Yen Volatility​

Introduction:​

In recent financial news, the Euro (EUR) experienced a notable two-day surge, its strongest since mid-September. However, growing caution among retail traders, with 65% holding net-long positions on EUR/USD, hints at a potential bearish outlook. Concurrently, the U.S. is set to tighten chipmaking equipment export rules to China, straining bilateral relations. Meanwhile, the British Pound (GBP) dipped slightly amid a fifth week of losses due to a robust U.S. Dollar, while U.K. house prices showed slight improvement. Japan also redefined “excessive” yen volatility thresholds as a precaution, and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hit an 11-month high, with 12 consecutive weeks of gains expected, while AUD and NZD faced declines due to central bank decisions.

Markets In Focus Today –​

EUR/USD:​

Euro Rises For Second Consecutive Session Amidst Growing Retail Trader Concerns​

In a remarkable two-day performance, the Euro has surged in value for the second consecutive trading session, demonstrating its most impressive gains since mid-September. However, beneath the surface, there are signs that retail traders are becoming increasingly cautious about the currency’s prospects. A closer look at the IG Client Sentiment (IGCS), which often acts as a contrarian indicator, reveals an intriguing shift in market sentiment. The big question now is whether this upward momentum in the exchange rate can be sustained.

The IGCS data indicates that approximately 65% of retail traders are currently positioned as net-long on EUR/USD. Given the bullish bias that most of these traders hold, this suggests a potential bearish outlook for the currency in the near future. Interestingly, there has been a noticeable uptick in bearish bets, with a 7.05% increase compared to the previous day and a significant 14.98% rise from last week. These recent shifts in trader positioning raise the possibility of a reversal in the Euro’s fortunes.

Technical Overview With Chart:​

Moving Averages:​

Exponential:​

• MA 5: 1.0531 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20: 1.0604 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50: 1.0715 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple:​

• MA 5: 1.0508 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20: 1.0609 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50: 1.0768 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 39.53 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic Oscillator: 100 | Overbought Zone | Bullish

Resistance And Support Levels :​

• R1:1.0553 | R2: 1.0566
• S1: 1.0513 | S2: 1.0500

Overall Sentiment: Bearish | Market Direction: Sell​

Trade Suggestion: Strong Sell: 1.0548 | Take Profit: 1.0489 | Stop Loss: 1.0620

GBP/USD​

 

[CapitalStreetFX]

Daily FX Analysis-Middle East Tensions Roil Forex Markets​

Introduction:​

In the midst of escalating Middle East conflicts and shifting global dynamics, major currency pairs face unique challenges. GBP/USD grapples with risk aversion, while EUR/USD maintains vulnerability amid geopolitical tensions. AUD/USD feels the pressure amidst risk-aversion, and USD/JPY treads cautiously as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict influences market sentiment. Amidst these uncertainties, the currency markets await crucial developments, including the US September jobs report and geopolitical shifts that could impact these currency pairs in the days ahead.

GBP/USD:​

GBP/USD Struggles Near 1.2200 As Middle East Conflict Weighs On Risk.​

GBP/USD is struggling against 1.2200 early on Monday due to risk aversion. Rising Middle East geopolitical tensions and hawkish Fed wagers benefit the US dollar. The weight on the pair is also increased by higher oil prices.

GBP/USD closed in positive territory on Wednesday and Thursday before edging up to the 1.2200 region on Friday. The pair appears to have additional upside potential in the immediate term, but investors should hold off on any US Dollar (USD) weakening until the September jobs report is less than expected.

In the US, it is expected that nonfarm payrolls (NFP) would increase by 170,000 in September. The USD may come under fresh adverse pressure if the NFP comes in below 150,000 and confirms tightening labor market conditions. In such cases, dovish Federal Reserve expectations could cause risk flows to take center stage on the financial markets, giving the GBP/USD exchange rate a further boost.

Technical Overview:​

Moving Averages:​

Exponential:​

• MA 5: 1.2182 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20: 1.2168 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50: 1.2239 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple:​

• MA 5: 1.2180 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20: 1.2153 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50: 1.2229 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 50.34 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator: 88.45| Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance And Support Levels:​

• R1: 1.2301 | R2: 1.2539
• S1: 1.2319 | S2: 1.1920

Overall Sentiment: Bearish | Market Direction: Sell​

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 1.2075 | Take Profit: 1.1920 | Stop Loss: 1.2210

EUR/USD:​

Read Full Report - CAPITAL STREET FX​

 

[CapitalStreetFX]

Daily FX Analysis - Forex's major pairs ride economic waves, shaping markets.​

Introduction:​

In the dynamic forex market, the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, and USD/JPY pairs showcase noteworthy trends. The EUR/USD sees slight gains, with a focus on Eurozone CPI and US NFP data. Meanwhile, GBP/USD maintains an upward trajectory ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls. USD/CAD rises amid improved US Treasury yields, while USD/JPY experiences fluctuations before the release of NFP data. Stay tuned for key economic indicators shaping these currency pairs’ movements.

EUR/USD:​

The EUR/USD Is Experiencing Slight Gains, Trading Above The Mid-1.0900s, As It Anticipates The Release Of Eurozone CPI And US NFP Data.​

On Friday, the EUR/USD pair maintains a positive trend for the second consecutive day. However, it is showing limited momentum and continues to stay within the broader trading range established on the previous day. Current spot prices are situated above the mid-1.0900s, with traders eagerly anticipating significant macroeconomic data from both the Eurozone and the United States.

On Thursday, the EUR/USD successfully recovered and briefly touched the 1.0970/75 range. However, bulls encountered initial resistance in this zone, marking a pause after enduring four consecutive sessions of bearish dominance.

Overseas, a robust ADP report in December appears to have strengthened the argument for a similarly strong Nonfarm Payrolls reading expected on Friday in the same period.

Technical Overview:​

Moving Averages:​

Exponential:​

• MA 5: 1.0937| Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20: 1.1000| Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50: 1.0972 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple:​

• MA 5: 1.0936 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20: 1.1013 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50: 1.0972 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 38.87| Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic Oscillator: 18.05| Sell zone | Neutral

Resistance And Support Levels:​

• R1: 1.0984| R2: 1.1110
• S1: 1.0922| S2: 1.0786

Overall Sentiment: Bearish | Market Direction: Sell​

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 1.0891| Take Profit: 1.0786 | Stop Loss: 1.0962

GBP/USD:​

Read Full Report - CAPITAL STREET FX​

 

[CapitalStreetFX]

Daily FX Analysis - EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD climbs, AUD/USD hovers.​

Introduction​

Amid cautious markets, EUR/USD grapples near 1.0950 as the US Dollar attempts a tepid recovery. Uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s policy outlook prompts hesitancy, with mid-tier US data and Fedspeak awaited. Meanwhile, GBP/USD faces downward pressure near 1.2700 amid a resurgent US Dollar and a challenging risk sentiment. NZD/USD, buoyed by a risk-on mood, climbs to 0.6260, with Fed’s Bostic foreseeing rate cuts. The Australian Dollar hovers around a psychological level as the US Dollar stabilizes, while positive economic data from Australia provides support. Eyes are on upcoming key data releases for further market direction.

Markets In Focus Today – EUR/USD​

EUR/USD Struggles Near 1.0950 Amid Cautious Markets.​

EUR/USD is trading close to 1.0950, struggling in European trading on Tuesday. The US Dollar attempts to tepid recovery, as markets turn cautious amid a lack of clarity on the Fed’s policy outlook. Mid-tier US data and Fedspeak awaited. EUR/USD is having a difficult time finding direction for the second consecutive day on Tuesday and extending its consolidation near 1.0950. November Goods Trade Balance and NFIB Business Optimism Index will be featured in the US economic docket but investors are unlikely to take large positions based on these figures, especially while waiting for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data that will be published on Thursday.

Technical Overview With Chart :​

Moving Averages :​

Exponential :​

• MA 10 : 1.10 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 1.10 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 1.09 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :​

• MA 10 : 1.10 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 1.10 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 1.09 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 51.26 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 26.57 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance And Support Levels :​

• R1 : 1.11 R2 : 1.12
• S1 : 1.08 S2 : 1.07

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy​

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 1.0937 | Take Profit: 1.1038 | Stop Loss: 1.0887

GBP/USD​

GBP/USD Falls Toward 1.2700 As US Dollar Rebounds.​

Read Full Report - CAPITAL STREET FX​

 

[CapitalStreetFX]

Daily FX Analysis - EUR/USD soars, GBP/USD defies fears, AUD/USD grapples, USD/JPY rebounds.​

Introduction​

EUR/USD reclaims 1.0900 as US Dollar weakens; ECB’s hawkish stance supports. GBP/USD maintains gains below 1.2700 amid reduced expectations of a Bank of England rate cut. Australian Dollar struggles against USD after solid US Retail Sales data. Japanese Yen sees modest recovery, hindered by expectations of a dovish BoJ and diminished bets on a March Fed rate cut.

Markets In Focus Today – EUR/USD​

EUR/USD Buyers Retake 1.0900, Lagarde’s Speech, US Data Eyed.​

EUR/USD is flirting with the 1.0900 mark, finding demand in Asian trading on Thursday—the pair gains amid renewed weakness in the US Dollar. The ECB hawks have pushed back against expectations of an early rate cut, lending further support to the currency pair. Lagarde and US data are on tap. EUR/USD traded mostly on the defensive on Wednesday, briefly dipping to new multi-week lows in the 1.0845/40 band and bouncing off that zone to the 1.0870 region as the NA session drew to a close. The continuation of the uptrend in the greenback was propped up by firmer readings from US Retail Sales during December, which in turn maintained the downside pressure on bets on an interest rate cut by the Fed in March.

Technical Overview With Chart :​

Moving Averages :​

Exponential :​

• MA 10 : 1.0891 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20: 1.0927 | Negative Crossover |
• MA 50 : 1.0964 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :​

• MA 10 : 1.0881 | Negative Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 1.0920 | Negative Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 1.0965 | Positive Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 41.94 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic Oscillator : 44.23 | Neutral Zone | Positive

Resistance And Support Levels :​

• R1 : 1.0918 R2 : 1.1013
• S1 : 1.0843 S2 : 1.0753

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Sell​

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1.0909 | Take Profit: 1.0800 | Stop Loss: 1.0986

GBP/USD​

Read Full Report - CAPITAL STREET FX​

 

[CapitalStreetFX]

Introduction​

GBP/USD remains steady above 1.2600, propelled by favorable UK labor market data, including a drop in the ILO Unemployment Rate to 3.8%. While the market maintains an optimistic stance, attention shifts to the US inflation report, anticipating potential impacts on the Federal Reserve’s decisions. Meanwhile, EUR/USD faces a bearish outlook, hovering below key levels, with a focus on US CPI data. USD/CAD breaks a five-day decline on market caution ahead of US inflation data, and NZD/USD declines on lower Kiwi Inflation Expectations in Q1.

Markets In Focus Today – GBP/USD​

GBP/USD Holds Comfortably Above 1.2600 After UK Labor Market Data.​

GBP/USD edges higher toward 1.2650 in the European morning on Tuesday. The data from the UK showed that the ILO Unemployment Rate declined to 3.8% in December, while the annual wage inflation softened to 6.2% from 6.7%. An upbeat market mood is sponsoring a leg-up on the major, though it remains within familiar levels. Market participants are eyeing an inflation report in the United States (US) which is expected to fuel speculations for rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Regarding monetary policy, the BoE is expected to slash rates by 80 basis points through 2024, less than the 110 bps at the beginning of the last week.

Technical Overview With Chart :​

Moving Averages :​

Exponential :​

• MA 10 : 1.2638 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 1.2655 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 1.2638 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :​

• MA 10 : 1.2633 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 1.2667 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 1.2674 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 48.2925 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 44.3336 | Neutral Zone | Positive

Resistance And Support Levels :​

• R1 : 1.2763 R2 : 1.2807
• S1 : 1.2618 S2 : 1.2574

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy​

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 1.2648 | Take Profit: 1.2719 | Stop Loss: 1.2605

EUR/USD​

Read Full Report - CAPITAL STREET FX​

 

[CapitalStreetFX]

Daily FX Analysis - Forex trends, insights, trades.​

Introduction​

EUR/USD maintains a flat trajectory above 1.0800 amid geopolitical tensions, with the US Dollar finding safe-haven demand. Investor confidence wanes due to China’s tensions with Taiwan. Lagarde’s speech and US data are eagerly awaited. Meanwhile, GBP/USD defends 1.2650 in a risk-off market, eyeing the BoE Chief Economist’s speech. Australian Dollar stabilizes after S&P/ASX 200 losses, while USD faces resistance as US Treasury yields decline. Japanese Yen struggles against the USD, hindered by reduced BoJ policy shift bets and hawkish Fed expectations.

Markets In Focus Today – EUR/USD​

EUR/USD Trades Flatlined Above 1.0800 Ahead Of Lagarde.​

EUR/USD trades in a tight range above 1.0800 early Monday. The US Dollar attracts fresh haven demand amid geopolitical tensions-led risk-averse markets—China’s spate with Taiwan and the US sap investors’ confidence. Lagarde’s speech and US data are next in focus. Despite Friday’s indecisive action, EUR/USD closed the previous week in positive territory. The pair continues to inch higher early Monday and the technical outlook suggests that the bullish bias remains intact. The US Dollar (USD) struggles to find demand in the European morning as US Treasury bond yields stretch lower.

Technical Overview With Chart :​

Moving Averages :​

Exponential :​

• MA 10 : 1.0803 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 1.0807 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 1.0833 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :​

• MA 10 : 1.0786 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 1.0788 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 1.0883 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 52.9390 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 67.0286 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance And Support Levels :​

• R1 : 1.0982 R2 : 1.1041
• S1 : 1.0790 S2 : 1.0731

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy​

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 1.0836 | Take Profit: 1.0896 | Stop Loss: 1.0799

GBP/USD​

GBP/USD Defends 1.2650 Amid Risk-Off Mood, USD Rebound.​

Read Full Report - CAPITAL STREET FX​