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Capital Trust Markets Daily Market Commentary
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[QUOTE="CapitalTrustMarkets, post: 60057, member: 30235"] [b]EUR/USD poised for long term reversal ahead of Germany, US data[/b] EUR/USD last week faced rejection near the channel resistance of the rising wedge formation. The pair might resume the correction phase this week if the US central bank announces another cut in the stimulus on Wednesday. Ukraine tension could also incite high volatility in the pair. [B]Technical Analysis [/B] EUR/USD is being traded around 1.3901 at 5:00 GMT in Asia. The pair is likely to face strong resistance near 1.3960 which is the channel resistance. An upside breakout through the channel resistance shall expose new highs above the 1.4000 milestone. [IMG]http://charts.mql5.com/4/183/eurusd-ecn-w1-capital-trust-markets.png[/IMG] On the downside, the pair might find strong support around 1.3710 and then the channel support which is currently sitting in near 1.3630. A break and daily close below the channel support could aggravate the bearish momentum targeting the 1.3500 support area. [B]ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment [/B] On Tuesday, ZEW economic survey reports for the Eurozone and Germany are scheduled for release. According to the forecast of different analysts, the economic sentiment in Germany declined to 55.0 points during the current month compared with 55.7 points in the previous month. Similarly, the economic sentiment in the Eurozone fell to 67.3 points this month as compared to 68.5 points last month, the forecast added. Better than expected readings will be bullish for EUR/USD and vice versa. [B]US Inflation Data [/B] The same day i.e. Tuesday, the US labor department is due to release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports for the previous month. According to the forecast, CPI or inflation in the US declined to 1.2% during February as compared to 1.6% in the previous month. On the other hand, CPI excluding food and energy prices –often considered more accurate gauge for inflation—remained steady at 1.6% last month compared with the same reading in the month before. Better (higher) than expected US CPI reports will be bearish for EUR/USD and vice versa. [B]Conclusion [/B] So keeping in view the fundamental and technical analysis, selling around 1.3940-60 or selling on breakout through the channel support around 1.3630-60 could really be a great strategy for EUR/USD. ********* [I]Prepared by Usman Ahmed, Chief Currency Strategist at Capital Trust Markets[/I] [/QUOTE]
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