Weekly Forex Analysis By zForex

[zForex]

In the United States, the focus will be on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where it is anticipated that borrowing costs will remain at their current levels. Market participants will pay close attention to Chair Powell's comments for hints about potential rate cuts expected throughout the year, especially given ongoing inflationary pressures. The economic calendar is also packed, with the non-farm payrolls anticipated to show a rise of 210K in April, down from 303K in March. The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 3.8%, with monthly wage growth expected at 0.3%. Other significant data includes April's ISM PMI surveys, JOLTs job openings, foreign trade, the first-quarter employment cost index, productivity reports, Case-Shiller home prices, ADP Employment Change, factory orders, and regional indexes like the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index and Chicago PMI. Additionally, the first-quarter earnings season will see updates from major corporations such as Apple, Amazon, 3M, Coca-Cola, McDonald's, Starbucks, AMD, PayPal, ADP, Estee Lauder, Mastercard, Pfizer, Amgen, Moderna, and Novo Nordisk.

In Canada, attention will be on GDP and trade data.

Europe's economic landscape will also be bustling with activity. The Eurozone is expected to report a 0.2% expansion in GDP for the first quarter after a stagnant end to 2023. Inflation is likely to stay at 2.4%, near its lowest in two years. Key releases include consumer price inflation, unemployment for March across Germany, France, Spain, and Italy, and various PMI figures. Other data to watch include the Eurozone business survey, Germany's retail sales, the UK's monetary indicators, and inflation rates from Switzerland, Turkey, and Poland.

In Asia, China's PMIs are expected to indicate a slight slowdown, which may temper optimism about the economy's momentum. Japan will release data on consumer confidence, unemployment, retail sales, industrial production, and housing starts for March, with the Bank of Japan's meeting minutes also due for release. Australia will focus on the trade balance, retail sales, housing, credit data, and the Ai Group industry gauge for April.

Overall, investors globally will have several data and earnings reports to observe, influencing market sentiments and investment decisions.

 

[zForex]

Weekly Analysis (6May – 10May)

This coming week promises to be quite interesting as we get to see how various central banks around the world, excluding the Fed, ECB, or BoJ, decide to handle their policies. Some may decide to cut rates, some may decide to hold rates while sounding patient, some may decide to hold steady and hint at possible future cuts, and there's even one facing expectations to start hiking again! While a lot of attention has been focused on the Federal Reserve lately, there's a chance that we'll see even greater differences in approach between central banks around the world. It's a bit like gambling for these banks as they navigate uncertain times, trying to decide whether to hold steady, change, or take extreme measures. The ones that make the wise choices will stand out from the ones that make the mistakes.

The global economic calendar for the week ahead isn't as busy as usual. However, there are still some important events to watch out for. In the US, crude oil inventories and the 10-Year Note auction will be closely monitored. On Thursday, weekly jobless claims data will be monitored in the US. On Friday, in the US, the preliminary May data for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to show a monthly decrease of 1 point, settling at 76.2.

Attention will turn to the health of the UK economy following the Bank of England's decision at the end of the week. In addition, inflation reports will be out from various countries, which could have an impact on regional markets.