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Daily Market Outlook by Solid Trust Markets
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[QUOTE="SolidTrustMarket, post: 97511, member: 36800"] [b]Daily Market Outlook 23 Feb[/b] [img]https://scontent-lhr3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xtl1/v/t1.0-9/12717510_174118869626335_4845820293159483711_n.jpg?oh=2a23c6b13a613b005f9fef79fea074e7&oe=576A6387[/img] Oil markets jumped as much as 7% on Monday as speculation about falling U.S. shale output fed the notion that crude prices may be bottoming after their 20-month collapse. But they retreated on Tuesday on concern that any cuts to U.S. production may be countered by rising output from Iran. Short-covering in oil began last week after Saudi Arabia and fellow OPEC members Qatar and Venezuela agreed with non-OPEC member Russia to freeze output at January's highs. But while the market seems to like the fact that top producers are starting to take action to rein in supply, it "remains questionable' whether such moves will have a real impact, he said. Oil futures fell more than 1 percent on Tuesday amid worries rising Iranian output would deepen a global crude oversupply, offsetting expectations of a drop in U.S. production that had spurred sharp price gains in the prior session. Key oil exporters, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, have proposed to freeze output at January levels, but only if others joined in. While Iran, now free of international sanctions that hurt its oil trade, has welcomed the move, the country has stopped short of pledging to act itself. It is thus unclear whether the freeze will actually happen. The drop in benchmark prices is partly due to the prospect of rising Iranian production prolonging the world oversupply, analysts said. Globally, 1-2 million of barrels of crude are currently estimated to be produced daily in excess of demand. Oil prices jumped more than 5 percent on Monday, buoyed by projections from the IEA, the world's oil consumer body, that U.S. shale oil production could fall by 600,000 bpd this year and another 200,000 bpd in 2017. The IEA, however, said in the longer term, U.S. production would also recover on improving cost efficiency, lifting output to a record 14.2 million bpd by 2021, compared with a peak of over 9.5 million bpd in 2015. The expected resurgence of U.S. shale oil production will cap a recovery in the coming years in the price of oil, which is expected to reach $80 per barrel by 2020, IEA Director Fatih Birol said at a news conference in Houston, Texas. The Federal Reserve's top markets official warned on Monday that a trend of U.S. money market firms converting funds from "prime" to "government-only" could be sharply reversed and harm the overall execution of policy when a new Fed tool is eventually dismantled. In a speech on tools the U.S. central bank adopted to wrench interest rates from near zero in December, New York Fed markets chief Simon Potter warned money funds that one of those tools, an overnight repurchase facility known as ON RRP, is only temporary. The Fed's policy-making committee took the aggressive step in December of backing the ON RRP facility with up to $2 trillion in bonds, which many investors took as a signal that it would remain in place for some time. But the Fed has long said the tool would only be used as long as it was necessary to keep lifting rates off the floor. The dollar remained broadly higher against the other major currencies on Monday, hovering close to two-week highs as hopes for additional U.S. rate hikes this year continued to support the greenback. The euro weakened after research group Markit said that its Flash Euro Zone Composite Output Index, which measures the combined output of both the manufacturing and service sectors dropped from 53.6 in January to 53.0 in February, a 13-month low and below forecasts for 53.3. The report came shortly after data showing that French private sector activity slid into contraction territory last month, while business activity in Germany grew at the slowest pace in seven months. The data added to pressure on the ECB to step up measures to bolster growth in the region. Sterling came under broad selling pressure after London Mayor Boris Johnson’s shock decision to back a campaign for Britain to exit the European Union. British Prime Minister David Cameron reached a deal with EU leaders on Friday giving Britain a special status in the bloc, which paved the way for him to call a referendum on EU membership on June 23. But on Sunday London’s Mayor Boris Johnson said he would be supporting the campaign to leave, arguing it is a chance "to vote for real change". [/QUOTE]
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