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Posts Tagged ‘EUR/USD’

Forex Technical Analysis for 05/12—05/16 Week

Monday, May 12th, 2008

EUR/USD trend: hold.
GBP/USD trend: sell.
USD/JPY trend: hold.
EUR/JPY trend: hold.

Floor Pivot Points
Pair 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res
EUR/USD 1.5001 1.5142 1.5311 1.5452 1.5621 1.5762 1.5931
GBP/USD 1.9078 1.9268 1.9403 1.9593 1.9728 1.9918 2.0053
USD/JPY 98.74 100.68 101.74 103.68 104.74 106.68 107.74
EUR/JPY 153.02 155.81 157.49 160.28 161.96 164.75 166.43

Woodie’s Pivot Points
Pair 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res
EUR/USD 1.5149 1.5324 1.5459 1.5634 1.5769
GBP/USD 1.9268 1.9403 1.9593 1.9728 1.9918
USD/JPY 100.68 101.74 103.68 104.74 106.68
EUR/JPY 155.81 157.49 160.28 161.96 164.75

Camarilla Pivot Points
Pair 4th Sup 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res 4th Res
EUR/USD 1.5309 1.5394 1.5422 1.5451 1.5507 1.5536 1.5564 1.5650
GBP/USD 1.9358 1.9448 1.9477 1.9507 1.9567 1.9597 1.9626 1.9716
USD/JPY 101.16 101.99 102.26 102.54 103.09 103.36 103.64 104.46
EUR/JPY 156.71 157.94 158.35 158.76 159.58 159.99 160.40 161.63

Tom DeMark’s Pivot Points
Pair EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY
Resistance 1.5692 1.9823 104.21 161.12
Support 1.5382 1.9498 101.21 156.65

Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Pairs EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY
100.0% 1.5594 1.9784 105.61 163.07
61.8% 1.5476 1.9660 104.46 161.36
50.0% 1.5439 1.9622 104.11 160.83
38.2% 1.5402 1.9583 103.76 160.31
23.6% 1.5357 1.9536 103.32 159.65
0.0% 1.5284 1.9459 102.61 158.60

EUR/USD Falls Today as Fundamentals Improve, Less Rate Cuts Expected

Wednesday, May 7th, 2008

EUR/USD fell today significantly, recovering from its two-day fall that was observed this week. It went down by more than 0.8% today — from 1.5532 to 1.5380. Good fundamental indicators from U.S. helped dollar to strengthen on Forex.

Productivity in business sector grew up in first quarter of 2008 according to a preliminary report that was released today. Annual rate of the seasonally adjusted productivity growth was 1.9% in Q1 — above 1.5% forecasted by market analysts.

Crude oil inventories last week increased by 5.7 million barrels (quite a lot compared to recent increases) and are now in the middle of the average range for this time of the year.

Forex Technical Analysis for 05/05—05/09 Week

Saturday, May 3rd, 2008

EUR/USD trend: sell.
GBP/USD trend: hold.
USD/JPY trend: buy.
EUR/JPY trend: buy.

Floor Pivot Points
Pair 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res
EUR/USD 1.4957 1.5159 1.5290 1.5492 1.5623 1.5825 1.5956
GBP/USD 1.9229 1.9426 1.9571 1.9768 1.9913 2.0110 2.0255
USD/JPY 101.35 102.29 103.83 104.77 106.31 107.25 108.79
EUR/JPY 157.52 159.06 160.79 162.33 164.06 165.60 167.33

Woodie’s Pivot Points
Pair 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res
EUR/USD 1.5141 1.5256 1.5474 1.5589 1.5807
GBP/USD 1.9426 1.9571 1.9768 1.9913 2.0110
USD/JPY 102.29 103.83 104.77 106.31 107.25
EUR/JPY 159.06 160.79 162.33 164.06 165.60

Camarilla Pivot Points
Pair 4th Sup 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res 4th Res
EUR/USD 1.5239 1.5330 1.5361 1.5391 1.5453 1.5483 1.5514 1.5605
GBP/USD 1.9528 1.9622 1.9653 1.9685 1.9747 1.9779 1.9810 1.9904
USD/JPY 104.02 104.70 104.93 105.15 105.61 105.83 106.06 106.74
EUR/JPY 160.72 161.62 161.92 162.22 162.82 163.12 163.42 164.32

Tom DeMark’s Pivot Points
Pair EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY
Resistance 1.5558 1.9841 106.78 164.83
Support 1.5225 1.9499 104.30 161.56

Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Pairs EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY
100.0% 1.5693 1.9965 105.70 163.87
61.8% 1.5566 1.9834 104.75 162.62
50.0% 1.5526 1.9794 104.46 162.24
38.2% 1.5487 1.9754 104.17 161.85
23.6% 1.5439 1.9704 103.81 161.37
0.0% 1.5360 1.9623 103.22 160.60

EUR/USD at Monthly Low on Nonfarm Payrolls

Friday, May 2nd, 2008

EUR/USD broke down through 1.5400 mark today and reached the minimum level since the 24th of March as the employment fundamentals showed some improvement compared to the March results. Dollar managed to strengthen also against pound and yen even with objectively bad macroeconomic results.

Nonfarm payrolls — one of the main indicators of the U.S. economy’s health decreased 20k in April. That’s a lot better than the 80k drop in March and 75k drop that was forecasted for April. Still, the negative reading in payrolls is a clear sign of the recession danger. Unemployment rate was reported at 5% — below 5.1% in March and 5.2% expected for this month, but that indicator usually isn’t very accurate.

Factory orders jumped up significantly in March — they rose 1.4%, after a 1.3% decrease in February.

Forex Technical Analysis for 04/28—05/02 Week

Saturday, April 26th, 2008

EUR/USD trend: sell.
GBP/USD trend: hold.
USD/JPY trend: buy.
EUR/JPY trend: sell.

Floor Pivot Points
Pair 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res
EUR/USD 1.4986 1.5271 1.5450 1.5735 1.5914 1.6199 1.6378
GBP/USD 1.9331 1.9504 1.9679 1.9852 2.0027 2.0200 2.0375
USD/JPY 101.00 101.84 103.13 103.97 105.26 106.10 107.39
EUR/JPY 159.93 161.30 162.23 163.60 164.53 165.90 166.83

Woodie’s Pivot Points
Pair 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res
EUR/USD 1.5245 1.5398 1.5709 1.5862 1.6173
GBP/USD 1.9504 1.9679 1.9852 2.0027 2.0200
USD/JPY 101.84 103.13 103.97 105.26 106.10
EUR/JPY 161.30 162.23 163.60 164.53 165.90

Camarilla Pivot Points
Pair 4th Sup 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res 4th Res
EUR/USD 1.5375 1.5502 1.5545 1.5587 1.5673 1.5715 1.5758 1.5885
GBP/USD 1.9663 1.9758 1.9790 1.9822 1.9886 1.9918 1.9950 2.0045
USD/JPY 103.25 103.83 104.03 104.22 104.62 104.81 105.01 105.59
EUR/JPY 161.90 162.54 162.75 162.96 163.38 163.59 163.80 164.44

Tom DeMark’s Pivot Points
Pair EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY
Resistance 1.6057 2.0114 104.62 165.22
Support 1.5593 1.9766 102.49 162.92

Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Pairs EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY
100.0% 1.6019 2.0025 104.81 164.96
61.8% 1.5842 1.9892 104.00 164.08
50.0% 1.5787 1.9851 103.75 163.81
38.2% 1.5732 1.9810 103.49 163.54
23.6% 1.5665 1.9759 103.18 163.20
0.0% 1.5555 1.9677 102.68 162.66

EUR/USD Falls Lowest since April 14

Thursday, April 24th, 2008

EUR/USD slid to its minimum value since April 14 today on Forex — 1.5675, as the investors started to consider the U.S. currency to be oversold and the further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve — unlikely. Fundamental data that was released today in U.S. was mostly disappointing, but that didn’t help the euro to grow against the dollar.

Initial jobless claims dropped 33k last week — from 375k (revised up from 372k) to 342k, which is below the expected 375k.

Durable goods orders decreased 0.3% in March, while February’s change was revised from -1.5% to -0.9%. The market analysts expected the orders amount not to change in March.

New home sales in United States dropped to 526k in March (annual rate) from 575k in February (revised down from 590k) — below 580k forecast.

Forex Technical Analysis for 04/21—04/25 Week

Saturday, April 19th, 2008

EUR/USD trend: buy.
GBP/USD trend: sell.
USD/JPY trend: buy.
EUR/JPY trend: buy.

Floor Pivot Points
Pair 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res
EUR/USD 1.5352 1.5510 1.5664 1.5822 1.5976 1.6134 1.6288
GBP/USD 1.9325 1.9464 1.9721 1.9860 2.0117 2.0256 2.0513
USD/JPY 96.75 98.53 101.09 102.87 105.43 107.21 109.77
EUR/JPY 153.50 155.88 159.91 162.29 166.32 168.70 172.73

Woodie’s Pivot Points
Pair 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res
EUR/USD 1.5509 1.5661 1.5821 1.5973 1.6133
GBP/USD 1.9464 1.9721 1.9860 2.0117 2.0256
USD/JPY 98.53 101.09 102.87 105.43 107.21
EUR/JPY 155.88 159.91 162.29 166.32 168.70

Camarilla Pivot Points
Pair 4th Sup 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res 4th Res
EUR/USD 1.5645 1.5731 1.5760 1.5788 1.5846 1.5874 1.5903 1.5989
GBP/USD 1.9761 1.9870 1.9906 1.9943 2.0015 2.0052 2.0088 2.0197
USD/JPY 101.27 102.47 102.86 103.26 104.06 104.46 104.85 106.05
EUR/JPY 160.42 162.19 162.77 163.36 164.54 165.13 165.71 167.48

Tom DeMark’s Pivot Points
Pair EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY
Resistance 1.6055 2.0186 104.15 164.30
Support 1.5743 1.9790 99.81 157.89

Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Pairs EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY
100.0% 1.5981 1.9998 104.64 164.66
61.8% 1.5862 1.9847 102.98 162.21
50.0% 1.5825 1.9800 102.47 161.45
38.2% 1.5788 1.9753 101.96 160.70
23.6% 1.5743 1.9695 101.32 159.76
0.0% 1.5669 1.9602 100.30 158.25

EUR/USD Trade Idea for the Next Week

Sunday, April 13th, 2008

The current situation on the EUR/USD daily chart seems like a good preparation for the long position. If you look at the picture below you’ll see three highs almost at the same level — 1.5902 on March 17, 1.5896 on March 31 and 1.5913 on April 10. The corresponding lows of these highs conclude an uptrend. Altogether they form an ascending triangle, which is the known continuation pattern:

EUR/USD Ascending Triangle Pattern

Somewhere next week I expect the upper horizontal line to be broken and EUR/USD will be ready to head for the new absolute maximum near 1.6300-1.6500. I will probably set up a stop buy order at 1.5914 with a stop-loss near 1.5700 and target at 1.6350 to check this idea. But it will probably take a week or two to break the support level.

Forex Technical Analysis for 04/14—04/18 Week

Saturday, April 12th, 2008

EUR/USD trend: buy.
GBP/USD trend: sell.
USD/JPY trend: sell.
EUR/JPY trend: hold.

Floor Pivot Points
Pair 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res
EUR/USD 1.5368 1.5498 1.5652 1.5782 1.5936 1.6066 1.6220
GBP/USD 1.9274 1.9462 1.9575 1.9763 1.9876 2.0064 2.0177
USD/JPY 96.91 98.46 99.74 101.29 102.57 104.12 105.40
EUR/JPY 155.48 157.14 158.40 160.06 161.32 162.98 164.24

Woodie’s Pivot Points
Pair 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res
EUR/USD 1.5504 1.5665 1.5788 1.5949 1.6072
GBP/USD 1.9462 1.9575 1.9763 1.9876 2.0064
USD/JPY 98.46 99.74 101.29 102.57 104.12
EUR/JPY 157.14 158.40 160.06 161.32 162.98

Camarilla Pivot Points
Pair 4th Sup 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res 4th Res
EUR/USD 1.5651 1.5729 1.5755 1.5781 1.5833 1.5859 1.5885 1.5963
GBP/USD 1.9523 1.9606 1.9634 1.9661 1.9717 1.9744 1.9772 1.9855
USD/JPY 99.45 100.23 100.49 100.75 101.27 101.53 101.79 102.57
EUR/JPY 158.05 158.86 159.12 159.39 159.93 160.20 160.46 161.27

Tom DeMark’s Pivot Points
Pair EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY
Resistance 1.6001 1.9970 101.93 162.15
Support 1.5717 1.9669 99.10 159.23

Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Pairs EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY
100.0% 1.5911 1.9950 102.85 161.72
61.8% 1.5803 1.9835 101.77 160.60
50.0% 1.5769 1.9800 101.44 160.26
38.2% 1.5735 1.9764 101.10 159.92
23.6% 1.5694 1.9720 100.69 159.49
0.0% 1.5627 1.9649 100.02 158.80

USD Rises on Better Fundamentals

Thursday, April 10th, 2008

EUR/USD reached a new record high level at 1.5913 today, but after some positive fundamental data was released in U.S. the currency pair went down, as the dollar started to regain strength on the Forex market. ECB’s decision to hold the interest rates at 4% also improved dollar’s positions on the market.

Initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell by 53k the last week — from the revised 410k value to 357k. A fall to 383k has been expected by the market analysts.

February U.S. trade balance deficit came out to be far worse than the majority of the investors expected — $62.3 billion, up from January’s $58.2 billion. It was expected to go down to $57.4 billion.

Treasury budget deficit was lower than the expected $70.3 billion value in March. It was $48.1 billion — better than the last year’s $96.3 billion deficit for the same month.



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