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EUR/USD Rally Stopped by Good CPI Report

January 12, 2018 by

Having initially rallied on the Brexit deal news (event A on the chart), EUR/USD dipped on the US inflation and retail sales data, but returned to a slow uptrend afterwards. It looks like it is becoming difficult for the currency pair to continue its growth above the multi-year highs.

US CPI increased by 0.1% in December following 0.4% growth in November. The rise was the same as the forecast value. However, core CPI (excluding food and energy prices) added 0.3% — more than 0.2% expected by the markets. Faster core CPI growth would allow the Federal Reserve to conduct a tighter monetary policy. (Event B on the chart.)

Retail sales rose by 0.4% in December following 0.9% uptick in November (revised from 0.8% growth). Traders had expected a 0.5% increase. Same as with CPI, core retail sales data were a dollar-positive surprise in the report — they were up by 0.4% vs. 0.3% forecast and their November growth has been revised from 1.0% to 1.3%. (Event B on the chart.)

Business inventories rose by 0.4% in November as was widely expected by market participants. October figure was revised from 0.1% decline to 0% change. (Event C on the chart.)

EUR/USD as of 2018-01-12

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