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Probability Literacy Among Forex Traders — Poll

May 21, 2012 (Last updated on June 1, 2012) by

Are you a probability literate person? As a Forex trader, you should be. Understanding the probabilities is one of the most important conditions for success in Forex market and in any other financial trading field. Almost all the FX books I read mention mass misconceptions that roam the minds of beginning and even professional traders. Fooled by Randomness is a good example of a book that is dedicated entirely to the problem of “probability blindness”.

The most interesting thing about probability literacy is that you do not have to be a math guru to judge probabilities correctly. Even some professors and Ph.D.’s may misinterpret random numbers. One just has to understand how probabilities work — what they are and what they are not. It is also important to understand how they relate to the real world processes and events they describe.

Today, I offer three little polls, which are more like test questions, that will help you to assess your level of probability literacy. Actually, I expect it to be quite high among the currency traders, and especially so among my blog’s readers. But we shall see…

What would you choose?

View Results

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What would you choose?

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What trading strategy would you choose?

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When enough readers vote, I will write a follow-up blog post on the polls’ results, describing the listed answers in detail and explaining my point.

Update 2012-05-30: You can read explanation of the offered questions and answers as well as the analysis of the poll results in my follow-up post.

If you want to share your opinion or ask questions about the role of probability literacy in Forex trading, feel free to reply using the form below.

4 Responses to “Probability Literacy Among Forex Traders — Poll”

  1. Sezor

    Don’t we need more information to be able to answer – our account size, our goals ..

    Reply

    admin Reply:

    The questions are hypothetical – they are not necessarily about the Forex trading. The answer should be given with only the given conditions in mind, considering all other conditions being equal.

    Reply

  2. johnny

    Good information, thanks

    Reply

    Andriy Moraru Reply:

    You are welcome.

    Reply

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