GBP/USD 01.09.12

[Stevenfx]

The 50 EMA has been following the pair for several weeks and it plays the role of a resistance. Each time the pair touched the 50 EMA it immediately turned over and started a bearish session. So did happen on Tuesday when the pair hit the resistance at 1.566 and slid down to the support of 1.54. The next support is at 1.53 and a break-down there might take the pound down to the psychological number 1.50.
The official bank rate will be published this Thursday, 45 minutes before the European bid rate is published. There are no too many surprises expected regarding the interest level and therefore the MPC rate statement will be in the center.

[Stevenfx]

The pound reached during last week to the target we set to the bullish session, at the 200 SMA (1.593) and started correcting from this point. It broke the support at 1.578, which was a former break-up level that turned to a support. Stochastic oscillator is showing an overbuying situation and therefore the price might slide to the next support at 1.56. However, the correction might not last too long and the GBP can make a bullish reversal around the current levels and try to break-through the 200 SMA again.
The British currency influenced by the European debt problem, so the recent events in the Greek scene have a high impact to the GBP as well. The inflation report by the Bank of England on Wednesday is an important indicator regarding the British economy and will have an influence about the currency.
gbpusd1302.jpg

[gfs]

GBP FUTURES GBP/USD
Date 21/02/2012
Total Open Interest 186,626
Net Marginal Change -3,132

The British Sterling futures Open Interest decreased by another 3,132 transactions. Cable’s interest remains low among futures traders. The OI has been quite volatile recently. Overall GBP decreased by 10.3% since 03 Jan 2012. This decline might signal the end of massive recent downtrend (1.61-1.52). Since 1.52 we have experienced rising prices on the ranging interest. Given that the downtrend is now over, we expect higher prices in GBP/USD. More new OI is needed to support more substantial move upwards. Expect the correction towards 1.56 in short run.