Commodity Blog

After blasting toward the former $11,395 BitStamp all-time high on November 29, bitcoin rather abruptly and violently retracted to the $9,252.96 November 29 daily low. The markets have consolidated since then, and the price has managed to quickly recover above the previous $10,000 psychological resistance level, which is now serving as a key support. Additionally, a new all-time high was secured yesterday at $11,800.01, and we may even break ahead of that valuation, but only if the current uptrend continues with matching hourly trading volume.

Bcash was until recently, also trading within a steep descending channel, losing out to both ethereum (bch/eth) and bitcoin (bch/btc) respectively. The situation has changed quite a bit these past couple of days, with bitcoin cash slowing creeping ever closer to previous price zones. However, volume is marginally lagging so caution is advised. Bitcoin gold on the other hand has gradually climbed higher, although there have been several apparent pullbacks along the way. Likewise, the same is true for a select few alternative crypto currencies, which were hit even harder by bitcoins first eye-catching fallback. The chaos that followed the rally resulted in sudden price corrections of more than 50% in some cases.

Despite the havoc raging across the wider markets, bitcoin supports are plentiful. This is again understandable, especially when we reevaluate how far the largest crypto currency has surged in just this last week alone. Primary supports stand out at yesterday’s $10,517.38 daily low, the $9,000 weekly low, and at the $5,555.55 monthly low. Secondary supports are discernible at $11,204.35, $10,737.86, $10,619.85, $9,369.20, $9,252.96, $8,348.06, $7,998.12, $7,886.40, $7,590.09, $7,570.17, $7,499.82, $7,353.51, $6,991.37, $6,956.42, $6,776.88, $6,314.14, $6,025.93, $5,872.75, $5,754.5, $5,645.18, and at $5,591.17.

The $11,800.01 all-time high is our primary resistance level. Fibonacci extensions for the current trading range are at: $12,460.81 (fib 1.236), $12,869.61 (fib 1.382), $13,200.01 (fib 1.5), $13,530.41 (fib 1.618), $14,600.02 (fib 2.0), $15,669.62 (fib 2.382), $16,330.42 (fib 2.618), $17,400.03 (fib 3.0), and at $19,130.43 (fib 3.618). Overlaps have almost occurred with Fibonacci retracements as well, this is most noticeable with the $11,204.35 (the 0.786 fib is at $11,194.31) and $10,737.86 supports (the 0.618 fib is at $10,722.5).

Bollinger bands on the daily have considerably widened, signaling further price volatility. Nonetheless, the upper bands have been breached several times, which is often a sign of inherent bullishness. The 4-hour appears less chaotic, portraying a more stable divide between the outer bands, with price remaining close to the median line. Hourly bands are depicting a similar situation, even though the price has dipped below the median line.

The 30-day MA, 180-day MA, and 365-day MA are almost all in a perfectly parallel ascending order, with the same angle of ascent. Bearish crossovers have not occurred with either of the three, in any combination or sequence. The VWMA is rising, in line and in warm proximity to the 30-day MA. The EMA is acting accordingly, firmly following short-term price movement and momentum.

RSI is neither overbought nor oversold, although it may be setting the stage for future oversold conditions. %R Williams is in a similar situation, inconclusive for now. The MACD has been establishing bullish and bearish crossovers in a consecutive interchanging order (marked appropriately with green and red vertical bars below). Simultaneously, OBV is on a steady rise in the face of dwindling volume.

Bitcoin began trading from the $5,555.55 monthly low on November 12 (GMT 04:00), and after more than 2 weeks elapsed, we witnessed a new $11,392.31 all-time high on November 29 (GMT 14:00). The actual event resulted in a pullback to the $9,252.96 November 29 daily low (GMT 19:00), which was followed by a bounce back in price to the $10,624.60 November 30 daily high (GMT 4:00), and a consequent second reversal to $9,000 weekly low on November 30 (GMT 13:00). The subsequent 3 days were chiefly characterized by a strong bullish bias that concluded with yet another new all-time high, this time at $11,800.01 on December 3 (GMT 15:00). The price has since then oscillated between the $11,800.01 all-time high and yesterday’s $10,517.38 fundamental support.

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