30/01/2012 Daily Currency Futures and Open Interest Report

[gfs]

The report below shows levels of open interest in currency futures market. The data is based on Chicago Mercantile Exchange Daily Volume and Open Interest Report. Data provided by the report contains Open Interest from the previous trading day.
Interpretation and analysis – GainForexSignal Team


Euro FX
EUR/USD

Date 30/01/2012
Total Open Interest 301,752
Net Marginal Change -4,663
Marginal Accumulation 174,696
Change in Total OI (%) 77.64

In Friday’s trading open interest dropped again. We now have a third consecutive day in declining open interest in Euro FX futures. On Friday we lost 4,663 transactions. The total decrease in open interest amounted to 13,598 contracts. This is a 4.5% of the total market. The last drop of this size took place on the 24-28 October 2011; EUR/USD plunged from 1.42 to 1.25.Our bullish outlook remains intact. As expected the spot price retraced 100 points today. The downside is now limited. The price is expected to range and form a pattern before the next advance upward. There is a possibility that we might see a deeper correction to form a double bottom .There is a correlation between decline in open interest and the options delivery in Euro market. It seems that next week we have both; dropping OI and Options rollover. Look out for long signals next week. Strategy – buy EUR/USD on dips.

GBP FUTURES
GBP/USD
Date 30/01/2012
Total Open Interest 191,914
Net Marginal Change 2,961
Marginal Accumulation -22,876
Change in Total OI (%) -12.1

The British Pound futures market added 2,961 new contracts. The British Pound is now adding fresh money after the significant decline last week. This market dropped over 12% of OI, bringing the major, recent downtrend to its end. This should be a sign of short covering and new transactions being created in cable futures. Given the level of sentiment from COT report, we assume that these are new long positions coming in. As predicted, cable advanced higher. The strategy is to buy on dips. GBP/USD is expected to range and correct further before the trend resumes.


YEN FUTURES
USD/JPY
Date 30/01/2012
Total Open Interest 160,477
Net Marginal Change 11,642
Marginal Accumulation -7,593
Change in Total OI (%) -4.52

Yen futures seem to be unpredictable this week. The very interesting behaviour is noted as traders jump in and out of the yen futures. On Friday we saw whooping 11,642 new contracts. Few days earlier (24th) they added similar amount. The spot price spiked over 200pips and come back right to the initial levels or lower. USD/JPY broke through the support levels today. At this stage we recommend to stay aside and see how it is going to unfold. There is a possibility of BOJ intervention to weaken the yen.

FRANK FUTURES
USD/CHF
Date 30/01/2012
Total Open Interest 40,279
Net Marginal Change 37
Marginal Accumulation 965
Change in Total OI (%) 2.38

Frank futures added only 37 new transactions. We have recognised the top of this market last week. Since then, frank’s open interest has been dropping of remained flat. We expect the correction towards 0.9350 in the coming sessions. The strategy - sell USD/CHF on rallies

AUD FUTURES
AUD/USD
Date 30/01/2012
Total Open Interest 151,218
Net Marginal Change 3,606
Marginal Accumulation 48,558
Change in Total OI (%) 33.73

Australian dollar is the favourite market for traders. They added another 3,606 new positions. Aud futures OI has been climbing for a while now. The rate of change of OI remains strong. We should see even higher prices in AUD/USD spot.

For the full report with graphs please go to
Futures report

[Managed_Forex]

China was supposed to be a big seller of AUD/USD @ 1.0680. Despite the interest rate differential AUD => USD, one should consider that Australia is highly dependent on China´s growth prospects.

But as we all know, Chinese growth is slowing down.

[gfs]

Originally Posted by Managed_Forex

China was supposed to be a big seller of AUD/USD @ 1.0680. Despite the interest rate differential AUD => USD, one should consider that Australia is highly dependent on China´s growth prospects.

But as we all know, Chinese growth is slowing down.

AUD FUTURES AUD/USD
Date 21/02/2012
Total Open Interest 150,578
Net Marginal Change -3,045

An Australian dollar futures OI declined by substantial 3,045 contracts. Aud OI has been flattening for a week now. The rate that traders add new transactions is definitely fading. Australian dollar tend to drop significant amount of an open interest in only few sessions. Given the fact that commercials traders are extremely short in Aud futures, we might see a correction in AUD/USD spot price. The fading OI is a signal that less new money is going into AUD futures market. We have placed the short positions accordingly. For an update please refer to our forex signal page.