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Daily Market Outlook by Solid Trust Markets
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[QUOTE="SolidTrustMarket, post: 103784, member: 36800"] [b]Daily Market Outlook 10 June[/b] [img]https://scontent-lhr3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xtl1/v/t1.0-9/12717510_174118869626335_4845820293159483711_n.jpg?oh=2a23c6b13a613b005f9fef79fea074e7&oe=576A6387[/img] Asian shares pulled back on Friday as investors sought refuge in safe-haven assets amid festering concerns over the June 23 referendum that could see Britain exit the European Union. Wall Street shares also pulled back on Thursday after three days of gains, as a decline in the number of unemployment benefit claims last week showed the labour market remains strong despite May's unexpected drop in job growth. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, pointing to sustained strength in the labor market despite a sharp slowdown in hiring last month. The rise in inventories came even as sales at wholesalers rose for a second straight month. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits declined 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 264,000 for the week ended June 4, the Labor Department said. The drop confounded economists' expectations for an increase to 270,000. Claims have dropped by 30,000 since surging to 294,000 in early May. They have now been below 300,000, a threshold associated with a strong job market, for 66 straight weeks, the longest streak since 1973. The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell 7,500 to 269,500 last week. The claims report offered the latest sign that the labor market remains strong even though the economy added only 38,000 jobs in May, the smallest gain since September 2010. A report on Wednesday showed job openings hitting a nine-month high in April and layoffs falling to their lowest level since September 2014. The claims report also showed the number of Americans still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid fell in the week ending May 28 to the lowest level since October 2000. The insured unemployment rate fell one-tenth of a percentage point to a record low of 1.5 percent. The health of the labor market will likely determine the timing of the next Federal Reserve interest rate increase. Fed Chair Janet Yellen this week reiterated the U.S. central bank's desire to raise rates, but gave no hints on when that might happen. Growth prospects for the second quarter received a further boost from a separate report from the Commerce Department on Thursday showing wholesale inventories increasing 0.6 percent in April, the biggest gain since June last year, after rising 0.2 percent in March. Sales at wholesalers jumped 1.0 percent in April, the largest increase since April 2015, after advancing 0.6 percent in March. With sales increasing solidly for a second straight month, it would take wholesalers 1.35 months to clear shelves, down from 1.36 months in March. The dollar index was on track for a modest weekly gain on Friday, having bounced off this week's one-month lows as the euro took a heavy spill while sterling stayed under a cloud on jitters over the upcoming Brexit vote. A Reuters report on Commerzbank looking to put billions of euros in vaults rather than pay a penalty charge for parking them with the European Central Bank appeared to have unsettled an already nervous market. The U.S. Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold its two-day policy meeting through Wednesday, while the Bank of Japan concludes its own two-day policy meeting on Thursday. China's industrial production and retail sales data due on Monday could also set the tone for Asian trading next week. The pound has whipsawed in recent session in response to polls and other developments ahead of the UK's June 23 referendum on EU membership. BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, said financial markets may be under-pricing the "Brexit" risk of Britain leaving the EU. With the euro zone and the UK in focus overnight, the dollar enjoyed a small reprieve. Dollar bulls had been hit hard since disappointing payrolls data a week ago convinced investors that the Fed will refrain from hiking interest rates as early as next week's policy review. A fresh batch of U.S. data on Thursday was more encouraging, with a surge in wholesale inventories in April prompting economists to lift their second-quarter economic growth estimates. Oil prices fell on Friday, as a stronger dollar pulled crude off the 2016 highs hit this week, although strong refinery demand and global supply disruptions lent some support. Crude prices have virtually doubled since touching their lowest in more than a decade in early 2016 as strong demand and supply disruptions erode a glut that pulled down prices by as much as 70 percent from a mid-2014 peak. Market rebalancing is ongoing. On the demand side, global refining activity is about to hit its highest on record just as crude supply disruptions around the world tighten the market. Data in Thomson Reuters Eikon shows that currently available global refining capacity will reach 101.8 million bpd in August, its highest on record, and up from around 97.25 million bpd in March. Of the available capacity, investment bank Jefferies said on Friday that U.S. refinery utilization alone reached 90.9 percent in the first week of June. Traders said that this means that producers need to pump every barrel of crude they can to meet refinery demand, and that the supply disruptions around the world - from Canadian wildfires, sabotage in Nigeria, and output cuts in the United States, Venezuela and Asia - will tighten the market and eat into inventories. Yet the strong refinery output could end as fast as it came as the reserve capacity, the difference between available and installed capacity, is about to fall below half a million bpd, the tightest since late 2013, the data shows. [/QUOTE]
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