Capital Street FX — Market Research & Analysis

[CapitalStreet]

Gold Rebounds From a One-Year Low to $3,900, Silver Bounces 2.5%, WTI Slides Below $100 on Iran Talks and the 15:00 GMT ISM Decides What Breaks​

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Metals are bouncing from oversold levels, oil is falling on diplomacy, and the 15:00 GMT ISM is the first catalyst big enough to break the ranges. Gold (3,899.98, +0.64%) is recovering from Friday's one-year low after lower oil eased inflation worries, while silver (50.35, +2.53%) has rebounded from the floor of its falling channel with RSI at 29.39. WTI crude (99.55, −3.29%) has slipped back from the top of a triangle as Iran and Qatar hold a third day of talks, Iran has floated a two-day plan to reopen Hormuz and OPEC+ held December output. Brent is near $110, down about 3%, and analysts warn that a harder US line after Tuesday's midterms could send it toward $120. The dollar index is near 101.7, which helps the metals. Natural gas (2.926, +0.97%) is retesting a cluster of averages between 2.958 and 3.002 after a one-week low under $2.90 on stronger output and storage builds. Copper (6.6002, +0.25%) is holding the middle of a shallow falling channel with no mine or China headline. Wheat (612.8, +0.05%) sits near the floor of its channel with RSI 24.54, the most oversold of the six, as bigger Russian exports pull Chicago toward a four-month low. The scheduled risk is concentrated: the US S&P PMI at 14:45 GMT (56.0), the ISM at 15:00 GMT (54.7 against 54.5, prices paid 77.5), the LBMA gold PM price at 15:00 GMT and USDA export inspections at 17:00 GMT. A firm ISM with sticky prices would revive Fed-hike bets and pressure gold, silver and copper together; oil follows Hormuz headlines more than the data.

Market at a Glance​

Prices as of about 09:42 GMT on 2 November 2026, read from daily charts captured at about 09:40 to 09:42 GMT: TVC for gold, silver and WTI, Capital.com for copper, NYMEX futures for natural gas and Pepperstone for the wheat cash contract (US cents per bushel). A live Investing.com tick could not be pulled, so quotes can differ from Investing.com by a few cents or points across feeds and contracts; they were cross-checked against other sources (spot gold $3,900 to $3,906, silver $50.38 on FXStreet at 09:30 GMT, WTI futures near $100.6 and Brent near $110 on Reuters at 04:07 GMT, copper $6.51 to $6.54 on Kitco and Trading Economics), so check the live quote before trading. Percentage changes are the daily-candle change against the previous close, and the daily candle is still open.

Instrument	Price	Change	Note
Gold (XAU/USD)	3,899.98	+24.79 (+0.64%)	Previous close 3,875.19 — bounces off a one-year low but stays under all three averages inside a falling channel, RSI 32.08
Silver (XAG/USD)	50.35	+1.24 (+2.53%)	Previous close 49.11 — bounces 2.5% from the floor of a falling channel, RSI 29.39 oversold
Copper (COMEX)	6.6002	+0.0163 (+0.25%)	Previous close 6.5840 — holds the middle of a shallow falling channel above the slow average, RSI 46.92
Crude oil (WTI)	99.55	−3.39 (−3.29%)	Previous close 102.94 — slips below $100 from the top of a triangle on Iran–Qatar talks, RSI 55.03
Natural gas (NYMEX)	2.926	+0.028 (+0.97%)	Previous close 2.898 — retests the underside of a broken channel under a cluster of averages, RSI 48.85
Wheat (cash contract)	612.8	+0.3 (+0.05%)	Previous close 612.5 — sits near the floor of a falling channel, RSI 24.54 deeply oversold

What Is Driving the Session​

Gold steadies near $3,900 after a one-year low as lower oil eases inflation worries (High impact — weighs on gold)​

Spot gold rose about 0.6% to near $3,900 in Asian trade, recovering from Friday's drop to a one-year low as lower oil prices eased inflation and rate-hike concerns. Friday's slide of more than 3% was driven by liquidation selling as Fed-hike bets deepened, and Trading Economics has gold at about $3,906 this morning. Source: Reuters via Goodreturns, Trading Economics, USAGOLD, 30 October–2 November 2026.

Silver rebounds 2.5% above $50 after a near-6% Friday plunge (High impact — lifts silver)​

FXStreet data at 09:30 GMT has silver at $50.38, up 2.54% from Friday's $49.13, and the gold/silver ratio at 77.41 against 78.87 on Friday. Silver fell nearly twice as fast as gold on Friday as hawkish Fed signals and equity liquidation hit the metal, and it is still down about 29% on the year. Source: FXStreet, USAGOLD, 30 October–2 November 2026.

Copper edges up as the dollar eases, with the ISM the first big test for industrial metals (Medium impact — range-bound)​

The dollar index is near 101.7 and copper is firmer on the day, but there is no mine or China-specific headline this morning. Quotes differ by feed: Kitco shows $6.54 a pound around 08:54 GMT and Trading Economics about $6.51 to $6.53, against the $6.60 on the chart feed used here. Source: Kitco, Trading Economics, Goodreturns, 2 November 2026.

Oil drops more than 3% as Iran and Qatar hold a third day of talks (High impact — weighs on oil)​

Reuters had Brent down 3.2% at $109.75 and WTI down 3.3% at $100.69 by 04:07 GMT, after OPEC+ kept December output unchanged on Sunday. Iran's foreign minister said the talks are progressing, and Iran floated a plan to reopen Hormuz in two days. Brent ended October at a six-month high, and analysts warn it could test $120 if the US takes a harder line after Tuesday's midterms. Source: Reuters via Business Recorder and Pajhwok, FXStreet, FinanceFeeds, 2 November 2026.

US natural gas dips toward a one-week low as output and storage builds outweigh LNG demand (Medium impact — weighs on gas)​

Trading Economics reports US gas slipping under $2.90 per MMBtu, a one-week low, as recovering domestic production and stronger-than-expected storage additions outweighed support from rising LNG exports. December is now the front month, and Henry Hub spot fell to its lowest since November 2024 in late October. Source: Trading Economics, P&GJ, 2 November 2026.

Chicago wheat retreats toward a four-month low on the Russian export outlook (Medium impact — weighs on wheat)​

Chicago wheat futures eased on Monday toward last week's four-month low as expectations of bigger Russian exports outweighed strong demand for US grain. The market has just posted a ninth straight weekly loss, while corn and soybeans bounced on bargain buying after sharp declines. Source: Reuters via Business Recorder, 2 November 2026.

Trade Setups​

All levels are conditional technical references for educational discussion only and do not constitute personal investment advice. Setups are listed in the order gold, silver, copper, crude oil, natural gas and wheat and are valid until 21:00 GMT today. A 4-hour close beyond the stop cancels the idea (a daily close for wheat), and daily candles close at 22:00 GMT. Reward:risk is the distance from entry to each target divided by the distance from entry to the stop; three targets are shown for each market. Every entry sits away from the current price and needs a bounce or a pullback to trigger, and the 15:00 GMT ISM release can gap prices through them. Silver, copper and wheat are counter-trend dip-buys and gold, WTI and natural gas are sell-the-bounce ideas, so a hot ISM print would hit the three longs together. The "Exit if" lines are the source's own cancel conditions and risk notes. All times are GMT.

Gold (XAU/USD) — 3,899.98 (+0.64%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 3,985 to 4,087 caps (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 3,985.00
• Stop: 4,045.00
• Target: 3,920.00, then 3,875.00, then 3,830.00
• Reward:risk: 1.1 / 1.8 / 2.6

Thesis
Price sits in the lower half of a falling channel after Friday's sharp drop, with the channel floor near 3,770 to 3,780 and the top line above 4,100, far under the 4,087.16 fast, 4,209.54 medium and 4,244.65 slow averages. RSI at 32.08 is under its 38.75 average: weak and near oversold. A close above 4,087 breaks the channel top; a break under 3,874 targets 3,830. Gold is near 3,900 after Friday's liquidation-driven drop to a one-year low, with lower oil easing inflation worries and a Fed-hike debate still weighing on the metal. Support sits at 3,874.30 and 3,830.00, resistance at 3,919.30 and 4,087.16.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 4,045, or a soft ISM print that drags US yields and the dollar lower.
• Gold is near oversold, so take profit quickly on the first targets.

Silver (XAG/USD) — 50.35 (+2.53%)​

Stance: Buy dips — a short-term bounce while 48.00 holds, inside a bigger downtrend (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 49.20
• Stop: 47.90
• Target: 50.55, then 52.00, then 54.00
• Reward:risk: 1.0 / 2.2 / 3.7

Thesis
Price touched the lower edge of a falling channel on Friday and is bouncing, with RSI under 30. The 56.29 fast and 61.38 and 61.44 medium and slow averages are well above price. RSI at 29.39 is under its 33.65 average: oversold. A close above 52.00 extends the bounce; a close under 48.00 breaks the channel floor. Silver is near 50.35 after Friday's drop of nearly 6% below $50, and the gold/silver ratio has eased to about 77.4 from 78.9 on Friday. This is a counter-trend dip-buy, so keep size small. Support sits at 48.00 and 49.11, resistance at 50.55 and 56.30.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close below 47.90, or a hot ISM print that pushes the dollar and yields higher.
• A close under 48.00 breaks the channel floor.

Copper (COMEX) — 6.6002 (+0.25%)​

Stance: Buy dips — neutral to higher on dips while 6.5541 holds (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 6.5600
• Stop: 6.4600
• Target: 6.6700, then 6.7600, then 6.8300
• Reward:risk: 1.1 / 2.0 / 2.7

Thesis
Price is drifting inside a shallow falling channel, with the floor near 6.46 and the top near 6.83, and sits just under the 6.6593 and 6.6705 averages and above the 6.5541 slow average. RSI at 46.92 is under its 47.90 average: neutral. A close above 6.6705 targets 6.83; a close under 6.5541 opens 6.46. Copper is near 6.60 with no mine or China headline this morning, so the 15:00 GMT ISM and the dollar are the main drivers. Support sits at 6.5541 and 6.4600, resistance at 6.6593 and 6.8300.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close below 6.46, or a hot ISM print with a sharply firmer dollar.
• The trade is unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.

Crude Oil (WTI) — 99.55 (−3.29%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 102.75 to 104.50 caps, but headline risk is two-way (low to medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 102.60
• Stop: 104.80
• Target: 99.50, then 97.30, then 94.40
• Reward:risk: 1.4 / 2.4 / 3.7

Thesis
Price was rejected at the falling top line near 104 and is sliding back toward the rising trendline and the 97.34 and 94.42 averages. It is above the 97.34 fast, 94.42 medium and 86.70 slow averages. RSI at 55.03 is under its 61.06 average: neutral and turning down. A close above 104.50 breaks the triangle top and targets 110; a break under 97.34 targets 94.42. WTI is near 99.55 as Iran–Qatar talks reach a third day and Iran floats a plan to reopen Hormuz in two days, after OPEC+ held December output. Support sits at 97.34 and 94.42, resistance at 102.75 and 104.50.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 104.80.
• The Iran–Qatar talks collapse or a new Hormuz tanker attack is reported.
• The trade is unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.

Natural Gas (NYMEX) — 2.926 (+0.97%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 2.958 to 3.002 caps (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 2.985
• Stop: 3.080
• Target: 2.850, then 2.700, then 2.500
• Reward:risk: 1.4 / 3.0 / 5.1

Thesis
Price broke out of a rising channel in late October, bottomed near 2.50 and is now retesting the cluster of averages between 2.958 and 3.002, under the clustered 2.958, 2.967 and 3.002 averages. RSI at 48.85 is above its 45.44 average: neutral. A close above 3.002 cancels the short; a break under 2.851 targets 2.70. Natural gas is near 2.926 after a dip to 2.851, and output, storage and LNG feedgas are the main catalysts. Support sits at 2.851 and 2.500, resistance at 2.958 and 3.002.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 3.080, or a colder weather revision that lifts demand sharply.
• The trade is unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.

Wheat (cash contract) — 612.8 (+0.05%)​

Stance: Buy dips — lower while 650 caps, but a bounce is likely from oversold levels (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 600.0
• Stop: 584.0
• Target: 620.0, then 637.0, then 652.6
• Reward:risk: 1.2 / 2.3 / 3.3

Thesis
Price has fallen from the 790s in early September and is hugging the lower half of a falling channel, with the floor near 590 and the fast average at 652.6, far under the 652.6 fast, 671.2 medium and 697.4 slow averages. RSI at 24.54 is under its 29.34 average: deeply oversold. A close above 652.6 breaks the channel top; a close under 590 breaks the floor. Wheat is near 612.8 cents after a ninth straight weekly decline and a retreat toward a four-month low on bigger Russian export expectations. The main catalyst is the Russian export outlook against firm US export demand. Support sits at 590.0 and 610.7, resistance at 614.4 and 652.6.
Exit if

• A daily close below 584, or Russian export news that adds fresh selling pressure.
• The trade is unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.

What to Watch — Rest of Today​

All times are GMT. US daylight saving time ended on 1 November, so 10:00 ET equals 15:00 GMT.

Time	Event	Note
Ongoing, all session	Iran–Qatar talks and Hormuz headlines	Third day of talks; Iran has floated a two-day Hormuz reopening plan. A breakthrough extends the oil slide, while a collapse or a new tanker attack reverses it quickly
Mon 2 Nov, 14:45 GMT	US S&P Global manufacturing PMI (final)	Forecast 56.0, matching the flash; it sets up the ISM release 15 minutes later
Mon 2 Nov, 15:00 GMT	US ISM manufacturing PMI, prices, employment	Forecast 54.7 (prior 54.5); prices paid 77.5 (prior 77.9). A hot print pressures gold, silver and copper through yields and the dollar; a miss supports them
Mon 2 Nov, 15:00 GMT	LBMA gold PM price	The afternoon London auction sets the benchmark and often coincides with the ISM, so spot gold can swing around 15:00 GMT
Mon 2 Nov, 17:00 GMT	USDA weekly export inspections	Routine weekly Monday release; firm US wheat loadings would offset some of the Russian export pressure
Mon 2 Nov, 22:00 GMT	Daily close	Daily candles close at 22:00 GMT, which is the reference for the cancel levels in the setups
Tue 3 Nov	US midterm elections	A harder US line after the midterms could send Brent toward $120

Analyst View — Rest of Session​

Monday's commodities session is bouncing from oversold levels, with oil falling on diplomacy. The trend is lower in gold, WTI and natural gas, so CSFX prefers selling bounces near 3,985, 102.60 and 2.985, with gold the least stretched because RSI is close to oversold. Silver near 49.20, copper near 6.56 and wheat near 600.0 are dip-buys at or near channel floors, all at low conviction against the trend.
The ISM at 15:00 GMT and the Iran–Qatar talks are the swing factors for the rest of today. In a strong ISM and firm yields scenario, a reading above the 54.7 forecast, especially with prices paid near 77.5 or higher, would back Fed-hike bets and push gold, silver, copper and wheat toward support, while oil would also lean lower with the dollar, but a Hormuz setback would override that: gold at 3,874.30 then 3,830.00, silver at 49.11 then 48.00, copper at 6.5541 then 6.4600, WTI crude at 97.34 then 94.42, natural gas at 2.851 then 2.700 and wheat at 610.7 then 590.0.
A 4-hour close over 4,045 in gold or under 47.90 in silver would change the picture. Size smaller into the US S&P PMI at 14:45 GMT, the ISM and LBMA gold PM price at 15:00 GMT and USDA export inspections at 17:00 GMT, with Iran–Qatar headlines able to move oil at any time. Trade the levels, not the headlines.
Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/daily-commodity-report-02-nov-2026

 

[CapitalStreet]

Bitcoin Clings to 77,800 After the Record $6.3B Binance Hack, ETFs Shed $643M and Ether Lost Its Trendline​

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Crypto is bouncing, not recovering: all five coins still trade under their key averages, Friday's ETF exodus has not reversed, and the 15:00 GMT ISM is the one scheduled shock big enough to decide whether the Friday lows hold or give way. At 11:30 GMT, Bitcoin (77,776, -0.58%) is defending the 76,546 slow average in the lower half of a falling channel after a flush toward 76,300, with RSI at 38.10 and 80,555 the ceiling. Ether (2,281.9, +0.41%) is the only coin in the green but is stuck under the rising trendline it lost on Friday. Solana (93.92, -0.50%) is pinned to its triangle floor near 92 with RSI at 28.52, the most oversold of the five, XRP (1.2488, -0.02%) hovers just above its 1.21 floor, and Litecoin (54.78, -1.31%) is the weakest. The damage is in the flows: Binance began reopening withdrawals on Sunday after the record $6.3B theft, yet about $3.6B left the exchange in the first nine hours, and spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $643M on Friday, their worst day since 25 June. With a December Fed hike priced near 72% and Friday's 2.9% Nasdaq drop, the market has little cushion.

Market at a Glance​

Feed prices from the daily charts at about 11:22–11:24 GMT on 2 November 2026 (Bitstamp for Bitcoin, Ether, XRP and Litecoin; Coinbase for Solana). A live Investing.com tick could not be pulled, so quotes can differ by a small margin across feeds. Changes are the daily-candle change against the previous close (the 00:00 GMT open), and the daily candle is still open, so rolling 24-hour figures differ. Levels are in US dollars.

Instrument	Price	Change	Note
Bitcoin	$77,776	-0.58%	Prev close 78,233 — holds the 76,546 slow average in the lower half of a falling channel, RSI 38.10
Ether	$2,281.9	+0.41%	Prev close 2,272.6 — retests the broken rising trendline under the 2,348.70 average, RSI 36.43
Solana	$93.92	-0.50%	Prev close 94.39 — on the rising triangle floor near 92 under all three averages, RSI 28.52
XRP	$1.2488	-0.02%	Prev close 1.2490 — holds just above the 1.21 triangle floor, RSI 37.02
Litecoin	$54.78	-1.31%	Prev close 55.51 — slips to the 55.02 slow average at the triangle floor, RSI 36.80

Other markers: total crypto market cap is $2.69 trillion with Bitcoin dominance at 58.5% (CoinGecko, 01:30 GMT), and the Fear & Greed Index has risen to 37 from 30, still in fear.

What Is Driving the Session​

Binance reopens withdrawals in phases, but about $3.6B has left​

Binance began restoring withdrawals on Sunday, starting with Bitcoin, after the record $6.3B theft of 29 October, which took 18,270 BTC and 200,630 ETH among other assets. The Block put net outflows at about $3.64B in the first nine and a half hours. Roughly $3B of the stolen funds has been frozen, Binance has set aside $6.34B of its own money to cover losses, and Reuters reported analysts blaming North Korea. Further outflow figures, news on frozen funds or any new delay would move the whole market.

ETF flows stay negative for Bitcoin and Ether​

Spot Bitcoin funds shed $643.3M on Friday, the largest daily outflow in four months, and spot Ether funds lost $155.9M in a fifth straight session of outflows. Analysts quoted by The Block called it a sentiment shock, since the fund holdings sit with regulated custodians, but the numbers show institutions have not returned yet. The daily flow prints come after today's US close.

Fed hike odds and a Nasdaq drop keep risk appetite low​

Early Monday reporting put the chance of a December Fed hike near 72%, with elevated oil and sticky inflation keeping tightening in focus. Friday's 2.9% Nasdaq slide, tied to AI spending worries, fed into crypto, and CoinGlass counted about $1.53B of liquidations over the 24 hours to 30 October, around 84% of them longs.

Solana weakens, XRP holds, Litecoin slides on beta​

Solana has extended losses to a fifth straight weekly decline, with spot Solana ETFs recording weekly outflows of $71.47M. XRP holds 1.25 as spot XRP funds drew $18.83M of inflows despite a roughly 16% October loss, Ripple released 1 billion XRP from escrow on 1 November (the re-lock amount is still to be confirmed), and Ripple National Trust Bank received final OCC approval with BNY adding XRP and RLUSD custody support. No coin-specific headline was found for Litecoin, so it appears to be trading on market beta.

Trade Setups​

All levels are conditional technical references for educational discussion only and do not constitute personal investment advice. Setups are valid until 21:00 GMT today and are cancelled if unfilled by then, and all times are GMT. Every entry sits away from the current price and needs a bounce or a pullback to trigger. Bitcoin and XRP are counter-trend dip-buys and Ether, Solana and Litecoin are sell-the-bounce ideas, and the five coins are highly correlated, so a break of Bitcoin's 76,300 floor would hit both longs together. The "Exit if" lines use each setup's own cancel condition in the source.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) — $77,776 (-0.58%)​

Stance: Buy dips — range-bound with a lower tilt, counter-trend (low-to-medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 76,400
• Stop: 75,300
• Target: 77,800, then 79,200, then 80,550
• Reward:risk: 1.3 / 2.5 / 3.8

Thesis
Price sits in the lower half of a falling channel just above the 76,546 slow average, with the 80,555 and 81,934 averages overhead and the channel floor near 75,000. RSI at 38.10 is under its 43.17 average, weak but not oversold. The dip-buy is at the slow average and Friday's low, and a close under 76,300 opens 75,000.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close below 75,300.
• A hot ISM print lifts the Dollar and yields.

Ether (ETH/USD) — $2,281.9 (+0.41%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 2,348.70–2,359.10 caps (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 2,335.00
• Stop: 2,400.00
• Target: 2,270.00, then 2,200.00, then 2,150.00
• Reward:risk: 1.0 / 2.1 / 2.8

Thesis
Price broke below the rising trendline from the June low on Friday and retests it from below, with the falling top line near 2,600, under the 2,348.70, 2,359.10 and 2,511.40 averages. RSI at 36.43 is flat and weak. ETF outflows (-$155.9M on Friday) and the Binance hack (200,630 ETH taken) weigh, and a break under 2,266 targets 2,200 and 2,175.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 2,400.
• Binance reserve news triggers a broad short squeeze.

Solana (SOL/USD) — $93.92 (-0.50%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 98.38–101.43 caps, with a sharp bounce possible (low-to-medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 97.00
• Stop: 99.60
• Target: 94.00, then 92.00, then 86.00
• Reward:risk: 1.2 / 1.9 / 4.2

Thesis
Price is pressing the rising trendline from the June low near 92 inside a triangle, with the falling top line near 108, under the 98.38, 101.43 and 108.84 averages. RSI at 28.52 is oversold, so take profit quickly at the first targets. A close under 92.00 breaks the triangle floor and targets 86.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 99.60.
• RSI turns up from oversold with a firm Bitcoin.

XRP (XRP/USD) — $1.2488 (-0.02%)​

Stance: Buy dips — neutral-to-lower while 1.2982–1.3050 caps, counter-trend (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 1.2250
• Stop: 1.1850
• Target: 1.2700, then 1.2950, then 1.3300
• Reward:risk: 1.1 / 1.7 / 2.6

Thesis
Price is coiling between the rising floor near 1.21 and the falling top line near 1.43, with all three averages overhead (1.2982, 1.3050, 1.3882). RSI at 37.02 is weak. The dip-buy is at 1.2250 above the triangle floor, stop under Friday's low, and a close under 1.21 breaks the floor and opens 1.10. Keep size small.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close below 1.1850.
• A hot ISM print with a firm Dollar.

Litecoin (LTC/USD) — $54.78 (-1.31%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 55.02–57.98 caps (low-to-medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 56.60
• Stop: 58.30
• Target: 54.90, then 53.20, then 51.50
• Reward:risk: 1.0 / 2.0 / 3.0

Thesis
Price is on the rising floor of a triangle after Friday's wick through it, with the falling top line near 58 and the 57.98 and 61.68 averages above. RSI at 36.80 is weak. Sell the bounce at 56.60 above today's high, and a close under 53.00 breaks the triangle floor and targets 49.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 58.30.
• A sharp Bitcoin squeeze through 80,555.

What to Watch — Rest of Today​

Time	Event	Note
Ongoing	Binance withdrawals and hack headlines	Withdrawals reopened in phases from Sunday, further outflows or a new delay would move the whole market
Mon 2 Nov, 14:30 GMT	US equities open	After Friday's 2.9% Nasdaq drop, the cash open sets the risk tone
Mon 2 Nov, 14:45 GMT	US S&P Global manufacturing PMI (final)	Forecast 56.0, sets up the ISM
Mon 2 Nov, 15:00 GMT	US ISM manufacturing PMI	Forecast 54.7 (prior 54.5), prices paid 77.5, a hot print lifts December hike odds
Mon 2 Nov, after the US close	US spot ETF flow prints	A second heavy outflow day would deepen the bearish tone
Tue 3 Nov, 00:00 GMT	Daily close	Reference for the daily levels, setups lapse at 21:00 GMT

Analyst View — Rest of Session​

The trend is still lower, so CSFX prefers selling bounces in Ether near 2,335, Solana near 97.00 and Litecoin near 56.60, with Solana the most stretched because RSI is oversold. Bitcoin near 76,400 and XRP near 1.2250 are dip-buys at the slow average and the triangle floor, both at low conviction against the trend.
A strong ISM print and firm yields, especially a reading above 54.7 with prices paid near 77.5 or higher, would lift December Fed-hike odds beyond 72% and push all five coins toward their triangle and channel floors: Bitcoin at 76,546 then 75,000, Ether at 2,266.10 then 2,175.00, Solana at 92.00 then 86.00, XRP at 1.2100 then 1.1000 and Litecoin at 53.00 then 49.00. Another large Binance outflow day or a weak US equity open would add to the pressure, while a soft print opens a squeeze toward 79,200 to 80,555 in Bitcoin.
A 4-hour close under 75,300 in Bitcoin or above 2,400 in Ether would change the picture. Size smaller into US equities at 14:30 GMT, the S&P PMI at 14:45 GMT and the ISM at 15:00 GMT, and check the live quote before trading.
Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/daily-crypto-report-02-nov-2026

 

[CapitalStreet]

Wall Street Rebounds From AI Rout as Oil Plunges on US-Iran Talks: Dow Surges 1%, S&P 500 Holds 7,618, DAX Tests 26,000 With Apple, Palantir and the Midterms Next​

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Wall Street is staging a sharp, oil-fuelled rebound from last week's $5 trillion AI rout: the Dow is up about 1% and the Nasdaq more than 1% as crude plunges on US-Iran diplomacy hopes, but the S&P 500 is clinging to its 7,618.79 slow average and the real tests land after the bell, with Apple and Palantir results tonight and the US midterm elections tomorrow. As of about 16:20 GMT, the Dow (52,288, +1.00%) sits above its 52,198.48 and 52,055.51 averages, and the S&P 500 (7,631, +0.68%) is only about 12 points above its 7,618.79 slow average and under 7,696.52 and 7,723.53. At 16:02 GMT the FTSE 100 (10,767.76, +0.35%) was holding mid-range, the DAX 40 (25,993.71, +0.68%) was pressing 26,000 above three averages, and the Hang Seng closed at 23,393.32 (+0.42%) and remains under all three of its averages inside a falling channel. Oil is the engine. Brent has fallen about 6% to roughly $106 and WTI is near $97, after Secretary of State Rubio said Trump would rather end the Iran war peacefully, Iran's foreign minister said a deal is possible if Washington shows goodwill, and Qatar-mediated talks have continued. Brent traded above $114 on Friday. Cheaper crude has pulled the 10-year Treasury yield down about 4 basis points to 4.884% and the dollar index 0.35% lower to 101.60, while ISM prices paid eased to 75.2 from 77.9. The risk is that the market had priced in escalation after the midterms, so any sign that diplomacy is stalling would reverse the move fast. The Fed held at 3.75% to 4.00% on 28 October with two dissents in favour of a hike, and a December hike is still priced near 70%. Europe closes at 16:30 GMT, Apple and Palantir report after the 21:00 GMT US close, the midterms follow tomorrow, the Bank of England decides this week and the US jobs report lands on Friday.

Market at a Glance​

Prices as of 2 November 2026, read from daily charts captured between 15:48 and 16:04 GMT: TVC for the Dow Jones, SP for the S&P 500, FTSE for the FTSE 100, XETR for the DAX 40 and HSI for the Hang Seng, which is shown at its 08:00 GMT close. The Dow and S&P 500 move on to about 52,288 (+1.00%) and 7,631 (+0.68%) by 16:15 to 16:21 GMT, as quoted in the text. A live Investing.com tick could not be pulled, so quotes can differ from Investing.com by a small margin across feeds; they were cross-checked against other sources (S&P 500 7,648.28 and Dow 52,377.33 on Yahoo Finance during the US session; Hang Seng close 23,393.32 on Yahoo Finance and Xinhua), so check the live quote before trading. Percentage changes are the daily-candle change against the previous close. All prices are index points.

Instrument	Price	Change	Note
Dow Jones (US30 / DJI)	52,372.25	+597.08 (+1.15%)	At 15:48 GMT — previous close 51,775.17 — squeezes into the apex of a symmetrical triangle above the 52,198.48 and 52,055.51 averages, RSI 53.37
S&P 500 (SPX)	7,646.52	+66.45 (+0.88%)	At 15:49 GMT — previous close 7,580.07 — reclaims the 7,618.79 slow average but stays under the 7,696.52 and 7,723.53 averages inside a rising channel, RSI 45.91
FTSE 100 (UK100 / UKX)	10,767.76	+37.98 (+0.35%)	At 16:02 GMT — previous close 10,729.78 — holds mid-range inside an ascending triangle under the 10,890 and 10,990 highs
DAX 40 (GER40 / DAX)	25,993.71	+175.50 (+0.68%)	At 16:03 GMT — previous close 25,818.21 — tests 26,000 above a cluster of averages inside a rising channel, RSI 59.28
Hang Seng (HK50 / HSI)	23,393.32	+98.90 (+0.42%)	08:00 GMT close — previous close 23,294.42 — bounces off the channel floor but stays under the 23,708.53 average inside a falling channel, RSI 41.37

What Is Driving the Session​

Oil plunges about 6% as the US and Iran signal talks, with Brent near $106 and WTI near $97 (High impact — supports risk)​

Crude fell to session lows after Secretary of State Rubio said Trump would prefer to end the Iran war peacefully and has not decided on an attack, while Iran's foreign minister said a deal is possible if Washington shows goodwill after two days of Qatar-mediated talks. Axios reported Trump told Netanyahu he would give diplomacy more time. Brent traded above $114 on Friday after jumping about 14% in October, and analysts note the market had priced in escalation after the midterms, so a sharp unwind is possible if none follows. Falling energy costs are lifting airlines, consumer and industrial shares and easing yields, but they are pressing BP and Shell in London. Source: CNBC, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, Axios via The National, Saxo, 2 November 2026.

Wall Street rebounds from its worst session since June: Dow up about 1%, S&P 500 up about 0.7%, Nasdaq up more than 1% (High impact — supports US indices)​

US stocks opened higher as tech bounced from a rout that took the Nasdaq down 5.2% in October and wiped about $5 trillion from AI-linked shares. Friday's drop took the S&P 500 down 1.82% and the Nasdaq down 2.86%, and the S&P 500 posted a third straight weekly loss. Energy is the main laggard while consumer discretionary, materials and industrials lead. Strategists describe the recovery as a willingness to buy weakness, but confidence in tech is still fragile. Source: Yahoo Finance, Investrade, TheStreet, CNBC, 2 November 2026.

Apple and Palantir report after the US close, with Apple worth about $5 trillion and the only Magnificent Seven stock beating the S&P 500 this year (High impact — binary risk after the close)​

Apple is expected to report EPS near $2.00 on revenue of about $113.4 billion, with iPhone 18 sales and guidance in focus, and its shares are slightly lower ahead of the print. Palantir is expected to report EPS of $0.41 on revenue of about $2.18 billion after its shares fell 6.3% on Friday. Strong results could stabilise the Nasdaq, while weak guidance could quickly undo today's rebound, so these will drive after-hours futures and tomorrow's Asian open rather than today's cash levels. Source: Yahoo Finance, Benzinga, Bloomberg consensus, 2 November 2026.

US midterm elections tomorrow, the Bank of England decision and Friday's jobs report make this a week packed with catalysts (High impact — event risk)​

Tuesday's midterms are the biggest political event of the week, and investors will watch the balance of power in Congress. History offers some comfort, as the S&P 500 has risen in all 19 November-to-April windows after a midterm election. The Bank of England decides on rates this week, and the October jobs report on Friday is forecast at roughly 62,000 jobs with unemployment steady. Source: Yahoo Finance, Benzinga, Share Talk, 2 November 2026.

US factory data stays firm, but prices paid ease to 75.2 and the dollar and yields slip (Medium impact — mixed for USD and yields)​

ISM manufacturing showed new orders at 55.5, up from 55.3, and employment at 52.4, down from 52.7, while prices paid eased to 75.2 from 77.9, still elevated on energy costs and tariffs. A separate S&P Global survey also showed factory expansion at a slower pace. The easing in prices paid, plus cheaper oil, has kept the data from reviving hike bets, and the dollar index is down 0.35% at 101.60. Source: ISM, Yahoo Finance, ActionForex, FXStreet, 2 November 2026.

The Fed held at 3.75% to 4.00% last week with two hike dissents, and a December hike is still priced near 70% (Medium impact — caps the rally)​

Cook and Hammack voted for a quarter-point rise on 28 October. Polymarket put a December hike at about 69.5% on Sunday night. With the 10-year yield at 4.884% and the 2-year at 4.585% after the morning drop, any oil rebound that lifts yields again would be the quickest way to stall the equity bounce. Source: Rio Times (Polymarket data), CNBC, 2 November 2026.

Europe edges higher into the 16:30 GMT close as Alstom plunges, energy lags and airlines gain (Medium impact — mixed for Europe)​

London was little changed through the morning with BP and Shell down 1% to 2% on crude and IAG up about 2% on cheaper fuel, before the FTSE 100 turned higher into the afternoon. Alstom fell about 27% after cutting its margin outlook, while Lufthansa and Air France gained. At 16:02 to 16:03 GMT the DAX was up 0.68% and the FTSE 100 up 0.35%. Source: Reuters, Investing.com, Share Talk, Maaal, 2 November 2026.

Hang Seng closes up 0.42% at 23,393.32, led by a 2.25% jump in the Tech Index (Medium impact — supports Hang Seng)​

Technology, semiconductor, optical-communications and lithium-battery names supported the market on turnover of HKD 204.84 billion, while Bank of China and Bank of China Hong Kong were among the weakest constituents. Investors are still weighing AI-spending concerns, upcoming US earnings and possible Chinese capital-market support. Hong Kong reopens at 01:30 GMT. Source: Xinhua via NAMPA, Yahoo Finance, 2 November 2026.

Trade Setups​

All levels are conditional technical references for educational discussion only and do not constitute personal investment advice. Setups are listed in the order Dow Jones, S&P 500, FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Hang Seng and are valid until 21:00 GMT today. A 4-hour close beyond the stop cancels the idea, and each is cancelled if unfilled by 21:00 GMT. Reward:risk is the distance from entry to each target divided by the distance from entry to the stop; three targets are shown for each index. Every entry sits away from the current price and needs a pullback or a bounce to trigger. The Dow, FTSE 100 and DAX ideas are dip-buys and the S&P 500 and Hang Seng ideas are sell-the-bounce, so the five indices are highly correlated and an oil rebound or a Wall Street reversal would hit the longs together. The Hang Seng idea can only trigger on CFDs or futures because Hong Kong cash is closed until 01:30 GMT. The "Exit if" lines are the source's own cancel conditions and risk notes. All times are GMT.

Dow Jones (US30 / DJI) — 52,372.25 (+1.15%)​

Stance: Buy dips — higher while 52,055 holds, with 52,800 the cap (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 52,050
• Stop: 51,550
• Target: 52,550, then 52,800, then 53,150
• Reward:risk: 1.0 / 1.5 / 2.2

Thesis
Price is inside a symmetrical triangle, between a falling top line near 52,800 and the rising floor from the April low near 51,400, level with the 52,396.51 average. It is above the 52,198.48 and 52,055.51 averages. RSI at 53.37 is under its 54.33 average: neutral. A close above 52,800 breaks the triangle top and targets 52,950 and 53,850; a close under 51,400 breaks the floor and opens 50,500. The Dow is up 1.15% at 52,372, recovering most of Friday's 1.09% loss as oil sinks and megacap tech rebounds, and the ISM data has not derailed the bid. Dip-buy at 52,050 on the averages, with the stop 51,550 near the triangle floor. Support sits at 52,055.51 and 51,400, resistance at 52,800 and 53,850.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close below 51,550, or a sharp oil rebound that revives Fed-hike bets.
• The trade is unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.

S&P 500 (SPX) — 7,646.52 (+0.88%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — range-bound with an upside tilt while 7,618 holds, and 7,696 to 7,724 caps (low to medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 7,700
• Stop: 7,745
• Target: 7,650, then 7,620, then 7,560
• Reward:risk: 1.1 / 1.8 / 3.1

Thesis
Price is in the lower half of a rising channel from the late-July low, back above the 7,618.79 slow average after Friday's wick toward 7,500, with the channel top near 7,990. It is above the 7,618.79 average and under the 7,696.52 and 7,723.53 averages. RSI at 45.91 is under its 47.96 average: soft but off Friday's low. A close above 7,723.53 targets 7,830; a close under 7,618.79 reopens 7,500. The index is up 0.88% at 7,646.52 after Friday's 1.82% drop, its worst session since June, with megacaps rebounding while Apple trades lower ahead of its results. Sell the bounce at 7,700 between the 7,696.52 and 7,723.53 averages, with the stop 7,745 above the upper average. This runs against today's bid, so keep size small. Support sits at 7,618.79 and 7,500, resistance at 7,723.53 and 7,830.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 7,745, or oil keeps sliding with yields lower.
• The trade is unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.

FTSE 100 (UK100 / UKX) — 10,767.76 (+0.35%)​

Stance: Buy dips — range-bound while 10,640 holds and 10,890 caps (low to medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 10,690
• Stop: 10,620
• Target: 10,770, then 10,890, then 10,990
• Reward:risk: 1.1 / 2.9 / 4.3

Thesis
Price sits mid-range in an ascending triangle, between a flat top near 10,990 to 11,010 and a rising trendline near 10,470, with the October high near 10,890 as the first hurdle. It is above today's low of 10,684.69 and under the 10,890 October high and the 10,990 record area from July. No RSI reading is visible on this chart. A close above 10,890 targets 10,990; a close under 10,640 puts the 10,470 trendline in play. The FTSE is up 0.35% at 10,767.76 after opening lower with BP and Shell weaker as crude fell, then turning higher into the 16:30 GMT London close. Dip-buy at 10,690 near today's low of 10,684.69, with the stop 10,620 under the recent range floor. Support sits at 10,640 and 10,470, resistance at 10,890 and 10,990.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close below 10,620, or a broad risk-off turn on Wall Street.
• The trade is unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.

DAX 40 (GER40 / DAX) — 25,993.71 (+0.68%)​

Stance: Buy dips — higher while 25,522 holds, with 26,022 and 26,520 the hurdles (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 25,650
• Stop: 25,430
• Target: 25,990, then 26,250, then 26,520
• Reward:risk: 1.5 / 2.7 / 4.0

Thesis
Price is pressing the 26,022 high above three averages clustered between 25,433.45 and 25,576.70, in the middle of a rising channel from the March low, with the floor near 24,800. It is above the 25,576.70, 25,522.91 and 25,433.45 averages. RSI at 59.28 is above its 52.69 average: firm, not overbought. A close above 26,022 targets 26,520; a close under 25,522.91 puts the 24,800 channel floor in play. The DAX is up 0.68% at 25,993.71, extending its rebound from the October low after Friday's 0.9% loss, with cheaper oil having helped airlines such as Lufthansa earlier today. Dip-buy at 25,650 above the cluster of averages, with the stop 25,430 under the lowest one. Support sits at 25,522.91 and 24,800, resistance at 26,022 and 26,520.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close below 25,430, or a Wall Street reversal after the European close.
• The trade is unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.

Hang Seng (HK50 / HSI) — 23,393.32 (+0.42%, 08:00 GMT close)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 23,708 caps (low to medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 23,700
• Stop: 24,000
• Target: 23,250, then 22,950, then 22,750
• Reward:risk: 1.5 / 2.5 / 3.2

Thesis
Price is in the lower half of a falling channel from the August high, bouncing from the October low near 22,750, with the 23,708.53 average overhead and the channel top near 24,700. It is under the 23,708.53, 24,529.81 and 24,603.92 averages. RSI at 41.37 is above its 36.71 average: turning up from weak. A close above 23,708.53 targets 24,529.81; a close under 22,750 opens 22,518, the 52-week low. The index closed up 0.42% with the Hang Seng Tech Index up 2.25% while banks lagged, but it is still under all three of its averages. Sell the bounce at 23,700 at the 23,708.53 average, with the stop 24,000. The Hong Kong cash market is shut until 01:30 GMT, so this idea can only trigger on CFDs or futures. Support sits at 22,750 and 23,250, resistance at 23,708.53 and 24,529.81.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 24,000, or a strong Wall Street close.
• The trade is unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.

What to Watch — Rest of Today and the Week​

All times are GMT. US daylight saving time ended on 1 November, so 10:00 ET equals 15:00 GMT. The Apple and Palantir results time is described only as after the US close.

Time	Event	Note
Ongoing, all session	Oil and US-Iran headlines	Brent is down roughly 6% to 7% on diplomacy hopes. A stall in talks would reverse the bid; progress would extend it
Mon 2 Nov, 16:30 GMT	European cash close	Sets the daily close for the FTSE 100 and DAX 40, with the DAX holding 26,000 the key test
Ongoing, all session	US yields and the dollar after the ISM	The 10-year yield is near 4.88% and the dollar index near 101.60; a reversal higher would pressure the S&P 500 first
Mon 2 Nov, after 21:00 GMT	Apple and Palantir results	Both report after the cash close, so they drive after-hours futures and the next Asian open rather than today's regular-session levels
Mon 2 Nov, 21:00 GMT	US cash close	Daily candles on the Dow and S&P 500 close here, the reference for the 7,618.79 and 52,055.51 levels
Tue 3 Nov, 01:30 GMT	Hong Kong reopens	The Hang Seng's next cash session, where the 23,708.53 average is the first test after today's tech-led bounce
Tue 3 Nov	US midterm elections	The biggest political event of the week
This week	Bank of England decision	Rates decision this week
Fri 6 Nov	US October jobs report	Forecast at roughly 62,000 jobs with unemployment steady

Analyst View — Rest of Session​

Monday's indices session is a sharp but oil-dependent bounce from last week's AI rout. The Dow and DAX have the firmest structure above their averages, the S&P 500 is only about 12 points above its 7,618.79 slow average, and the real tests land after the bell with Apple and Palantir. CSFX prefers buying dips in the Dow near 52,050 and the DAX near 25,650, where price is above its averages, with a smaller dip-buy in the FTSE 100 near 10,690. The S&P 500 near 7,700 and the Hang Seng near 23,700 are sell-the-bounce ideas at the averages overhead, both at low-to-medium conviction.
Oil and US-Iran headlines are the swing factor for the rest of today, with Treasury yields and the Wall Street tone into the 21:00 GMT close as the confirmation. In a scenario where talks stall and oil rebounds, a reversal in crude on any breakdown in US-Iran diplomacy would push the 10-year yield back toward 4.93% and revive the December hike bets near 70%, the S&P 500 would lose its 7,618.79 slow average first, and the Dow would slip back under its averages: the Dow Jones would fall to 52,055.51 then 51,400, the S&P 500 to 7,618.79 then 7,500, the FTSE 100 to 10,640 then 10,470, the DAX 40 to 25,522.91 then 24,800 and the Hang Seng to 22,950 then 22,750.
A 4-hour close under 51,550 in the Dow or above 7,745 in the S&P 500 would change the picture. Size smaller into oil and US-Iran headlines, Treasury yields after the ISM, the 16:30 GMT European close and Apple and Palantir results after the 21:00 GMT US close. Trade the levels, not the headlines.
Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/daily-forex-report-02-nov-2026-2

 

[CapitalStreet]

Dollar Pinned Near a One-Month Low as Oil's 7% Crash Drags Yields: Euro Stalls at 1.1192, the Franc Firms at 0.8180 and the 15:00 GMT JOLTS Decides What Breaks​

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The Dollar is pinned near a one-month low, and two scheduled shocks, Swiss CPI at 07:30 GMT and US JOLTS at 15:00 GMT, are the first catalysts big enough to break a tape that is coiling. The Dollar Index is trading near 101.6 at 06:00 GMT. Brent crashed more than 7% on Monday after Tehran said its contacts with Washington are continuing, and that pulled the US 10-year yield down to about 4.91%, near a two-month low. The pullback is fragile: the market still prices a roughly 75% chance of a December Fed hike, and a US strike on Iran's Qeshm Island has already steadied oil near $105 Brent. EUR/USD (1.11924, +0.05%) is stalling on its fast average, NZD/USD (0.56266, +0.18%) is bouncing inside a falling channel after the RBA lifted its cash rate to 4.85% in a split 6–3 vote, and USD/JPY (157.86) is holding Monday's range with Japan shut for Culture Day and Finance Minister Katayama's intervention warning still in force. The Franc is the firmest currency on the board: USD/CHF (0.81801, -0.07%) is pressing its channel floor and GBP/CHF (1.09706, -0.06%) has slipped under its own. The desk plan is to sell rallies in all six pairs, and every entry sits above the market, so each idea needs a bounce to trigger.

Market at a Glance​

Feed prices at about 05:55–05:57 GMT on 3 November 2026 (FXCM for USD/JPY, USD/CHF and EUR/USD; OANDA for NZD/USD, GBP/CHF and USD/CAD). Investing.com's USD/JPY, EUR/USD and USD/CAD quotes matched the charts, but a live tick for NZD/USD, USD/CHF and GBP/CHF could not be pulled, so check the live quote before trading. Changes are against the previous close, and the daily candle is still open.

Instrument	Price	Change	Note
USD/JPY	157.859	-0.05%	Prev close 157.932 — at the apex of a symmetrical triangle, level with the 157.897 medium average
NZD/USD	0.56266	+0.18%	Prev close 0.56167 — bounces inside a falling channel, under all three averages
EUR/USD	1.11924	+0.05%	Prev close 1.11863 — sits on the 1.11916 fast average inside a falling channel
GBP/CHF	1.09706	-0.06%	Prev close 1.09774 — slips under the rising channel floor and the 1.09966 medium average
USD/CAD	1.39711	-0.11%	Prev close 1.39860 — squeezes under all three averages, the weakest of the six, RSI 37.21
USD/CHF	0.81801	-0.07%	Prev close 0.81860 — presses the rising channel floor, just above the 0.81546 slow average

What Is Driving the Session​

The Dollar sits near a one-month low as the oil slump drags yields lower​

The Dollar Index is near 101.6 to 101.8 after touching a one-month low on Monday. Brent fell more than 7% as Tehran said contacts with Washington continue, pulling the US 10-year yield to about 4.91%. OCBC still sees the Dollar supported by AI-stock and election risk. Brent is near $105 and WTI near $97 after the Wall Street Journal reported a US strike on Iran's Qeshm Island, which a US official described as self-defence against a missile launch.

US midterm voting runs all day​

A Democratic sweep is priced near 70% to 72%. ING notes that a divided result could mean gridlock and weigh on the Dollar, while the Nasdaq-100's fall of more than 10% from its October record is the biggest threat to long-Dollar positioning. Monday's ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 55.5, with prices paid at 75.2.

The Yen holds near 157.9 on a market holiday​

Japan is shut for Culture Day, so liquidity is thin. Katayama said on Monday that the joint FX statement with the US stands and Japan will act against disorderly weakness, while doubts over the timing of the next BoJ hike limit Yen gains.

The Euro, Sterling and Franc​

Fitch moved France's outlook to negative on Friday, and EUR/USD recovered from a 17-month low near 1.1159 mainly on Dollar weakness, with ECB speakers including Nagel and Kocher scheduled today. The final UK manufacturing PMI showed the strongest output growth in over two years and lifted GBP/USD to about 1.3414, with economists expecting the Bank of England to raise Bank Rate to 4.0% from 3.75%, though GBP/CHF has slipped under its channel floor. Swiss October CPI at 07:30 GMT is expected at 1.3%, up from 1.0%, with the SNB at 0% and markets pricing hikes ahead.

The Kiwi and Loonie​

The RBNZ held at 2.75% by 4–3, and Crédit Agricole's positioning model shows the Kiwi as the G10's biggest short. The RBA hiked 25 bp to 4.85% overnight, and the Aussie fell about 0.3% to 0.6976. USD/CAD holds near 1.397 as the oil slump meets a hawkish Bank of Canada (2.50% since 28 October), with Governor Macklem and Carolyn Rogers testifying at 16:00 GMT.

Trade Setups​

All levels are conditional technical references for educational discussion only and do not constitute personal investment advice. Setups are valid until 21:00 GMT today and are cancelled if unfilled by then, and all times are GMT. Entry is the midpoint of each entry zone, and every entry sits above the current price and needs a bounce to trigger. All six ideas are shorts, so a Dollar-negative surprise would hit USD/JPY and USD/CAD together while a Dollar-positive one would hit EUR/USD and NZD/USD. The "Exit if" lines use each setup's own cancel condition in the source.

USD/JPY — 157.859 (-0.05%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 158.00–158.60 caps (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 158.30
• Stop: 159.00
• Target: 157.40, then 157.00, then 156.30
• Reward:risk: 1.3 / 1.9 / 2.9

Thesis
Price is pressing the falling top line of a symmetrical triangle from the July high near 164.00, with the rising floor near 156.20 from the September low; both lines converge near 158.00, so a break is close. It is level with the 157.897 medium average, above the 157.369 fast average and under the 159.151 slow average. RSI at 51.37 is neutral.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 159.00.
• A firm JOLTS print at 15:00 GMT lifts US yields.

NZD/USD — 0.56266 (+0.18%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 0.5665 caps (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 0.5655
• Stop: 0.5705
• Target: 0.5600, then 0.5550, then 0.5500
• Reward:risk: 1.1 / 2.1 / 3.1

Thesis
Price is inside a falling channel from the August high near 0.6000 and sits under the 0.56406 fast, 0.57151 medium and 0.57596 slow averages. RSI at 42.39 is under its 47.05 average. The Kiwi is the most crowded short in the G10 after the RBNZ hold. NZ Q3 jobs at 21:45 GMT fall after the 21:00 GMT window, so consider trimming before then.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 0.5705.

EUR/USD — 1.11924 (+0.05%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 1.1235 caps (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 1.1225
• Stop: 1.1280
• Target: 1.1150, then 1.1100, then 1.1040
• Reward:risk: 1.4 / 2.3 / 3.4

Thesis
Price is inside a falling channel from the August high near 1.1700 and sits on the 1.1192 fast average after Monday's spike toward 1.1235 faded, far below the 1.13686 medium and 1.14223 slow averages. RSI at 43.01 is weak but recovering. Fitch's France outlook cut keeps the Euro heavy, but a softer Dollar limits losses.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 1.1280.
• A weak JOLTS print drags US yields and the Dollar sharply lower.

GBP/CHF — 1.09706 (-0.06%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 1.0997 caps (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 1.0995
• Stop: 1.1040
• Target: 1.0920, then 1.0885, then 1.0820
• Reward:risk: 1.7 / 2.4 / 3.9

Thesis
Price has dipped under the rising channel floor near 1.0990 that has held since June, and under the 1.10139 fast and 1.09966 medium averages, above the 1.09198 slow average. RSI at 44.11 is weak. The daily candle is still open, so the break counts only on a 22:00 GMT close. UK manufacturing strength and a priced BoE hike support Sterling, but Swiss CPI at 07:30 GMT can lift the Franc further.
Exit if

• A daily close above 1.1040, which puts price back inside the channel above the fast average.

USD/CAD — 1.39711 (-0.11%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 1.4036 caps (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 1.4030
• Stop: 1.4100
• Target: 1.3950, then 1.3900, then 1.3830
• Reward:risk: 1.1 / 1.9 / 2.9

Thesis
Price has fallen from the 1.4300 area and squeezes between a falling top line near 1.3995 and a rising floor near 1.3950, under the 1.40359 slow, 1.40468 medium and 1.41006 fast averages. RSI at 37.21 is weak. The Loonie is exposed to the oil slump, and a break under 1.3943 opens 1.3900.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 1.4100.
• A sharp oil drop keeps unwinding Loonie support.

USD/CHF — 0.81801 (-0.07%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 0.8224 caps (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 0.8225
• Stop: 0.8275
• Target: 0.8155, then 0.8110, then 0.8050
• Reward:risk: 1.4 / 2.3 / 3.5

Thesis
Price is inside a rising channel from the July base after the October peak near 0.8400, testing the floor near 0.8140 beside the 0.8155 slow average, under the 0.82690 fast and 0.82236 medium averages. RSI at 40.11 is weak. A daily close under the 0.8140 channel floor targets 0.8110.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 0.8275.
• A soft Swiss CPI sends the Franc lower.

What to Watch — Today's GMT Clock​

Time	Event	Note
Tue 3 Nov, 07:30 GMT	Swiss CPI (Oct, y/y)	Forecast 1.3% against 1.0%, a hot print supports the Franc, a soft one lets USD/CHF and GBP/CHF bounce toward 0.8224 and 1.0997
Tue 3 Nov, 15:00 GMT	US JOLTS (Sep) and factory orders (Sep)	JOLTS forecast about 7.13M against 7.079M, after Monday's firm ISM
Tue 3 Nov, 16:00 GMT	BoC's Macklem and Rogers testify	A hawkish tone supports the Loonie against the oil slump
Tue 3 Nov, through the day	ECB speakers including Nagel and Kocher	Relevant for EUR/USD
Tue 3 Nov, 21:45 GMT	NZ Q3 jobs	Unemployment forecast 5.5% from 5.6%, employment +0.4% q/q, falls after the setup window
Tue 3 Nov, 22:00 GMT	Daily close	Settles the GBP/CHF channel break, the first US polls close from about 23:00 GMT, AMD and Arista report after the US close

Analyst View — Rest of Session​

The Dollar is heavy but not broken, so CSFX prefers selling bounces into resistance: USD/JPY near 158.30, EUR/USD near 1.1225 at low conviction, USD/CAD near 1.4030 and USD/CHF near 0.8225, plus NZD/USD near 0.5655 and GBP/CHF near 1.0995 at medium conviction, where price already sits under the fast averages.
Swiss CPI comes first at 07:30 GMT. A print at or above 1.3% would back the SNB-hike case and send USD/CHF toward 0.8155 and GBP/CHF toward 1.0920, while a reading near 1.0% would let USD/CHF test 0.8224 and GBP/CHF reclaim 1.0997, the entry area for both shorts. Then JOLTS at 15:00 GMT: job openings above 7.13M and firmer yields would revive Fed-hike bets, lift USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF toward resistance and push EUR/USD, NZD/USD and GBP/CHF toward support: USD/JPY at 158.00 then 158.60, NZD/USD at 0.5600 then 0.5550, EUR/USD at 1.1150 then 1.1100, GBP/CHF at 1.0920 then 1.0885, USD/CAD at 1.4000 then 1.4036 and USD/CHF at 0.8200 then 0.8224.
A 4-hour close over 159.00 in USD/JPY or a daily close over 1.1040 in GBP/CHF would change the picture. Size smaller into Swiss CPI, JOLTS, Macklem at 16:00 GMT and the 22:00 GMT close, and check the live quote before trading.
Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/daily-forex-repot-03-nov-2026

 

[CapitalStreet]

Gold Slips Toward $3,900 and Copper Falls 2.6% as WTI Rebounds to $98: 15:00 GMT JOLTS Is the Next Test​

​

As of 08:40 GMT, risk-off selling is hitting metals while oil is rebounding on Iran headlines, and US JOLTS at 15:00 GMT will be the next scheduled test. Gold is trading at 3,907.91 (−0.98%), copper at 6.44329 (−2.63%) and aluminium at 3,036.6 (−1.42%), pressured by a renewed AI-stock selloff and a weaker yuan. WTI is at 98.20 (+2.03%) after a reported US strike on Qeshm Island added risk premium back, following Monday's 7% slide. Natural gas is at 2.886 (+1.05%), a bounce inside a downtrend, and corn is at 436.85 (−0.12%), near four-month lows. Traders still price about 73% to 77% odds of a December Fed hike, and US midterm voting continues all day. Daily RSI readings of 34.67, 39.99, 43.92, 47.40, 52.07 and 24.43 show that only corn is stretched, so the other five have room to run. The desk plan is to sell rallies in gold, copper, aluminium, natural gas and corn, and to buy WTI on a dip to its triangle floor. Every entry sits away from the market, so each idea needs a bounce or a dip to trigger. JOLTS and factory orders will land at 15:00 GMT, futures will settle between 18:30 and 19:30 GMT, and the daily candles will close at 22:00 GMT, an hour before the first US polls close.

Market at a Glance​

Prices as of about 08:37 to 08:39 GMT on 3 November 2026, read from daily charts: TVC for gold and WTI, Capital.com for copper and aluminium, NYMEX for natural gas and Skilling for corn (US cents per bushel). A live Investing.com tick could not be pulled, so these were cross-checked against Reuters, CNBC and Trading Economics quotes (gold about 3,920 to 3,926, WTI 97 to 98, copper 6.45, aluminium 3,045, gas 2.88). The Skilling corn feed trades about 11 cents under the CBOT December settlement of 448.25, so check your broker quote before trading. Percentage changes are the daily-candle change against the previous close, and the daily candle is still open.

Instrument	Price	Change	Note
Gold (XAUUSD)	3,907.905	−38.525 (−0.98%)	Previous close 3,946.43 — sags inside a falling channel under all three averages, RSI 34.67
Copper (COPPER)	6.44329	−0.17386 (−2.63%)	Previous close 6.61715 — drops through the 6.5534 average on risk-off selling, RSI 39.99
Aluminium (ALIUSD)	3,036.6	−43.7 (−1.42%)	Previous close 3,080.3 — rests on the 3,030.8 fast average inside a falling wedge, RSI 43.92
Natural gas (NG1)	2.886	+0.030 (+1.05%)	Previous close 2.856 — bounces but stays under a cluster of averages at 2.955 to 2.987 after the channel break, RSI 47.40
Crude oil (USOIL, WTI)	98.20	+1.95 (+2.03%)	Previous close 96.25 — bounces off the triangle floor on the Qeshm strike report, RSI 52.07
Corn (CORN)	436.85	−0.52 (−0.12%)	Previous close 437.37 — sinks under all three averages, RSI 24.43 oversold

What Is Driving the Session​

Gold slips toward $3,910 as the US midterm vote begins and December Fed-hike odds stay near 75% (High impact — two-way for gold)​

Spot gold was near $3,926 at 03:53 GMT and the chart feed shows 3,907.91 now. Traders see roughly 73% to 77% odds of a December hike on CME FedWatch, and KCM's Tim Waterer notes gold is being sold to cover losses elsewhere rather than bought as a haven. Source: Reuters via Business Recorder, FXStreet, Trading Economics, 3 November 2026.

Oil rebounds after a reported US strike on Qeshm Island; WTI near $98, Brent near $106 (High impact — two-way for oil)​

CNBC has Brent at $106.60 and WTI at $98.10. The Wall Street Journal reported limited US strikes on Qeshm, while Tehran says contacts with Washington continue after Monday's 7% slide. Source: CNBC, Reuters, WSJ, 3 November 2026.

Copper falls on risk-off selling before the midterms and a weaker yuan (High impact — weighs on copper)​

LME three-month copper was down 1.27% at $14,163.50 at 03:06 GMT. Bloomberg points to a renewed AI-stock selloff in Asia, while a Yangshan premium near $200 signals tight physical supply in China. Source: Reuters via Business Recorder, Bloomberg, 3 November 2026.

Aluminium slips 1.1% on LME as industrial metals fall together (Medium impact — weighs on aluminium)​

LME aluminium lost 1.12% by 03:06 GMT, while SHFE aluminium eased 0.4%. Trading Economics shows the metal near 3,045, down about 1.5%. Source: Reuters via Business Recorder, Trading Economics, 3 November 2026.

US natural gas holds near $2.90 as mild weather and higher output cap the bounce (Medium impact — weighs on gas)​

Forecasts point to warmer-than-normal weather across much of the US in the first half of November. Recovering production and a larger storage addition outweigh stronger LNG exports. Source: Trading Economics, NGI, 2–3 November 2026.

Corn sits near four-month lows on harvest pressure and slow exports (Medium impact — weighs on corn)​

CBOT December corn settled at 448.25 on Monday, and US export commitments are down 34% on the year. Funds have cut a once-record long, which should temper further liquidation. Source: Farm Progress, USDA AMS, CMB News, 2–3 November 2026.

Midterm vote runs all day, and a Democratic sweep is seen as a risk for AI-linked stocks (High impact — two-way for metals)​

Waterer says a sweep would be more problematic for the AI data-centre build-out, and tech pressure could spill into gold and copper. Julius Baer expects deficits to persist whatever the result. Source: Reuters via Business Recorder, Rallies.ai, 3 November 2026.

Trade Setups​

All levels are conditional technical references for educational discussion only and do not constitute personal investment advice. Setups are listed in the order gold, copper, aluminium, natural gas, crude oil and corn and are valid until 21:00 GMT today. A 4-hour close beyond the stop cancels the idea, and each is cancelled if unfilled by 21:00 GMT. Entry is the midpoint of each entry zone, and reward:risk is the distance from entry to each target divided by the distance from entry to the stop; three targets are shown for each instrument. Five ideas are shorts and the WTI idea is a long, so a USD-positive JOLTS surprise would help the shorts and hurt the oil long. The 15:00 GMT release can gap prices through the entries. The "Exit if" lines are the source's own cancel conditions. All times are GMT.

Gold (XAUUSD) — 3,907.905 (−0.98%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 3,965 to 3,975 caps (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 3,955
• Stop: 4,000
• Target: 3,870, then 3,830, then 3,760
• Reward:risk: 1.9 / 2.8 / 4.3

Thesis
Price is inside a falling channel from the late-August high near 4,700, with the channel top near 3,975 and the floor near 3,745. It is far under the 4,076.71, 4,206.95 and 4,230.73 averages. RSI at 34.67 is under its 38.79 average: weak, but not yet oversold. A 4-hour close above 4,000 cancels the short; a break under 3,870 targets 3,830, then the 3,745 channel floor. Gold is trading near 3,908 after being rejected at 3,964 earlier today, with a December Fed hike still priced at about 73% to 77% and US midterm voting under way. JOLTS at 15:00 GMT and the Fed-hike odds that follow it are the main catalyst. Support sits at 3,870 and 3,830, resistance at 3,965 and 4,076.71.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 4,000, or a soft JOLTS print at 15:00 GMT that pulls yields lower.
• The trade is unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.

Copper (COPPER) — 6.44329 (−2.63%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 6.55 to 6.65 caps (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 6.52
• Stop: 6.62
• Target: 6.40, then 6.32, then 6.20
• Reward:risk: 1.2 / 2.0 / 3.2

Thesis
Price is inside a falling channel from the mid-September high near 6.95, with the top near 6.77 and the floor near 6.34, and today's drop has taken price under the 6.5534 average. It is under the 6.6636, 6.6472 and 6.5534 averages. RSI at 39.99 is under its 47.33 average: weak. A 4-hour close above 6.62 cancels the short; a break under 6.40 targets 6.32, near the channel floor. Copper is near 6.443 as the AI-stock selloff and a weaker yuan hit demand hopes, while tight physical supply in China limits how far LME prices can fall. The US stock open at 14:30 GMT is the main catalyst, since a further tech selloff would hit data-centre metal demand. Support sits at 6.40 and 6.30, resistance at 6.5534 and 6.6472.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 6.62, or a risk-on rebound in US tech at the 14:30 GMT open.
• The trade is unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.

Aluminium (ALIUSD) — 3,036.6 (−1.42%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 3,085 to 3,153 caps (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 3,085
• Stop: 3,130
• Target: 3,030, then 2,985, then 2,935
• Reward:risk: 1.2 / 2.2 / 3.3

Thesis
Price is inside two converging falling lines from the June high near 3,800 and the July low near 3,030, with the upper line near 3,130 and the floor near 2,925, and it sits on the 3,030.8 fast average. It is level with the 3,030.8 fast average and under the 3,152.7 and 3,175.7 averages. RSI at 43.92 is above its 39.44 average: a mild improvement. A 4-hour close above 3,130 cancels the short; a break under 3,030 targets 2,985, then the 2,935 recent low. Aluminium is near 3,037, down 1.4% in line with the 1.1% loss in LME aluminium, but the wedge floor near 2,925 is close, so rallies are better sold than breaks chased. JOLTS at 15:00 GMT and the demand tone at the US open are the main catalysts. Support sits at 3,030.8 and 2,935, resistance at 3,085 and 3,152.7.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 3,130, because a falling wedge can resolve upward.
• The trade is unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.

Natural Gas (NG1) — 2.886 (+1.05%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 2.955 to 2.987 caps (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 2.96
• Stop: 3.05
• Target: 2.80, then 2.65, then 2.50
• Reward:risk: 1.8 / 3.4 / 5.1

Thesis
Price fell out of a rising channel in late October, rebounded from the 2.50 low and is now under the 2.955, 2.968 and 2.987 averages, which are bunched between 2.955 and 2.987 and act as resistance. RSI at 47.40 is above its 44.49 average: neutral. A 4-hour close above 3.05 cancels the short; a break under 2.80 targets 2.65, then the 2.50 low. Gas is near 2.89 with mild weather forecast for much of the US in the first half of November, recovering production and a larger-than-expected storage addition outweighing rising LNG exports. Weather-model updates and the 19:30 GMT NYMEX settlement are the main catalysts. Support sits at 2.80 and 2.65, resistance at 2.955 and 2.987.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 3.05, or colder forecast revisions.
• The trade is unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.

Crude Oil (USOIL, WTI) — 98.20 (+2.03%)​

Stance: Buy dips — two-way inside a triangle, with a lean higher while 97.59 holds (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 97.60
• Stop: 95.80
• Target: 100.00, then 102.50, then 104.50
• Reward:risk: 1.3 / 2.7 / 3.8

Thesis
Price is coiling between a rising floor from the July low, now near 97, and a falling top line from the March high, now near 104.5, and it is back above the 97.59 fast average. It is above the 97.59 fast, 94.61 medium and 86.79 slow averages. RSI at 52.07 is under its 60.29 average: neutral. A 4-hour close under 95.80 cancels the long; a break above 102.50 opens the 104.50 triangle top. WTI is near 98.20 after Monday's 7% slide, with Brent near 105 to 106.6, as a reported US strike on Qeshm Island put risk premium back while Tehran says contacts with Washington continue. Iran headlines, the 19:30 GMT settlement and API stocks at 21:30 GMT are the main catalysts. Support sits at 97.59 and 94.61, resistance at 100.00 and 102.50.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close under 95.80, or a credible US-Iran deal headline that sends Brent lower.
• The trade is unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.

Corn (CORN) — 436.85 (−0.12%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 448 to 453.51 caps, though the oversold RSI means bounces can be sharp (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 448.00
• Stop: 456.00
• Target: 439.00, then 430.00, then 424.00
• Reward:risk: 1.1 / 2.3 / 3.0

Thesis
Price broke below a rising channel in early October and has fallen under the 453.51, 468.29 and 483.57 averages, close to the June low near 424. RSI at 24.43 is under its 26.60 average: deeply oversold. A 4-hour close above 456 cancels the short; a break under 430 targets 424, then 415. Corn is near 436.85 as harvest pressure, export commitments down 34% on the year and fund selling outweigh recent export sales. The 19:20 GMT CBOT close and the dollar tone after JOLTS are the main catalysts. Support sits at 430 and 424, resistance at 448 and 453.51.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 456, or a short-covering spike on a firm flash export sale.
• The trade is unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.

What to Watch — Rest of Today​

All times are GMT. US daylight saving time ended on 1 November, so 10:00 ET equals 15:00 GMT.

Time	Event	Note
All day	US midterm elections	Voting runs all day; a Democratic sweep is seen as a risk for AI-linked stocks, with spillover into gold and copper
Tue 3 Nov, 14:30 GMT	US stock open	The tech selloff is the main channel into copper and gold, so a weak open adds pressure to both
Tue 3 Nov, 15:00 GMT	US JOLTS job openings (September)	Consensus about 7.13M against 7.079M. A strong print lifts hike bets and hits gold; a weak one helps metals
Tue 3 Nov, 15:00 GMT	US factory orders (September)	Released with JOLTS, after Monday's firm ISM manufacturing PMI of 55.5
Tue 3 Nov, 18:30 GMT	Futures settlements	COMEX gold settles at 18:30 GMT, CBOT corn closes at 19:20 GMT, and NYMEX crude and gas settle at 19:30 GMT
Tue 3 Nov, 21:30 GMT	API weekly crude inventories	A draw would support the WTI long; a build would pressure it into the 22:00 GMT close
Tue 3 Nov, 22:00 GMT	Daily close; first US polls close	Daily candles close at 22:00 GMT. The first US polls close from about 23:00 GMT, so expect position-trimming into the close

Analyst View — Rest of Session​

Tuesday's commodities session is risk-off for metals while oil rebounds on Iran headlines. Risk-off flows and Fed-hike pricing favour selling bounces in metals and grains: gold near 3,955, copper near 6.52, natural gas near 2.96, plus aluminium near 3,085 and corn near 448 at low conviction, where the oversold or wedge readings argue for patience. WTI is the exception, with a dip-buy near 97.60 at the triangle floor, at low conviction because Iran headlines cut both ways.
JOLTS at 15:00 GMT, Iran headlines and the midterm vote are the swing factors for the rest of today. If job openings come in above 7.13M and yields firm, the dollar rises and commodities fall, as a strong print would revive Fed-hike bets and add to risk-off selling: gold at 3,870 then 3,830, copper at 6.40 then 6.30, aluminium at 3,030 then 2,985, natural gas at 2.80 then 2.65 (weather-driven, so its move is smaller), crude oil at 97.59 then 94.61 and corn at 430 then 424. Iran headlines can arrive at any minute: a confirmed escalation after Qeshm would push WTI toward 102.50 and 104.50 and revive the inflation and rate-hike case that weighs on gold, while a US-Iran deal headline would send WTI back to 94.61, which cancels the long, and would likely lift gold toward 3,965.
A 4-hour close over 4,000 in gold or under 95.80 in WTI would change the picture. Size smaller into JOLTS at 15:00 GMT, the 18:30 to 19:30 GMT settlements, API stocks at 21:30 GMT and the 22:00 GMT close. Trade the levels, not the headlines.
Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/daily-commodity-report-03-nov-2026

 

[CapitalStreet]

Bitcoin Fights for the $76,650 Floor and Solana Hangs On at $92: 15:00 GMT JOLTS Could Break the Standoff​

​

Crypto is at a decision point at 12:02 GMT: Bitcoin is sitting on its channel floor, Solana is clinging to a rising trendline at 92, and US JOLTS at 15:00 GMT is the first hard test of the day. Bitcoin is at 76,892 (about -1.8% over 24 hours), Ether at 2,260.9, XRP at 1.25585, Solana at 92.25 and Tether at 0.99837. All five are slightly green since the 00:00 GMT open, but the pressure behind them has not eased: spot Bitcoin ETFs bled $398.6M on Monday after $643.3M on Friday, the Binance hack still hangs over sentiment, the Nasdaq 100 has fallen into correction, and traders price about a 74% chance of a December Fed hike. Daily RSI readings leave Solana as the only oversold name, so Bitcoin and Ether still have room to fall. The desk plan is to sell rallies in Bitcoin, Ether and Solana, buy XRP at its triangle floor and buy Tether back toward its peg. Every entry sits away from the market, so each idea needs a bounce or a dip to trigger, and a daily close under 76,400 in Bitcoin at 00:00 GMT would turn the floor into a breakdown.

Market at a Glance​

Chart-feed prices at about 12:01–12:02 GMT on 3 November 2026 (Bitstamp for Bitcoin, Ether and XRP; Coinbase for Solana; the TradingView CRYPTO feed for Tether). A live Investing.com tick could not be pulled, so check your broker quote before trading. Changes are the daily-candle change against the previous close, and the daily candle is still open. Levels are in US dollars.

Instrument	Price	Change	Note
Bitcoin	$76,892	+0.28%	Prev close 76,674 — on the 76,650 slow average at the floor of a falling channel, RSI 36.09
Ether	$2,260.9	+0.53%	Prev close 2,249.0 — holds a 2,200–2,300 range under all three averages, RSI 35.01
XRP	$1.25585	+0.62%	Prev close 1.24808 — defends 1.25 just above a rising triangle floor near 1.21, RSI 38.66
Solana	$92.25	+0.46%	Prev close 91.83 — tests a rising line near 93, RSI 27.40, the only oversold name
Tether	$0.99837	-0.01%	Prev close 0.99844 — about 0.16% under its peg inside a falling channel

What Is Driving the Session​

ETF outflows, liquidations and a chip rout weigh on Bitcoin​

US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $398.6M on Monday after $643.3M on Friday, their biggest outflow since June. Liquidations near $90M to $100M and a Nasdaq 100 in correction added to the pressure. AI jitters hit global stocks while US midterm voting starts, with Reuters having MSCI World down 0.26%, the Dollar Index near 101.7 and the 10-year yield at 4.91%, and Polymarket giving about 77% odds of a Democratic sweep, a risk for AI-linked stocks.

Binance says it has replaced about 95% of the $6.3B stolen​

About $3B is frozen and Binance reopened withdrawals on 1 November. Customers pulled roughly $4.65B in the reopening against about $1.01B of deposits. The FBI blames North Korea's TraderTraitor, and North Korea denies a role.

Fed hike odds near 74% cap rallies​

Traders still price about a 74% chance of another Fed hike in December after the September rise. A strong JOLTS print (about 7.13M expected against 7.079M) would firm those odds and add to pressure on crypto.

Ether, XRP and Solana test their floors​

Ether holds 2,200 to 2,300 after $140M of ETF outflows on Monday, with cumulative US spot ETH ETF inflows down to $12.1B, and the Binance theft included 167,464 ETH in one transaction. XRP is pinned near $1.25 after a double-digit October drop, with analysts treating 1.25 as the key floor and a long-liquidation cluster near 1.23. Solana trades near $92 after sliding from about $126 in October, with a Solflare staking incident (a validator operator lost keys and rewards were paused) adding to the pressure; the wallet says user funds are safe and will compensate missed rewards.

Tether has frozen over $1.5B tied to the hack​

Circle froze more than $800M of USDC and Ripple also froze hack-linked funds. USDT trades about 0.16% under its peg, and the coverage found centres on the freezes, not on any redemption problem.

Trade Setups​

All levels are conditional technical references for educational discussion only and do not constitute personal investment advice. Setups are valid until 22:00 GMT today and are cancelled if unfilled by then, and all times are GMT. Entry is the midpoint of each entry zone, and every entry sits away from the current price and needs a bounce or a dip to trigger. Three ideas are shorts, so a strong JOLTS print would help them and hurt the XRP long, and the Tether long is a peg-reversion trade, not a bet on crypto direction. The "Exit if" lines use each setup's own cancel condition in the source.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) — $76,892 (+0.28%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 78,000–79,500 caps (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 78,300
• Stop: 79,700
• Target: 76,400, then 75,000, then 73,700
• Reward:risk: 1.4 / 2.4 / 3.3

Thesis
Price is inside a falling channel from the late-September high near 87,500, with the top near 82,000 and the floor near 76,000, sitting on the 76,650 slow average and under the 80,266 and 81,886 averages. RSI at 36.09 is under its 41.76 average, weak but not yet oversold. ETF outflows, liquidations and the chip selloff outweigh Binance's pledge to cover the hack.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 79,700.
• A credible Binance recovery headline.

Ether (ETH/USD) — $2,260.9 (+0.53%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 2,330–2,350 caps (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 2,330
• Stop: 2,395
• Target: 2,235, then 2,200, then 2,100
• Reward:risk: 1.5 / 2.0 / 3.5

Thesis
Price is inside a triangle between a rising floor from the late-June low near 1,520 (now near 2,200) and a falling top from the mid-September high near 2,830 (now near 2,570), under the 2,349.5, 2,351.4 and 2,505.7 averages. RSI at 35.01 is weak. After Monday's $140M ETH ETF outflow, the rising floor near 2,200 is the line to watch, and a break under it targets 2,100.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 2,395.
• A risk-on rebound in tech at the open.

XRP (XRP/USD) — $1.25585 (+0.62%)​

Stance: Buy dips — two-way, leaning lower below 1.2945 (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 1.2350
• Stop: 1.1900
• Target: 1.2900, then 1.3100, then 1.3850
• Reward:risk: 1.2 / 1.7 / 3.3

Thesis
Price is in a triangle between a rising floor from the August low near 0.98 (now near 1.21) and a falling top from the August high near 1.70 (now near 1.43), under the 1.29446, 1.30641 and 1.38480 averages. RSI at 38.66 is weak. Buyers are defending the 1.25 zone and ETF flows are only mildly negative, and a break above 1.2945 targets 1.31.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close under 1.19.
• A hawkish JOLTS surprise sends Bitcoin under 76,400.

Solana (SOL/USD) — $92.25 (+0.46%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 96–98.52 caps, oversold bounces can be sharp (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 96.00
• Stop: 99.00
• Target: 90.00, then 86.00, then 80.00
• Reward:risk: 2.0 / 3.3 / 5.3

Thesis
Price sits on a rising line from the June low near 60 (now near 93) after a falling top from the late-September high near 124 (now near 108), under the 98.52, 100.72 and 108.59 averages. RSI at 27.40 is oversold, so patience matters. A daily close under the rising line at 00:00 GMT would confirm the triangle break, and a break under 90 targets 86.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 99.
• An oversold squeeze through 98.52.

Tether (USDT/USD) — $0.99837 (-0.01%)​

Stance: Buy dips — a bounce toward 0.9987 while 0.9979 holds, a peg trade with event risk (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 0.99790
• Stop: 0.99735
• Target: 0.99869, then 0.99918, then 0.99990
• Reward:risk: 1.4 / 2.3 / 3.6

Thesis
USDT is in a falling channel from the early-October top near 1.0000, with the top near 0.9987 and the floor near 0.9975, under the 0.99869, 0.99918 and 0.99932 averages, which sit 0.03% to 0.1% above. RSI is a weak guide for a stablecoin (42.99, neutral). The trade is peg reversion after Tether froze over $1.5B tied to the Binance hack.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close under 0.99735.
• Any issuer-side redemption headline.

What to Watch — Rest of Today​

Time	Event	Note
Tue 3 Nov, 14:30 GMT	US stock open	Crypto is tracking tech, a weak open adds pressure to Bitcoin and Solana
Tue 3 Nov, 15:00 GMT	US JOLTS job openings (Sep)	Consensus about 7.13M against 7.079M, a strong print lifts hike bets and hits crypto
Tue 3 Nov, from 21:00 GMT	US close and AMD results	AMD reports after the bell, the next test for the chip selloff
Tue 3 Nov, after 21:00 GMT	Spot ETF flow data	Another large BTC or ETH outflow would confirm the institutional exit
Tue 3 Nov, 23:00 GMT	First US polls close	Expect position-trimming into the close
Wed 4 Nov, 00:00 GMT	Daily candle close	A close under 76,400 in Bitcoin or under the Solana line near 93 would confirm breakdowns

Analyst View — Rest of Session​

ETF outflows, Fed-hike pricing and the chip selloff favour selling bounces: Bitcoin near 78,300, Ether near 2,330 and Solana near 96, with Solana's oversold RSI arguing for patience. XRP is a low-conviction dip-buy near 1.235 at the triangle floor, and Tether is a low-conviction peg trade near 0.9979.
Job openings above 7.13M, firmer yields and weaker tech would revive Fed-hike bets, deepen the chip selloff and add to ETF outflows, breaking the floors: Bitcoin at 76,400 then 75,000, Ether at 2,200 then 2,100, XRP at 1.23 then 1.1975, Solana at 90.00 then 86.00 and Tether at 0.99790 then 0.99750. Binance and election headlines can arrive at any minute: new movement of stolen funds or another outflow spike would push Bitcoin under 76,400, while a clean reserves update or large recoveries would lift it toward 78,000. The first polls close at 23:00 GMT, an hour before the daily candles close.
A 4-hour close over 79,700 in Bitcoin or under 1.19 in XRP would change the picture. Size smaller into JOLTS at 15:00 GMT, AMD results, ETF flows and the 00:00 GMT candle close, and check your broker quote before trading.
Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/daily-crypto-report-03-nov-2026

 

[CapitalStreet]

Blue Sweep Hammers the Dollar to a One-Month Low: Franc and Yen Surge, Sterling Breaks Through 1.3450 and 15:00 GMT ISM Decides if the Selloff Holds​

​

Democrats have taken Congress and the Dollar is paying for it: the index hit 101.27, a one-month low, in its worst session in a month, and the 13:15 GMT ADP and 15:00 GMT ISM prints decide whether this is a flush or the start of a trend. AP has called the Senate for the Democrats and Reuters reports they have captured the House too, stoking fears of tougher AI regulation, legislative gridlock and a smaller US growth premium. The Dollar Index is near 101.4 to 101.5 at 07:05 GMT, the 10-year yield has dropped about 5 basis points to roughly 4.91%, Nasdaq futures are sliding and Tokyo's stock index fell 2.85%. Money has run into the safe havens: the Franc jumped almost 1% and the Yen about 0.7% in Asia. Sterling is the day's standout, with GBP/USD (1.34582, +0.33%) printing 1.34788, its highest since 16 September, ahead of a Bank of England hike to 4.00% due tomorrow at 12:00 GMT. The bulls should not get carried away: ING argues the Dollar still trades on the Fed, with a December hike priced near 73%, so a strong ADP or ISM could snap the move back fast.

Market at a Glance​

Feed prices at about 07:04–07:06 GMT on 4 November 2026 (FXCM for USD/JPY, GBP/USD and USD/CHF; OANDA for AUD/USD, EUR/CHF and USD/CAD). A live Investing.com tick could not be pulled for each pair, so quotes can differ by a few pips across feeds; check the live quote before trading. Changes are against the previous close, and the daily candle is still open.

Instrument	Price	Change	Note
USD/JPY	158.177	-0.31%	Prev close 158.672 — bounces off the 157.363 fast average, above the triangle top line, RSI 53.42
AUD/USD	0.69831	+0.24%	Prev close 0.69661 — bounces from a two-week low inside a falling channel, under the 0.69949 fast average
EUR/CHF	0.91775	-0.10%	Prev close 0.91870 — presses the top of a falling channel, RSI 33.80, the weakest of the six
GBP/USD	1.34582	+0.33%	Prev close 1.34137 — breaks above the triangle top line and all three averages, RSI 63.12
USD/CAD	1.39713	-0.28%	Prev close 1.40102 — back under the broken top line, tests the rising floor near 1.3945
USD/CHF	0.81750	-0.39%	Prev close 0.82067 — dipped under the channel floor to 0.81273 before buyers stepped in

What Is Driving the Session​

The Dollar slides to a one-month low as Democrats capture Congress​

The Dollar Index fell as much as 0.6% to 101.27 as the Democrats won the Senate and, per Reuters, the House. Analysts link the move to fears of tighter AI regulation that could slow US growth, and to a smaller chance of further tax cuts, and CBA's Carol Kong said a sweep could push the Dollar lower still. ING says the Greenback continues to respond mainly to the Fed, which faces no immediate effect from the midterm result, so ADP (13:15 GMT) and ISM services (15:00 GMT) are the first data checks.

The Franc and Yen lead the majors​

Bloomberg reports the Franc rose almost 1% and the Yen about 0.7% in Asian trading as investors reached for haven-like assets. Swiss CPI rose to 1.5% y/y in October, its hottest in more than two years, which fuelled talk that the SNB, at 0%, may consider hikes sooner. USD/JPY fell to 157.395 and recovered to about 158.18, with Finance Minister Katayama having reminded markets that the joint FX statement with the US stands.

Sterling hits its highest since 16 September​

GBP/USD rallied past 1.3450 as the Dollar weakened and fiscal worries eased after the UK budget. Economists polled by Reuters expect the BoE to raise Bank Rate to 4.00% from 3.75% at 12:00 GMT tomorrow, with money markets pricing three more hikes after that. UK final services PMI at 09:30 GMT is forecast at 53.1.

The Aussie lags, EUR/CHF waits for eurozone CPI​

The RBA lifted its cash rate by 25 bp to 4.85% in a 6–3 vote and dropped its reference to further hikes (per ING), and AUD/USD touched a two-week low near 0.6954. The ECB's deposit rate is 2.50%, Lagarde has called a December hike likely and Germany's Nagel said one will probably be needed, so a hot eurozone flash CPI at 10:00 GMT (4.0% expected against 3.8%) would support EUR/CHF in the short run, with France's negative Fitch outlook the counterweight.

The Loonie holds as oil drifts lower​

Brent is near $103 to $104 and WTI near $96 after Iran's Foreign Ministry said it is far from a deal with the US, while Qatar steps up mediation. The API reported a 5.3 million barrel draw, and the official EIA figure follows at 15:30 GMT. The BoC's hawkish tone, after its 2.50% hike, offsets weaker crude.

Trade Setups​

All levels are conditional technical references for educational discussion only and do not constitute personal investment advice. Setups are valid until 21:00 GMT today and are cancelled if unfilled by then, and all times are GMT. Entry is the midpoint of each entry zone. Every short entry sits above the current price and needs a bounce to trigger, and the GBP/USD long sits below the market and needs a pullback to the broken line near 1.3415. Four of the six ideas (short USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF, and long GBP/USD) are Dollar-negative, so a lasting Dollar rebound would hit them together, while the AUD/USD short is the lone Dollar-positive idea. The "Exit if" lines use each setup's own cancel condition in the source.

USD/JPY — 158.177 (-0.31%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 158.74–159.14 caps (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 158.650
• Stop: 159.200
• Target: 157.950, then 157.400, then 156.400
• Reward:risk: 1.3 / 2.3 / 4.1

Thesis
Price is just above the falling top line of a symmetrical triangle from the July high near 164.00, with the rising floor near 156.40 from the September low, above the 157.944 medium and 157.363 fast averages and under the 159.135 slow average. RSI at 53.42 is neutral. Intervention warnings from Japan still hang over any push toward 159.00, and a break under 157.363 targets 156.40.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 159.20.
• Strong ADP and ISM readings lift US yields.

AUD/USD — 0.69831 (+0.24%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 0.7010 caps (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 0.7010
• Stop: 0.7060
• Target: 0.6955, then 0.6900, then 0.6845
• Reward:risk: 1.1 / 2.2 / 3.3

Thesis
Price is inside a falling channel from the early-September high near 0.7240, with the channel top near 0.7055 and the floor near 0.6805, under the 0.69949 fast, 0.70312 slow and 0.70556 medium averages. RSI at 45.04 is soft. The RBA's split hike dropped its reference to more tightening, and the risk-sensitive Aussie is lagging the Franc and Yen.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 0.7060.
• A weak ADP and ISM print keeps the Dollar sliding.

EUR/CHF — 0.91775 (-0.10%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 0.9200–0.9250 caps, but near oversold (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 0.9210
• Stop: 0.9255
• Target: 0.9150, then 0.9100, then 0.9040
• Reward:risk: 1.3 / 2.4 / 3.8

Thesis
Price is inside a falling channel from the 30 September high near 0.9485 and presses the channel top near 0.9170 after rebounding from today's low of 0.91482, far under the 0.92505 fast, 0.93176 slow and 0.93465 medium averages. RSI at 33.80 is near oversold, so a bounce is possible first. A close above 0.9255 cancels the short, and a break under 0.9148 targets 0.9100.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 0.9255.
• A hot eurozone CPI lifts ECB-hike bets further.

GBP/USD — 1.34582 (+0.33%)​

Stance: Buy dips — higher while 1.3415 holds on dips (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 1.3415
• Stop: 1.3365
• Target: 1.3478, then 1.3530, then 1.3565
• Reward:risk: 1.3 / 2.3 / 3.0

Thesis
Price has pushed through the falling line from the August high near 1.3675 (now near 1.3415) and sits above the rising floor from the October low near 1.3140, above the 1.33868 medium, 1.33664 slow and 1.33279 fast averages. RSI at 63.12 is firm but not stretched. A priced BoE hike and the Dollar after the US midterms support it, and a break above 1.3479 opens 1.3500.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close below 1.3365.
• Strong ADP and ISM readings push the Dollar sharply higher.

USD/CAD — 1.39713 (-0.28%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 1.4039 caps, but the Loonie is held back by cheaper oil (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 1.4025
• Stop: 1.4085
• Target: 1.3950, then 1.3880, then 1.3800
• Reward:risk: 1.3 / 2.4 / 3.8

Thesis
Price poked above the falling line from the October high near 1.4300 and dropped back under it, now just above the rising line from the September low near 1.3945, under the 1.40386 slow, 1.40459 medium and 1.40882 fast averages. RSI at 38.40 is weak. A break under 1.3945 targets 1.3870, with Canada's trade balance at 13:30 GMT and the EIA report at 15:30 GMT the catalysts.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 1.4085.
• A sharp oil drop keeps eroding Loonie support.

USD/CHF — 0.81750 (-0.39%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 0.8227 caps (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 0.8225
• Stop: 0.8275
• Target: 0.8150, then 0.8110, then 0.8050
• Reward:risk: 1.5 / 2.3 / 3.5

Thesis
Price is inside a rising channel from the late-July base and tests the floor near 0.8135 beside the 0.81566 slow average, under the 0.82626 fast and 0.82266 medium averages. Today's wick under the floor was bought back, so the daily close at 22:00 GMT matters. RSI at 40.37 is weak, and Swiss inflation at a two-year high supports the Franc.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 0.8275.
• A strong ISM print sends the Dollar broadly higher.

What to Watch — Today's GMT Clock​

Time	Event	Note
Wed 4 Nov, 09:30 GMT	UK final services PMI (Oct)	Forecast 53.1, a firm print adds to the BoE-hike case
Wed 4 Nov, 10:00 GMT	Eurozone flash CPI (Oct, y/y)	Forecast 4.0% against 3.8% prior, core 2.5%
Wed 4 Nov, 13:15 GMT	US ADP employment (Oct)	Forecast about 67K to 69K against 90K prior
Wed 4 Nov, 13:30 GMT	Canada trade balance	Relevant for USD/CAD
Wed 4 Nov, 15:00 GMT	US ISM services PMI (Oct)	Forecast 54.8 against 54.9, prices paid watched near 75
Wed 4 Nov, 15:30 GMT	EIA crude inventories	Follows an API draw of 5.3 million barrels, with Brent near $103 to $104
Wed 4 Nov, 22:00 GMT	Daily close	Settles the USD/CHF channel-floor test and the GBP/USD triangle break
Thu 5 Nov, 12:00 GMT	Bank of England decision	Hike to 4.00% expected, three more hikes priced after that

Analyst View — Rest of Session​

The Dollar is heavy after the Democratic sweep but not broken, so CSFX prefers selling bounces into resistance in USD/JPY near 158.65, USD/CHF near 0.8225 and AUD/USD near 0.7010 at medium conviction, and EUR/CHF near 0.9210 and USD/CAD near 1.4025 at low conviction. The exception is GBP/USD, where price has broken higher and a dip toward 1.3415 is a buying area at medium conviction.
Eurozone CPI comes first at 10:00 GMT: a print at or above 4.0% would back the ECB-hike case and lift EUR/CHF toward 0.9200–0.9210, the entry area for the short, while a reading near or below 3.8% would let EUR/CHF retest 0.9148 and then 0.9100 as the Franc stays bid. Then ADP and ISM: readings above forecast with firmer yields would revive Fed-hike bets, lift USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF toward resistance and push AUD/USD, GBP/USD and EUR/CHF toward support: USD/JPY at 158.74 then 159.14, AUD/USD at 0.6955 then 0.6900, EUR/CHF at 0.9148 then 0.9100, GBP/USD at 1.3415 then 1.3387, USD/CAD at 1.4000 then 1.4039 and USD/CHF at 0.8200 then 0.8227.
A 4-hour close over 159.20 in USD/JPY or under 1.3365 in GBP/USD would change the picture. Size smaller into the UK PMI at 09:30 GMT, eurozone CPI at 10:00 GMT, ADP at 13:15 GMT, ISM services at 15:00 GMT and EIA stocks at 15:30 GMT, and check the live quote before trading.
Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/daily-forex-report-04-11-2026

 

[CapitalStreet]

Gold Rips $100 Off a One-Year Low Back Above $4,000 as the Blue Sweep Crushes the Dollar: Silver Surges 4%, WTI Defends $94.90 and 15:00 GMT ISM Decides If It Lasts​

​

Gold has ripped more than $100 off a one-year low and is back above $4,000 at 4,036.03 (+2.71%), silver has surged 4.29% to 51.92 after breaking under $50 for the first time in a year, and the trigger is a Democratic sweep of Congress that has driven the dollar index to a one-month low near 101.4. Treasury yields have slid toward 4.9%, cutting the cost of holding non-yielding bullion, and Reuters reports analysts also see demand for protection against a more unpredictable White House. Gold hit a low of 3,919.93 today before the squeeze, and the next real test is the 4,073.89 fast average. The rest of the board is far less certain. WTI (96.58, −0.18%) is defending 94.90, the rising floor of a triangle that has held since July, with Brent at about $103.60 after its lowest close since 7 October. Hopes for a US-Iran deal are pulling crude down, an API draw of 5.27 million barrels is propping it up, and one analyst quoted by Reuters notes Trump has flagged a restart of Iran bombing after the election. Aluminium (3,063.3, +1.19%) has reclaimed its fast average, natural gas (2.902, +0.24%) is pinned under a wall of averages at 2.95 to 2.97, and wheat (613.3, +0.43%) sits at RSI 27.57, the most oversold on the board, after a 13% monthly slide. The rally has one big weakness: markets still price roughly a 73% chance of a December Fed hike, per ING, so the dollar is weak on politics, not on policy. Data decides which one wins. Eurozone flash CPI is at 10:00 GMT, US ADP at 13:15, ISM services at 15:00 and EIA crude stocks at 15:30, before the daily candles close at 22:00. Daily RSI readings of 45.69, 37.48, 48.53, 48.13, 49.04 and 27.57 leave room for gold, silver, aluminium and WTI to extend if the dollar stays offered. The desk plan: buy pullbacks in gold near 4,000, aluminium near 3,030 and WTI near 95.20, buy silver and oversold wheat at low conviction, and sell natural gas rallies into 2.955. Every entry sits away from the current price, so patience is part of the trade.

Market at a Glance​

Prices as of about 08:50 GMT on 4 November 2026, read from daily charts: TVC for gold, silver and WTI, Capital.com for aluminium, NYMEX for natural gas and FOREX.com for the wheat CFD (US cents per bushel). A live Investing.com tick could not be pulled at the time of writing, so quotes were cross-checked against levels reported by Reuters, Investing.com, Bloomberg, FXStreet and other public reports (for example spot gold near 4,039 and silver near 51.87 in the early London session) and can differ by a small margin across feeds; check the live quote before trading. The wheat CFD quotes a deferred contract, so it sits above the CBOT December settlement of 599.75. Percentage changes are the daily-candle change against the previous close, and the daily candle is still open.

Instrument	Price	Change	Note
Gold (XAU/USD)	4,036.03	+106.64 (+2.71%)	Previous close 3,929.39 — rebounds from the channel floor and presses the top line above $4,000, under the 4,073.89 fast average, RSI 45.69
Silver (XAG/USD)	51.92	+2.1366 (+4.29%)	Previous close 49.78 — jumps off the channel floor but stays well under the averages, RSI 37.48
Aluminium (ALIUSD)	3,063.3	+36.0 (+1.19%)	Previous close 3,027.3 — reclaims the fast average inside a falling wedge, RSI 48.53
Natural gas (NG)	2.902	+0.007 (+0.24%)	Previous close 2.895 — retests the broken channel and a cluster of averages near 2.95 to 2.97, RSI 48.13
Crude oil (WTI)	96.58	−0.17 (−0.18%)	Previous close 96.75 — tests the rising floor of a triangle as Iran talks pull against a large inventory draw, RSI 49.04
Wheat (WHEAT)	613.3	+2.6 (+0.43%)	Previous close 610.7 — hugs the floor of a falling channel, RSI 27.57 the most oversold of the six

What Is Driving the Session​

Gold jumps above $4,000 as the dollar sinks on a Democratic sweep (High impact — supports gold and silver)​

Reuters reported spot gold up 2.4% at $4,021.68 by 07:18 GMT, with the dollar at a one-month low after Democrats won both chambers. Capital.com's Kyle Rodda said investors see gridlock slowing US spending, and Pepperstone's Chris Weston cited demand for protection against a more confrontational administration. Spot silver rose about 4.2% to roughly $51.85. Source: Reuters, Investing.com, 4 November 2026.

The dollar index slides to 101.4 and yields fall, but the Fed story is unchanged (High impact — two-way USD)​

The dollar index is near 101.42, down about 0.3%, with the 10-year yield near 4.9%. ING argues the greenback still trades mainly on the Fed, with a December hike priced near 73%, so ADP at 13:15 GMT and ISM services at 15:00 GMT can reverse the move quickly. Source: ING via FXStreet, Reuters, 4 November 2026.

WTI holds near $96 as US-Iran talks pull against a surprise inventory draw (High impact — two-way crude)​

Brent settled at $103.60 yesterday, its lowest close since 7 October, and WTI is near $95 to $96.50. Qatar has stepped up mediation, but Iran's national security chief called the US response so far "not satisfactory". The API reported a 5.27 million barrel crude draw against an expected build of about 0.9 million. Source: Reuters, Bloomberg, Mitrade, 4 November 2026.

Warm weather and a storage cushion keep gas heavy near $2.90 (Medium impact — weighs on natural gas)​

Henry Hub futures fell through $3.00 and trade near $2.90. EIA data show an 80 Bcf injection to 3,724 Bcf, 38 Bcf above the five-year average, and NOAA favours above-normal temperatures through 10 November, which limits early heating demand. FXEmpire flags resistance near 2.927. Source: EIA, NOAA, FXEmpire, 4 November 2026.

Aluminium recovers with the dollar while Gulf supply stress keeps a floor (Medium impact — two-way aluminium)​

LME three-month aluminium has hovered near $3,000 since the war premium faded. Reuters notes that Iranian strikes and Hormuz disruption knocked out almost 3 million tonnes of Gulf capacity, offset by rising Indonesian output and Chinese exports; LME stocks remain near multi-decade lows. Source: Reuters, Investing.com, 4 November 2026.

Wheat sits near a 16-week low as Black Sea peace hopes keep selling pressure on (Medium impact — weighs on wheat)​

Wheat is down about 13.5% over the past month. Russia has allowed grain vessels to leave the Azov Sea for the first time since July and Putin has signalled readiness to resume peace talks, easing the supply risk premium, though drone attacks on shipping continue. Source: Trading Economics, Bloomberg, 4 November 2026.

Trade Setups​

All levels are conditional technical references for educational discussion only and do not constitute personal investment advice. Setups are listed in the order gold, silver, aluminium, natural gas, WTI crude and wheat and are valid until 21:00 GMT today. A 4-hour close beyond the stop cancels the idea, and each is cancelled if unfilled by 21:00 GMT. Entry is the midpoint of each entry zone, and reward:risk is the distance from entry to each target divided by the distance from entry to the stop; three targets are shown for each instrument. Every long entry sits below the market and needs a pullback, and the natural gas short needs a bounce; the 13:15 GMT ADP and 15:00 GMT ISM releases can gap prices through any level. Gold, silver and aluminium are all dollar-sensitive and a lasting dollar rebound would hit the three together. The "Exit if" lines are the source's own cancel conditions. All times are GMT.

Gold (XAU/USD) — 4,036.03 (+2.71%)​

Stance: Buy dips — higher while $4,000 holds (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 4,000.00
• Stop: 3,950.00
• Target: 4,075.00, then 4,115.00, then 4,205.00
• Reward:risk: 1.5 / 2.3 / 4.1

Thesis
Price is at the top line of a falling channel from the late-August high near 4,700, after a rebound from today's 3,919.93 low and the early-November trough near 3,870, and under the 4,073.89 fast, 4,205.34 medium and 4,218.73 slow averages. RSI at 45.69 is above its 38.89 average: improving. A 4-hour close above 4,073.89 opens 4,115 and 4,205; a close under 3,970 puts 3,919.93 back in play. Spot rose to about $4,039 as the dollar index slid to a one-month low and Treasury yields fell after the Democratic sweep, and a 15:00 GMT ISM beat is the main risk to the bounce. ADP at 13:15 GMT and ISM services at 15:00 GMT are the main catalysts, with the US 10-year yield near 4.90%. Support sits at 3,970 and 3,919.93, resistance at 4,073.89 and 4,115.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close below 3,950, or hot ADP and ISM readings that lift US yields.
• The trade is unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.

Silver (XAG/USD) — 51.92 (+4.29%)​

Stance: Buy dips — cautiously higher while 49.00 holds (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 50.80
• Stop: 49.00
• Target: 53.50, then 55.30, then 58.00
• Reward:risk: 1.5 / 2.5 / 4.0

Thesis
Price bounced from the floor of a falling channel that began in late August near 71.00; today's low was 48.965 and the channel top sits near 60. It trades far under the 55.33 fast, 60.67 medium and 61.11 slow averages. RSI at 37.48 is above its 33.54 average: recovering from near oversold. A 4-hour close above 55.33 targets 60.67; a break under 48.965 targets 47.50, the channel floor. Silver is up about 4% at 51.92, the day's biggest mover among the six, on the same weaker-dollar, lower-yield trade as gold, and it amplifies gold: it moves roughly twice as far on the same dollar and yield signals. Support sits at 48.97 and 47.50, resistance at 55.33 and 60.67.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close below 49.00, or gold failing at 4,073.89.
• The trade is unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.

Aluminium (ALIUSD) — 3,063.3 (+1.19%)​

Stance: Buy dips — mildly higher while 3,012 holds (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 3,030.0
• Stop: 2,985.0
• Target: 3,100.0, then 3,149.0, then 3,172.0
• Reward:risk: 1.6 / 2.6 / 3.2

Thesis
Price is inside a falling wedge from the June high near 3,780; the floor is near 2,940 after the October low, and the top line runs near 3,150. It has reclaimed the 3,028.2 fast average and trades under the 3,149.2 medium and 3,172.5 slow averages. RSI at 48.53 is above its 40.98 average: neutral and rising. A 4-hour close above 3,150 breaks the wedge top; a close under 3,012 returns price to 2,950. Aluminium is up 1.19% on the softer dollar, but resistance from the wedge top and the 3,149 to 3,173 averages is close; LME three-month metal has hovered near $3,000 since the war premium faded. Gulf smelter outages and LME stocks near multi-decade lows support the floor, while rising Chinese and Indonesian exports cap rallies. Support sits at 3,012.3 and 2,950.0, resistance at 3,149.2 and 3,172.5.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close below 2,985, or a sharp rebound in the dollar.
• The trade is unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.

Natural Gas (NG) — 2.902 (+0.24%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 2.95 to 2.97 caps (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 2.955
• Stop: 3.025
• Target: 2.840, then 2.750, then 2.600
• Reward:risk: 1.6 / 2.9 / 5.1

Thesis
Price fell out of a rising channel in late October to a low near 2.50 and is now back under the channel and a tight cluster of averages at 2.953 to 2.973 (2.953 fast, 2.971 medium and 2.973 slow). RSI at 48.13 is above its 43.70 average: neutral. A 4-hour close above 3.025 cancels the short and opens 3.10; a break under 2.839 targets 2.75. Gas is near 2.90 after dropping through its rising channel last month; storage is above the five-year average (the last EIA report showed an 80 Bcf injection to 3,724 Bcf, 38 Bcf above it) and warm weather is limiting early heating demand, with NOAA favouring above-normal temperatures through 10 November, so rallies into the averages are sell zones. Support sits at 2.839 and 2.750, resistance at 2.953 and 2.973.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 3.025, or a colder weather revision.
• The trade is unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.

Crude Oil (WTI, USOIL) — 96.58 (−0.18%)​

Stance: Buy dips — higher while 94.90 holds (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 95.20
• Stop: 93.20
• Target: 97.90, then 100.50, then 103.50
• Reward:risk: 1.4 / 2.6 / 4.1

Thesis
Price sits on the rising floor of a symmetrical triangle from the July low near 67; the falling top line from the March high is near 104, and the 94.90 medium average coincides with the floor. It is under the 97.90 fast average and above the 94.90 medium and 86.90 slow averages. RSI at 49.04 is under its 59.31 average: neutral to soft. A 4-hour close under 93.20 breaks the triangle floor and targets 86.90; a close above 97.90 opens 102. WTI is at 96.58 after a 94.90 low, balanced between hopes for a US-Iran deal that cap the price and an API crude draw of 5.27 million barrels that supports it; Brent settled at 103.60 yesterday, its lowest close since 7 October, while Iran's security chief called the US response so far "not satisfactory". The EIA figure at 15:30 GMT is the next test. Support sits at 94.90 and 86.90, resistance at 97.90 and 102.00.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close below 93.20, or an EIA build with a US-Iran deal headline.
• The trade is unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.

Wheat (WHEAT) — 613.3 (+0.43%)​

Stance: Buy dips — a counter-trend bounce while 603 holds (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 606.0
• Stop: 594.0
• Target: 625.0, then 646.0, then 660.0
• Reward:risk: 1.6 / 3.3 / 4.5

Thesis
Price is near the floor of a falling channel from the late-August high near 795; the channel top is near 660. It is under the 646.0 fast, 672.4 medium and 695.5 slow averages. RSI at 27.57 is under its 28.07 average: oversold but not yet turning, and the lowest of the six instruments. A 4-hour close under 594 resumes the slide toward 570; a close above 646 would be the first sign of a trend change. Wheat is down about 13% in a month on Black Sea peace hopes, and the 646 fast average is far above, so upside is a relief move inside a downtrend. Cash CBOT December wheat settled at 599.75 yesterday; the CFD quotes a higher deferred contract, so the two differ by about 10 to 14 cents. Support sits at 603.3 and 570.0, resistance at 646.0 and 672.4.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close below 594, or a Black Sea shipping deal headline.
• The trade is unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.

What to Watch — Rest of Today​

All times are GMT. US daylight saving time ended on 1 November, so 10:00 ET equals 15:00 GMT.

Time	Event	Note
Wed 4 Nov, 10:00 GMT	Eurozone flash CPI (October, y/y)	Forecast 4.0% against 3.8% prior. A hot print supports the euro and ECB-hike bets and can nudge the dollar lower, a mild plus for gold and aluminium
Wed 4 Nov, 13:15 GMT	US ADP employment (October)	Forecast about 67K to 69K against 90K prior. A strong reading lifts yields and the dollar and pressures gold and silver; a weak one extends the rally
Wed 4 Nov, 15:00 GMT	US ISM services PMI (October)	Forecast 54.8 against 54.9, with prices paid watched near 75. A hot print revives Fed-hike bets and tests gold at 4,073.89
Wed 4 Nov, 15:30 GMT	EIA crude inventories	Follows an API draw of 5.27 million barrels against an expected build. A draw above 2 million barrels backs the WTI floor at 94.90; a build breaks it
Wed 4 Nov, ongoing	US-Iran talks headlines	Qatar-led mediation continues. A deal headline pulls WTI toward 93 and pressures gold's safe-haven bid; a breakdown lifts WTI toward 100
Wed 4 Nov, 22:00 GMT	Daily close; Democratic sweep in focus	Daily candles close at 22:00 GMT, which settles the gold close above 4,000 and the WTI triangle-floor test

Analyst View — Rest of Session​

Wednesday's commodities session is a dollar-driven bounce in bullion on the Democratic sweep, with the rest of the board far less certain. The dollar is heavy but not broken, so CSFX prefers buying pullbacks in gold near 4,000 and aluminium near 3,030 at medium conviction, WTI near 95.20 at medium conviction, and silver near 50.80 and wheat near 606 at low conviction. Natural gas is the exception: a bounce into 2.955 is a selling area at medium conviction.
ADP at 13:15 GMT, ISM services at 15:00 GMT and the EIA report at 15:30 GMT are the swing factors for the rest of today. In a strong data, dollar-bid scenario, ADP and ISM above forecast with firmer yields would revive Fed-hike bets, push yields up and send gold, silver and aluminium back toward support, while an EIA build would take WTI under its triangle floor: gold at 4,000 then 3,970, silver at 50.80 then 48.97, aluminium at 3,028 then 3,012, natural gas at 2.84 then 2.75, WTI crude at 94.90 then 91.00 and wheat at 603.3 then 590.0. ADP comes first: a reading near or above 69K would back the dollar rebound and test the 4,000 entry zone in gold, while a reading below 67K would keep yields falling and give gold a path to 4,073.89 and 4,115.
A 4-hour close under 3,950 in gold or under 93.20 in WTI would change the picture. Size smaller into ADP at 13:15 GMT, ISM services at 15:00 GMT, EIA stocks at 15:30 GMT, US-Iran headlines and the 22:00 GMT close. Trade the levels, not the headlines.
Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/daily-commodity-report-04-nov-2026

 

[CapitalStreet]

Bitcoin Snaps Back From 75,618 as Democrats Take Congress: Ether Leads at +1.9%, Solana Stalls Under a Broken Trendline and Bitcoin Needs 80,087 to Confirm the Rebound​

​

Bitcoin has erased the election-night plunge in a matter of hours: from a low of 75,618, its weakest print since September, it is back at 78,103 (+0.98%) after Democrats won both chambers of Congress, and Ether (2,314.9, +1.89%) is the strongest of the five majors. Solana (92.74, +0.03%) and BNB (699.44, +0.35%) are barely moving, and that gap is the story of the session: this is a rebound in the leaders, not a market-wide recovery. Reuters says the dip reversed as US stock futures flipped positive, and the Dollar Index near 101.4 sits at a one-month low. About $366 million of mostly long positions were flushed on the way down, and the Fear and Greed reading of 34 shows traders still do not trust the bounce. The risks are real: crypto has shed roughly $300 billion in a month, spot Bitcoin ETFs have just posted their largest net outflow since early July, and the $6.3 billion Binance hack keeps draining the exchange, with $4.72 billion withdrawn net since it reopened. Bitcoin must close above 80,087 and Ether above 2,356 to turn this bounce into a trend, while a close under 75,618 would unwind it for all five.

Market at a Glance​

Feed prices from the daily charts captured at about 12:25 GMT on 4 November 2026 (Bitstamp for Bitcoin, Ether and XRP; Coinbase for Solana; the TradingView crypto index for BNB). A live Investing.com tick could not be pulled, so quotes were cross-checked against Reuters (Bitcoin 78,354 and Ether 2,323 at 08:41 GMT) and can differ by a small margin; check the live quote before trading. Changes are the daily-candle change against the previous close, and the daily candle is still open. Levels are in US dollars.

Instrument	Price	Change	Note
Bitcoin	$78,103	+0.98%	Prev close 77,345 — bounces off the 76,799 slow average inside a falling channel, RSI 41.90
Ether	$2,314.9	+1.89%	Prev close 2,272.1 — rebounds from the triangle floor into the 2,344–2,356 average cluster, RSI 42.89
XRP	$1.27716	+0.16%	Prev close 1.27509 — holds the triangle floor, capped under the 1.2926 slow average, RSI 43.00
Solana	$92.74	+0.03%	Prev close 92.71 — sits under the broken rising trendline, RSI 28.95, the weakest chart of the five
BNB	$699.44	+0.35%	Prev close 697.01 — rests on the rising floor of a large triangle, RSI 39.17, the weakest momentum

What Is Driving the Session​

Crypto rebounds from a September-level low after Democrats win both chambers​

Reuters reported Bitcoin touched its lowest level since September overnight, then rose 0.7% to 78,354 by 08:41 GMT as US stock futures reversed, while Ether gained 1.4% to 2,323. Solana, Dogecoin and Cardano rose 1.6% to 2.2% but have each lost nearly a quarter of their value in a month, and Bitcoin is still about 41% under its October 2025 record above 122,000. FXStreet noted that Bitcoin tested the 200-day exponential average near 76,501 before recovering, which makes 76,000 to 76,500 the line traders are watching.

Binance's $6.3 billion hack still dominates sentiment​

The FBI has attributed the record heist to North Korean hackers, and Binance says it has replaced about 90% of the stolen assets from its treasury, SAFU fund and futures insurance fund. Reuters reports customers withdrew a net $4.72 billion after the exchange reopened on Sunday. A HashKey analyst said the string of security incidents is forcing investors to re-examine custody risk.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs post their biggest net outflow since early July​

LSEG/Lipper data cited by Reuters put the post-hack ETF outflow at $884 million, the largest since early July, taking the year-to-date outflow to $1.84 billion. Bitcoin ETFs lost $643 million on the day after the hack alone, ending a four-day inflow run. Fresh flow prints today decide whether the 76,799 floor keeps attracting buyers.

A Democratic Congress puts the timing of US crypto legislation in question​

Reuters notes the industry spent more than $300 million backing candidates from both parties, and some Democrats favour light-touch rules. HashKey warns the shift could stall market-structure legislation, while Grayscale argues the result matters only at the margins. This hits the altcoins first if sentiment sours.

The Dollar is at a one-month low, but Fed-hike pricing keeps it two-way​

The Dollar Index is near 101.4 and the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.9% after the election result. ING says the market still prices about a 73% chance of a December Fed hike, so ADP at 13:15 GMT and ISM services at 15:00 GMT can reverse the Dollar move quickly. The Dollar is weak on politics, not on policy, so a hot print can flip it fast.

Trade Setups​

All levels are conditional technical references for educational discussion only and do not constitute personal investment advice. Setups are valid until 21:00 GMT today and are cancelled if unfilled by then, and all times are GMT. Entry is the midpoint of each entry zone. Every long entry sits below the market and needs a pullback, and the Solana short needs a bounce, and all five coins move with Bitcoin, so a break under 75,618 hits every long at once. The "Exit if" lines use each setup's own cancel condition in the source.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) — $78,103 (+0.98%)​

Stance: Buy dips — cautiously higher while 75,618 holds (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 76,900
• Stop: 75,400
• Target: 79,000, then 80,087, then 81,945
• Reward:risk: 1.4 / 2.1 / 3.4

Thesis
Price sits in the lower half of a falling channel from the late-September high near 88,000, above the 76,799 slow average and under the 80,087 fast and 81,945 medium averages. Today's low of 75,618 tagged the slow average and buyers defended it. RSI at 41.90 is stabilising, and a 4-hour close above 80,087 opens 81,945.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close below 75,400.
• Hot ADP and ISM readings lift the Dollar.

Ether (ETH/USD) — $2,314.9 (+1.89%)​

Stance: Buy dips — higher while 2,223 holds (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 2,260.0
• Stop: 2,185.0
• Target: 2,356.0, then 2,504.0, then 2,600.0
• Reward:risk: 1.3 / 3.3 / 4.5

Thesis
Price is inside a triangle with a rising floor from the late-June low near 1,520 and a falling top from the late-September high near 2,820. Today's low of 2,223 held just above the floor, and Ether is pressing the 2,343.9 and 2,355.8 averages, with a close above them needed to turn the bounce into a move. RSI at 42.89 is improving.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close below 2,185.
• Bitcoin loses 75,618.

XRP (XRP/USD) — $1.27716 (+0.16%)​

Stance: Buy dips — neutral-to-higher while 1.24 holds (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 1.2500
• Stop: 1.1950
• Target: 1.3087, then 1.3851, then 1.4500
• Reward:risk: 1.1 / 2.5 / 3.6

Thesis
Price is inside a triangle that began with the August spike from 0.98 to 1.70, with a rising floor near 1.21 and a falling top near 1.45, under the 1.30872 fast, 1.38508 medium and 1.29260 slow averages. XRP is the relative-strength name of the five, up about 1.6% over 24 hours, and today's low of 1.24017 stopped above the floor. RSI at 43.00 is improving.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close below 1.195.
• A Bitcoin break under 75,618.

Solana (SOL/USD) — $92.74 (+0.03%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while under 98.71, though a relief bounce is possible (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 96.00
• Stop: 100.20
• Target: 90.00, then 86.00, then 82.00
• Reward:risk: 1.4 / 2.4 / 3.3

Thesis
The rising trendline from the June low near 60 gave way on the 31 October candle and price is retesting it from below, with a falling top from the late-September high near 125, under the 100.12 fast, 108.52 medium and 98.71 slow averages. RSI at 28.95 is the most oversold of the five and still falling, so take profit quickly. A 4-hour close under 89.73 targets 86.00.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 100.20.
• A strong ISM-led rally lifts Bitcoin above 80,087.

BNB (BNB/USD) — $699.44 (+0.35%)​

Stance: Buy dips — neutral while 680.31 holds (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 688.00
• Stop: 672.00
• Target: 710.00, then 723.90, then 747.17
• Reward:risk: 1.4 / 2.2 / 3.7

Thesis
Price is at the rising floor of a large triangle from the July low near 535, under a falling top that has run since the October 2025 high above 1,300, with the 702.68 slow average overhead. Today's low of 680.31 touched the floor. BNB has lagged the rebound because Binance is still losing customer balances, and RSI at 39.17 is the weakest momentum of the five.
Exit if

• Fresh Binance security or outflow headlines.
• A 4-hour close below 672.

What to Watch — Rest of Today​

Time	Event	Note
Wed 4 Nov, 13:15 GMT	US ADP employment (Oct)	Forecast about 67K to 69K against 90K prior, a strong reading lifts yields and the Dollar
Wed 4 Nov, 14:30 GMT	US equity open	Crypto has tracked US stock futures all session, a weak open would put 76,799 in Bitcoin back in play
Wed 4 Nov, 15:00 GMT	US ISM services PMI (Oct)	Forecast 54.8 against 54.9, prices paid watched near 75
Ongoing	Binance outflows and ETF flow prints	Further net withdrawals keep BNB heavy, a return to ETF inflows would back the 76,799 floor
Ongoing	US-Iran talks and political headlines	A breakdown or a surprise on crypto legislation would hit the altcoins first
Thu 5 Nov, 00:00 GMT	Daily close	A close above 78,000 in Bitcoin would confirm the defence of the channel floor

Analyst View — Rest of Session​

The rebound is real but unconfirmed: Bitcoin needs a 4-hour close above 80,087 and Ether above 2,356 before the bounce turns into a trend. CSFX prefers buying pullbacks in Bitcoin near 76,900 and Ether near 2,260 at medium conviction, XRP near 1.250 at medium conviction and BNB near 688 at low conviction. Solana is the exception: a bounce into 96.00 is a selling area at low conviction.
ADP comes first at 13:15 GMT. A reading near or above 69K would back a Dollar rebound and test the 76,900 entry zone in Bitcoin, while a reading below 67K would keep yields falling and give Bitcoin a path to 80,087. If ADP and ISM come in above forecast with firmer yields, they would revive Fed-hike bets and send the five coins back toward today's lows, with another Binance outflow headline adding to BNB's weakness: Bitcoin at 76,799 then 75,618, Ether at 2,260 then 2,223, XRP at 1.2402 then 1.2000, Solana at 89.73 then 86.00 and BNB at 680.31 then 672.00.
A 4-hour close under 75,618 in Bitcoin would change the picture for all five. Size smaller into ADP at 13:15 GMT, ISM services at 15:00 GMT, Binance and ETF flow headlines, and the 00:00 GMT daily close, and check the live quote before trading.
Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/crypto-daily-report-04-nov-2026

 

[CapitalStreet]

Dow Rips 1,100 Points on the Blue Sweep: ISM Services Misses at 54.5, DAX Jumps 2.35% and the 21:00 GMT Close Decides the Breakout​

​

Wall Street is surging after the Blue Sweep: Democrats have taken both chambers of Congress, the Dow is up about 1,100 points at 52,902.28 (+2.14%), the Nasdaq 100 is at 28,669.25 (+1.74%), and Europe has joined the charge, with the DAX at 26,472.12 (+2.35%) and the FTSE 100 at 10,827.00 (+1.77%). Investors are reading the decisive result, and Trump's statement that he will accept it and work with the opposition, as the removal of a major political risk. Deutsche Bank's George Saravelos expects a divided Washington to act as a brake on extreme policy outcomes. The rally is not uniform: tech lags because a Democratic Congress raises the chance of restrictions on AI data centres, and the Nasdaq 100 is still retesting the underside of a broken channel even after AMD's data-centre earnings beat. Asia was mixed earlier, with the Nikkei (62,188.41, −1.42%) hitting a three-month low near 60,030 before recovering, while the Hang Seng closed at 23,919.50 (+1.67%) on its session high. The macro tape stays two-way. ISM services has just printed at 54.5, below the 54.8 forecast and the 54.9 prior, with new orders cooling to 55.9 from 59.8 and business activity easing to 53.8 from 56.5. Employment improved to 51.4, and the prices index held at 73, down one point but above 70 for the seventh time in eight months, so the report trims the growth story without removing the inflation worry. It follows a mixed run of data: Eurozone flash CPI hit 4.0%, as forecast, and ADP beat at 86K, both of which would normally favour higher yields; instead the dollar index is near a one-month low around 101.2 and WTI crude is down about 3% near $93. EIA crude stocks at 15:30 GMT, the Bank of England decision at 12:00 GMT on Thursday and the 21:00 GMT US close are the next tests. Daily RSI readings are 41.43 (Nasdaq 100), 59.41 (Dow), 65.18 (DAX), 57.47 (FTSE 100) and 37.95 (Nikkei). The desk plan: buy pullbacks in the Dow near 52,650 and the DAX near 26,250 at medium conviction, buy the FTSE 100 near 10,740 and the Hang Seng near 23,700 at low conviction, and sell a retest of the Nasdaq 100 near 28,900 at low conviction. Every entry sits away from the current price, so patience is part of the trade.

Market at a Glance​

Prices as of about 15:00 GMT on 4 November 2026, read from daily charts captured at 15:00 GMT: TVC for the Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones and Nikkei 225, XETR for the DAX 40 and FTSE for the FTSE 100. The Hang Seng is its Hong Kong close (08:00 GMT) from the Investing.com feed, and Hong Kong is shut until 01:30 GMT, so trading now is via CFDs. The prices match the Investing.com figures where published (for example the Nikkei at 62,188.63 and the Hang Seng close at 23,919.50). Quotes were cross-checked against Investing.com, Reuters, CNBC, CNN, Yahoo Finance, Eurostat via FXStreet, Xinhua and other public reports and can differ by a small margin across feeds; check the live quote before trading. The Hang Seng has no chart in this report; its levels come from the session range. Percentage changes are the daily-candle change against the previous close, and US daily candles are still open. All prices are index points.

Instrument	Price	Change	Note
Nasdaq 100 (NDX)	28,669.25	+488.99 (+1.74%)	Previous close 28,180.26 — rebound stalls under the broken channel floor, under all three averages, RSI 41.43
Dow Jones (DJI)	52,902.28	+1,110.09 (+2.14%)	Previous close 51,792.19 — breaks out of the top of a symmetrical triangle above all three averages, RSI 59.41
DAX 40 (DAX)	26,472.12	+607.50 (+2.35%)	Previous close 25,864.62 — gaps above the averages to the channel's August high, RSI 65.18
FTSE 100 (UKX)	10,827.00	+188.57 (+1.77%)	Previous close 10,638.43 — banks drive the best day since July as price presses the top line of a triangle, RSI 57.47
Hang Seng (HSI)	23,919.50	+393.53 (+1.67%)	Hong Kong close — previous close 23,525.97 — closes at the session high after a reversal from 23,385, no chart supplied
Nikkei 225 (NI225)	62,188.41	−893.23 (−1.42%)	Previous close 63,081.64 — wicks to 60,030 and rebounds from the triangle floor, RSI 37.95, context only

What Is Driving the Session​

Democrats sweep Congress and the Dow jumps more than 1,000 points (High impact — supports equities)​

CNN reported the Dow up about 1,045 points, or 2%, shortly after the opening bell, as investors welcomed a decisive result and the prospect of gridlock. CNBC later put the gain near 1,236 points, with the S&P 500 up about 1.7% and the Nasdaq Composite up about 2.1%, after Trump said he would accept the outcome and work with Democrats. Source: CNN, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, 4 November 2026.

Chip stocks lag on data-centre restriction fears (High impact — risk for AI and chips)​

Yahoo Finance noted Nvidia and Micron fell more than 1% early as the market weighed ballot measures and new officials that could limit data-centre construction. Nasdaq 100 futures had fallen as much as 2.4% overnight before reversing, and the index is still more than 10% under its October high. Source: Yahoo Finance, Coinpaper, 4 November 2026.

London banks surge ahead of an expected Bank of England hike (High impact — supports FTSE 100)​

Investing.com reported the FTSE 100 up 1.6% in its best session since July, with HSBC, Barclays, Lloyds, NatWest and Standard Chartered up 3% to 5%. Money markets price roughly an 80% chance of a 25 basis point hike to 4% on Thursday, and gold miners also gained as the dollar fell. Source: Investing.com, Reuters, 4 November 2026.

Eurozone inflation hits 4% as forecast (Medium impact — mixed for the DAX)​

Flash CPI rose to 4.0% in October from 3.8%, in line with forecasts and the highest since September 2023, with energy inflation near 21%. CNBC framed it as adding to the case for an ECB rate hike, while the DAX still rallied on the US result. Source: CNBC, Eurostat via FXStreet, 4 November 2026.

Nikkei falls to a three-month low before trimming losses (Medium impact — weighs on the Nikkei)​

Japan's index touched about 60,030 (down roughly 4.8%) as AI-linked stocks sold off on election jitters, then closed down 1.42% at 62,188.63. Reuters and ABC noted the Kospi reversed an early drop of more than 3%. Source: Investing.com, ABC News, 4 November 2026.

Hang Seng reverses a weak open to close at 23,919.50 (Medium impact — supports the Hang Seng)​

The index rose 1.67%, or 393.53 points, as innovative-drug, gold and AI-hardware stocks led an afternoon rally once US media called Congress for the Democrats. The Hang Seng Tech Index gained 1.77% to 3,936.02 and the China Enterprises Index 1.44% to 8,057.59. Source: Zhitong Finance, Xinhua, Investing.com, 4 November 2026.

ADP beats at 86K, dollar sits near a one-month low (Medium impact — two-way USD)​

ADP private payrolls rose 86,000 against 65,000 expected, a firmer reading that would normally lift yields and the dollar. The dollar index is near 101.2 after hitting a one-month low on the election result, so the ISM release at 15:00 GMT is the next swing factor. Source: investingLive, Investing.com, 4 November 2026.

Trade Setups​

All levels are conditional technical references for educational discussion only and do not constitute personal investment advice. Setups are listed in the order Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, DAX 40, FTSE 100 and Hang Seng and are valid until 21:00 GMT today. A 4-hour close beyond the stop cancels the idea, and each is cancelled if unfilled by 21:00 GMT. Entry is the midpoint of each entry zone, and reward:risk is the distance from entry to each target divided by the distance from entry to the stop; three targets are shown for each index. Every long entry sits below the market and needs a pullback, and the Nasdaq 100 short needs a bounce; the 15:00 GMT ISM release can gap prices through any level. The Dow, DAX and Nasdaq 100 all trade the same risk-on impulse, so a lasting reversal would hit them together. The Nikkei 225 has no setup and is context only. The "Exit if" lines are the source's own cancel conditions. All times are GMT.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) — 28,669.25 (+1.74%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while price stays under 29,000 (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 28,900.00
• Stop: 29,200.00
• Target: 28,450.00, then 28,100.00, then 27,650.00
• Reward:risk: 1.5 / 2.7 / 4.2

Thesis
Price fell out of the rising channel that began in late July and is now back at its underside near 28,700 to 29,000. Today's low was 28,276 and the index sits more than 10% under its October high near 31,300. It is under the 29,502.01 fast, 29,525.09 medium and 29,742.27 slow averages. RSI at 41.43 is above its 40.19 average: weak and barely turning. A 4-hour close above 29,000 cancels the short and opens 29,502; a break under 28,276 targets 28,100. The index is up 1.74% after reversing overnight losses of as much as 2.4% in futures, but the bounce is retesting the broken floor of its channel from below; Reuters and CNBC both flag data-centre restrictions as the sector risk after the Democratic sweep, and chip names such as Nvidia and Micron slipped early. Support sits at 28,276.22 and 27,700, resistance at 29,000 and 29,502.01.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 29,200, or a hot ISM services reading that lifts yields.
• The trade is unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.

Dow Jones (DJI) — 52,902.28 (+2.14%)​

Stance: Buy dips — higher while 52,415 holds (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 52,650.00
• Stop: 52,100.00
• Target: 53,400.00, then 54,000.00, then 54,700.00
• Reward:risk: 1.4 / 2.5 / 3.7

Thesis
Price has broken above the falling top line of a symmetrical triangle drawn from the August high near 54,800, closing the gap left by Tuesday's dip; the rising floor from the April low is near 51,500. It is above the 52,135.51 fast, 52,144.61 medium and 52,419.01 slow averages. RSI at 59.41 is above its 54.15 average: firm and rising. A 4-hour close above 53,038 opens 54,000; a close back under 52,415 would signal a failed breakout. The Dow is up about 1,110 points after a decisive Democratic win in both chambers; Trump has said he will work with the opposition, which removes the election uncertainty that capped the index at the triangle top, and Deutsche Bank's George Saravelos said a divided Washington should act as a brake on extreme policy and lower risk premia. Support sits at 52,415.24 and 52,135.51, resistance at 53,038.30 and 54,000.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close below 52,100, or an ISM reading that revives Fed-hike bets.
• The trade is unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.

DAX 40 (DAX) — 26,472.12 (+2.35%)​

Stance: Buy dips — higher while 25,877 holds (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 26,250.00
• Stop: 25,900.00
• Target: 26,800.00, then 27,200.00, then 27,600.00
• Reward:risk: 1.6 / 2.7 / 3.9

Thesis
Price is climbing inside a rising channel from the March low near 21,800; the top line is near 28,000 and the floor near 24,600, and today's candle is the largest gain since October. It is above the 25,521.98 fast, 25,547.70 medium and 25,572.14 slow averages, which are bunched together. RSI at 65.18 is above its 54.35 average: strong but not yet overbought. A 4-hour close above 26,550 opens 27,000; a close under 25,877 returns price to the averages. The DAX is up 2.35% at 26,472 and challenging its August peak near 26,550; Eurostat's flash October CPI rose to 4.0% from 3.8%, the highest since September 2023, with energy inflation near 21%, keeping ECB-hike bets alive, but the gain was driven by the US election result and a weaker dollar. Support sits at 25,876.82 and 25,521.98, resistance at 26,550 and 27,000.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close below 25,900, or a US reversal after the ISM release.
• The trade is unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.

FTSE 100 (UKX) — 10,827.00 (+1.77%)​

Stance: Buy dips — higher while 10,712 holds, with resistance close (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 10,740.00
• Stop: 10,640.00
• Target: 10,890.00, then 10,960.00, then 11,050.00
• Reward:risk: 1.5 / 2.2 / 3.1

Thesis
Price is pressing the falling top line of a triangle from the late-July high near 10,990, with the rising floor near 10,560, and today's candle erased Monday's drop and cleared the 10,683 to 10,712 averages. It is above the 10,712.02 fast, 10,697.40 medium and 10,682.76 slow averages. RSI at 57.47 is above its 53.57 average: improving. A 4-hour close above 10,880 breaks the triangle and opens 11,000; a close under 10,712 puts the floor in play. London is up 1.77% at 10,827, led by lenders on an expected 25 basis point Bank of England hike on Thursday and by gold miners as the dollar fell; HSBC, Barclays, Lloyds, NatWest and Standard Chartered rose roughly 3.6% to 4.8%, and money markets price about an 80% chance of a hike to 4%. Support sits at 10,631.96 and 10,560, resistance at 10,880 and 11,000.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close below 10,640, or a reversal in bank shares.
• The trade is unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.

Hang Seng (HSI) — 23,919.50 (+1.67%, Hong Kong close)​

Stance: Buy dips — higher while 23,385 holds (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 23,700.00
• Stop: 23,350.00
• Target: 24,225.00, then 24,500.00, then 25,000.00
• Reward:risk: 1.5 / 2.3 / 3.7

Thesis
No chart was supplied for this index, so levels come from the session range and public reports rather than moving averages. The Hang Seng dipped to 23,385 at the open, then closed at its high of 23,919.50 as drug, gold and AI-hardware shares led an afternoon rally on the US election result; today's range was 23,385.29 to 23,919.50 on turnover of about HK$236.9 billion. Closing on the high is a strong signal, but it sits under 24,000 resistance. A move above 24,000 opens 24,500; a break under 23,385 returns price to 23,000. Local reports cite a return to expansion in Hong Kong's October services PMI, and the 52-week range is 22,518 to 28,056. Hong Kong is shut until 01:30 GMT, so trading now is via CFDs. Support sits at 23,385.29 and 23,000, resistance at 24,000 and 24,500.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close below 23,350, or a sharp US reversal.
• The trade is unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.

Nikkei 225 (NI225) — 62,188.41 (−1.42%) — context only, no trade idea​

The Nikkei wicked down to a three-month low of 60,030 (about −4.8%) in an AI-stock selloff on election jitters, then recovered to close down 1.42%. Bias is lower while price stays under 63,105; the index is the weak link in the region, lagging the Hang Seng (+1.67%) and the Shanghai Composite (+2.16%). Price pierced the rising floor of a symmetrical triangle drawn from the late-March low near 50,500 and closed back at it; the top line is near 70,900. It is under the 65,295.38 fast, 65,555.23 medium and 66,430.38 slow averages, and RSI at 37.95 is under its 40.43 average: weak. A close under 60,030 would break the triangle floor; a 4-hour close above 63,105 starts a relief move toward the 65,295 average. Support sits at 60,030.10 and 61,400, resistance at 63,105.47 and 65,295.38. Tokyo reopens at 00:00 GMT.

What to Watch — Rest of Today​

All times are GMT. US daylight saving time ended on 1 November, so 10:00 ET equals 15:00 GMT. The source's overview reports ISM services as already printed, while its drivers table and scenario text still treat it as upcoming at 15:00 GMT; both are shown below.

Time	Event	Note
Wed 4 Nov, 10:00 GMT (released)	Eurozone flash CPI (October, y/y)	Came in at 4.0% against 3.8% prior, matching forecasts. It keeps ECB-hike bets alive and is already in the DAX price
Wed 4 Nov, 13:15 GMT (released)	US ADP employment (October)	86K against 65K expected. A firmer print that tests the post-election dollar weakness and US yields
Wed 4 Nov, 15:00 GMT	US ISM services PMI (October)	The overview reports a print of 54.5 against the 54.8 forecast and 54.9 prior, with prices paid at 73; the drivers table lists a forecast near 54.8 with prices paid watched. A hot print revives Fed-hike bets and hits the Nasdaq 100 first
Wed 4 Nov, 15:30 GMT	US EIA crude inventories	Moves oil and, through energy shares, the Dow and FTSE 100; an API draw of 5.27 million barrels was reported on Tuesday
Wed 4 Nov, 21:00 GMT	US cash close and daily candle	Dow and Nasdaq daily candles close at 21:00 GMT, which sets whether the Dow breakout and the Nasdaq retest are confirmed
Thu 5 Nov, 00:00 GMT	Tokyo reopens	The Nikkei 225 reacts to Wall Street
Thu 5 Nov, 01:30 GMT	Hong Kong reopens	The Hang Seng's next cash session
Thu 5 Nov, 12:00 GMT	Bank of England decision	Bank shares are trading it today. An 80% priced 25 bp hike to 4% is in the FTSE 100 price; a hold would hurt lenders

Analyst View — Rest of Session​

Wednesday's indices session is a post-election rally that is not uniform. The election result has removed a layer of risk, but the move is already large, so CSFX prefers buying pullbacks in the Dow near 52,650 and the DAX near 26,250 at medium conviction, and the FTSE 100 near 10,740 and the Hang Seng near 23,700 at low conviction. The Nasdaq 100 is the exception: a bounce into 28,900 is a selling area at low conviction while data-centre risk hangs over tech.
ISM services at 15:00 GMT, EIA crude at 15:30 GMT and the 21:00 GMT US close are the swing factors for the rest of today. If ISM comes in above forecast with firmer yields, the post-election rally fades, as a hot reading on top of the ADP beat would revive Fed-hike bets, lift the dollar and hit rate-sensitive tech first: the Nasdaq 100 would fall to 28,276 then 28,100, the Dow Jones to 52,415 then 52,135, the DAX 40 to 25,877 then 25,548, the FTSE 100 to 10,712 then 10,632 and the Hang Seng to 23,385 then 23,000. A reading above 54.8 would back a yield rebound and test the Dow's 52,650 entry zone, while a reading below 54.0 keeps the rally open and gives the Dow a path to 53,400 and 54,000.
A 4-hour close under 52,100 in the Dow or above 29,200 in the Nasdaq 100 would change the picture. Size smaller into ISM services at 15:00 GMT, EIA stocks at 15:30 GMT and the 21:00 GMT US close. Trade the levels, not the headlines.
Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/daily-index-report-04-nov-2026

 

[CapitalStreet]

Payrolls Day: the Dollar Defends Its Floor After a 5.5% Nasdaq Rout, the Aussie Sinks, and USD/JPY Prices a 141-Pip Move at 13:30 GMT​

​

With roughly eight hours to US payrolls, the Dollar is cornered at its last line of defence while risk bleeds: a 5.5% Nasdaq rout has dragged the Aussie down 0.54%, pushed GBP/CHF through its channel floor, and left USD/JPY options pricing a 141-pip swing. Thursday's AI-led selloff took the S&P 500 down 4.4%, the Nikkei plunged in Asia, and the Dollar Index is clinging to the 101.285–101.232 support zone. At 05:23 GMT, AUD/USD (0.68924, -0.54%) leads the losses, EUR/USD (1.11980, -0.18%) sits on its 1.11937 average, and GBP/CHF (1.09640, -0.18%) is sliding toward its 1.09304 average, while USD/JPY (157.883, +0.13%) and USD/CAD (1.40446, +0.18%) are firmer and USD/CHF (0.81654, +0.01%) rests on its channel floor. US payrolls are forecast at +56K to +65K against 29K, with unemployment at 4.2% and earnings +0.3%, and Canada's jobs report lands in the same minute after a 68.3K loss. A December Fed hike is still priced at 68.4% and the 10-year yield is near 4.85%, so a print above 65K lifts yields and the Dollar through 101.75, while a print under 40K breaks the 101.23 floor and opens 100.26. This is a 05:23 GMT snapshot, and payrolls are not yet out.

Market at a Glance​

Chart-feed prices from the daily charts at about 05:22–05:23 GMT on 6 November 2026 (OANDA for AUD/USD, GBP/CHF and USD/CAD; FXCM for USD/JPY, EUR/USD and USD/CHF). A live Investing.com tick could not be pulled, so check the live quote before trading. Changes are the daily-candle change against the previous close (the candle opened at 22:00 GMT on 5 November and closes at 22:00 GMT today). Implied moves for today: 141 pips in USD/JPY, 75 in EUR/USD and 66 in AUD/USD, against a 49-pip daily average.

Instrument	Price	Change	Note
USD/JPY	157.883	+0.13%	Prev close 157.671 — breaks the triangle line, between the 157.289 and 157.927 averages, RSI 50.51
AUD/USD	0.68924	-0.54%	Prev close 0.69300 — under all three averages inside a falling channel, RSI 35.38, nearest to oversold
EUR/USD	1.11980	-0.18%	Prev close 1.12183 — stalls on the 1.11937 average inside a falling channel, RSI 44.39
GBP/CHF	1.09640	-0.18%	Prev close 1.09835 — breaks below its rising channel, heads for the 1.09304 average, RSI 43.44
USD/CAD	1.40446	+0.18%	Prev close 1.40190 — clears the falling line, sits on the 1.4044 averages, RSI 48.67
USD/CHF	0.81654	+0.01%	Prev close 0.81643 — on the channel floor and the 0.81589 average, RSI 39.44

What Is Driving the Session​

The Dollar holds its floor, and the AI rout erases the post-election rally​

The Dollar Index holds the 101.28–101.23 support zone, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell to about 4.84%, a two-month low, yet the Dollar held and ranks strongest among the majors today. Markets cut 2027 tightening bets but still price a 68.4% chance of a hike on 9 December, down from 81.8% on 4 November. DXY resistance is 101.75, then 102.49, and a sustained break under 101.23 opens 100.26. The S&P 500 fell 4.4% and the Nasdaq 5.5%, led by semiconductor and data-centre stocks, and Bitcoin fell under 76,000.

Payrolls and Canada jobs land in the same minute​

October payrolls are forecast at +65K on Investing.com (+56K on some calendars) after +29K in September, with unemployment at 4.2% and earnings +0.3%. Thursday's jobless claims fell to 189K against 196K expected and ADP showed 86K, so a miss is not the base case. Canada is forecast at roughly +14K to +18K after a 68.3K loss, with unemployment at 6.5%, so USD/CAD sees the net surprise.

The Aussie leads losses and the Pound's lift fades​

The RBA raised rates on 3 November in a 6–3 vote to 4.85%, the fifth hike of 2026, but traders have cut bets on another near-term move, and AUD/USD has slid from about 0.6930 to 0.6892. The Bank of England hiked to 4.00% on an 8–1 vote (Catherine Mann voted for 50 bp) and said inflation could approach 5% by mid-2027, but Sterling's lift faded in the risk-off tone as the Franc caught safe-haven demand and GBP/CHF slipped below its channel.

The Yen, Loonie, Euro and Franc​

Lower Treasury yields and BoJ minutes open to more hikes help the Yen, and USD/JPY holds near 157.9 above the triangle line. Tokyo and Washington carried out a joint intervention in early August from near 164, so a payrolls-driven spike toward 159–160 would draw warnings. USD/CAD rebounded from 1.3930 after the BoC's first hike since 2023 (to 2.50% on 28 October), with WTI back near $90 after a sharp slide. Eurozone October inflation rose to 4.0%, the highest since 2023, and about 88% of a December ECB hike is priced, which cushions the Euro, while USD/CHF sits near 0.8165 with the SNB at 0%.

Trade Setups​

All levels are conditional technical references for educational discussion only and do not constitute personal investment advice. Setups are valid until 21:00 GMT today and are cancelled if unfilled by then, and all times are GMT. Every entry sits away from the current price and needs a pullback or a bounce to trigger, and the 13:30 GMT payrolls can gap prices through them. Three ideas are long and three are short, but five of the six are effectively Dollar-long (USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF long; AUD/USD and EUR/USD short), so a soft payrolls print would hit most of them at once. The "Exit if" lines use each setup's own cancel condition in the source.

USD/JPY — 157.883 (+0.13%)​

Stance: Buy dips — higher on dips while 156.30 holds (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 157.30
• Stop: 156.60
• Target: 158.40, then 159.07, then 159.80
• Reward:risk: 1.6 / 2.5 / 3.6

Thesis
Price is on the upper line of the symmetrical triangle between the late-July high near 164 and the early-September low near 153, and has closed above the falling line, between the 157.289 and 157.927 averages with the 159.066 average overhead. RSI at 50.51 is flat. US 10-year yields near 4.85% and BoJ hike talk limit the upside, and a close under 157.29 puts the rising triangle line near 156.30 in play.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close under 156.60.
• Tokyo intervenes and USD/JPY drops through 156.30.

AUD/USD — 0.68924 (-0.54%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower on bounces while 0.7000 caps (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 0.6950
• Stop: 0.7000
• Target: 0.6890, then 0.6845, then 0.6800
• Reward:risk: 1.2 / 2.1 / 3.0

Thesis
Price is in a falling channel from the early-September high near 0.7240 and has dropped from the 0.7045 area toward the 0.6890 support, under the 0.6990, 0.7029 and 0.7045 averages. RSI at 35.38 is the weakest of the six. Daily heat maps rank AUD and NZD the weakest majors despite the RBA hike, and a close above 0.7000 would end the lower-high sequence.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 0.7000.
• Payrolls miss sharply and equities rebound.

EUR/USD — 1.11980 (-0.18%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower on bounces while 1.1305 caps (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 1.1250
• Stop: 1.1305
• Target: 1.1180, then 1.1120, then 1.1050
• Reward:risk: 1.3 / 2.4 / 3.6

Thesis
Price is inside the falling channel from the late-August high near 1.1710 and sits on the 1.11937 average, with the 1.13438 and 1.14145 averages overhead and the channel floor near 1.1040. RSI at 44.39 is mildly improving but below 50. Defensive Dollar demand and a still-priced 68.4% December Fed hike outweigh talk of another ECB increase, and a close under 1.1190 targets 1.1120.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 1.1305.
• Payrolls miss and the Dollar loses DXY 101.23.

GBP/CHF — 1.09640 (-0.18%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower on bounces while 1.1030 caps (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 1.0990
• Stop: 1.1030
• Target: 1.0935, then 1.0900, then 1.0850
• Reward:risk: 1.4 / 2.2 / 3.5

Thesis
Price has broken below the rising channel that began at the early-June low near 1.0490 and approaches the 1.09304 average, under the 1.09999 and 1.10136 averages. RSI at 43.44 has turned down. The BoE's hike did not lift Sterling for long because the Franc is bid in the equity rout, and a close under 1.0930 targets 1.0890.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 1.1030.
• Equities rebound sharply and the Franc unwinds.

USD/CAD — 1.40446 (+0.18%)​

Stance: Buy dips — higher on dips while 1.3950 holds (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 1.4010
• Stop: 1.3950
• Target: 1.4070, then 1.4150, then 1.4250
• Reward:risk: 1.0 / 2.3 / 4.0

Thesis
Price bounced from a seven-week low of 1.3930 and has broken the falling line from October, holding the rising line from the early-September low near 1.3750, on the 1.40437 and 1.40447 averages with 1.40677 overhead. RSI at 48.67 has turned up. US payrolls and Canada's jobs report both land at 13:30 GMT, so the net surprise sets direction, with WTI near $90 a factor.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close under 1.3950.
• Canadian employment beats and payrolls miss.

USD/CHF — 0.81654 (+0.01%)​

Stance: Buy dips — a bounce from support while 0.8110 holds (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 0.8155
• Stop: 0.8110
• Target: 0.8200, then 0.8230, then 0.8250
• Reward:risk: 1.0 / 1.7 / 2.1

Thesis
Price has fallen from the mid-October high near 0.8390 to the floor of the rising channel that began in late July and rests on the 0.81589 average, under the 0.82304 and 0.82482 averages. RSI at 39.44 is weak. The Franc is the second-strongest major today and the Dollar the strongest, so a firm payrolls print favours the bounce, and a close under 0.8110 would break the channel floor.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close under 0.8110.
• Payrolls miss and risk-off flows lift the Franc.

What to Watch — Today's GMT Clock​

Time	Event	Note
Fri 6 Nov, 08:00 GMT	London cash open	Sets the European tone after the Asian equity slide
Fri 6 Nov, 13:30 GMT	US payrolls (Oct) and Canada jobs	Payrolls +56K to +65K, unemployment 4.2%, Canada +14K to +18K, 6.5%
Fri 6 Nov, 15:00 GMT	University of Michigan sentiment (prelim)	Forecast near 48, year-ahead inflation expectations feed the 68.4% December hike pricing
Fri 6 Nov, after 13:30 GMT	Fed speakers Williams and Bowman	The 10-year yield near 4.85% drives USD/JPY and USD/CHF
Fri 6 Nov, 21:00 and 22:00 GMT	Setup expiry and daily close	Unfilled ideas lapse at 21:00 GMT, FX daily candles close at 22:00 GMT

Analyst View — Rest of Session​

The Dollar is defending DXY 101.23 and December Fed hike pricing is still 68.4%, so CSFX prefers buying dips in USD/JPY near 157.30 (medium conviction), USD/CAD near 1.4010 and USD/CHF near 0.8155 (low conviction), and selling bounces in AUD/USD near 0.6950 (medium), GBP/CHF near 1.0990 (medium) and EUR/USD near 1.1250 (low).
A strong jobs print would lift yields: payrolls above 65K with firm wages would restore Fed tightening bets, push the 10-year yield back up and lift DXY through 101.75. USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF would extend, while AUD/USD and EUR/USD fall back, with GBP/CHF assuming the Franc stays bid: USD/JPY at 158.20 then 159.07, AUD/USD at 0.6890 then 0.6850, EUR/USD at 1.1190 then 1.1120, GBP/CHF at 1.0930 then 1.0890, USD/CAD at 1.4068 then 1.4150 and USD/CHF at 0.8200 then 0.8230. A soft print under 40K would break the 101.23 floor and open 100.26.
A 4-hour close under 156.60 in USD/JPY or above 0.7000 in AUD/USD would change the picture. Size smaller into payrolls and Canada jobs at 13:30 GMT, the Michigan survey at 15:00 GMT and any Tokyo intervention warning near 160, and check the live quote before trading.
Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/daily-forex-report-06-nov-2026

 

[CapitalStreet]

NFP Is a Rough Estimate That Gets Traded Like a Headcount. How Do You Handle It?​

What the data behind the jobs report really shows, and a few questions for fellow traders​

Every first Friday the same thing happens. Spreads widen, stops get nervous, and the Non-Farm Payrolls number lands at 8:30 New York time. I've been going through the data behind it, and I think a lot of us trade it with more confidence than the number deserves. Here is what the numbers show, followed by a few questions for the group.

What the Number Actually Is​

The payroll figure comes from a survey of roughly 121,000 businesses and agencies, covering about a third of US payroll jobs. When the headline is first published, only around 60% of sampled employers have replied (the 2024 average was 60.4%). That works out to roughly 73,000 respondents. The rest is filled in with a statistical model, including a "birth-death" adjustment for businesses too new to be surveyed or too closed to answer.
The margin of error is about plus or minus 136,000 jobs. In 2026 that has been larger than the headline itself in five of the first nine months. A +50k print is statistically compatible with a hiring spree and with a hiring freeze.
Seasonal adjustment does heavy lifting too. In January 2026 the raw payroll count fell by about 2.63 million, yet the published headline was +160k. In July the raw count fell by about 1.03 million and the headline was -10k. Both are legitimate, but the headline is a statement about how this month compares with a typical month, not a literal headcount.

The Revision Problem​

Looking at 26 consecutive first prints (July 2023 to September 2025) against today's settled values:

Metric	Value
Average first print	~189k
Average settled value	~101k
Revised down	23 of 26 months
Average size of revision	~93k
Average surprise vs consensus	~71k
Landed on the other side of consensus after revision	9 of 26 months

So the typical revision was bigger than the typical surprise that moved prices on the day. On top of that, the February 2026 annual benchmark cut the March 2025 payroll level by 898,000 jobs, the largest downward benchmark since 2009.
Some of the famous NFP days were reactions to numbers that later changed. The 114k print that helped trigger the August 2024 carry-trade unwind now reads 53k. The 517k print in February 2023 now reads 434k.

What the Market Does Anyway​

Despite all that, the reaction is real and fast. CME Group data show how much trading volume jumps in the first minute after a one-standard-deviation surprise:

Futures market	Volume vs a normal first minute
Interest-rate futures	~9x
FX futures	~12x
Equity-index futures	~5x

Published averages for price moves:

• Gold: roughly a quarter of one percent in the first 15 minutes
• 10-year yield: about 8.5bp on release day versus 4.3bp on a normal day
• S&P 500: about 1.05% on release day versus 0.65% normally

One interesting detail: over the whole day, the headline surprise adds no statistically meaningful volume in FX or equity futures. The unemployment-rate surprise does. The headline is the fireworks and the jobless rate is the lasting story.

How to Think About Trading It​

1. Sit out the first minutes. Spreads can widen 3 to 6 times. If your normal gold stop is $12, your real risk at the release is much higher than the screen suggests.
2. Wait for the second move. Let the first 1 to 5 minutes burn out, then look at 8:35 to 9:00 once revisions, wages and unemployment have been digested.
3. Read revisions first. A -100k revision to prior months can matter more than the new print.
4. Treat small surprises as noise. Anything under about 83k (one standard error) is hard to tell from sampling error.
5. Know the regime. In an inflation scare, good news tends to hurt stocks (February 2018, February 2023). In a growth scare, bad news hurts (August 2024).
6. Size for error. Size as if the headline could be 136k wrong, because it might be.

The Bigger Picture​

A few things are slowly eroding the number's grip: the growing share of freelancers and contractors who are on no payroll (about 11.9 million independent contractors in 2023), falling survey response rates, and overnight US stock trading, which Nasdaq plans to launch on 6 December 2026. The report probably stays important because of the Fed's employment mandate, but the one-minute stampede may spread out.

Questions for You​

• Do you trade the release or stay flat around it? If you trade it, what is your edge?
• Do you read the revisions before the headline?
• Has anyone tracked their own results on NFP days over a long enough sample to say anything meaningful?
• Do you think the unemployment rate and wages now matter more than the headline?

Curious to hear how others handle it.
Read the complete deep dive analysis at: https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/daily-blog/nfp-effect-on-markets-half-baked-fully-priced/

 

[CapitalStreet]

Payrolls Showdown: Gold Cracks, Copper Breaks Down, WTI Reverses From 92.53 and Gas Squeezes Through $3 as a 70% Fed Hike Bet Rides on 13:30 GMT​

​

With about three hours and twenty minutes to US payrolls, commodities have split in two: dollar-sensitive metals are being pinned down while energy and grains trade their own wars and weather. Gold (4,069.46, −0.43%) rejected 4,107 and has slipped onto its 4,066.63 average, with Kitco spot at 4,067.80 as of 10:33 GMT inside a 4,035.50 to 4,107.90 day range. Copper (6.3337) has broken under its channel floor as LME copper hit its lowest since July. Silver (52.032, +0.51%) is clinging to a bounce. Natural gas (3.001, +1.83%) has squeezed back through 3.00 after a 77 Bcf injection missed the 81 Bcf forecast. WTI (89.76, −1.57%) has reversed from a 92.53 high as Hormuz tanker attacks collide with Iran's proposal via Qatar. Wheat (604.6, −1.12%) is the most oversold of the six at RSI 24.02. Everything resolves at 13:30 GMT, and the stakes are one number. A December Fed hike is priced at roughly 66% to 70%, the dollar index sits near 101.76, and Fed officials such as Logan are still arguing for more tightening. Payrolls are forecast at +59K to +65K against 29K (TD Securities: 40K) with unemployment at 4.2%, after jobless claims fell to 189K. A beat re-arms the hike bet and drags gold toward 4,000, silver toward 50 and copper toward 6.20; a miss lets metals snap back, with 4,146 in gold and 6.55 in copper in range. Gas will follow the weather and WTI will follow Iran headlines, so both can ignore the print. Desk plan: sell bounces in gold, copper and WTI; buy dips in silver, natural gas and wheat. Payrolls are not yet out, and every level here is conditional on that candle.

Market at a Glance​

Prices as of about 10:10 GMT on 6 November 2026, read from daily charts captured at about 10:07 to 10:11 GMT: TVC for gold, silver and WTI, Capital.com for copper, NYMEX for natural gas and a SelfInvest CFD for wheat (US cents per bushel; the chart contract trades above December CBOT, which settled at 5.99¼ on Thursday). A live Investing.com tick could not be pulled in this session, and the Investing.com page that was retrieved returned stale quotes, so charts were cross-checked against Kitco (gold 4,071.50 at 09:41 GMT and 4,067.80 at 10:33 GMT, day range 4,035.50 to 4,107.90) and CNBC and Reuters reports (WTI 91.69 and Brent 99.90 at 05:06 GMT, Thursday's WTI settle 90.52); check the live quote before trading. Percentage changes are the daily-candle change against the previous close, and the daily candle closes at 22:00 GMT today.

Instrument	Price	Change	Note
Gold (XAUUSD)	4,069.46	−17.69 (−0.43%)	Previous close 4,087.15 — day range 4,035.92 to 4,107.00 — sits on the 4,066.63 average after rejecting 4,107, RSI 48.22
Copper (XCUUSD)	6.3337	+0.0475 (+0.76%)	Previous close 6.2862 — day range 6.2627 to 6.3632 — slips under the channel floor, RSI 36.92
Silver (XAGUSD)	52.032	+0.2624 (+0.51%)	Previous close 51.7696 — day range 51.199 to 52.210 — bounce from the channel floor stalls near 52 with lower highs, RSI 38.55
Natural gas (NG1)	3.001	+0.054 (+1.83%)	Previous close 2.947 — day range 2.932 to 3.040 — reclaims 3.00 after a bearish storage miss, RSI 52.66
Crude oil (WTI)	89.76	−1.43 (−1.57%)	Previous close 91.19 — day range 89.07 to 92.53 — fades from 92.53 and stays under the broken triangle, RSI 40.38
Wheat (WH)	604.6	−6.9 (−1.12%)	Previous close 611.5 — day range 602.7 to 614.3 — presses the channel floor near 605, RSI 24.02 the most oversold of the six

What Is Driving the Session​

US payrolls land at 13:30 GMT with forecasts of +56K to +65K against 29K, and TD Securities at 40K, as Fed hawks keep the hike bet alive (High impact — event risk)​

October payrolls are forecast at +65K on most calendars (+56K on ActionForex) with unemployment at 4.2%. Thursday's jobless claims fell to 189K against 196K expected and ADP showed 86K. A December Fed hike is priced near 66% to 70%, down from 82% on Wednesday, so a beat re-prices yields and the dollar for every metal. Source: FXStreet, ActionForex, Reuters, 6 November 2026.

Dollar index firms to about 101.76 on safe-haven demand after the AI-led equity rout, while lower Treasury yields cap gains (High impact — dollar)​

The Nasdaq 100 fell about 5.9% on Thursday and the 10-year yield eased to roughly 4.83%. DXY support sits at 101.285 to 101.232 and resistance at 101.75. The dollar leg decides the direction of gold, silver and copper into 13:30 GMT. Source: Reuters, FXStreet, ActionForex, 6 November 2026.

Tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz lift Brent toward $100 early, but WTI has since faded on the CFD (High impact — crude oil)​

Iran reported three more tanker attacks on Thursday and shipping attacks run at a near-record rate. Iran sent a nuclear proposal to Washington through Qatar, to be discussed only after seven demands are met. Later quotes show Brent back near 98.4 and WTI futures near 90.4. Rapidan Energy puts 80% odds on renewed fighting; Eurasia Group sees $110 to $125 Brent on escalation. Source: CNBC, Reuters, OilPrice, 6 November 2026.

Gold retreats from a multi-day high near 4,146 and sits at 4,069 before payrolls (Medium impact — gold)​

Gold rallied on Thursday as the dollar and yields fell after the Democratic midterm win, then pulled back as yields stabilised, with Kitco spot at 4,067.80 at 10:33 GMT after a dip toward 4,050 in early European trade; Fibonacci support sits at 4,039 to 4,006. Fed's Logan has argued for more hikes. TD Securities expects a subdued +40K print; a soft number could revive 4,146, while a beat keeps the 4,000 floor in focus. Source: FXStreet, Tradingpedia, FXEmpire, Kitco, 6 November 2026.

LME copper falls to its lowest since July as the Democratic sweep threatens AI and tariff trades (Medium impact — copper)​

LME three-month copper was near $13,660 to $13,760 a tonne in Asia. The US price premium disappeared on Thursday and COMEX stocks hit a record 731,428 tonnes, yet Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks are at a near three-year low and the Yangshan premium is a record $210. Source: Reuters, Marketindex, SMM, 6 November 2026.

Silver eases from 53.48 after a 5.18% jump on Wednesday (Medium impact — silver)​

The metal touched its highest since 29 October on Thursday, then slipped as yields rebounded. FXStreet notes lower highs keep the bounce inside the falling channel. Source: FXStreet, FXEmpire, 6 November 2026.

EIA storage build of 77 Bcf misses the 81 Bcf forecast, but record warmth keeps heating demand weak (Medium impact — natural gas)​

Stocks reached 3,801 Bcf, 54 Bcf above the five-year average. Futures have still reclaimed 3.00 on the miss, though mild forecasts and record production near 112 Bcf/d limit upside. Source: Investing.com, NGI, FXEmpire, 5–6 November 2026.

CBOT wheat holds near multi-month lows as Russian export supply outweighs strong US sales (Medium impact — wheat)​

December SRW wheat settled at 5.99¼ on Thursday (+0.12%) after US export sales of 538K tonnes. Managed money has been leaving commodities, and the wheat CFD's RSI is 24.02. Source: Ukragroconsult, Business Recorder, 6 November 2026.

Trade Setups​

All levels are conditional technical references for educational discussion only and do not constitute personal investment advice. Setups are listed in the order gold, copper, silver, natural gas, crude oil and wheat and are valid until 21:00 GMT today. A 4-hour close beyond the stop cancels the idea, and each is cancelled if unfilled by 21:00 GMT. Reward:risk is the distance from entry to each target divided by the distance from entry to the stop; three targets are shown for each instrument. Every entry sits away from the current price and needs a pullback or a bounce to trigger, and the 13:30 GMT payrolls can gap prices through them. Three ideas are long and three are short, but gold, silver and copper all react to the same dollar move, so a hot print would hit the silver long while helping the gold and copper shorts, and a soft print would do the opposite. The "Exit if" lines are the source's own cancel conditions. All times are GMT.

Gold (XAUUSD) — 4,069.46 (−0.43%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower on bounces while 4,175 caps (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 4,130
• Stop: 4,175
• Target: 4,070, then 4,036, then 4,000
• Reward:risk: 1.3 / 2.1 / 2.9

Thesis
Price is on the 4,066.63 average and well under the 4,198.39 and 4,200.77 averages, in the long downtrend from the March peak above 5,400, and it is 3.1% under those two averages; early-November lows are the base of the current bounce. RSI at 48.22 is above its 39.73 average: momentum is recovering but still below 50. A close under 4,036 targets 4,000; a close above 4,146 would clear Thursday's high and open the 4,198 averages. Gold faded from a 4,107 high, a December Fed hike is still priced at roughly 66% to 70%, and US payrolls at 13:30 GMT driving Treasury yields and the dollar are the main catalyst, so a payrolls beat is the main threat to the 4,000 floor. Support sits at 4,036 and 4,000, resistance at 4,107 and 4,146.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 4,175, or payrolls miss sharply and yields drop.
• The trade is unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.

Copper (XCUUSD) — 6.3337 (+0.76%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower on bounces while 6.50 caps (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 6.42
• Stop: 6.50
• Target: 6.30, then 6.22, then 6.10
• Reward:risk: 1.5 / 2.5 / 4.0

Thesis
Price is under the floor of the falling channel from the late-September high near 6.95, and under the 6.5525, 6.6024 and 6.6460 averages, so the broken channel floor near 6.40 is the first resistance. RSI at 36.92 is under its 45.45 average: weak but not oversold. A close under 6.26 targets 6.20; a close above 6.55 would end the lower-high sequence. COMEX copper has dipped below its falling channel and is bouncing from 6.2627, while LME copper hit its lowest since July as the Democratic sweep cut odds of aggressive US tariffs and clouded AI-infrastructure demand. Equity-led risk sentiment and the fading US tariff premium are the main catalysts, with COMEX stocks at a record 731,428 tonnes, though tight Chinese stocks limit the downside. Support sits at 6.26 and 6.20, resistance at 6.42 and 6.55.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 6.50, or payrolls miss and the dollar sells off with equities rebounding.
• The trade is unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.

Silver (XAGUSD) — 52.032 (+0.51%)​

Stance: Buy dips — higher on dips toward the channel floor (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 50.80
• Stop: 49.20
• Target: 52.90, then 54.54, then 56.00
• Reward:risk: 1.3 / 2.3 / 3.3

Thesis
Price is in the lower half of the falling channel from the late-August high near 70, bouncing off the channel floor, and under the 54.54, 60.00 and 60.75 averages, with the 54.54 average the first resistance. RSI at 38.55 is above its 33.73 average: oversold momentum is turning up. A close above 53.48 targets 54.54; a close under 51.20 puts the 48.50 channel floor back in play. Silver jumped 5.18% on Wednesday and hit 53.48 on Thursday, its highest since 29 October, before easing; lower highs and the 54.54 average keep it a counter-trend bounce. US yields and payrolls at 13:30 GMT are the main catalyst, with gold setting the tone. Support sits at 51.20 and 48.50, resistance at 53.48 and 54.54.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close under 49.20, or payrolls beat and gold loses 4,000.
• The trade is unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.

Natural Gas (NG1) — 3.001 (+1.83%)​

Stance: Buy dips — higher on dips to the 2.95 averages (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 2.96
• Stop: 2.88
• Target: 3.04, then 3.20, then 3.33
• Reward:risk: 1.0 / 3.0 / 4.6

Thesis
Price fell out of the rising channel in late October to a low near 2.50 and has recovered to the converged 2.949, 2.953 and 2.976 averages, above which it now trades; the October highs near 3.30 are the larger ceiling. RSI at 52.66 is above its 44.07 average: the first reading above 50 since the late-October low. A close above 3.04 targets 3.20; a close under 2.95 puts 2.86 in play. Thursday's EIA injection of 77 Bcf missed the 81 Bcf forecast, but record warmth and a 54 Bcf surplus to the five-year average cap rallies near 3.20, with mild weather forecasts and 112 Bcf/d production the main catalyst. Support sits at 2.95 and 2.86, resistance at 3.04 and 3.20.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close under 2.88, or updated weather models turn warmer.
• The trade is unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.

Crude Oil (WTI) — 89.76 (−1.57%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower on bounces while 95.20 caps, but headline risk is two-way (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 92.60
• Stop: 95.20
• Target: 89.00, then 87.04, then 84.50
• Reward:risk: 1.4 / 2.1 / 3.1

Thesis
Price has broken below the rising lower line of the symmetrical triangle from the March high near 120 and is retesting it from below. It is under the 97.38 and 95.04 averages and above the 87.04 average. RSI at 40.38 is under its 55.54 average: momentum turned down. A close under 89.07 targets 87.04; a close above 95.04 would put the triangle line back in play. Early gains on three more Hormuz tanker attacks (Brent near 99.90 at 05:06 GMT) have reversed on the CFD, and Iran's nuclear proposal via Qatar keeps diplomacy open; Rapidan sees 80% odds of renewed fighting, and Eurasia Group flags $110 to $125 Brent on a full escalation. Hormuz shipping attacks versus any US response to Iran's proposal, plus the 13:30 GMT dollar reaction, are the main catalysts. Support sits at 89.07 and 87.04, resistance at 92.53 and 95.04.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 95.20, or US strikes on Iran resume and Hormuz flows are hit.
• The trade is unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.

Wheat (WH) — 604.6 (−1.12%)​

Stance: Buy dips — higher on a dip to the channel floor (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 597
• Stop: 586
• Target: 614, then 625, then 638
• Reward:risk: 1.5 / 2.5 / 3.7

Thesis
Price is on the lower line of the falling channel from the early-September high near 795, under the 638.2, 672.4 and 689.6 averages. RSI at 24.02 is under its 26.30 average: deeply oversold but not yet turning, and the most oversold of the six. A close under 595 would extend the channel decline; a close above 614 targets 625 and the 638.2 average. Wheat fell from a September high near 795, but Russian export supply against supportive US export sales of 538K tonnes, and managed-money selling in commodities, keep the trend lower. The chart contract trades above December CBOT, which settled at 5.99¼ on Thursday. Support sits at 595 and 603, resistance at 614 and 638.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close under 586, or the channel floor breaks with RSI still under 30.
• The trade is unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.

What to Watch — Rest of Today​

All times are GMT. Payrolls are not yet out as of this snapshot.

Time	Event	Note
Fri 6 Nov, 13:30 GMT	US payrolls and Canada jobs	Payrolls +56K to +65K, unemployment 4.2%. Moves the dollar, yields, gold, silver and copper in one candle
Fri 6 Nov, 15:00 GMT	Michigan sentiment (preliminary)	Inflation expectations feed the December Fed hike pricing near 66% to 70%
Fri 6 Nov, 18:00 GMT	Baker Hughes rig count	Oil and gas rig counts; a late read on US supply while WTI sits under 90
Fri 6 Nov, 19:30 GMT	US futures settlements	NYMEX crude and natural gas settle at 19:30 GMT; CBOT wheat settles about 19:15 GMT, so late flows decide the daily close
Fri 6 Nov, 21:00 and 22:00 GMT	Setup expiry and daily close	Unfilled ideas lapse at 21:00 GMT; daily candles close at 22:00 GMT

Analyst View — Rest of Session​

Friday's commodities session is split in two: dollar-sensitive metals are being pinned down while energy and grains trade their own wars and weather. With payrolls at 13:30 GMT and a December Fed hike priced near 66% to 70%, CSFX prefers selling bounces in copper near 6.42 and crude oil near 92.60 (medium conviction) and gold near 4,130 (low), and buying dips in silver near 50.80, natural gas near 2.96 and wheat near 597 (all low conviction).
The 13:30 GMT payrolls, the 15:00 GMT Michigan survey and Iran and Hormuz headlines are the swing factors for the rest of today. In a strong jobs print scenario, payrolls above 65K with firm wages would restore December Fed hike pricing, lift DXY through 101.75 and push gold, silver and copper toward their floors, while natural gas stays weather-led and WTI could still be lifted by Hormuz headlines: gold at 4,036 then 4,000, copper at 6.26 then 6.20, silver at 51.20 then 50.00, natural gas holding 2.95 with 3.04 capping (weather-led), WTI crude at 89.07 then 87.04 and wheat at 603 then 595. A miss would let metals snap back, with 4,146 in gold and 6.55 in copper in range.
A 4-hour close above 4,175 in gold or 95.20 in WTI would change the picture. Size smaller into payrolls and Canada jobs at 13:30 GMT, the Michigan survey at 15:00 GMT and Iran or Hormuz headlines for crude. Trade the levels, not the headlines.
Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/daily-commodity-report-06-nov-2026

 

[CapitalStreet]

Crypto at the Brink: $1.25B Wiped Out, Bitcoin Fights for 75,000, XRP Cracks and Solana Loses Its Trendline Before 13:30 GMT Payrolls​

Key Story​

Crypto is bleeding, and the next candle could decide whether the damage stops here or deepens. A tech-stock rout on Wall Street has erased the entire post-election rally in under 24 hours: about $1.25 billion of leveraged positions were liquidated, 89% of them longs, the total market cap is down roughly 4.9% to $2.58 trillion, and fear readings are stuck near 28 to 31. On Investing.com, Bitcoin (76,230) is down 5.4% in 24 hours, Ethereum (2,244.3) is down 7.3%, XRP (1.2161) is down 6.7%, Solana (90.04) is down 6.0% and BNB (694.25) is down 3.4%. XRP touched 1.1767, its lowest since August, and Solana has slipped under its rising trendline from the June lows. Buyers are defending the floors, not leading the market. Bitcoin holds the 75,000 to 75,200 zone, Ethereum is sitting on its rising trendline and BNB, helped by net inflows at Binance after the $6.3 billion breach, is the most resilient. Spot Bitcoin ETFs added $430 million of outflows on Thursday, and Democratic control of Congress has revived regulation fears. About an hour from now, US payrolls (13:30 GMT) and the Wall Street open (14:30 GMT) become the trigger. A beat with a December Fed hike priced near 66% to 70% would drive Bitcoin toward 75,200 and 73,200 and put 2,000 in Ethereum in play; a miss could squeeze oversold coins back to 77,065 and 2,332. Desk plan: sell bounces in Bitcoin, XRP and Solana; buy dips in Ethereum and BNB. Payrolls are not yet out, and every level here is conditional on that candle.

Market at a Glance​

Prices as of about 12:25 GMT on 6 November 2026, Investing.com crypto quotes (BTC/USD 76,230.0, ETH 2,244.33, XRP 1.2161, SOL 90.039, BNB/USD 694.25), cross-checked against BitcoinWisdom and Bybit, which agree within a few points; check the live Investing.com quote before trading, as feeds move continuously. The 24-hour changes are Investing.com figures. The daily-candle changes and day ranges are measured against the previous close on the chart feeds (Bitstamp for Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP, Coinbase for Solana and a Binance chart feed for BNB), from daily charts captured at 12:19 to 12:20 GMT; the daily candle closes at 00:00 GMT. All prices are in US dollars.

Instrument	Price	24h change	Daily candle	Note
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)	76,230	−5.4%	+259 (+0.34%)	Previous close 75,971 — day range 75,205 to 76,295 — defends the 75,000 floor at the lower line of a falling channel, under all three averages, RSI 38.81
Ethereum (ETHUSD)	2,244.3	−7.3%	+9.6 (+0.43%)	Previous close 2,234.7 — day range 2,210.7 to 2,246.7 — holds the rising trendline from the June low, RSI 36.53
XRP (XRPUSD)	1.2161	−6.7%	+0.0101 (+0.84%)	Previous close 1.2060 — day range 1.1767 to 1.2215 — bounces under the broken triangle floor, RSI 34.95
Solana (SOLUSD)	90.04	−6.0%	+0.84 (+0.94%)	Previous close 89.20 — day range 88.82 to 90.56 — retests the broken rising trendline from below, no indicators on the chart
BNB (BNBUSD)	694.25	−3.4%	+5.22 (+0.76%)	Previous close 689.03 — day range 685.61 to 696.71 — holds the rising triangle floor under three averages, RSI 41.36

What Is Driving the Session​

US payrolls land at 13:30 GMT with unemployment forecast at 4.2%, and crypto is trading the print after a rough Thursday (High impact — event risk)​

Payrolls are forecast near +59K to +65K against a December Fed hike priced around 66% to 70%. A beat would lift yields and the dollar, while a miss would let risk assets bounce from oversold readings. Source: FXStreet, Reuters via the desk calendar, 6 November 2026.

The Nasdaq rout triggers about $1.25 billion in liquidations, 89% of them longs, and Bitcoin gives back its post-election gains (High impact — equities)​

Bitcoin fell about 6% to near 75,650 as US tech stocks had their worst session since April 2025. The total crypto market cap is near $2.58 trillion, down about 4.9%, and the fear index is around 28 to 31. Source: Crypto Times, CryptoBriefing, CoinGecko, 6 November 2026.

Democratic control of Congress raises fears of tighter crypto and AI rules, reversing the rally it first sparked (High impact — politics)​

Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP rallied on the dollar slide after the midterms, then sold off as traders priced tougher regulation. Ethereum rallied about 10% on Wednesday and erased it in full on Thursday. Source: FXStreet, CryptoPotato, 6 November 2026.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs book $430 million of outflows, taking the month to $869.8 million (Medium impact — Bitcoin)​

Bitcoin is trading under its 200-day average near 76,497, with the 100-day at 77,778 and the 50-day at 79,837 stacked above. FXStreet lists 75,230 and 73,200 as the downside levels. Source: FXStreet, Crypto Times, 6 November 2026.

XRP falls about 8% to 1.20, its lowest since August, below its 200-day line (Medium impact — XRP)​

The 200-day line sits near 1.27, and spot XRP ETFs have had no inflows for three trading days. Futures positioning on OKX leans long, about four long accounts per short, which adds liquidation risk below 1.18. Source: Cryptoticker, FXStreet, 6 November 2026.

Solana tests a long-term rising trendline near 89.83 after losing over 6% on Thursday (Medium impact — Solana)​

FXStreet notes a break under the 87.21 horizontal support would open 70. Another source marks the 200-day line near 88.93, so the 87 to 90 zone is the decision area today. Source: FXStreet, Cryptoticker, 6 November 2026.

BNB holds near 694 as Binance recovers from the $6.3 billion breach of 29 October (Medium impact — BNB)​

About $3 billion was frozen, withdrawals resumed, Binance pledged to cover losses and the FBI linked the attack to North Korea. FXStreet reported net inflows to Binance after the incident, which has kept BNB firmer than peers. Source: FXStreet, Forklog, Gulf News, 6 November 2026.

Trade Setups​

All levels are conditional technical references for educational discussion only and do not constitute personal investment advice. Setups are listed in the order Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana and BNB and are valid until 22:00 GMT today. A 4-hour close beyond the stop cancels the idea, and each is cancelled if unfilled by 22:00 GMT. Reward:risk is the distance from entry to each target divided by the distance from entry to the stop; three targets are shown for each coin. Every entry sits away from the current price and needs a pullback or a bounce to trigger, and the 13:30 GMT payrolls can gap prices through them. Two ideas are long and three are short, but all five coins react to the same equity and dollar move, so a hot print would help the shorts and hit the longs, and a soft print would do the opposite. The "Exit if" lines are the source's own cancel conditions. All times are GMT.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) — 76,230 (−5.4% 24h)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower on bounces while 79,000 caps (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 77,200
• Stop: 79,000
• Target: 75,200, then 73,200, then 70,000
• Reward:risk: 1.1 / 2.2 / 4.0

Thesis
Price is at the lower line of the falling channel from the late-September high near 87,000 and under all three averages (77,065, 79,659 and 81,982); the 77,065 average, a former floor, is first resistance. RSI at 38.81 is under its 40.50 average: weak but not oversold. A close under 75,200 targets 73,200; a close above 79,659 would end the lower-high sequence and put 80,000 back in play. Bitcoin fell about 6% in 24 hours as the Nasdaq rout triggered roughly $1.25 billion of liquidations, 89% of them longs, and it now sits at the floor of its falling channel. US payrolls at 13:30 GMT and the 14:30 GMT Wall Street open are the main catalysts, with spot ETF outflows of $430 million on Thursday. Support sits at 75,200 and 73,200, resistance at 77,065 and 79,659.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 79,000, or payrolls miss and Nasdaq futures rebound sharply.
• The trade is unfilled by 22:00 GMT today.

Ethereum (ETHUSD) — 2,244.3 (−7.3% 24h)​

Stance: Buy dips — higher only on a dip into the rising trendline (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 2,215.0
• Stop: 2,150.0
• Target: 2,332.0, then 2,363.0, then 2,400.0
• Reward:risk: 1.8 / 2.3 / 2.8

Thesis
Price is touching the rising support line from the June low, with the 2,332.0, 2,363.3 and 2,498.7 averages above and the falling upper line from the September high near 2,800. RSI at 36.53 is under its 40.02 average: the weakest of the majors after XRP. A close under 2,200 puts 2,000 in play and then 1,800; a close above 2,363 would reclaim the averages. ETH fell about 7% on Thursday as the AI sell-off spilled into crypto and has stalled on the support line from the June low; the 2,332 and 2,363 averages cap any bounce. Equity-led risk sentiment and the 13:30 GMT dollar reaction are the main catalysts, with 2,400 the level where the post-election rally failed. Support sits at 2,200 and 2,000, resistance at 2,332 and 2,363.3.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close under 2,150, or the trendline breaks with RSI still falling.
• The trade is unfilled by 22:00 GMT today.

XRP (XRPUSD) — 1.2161 (−6.7% 24h)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower on a retest of the broken floor while 1.285 caps (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 1.2400
• Stop: 1.2850
• Target: 1.1800, then 1.1000, then 1.0400
• Reward:risk: 1.3 / 3.1 / 4.4

Thesis
Price has broken below the rising lower line of the symmetrical triangle from the August low near 0.98 and is under the 1.2840, 1.3116 and 1.3818 averages, so the broken line near 1.22 to 1.24 is first resistance. RSI at 34.95 is under its 39.67 average: the weakest of the five and near oversold. A close under 1.18 targets 1.10 and then 1.00; a close above 1.284 would put the broken triangle back in play. XRP is down about 7% in 24 hours, touched 1.1767 and slipped under the 200-day line near 1.27 before bouncing; spot XRP ETFs have drawn no inflows for three trading days, and Wall Street risk appetite is the main catalyst. Support sits at 1.1800 and 1.1000, resistance at 1.2840 and 1.3116.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 1.285, or payrolls miss and XRP reclaims the 200-day line near 1.27.
• The trade is unfilled by 22:00 GMT today.

Solana (SOLUSD) — 90.04 (−6.0% 24h)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower on bounces while 95.60 caps (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 92.40
• Stop: 95.60
• Target: 88.80, then 87.20, then 80.00
• Reward:risk: 1.1 / 1.6 / 3.9

Thesis
Price has dropped through the rising trendline from the June low and is bouncing into it from below near 91 to 92, under the falling line from the late-September high near 125, and under the broken trendline near 92. The chart carries no indicators, so levels come from price structure. A close under 87.21 targets 80.00 and then 70; a close above 98, the early-November high, would invalidate the lower-high sequence from the late-September peak. SOL lost over 6% on Thursday and has slipped under the rising trendline, now a retest from below; FXStreet flags 87.21 as the horizontal support whose loss opens 70. Broad crypto risk sentiment and the Nasdaq reaction after the 14:30 GMT open are the main catalysts. Support sits at 87.21 and 80.00, resistance at 92.00 and 98.00.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 95.60, or SOL reclaims the trendline with rising volume.
• The trade is unfilled by 22:00 GMT today.

BNB (BNBUSD) — 694.25 (−3.4% 24h)​

Stance: Buy dips — higher only from the 680 base (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 681.00
• Stop: 662.00
• Target: 705.00, then 722.00, then 746.00
• Reward:risk: 1.3 / 2.2 / 3.4

Thesis
Price is on the rising lower line of the symmetrical triangle from the June low near 535, under the falling upper line from the October 2025 high above 1,300, with the 705.31, 722.25 and 746.00 averages overhead. RSI at 41.36 is under its 43.88 average: weak but the least stretched of the five. A close under 680 puts 645 in play; a close above 722.25 would clear the averages and target 746. BNB is the most resilient of the five, down about 3.4% in 24 hours against 5% to 7% elsewhere, as Binance resumed withdrawals and recorded net inflows after the $6.3 billion breach of 29 October. Binance exchange headlines and the 13:30 GMT dollar reaction are the main catalysts; the 680 low is the level buyers defended after the breach. Support sits at 680.00 and 645.00, resistance at 705.31 and 722.25.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close under 662, or Binance security headlines worsen.
• The trade is unfilled by 22:00 GMT today.

What to Watch — Rest of Today​

All times are GMT. Payrolls are not yet out as of this snapshot.

Time	Event	Note
Fri 6 Nov, 13:30 GMT	Payrolls and Canada jobs	Unemployment 4.2%; moves the dollar, yields and risk assets in one candle
Fri 6 Nov, 14:30 GMT	Wall Street open	First read on whether the Nasdaq rout extends; crypto has tracked tech closely
Fri 6 Nov, 15:00 GMT	Michigan sentiment (preliminary)	Inflation expectations feed December Fed hike pricing near 66% to 70%
Fri 6 Nov, 22:00 GMT	Setup expiry	Unfilled ideas lapse at 22:00 GMT
Sat 7 Nov, 00:00 GMT	Daily candle close	Crypto daily candles close at 00:00 GMT, which sets today's closing level

Analyst View — Rest of Session​

Friday's crypto session is defending floors rather than leading. A tech-stock rout has erased the post-election rally, Bitcoin holds the 75,000 to 75,200 zone, Ethereum sits on its rising trendline, XRP has cracked its triangle, Solana has lost its trendline and BNB is the most resilient. With payrolls at 13:30 GMT and Wall Street opening at 14:30 GMT, CSFX prefers selling bounces in Bitcoin near 77,200 and XRP near 1.24 (medium conviction) and Solana near 92.40 (low), and buying dips in Ethereum near 2,215 and BNB near 681 (both low conviction).
The 13:30 GMT payrolls, the 14:30 GMT Wall Street open and the 15:00 GMT Michigan survey are the swing factors for the rest of today. In a strong jobs print scenario, payrolls above 65K would restore December Fed hike pricing, lift the dollar and push crypto through the floors it is sitting on, especially if the Nasdaq extends lower at 14:30 GMT, and liquidations of leveraged longs could accelerate the move: Bitcoin at 75,200 then 73,200, Ethereum at 2,200 then 2,000, XRP at 1.18 then 1.10, Solana at 87.21 then 80.00 and BNB at 680 then 645. A miss could squeeze oversold coins back to 77,065 in Bitcoin and 2,332 in Ethereum.
A 4-hour close above 79,000 in Bitcoin or under 2,150 in Ethereum would change the picture. Size smaller into payrolls, the Nasdaq open and the 15:00 GMT Michigan survey. Trade the levels, not the headlines.

---

Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/daily-crypto-report-05-nov-2026-2

 

[CapitalStreet]

Dollar Bleeds Into the London Open as Friday's Payrolls Rally Fades, USD/JPY Pins 158, and Fed Speakers Hit at 13:40 GMT​

​

The Dollar is losing its grip: all six pairs in this report are moving against it, and the index is clinging to the 102.00 line, after Friday's payrolls shock gave it its biggest one-day gain in five months. October payrolls printed 165,000 against about 62,000 expected, unemployment dropped to 4.1%, and a December Fed hike is priced near 80%, yet profit-taking and a violent risk rebound are draining the move. The Nikkei rallied about 3.3% and Taiex 5.6% in Asia after last week's AI-led rout. At 07:32 GMT, GBP/USD (1.33882, +0.34%) leads, then EUR/USD (1.11669, +0.28%) and AUD/USD (0.68856, +0.27%), while USD/CAD (1.40990, -0.22%), USD/JPY (158.074, -0.25%) and USD/CHF (0.81853, -0.18%) slip. The next six hours decide whether Friday's breakout holds or fails: Sentix is due at 09:30 GMT, Bowman at 13:40 GMT, Goolsbee at 15:00 GMT and BoE Governor Bailey at 17:30 GMT. Brent is near $98 as Trump calls new Iran strikes highly unlikely while Rubio calls the talks unproductive, so oil headlines can flip the Dollar in minutes. This is a 07:32 GMT snapshot and the London session has not yet opened.

Market at a Glance​

Chart-feed prices from the daily charts at about 07:32 GMT on 9 November 2026 (OANDA for AUD/USD and USD/CAD; FXCM for USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CHF). A live Investing.com tick could not be pulled because its quote pages returned cached snapshots, so prices were cross-checked against Reuters, Alliance News, investingLive and FXStreet; check the live quote before trading. Changes are the daily-candle change against the previous close (the candle opened at 22:00 GMT on 8 November and closes at 22:00 GMT today).

Instrument	Price	Change	Note
USD/JPY	158.074	-0.25%	Prev close 158.469 — pressed against the falling triangle line near 158.50, above the 157.932 average, RSI 51.66
AUD/USD	0.68856	+0.27%	Prev close 0.68668 — bounces from a seven-month low, under all three averages, RSI 36.30, the weakest chart
EUR/USD	1.11669	+0.28%	Prev close 1.11360 — edges up inside a falling channel, under the 1.1191 average, RSI 42.39
GBP/USD	1.33882	+0.34%	Prev close 1.33425 — rebounds from the rising line to the 1.33919 average, RSI 52.95
USD/CAD	1.40990	-0.22%	Prev close 1.41306 — holds above the broken falling line after Canada's jobs miss, RSI 53.93
USD/CHF	0.81853	-0.18%	Prev close 0.81998 — rests on the channel floor above the 0.81603 average, RSI 43.13

What Is Driving the Session​

The Dollar gives back part of Friday's payrolls rally​

US employers added 165,000 jobs in October against about 62,000 expected, unemployment fell to 4.1%, and September was revised up to 60,000. The Dollar Index was near 102.2 in early Asia, but every pair in this report is moving against the Dollar this morning as traders take profits. LSEG puts the odds of a quarter-point hike at the 8–9 December meeting near 80%.

Asia buys the dip after last week's AI-led rout​

The Nikkei rallied 3.3% to about 59,300, Taiex 5.6%, and S&P 500 futures are higher as chipmakers recovered after the worst week for Asian tech in years. Reports of an investigation into Nvidia's chief executive and Democratic wins in both chambers of Congress keep AI-buildout worries alive. The firmer risk tone lifts the Aussie and trims demand for the Yen and Franc as havens.

Iran and oil​

Trump says new strikes on Iran are highly unlikely while talks progress, but Rubio calls the talks unproductive. Brent fell to about $97.5–98.7 on the President's CNN comments and then recovered on Rubio's remarks, while Qatar says the talks are alive and Trump meets Qatar's prime minister today. WTI is near $90, and lower oil weighs on the Loonie.

The Yen and Aussie​

USD/JPY holds near 158.1–158.3 as BoJ minutes and the Summary of Opinions point to readiness to tighten if needed. Japan spent a record $50 billion in one day on 30 July, part of about $97 billion across July and August that included a joint operation with the US, so the 160 area remains the line traders watch. The Aussie bounced to about 0.6890 from its lowest since late March, with China's October producer prices up 5.7% on the year against 5.3% expected, though the RBA's 4.85% cash rate (a 6–3 vote on 3 November) has not stopped the slide.

The Loonie, Sterling, Euro and Franc​

The Loonie struggles after Canada lost 4,700 jobs (against an expected gain of about 13,600) and unemployment rose to 6.7%, which cuts the case for much further BoC tightening after the 28 October hike. The Bank of England raised rates 25 bp on 5 November with eight members in favour and one wanting 50 bp, markets price three more hikes by the end of next year, and Bailey tied future decisions to energy prices. Euro-area inflation reached 4.0% in October and ECB policymakers have kept a December hike on the table, while EUR/USD remains below its 100-day average near 1.14. USD/CHF sits on its rising-channel floor as haven demand fades.

Trade Setups​

All levels are conditional technical references for educational discussion only and do not constitute personal investment advice. Setups are valid until 21:00 GMT today and are cancelled if unfilled by then, and all times are GMT. Every entry sits away from the current price and needs a pullback or a bounce to trigger, and the Fed speakers at 13:40 and 15:00 GMT can gap prices through them. Four ideas are long and two are short, but five of the six are effectively Dollar-long (USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF long; AUD/USD and EUR/USD short), so a Dollar slide would hit most of them at once. The "Exit if" lines use each setup's own cancel condition in the source.

USD/JPY — 158.074 (-0.25%)​

Stance: Buy dips — higher on dips while 157.27 holds (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 157.70
• Stop: 157.10
• Target: 158.50, then 159.04, then 159.60
• Reward:risk: 1.3 / 2.2 / 3.2

Thesis
Price is inside the symmetrical triangle between the late-July high near 164 and the early-September low near 153, pressed against the falling upper line near 158.50 and well above the rising lower line near 157.2, above the 157.932 and 157.268 averages and under the 159.037 average. RSI at 51.66 is neutral. Friday's payrolls beat and a near-80% December hike price keep dips shallow, while Tokyo's intervention record limits chases toward 160.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close under 157.10.
• A Tokyo warning drives USD/JPY through 157.27.

AUD/USD — 0.68856 (+0.27%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 0.6985 caps (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 0.6940
• Stop: 0.6985
• Target: 0.6885, then 0.6840, then 0.6800
• Reward:risk: 1.2 / 2.2 / 3.1

Thesis
Price is in the lower half of the falling channel that began at the 0.7240 high of early September, and today's 0.68564 low sits just above the channel floor near 0.6800, under the 0.69851, 0.70280 and 0.70393 averages. RSI at 36.30 is the weakest of the six and the nearest to oversold. A close under 0.6856 targets the 0.6800 channel floor.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 0.6985.
• Dovish Fed speakers extend the risk rally.

EUR/USD — 1.11669 (+0.28%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 1.1265 caps (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 1.1210
• Stop: 1.1265
• Target: 1.1140, then 1.1100, then 1.1060
• Reward:risk: 1.3 / 2.0 / 2.7

Thesis
Price is in the lower third of the falling channel from the August high near 1.1770, just under the 1.11912 average, with the 1.13335 and 1.14113 averages overhead and the channel floor near 1.1070. RSI at 42.39 is improving but under 50. Sentix at 09:30 GMT is the first test, and a close under 1.1135 targets the channel floor.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 1.1265.
• Sentix and ECB comments drive a squeeze through 1.1250.

GBP/USD — 1.33882 (+0.34%)​

Stance: Buy dips — a bounce while 1.3315 holds (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 1.3360
• Stop: 1.3315
• Target: 1.3420, then 1.3450, then 1.3500
• Reward:risk: 1.3 / 2.0 / 3.1

Thesis
Price has pulled back from the 1.3505 high to the rising line from the October low near 1.3130 and is testing the 1.33919 average from below, above the 1.33568 and 1.33545 averages. RSI at 52.95 is flat. The BoE's 4.00% hike and pricing for three more support Sterling against a softer Dollar, and Bailey at 17:30 GMT is the session's main UK event.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close under 1.3315.
• Bailey signals a pause and Sterling sells off.

USD/CAD — 1.40990 (-0.22%)​

Stance: Buy dips — higher on dips while 1.4020 holds (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 1.4065
• Stop: 1.4020
• Target: 1.4130, then 1.4200, then 1.4250
• Reward:risk: 1.4 / 3.0 / 4.1

Thesis
Friday's large candle broke above the falling line from the 1.4290 high of mid-October and cleared the 1.40628, 1.40513 and 1.40439 averages. Today's small pullback is testing how firmly that breakout holds. RSI at 53.93 is turning up, and WTI near $90 offers the Loonie little help after Canada's jobs miss.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close under 1.4020.
• Oil rallies hard and the Loonie rebounds.

USD/CHF — 0.81853 (-0.18%)​

Stance: Buy dips — a bounce from support while 0.8120 holds (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 0.8165
• Stop: 0.8120
• Target: 0.8210, then 0.8233, then 0.8265
• Reward:risk: 1.0 / 1.5 / 2.2

Thesis
Price has fallen from the mid-October high near 0.8390 to the floor of the rising channel that began in late July and holds above the 0.81603 average through the Fed repricing, with the 0.82332 and 0.82419 averages capping any bounce. RSI at 43.13 is soft. A close under 0.8110 would break the channel floor and target 0.8080.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close under 0.8120.
• Risk sentiment turns and the Franc is bid again.

What to Watch — Today's GMT Clock​

Time	Event	Note
Mon 9 Nov, 08:00 GMT	London cash open	Sets the European tone after the Asian equity rebound
Mon 9 Nov, 09:30 GMT	Eurozone Sentix (Nov)	Forecast 2.1 against 2.7 prior, a miss tests the Euro's ECB-hike support near 1.1135
Mon 9 Nov, 13:40 GMT	Fed's Bowman speaks	Hawkish tones back the near-80% December hike price
Mon 9 Nov, 15:00 GMT	Fed's Goolsbee speaks and US wholesale inventories	Inventories forecast 0.6%
Mon 9 Nov, 16:00 GMT	NY Fed consumer inflation expectations	3.8% forecast, 3.9% prior
Mon 9 Nov, 17:30 GMT	BoE Governor Bailey speaks	Any hint on the pace after the 4.00% hike moves GBP/USD
Mon 9 Nov, 21:00 and 22:00 GMT	Setup expiry and daily close	Unfilled ideas lapse at 21:00 GMT, FX daily candles close at 22:00 GMT

Analyst View — Rest of Session​

The Dollar is easing from Friday's peak while a December Fed hike is still priced near 80%, so CSFX prefers buying dips in USD/JPY near 157.70, GBP/USD near 1.3360 and USD/CAD near 1.4065 (medium conviction) and USD/CHF near 0.8165 (low), and selling bounces in AUD/USD near 0.6940 (medium) and EUR/USD near 1.1210 (low).
If Fed speakers sound hawkish, with Bowman and Goolsbee backing a December hike after the payrolls beat, Treasury yields would rise and revive Dollar demand. USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF would extend, while AUD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD fall back toward Friday's lows: USD/JPY at 158.50 then 159.04, AUD/USD at 0.6856 then 0.6800, EUR/USD at 1.1135 then 1.1070, GBP/USD at 1.3357 then 1.3300, USD/CAD at 1.4130 then 1.4200 and USD/CHF at 0.8210 then 0.8233.
A 4-hour close under 157.10 in USD/JPY or above 0.6985 in AUD/USD would change the picture. Size smaller into Sentix at 09:30 GMT, the Fed speakers at 13:40 and 15:00 GMT, Bailey at 17:30 GMT and any Iran headline that moves oil, and check the live quote before trading.
Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/daily-forex-report-09-nov-2026

Post automatically merged: Monday at 11:33

Gold Retakes $4,100 on Softer Oil, Copper and Silver Bounce, and Trump Meets Qatar's PM at 17:00 GMT​

​

Metals are catching a bid while energy and grains lag: oil's slide is easing inflation worries and the Dollar Index is down to 101.72 (-0.45%), lifting gold, silver, copper and natural gas, while WTI and wheat are lower. At the 10:04 GMT snapshot, Investing.com quotes copper at 6.3353 (+1.57%), silver at 52.615 (+1.30%), natural gas at 3.027 (+0.97%) and gold at 4,108.01 (+0.81%), against WTI at 90.34 (-0.54%) and December wheat near 590.50 (-0.13%). The US 10-year yield is near 4.86%, Asia's tech rebound has lifted risk appetite even as Nvidia's CEO probe keeps AI-linked stocks jumpy, and a December Fed hike is still priced near 80% after Friday's 165,000 payrolls. The rest of today decides whether the metals bounce holds: Bowman speaks at 13:40 GMT and Goolsbee at 15:00 GMT, and Trump meets Qatar's prime minister at 17:00 GMT on a new Iran ceasefire. Trump calls fresh strikes highly unlikely while Rubio calls the talks unproductive, so oil can flip in minutes. This is a 10:04 GMT snapshot and the US session has not yet opened.

Market at a Glance​

Headline prices are Investing.com quotes (futures for gold, silver, copper, natural gas and WTI; the December US Wheat contract in cents per bushel). Investing.com's pages were retrieved in cached form, so they can trail the live tick by minutes. Chart feeds differ from the quotes: gold futures run about 9 dollars above the TVC spot chart (4,099.01), the Capital.com copper chart prints about 0.076 above (6.41165), and the March wheat CFD chart (601.5) sits about 11 cents above the December contract, so copper and wheat levels below are shifted to the Investing.com basis. Changes are against the previous settlement.

Instrument	Price	Change	Note
Gold	4,108.01	+0.81%	Prev close 4,074.90 — breaks out of its falling channel, above the 4,063 average, under the 4,191 and 4,199 averages, RSI 50.60
Copper	6.3353	+1.57%	Prev close 6.2375 — bounces off the channel floor under all three averages (6.48, 6.51, 6.56), RSI 41.59
Silver	52.615	+1.30%	Prev close 51.942 — rebound stalls under the 54.15 average, gold/silver ratio 78.05, RSI 40.81
Natural gas	3.027	+0.97%	Prev close 2.998 — reclaims all three averages (2.946–2.978), RSI 53.61
WTI crude	90.34	-0.54%	Prev close 90.83 — under the broken trendline and the 95.19 average, Brent 97.38, RSI 41.14
Wheat (Dec)	590.50	-0.13%	Prev close 591.25 — deeply oversold near the channel floor, RSI 23.16

What Is Driving the Session​

Gold retakes 4,100 as lower oil eases inflation worries​

Spot gold rose as much as 1.4% to 4,123.46 by 04:28 GMT as softer crude cooled inflation fears and the Dollar slipped. US payrolls of 165,000 and unemployment at 4.1% lifted the December hike odds to about 81% from 71%, so KCM Trade's Tim Waterer says hot inflation data would put gold back on the defensive. Silver climbed to about 52.60 as the gold/silver ratio eased to 78.05, though it is still about 26% down on the year, so rallies have met resistance near 54.

Iran and oil​

Crude dipped at the open on Trump's CNN comments that new strikes are "highly unlikely," then recovered after Rubio said Iran's demands were unacceptable. WTI has held 89.80 to 91.42 and Brent 96.57 to 98.43, after Iran said five tankers caught fire near Hormuz and a drone attack halted Iraq's Khor Mor gas field. Qatar says talks are still alive, and Trump meets Qatar's prime minister at 17:00 GMT.

The Dollar slips and risk appetite returns​

The Nikkei and Taiex rebounded sharply after the recent AI-led selloff, while Nvidia fell in Frankfurt after its board opened an investigation into CEO Jensen Huang. Bowman (13:40 GMT) and Goolsbee (15:00 GMT) are the next tests for the Dollar and yields.

Copper tightness and natural gas support​

LME copper closed at 13,755.50 (-0.13%) overnight while COMEX copper is up about 1.6% today. China's October producer prices rose 5.7%, the fastest since June 2022, and Shanghai stocks sit near record lows, but high premiums are cutting downstream buying and the Shanghai spot premium eased 240 yuan to 2,100–2,650. Natural gas rises as Commodity Weather Group sees cooler central and eastern US weather through 20 November and record 21.4 bcf/d of LNG feedgas (BNEF) offsets light demand today. Because of Veterans Day, the EIA storage report has moved to Friday 13 November, with an injection of 45–55 Bcf expected against a five-year average near 60–62 Bcf.

Wheat hovers near its lowest since mid-February​

December Chicago wheat settled Friday at 591.25 after dipping to 585.00, with RSI near 22 and European cash prices at multi-month lows on Black Sea peace hopes. The USDA WASDE is due tomorrow at 17:00 GMT and the Russia–Ukraine–US talks start in Abu Dhabi on 10–11 November, so a fund short squeeze is possible if they stall.

Trade Setups​

All levels are conditional technical references for educational discussion only and do not constitute personal investment advice. Setups are valid until 21:00 GMT today and are cancelled if unfilled by then, and all times are GMT. Every entry sits away from the current price and needs a pullback or a bounce to trigger, and the Fed speakers and the 17:00 GMT Qatar meeting can gap prices through them. Five ideas are long and one is short, and gold, silver and copper all lean on a softer Dollar, so a hawkish Goolsbee at 15:00 GMT would hit three at once. The "Exit if" lines use each setup's own cancel condition in the source.

Gold — 4,108.01 (+0.81%)​

Stance: Buy dips — higher while 4,063 holds (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 4,075
• Stop: 4,038
• Target: 4,134, then 4,148, then 4,191
• Reward:risk: 1.6 / 2.0 / 3.1

Thesis
Price has pushed out of the top of the falling channel that began at the 4,690 high of late August and sits on the 4,063.02 average, with the 4,191.30 and 4,199.23 averages overhead. Today's range is 4,054.49 to 4,134.18 on the spot chart. RSI at 50.60 has turned up from oversold. A close above 4,134 targets 4,148 (the 5 November high) and 4,191.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close under 4,038.
• Goolsbee's tone lifts yields and the Dollar through Friday's highs.

Copper — 6.3353 (+1.57%)​

Stance: Buy dips — higher on dips, but low conviction while under all three averages (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 6.26
• Stop: 6.17
• Target: 6.40, then 6.48, then 6.56
• Reward:risk: 1.6 / 2.4 / 3.3

Thesis
Price is back at the floor of the falling channel that began at the 6.95 high of late September, under the 6.48, 6.51 and 6.56 averages (Investing.com basis). RSI at 41.59 is a bounce without confirmation. China's physical market stays tight, with import premiums at records, and copper is trading as an AI-capex proxy, so Nasdaq swings matter. A close under 6.20 breaks the channel floor and targets 6.00.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close under 6.17.
• Nasdaq slides again and drags the AI-capex trade lower.

Silver — 52.615 (+1.30%)​

Stance: Buy dips — higher on dips, low conviction (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 51.80
• Stop: 50.90
• Target: 53.46, then 54.15, then 54.80
• Reward:risk: 1.8 / 2.6 / 3.3

Thesis
Price is rebounding from the floor of the falling channel that began at the 70 area of late August; today's range is 51.41 to 53.46, and the 54.15 average caps, with the 59.73 and 60.60 averages far overhead. RSI at 40.81 is lifting off oversold. A close under 51.40 would send price back toward the 48.90 channel floor.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close under 50.90.
• Gold loses 4,063.

Natural Gas — 3.027 (+0.97%)​

Stance: Buy dips — higher while 2.95 holds (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 2.980
• Stop: 2.910
• Target: 3.092, then 3.124, then 3.241
• Reward:risk: 1.6 / 2.1 / 3.7

Thesis
Price has climbed back above the 2.978, 2.948 and 2.946 averages and tests the underside of the rising channel it broke on 22 October, with the 2.50 low and 3.09 two-week high framing the recent range. RSI at 53.61 has flipped positive. Colder forecasts and record LNG feedgas support it, though a developing Super El Niño caps deferred contracts and NatGasWeather still sees light demand today.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close under 2.91.
• Forecast models turn warmer.

WTI Crude Oil — 90.34 (-0.54%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 93.00 caps, but a binary event (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 92.00
• Stop: 93.30
• Target: 90.20, then 89.30, then 87.20
• Reward:risk: 1.4 / 2.1 / 3.7

Thesis
Price fell out of the rising trendline from the July low on 2 November and is retesting it from below, with the 95.19 and 97.27 averages overhead and the 87.20 average the first floor. RSI at 41.14 is soft. Conviction is low because the Qatar meeting is binary, and ship attacks near Hormuz and the halt at Iraq's Khor Mor gas field limit the downside.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 93.30.
• The Qatar meeting yields a ceasefire headline that spikes risk premium back in.

Wheat (Dec) — 590.50 (-0.13%)​

Stance: Buy dips — a small oversold bounce while 585 holds (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 586.00
• Stop: 580.00
• Target: 595.50, then 600.00, then 609.00
• Reward:risk: 1.6 / 2.3 / 3.8

Thesis
Price is in the lower half of the falling channel that began at the early-September peak near 790, under all three averages (623, 661, 675 on the December basis). RSI at 23.16 is the most oversold reading in this report, and funds are heavily short. Conviction is low because the trend is still down and the Abu Dhabi talks are keeping the war premium out. A close under 585 targets the 564 channel floor.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close under 580.
• Abu Dhabi headlines point to a Black Sea reopening.

What to Watch — Today's GMT Clock​

Time	Event	Note
Mon 9 Nov, 13:20 GMT	COMEX and NYMEX pit open	Floor liquidity returns, the US session usually sets the day's range
Mon 9 Nov, 13:40 GMT	Fed's Bowman speaks	A dovish voter, reacts to payrolls
Mon 9 Nov, 15:00 GMT	Fed's Goolsbee speaks and US wholesale inventories	Goolsbee is a hawkish non-voter, hawkish tones hit gold, silver and copper, inventories forecast 0.6%
Mon 9 Nov, 16:00 GMT	NY Fed consumer inflation expectations	3.8% forecast, 3.9% prior
Mon 9 Nov, 17:00 GMT	Trump meets Qatar's prime minister	A breakthrough sinks WTI toward 87.20, a stall squeezes it back toward 93.00
Mon 9 Nov, 19:20 GMT	CBOT grains close	Last chance for wheat position-squaring before tomorrow's 17:00 GMT WASDE
Mon 9 Nov, 21:00 and 22:00 GMT	Setup expiry and daily close	Unfilled ideas lapse at 21:00 GMT
Tue 10 Nov, 17:00 GMT	USDA WASDE	Abu Dhabi Russia–Ukraine–US talks run 10–11 November
Fri 13 Nov	EIA natural gas storage	Moved from Thursday for Veterans Day, injection 45–55 Bcf expected

Analyst View — Rest of Session​

Oil's slide and a softer Dollar are lifting metals while a December Fed hike is still priced near 80%, so CSFX prefers buying dips in gold near 4,075 (medium conviction), natural gas near 2.980 (medium), and copper near 6.26, silver near 51.80 and wheat near 586 (low), and selling a bounce in WTI near 92.00 (low).
If Fed speakers sound hawkish or the Qatar talks stall, yields and oil rise and metals give back the bounce. Goolsbee backing a December hike, or a failed Qatar meeting that lifts Brent, would firm the Dollar and yields: gold at 4,063 then 4,000, copper at 6.20 then 6.00, silver at 51.40 then 50.00, natural gas at 3.092 then 3.124, WTI at 91.42 then 93.00 and wheat at 585.00 then 564.00.
A 4-hour close under 4,038 in gold or above 93.30 in WTI would change the picture. Size smaller into the Fed speakers at 13:40 and 15:00 GMT, Trump's meeting with Qatar's PM at 17:00 GMT and the CBOT close at 19:20 GMT, and check the live quote before trading.
Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/daily-commodity-report-09-nov-2026

 

[CapitalStreet]

Bitcoin Slips to $74,400 After $1 Billion of Liquidations, Ethereum and XRP Have Broken Triangle Support, and Fed Speakers Start at 13:40 GMT​

​

Crypto is under pressure after a fifth straight losing week: Bitcoin touched a two-month low near 73,650, Ethereum has fallen about 5.7% and XRP about 7% in 24 hours, and Litecoin is the only one of the five in the green. At the 12:14 GMT snapshot, the chart feeds show Bitcoin at 74,396 (-0.46% on the day), Ethereum at 2,113.5 (-0.46%), Solana at 86.31 (-0.16%), XRP at 1.08488 (-2.45%) and Litecoin at 50.89 (+1.62%). More than $1 billion of leveraged positions were liquidated in 24 hours, $913 million of them longs, US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $1.28 billion last week, and total market value has fallen by about $80 billion to roughly $2.47 trillion, with the Fear and Greed Index at 29. The rest of today decides whether 73,500 holds: Bowman speaks at 13:40 GMT, US equities open at 14:30 GMT, Goolsbee follows at 15:00 GMT and Trump meets Qatar's prime minister at 17:00 GMT. October payrolls of 165,000, against 65,000 expected, have kept a December Fed hike priced near 80%, and tomorrow's 13:30 GMT CPI means traders may cut risk before the evening. All five charts have broken or are pressing trendline support, so the desk plan is to sell bounces into resistance. This is a 12:14 GMT snapshot and the US session has not yet opened.

Market at a Glance​

Chart-feed quotes captured at 12:14–12:15 GMT on 9 November 2026 (Bitstamp for Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP and Litecoin; Coinbase for Solana). Investing.com's crypto pages were only retrievable in cached form, so they could not confirm a live tick; cross-checks from crypto.news, CoinGecko and AD HOC NEWS sit within about 0.5% of these quotes. Daily changes on the charts are against the 00:00 GMT open, and the 24-hour changes quoted in the text are larger. Levels are in US dollars.

Instrument	Price	Change	Note
Bitcoin	$74,396	-0.46%	Prev close 74,742 — presses the floor of its falling channel under the 74,854 daily pivot, 24h -2.32%
Ether	$2,113.5	-0.46%	Prev close 2,123.2 — under the broken rising trendline, 24h -5.72%
Solana	$86.31	-0.16%	Prev close 86.45 — under the broken trendline near 92, 24h -3.71%
XRP	$1.08488	-2.45%	Prev close 1.11217 — leaves its symmetrical triangle, the weakest major, 24h -6.96%
Litecoin	$50.89	+1.62%	Prev close 50.08 — bounces inside a broken triangle, the only one of the five in the green

What Is Driving the Session​

Bitcoin hits a two-month low as more than $1 billion is liquidated​

Bitcoin dipped to about 73,500–73,700 early in the session before recovering above 75,000 and fading again, and it now trades below Strategy's average purchase cost. CoinGlass data shows $913 million of longs wiped out, led by $448 million in Ethereum and $272 million in Bitcoin. The 200-day average near 73,170 is the next line below.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs bled $1.28 billion last week​

It was the largest outflow in four months: funds shed about $412 million on Friday and $430 million on 5 November, so institutional demand has not returned after the midterm bounce to 81,000. Flow data for today is usually published after the US close.

Macro: payrolls beat, Fed speakers due, and Nvidia's CEO probe keeps tech jumpy​

US payrolls rose 165,000 against 65,000 expected, with unemployment at 4.1%, so a December Fed hike stays priced near 80%. Nasdaq rose 1.1% on Friday, but Nvidia's board opened an investigation into reports that Jensen Huang was targeted by a foreign intelligence operation.

Ether weak as Glamsterdam slips, altcoins lag​

Ether fell about 5.7% and touched 2,060, and compatibility risks found in the Glamsterdam upgrade have delayed the Hoodi testnet fork, which removes a near-term catalyst. XRP slid under 1.10 and Solana dropped to 86 as altcoins underperformed, with Solana validators also facing the Agave 4.4.1 upgrade. Litecoin is the exception at +1.6%, but no Litecoin-specific news was found today.

Regulation headlines are mixed, not a broad tightening​

Senator Blumenthal has pressed Binance, Tether and World Liberty Financial for records by 4 January 2027, and FinCEN's 6 November order bars US institutions from certain MEXC transfers. Elsewhere, Coinbase won a full US national trust bank charter with restrictions, and the SEC sent its crypto broker-dealer rules to the White House.

Trade Setups​

All levels are conditional technical references for educational discussion only and do not constitute personal investment advice. Setups are valid until 21:00 GMT today and are cancelled if unfilled by then, and all times are GMT. Every entry sits above the current price and needs a bounce to trigger, and the Fed speakers can gap prices through them. All five ideas are short and crypto moves together, so a squeeze through Bitcoin's 76,000 would hit every one at once. The "Exit if" lines use each setup's own cancel condition in the source.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) — $74,396 (-0.46%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 76,000 caps, but already on the channel floor (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 75,600
• Stop: 76,700
• Target: 74,000, then 73,500, then 71,800
• Reward:risk: 1.5 / 1.9 / 3.5

Thesis
Price sits inside the falling channel that began at the September high near 87,500 and presses the lower boundary just under today's 73,650 low, with the upper boundary near 81,000. It is below the daily pivot (74,854) and the hourly 20, 50 and 200 EMAs (75,044, 75,552 and 76,987). Conviction is low because price is already on the channel floor, and Fear and Greed at 29 means a short squeeze is possible. A close under 73,500 breaks the channel floor and puts 71,800 in play.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 76,700.
• Bowman's tone sparks an equity rally that lifts crypto through the hourly 200 EMA.

Ether (ETH/USD) — $2,113.5 (-0.46%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 2,230 caps (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 2,190
• Stop: 2,265
• Target: 2,060, then 2,000, then 1,930
• Reward:risk: 1.7 / 2.5 / 3.5

Thesis
Price has broken below the rising trendline from the late-June low near 1,510 and trades under it, with the failed bounce toward 2,440 earlier this month marking the rebound high and the falling upper line near 2,560. Ether led the liquidation tally at $448 million and touched 2,060. A close above 2,150 targets 2,230 (a retest of the broken line), while a close under 2,060 opens 2,000 and the 1,930 shelf.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 2,265.
• Ether reclaims the broken trendline on rising volume.

Solana (SOL/USD) — $86.31 (-0.16%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 92 caps (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 90.50
• Stop: 93.80
• Target: 85.00, then 82.00, then 80.50
• Reward:risk: 1.7 / 2.6 / 3.0

Thesis
Price has broken below the rising trendline from the early-June low near 66 and sits under the falling line from the September high near 125, just above today's 85.04 low. Solana has fallen about 3.7% in 24 hours. A close above 88.40 targets 92.00, while a close under 85.00 opens 80.50 and the 74.50 shelf from August.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 93.80.
• Bitcoin reclaims 76,000.

XRP (XRP/USD) — $1.08488 (-2.45%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 1.22 caps (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 1.1300
• Stop: 1.1750
• Target: 1.0600, then 1.0300, then 1.0000
• Reward:risk: 1.6 / 2.2 / 2.9

Thesis
The August–October triangle gave way in the first week of November and price slid under 1.10. It has broken the lower line of the symmetrical triangle that began at the August spike high near 1.70 and the August low near 0.98, and the broken floor near 1.22 is now resistance. XRP is the weakest of the five, down about 7% in 24 hours. A close under 1.0750 opens 1.03 and the 0.97 low from August.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 1.1750.
• XRP reclaims the 1.14 shelf.

Litecoin (LTC/USD) — $50.89 (+1.62%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 54.50 caps (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 52.80
• Stop: 54.40
• Target: 50.00, then 49.00, then 47.50
• Reward:risk: 1.8 / 2.4 / 3.3

Thesis
Price has broken the lower line of the triangle that began at the late-September high near 79 and the August low near 43, and the broken floor near 54 now caps. Litecoin is up 1.6% on the day, the only one of the five in the green, but it is rebounding inside a broken triangle. No Litecoin-specific catalyst was found today, so it trades with the market. A close under 49.80 opens 48.00 and the 45 shelf.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 54.40.
• Bitcoin squeezes through 76,000.

What to Watch — Rest of Today​

Time	Event	Note
Mon 9 Nov, 13:40 GMT	Fed's Bowman speaks	First Fed voice after payrolls, a dovish tone lifts crypto, a hawkish one tests 73,500
Mon 9 Nov, 14:30 GMT	US equity open	Nasdaq and Nvidia headlines set risk appetite, crypto has lagged Friday's tech rebound
Mon 9 Nov, 15:00 GMT	Fed's Goolsbee speaks	Backing a December hike would hit all five charts
Mon 9 Nov, 17:00 GMT	Trump meets Qatar's PM	Iran ceasefire talks, oil and Dollar swings spill into risk assets
Mon 9 Nov, 21:00 GMT	Setup expiry	ETF flow data usually follows the US close
Tue 10 Nov, 00:00 GMT	Daily candle close	Ahead of CPI at 13:30 GMT tomorrow

Analyst View — Rest of Session​

A $1 billion liquidation flush, ETF outflows and a hawkish Fed backdrop have left crypto heavy, so CSFX prefers selling bounces in Ether near 2,190, Solana near 90.50 and XRP near 1.1300 (medium conviction), and in Bitcoin near 75,600 and Litecoin near 52.80 (low). Any squeeze is a chance to fade, not chase.
If Goolsbee backs a December hike or Nasdaq rolls over, crypto extends the flush. A hawkish tone, a weak equity open or a failed Qatar meeting would firm yields and the Dollar, and Bitcoin would lose 73,500 with the others following and long liquidations feeding the move: Bitcoin at 73,500 then 71,800, Ether at 2,060 then 2,000, Solana at 85.00 then 80.50, XRP at 1.0750 then 1.0300 and Litecoin at 49.80 then 48.00.
A 4-hour close above 76,700 in Bitcoin would change the picture. Size smaller into Bowman at 13:40 GMT, the 14:30 GMT equity open, Goolsbee at 15:00 GMT and the 17:00 GMT Qatar meeting, and check the live Investing.com quote before trading.
Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/daily-crypto-report-09-nov-2026

 

[CapitalStreet]

Bitcoin Slips to $74,400 After $1 Billion of Liquidations, Ethereum and XRP Have Broken Triangle Support, and Fed Speakers Start at 13:40 GMT​

View attachment 40984​

Crypto is under pressure after a fifth straight losing week: Bitcoin touched a two-month low near 73,650, Ethereum has fallen about 5.7% and XRP about 7% in 24 hours, and Litecoin is the only one of the five in the green. At the 12:14 GMT snapshot, the chart feeds show Bitcoin at 74,396 (-0.46% on the day), Ethereum at 2,113.5 (-0.46%), Solana at 86.31 (-0.16%), XRP at 1.08488 (-2.45%) and Litecoin at 50.89 (+1.62%). More than $1 billion of leveraged positions were liquidated in 24 hours, $913 million of them longs, US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $1.28 billion last week, and total market value has fallen by about $80 billion to roughly $2.47 trillion, with the Fear and Greed Index at 29. The rest of today decides whether 73,500 holds: Bowman speaks at 13:40 GMT, US equities open at 14:30 GMT, Goolsbee follows at 15:00 GMT and Trump meets Qatar's prime minister at 17:00 GMT. October payrolls of 165,000, against 65,000 expected, have kept a December Fed hike priced near 80%, and tomorrow's 13:30 GMT CPI means traders may cut risk before the evening. All five charts have broken or are pressing trendline support, so the desk plan is to sell bounces into resistance. This is a 12:14 GMT snapshot and the US session has not yet opened.

Market at a Glance​

Chart-feed quotes captured at 12:14–12:15 GMT on 9 November 2026 (Bitstamp for Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP and Litecoin; Coinbase for Solana). Investing.com's crypto pages were only retrievable in cached form, so they could not confirm a live tick; cross-checks from crypto.news, CoinGecko and AD HOC NEWS sit within about 0.5% of these quotes. Daily changes on the charts are against the 00:00 GMT open, and the 24-hour changes quoted in the text are larger. Levels are in US dollars.

Instrument	Price	Change	Note
Bitcoin	$74,396	-0.46%	Prev close 74,742 — presses the floor of its falling channel under the 74,854 daily pivot, 24h -2.32%
Ether	$2,113.5	-0.46%	Prev close 2,123.2 — under the broken rising trendline, 24h -5.72%
Solana	$86.31	-0.16%	Prev close 86.45 — under the broken trendline near 92, 24h -3.71%
XRP	$1.08488	-2.45%	Prev close 1.11217 — leaves its symmetrical triangle, the weakest major, 24h -6.96%
Litecoin	$50.89	+1.62%	Prev close 50.08 — bounces inside a broken triangle, the only one of the five in the green

What Is Driving the Session​

Bitcoin hits a two-month low as more than $1 billion is liquidated​

Bitcoin dipped to about 73,500–73,700 early in the session before recovering above 75,000 and fading again, and it now trades below Strategy's average purchase cost. CoinGlass data shows $913 million of longs wiped out, led by $448 million in Ethereum and $272 million in Bitcoin. The 200-day average near 73,170 is the next line below.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs bled $1.28 billion last week​

It was the largest outflow in four months: funds shed about $412 million on Friday and $430 million on 5 November, so institutional demand has not returned after the midterm bounce to 81,000. Flow data for today is usually published after the US close.

Macro: payrolls beat, Fed speakers due, and Nvidia's CEO probe keeps tech jumpy​

US payrolls rose 165,000 against 65,000 expected, with unemployment at 4.1%, so a December Fed hike stays priced near 80%. Nasdaq rose 1.1% on Friday, but Nvidia's board opened an investigation into reports that Jensen Huang was targeted by a foreign intelligence operation.

Ether weak as Glamsterdam slips, altcoins lag​

Ether fell about 5.7% and touched 2,060, and compatibility risks found in the Glamsterdam upgrade have delayed the Hoodi testnet fork, which removes a near-term catalyst. XRP slid under 1.10 and Solana dropped to 86 as altcoins underperformed, with Solana validators also facing the Agave 4.4.1 upgrade. Litecoin is the exception at +1.6%, but no Litecoin-specific news was found today.

Regulation headlines are mixed, not a broad tightening​

Senator Blumenthal has pressed Binance, Tether and World Liberty Financial for records by 4 January 2027, and FinCEN's 6 November order bars US institutions from certain MEXC transfers. Elsewhere, Coinbase won a full US national trust bank charter with restrictions, and the SEC sent its crypto broker-dealer rules to the White House.

Trade Setups​

All levels are conditional technical references for educational discussion only and do not constitute personal investment advice. Setups are valid until 21:00 GMT today and are cancelled if unfilled by then, and all times are GMT. Every entry sits above the current price and needs a bounce to trigger, and the Fed speakers can gap prices through them. All five ideas are short and crypto moves together, so a squeeze through Bitcoin's 76,000 would hit every one at once. The "Exit if" lines use each setup's own cancel condition in the source.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) — $74,396 (-0.46%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 76,000 caps, but already on the channel floor (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 75,600
• Stop: 76,700
• Target: 74,000, then 73,500, then 71,800
• Reward:risk: 1.5 / 1.9 / 3.5

Thesis
Price sits inside the falling channel that began at the September high near 87,500 and presses the lower boundary just under today's 73,650 low, with the upper boundary near 81,000. It is below the daily pivot (74,854) and the hourly 20, 50 and 200 EMAs (75,044, 75,552 and 76,987). Conviction is low because price is already on the channel floor, and Fear and Greed at 29 means a short squeeze is possible. A close under 73,500 breaks the channel floor and puts 71,800 in play.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 76,700.
• Bowman's tone sparks an equity rally that lifts crypto through the hourly 200 EMA.

Ether (ETH/USD) — $2,113.5 (-0.46%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 2,230 caps (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 2,190
• Stop: 2,265
• Target: 2,060, then 2,000, then 1,930
• Reward:risk: 1.7 / 2.5 / 3.5

Thesis
Price has broken below the rising trendline from the late-June low near 1,510 and trades under it, with the failed bounce toward 2,440 earlier this month marking the rebound high and the falling upper line near 2,560. Ether led the liquidation tally at $448 million and touched 2,060. A close above 2,150 targets 2,230 (a retest of the broken line), while a close under 2,060 opens 2,000 and the 1,930 shelf.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 2,265.
• Ether reclaims the broken trendline on rising volume.

Solana (SOL/USD) — $86.31 (-0.16%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 92 caps (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 90.50
• Stop: 93.80
• Target: 85.00, then 82.00, then 80.50
• Reward:risk: 1.7 / 2.6 / 3.0

Thesis
Price has broken below the rising trendline from the early-June low near 66 and sits under the falling line from the September high near 125, just above today's 85.04 low. Solana has fallen about 3.7% in 24 hours. A close above 88.40 targets 92.00, while a close under 85.00 opens 80.50 and the 74.50 shelf from August.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 93.80.
• Bitcoin reclaims 76,000.

XRP (XRP/USD) — $1.08488 (-2.45%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 1.22 caps (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 1.1300
• Stop: 1.1750
• Target: 1.0600, then 1.0300, then 1.0000
• Reward:risk: 1.6 / 2.2 / 2.9

Thesis
The August–October triangle gave way in the first week of November and price slid under 1.10. It has broken the lower line of the symmetrical triangle that began at the August spike high near 1.70 and the August low near 0.98, and the broken floor near 1.22 is now resistance. XRP is the weakest of the five, down about 7% in 24 hours. A close under 1.0750 opens 1.03 and the 0.97 low from August.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 1.1750.
• XRP reclaims the 1.14 shelf.

Litecoin (LTC/USD) — $50.89 (+1.62%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 54.50 caps (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 52.80
• Stop: 54.40
• Target: 50.00, then 49.00, then 47.50
• Reward:risk: 1.8 / 2.4 / 3.3

Thesis
Price has broken the lower line of the triangle that began at the late-September high near 79 and the August low near 43, and the broken floor near 54 now caps. Litecoin is up 1.6% on the day, the only one of the five in the green, but it is rebounding inside a broken triangle. No Litecoin-specific catalyst was found today, so it trades with the market. A close under 49.80 opens 48.00 and the 45 shelf.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 54.40.
• Bitcoin squeezes through 76,000.

What to Watch — Rest of Today​

Time	Event	Note
Mon 9 Nov, 13:40 GMT	Fed's Bowman speaks	First Fed voice after payrolls, a dovish tone lifts crypto, a hawkish one tests 73,500
Mon 9 Nov, 14:30 GMT	US equity open	Nasdaq and Nvidia headlines set risk appetite, crypto has lagged Friday's tech rebound
Mon 9 Nov, 15:00 GMT	Fed's Goolsbee speaks	Backing a December hike would hit all five charts
Mon 9 Nov, 17:00 GMT	Trump meets Qatar's PM	Iran ceasefire talks, oil and Dollar swings spill into risk assets
Mon 9 Nov, 21:00 GMT	Setup expiry	ETF flow data usually follows the US close
Tue 10 Nov, 00:00 GMT	Daily candle close	Ahead of CPI at 13:30 GMT tomorrow

Analyst View — Rest of Session​

A $1 billion liquidation flush, ETF outflows and a hawkish Fed backdrop have left crypto heavy, so CSFX prefers selling bounces in Ether near 2,190, Solana near 90.50 and XRP near 1.1300 (medium conviction), and in Bitcoin near 75,600 and Litecoin near 52.80 (low). Any squeeze is a chance to fade, not chase.
If Goolsbee backs a December hike or Nasdaq rolls over, crypto extends the flush. A hawkish tone, a weak equity open or a failed Qatar meeting would firm yields and the Dollar, and Bitcoin would lose 73,500 with the others following and long liquidations feeding the move: Bitcoin at 73,500 then 71,800, Ether at 2,060 then 2,000, Solana at 85.00 then 80.50, XRP at 1.0750 then 1.0300 and Litecoin at 49.80 then 48.00.
A 4-hour close above 76,700 in Bitcoin would change the picture. Size smaller into Bowman at 13:40 GMT, the 14:30 GMT equity open, Goolsbee at 15:00 GMT and the 17:00 GMT Qatar meeting, and check the live Investing.com quote before trading.
Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/daily-crypto-report-09-nov-2026

 

[CapitalStreet]

S&P 500 Rally Extends Toward 7,520 as Oil Slides, but Nvidia Is Down 6% and the Fed Hike Bet Is 82%​

​

Wall Street has turned the bounce into a rally, but not yet a recovery: the S&P 500 is up 1.93% at 7,519.20 at about 16:30 GMT, Thursday's 4.4% plunge is only partly repaired, Nvidia is down about 6%, and traders price an 82% chance of a December Fed hike. The Dow is up 1.80% at 52,207 and the Nasdaq 100 about 3% near 27,820, lifted by a 5% drop in Brent to about $93 on Iran peace hopes and a rebound in chipmakers (AMD +11%). Europe is also higher into the 16:30 GMT close (FTSE 100 +0.76% at 10,754.92, DAX +1.35% near 26,169). Nvidia's board is still investigating CEO Jensen Huang after he admitted an affair with a woman US intelligence suspects of spying for China; shares fell as much as 8% and are about 6% lower. The VIX has dropped to about 21.2 and the 10-year yield sits near 4.85% after Friday's 165,000 payrolls. Barkin, Bailey, the 3-year auction and Tuesday's CPI decide whether the rally holds. Goolsbee (15:00 GMT) said the Fed must come to terms with its failure on inflation and that services inflation is rising, which supports the hike bet, yet stocks kept climbing. Barkin speaks at 17:15 GMT, Bailey at 17:25 GMT and the Treasury sells $58 billion of 3-year notes at 18:00 GMT. October CPI at 13:30 GMT on Tuesday (+0.3% m/m forecast, core +0.2%) is the bigger test of the hike bet. The S&P 500 is about 194 points above its 200-day average near 7,325 and has cleared 7,444; the Nasdaq 100 is still about 164 points under its own near 27,984. Desk plan: the S&P 500 long needs a pullback to 7,400 and has not triggered; the Nasdaq 100 short triggered at 27,650 and is now about 170 points against the desk ahead of the 28,050 stop. RSI readings below are from the 13:30 GMT chart captures and have not been recalculated.

Market at a Glance​

Prices as of about 16:20 to 16:30 GMT on 9 November 2026, an update of the 13:30 GMT edition. Live levels are intraday readings from Yahoo Finance (S&P 500 7,519.20, Dow 52,207, Nasdaq Composite about 25,116, FTSE 100 10,754.92), 24/7 Wall St (Nasdaq 100 about 27,820, which is approximate and should be checked against a live quote), JournalArta (DAX 26,168.94, Brent $93.44) and Reuters, CNBC and FXStreet (Fed odds, yields and Goolsbee's remarks); they can differ by a few points from the charting feed. The Hang Seng 24,448.95 is the Hang Seng Indexes close at 08:08 GMT. European cash closes at 16:30 GMT were not yet published, so the FTSE 100 and DAX figures are the latest available before the close. The chart images are the 13:30 GMT TradingView captures and have not been redrawn, so RSI figures and moving averages are as of that capture. All prices are index points.

Instrument	Price	Change	Note
S&P 500 (SPX)	7,519.20	+142.34 (+1.93%)	At about 16:30 GMT, cash index — previous close 7,376.86 — clears 7,444 and the 200-day near 7,325 but is still under three averages (7,618.70 to 7,679.45); Dow 52,207 (+1.80%), VIX about 21.2
Nasdaq 100 (NDX)	about 27,820	about +3.0%	At about 16:30 GMT, cash index, approximate — Friday close 26,989.99 — through 27,316 and about 164 points under its 200-day near 27,984; Nasdaq Composite about 25,116 (+2.2%), Nvidia about −6%
FTSE 100 (UKX)	10,754.92	+80.98 (+0.76%)	At about 16:20 GMT — previous close 10,673.94 — day range 10,654.32 to 10,768.95 — holds the rising trendline and three averages as the triangle tightens under 10,900
DAX 40 (DAX)	26,168.94	+348.58 (+1.35%)	Latest before the 16:30 GMT Xetra close — previous close 25,820.36 — day low 25,793.06 — reclaims 26,000 after retesting the broken channel
Hang Seng (HSI)	24,448.95	−32.91 (−0.13%)	08:08 GMT close — previous close 24,481.86 — day range 24,421.11 to 24,738.88 — stalls at the top of the falling channel after a five-week high, RSI 57.44

What Is Driving the Session​

The S&P 500 is up 1.9% and the Dow 1.8% as stocks win back part of last week's AI rout, and the VIX has fallen to about 21 (High impact — rally)​

Thursday's 4.4% S&P 500 fall and 5.5% Nasdaq plunge are being partly retraced. At about 16:30 GMT the S&P 500 is up 142 points at 7,519.20, the Dow up 921 points at 52,207 and the Nasdaq Composite up about 2.2% near 25,116, on top of Friday's closes of 7,376.86, 51,285.73 and 24,579. Brokerages including Morgan Stanley and UBS called the AI selloff overdone, arguing that extreme data-centre regulation under a Democrat-controlled Congress is unlikely. The Nasdaq 100 is still down about 13% over the past month after a fourth straight weekly fall. Source: Yahoo Finance, Reuters via Detroit News, 24/7 Wall St, The Private Banker, 9 November 2026.

Nvidia's board probe of CEO Jensen Huang keeps the stock about 6% lower even as the rest of the chip sector rallies (High impact — Nvidia)​

Nvidia fell as much as 8% and is about 6% lower near $176 from Friday's $186.64 after Huang admitted the affair and the board opened an independent investigation. The board says it has no reason to believe national security or company secrets were compromised, Huang stays CEO, President Trump has backed him and China called the spying allegations baseless; the espionage link is unproven and the probe is open. The market is rotating inside the AI trade rather than leaving it: AMD is up about 11% and Broadcom is higher. Source: Yahoo Finance, Reuters, 24/7 Wall St, Bank of Vol, 9 November 2026.

December Fed hike odds have risen to about 82% after Goolsbee's hawkish remarks, and October CPI is due Tuesday at 13:30 GMT (High impact — Fed and CPI)​

Payrolls of 165,000 and unemployment at 4.1% lifted CME FedWatch odds of a 25bp hike on 9 December (from 3.75% to 4.00%) to about 82%, up from 76% on Friday. Chicago Fed's Goolsbee, a non-voter, said the Fed has to come to terms with its inflation-side failure and that services inflation has started rising, and added that the data-centre investment boom looks like overheating. The 10-year yield is near 4.85% and the 2-year near 4.53%. CPI is forecast at +0.3% m/m with core at +0.2%, and Barkin (17:15 GMT) speaks next. Source: FXStreet, CNBC, Seeking Alpha, TLT News, 9 November 2026.

The DAX and FTSE 100 extend their rebound after Friday's falls of 1.9% and 1.0%, led by chipmakers, banks and miners (Medium impact — Europe)​

European shares firmed through the day as US futures and oil moved the right way. Into the 16:30 GMT close the DAX is up about 1.35% near 26,169, the FTSE 100 up 0.76% at 10,754.92 and the STOXX 600 up about 0.9% near 654. Frankfurt-listed Nvidia shares fell about 6%, but Infineon rose more than 6% and Italian banks rallied on merger news. The STOXX 600 is still ahead of the S&P 500 this year, with eurozone GDP and ECB speakers due this week. Source: Investing.com, Yahoo Finance, CNN Markets, JournalArta, 9 November 2026.

The Bank of England's unanimous hike to 4.00% leaves a December move near even odds, with Bailey speaking at 17:25 GMT (Medium impact — Bank of England)​

All nine MPC members voted to raise on 5 November, one of them for 50bp, and the Bank sees inflation near 5% by mid-2027. UK Q3 GDP follows on Thursday at 07:00 GMT. Pantheon calls the hike more hawkish than expected, and sterling has climbed 0.4% to about 1.3410 as the dollar weakens. Source: FXStreet, Pound Sterling Live, Yahoo Finance, 9 November 2026.

The Hang Seng closed 0.13% lower at 24,448.95 as Huatai warned the rally is largely played out; it reopens at 01:15 GMT Tuesday (Medium impact — Hong Kong)​

The index opened higher and faded, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises index −0.17% to 8,260.15 and the Tech index −0.92% to 4,040.73 on HK$173.7 billion of turnover. Last week it jumped 3.7% on Thursday to 24,797 and fell 1.27% on Friday. Huatai advises against chasing high-beta stocks ahead of a December peak in lock-up expiries. Wall Street's rally since the close raises the odds of a firmer open. Source: Futu News, Hang Seng Indexes, Yahoo Finance, Trading Economics, 9 November 2026.

Brent has fallen about 5% to roughly $93 on Iran peace hopes while gold has risen to about $4,130 (Medium impact — oil and gold)​

Brent fell 4.96% to $93.44 and WTI 4.6% to $86.65 as hopes for a diplomatic end to the Iran war grew, with President Trump due to meet Qatar's prime minister at the White House on Monday. Lower crude eases inflation worries and has supported airlines, cyclicals and the broad rally, while gold is up about 1.3% and the dollar is weaker. Treasury yields face resistance near 4.90%. Source: JournalArta, Benzinga, CNBC, FXStreet, 9 November 2026.

Trade Setups​

All levels are conditional technical references for educational discussion only and do not constitute personal investment advice. Setups are listed in the order S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Hang Seng and are valid until 21:00 GMT today (the Hang Seng idea until the Hong Kong close at 08:00 GMT on Tuesday 10 November). A 4-hour close beyond the stop cancels the idea, and each is cancelled if unfilled by the end of its window. Reward:risk is the distance from entry to each target divided by the distance from entry to the stop; three targets are shown for each index. Entries, stops and targets are unchanged from the 13:30 GMT edition; only the status of each idea and the commentary were updated at about 16:30 GMT. Since the US open the S&P 500 has not come back to its 7,400 entry, so that long is not filled and chasing it at 7,519 would leave about 99 points to the second target against 201 points to the stop. The Nasdaq 100 short filled at 27,650 and the index is about 170 points higher, with the stop 230 points away. The FTSE 100, DAX and Hang Seng ideas still need a pullback to trigger, and Barkin, Bailey, the auction and Tuesday's CPI can gap prices through them. Four ideas are long and one is short, and the long US and European ideas share one risk: a sharp Nasdaq reversal would hit them together, while the short is hurt if the rally keeps going. The "Exit if" lines are the source's own cancel conditions. All times are GMT.

S&P 500 (SPX) — 7,519.20 (+1.93%)​

Stance: Buy dips — higher on dips, but the entry has moved away (low conviction). Status at 16:30 GMT: not triggered, price 7,519, needs a pullback to 7,400
Levels

• Entry: Buy 7,400
• Stop: 7,318
• Target: 7,520, then 7,618, then 7,680
• Reward:risk: 1.5 / 2.7 / 3.4

Thesis
At the 13:30 GMT chart capture (last candle Friday 6 November; not redrawn since), price had fallen out of the rising channel that began in late July and sat about 52 points above the 200-day average near 7,325. The three averages sit overhead at 7,618.70, 7,657.80 and 7,679.45, and live price has since moved up through 7,444; Friday's range was 7,369.55 to 7,444.20. RSI was 35.11 under its 44.99 average at that capture and has not been recalculated, so the rally will have lifted it. A close above 7,520 targets the 7,618 average; a close under 7,444 puts 7,354 and then the 200-day average at 7,325 back in play, and a break of that opens 7,200. The S&P 500 gapped up at the 14:30 GMT open and has climbed about 1.9% as oil slides and chipmakers rebound, clearing the 7,444 cap and sitting on the first target at 7,520. An 82% December hike bet and Tuesday's CPI at 13:30 GMT are the next tests; Barkin at 17:15 GMT and the 18:00 GMT 3-year auction come first. Support sits at 7,444 and 7,354, resistance at 7,520 and 7,618.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close under 7,318, or hike odds rise above 85% (about 82% now).
• The trade is unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) — about 27,820 (about +3.0%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower on rallies only while price stays under 28,050, and the idea is now live and under pressure (low conviction). Status at 16:30 GMT: triggered, price about 170 points through the entry and about 230 points under the stop
Levels

• Entry: Sell 27,650
• Stop: 28,050
• Target: 27,200, then 26,888, then 26,630
• Reward:risk: 1.1 / 1.9 / 2.5

Thesis
At the 13:30 GMT chart capture (last candle Friday 6 November; not redrawn since), price had broken below the rising channel that began in late July and was far under the 29,090.95, 29,453.84 and 29,632.70 averages; Friday's range was 26,887.69 to 27,316.09, and Thursday's close was 26,629.81. Price (about 27,820) is above Friday's 27,316 high and under all three averages and the 200-day average near 27,984. RSI was 31.39 under its 38.69 average at that capture and has not been recalculated; the index is no longer as oversold. The 28,000 to 28,050 zone is the 200-day average and the short's stop: a close above 28,050 invalidates the weak view and opens the 29,091 average, while a move back under 27,316 puts 26,888 in play. Chipmakers outside Nvidia (AMD +11%, Broadcom higher) and falling oil have lifted the index about 3%, carrying it through 27,316 and the 27,650 entry, even with Nvidia down about 6% on the board's probe of CEO Jensen Huang. The index is still down about 13% over the past month. Nvidia headlines, Tuesday's CPI (13:30 GMT) and CoreWeave's results after the close on Tuesday are the main catalysts, with Cisco and Applied Materials on Thursday. Support sits at 27,316 and 26,888, resistance at 28,000 and 29,091.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 28,050, or Tuesday's CPI undershoots and yields drop sharply.

FTSE 100 (UKX) — 10,754.92 (+0.76%)​

Stance: Buy dips — higher on dips while 10,692 holds (medium conviction). Status at 16:30 GMT: not triggered, price 10,755, entry 10,700
Levels

• Entry: Buy 10,700
• Stop: 10,628
• Target: 10,810, then 10,880, then 10,950
• Reward:risk: 1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5

Thesis
At the 13:30 GMT chart capture, price was squeezing inside a triangle between the falling top line near 10,880 and the rising line that began at the March low, and it is trading on the 10,740.18, 10,692.17 and 10,691.77 averages; the 5 November spike to about 10,950 was rejected. Price is just above all three averages. RSI was 52.49 over its 52.24 average at that capture: neutral. A close above 10,860 targets 10,950; a close under 10,640 breaks the rising trendline and puts 10,400 in view. London is up about 0.8%, led by miners as metals rise and oil falls on Iran peace hopes, after falling 1.0% on Friday, and Wall Street's rally has kept the tone firm into the close. The Bank of England's unanimous 25bp hike to 4.00% on 5 November leaves a December move near even odds. The 16:30 GMT London close, the US session, Bailey at 17:25 GMT and Thursday's UK Q3 GDP at 07:00 GMT are the main catalysts. Support sits at 10,692 and 10,640, resistance at 10,860 and 10,950.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close under 10,628, or Wall Street reverses lower.
• The trade is unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.

DAX 40 (DAX) — 26,168.94 (+1.35%)​

Stance: Buy dips — higher on dips while 25,800 holds (medium conviction). Status at 16:30 GMT: not triggered, price about 26,169, entry 25,900, with the first target only 31 points away
Levels

• Entry: Buy 25,900
• Stop: 25,740
• Target: 26,200, then 26,400, then 26,700
• Reward:risk: 1.9 / 3.1 / 5.0

Thesis
At the 13:30 GMT chart capture, price had broken out of the falling channel that began in late August and had retested it from above, holding the 25,672.20, 25,577.95 and 25,551.76 averages; Thursday's spike to about 26,700 is the swing high. Price is above all three averages and holds above 26,000, now 31 points under the 26,200 cap. RSI was 56.05 over its 55.68 average at that capture: momentum positive. A close above 26,200 targets 26,500 and then 26,700; a close under 25,800 puts the averages near 25,670 in play, and a break there reopens the channel. The DAX is rebounding after a 1.9% fall on Friday as oil slips, chipmakers recover (Infineon is up more than 6%) and Wall Street rallies; Nvidia's Frankfurt shares are about 6% lower, but the wider tech rebound has outweighed it, so the 16:30 GMT Xetra close and the next leg in US futures matter. The US session, eurozone Q3 GDP and ECB speakers this week, and Tuesday's US CPI are the main catalysts. Support sits at 25,800 and 25,670, resistance at 26,200 and 26,500.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close under 25,740, or Nasdaq futures reverse lower.
• The trade is unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.

Hang Seng (HSI) — 24,448.95 (−0.13%, 08:08 GMT close)​

Stance: Buy dips — mildly higher on dips (low conviction). Status at 16:30 GMT: not triggered, closed 24,449, reopens 01:15 GMT on Tuesday
Levels

• Entry: Buy 24,300
• Stop: 24,100
• Target: 24,589, then 24,797, then 25,150
• Reward:risk: 1.4 / 2.5 / 4.2

Thesis
Price has pushed above the top of the falling channel that began in early August and is retesting it. The 24,588.53 average caps, with the 24,388.15 and 23,744.77 averages below; the 5 November close was 24,796.98. Price is between the 24,588.53 and 24,388.15 averages and above the 23,744.77 average. RSI at 57.44 is over its 41.27 average: momentum has turned up. A close above 24,589 targets 24,797 and then 25,150; a close under 24,388 puts 24,100 in play and sends price back into the channel. The index opened higher, faded and closed at 24,448.95 on turnover of HK$173.7 billion, with the Tech index down 0.92%; Huatai Securities argues the short-term drivers of last week's rally have largely played out, and Wall Street's rally since the close (S&P 500 +1.9%) points to a firmer open toward the 24,589 average. Wall Street's close, Tuesday's CPI, China trade data on Tuesday and a peak in share lock-up expiries in December are the main catalysts. Support sits at 24,388 and 24,100, resistance at 24,589 and 24,797.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close under 24,100, or Wall Street sells off at the open.
• Valid until the Hong Kong close on Tuesday 10 November at 08:00 GMT.

What to Watch — Rest of Today and Tomorrow​

All times are GMT. The 3-year auction at 1:00 pm ET is 18:00 GMT. Bowman and the US open, and Goolsbee, have already happened.

Time	Event	Note
Mon 9 Nov, 13:40 and 14:30 GMT (done)	Bowman and the US open	Bowman spoke at 13:40 GMT (details not captured here) and Wall Street opened higher at 14:30 GMT, with the S&P 500 gaining about 1% at the bell
Mon 9 Nov, 15:00 and 16:00 GMT (done)	Goolsbee	Said the Fed must come to terms with its inflation-side failure and that services inflation is rising; hike odds rose to about 82% and stocks still climbed
Mon 9 Nov, 16:30 GMT	London and Xetra close	FTSE 100 and DAX cash sessions end; CFD prices keep trading afterwards
Mon 9 Nov, 17:15 and 17:25 GMT	Barkin and Bailey	Richmond Fed's Barkin on the outlook, then BoE Governor Bailey; either could move yields and the dollar
Mon 9 Nov, 18:00 GMT	US 3-year note auction	Treasury sells $58 billion of 3-year notes (prior 4.932%); a weak auction would push yields toward resistance near 4.90%
Mon 9 Nov, 21:00 GMT	US close and setup expiry	Unfilled ideas lapse at 21:00 GMT; Occidental reports after the close
Tue 10 Nov, 01:15 GMT	Hong Kong reopens	Wall Street's rally points to a firmer open toward the 24,589 cap
Tue 10 Nov, 13:30 GMT	US October CPI	Forecast +0.3% m/m, core +0.2%; the bigger test of the hike bet
Tue 10 Nov, after the US close	CoreWeave results	A catalyst for the Nasdaq 100
Thu 12 Nov, 07:00 GMT	UK Q3 GDP	FTSE 100 catalyst
Thu 12 Nov	Cisco and Applied Materials results	Further tech tests

Analyst View — Rest of Session​

Monday's indices session is a rally that is not yet a recovery. The rally is real, but it rests on falling oil and a chip rebound while the Fed hike bet has risen to about 82% and Tuesday's CPI is the bigger event. The S&P 500 long near 7,400 and the Hang Seng long near 24,300 (low conviction) have not triggered, and CSFX would not chase the S&P 500 at 7,519. It still prefers buying dips in the DAX near 25,900 and the FTSE 100 near 10,700 (medium conviction), both of which are within about 55 and 270 points of the entry and have not filled. The Nasdaq 100 short from 27,650 (low) has filled and is about 170 points against the desk, so the 28,050 stop is the line that matters.
Barkin at 17:15 GMT, Bailey at 17:25 GMT, the 18:00 GMT 3-year auction and Tuesday's CPI at 13:30 GMT are the swing factors. If Barkin, the auction or a fresh Nvidia headline turn hawkish, yields would rise and the rally would fade: Goolsbee has already tilted hawkish, so a weak 3-year auction, a hawkish Barkin or a fresh Nvidia headline would push the 10-year toward 4.90% and sink the Nasdaq first. The S&P 500 would give back the 7,444 breakout, and Europe and Hong Kong would follow lower: the S&P 500 would fall to 7,444 then 7,400, the Nasdaq 100 to 27,316 then 26,888, the FTSE 100 to 10,692 then 10,640, the DAX 40 to 25,800 then 25,670 and the Hang Seng to 24,388 then 24,100.
A 4-hour close under 7,318 in the S&P 500 or above 28,050 in the Nasdaq 100 would change the picture. Size smaller into Barkin at 17:15 GMT, Bailey at 17:25 GMT and the 3-year auction at 18:00 GMT. Trade the levels, not the headlines.
Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/daily-index-report-09-nov-2026

 

[CapitalStreet]

Dollar Frozen at 101.67 After Oil's Crash as Fed Hike Bets Hit 84% and US CPI Looms at 13:30 GMT: GBP/USD Holds 1.3450, USD/JPY Stalls at 158​

​

The Dollar is frozen near 101.67 into the one event that matters today, US October CPI at 13:30 GMT, with a December Fed hike priced at about 84% and Brent down more than 20% in a week. The Dollar Index fell 0.6% on Monday as oil's collapse (Brent settled nearly 6% lower at 92.57) and Trump's "highly unlikely" comment on new Iran strikes pulled money back into risk assets, and it is flat below 102.00 as the European session opens. Oil's drop sent USD/CAD out of its falling channel, while the weaker Dollar lifted the Aussie 0.88% and EUR/USD to 1.1230 off Monday's 1.1137 low, and let Sterling reclaim 1.3400. At 07:36 GMT, FXStreet showed GBP/USD near 1.3450, USD/CAD near 1.4120 and USD/JPY back at 158.00 after weak Japanese household spending. The risk is two-sided and binary: a core print of 0.3% or more would push hike odds past 85% and hit GBP/USD, AUD/USD and EUR/CHF, while a 0.2% or softer core print would hand back the Dollar's rebound. Levels come from the 05:17 GMT charts, so check the live quote before trading.

Market at a Glance​

Prices are the Investing.com quotes matched to the daily chart feeds at about 05:17 GMT on 10 November 2026 (FXCM for USD/JPY, GBP/USD and USD/CHF; OANDA for AUD/USD, EUR/CHF and USD/CAD). Investing.com's pages are served in cached form, so they can trail the live tick by minutes. Cross-checks at 07:36 GMT were within a few pips of the chart prices, and no pair price newer than 07:36 GMT could be retrieved. Previous closes are derived from price and change (USD/JPY's is the source's own).

Instrument	Price	Change	Note
USD/JPY	158.01	+0.08%	Prev close 157.89 — coils inside a triangle between 156.90 and 158.50, 159.00 average caps, RSI 51.14
AUD/USD	0.6923	-0.04%	Prev close 0.6926 — rebound stalls under the 0.6984 average in a falling channel, RSI 41.78
EUR/CHF	0.9199	+0.02%	Prev close 0.9197 — breaks its falling channel, under the 0.9223 average, RSI 42.07
GBP/USD	1.3445	+0.03%	Prev close 1.3440 — above three averages inside a tightening triangle, RSI 57.58
USD/CAD	1.4120	+0.02%	Prev close 1.4117 — above three averages after the channel breakout, RSI 56.33
USD/CHF	0.8194	-0.01%	Prev close 0.8195 — sits on the rising channel floor above the 0.8161 average, RSI 44.16

What Is Driving the Session​

The Dollar waits for US CPI​

The Dollar Index sits flat near 101.67 with a December Fed hike priced near 82–85%. The October CPI carries no official annual rate because last year's shutdown left October 2025 prices uncollected, so the market will trade the monthly numbers: consensus is +0.3% headline and +0.2% core (Danske sees 0.3%) after +0.6% and +0.3% in September, and the Cleveland Fed nowcast is 0.24% and 0.21%. The US 10-year yield is near 4.87% after payrolls of 165,000 and unemployment at 4.1%, and Fed, ECB and BoE speakers are all scheduled today.

Iran and oil​

Brent settled nearly 6% lower at 92.57 on Monday after trading at 94.99 in New York, and FXStreet has WTI below 85.50 this morning, so Brent has now fallen more than 20% in a week. Trump called new Iran strikes "highly unlikely," but reports of a revived US–Iran channel via a Qatari–Pakistani proposal are unconfirmed by major outlets, so headline risk runs both ways for USD/CAD and AUD/USD.

Sterling holds, the Yen is capped​

The Bank of England raised Bank Rate by 25 basis points on 5 November in an 8–1 vote, with one member preferring 50, but the Pound slipped after Chief Economist Pill said nothing is baked in for 2027, and ING sees Sterling expensive against the Euro (EUR/GBP near 0.834). Breeden and Pill are both scheduled to speak today. USD/JPY sits at 158 as Japan's intervention threat (it sold $97 billion of reserves through late July and August) offsets weak Japanese data and fading December BoJ hike expectations.

The Aussie, Franc and Loonie​

AUD/USD holds near 0.6923 after China's trade surplus shrank more than expected to CNY712.72 billion, and it is struggling to extend above 0.6900 as higher December Fed hike bets let the Dollar pause its decline. Swiss inflation at 1.5% revives SNB tightening doubts and puts a ceiling on EUR/CHF despite the channel breakout, with ECOFIN also weighing the ECB presidency (de Cos versus Knot). USD/CAD broke out of its falling channel on cheaper oil, and Canada's unemployment rate hit a six-month high in October.

Trade Setups​

All levels are conditional technical references for educational discussion only and do not constitute personal investment advice. Setups are valid until 21:00 GMT today and are cancelled if unfilled by then, and all times are GMT. Every entry sits away from the current price and needs a pullback or a bounce to trigger, and US CPI at 13:30 GMT can gap prices through them. Four ideas are long and two are short, but they are not independent: a hot CPI would help USD/CHF, USD/CAD and USD/JPY and hurt GBP/USD, EUR/CHF and AUD/USD, so the book is partly hedged and size should be cut before 13:30 GMT. The "Exit if" lines use each setup's own cancel condition in the source.

USD/JPY — 158.01 (+0.08%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while the 159.00 average caps (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 158.60 (triangle top retest)
• Stop: 159.10
• Target: 157.90, then 157.20, then 156.60
• Reward:risk: 1.4 / 2.8 / 4.0

Thesis
Price is squeezed inside a symmetrical triangle between the falling line from the 164 high of late July and the rising line from the early-September low near 152.7, now about 158.5 and 156.9, between the 157.91 and 159.00 averages. RSI at 51.14 is neutral. Conviction is low because CPI can break the triangle either way, and a close under 157.22 targets the rising line near 156.60.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 159.10.
• CPI lifts yields and the Dollar through Monday's highs.

AUD/USD — 0.6923 (-0.04%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while 0.7000 caps (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 0.6965 (rally toward the 20-day average)
• Stop: 0.7012
• Target: 0.6895, then 0.6850, then 0.6800
• Reward:risk: 1.5 / 2.4 / 3.5

Thesis
Price is inside the falling channel that began at the 0.7240 high of early September, bouncing from the 0.6850 low under the 0.6984, 0.7029 and 0.7036 averages, with the channel floor near 0.6800. RSI at 41.78 is weak. A close above 0.7029 would break the channel top and open 0.7100, while a close under 0.6850 targets the channel floor.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 0.7012.
• US CPI undershoots and the Dollar breaks lower.

EUR/CHF — 0.9199 (+0.02%)​

Stance: Buy dips — higher on a retest, low conviction (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 0.9160 (retest of the broken channel top)
• Stop: 0.9115
• Target: 0.9223, then 0.9315, then 0.9330
• Reward:risk: 1.4 / 3.4 / 3.8

Thesis
Price closed above the top of the falling channel that began at the 0.9490 high of 1 October, after a low near 0.9120, and is under the 0.9223, 0.9315 and 0.9330 averages. RSI at 42.07 has turned up from oversold. Crowded Dollar longs (Ebury) and EUR/USD holding 1.1230 support the cross, but ING warns of downside risk after Swiss inflation rose to 1.5%.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close under 0.9115.
• SNB speakers turn clearly hawkish.

GBP/USD — 1.3445 (+0.03%)​

Stance: Buy dips — higher while 1.3400 holds (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 1.3400 (pullback to the averages)
• Stop: 1.3345
• Target: 1.3500, then 1.3550, then 1.3600
• Reward:risk: 1.8 / 2.7 / 3.6

Thesis
Price is inside a triangle between the falling line from the 1.3675 high of late August and the rising line from the mid-October low near 1.3130, now about 1.3490 and 1.3370, above the 1.3395, 1.3367 and 1.3357 averages. RSI at 57.58 is positive. Sterling rose about 0.5% on Monday as the Dollar slid, with 1.3500 the first barrier, and a close above it targets 1.3600.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close under 1.3345.
• A hot core CPI lifts the Dollar through Monday's highs.

USD/CAD — 1.4120 (+0.02%)​

Stance: Buy dips — higher while 1.4060 holds (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 1.4070 (pullback into the averages)
• Stop: 1.4018
• Target: 1.4150, then 1.4230, then 1.4300
• Reward:risk: 1.5 / 3.1 / 4.4

Thesis
A large green candle on Monday took price out of the falling channel that began at the mid-October high near 1.43, and it sits above the 1.4059, 1.4056 and 1.4043 averages, which now act as support. RSI at 56.33 has flipped positive. Cheaper oil drags on the Canadian Dollar, and strong US payrolls with a December hike near 82–85% priced add to the Dollar bid.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close under 1.4018.
• An Iran deal sends oil sharply higher.

USD/CHF — 0.8194 (-0.01%)​

Stance: Buy dips — higher while the channel floor near 0.8150 holds (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 0.8170 (channel floor)
• Stop: 0.8128
• Target: 0.8235, then 0.8300, then 0.8395
• Reward:risk: 1.5 / 3.1 / 5.4

Thesis
Price sits on the lower line of the rising channel from the late-July low, just above the 0.8161 long average, with the 0.82349 and 0.82359 averages overhead and the channel top near the 0.8395 October high. RSI at 44.16 is soft. The Franc is firm after Swiss inflation rose to 1.5%, but a December Fed hike near 82–85% priced keeps the Dollar supported on dips.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close under 0.8128.
• A soft CPI sinks the Dollar through Monday's lows.

What to Watch — Today's GMT Clock​

Time	Event	Note
Tue 10 Nov, 09:00 GMT	Fed Governor Waller	First Fed voice before CPI, a hawkish tone backs USD/CHF and USD/CAD
Tue 10 Nov, 11:00 GMT	NFIB small business optimism	97.7 forecast, 97.9 prior, a minor mover
Tue 10 Nov, 13:30 GMT	US October CPI	Monthly only, no annual rate: consensus +0.3% headline and +0.2% core, the swing event for every pair
Tue 10 Nov, 14:35 GMT	Fed's Logan	Reaction to CPI and the December hike debate
Tue 10 Nov, through the day	Breeden and Pill (BoE) and ECOFIN	BoE speakers for GBP/USD, ECB presidency (de Cos versus Knot)
Tue 10 Nov, 21:00 and 22:00 GMT	Setup expiry and daily close	Unfilled ideas lapse at 21:00 GMT

Event times come from calendar pages and the BLS schedule and should be confirmed on the live calendar.

Analyst View — Rest of Session​

The Dollar is steady near 101.70 with a December Fed hike priced near 82–85%, so CSFX prefers buying dips in GBP/USD near 1.3400, USD/CAD near 1.4070 and USD/CHF near 0.8170 (medium conviction) and EUR/CHF near 0.9160 (low), and selling bounces in AUD/USD near 0.6965 (medium) and USD/JPY near 158.60 (low).
If core CPI prints 0.3% or higher, December hike odds rise past 85% and the Dollar firms. A hot print or hawkish Waller and Logan would lift Treasury yields: USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF would push higher (USD/JPY into the 159.00 cap and intervention risk), while GBP/USD, AUD/USD and EUR/CHF would slip: USD/JPY at 158.50 then 159.00, AUD/USD at 0.6850 then 0.6800, EUR/CHF at 0.9150 then 0.9115, GBP/USD at 1.3400 then 1.3350, USD/CAD at 1.4150 then 1.4230 and USD/CHF at 0.8235 then 0.8300. A 0.2% or softer core print would hand back the Dollar's rebound.
A 4-hour close beyond any stop cancels that idea. Cut size before 13:30 GMT, since any Iran or Qatar headline can flip oil, USD/CAD and AUD/USD in minutes, and check the live quote before trading.
Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/daily-forex-report-10-nov-2026

 

[CapitalStreet]

Oil Crashes Toward $85 as Gold Defends $4,100 Into the CPI Showdown at 13:30 GMT​

​

Oil has fallen about 20% this month and is down another 2% today, and the whole commodity complex is now waiting on one number: US October CPI at 13:30 GMT. Trump's "quite unlikely" on new Iran strikes, a Democratic midterm sweep and rising OPEC output have drained the war premium from crude, which is easing inflation fears and holding gold above 4,100 even with a December Fed hike priced near 84%. The 08:55 GMT snapshot, before CPI and the US open, shows gold at 4,117.52 (-0.54%), silver at 52.789 (-1.13%), copper near 6.33 on the Investing.com basis (-0.8%), natural gas at 3.222 (+0.12%), WTI at 84.48 (-2.19%) and December wheat near 591.50 (+0.72%). The Dollar Index is flat near 101.6, and Asian shares rebounded as oil fell. What happens next decides whether the bounce in metals survives: Waller speaks at 09:00 GMT, the COMEX and NYMEX pits open at 13:20, CPI follows at 13:30 (+0.3% headline and +0.2% core expected), and WASDE is due at 17:00 GMT just as the Russia–Ukraine–US talks in Abu Dhabi begin. This is an 08:55 GMT snapshot and the US session has not yet opened.

Market at a Glance​

Chart-feed values at 08:53 GMT on 10 November 2026: TVC for gold, silver and WTI; NYMEX for natural gas (December futures); Capital.com for copper (6.40931 on the chart, about 6.33 on the Investing.com basis); and the SelfInvest March wheat CFD (604.4 on the chart, about 591.50 on the Investing.com December basis). Investing.com's live quote pages could not be retrieved and appeared only in stale cached form, so the figures are cross-checked against Reuters rather than copied. Copper and wheat prices are estimated on the Investing.com basis. Changes are against the previous close shown on each chart (wheat's is Monday's 587.50 settle).

Instrument	Price	Change	Note
Gold	4,117.52	-0.54%	Prev close 4,140.07 — holds above 4,100 and the 4,063 average, under the 4,185 and 4,199 averages, RSI 51.73
Copper	≈6.33	-0.8%	Prev close ≈6.39 — bounce stalls under all three averages (6.48, 6.49, 6.56), RSI 42.10
Silver	52.789	-1.13%	Prev close 53.391 — stalls under the 53.87 average, gold/silver ratio about 78.0, RSI 41.97
Natural gas	3.222	+0.12%	Prev close 3.218 — short-covering rally pauses at the top of the channel, RSI 61.33
WTI crude	84.48	-2.19%	Prev close 86.37 — breaks the rising trendline and the 87.25 average, RSI 34.20
Wheat (Dec)	≈591.50	+0.72%	Prev close 587.50 — oversold near nine-month lows, RSI 26.85

What Is Driving the Session​

Gold slips toward 4,115 on profit-taking ahead of CPI​

Spot gold was down 0.6% at 4,114.48 at about 06:30 GMT after Monday's rally of more than 1%, and December futures were 0.2% higher at 4,123.50. October CPI is expected at +0.3% headline and +0.2% core on the month, with no annual rate because last year's shutdown left no October 2025 index. TradingKey said a core print near 0.1% could revive a run above 4,200, while 0.3% would firm the hike bet. Deutsche Bank expects 25 basis point hikes in December and March.

WTI drops toward 85 as Trump talks down new Iran strikes​

Brent fell 1.7% to 90.99 and WTI 1.8% to 85.20 at 07:59 GMT, extending Monday's drops of 5.85% and 4.38%. Trump called further strikes "quite unlikely" after speaking with Qatar's prime minister, though he also said the US remains ready. A Reuters survey showed OPEC output up 1.38 million barrels per day in October, and Eurasia Group's Gregory Brew doubts Brent can hold below 90 without a firmer deal.

The Dollar is flat as the Fed speakers line up​

The Dollar Index traded near 101.67 early after Monday's 0.6% drop as oil's slide and an equity rebound drew money into risk assets. Waller, Logan, Schmid and Bowman all speak today, and Danske flags the Fed speakers as the next test after CPI.

Copper tightness and a natural gas squeeze​

LME three-month copper was up 0.31% at 13,939 at 03:00 GMT. SHFE-monitored stocks are only 33,848 tons, the Yangshan premium hit a record $230, and China's October concentrate imports fell 11% from a year earlier, while Citi cut its three-month forecast to 13,300 from 14,500 on tariff and AI-demand worries. Natural gas rose as much as 8% on Monday, its biggest rally since September, as a record hedge-fund short position unwound on cooler forecasts, with record LNG feedgas of 19.3 bcfd this month, output slipped to 112.1 bcfd and storage about 2.1% above normal.

Wheat hovers near a nine-month low as WASDE and the Abu Dhabi talks land on the same day​

The most-active contract was up 0.2% at 5.89 at 05:28 GMT after dipping to 5.85 on Friday, and prices are about 25% below their early-September highs. The trade expects US wheat ending stocks of 744 million bushels in the 17:00 GMT WASDE (from 740 million), and funds hold their biggest short in nine months, so a surprise could trigger short covering.

Trade Setups​

All levels are conditional technical references for educational discussion only and do not constitute personal investment advice. Setups are valid until 21:00 GMT today and are cancelled if unfilled by then, and all times are GMT. Gold, silver, WTI and gas levels are read straight from the chart feeds, while copper levels are shifted about 0.076 lower and wheat levels about 11 lower, to the Investing.com basis. Every entry sits away from the current price and needs a pullback or a bounce to trigger, and CPI at 13:30 GMT can gap prices through them. Five ideas are long and one is short, and gold, silver and copper all lean on a softer Dollar, so a hot core CPI would hit three at once. The "Exit if" lines use each setup's own cancel condition in the source.

Gold — 4,117.52 (-0.54%)​

Stance: Buy dips — higher while 4,063 holds, but today is a CPI day (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 4,085
• Stop: 4,048
• Target: 4,147, then 4,185, then 4,199
• Reward:risk: 1.7 / 2.7 / 3.1

Thesis
Price has pushed out of the top of the falling channel that began at the 4,690 high of late August and sits above the 4,062.85 average, with the 4,185.49 and 4,198.62 averages overhead. Today's range so far is 4,108.22 to 4,146.70. RSI at 51.73 has turned up from oversold. A soft core print would revive the rebound toward 4,185, while a 0.3% core print would put 4,063 in play.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close under 4,048.
• A hot core CPI lifts yields and the Dollar through their recent highs.

Copper — ≈6.33 (-0.8%)​

Stance: Buy dips — higher on dips, but low conviction while under all three averages (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 6.25
• Stop: 6.15
• Target: 6.40, then 6.48, then 6.56
• Reward:risk: 1.5 / 2.3 / 3.1

Thesis
Price is bouncing inside the falling channel that began at the 6.95 high of late September, under the 6.48, 6.49 and 6.56 averages (Investing.com basis). RSI at 42.10 is a bounce without confirmation. China's physical market stays tight, but CPI at 13:30 GMT matters through the Dollar and yields, and copper trades as an AI-capex proxy. A close under 6.18 breaks the channel floor and targets 6.00.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close under 6.15.
• Nasdaq slides again and drags the AI-capex trade lower.

Silver — 52.789 (-1.13%)​

Stance: Buy dips — higher on dips, low conviction (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 51.80
• Stop: 50.90
• Target: 53.72, then 54.60, then 55.50
• Reward:risk: 2.1 / 3.1 / 4.1

Thesis
Price bounced from the floor of the falling channel that began at the late-August high and is stalling at the 53.87 average, with the 59.47 and 60.47 averages far overhead. RSI at 41.97 has turned up from oversold but stays weak. A soft core print would let it retest the 53.87 average, while a hot one would send it back toward 51.40.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close under 50.90.
• Gold loses 4,063.

Natural Gas — 3.222 (+0.12%)​

Stance: Buy dips — higher on dips after a big jump, low conviction (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 3.140
• Stop: 3.060
• Target: 3.267, then 3.330, then 3.400
• Reward:risk: 1.6 / 2.4 / 3.2

Thesis
Price has leapt above the 2.988, 2.953 and 2.950 averages and is testing the top of the falling channel that began in late July, near 3.28. Today's range is 3.196 to 3.267. RSI at 61.33 is firm but not stretched. Storage is about 2.1% above normal, so gains can stall near the channel top, and a close under 3.10 hands back the squeeze.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close under 3.06.
• The next forecast run turns milder.

WTI Crude Oil — 84.48 (-2.19%)​

Stance: Sell rallies — lower while under 87.25 (medium conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Sell 86.50
• Stop: 88.00
• Target: 84.00, then 82.50, then 80.00
• Reward:risk: 1.7 / 2.7 / 4.3

Thesis
Price has dropped out of the rising wedge that began at the July low and is under the 87.25 average, with the 95.07 and 96.55 averages far overhead. Today's range so far is 84.16 to 86.93. RSI at 34.20 is weak but not yet oversold. WTI fell 4.4% on Monday, and both contracts are about 20% lower this month. A close under 82.50 targets 80.00.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close above 88.00.
• Iran headlines revive the Hormuz supply risk.

Wheat (Dec) — ≈591.50 (+0.72%)​

Stance: Buy dips — a small bounce with a tight stop, low conviction (low conviction)
Levels

• Entry: Buy 585.00
• Stop: 579.00
• Target: 596.00, then 605.00, then 612.00
• Reward:risk: 1.8 / 3.3 / 4.5

Thesis
Price is near the floor of the falling channel that began at the late-August high, under all three averages (about 619, 661 and 672 on the Investing.com basis). December Chicago wheat settled at 587.50 on Monday, its lowest since mid-February. RSI at 26.85 is close to oversold, so a short-covering bounce is possible, but the trend is still down.
Exit if

• A 4-hour close under 579.
• The USDA numbers or Abu Dhabi headlines point to a Black Sea reopening.

What to Watch — Today's GMT Clock​

Time	Event	Note
Tue 10 Nov, 09:00 GMT	Fed Governor Waller speaks	Opens the Fed speaker run ahead of CPI
Tue 10 Nov, 13:20 GMT	COMEX and NYMEX pit open
Tue 10 Nov, 13:30 GMT	US October CPI	+0.3% headline and +0.2% core expected, no annual rate, the key print
Tue 10 Nov, 15:50 GMT	Fed's Logan speaks	Hawkish voter, Schmid follows at 18:30 GMT
Tue 10 Nov, 17:00 GMT	USDA WASDE and Abu Dhabi talks	US wheat stocks seen at 744 million bushels, Russia–Ukraine–US talks run through 11 November
Tue 10 Nov, 19:20 GMT	CBOT grains close
Tue 10 Nov, 20:30 GMT	Fed's Bowman speaks	Dovish voter, the last Fed speaker
Tue 10 Nov, 21:00, 21:30 and 22:00 GMT	Setup expiry, API crude inventories and daily close	Unfilled ideas lapse at 21:00 GMT

Event times follow investingLive, FXStreet and the USDA calendar.

Analyst View — Rest of Session​

Cheaper oil and a flat Dollar are keeping gold above 4,100 ahead of CPI, so CSFX prefers buying dips in gold near 4,085 (medium conviction), copper near 6.25, silver near 51.80, natural gas near 3.14 and wheat near 585 (low), and selling a bounce in WTI near 86.50 (medium).
If CPI runs hot or the Iran talks stall, yields and oil rise and metals give back the bounce. A 0.3% core print would lock in the December hike and firm the Dollar and yields, while a Hormuz setback would revive the oil premium: gold at 4,063 then 4,000, copper at 6.18 then 6.00, silver at 51.40 then 50.00, natural gas at 3.267 then 3.33, WTI at 86.90 then 88.00 and wheat at 585.00 then 570.00.
A 4-hour close under 4,048 in gold or above 88.00 in WTI would change the picture. Size smaller into CPI at 13:30 GMT, WASDE and the Abu Dhabi talks at 17:00 GMT and the CBOT close at 19:20 GMT, and check the live quote before trading.
Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/daily-commodity-report-10-nov-2026