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Forex Discussions
Fundamental Analysis
Cross Border Foreign Exchange Intermarket Analysis
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[QUOTE="maximusc, post: 105577, member: 38232"] Trend line breakout (ready for short signal). [ATTACH=full]7789[/ATTACH] Short GBPJPY now. Reason: GBP - Waiting for retracement to go down further. Carney speaking in upbeat terms about longer term prospects for UK economy. Pound still perky with EURGBP losses to 0.8420 again underpinning GBPUSD as is GBPJPY demand in the dips. [LIST] [*]low bond yields reflect hedging of downside risks not necessarily 30 years of stagnation [*]danger for financial stability is that fundamentals will reassert themselves on slope and level of UK bond yield curve [/LIST] JPY - [B]Go big or fail:[/B] Past experience showed that conventional QE did not do the trick. What may change matters is the BoJ leaves the impression of funding fiscal policy beyond the life span of a generation. In this case, Japan's households and corporates would not regard today's fiscal spending as tomorrow's tax bill. It has been Japan's high private sector savings pushing Japan's current account back into surplus and reducing local price expectations. It needs to be seen if Japan is able to develop more radical measures compared to the past to trigger necessary shifts of inflation expectations strong enough to steepen the JGB curve and to undermine JPY. We doubt that and view USDJPY rallies as providing selling opportunities. *Morgan Stanley hit profit-stop today on its USD/JPY short from 106 around 103.60. [/QUOTE]
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