y Technical Analysis by Forex4you

[Trevor]

USD/JPY: possible breakout
The dollar-yen has successfully broken out of the falling channel since March and there is a possibility of a reversal in trend taking shape with more upside to come. It is still a little early to be sure but if the price action today closes above the channel then this could constitute a valid break-out and indicate a continuation of the rally higher, with 50 and 100 day MA's at 80.15 targeted initially and possibly 80.75 thereafter.


EUR/USD
The eurodollar continues to rise in a counter-trend short-covering rally. It is currently moving higher in a zig-zag which has completed wave’s A and B and is now probably unfolding C, which could reach 1.2670 if it obeys wave equality with A. However there is resistance ahead at 1.2605, from the weekly pivot, and also at 1.2625 from the Jan lows so either of these could repel the advance. A break lower would probably fall to the cluster of support at around 1.2510, including the trend-line of the move.


Analysis prepared by:
Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
Forex4you analysts

[Trevor]

AUD/USD: triangle completing
The counter-trend rally rolled over yesterday and is currently falling. This bear move has consolidated and formed a triangle on the 30min chart. The triangle is near completion and will probably break lower - confirmed by a break of 0.9820 and then targeting the 50-day MA at 0.9785. From there it is possible a reversal will take shape and the rally off the 1st June lows will resume. An upside break out, confirmed by a rise above 0.9860, would on the other hand, be expected to reach the 100-day MA at 0.9890.


USD/JPY: break confirmed
The USD/JPY has closed on the daily chart above the channel adding confirmation to the bullish breakout. It is now possible that the exchange rate could climb higher and fulfil its breakout target at 80.70. As a precaution I would look for a break of 79.78 highs first. Today the pair is falling and could reach the channel-line which will support at around 79.05, from there it could threaten to break back into the descending channel, however a bounce is more likely given the other support form MA's and pivots.


EUR/USD: continuation lower
Yesterday's price action took the form of an ominous shooting star candlestick and today has given bearish confirmation. There has been a breakdown out of the ascending channel since the June 1st lows, yielding a target at level of the 1.2287 lows. The weekly pivot at 1.2445 is another closer target and also 1.2330. Right now price is bouncing and could pull-back to 1.2800, but bar a complete reversal latter in the day – which looks unlikely due to the light economic schedule – I think it will continue lower.


Analysis prepared by:
Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
Forex4you analysts

[Trevor]

EUR/USD: open gap filling
There is a strong possibility price may drop to fill the open gap this morning – indeed it already appears to be doing so. The bottom of the gap is at 1.2517 and it is possible it could reach there. A more modest target would come from the cluster of MA’s at 1.2550, which is also the 50% retracement of the bullish break. A recovery move higher would probably target 1.2705 whether from the current level or from 1.2550.


USD/JPY
The dollar-yen recently broke out of a down-sloping channel and has closed two days running above the channel giving a potentially bullish longer-term outlook. However, today the pair has started to fall after hitting resistance at the 79.70 highs and may return to re-touch the lows and/or the channel line again at around 79.20. If on the other hand there is a break to the upside above 79.70 then the 100 and 50-day MA's at around 80.20 would provide the next target higher.


Analysis prepared by:
Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
Forex4you analysts

[Trevor]

USD/JPY: consolidation range
The dollar-yen is consolidating within a range. Currently it has reached near the the highs at 79.50. It may have completed its move higher and be on the way back down to the bottom of the range at 79.20. There is the possibility of a breakout after the consolidation move has completed. The pair has already broken out of a descending channel on the daily chart and further upside is possible despite waning momentum, with 80.20 targeted higher.


EUR/USD
The strong move down yesterday may have completed an Elliot wave which could be followed by a counter-trend rally up to resistance at 1.2535/50. Another possibility is that there could be another final wave 5 yet to unfold which could fall to a major support at 1.2445. A break of that would set up for a strong move to the old lows at 1.2287; and even if the pair rallies it should roll-over eventually and fall lower.


Analysis prepared by:
Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
Forex4you analysts

[Trevor]

EUR/USD: range-bound
Eurodollar is trading in a range which it is currently at the top of and poised for a possible breakout higher. If it succeeds then expect a strong move up to the level of the weekly pivot at 1.2630 which is also equal to the width of the consolidation. Given the pair has broken out of its rising channel however a downside bias is present and the possibility of a fall to the major support lows at 1.2450 remains potent.


GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair has continued to move sideways in a right-angled triangle consolidation although it has pushed a little higher each time and looks poised for a possible break higher. Candlesticks, however, remain bearish on the hourly chart and it is possible there will be a move down initially, perhaps to support at 1.5525 or even lower to the border of the triangle at 1.5490. A bullish break could reach 1.5670 relatively easily but would meet major resistance from the monthly pivot at that level.


Analysis prepared by:
Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
Forex4you analysts

[Trevor]

AUD/USD
Earlier forecasts, expecting correction in the pair, seem to be confirming, although the price hasn't reached its local lows yet and is still consolidating in the upper part of consolidation range between 1.0000/20 – 0.9860/30 levels, which gives reasons to consider risks of further possible growth to the next resistances at 1.0120/50 level. On the other hand, indicators suggest further decline, most likely towards 0.9620/00 local minimums. 0.9790/0.9800 support breakout will be a signal to the above mentioned scenario. Another bounce from 0.9860/30 support, which is a lower bond of the correction range, will indicate the beginning of the alternative scenario - growth towards 1.0120/50 level.


EUR/JPY
The EUR/JPY pair is consolidating within a range with a neutral-to-slightly-bearish bias because of the sharp move down on Monday and the exhaustion gap on Friday which probably signalled the end of the up-trend. If it breaks below the 98.69 lows it could continue and re-touch the trend-line at 97.85; alternatively a break above the 100.40 level would signal a probable move higher, perhaps to 101.15 where pivot and moving average merge to cap further gains.


GBP/USD
1.5590/1.5600 resistance held back bullish attempts to push the price higher, so trading recommenced its decline and is now carried out at 1.5490/1.5500 level. Indicators are bearish again, suggesting further decline. If currently tested support is breached, the price will plunge towards 1.5400 level and then to the new local minimums at 1.5280/1.5300. On the other hand, it's worth taking into account the fact, that the pair resides close to the upper bound of correction range, which leaves the possibility of further attempts to rise towards higher resistances, most likely at 1.5650 level, mentioned earlier. Medium-term outlook suggests decline to the next targets at 1.5230/20, 1.5100/20supports, as the downtrend is still deemed as dominating.


EUR/USD
Forecasts confirmed and the price continued its consolidation within the ranges. Trading is currently carried out at 1.2580/90 levels. Indicators are more bullish, which gives reasons to anticipate another test of 1.2620/40 resistance. Growth to 1.2800 level is also possible, but only as a correction to the downtrend. Therefore, reversal up in a medium-term is unlikely, and the bearish trend towards the next targets at 1.2240/00 level is the most probable scenario for the near future.

EUR/NZD: reversal possible
The EUR/NZD has fallen in a neat zig-zag down to the lower trend-line of the correction back from the February lows. This is also the level of the S1 monthly pivot and price action has formed a 2-bar reversal pattern on it. A bounce is indicated although today's activity remains muted. A break of the 1.6260 highs could act as confirmation of a new move up to 1.6340 initially, whilst a break below the 1.6050 support shelf – although a surprise – would confirm a break lower, targeting the 1.5590 lows.

Analysis prepared by:
Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
Forex4you analysts

[Trevor]

EUR/USD: reversal possible
Eurodollar has rallied up quite strongly but has now reached a strong resistance level at around 1.2630 where it may reverse; a weekly pivot, January's lows and the fulfilment of the target from the box pattern breakout earlier in the week combine to make this a significant resistance level. Last Friday's exhaustion gap probably marks the end of the up-trend making it unlikely prices will advance above 1.2667. Its probable that a reversal pattern may form and the rate will fall first to 1.2560 and then 1.2510 at the bottom of the gap.


USD/JPY
Earlier forecasts, expecting another decline towards breached downtrend line (blue line), seem to be confirming. The price is testing earlier mentioned 78.80/70 support and may drop even lower, towards 78.60/50 line. Indicators have turned down, but it doesn't contradict the above mentioned assumption. Reversal to the channel's sector will give reasons to expect more serious changes in the market sentiment - i.e decline to the local minimum at 77.80. Current decline should be considered just a correction to growth, ascension may recommence anytime.


GBP/USD: right-angled triangle
GBP/USD is tracing out a right-angled triangle. There was a temporary break to the downside this morning but no follow-through. We are now back in the 'range' and a break out higher or lower is still possible, although a break higher is more likely given the right-angled shape. A rise above 1.5620 ought to give confirmation of a bullish break targeting 1.5670 relatively easily. A fall below 1.5450 would confirm a breakdown with a dependable target at 1.5385.


Analysis prepared by:
Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
Forex4you analysts

[Trevor]

EUR/USD
Eurodollar gapped up at the open but has since fallen back down to below the monthly pivot at 1.2660. It is currently being supported by a trend-line. If it breaks lower then it will probably reach 1.2580 and then 1.2550 eventually. A rally back up would meet resistance from the monthly pivot at 1.2660 but could even rise higher to re-touch the highs at 1.2740.


AUD/USD
The pair continued its growth and tested 1.0120/50 resistance, mentioned earlier as another target. Trading is currently carried out at 1.0080/90 level. Indicators (MACD divergence) suggest further possible pullback towards lower levels. 1.0020/10 support may become a barrier for decline. If so, trading will consolidate within 1.0120/50 – 1.0020/10 range. Should the price breach 1.0020/00 support, trading will slip down to 0.9930/40. 1.0120/50 maximum breakout will be hindered by the strength of this resistance, which is even stronger, since it matches with corrected downtrend line (blue line).


GBP/USD: rolling-over
The GBP/USD is falling from the peak reached on Friday. It has now pulled back 38.2% of the previous move and broken below the monthly pivot. It will probably continue to fall until it reaches the top of the range at 1.5605. This is also the level of the 50% Fibonacci line adding further support. On the other hand a recover could lead to a final move back up to the level of the highs at 1.5760.


EUR/JPY: box consolidation
The EUR/JPY is consolidating in a range. It gapped up to the highs this morning at 100.70 but has since fallen down to fill the gap. There is the possibility of a break above the top of the box consolidation which would be confirmed by a move above 101.20, which would then target 102.60, where the 50-day MA caps further gains. A breakout lower would be confirmed by a move below 98.60 with a downside target of 97.75.


Analysis prepared by:
Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
Forex4you analysts

[Trevor]

EUR/USD
The eurodollar pair has fallen to the bottom channel-line of the move off the June 1st lows. It has posted a hammer candlestick on the hourly chart and begun to rise. There is the possibility of another move back up to the 1.2660 resistance level where the monthly pivot is situated. Alternatively the pair could break down out of the channel, targeting 1.2440 eventually with confirmation given by a move below 1.2540.


EUR/GBP: rising channel
The EUR/GBP pair continues to consolidate in a rising channel. It is currently at the base of the formation and has just bounced off the lower channel- line and it is possible it will now rally back up to the range highs around 0.8150, although considerable resistance currently lies directly above price preventing more gains and equally it could pull-back to support at 0.8025. A major breakout lower would target 0.7900 and then 0.7875 eventually with confirmation given below 0.7995.


GBP/USD
The price attempted to breach 1.5650 support, but failed. Trading descended, but then recommenced growth. Such reversal may be a sign of a possible consolidation within 1.5720/40 – 1.5650 range, which may end up with a breakout higher and lead the price towards 1.5840 level. Indicators, however, still suggest further decline, which is quite a possibility if the price breaches 1.5560 support and then 1.5470/60 level. If it does, trading will drop back to 1.5280/70 minimums any time soon.


USD/JPY
The price tested breached downtrend (blue) line, which indicated its strength as a support and initiated reversal to growth. Having reached 79.30/20 line, trading is currently carried out at 78.90/80 level. Earlier forecasts, predicting correction to growth, mentioned in the previous comments, look to be confirming. Indicators suggest further ascension, which gives reasons to anticipate growth. Strong resistance levels on the way up will be found at 79.40/50 and 79.80 levels. Should the price breach these barriers, trading will rise towards 80.60, and then to 81.20/30 level.


Analysis prepared by:
Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
Forex4you analysts

[Trevor]

EUR/USD: channeling
The pair is still climbing within a channel. It will probably continue higher and possibly re-touch the 1.2750 highs, or even the upper channel line at 1.2790. If there is a fall back down then the monthly pivot underpins support at 1.2660, although a breach of that would probably lead to a move down to the lower channel-line at 1.2615.


EUR/JPY: box-formation
The EUR/JPY is trading in a box-formation with a breakout move on the horizon. It has just rallied off the lows and gone back up into the range. A break above 101.10/20 would be a strong sign of a move higher targeting 102.25 initially and then potentially the H&S neckline at 103.25. A break below 98.65 on the other hand would target 97.90 first and then possibly 96.95 eventually.


USD/CHF: downside possible
The swissie is in a falling wedge pattern with indications of more downside from sentiment extremes and new lows. This could target first 0.9370 at the lower line of the wedge and the level of the 50-day MA, and then if there is a breakout from the pattern lower to 0.9190. A break out above the wedge, on the other hand, could reach 0.9700 level.


GBP/USD: technical analysis
Forecasts confirmed and the pair stayed within 1.5720/40 – 1.5650 range and is now attempting to breach the resistance of this range. Trading is currently carried out at 1.5730/40 levels. Indicators are now more "bullish", suggesting highly possible growth towards 1.5840 level, mentioned in the previous comment. However, even if growth takes place, medium-term bearish trend will still remain dominating. 1.5560 - 1.5470/60 support range breakout will indicate a reversal down.


AUD/USD
Hopes that 1.0120/50 resistance would be strong failed. The price breached this barrier and now resides at 1.0190/1.0200 levels. Indicators are now more or less steady, indicating further growth. However, MACD divergence warns us of a possible pullback. Strong resitance at 1.0230/20 gives reasons to be cautious and expect ascension to halt. Therefore, its worth considering a possibility of decline towards 1.0120/30 support level. If it's breached, level 1.00020/30 will be tested soon after. Further growth will be held back by 1.0230/50 barrier.

Analysis prepared by:
Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
Forex4you analysts