Dollar Again Finds Takers

[mercaforex]

By Mercaforex

USD:
The USD gained against the EUR and GBP on Tuesday as the U.S. stock markets began to take it on the chin as the day progressed. Wide losses coming on Wall Street appeared to have thrown a familiar ‘ring’ of risk aversion into the currency markets internationally. This occurred even as the ISM Manufacturing PMI report produced a better than expected reading of 52.9 compared to the estimate of 50.6. Also the Pending Home Sales figures outcome showed a gain of 3.2%. While the economic statistics may have provided investors some impetus for positive sentiment among some, Wall Street shrugged off the better numbers. Perhaps this had to do with a perspective that share values had gained significantly before and in essence had already priced the positive data into the market. It also did not help Wall Street that a handful of powerful voices have expressed doubts about the recent bull run.
Today the ADP Non Farm Employment Change numbers are due, which is a forerunner for the government report scheduled on Friday. Today’s employment numbers are expected to be an improvement over the previous results as are other releases that are on the calendar such as Factory Orders. Tomorrow the Weekly Unemployment Claims will be brought forth before the data climaxes on Friday in the U.S. with the critical Jobless data. Yesterday’s trading results may sound a warning siren for some investors who have questioned the notion that improving data does not necessarily mean that the recession is about to end quickly. Simply put, just because manufacturing numbers are improving, this does not mean that factory capacity is high enough to set off a celebration parade. The same can be said for the Pending Home Sale outcome from yesterday, the numbers may be better but only compared to what has been a very poor market. Thus major questions still persists about the U.S. economy and Wall Street which seemingly jumped ahead of the game with better results in the summer may find a difficult path in the coming days. If the stock markets struggle, traders may find a USD which finds additional support under the guise of the ‘old banner’- safe haven.

EUR:
The EUR struggled as the day progressed on Tuesday as international equity markets began to tumble. The German Retail Sales figures met expectations head on with a 0.7% outcome yesterday. Today the broad European Revised GDP data is on schedule and a figure of minus -0.1% is anticipated. While this number could prove noteworthy if it provides a surprise, it is more likely that investors will continue to stay fairly cautious before the ECB announces their key interest rate decision tomorrow and President Trichet holds his press conference. The European Union stands on a rather delicate precipice. The past few weeks have produced better than expected data and thus proclamations of a broad economic turnaround have been heard. However, investors will be on the lookout for Trichet’s perceptions tomorrow and the substance behind his words. While the EUR has managed to stay at the higher end of its mid-term range against the USD it has also showed signs of not being able to push much further. With questions hovering over nervous equity investors, the EUR may find itself under pressure.

GBP:
Sterling found a difficult road with the combination of a disturbing Manufacturing PMI and a stock market that slumped. The Manufacturing PMI turned in a reading of 49.7, which was below the expectation of 51.5. While some British politicians have been speaking up their belief that the worst of the recession is behind, the currency market proved that not all is wine and roses in reality and that troubles may continue. The U.K. like its international counterparts may in fact have seen the bottom of an economy in crisis, but as pointed out before stability does not mean that meaningful growth is sure to follow. Today the U.K. will release its Construction PMI and an outcome of 48.1 is projected. The Halifax HPI has been pushed back yet another day and may see light tomorrow, the Services PMI is definitely on the calendar for Thursday however. The GBP has had a difficult week of trading after turning in rather stellar results the last month, investors will continue to monitor the Sterling and test its resolve.

JPY:
The JPY gained again against the major currencies as Asian investors and others continued to prove that nervous bourses make for a stronger Japanese currency. It may only be a coincidence, but it should be noted that the recent strength of the JPY has also come on the back of the Chinese bourses – particularly the Shanghai market – struggling the past two weeks. Gold was able to maintain is ground on Tuesday and hovered around the 955.00 USD mark. The JPY has enjoyed a strong run against a wide basket of currencies and it now stands on the stronger side of its range against the USD and may prove interesting to watch the next few trading days.

[Pinalli]

The Dollar has been falling this month – in tandem with the US stock markets. The question remains for Forex traders, will this trend continue and if so, how low can it go?

[Sofia]

Hi Pinali,

I see that the Dollars fall was also sparked by the rise in commodity prices such as gold which traded above $1,000 for the first time since February.

Concerns over the USD's status as the reserve currency were also a factor as a report by the United Nations which called for a new World Reserve System diminished the demand for the Dollar.

[Pinalli]

Originally Posted by Sofia

Hi Pinali,

I see that the Dollars fall was also sparked by the rise in commodity prices such as gold which traded above $1,000 for the first time since February.

Concerns over the USD's status as the reserve currency were also a factor as a report by the United Nations which called for a new World Reserve System diminished the demand for the Dollar.

hey,

The US Dollar dropped to its lowest point in a year against a basket of currencies on Tuesday, after broad gains stocks brought a return of risk appetite. Trading volume was markedly higher, as Forex investors returned from their vacations and began to assess the happenings of recent weeks.

[Sofia]

Yea... the US Dollar gained broadly on Monday, as Forex investors pared their open USD shorts in advance of the Federal Reserve meeting and subsequent decision on interest rates later on this week.

It is not expected that the Fed will move, and in very thin trading Monday it appeared as if traders were simply going through the motions.

The lack of any relevant economic data or event on Monday to boost trading gave traders an excuse to take profits on positions that have rallied against the Dollar in recent weeks as well, helping the greenback to its second session of gains.

At 10:30PM GMT, the US Dollar was up .155 to the Euro to 1.4688, up .8% to the Japanese Yen to 92, up .35% to the British Pound to 1.6213, up .85% versus the Canadian Dollar to 1.0779, up .21% against the New Zealand Dollar to .7076, up .2% to the Swiss Franc at 1.0315 and up .5% against the Australian Dollar to hold at .8632.

The Dollar rose also versus a basket of currencies, the ICE Futures Dollar Index, to 77.108, its highest level since Sept. 10. The ICE Index has been flirting with yearly lows in recent sessions and Monday’s performance was not expected to change the overall trend in the currency.

[Pinalli]

Hi,


Fed speakers overnight maintained a cautious approach to the US’ economic recovery. Fed VC Kohn said the uncertainty on the economy was :quite high” but expects the economy to recover at a “moderate” pace in H2 before strengthening in 2010, with activity shifting more from inventory adjustment to demand-driven, while inflation remains subdued for some time. He added the FOMC saw such conditions as supporting “unusually low rates for an extended period”.

[Sofia]

On the dollar-front it was a more mixed session with the two business surveys from the US for October offering conflicting views. First off the empire manufacturing survey rose strongly to 34.6 (consensus 17.3 from 18.9 previously) which tipped bond prices lower, helping USDJPY to climb through the 90.40 resistance level en-route higher. EURUSD saw an early sell-off after ECB’s Trichet said the EUR had not been created to be the world’s reserve currency. However, reserve managers were seen buying into the dip (funnily enough) and the better US data helped EURUSD back above 1.49. Later, a slightly softer Philly Fed index (11.0 vs. 12.0 expected and 14.1 last) pulled the pair back from the day’s highs. In other data releases, CPI held no surprises but the weekly jobless claims improved to 514k (520k consensus), the lowest in 40 weeks while continuing claims dipped below the 6 mln mark for the first time since late March.