Currencies Outlook

[Liquid Markets]

EUR/USD – 1 Hr Chart

A like ‘M’ pattern was thought to be forming as of yesterday as the correction failed to happen at the C level but carried on upwards instead following the 1 Hr chart. Prices was supposed to have reached the C point as of yesterday itself at approximately 1.3053 to 1.3059 and then start moving downwards. Then didn’t happen. Overall the Euro is still believed to be in Bullish territory. For longer term traders, the 5-0 Bearish pattern seemed to still be intact.



EUR/USD Forecast

As for patterns this morning, I am not particualrly keen in making any ‘set-in-stone’ forecasts as the closest I got to was the ABCD pattern for the EUR/USD 1 Hr chart. The chart below is one that compares the uptrend move as indicated as ‘momentum’ but a divergence occured with the Volume to be total the opposite. That move up could potentially be the first leg of an ‘M’ pattern indicating Bullishness. Although being Bullish in most time frames for the EUR/USD, I am not forgetting positive sentiments for the Dollar follwoing the FOMC meetings. I am doubting the formation of a clear pattern forming so ‘when in-doubt, stay out’ which is my strategy for the day.



Gold Forecast

For a Friday, markets are hinting towards the dollar and yen’s downward movement while more investors are betting on the upside move for the Euro, Aussie and Kiwi. What could have been the catalyst for the Comm dolls (Aussie & kiwi) moving upwards? The answer to that is – China’s strong data coming from its government indicating initiatives in the financial sector proven by the increased amount of lending or loans. Isn’t it bizarre how local Australian data such as its labor market report in march didn’t influence it as much as the Chinese data.

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[Liquid Markets]

EUR/USD Forecast

Despite some high-impact data due to be released today, the deadly Boston Marathon blasts has contributed to the decline of the Asian markets together with Japan’s stock indexes falling (approx.2% drop) as did the whole lot including Aussie’s , Oil and Gold prices .This would mean that investors would be more risk averse and be worth for us as traders giving a lookout for less risky currencies seen as safe heavens like the USD, JPY and CHF. Saying that, is this the reason for the short term fall for the euro as in both the 15 min and 1Hr charts below?

lqdmarkets.com/blog/eurusd-forecast-16th-april-2013/

 

[Liquid Markets]

EUR/USD Forecast
The German ZEW report released yesterday missed expectations by 3.2 basis points (a lower expectation), which contributed to the euro falling right after the announcement to levels forecasted following the bearish ‘W’ pattern. As for the euro zone’s CPI for March figures settled at 1.2% MM poses a neutral sentiment with no break above or lower to these levels. For a bigger picture on what is in store for the euro zone, it’s best to see what we concluded from Draghi’s speech based on the following mentioned topics:
1) Updates in Areas of Economic and Monetary Policy – Generic Outlook/ Current Status
Initially, Draghi sounded like a broken record during his speech where he talked about the start of the euro’s recession in 2012, contributing to its unprecedented unemployment levels especially amongst young people. The key point for traders to consider is that gradual recovery is expected but Downside Risks governs. In summary, bearish sentiments are expected and we need to see governments efforts working in synergy with the banks as opposed to just a name and blame game.

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[Liquid Markets]

Yesterday, most traders were hoping for a single answer as to why Euro plunged but that one question may have multiple answers. As mentioned in my previous analysis, comments made by Draghi unfolded bearish sentiments while members of the European Monetary Board (EMU) didn’t sound like they would long the Euro if they were to trade it. Following more news and comments later that evening, German Central Bank’s Jean Weidmann contributed to the further fall of the Euro after hinting the possibility of a ‘rate change’ by the ECB.

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[Liquid Markets]

EUR/JPY Forecast

Friday again, that’s right and whilst wrapping the market for the week, we are still wondering whether volatility for various instruments would provide the persistence in momentum either towards trend continuation or trend reversals. As for today’s Economic data, we are awaiting Bank Of Canada’s (BOC) Consumer Price Index due later on today. However, it would be wise for us to monitor how stocks and the equities markets are performing. Saying that, the S & P 500 which is giving more hints in its’ breakout downwards concluding a Risk Aversion move.

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[Liquid Markets]

EUR/JPY Forecast

Today, despite being two days prior to the close of the trading week, speculations surrounding the possibility of the European rate cut continues to intensify. Similarly, fear of a double recession is supposedly no laughing matter for the UK as it waits for the GDP figures due out later on this afternoon. What a concoction of emotions and with it being a Thursday, does spice up situations even more as traders with open positions would wonder whether their TP level would see to some returns while those itching to trade would feel equally as guilty, despite whatever their decisions were.

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[Liquid Markets]

EUR/JPY Forecast

As we look back at last week’s US economic data, results were overwhelmingly short of expectations. Would the overall bearish sentiment for both the US dollar and the various correlated instruments carry through next week? The implications onto the market from previous as well as upcoming data would most probably show a clearer picture after next week’s Core Consumption Expenditures data. As for the euro zone, Germany is waiting for its’ Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures which would add to the weight of either continuing existing trends or becoming a catalyst to the change of direction.

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[Liquid Markets]

Gold Forecast
Let us begin this week with gold’s movement in the market and match it with its recent performances from a technical or chart patterns point of view. Gold, after its 26 month low, rallied last week driven by retail shoppers in India and China who were shopping for physical gold and jewellery.

 

[ituglobal]

Pro-cyclical currency instruments would normally go northward in bull markets, as prices are breaking more and more supply levels. On the other hand, anti-cyclical currency instruments tend to exhibit a measure of strength only in bear markets, as prices are breaking more and more demand levels. Sometimes a confirmed bias may last longer than one imagines.