Forex Forum - EarnForex
Serving Traders Since 2005
 

Go Back   Forex Forum - EarnForex > Forex Discussions > Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Provide and discuss the technical analysis of the Forex market.

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1 (permalink)  
Old 8th May 2011, 10:30
Default Avatar
Junior Member
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Haifa, Israel
Posts: 25
Thanks: 0
Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Default Monthly trend of EUR/USD

I shall give a forecast for the end of May.

I shall be posting monthly forecasts for EUR/USD Exchange rates, monthly.
My analysis is not based on the standard methods used by technical analysts.
It based on phase space reconstruction and projection.
I predict a down trend to circa 1.44-1.45 from the closing value of end of April.
Reply With Quote
  #2 (permalink)  
Old 15th June 2011, 16:56
Default Avatar
Junior Member
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Haifa, Israel
Posts: 25
Thanks: 0
Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Default

Looks like my monthly trend predictions are converging as they did last month.
No fancy-schmancy indicators and pseudoscience crap.
Just plain old science.
Reply With Quote
  #3 (permalink)  
Old 15th June 2011, 17:19
Enivid's Avatar
Administrator
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,548
Thanks: 18
Thanked 20 Times in 16 Posts
Default

Which science? Can you give us more details?
__________________
Please, read the Forum Rules and the Signature Rules to avoid termination of your account.
Reply With Quote
  #4 (permalink)  
Old 15th June 2011, 18:04
Default Avatar
Junior Member
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Haifa, Israel
Posts: 25
Thanks: 0
Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Default Science of dynamical systems

Noiseless Reconstruction of phase attractor of time series and projection ahead.
Reply With Quote
  #5 (permalink)  
Old 15th June 2011, 18:12
Default Avatar
Junior Member
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Haifa, Israel
Posts: 25
Thanks: 0
Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Default Attractor EUR/USD

The shape of the attractor is quite interesting.
Attached Images
File Type: gif attractor_eurusd.gif (10.5 KB, 4 views)
Reply With Quote
  #6 (permalink)  
Old 16th June 2011, 08:11
Enivid's Avatar
Administrator
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,548
Thanks: 18
Thanked 20 Times in 16 Posts
Default

Different colors resemble different time period - blue is the old, red is the new data, right?
But how do you trade using this model?
__________________
Please, read the Forum Rules and the Signature Rules to avoid termination of your account.
Reply With Quote
  #7 (permalink)  
Old 16th June 2011, 09:42
Default Avatar
Junior Member
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Haifa, Israel
Posts: 25
Thanks: 0
Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Default Different colors refer to different cycles

This model actually shows market "errors".
if today's value is outside one of the trajectories, then it is clear that market will perform "correction".

The trade strategy of such a model is to trade in options.
If the predicted correction is up then a call option is warranted.
And vice versa.
Reply With Quote
  #8 (permalink)  
Old 16th June 2011, 19:16
Enivid's Avatar
Administrator
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,548
Thanks: 18
Thanked 20 Times in 16 Posts
Default

But how do you predict corrections with it? Can you share some link where this model is described in details?
__________________
Please, read the Forum Rules and the Signature Rules to avoid termination of your account.
Reply With Quote
  #9 (permalink)  
Old 16th June 2011, 19:51
Default Avatar
Junior Member
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Haifa, Israel
Posts: 25
Thanks: 0
Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Default The theory behind it all is called "embedology"

I can refer you to the original papers by Sauer, Yorke and Casdagli.
A good review of Takens theorem is posted here (basis of embedology):
http://eprints.ma.man.ac.uk/175/01/c..._ep2006_26.pdf
Reply With Quote
  #10 (permalink)  
Old 23rd June 2011, 15:04
Enivid's Avatar
Administrator
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,548
Thanks: 18
Thanked 20 Times in 16 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ryaron View Post
I can refer you to the original papers by Sauer, Yorke and Casdagli.
A good review of Takens theorem is posted here (basis of embedology):
http://eprints.ma.man.ac.uk/175/01/c..._ep2006_26.pdf
But doesn't Takens theorem concerns only deterministic systems? Markets aren't deterministic at all...
__________________
Please, read the Forum Rules and the Signature Rules to avoid termination of your account.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
1500 pips monthly nicetrader144 Advertisements 0 24th February 2011 17:24
fx managed account 6-12%monthly returns managedfx7 Advertisements 0 6th January 2011 19:06
A VERY profitable EA - 50% monthly return charlosforexmaster Advertisements 1 15th July 2010 11:25
Managed Accounts with 75% returns monthly... THIS IS NO HYPE ocee87 Advertisements 16 12th February 2010 23:01
Earn 20%/monthly athanh Advertisements 3 9th December 2009 05:21


All times are GMT. The time now is 19:21.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2012, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Inactive Reminders By Icora Web Design

SEO by vBSEO 3.3.2