Serving Traders Since 2005
|
|
|
|||||||
| Fundamental Analysis Provide and discuss the fundamental analysis of the Forex market. |
![]() |
|
|
LinkBack | Thread Tools | Display Modes |
|
||||
|
The report below shows levels of open interest in currency futures market. The data is based on Chicago Mercantile Exchange Daily Volume and Open Interest Report. Data provided by the report contains Open Interest from the previous trading day.
Interpretation and analysis – GainForexSignal Team Euro FX EUR/USD Date 01/02/2012 Total Open Interest 305,328 Net Marginal Change 2,215 Marginal Accumulation 178,272 Change in Total OI (%) 79.23 Yesterday futures traders added 2,215 new contracts. As mentioned, euro dropped only 4.5% in open interest since the correction. It is not sufficient enough to sustain the current breakout yet. Only 10-12% drop has a significant impact on prices. Euro, as expected declined today against dollar. Pair should range around the 1.30 area until a further drop in OI. Decline in OI will put an upwards pressure on the spot price by short covering. We have not seen this dynamic fully in play yet. Options ratio remains at 67% range in calls and growing. Strategy - buy on dips. We still expect more substantial correction towards 1.30-1.29 area before the trend resumes. GBP FUTURES GBP/USD Date 01/02/2012 Total Open Interest 190,849 Net Marginal Change -1,133 Marginal Accumulation -23,941 Change in Total OI (%) -12.7 The British Pound futures market dropped 1,133 contracts in yesterday session. Cable advanced even higher today against the dollar. GBP/USD is now trading above 1.58. This level has not been seen in the British pound market since 15th November 2011. Although there was no correction yet, the outlook remains bullish. We should see more new money coming into this market. GFS holds the long position in GBP/USD since 1.5360. YEN FUTURES USD/JPY Date 01/02/2012 Total Open Interest 172,967 Net Marginal Change 3,568 Marginal Accumulation 4,897 Change in Total OI (%) 2.91 Yen futures traders keep creating massive amount of new transactions in this forex market. Yesterday they added another 3,568. After massive 12% drop in open interest in yen futures, now traders are net positive. At this stage it is hard to say where we go from here. Based on the price action, this market remains dangerous and flat. Dangerous because the intervention and flat because has not moved from current levels. If one wanted to build on the speculative expectation of BOJ intervention, the strategy would be to buy support and sell the top of the spike. I would suggest waiting for the spike and selling the top. I think it is fear to say at this stage that BOJ has no control over its money. Every past treasury purchase to weaken the yen had no effect. Yen (despite irrationality) will remain the “safe heaven “for many. Consider that fundamental analysis favour yen strength over the long run. After correction, we might see even lower prices in USD/JPY in 2012. FRANK FUTURES USD/CHF Date 01/02/2012 Total Open Interest 40,836 Net Marginal Change -546 Marginal Accumulation 1,522 Change in Total OI (%) 3.76 Frank futures lost marginal 546 contracts. Our outlook on this market remains the same i.e. Sell USD/CHF on rallies. Bulls seem to dominate the market in forex Frank futures. As open interest stayed slow, it has added some of the new transactions. Strategy – buy on rallies. We anticipate much lower prices in USD/CHF in 2012. AUD FUTURES AUD/USD Date 01/02/2012 Total Open Interest 150,115 Net Marginal Change 2,822 Marginal Accumulation 47,455 Change in Total OI (%) 32.96 Australian dollar is still on the rise! AUD/USD advanced further in today’s trading. It has now reached levels from September 2011. Aud futures traders added 2,822 new transactions. AUD/USD remains the strongest currency on the board. We anticipate even higher prices as long as forex traders will keep pouring money into AUD futures. For the full report please go to Futures report |
|
||||
|
The report below shows levels of open interest in currency futures market. The data is based on Chicago Mercantile Exchange Daily Volume and Open Interest Report. Data provided by the report contains Open Interest from the previous trading day.
Interpretation and analysis – GainForexSignal Team Euro FX EUR/USD Date 02/02/2012 Total Open Interest 303,919 Net Marginal Change -1,409 Marginal Accumulation 176,863 Change in Total OI (%) 78.60 As expected, Euro’s open interest declined again by 1,409 contracts. The decline in OI seems to be unfolding. It is still around 4%. It is not enough to call the bottom yet. EUR/USD spot price remained unchanged in today’s trading. The outlook remains bullish. We expect the correction back to 1.20-1.28 to enter long positions on dropping open interest. GBP FUTURES GBP/USD Date 02/02/2012 Total Open Interest 196,123 Net Marginal Change 5,274 Marginal Accumulation 7,290 Change in Total OI (%) 3.9 The British Pound futures market added substantial 5,274 new transactions. Pound is now getting some steam and new money is being invested in this forex market. Cable, since the decline in open interest, added 7,290 new contracts (3.9%) Bullish outlook remains intact. Expect correction. Strategy – buy GBP/USD on dips. YEN FUTURES USD/JPY Date 02/02/2012 Total Open Interest 178,313 Net Marginal Change 5,346 Marginal Accumulation 10,243 Change in Total OI (%) 6.10 29k Yen futures traders added another 5,346 new transaction. Yen futures seem to be a very popular market for many forex traders. Yen added over 29,000 new transactions since the open interest decline last week. The spot price has been dropping against the dollar. The current trend seems to have a strong basis to continue. As mentioned earlier, USD/JPY is now heading towards all-time lows. Expect BOJ to intervene if necessary. The trading strategy would be to buy USD/JPY close to 75.60 for 150 pips gain. FRANK FUTURES USD/CHF Date 02/02/2012 Total Open Interest 41,807 Net Marginal Change 971 Marginal Accumulation 2,493 Change in Total OI (%) 6.15 We saw fresh 971 transactions added in frank futures. This market increased by 2,493 new contracts since the recent decline. This is a confirmation of the current trend. Strategy – sell USD/CHF on rallies. AUD FUTURES AUD/USD Date 02/02/2012 Total Open Interest 150,836 Net Marginal Change 721 Marginal Accumulation 48,176 Change in Total OI (%) 33.46 Australian dollar remains popular. Forex traders created 721 new futures contracts in this market. AUD/USD spot price, as expected climbed even higher. We now reached an important resistance levels. We can expect a correction from here. Strategy – buy on dips. AUD/USD should gain even more in near future. For the full report please go to futures report |
|
||||
|
The report below shows levels of open interest in currency futures market. The data is based on Chicago Mercantile Exchange Daily Volume and Open Interest Report. Data provided by the report contains Open Interest from the previous trading day.
Interpretation and analysis – GainForexSignal Team Euro FX EUR/USD Date 08/02/2012 Total Open Interest 288,657 Net Marginal Change -8,820 Marginal Accumulation 161,601 Change in Total OI (%) 71.82 Euro open interest declined further by 8,820 transactions in yesterday’s trading. The last trading day that read a similar drop in open interest was on 28th Oct 2011. We now reached a total of 26,693 transactions decrease in this market since 25th Jan 2012. This amounts to 8.6% of the total open interest. The long term downtrend is now over. As expected EUR/USD climbed higher today. Despite all negative moods, euro has not collapsed and it doesn’t look like it is going to collapse any time soon. Given the commercial sentiment and record high in OI, euro should have a massive uptrend in 2012. Strategy – buy EUR/USD on dips. GBP FUTURES GBP/USD Date 07/02/2012 Total Open Interest 195,73 Net Marginal Change 3,316 Marginal Accumulation 6,900 Change in Total OI (%) 3.7 The British Pound futures market added 3,316 new contracts. Cable increased OI by 3.7 % since the last decline and trend reversal at 1.53. The rate that OI gets added this market remains relatively flat. Similarly to euro fx futures, commercial sentiment is in favour of much higher prices in GBP/USD. Strategy – buy GBP/USD on dips. YEN FUTURES USD/JPY Date 08/02/2012 Total Open Interest 178,512 Net Marginal Change -235 Marginal Accumulation 29,677 Change in Total OI (%) 18.49 Yen futures traders dropped marginal 235 transactions. The outlook remains the same. Usd/Jpy price action is pretty slow and unattractive. We expect more ranging trading with no clear direction in the coming days. FRANK FUTURES USD/CHF Date 08/02/2012 Total Open Interest 42,826 Net Marginal Change 721 Marginal Accumulation 3,512 Change in Total OI (%) 8.67 Frank’s open interest was up 721 contracts. Overall outlook remains the same. Swissy added 8.67% of a new OI. Expect further decline in usd/chf. The strategy; sell on rallies. AUD FUTURES AUD/USD Date 08/02/2012 Total Open Interest 148,879 Net Marginal Change 1,177 Marginal Accumulation 46,219 Change in Total OI (%) 32.10 Australian dollar keeps rising against the US dollar. Market added fresh 1,177 contracts. Outlook remains bullish. Expect the correction and buy on dips. AUD open interest tends to drop significant amount in the space of a few days accompanied by sharp decline in price. The first sign of the trend reversal will be a significant decline in OI. Till now bull trend remains intact. For the full report please go to Futures report |
|
||||
|
The report below shows levels of open interest in currency futures market. The data is based on Chicago Mercantile Exchange Daily Volume and Open Interest Report. Data provided by the report contains Open Interest from the previous trading day.
Interpretation and analysis – GainForexSignal Team Euro FX EUR/USD Date 13/02/2012 Total Open Interest 287,933 Net Marginal Change -1,250 Change in Total OI -27,417 Euro dropped further 1,250 transactions on the Friday 10th. The total decrease in Open Interest amounted to 27,417 since 25th Jan 2011. This is the biggest decline in OI in this market since September 2010.We should now see an increase in open interest as stops are triggered and bears cover their short positions. New long contracts will be created. The EUR/USD price managed to keep around the 1.32 levels despite a hopeless situation in Athens. The correction is now expected as daily charts look overbought. We might see a decline towards 1.30 areas before the trend resumes upwards. So far EUR/USD did not give us a clear entry point. Strategy – buy EUR/USD on dips. GBP FUTURES GBP/USD Date 13/02/2012 Total Open Interest 193,335 Net Marginal Change -993 Change in Total OI (%) 2.4 The British Sterling open interest dropped 993 contracts in Friday’s trading. The total OI in this market remains flat. The pound added only 2.4% since the last decline. It reflects a very little interest in the market. Flat open interest is an indication that no new contracts are being created. With the increase in volume we experience the ownership transfers in the market. In this case we assume that old sellers sell Sterling futures to new buyers. If this is a case, we should see higher prices. Strategy – buy GBP/USD on corrections. YEN FUTURES USD/JPY Date 13/02/2012 Total Open Interest 162,676 Net Marginal Change -8,819 Change in Total OI (%) -9.11 The Japanese Yen open interest decreased significantly. Traders closed out 8,819 contracts in this market. Yen has now accumulated 9.11% drop in total open interest. This is a third decline of this size in the last few weeks. With an open interest and price volatility, USD/JPY remains an unattractive market for now. FRANK FUTURES USD/CHF Date 13/02/2012 Total Open Interest 47,480 Net Marginal Change 2,000 Change in Total OI (%) 20.15 The Frank open interest increased by 2000 transactions. Swissy is now gaining some steam as traders add aggressively new contracts. Frank added 20.1% of new open interest since the last decline. We should see further drop in USD/CHF. Strategy – sell on rallies. AUD FUTURES AUD/USD Date 13/02/2012 Total Open Interest 151,128 Net Marginal Change -2,378 Change in Total OI (%) 33.66 Open Interest declined by 2,378 transactions in Friday’s trading. This is the first decline in over a week. Australian dollar added 33% of OI since the last decline. Only three consecutive days with dropping OI will give a reason to enter short positions. The massive commercial short sentiment in this market might suggest that the top is near. For the full report please go to futures report |
|
||||
|
The report below shows levels of open interest in currency futures market. The data is based on Chicago Mercantile Exchange Daily Volume and Open Interest Report. Data provided by the report contains Open Interest from the previous trading day.
Interpretation and analysis – GainForexSignal Team Euro FX EUR/USD Date 14/02/2012 Total Open Interest 286,579 Net Marginal Change -1,354 Change in Total OI -28,771 Euro’s Open Interest kept dropping further. It has declined by another 1,354 transactions. Total decrease in open interest has now reached 28,771 contracts. This amount stands for a total 9.27% of OI in this market. This size of the OI decline ends downtrend in EUR/USD. The EUR/USD spot price has retreated towards 1.3070 area forming good opportunities to enter long positions. Expect further drops in price in the coming days. We should see an increase in Open Interest soon. A rise in OI after the significant decline suggests new long positions being created putting an upward pressure on the price. Strategy – buy on dips. GBP FUTURES GBP/USD Date 14/02/2012 Total Open Interest 194,950 Net Marginal Change 1,615 Change in Total OI (%) 3.2 The British Pond traders added 1,615 new transactions into Sterling futures market. Pound added 3.2% since the last decline. Sterling futures remain flat. The spot price against the dollar has now corrected into 1.5650. Further drops are expected in the coming sessions. Strategy – buy on corrections. Must see additional movement in the new open interest for the current trend to gain momentum. YEN FUTURES USD/JPY Date 14/02/2012 Total Open Interest 162,112 Net Marginal Change -564 Change in Total OI (%) -9.32 The Japanese Yen open interest decreased by another 564 contracts. This is a 5th consecutive day with dropping open interest in yen futures. The total decline amounted to 16,635 transactions. This is over 10% of the total open interest in Yen futures. The spot price USD/JPY spiked significantly in today’s trading. Given the volatility of the price action and sentiment, yen remains unattractive. FRANK FUTURES USD/CHF Date 14/02/2012 Total Open Interest 48,191 Net Marginal Change 711 Change in Total OI (%) 21.91 The Frank open interest added another 711 contracts. Frank seems to be getting some attention here. Traders creating the new transactions in futures market show the overall attractiveness between the traders. Frank pot price against the dollar rallied in today’s trading with the rest of the market. We expect a further decline in USD/CHF. Strategy – sell on rallies. AUD FUTURES AUD/USD Date 14/02/2012 Total Open Interest 153,828 Net Marginal Change 2,700 Change in Total OI (%) 35.54 Futures traders added 2,700 new contracts in the Australian dollar market. The open interest remains strong. Given the fact the commercial traders are strongly short in Australian dollar futures; we might see the correction to the downside. Only 10% drop in OI will give a reason to enter short positions. For the full report please go to Currency futures report |
|
||||
|
The report below shows levels of open interest in currency futures market. The data is based on Chicago Mercantile Exchange Daily Volume and Open Interest Report. Data provided by the report contains Open Interest from the previous trading day.
Interpretation and analysis – GainForexSignal Team Euro FX EUR/USD Date 15/02/2012 Total Open Interest 291,060 Net Marginal Change 4,481 Change in Total OI -24,290 Open Interest increased today for the first time since 9th February. The total OI accounted for 291,060 transactions. It is too early to say if drop in now over. Euro’s OI declined almost 11% in the last two week for trading. We should now see fresh contracts being created in futures market. The dropping OI indicates massive short covering among traders. Most likely traders buy to liquidate their short positions as EUR/USD climbed towards 1.33 area. We should now see more new futures contracts coming into this market. While decrease in OI most likely ended midterm downtrend, we now anticipate higher prices in EUR/USD. The spot price against the Euro declined in today’s trading. This shall give an opportunity to enter long positions around 1.30. Caution – more correction possible in the coming days before the trend resumes. GBP FUTURES GBP/USD Date 15/02/2012 Total Open Interest 192,071 Net Marginal Change -2,879 Change in Total OI (%) 1.7 The British Sterling futures traders liquidated further 2,879 transactions in the last session. Sterling’s open interest remains flat. It has added marginal 1.7% since the last decline. The total decrease remains in the negative territory and ranges around -7% of the total open interest. Given a strong correlation between GBP and EUR against the Dollar, we should see higher prices in GBP/USD in the coming sessions. Must see a momentum in fresh open interest in order to support new uptrend. YEN FUTURES USD/JPY Date 15/02/2012 Total Open Interest 153,683 Net Marginal Change -8,429 Change in Total OI (%) -14.04 The Japanese Yen open interest decreased by another massive 8,429 transactions. This is extraordinary single drop. It accounts for over 5% of the total OI. The current decline has now reached 14%. It is a very high reading for Yen futures market. Given the volatile price action USD/JPY, more range trading expected. As the recent OI decrease suggests the end of the downtrend USD/JPY, expect higher prices in this market. FRANK FUTURES USD/CHF Date 15/02/2012 Total Open Interest 48,092 Net Marginal Change -99 Change in Total OI (%) 21.66 The Frank's open interest declined by 99 contracts. This is only marginal change and does not affect the current outlook. Open interest in frank’s futures has been steady growing. It has increased by 21.66% since the last decline. Expect higher prices of Frank’s futures and lower against the dollar. Strategy – sell USD/CHF on rallies. AUD FUTURES AUD/USD Date 15/02/2012 Total Open Interest 151,885 Net Marginal Change -1,943 Change in Total OI (%) 34.19 Futures traders decreased their transactions by 1,943. The Australian dollar added a total of 34.19% of OI since the last decline on 16th Dec 2011. The spot price against the US dollar has been rising since. As seen on the chart, OI is clearly losing the strong momentum. Less new contracts being created indicated less interest in the market. Only a significant drop in OI will suggest the change in trend. For bulls it might be a good time to cash the profits and wait to see how this one folds. |
|
||||
|
The report below shows levels of open interest in currency futures market. The data is based on Chicago Mercantile Exchange Daily Volume and Open Interest Report. Data provided by the report contains Open Interest from the previous trading day.
Interpretation and analysis – GainForexSignal Team Euro FX EUR/USD Date 16/02/2012 Total Open Interest 299,085 Net Marginal Change 8,025 Change in Total OI -5.24% Open Interest increased today by substantial 8,025 transactions. This is second consecutive increase in open interest in Euro futures. As expected the EUR/USD climbed from the 1.30 area towards the 1.3170 in today’s trading. We have now entered 0.33% of the long position @ 1.3030. An Increase in OI creates new futures transactions and new money is flowing into the market. Today we notice a drop in Regular Trading Hours Volume accompanied with the increase in OI. Higher OI supports current trend, lower volume indicated smaller amount of transaction being added on. The strategy reminds the same – buy EUR/USD on dips. Higher OI from now on will confirm long term bull market. GBP FUTURES GBP/USD Date 16/02/2012 Total Open Interest 187,492 Net Marginal Change -4,579 Change in Total OI (%) -0.7 The British Sterling futures decreased the amount of outstanding positions by 4,579. This is a second consecutive day with the negative open interest in the British Sterling futures. The total decline in OI amounts for over 9% and has stayed negative for a while now. Given the rising prices in GBP/USD and the decline ended long term bear trend, we anticipate higher prices in GBP/USD in the coming sessions. Strategy – buy GBP/USD on dips. YEN FUTURES USD/JPY Date 16/02/2012 Total Open Interest 154,081 Net Marginal Change 398 Change in Total OI (%) -13.82 The Japanese Yen open interest added a marginal sum of 398 in yesterday’s trading. A massive decline in open interest has been taking place for few weeks now. It seems to be very volatile recently. Today the USD/JPY spiked to the upside. If the major decrease in open interest ends the midterm downtrend, we should see pressure building on the spot sending USD/JPY much higher. FRANK FUTURES USD/CHF Date 16/02/2012 Total Open Interest 49,106 Net Marginal Change 1,014 Change in Total OI (%) 24.17 Frank’s futures added 1,014 new transactions. Swissy seems to be attracting some new traders. It has built over 24% of the total open interest since the last decline. The outlook reminds the same. Sell USD/CHF on rallies. USD/CHF is about to break the ascending support on daily chart. This could provide the opportunity to enter short positions. Look for an update on the positions. AUD FUTURES AUD/USD Date 16/02/2012 Total Open Interest 152,040 Net Marginal Change 155 Change in Total OI (%) 34.30 An Australian dollar future has been flat. Traders created only 155 new positions in this market. Aud open interest is definitely fading. It has added 34.30% since the last major decline. As it is difficult to gauge if this amount would be substantial to weight on the trend, we consider the slower pace in interest as a signal to close any long positions and wait to see what happens next. |
|
||||
|
The report below shows levels of open interest in currency futures market. The data is based on Chicago Mercantile Exchange Daily Volume and Open Interest Report. Data provided by the report contains Open Interest from the previous trading day.
Interpretation and analysis – GainForexSignal Team Euro FX EUR/USD Date 17/02/2012 Total Open Interest 294,084 Net Marginal Change -5,001 Change in Total OI (%) -6.85 An Open Interest dropped today by 5,001 transactions. The total OI in the Euro futures stands at 294,084 contracts. Today we notice falling open interest and increasing regular trading hours (RTH)volume. This indicates that futures traders are liquidating their existing contracts. Normally it reflects profit taking by both buyers and sellers. As we do not know what the sentiment is on daily basis is, we expect more new contracts being created in this market. More interest and fresh transactions should put upwards pressure on the spot price. Open interest has recovered slightly since the last drop. It is unlikely that it would drop again after only marginal increase. Historically OI tends to add at least 20% at the time. Strategy remains intact. GBP FUTURES GBP/USD Date 17/02/2012 Total Open Interest 189,758 Net Marginal Change 2,266 Change in Total OI (%) 0.5 The British Sterling futures added 2,266 fresh transactions. Open interest remains flat to negative in this market. The GBP/USD spot price managed to climb in today’s trading. It looks like it is going to close the day in positive territory. Need to see more new contracts being created in order to support the new, bullish movement. Expect correction. Strategy – buy on dips. YEN FUTURES USD/JPY Date 17/02/2012 Total Open Interest 150,214 Net Marginal Change -3,867 Change in Total OI (%) -15.98 The Japanese Yen futures OI declined by substantial 3,867 transactions. Yen lost overall 15.98% of the total open interest in the last ten trading sessions. The spot price has rallied significantly. Dropping open interest on rising prices suggests massive short covering. The 16% decline in OI might end the grand down trend on USD/JPY. Given the commercial sentiment, we should see higher or ranging prices from now on. FRANK FUTURES USD/CHF Date 17/02/2012 Total Open Interest 49,566 Net Marginal Change 460 Change in Total OI (%) 25.30 Frank’s futures added another 460 new contracts. Swissy seems to be popular among the futures traders. Frank saw 25.30% increase in OI since the last decline. Rising OI shows the appetite for the security. We anticipate lower prices in USD/CHF market in the coming days/weeks. AUD FUTURES AUD/USD Date 17/02/2012 Total Open Interest 153,623 Net Marginal Change 1,583 Change in Total OI (%) 35.40 An Australian dollar futures added 1,583 new transactions. The Aud dollar is still popular buy in the market. As mentioned earlier, OI is now slightly getting flat. As the spot price against the US dollar losing a steam too, we expect a correction. A correction will be considered with the falling price and strong OI. Only a significant drop in OI will give a reason for a deeper decline in price. |
![]() |
| Bookmarks |
| Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 2 (0 members and 2 guests) | |
| Thread Tools | |
| Display Modes | |
|
|
Similar Threads
|
||||
| Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
| 30/01/2012 Daily Currency Futures and Open Interest Report | gfs | Fundamental Analysis | 2 | 21st February 2012 23:30 |
| 25/01/2012 Daily Currency Futures and Open Interest Report | gfs | Fundamental Analysis | 0 | 25th January 2012 20:39 |
| 23/01/2012 Daily Currency Futures and Open Interest Report | gfs | Fundamental Analysis | 1 | 24th January 2012 21:45 |
| 13/01/2012 Daily Currency Futures and Open Interest Report | gfs | Technical Analysis | 0 | 13th January 2012 21:58 |